Prince Edward County 2016 Real Estate Market Review
Prince Edward County 2016 Real Estate Market Review Overall During 2016 real estate in Prince Edward County moved firmly into seller’s market territory, with demand significantly outstripping supply. This is a major change from the conditions which have prevailed since the economic downturn of 2008, when there was a surplus of supply over demand, with most homes sitting on the market for a long time before selling. Five hundred and fifty-seven detached, single-family homes sold during 2016, a record number which represented a 17% increase from the year before.
Detached Home Sales 600 557
500 476 423
400 300
338
355
2011
2012
378
200 100 2013
2014
2015
2016
Twenty-eight homes sold in December, a 40% increase from the average sales for the 3 previous years. While overall sales for 2016 followed the County’s traditional pattern with a peak during the summer months, monthly sales were consistently above the 2013-15 average throughout the year. At the same time as sales grew, listings plummeted during 2016, reaching a six-year low at the end of December.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage Not intended to solicit anyone under Buyer Representation Agreement with another brokerage.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
2
Homes Listed (Inventory) 400 300 268
200
207
219
202
178
100
128
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Months of inventory is a widely-used measure of the balance between supply (number of homes listed at end of month) and demand (sales for the month). The imbalance of supply and demand during 2016 was clearly reflected in the months of inventory available for sale, with only 5 months of inventory available at the end of December last year, compared with an average of 11 months for the three preceding years.
Months of Inventory 18 16 14 12 11
10 8 6 4
5
2 0
Avg. 2011-15
2016
Whereas County homes used to take a much longer time to sell, by the end of December 2016 forty-six percent of homes were selling in 30 days or less, compared with an average of 18% during the preceding 3 years.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
3
Homes Selling in A Month or Less 60% 50%
46%
40% 30% 20%
18%
10% 0%
Average 2011-15
2016
The selling-to-listing price ratio is a traditional measure which reflects the supply demand balance. When demand exceeds supply, sellers could get closer to their listing prices compared to the average during the preceding 3 years.
Selling to Listing Price 98% 97% 95.9%
96% 95%
95.0%
94% 93%
2016
Average 2013-15
In another more intuitive measure of the supply/demand imbalance during 2016, an increasing percentage of homes sold at or over listing price.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
4
% Homes Selling For Listing Price or Over 40%
30%
29%
20%
10% 7%
0%
2016
Average 2013-15
Finally, the average price for a house sold during 2016 was 14% higher than during the previous year (with the caveat that the average house price is an unreliable measure of appreciation because it reflects any change in product mix of homes sold as well as any increase/decrease in the value of real estate).
Average Price By Year 400,000 350,000
366,434
300,000
320,634 300,122
300,438
2011
2012
287,542
286,231
2013
2014
250,000 200,000
2015
2016
Housing Affordability As a broad generalization, most homes selling for under $300,000 are sold to residents: there are few jobs in the County which will carry the mortgage on a more expensive home. Conversely, most homes selling for more than $300,000 are sold to new residents coming mainly from the GTA. The number of higher priced homes selling for over $300,000 has increased rapidly, growing 124% between 2011 and 2016. However, the number of more affordable homes selling for under $300,000 has also increased steadily during the same period, though at a much slower rate of 29%.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
5
Sales By Price Segment 285
300 250 200 150 100
272
211 Under $300K 127 Over $300K
50 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Results by Ward There were noticeable differences in the way real estate behaved in the different wards during 2016. As one would expect, the two wards with the largest populations also had the largest number of sales during 2016, and the two smallest wards had the least sales.
2016 Sales By Ward 125 100 75 50 25 -
However, the year-on-year change in sales between 2015 and 2016 saw the largest gains in Picton and North Marysburgh and a decrease in sales in Sophiasburgh.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
6
Sales Increase/Decrease: 2015 to 2016 75% 51%
50%
37%
25%
19%
11%
11%
12%
20%
17% 0%
0% -20%
-25% -50%
The largest number of homes over $300,000 were sold in Ameliasburgh, with Hallowell and Picton in a distant second and third respectively.
2016 Sales Over $300K By Ward 120 95
90
70 45 20
39
38
29
21
20
16
16
13 3
(5)
On the other hand, the disparity between wards in terms of the number of homes selling for under $300,000 was much smaller.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
7
2016 Sales Under $300K By Ward 100
75 60 50
25
43
41
39 20
19
19
14
9
8
-
In summary, 2016 represented a sea change in County real estate, with demand exceeding supply for the first time in a decade. It remains to be seen whether the demand is structural (driven by the ever-growing number of retirees in the GTA) or transitory (driven by the recent run up in property values in the GTA).
Treat Hull, Broker of Record Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage January 9th, 2017
Detached Home Sales 600 557
500 476 423
400 300
338
355
2011
2012
378
200 100 2013
2014
2015
2016
Twenty-eight homes sold in December, a 40% increase from the average sales for the 3 previous years. While overall sales for 2016 followed the County’s traditional pattern with a peak during the summer months, monthly sales were consistently above the 2013-15 average throughout the year. At the same time as sales grew, listings plummeted during 2016, reaching a six-year low at the end of December.
© 2017 Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage Not intended to solicit anyone under Buyer Representation Agreement with another brokerage.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
2
Homes Listed (Inventory) 400 300 268
200
207
219
202
178
100
128
0 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Months of inventory is a widely-used measure of the balance between supply (number of homes listed at end of month) and demand (sales for the month). The imbalance of supply and demand during 2016 was clearly reflected in the months of inventory available for sale, with only 5 months of inventory available at the end of December last year, compared with an average of 11 months for the three preceding years.
Months of Inventory 18 16 14 12 11
10 8 6 4
5
2 0
Avg. 2011-15
2016
Whereas County homes used to take a much longer time to sell, by the end of December 2016 forty-six percent of homes were selling in 30 days or less, compared with an average of 18% during the preceding 3 years.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
3
Homes Selling in A Month or Less 60% 50%
46%
40% 30% 20%
18%
10% 0%
Average 2011-15
2016
The selling-to-listing price ratio is a traditional measure which reflects the supply demand balance. When demand exceeds supply, sellers could get closer to their listing prices compared to the average during the preceding 3 years.
Selling to Listing Price 98% 97% 95.9%
96% 95%
95.0%
94% 93%
2016
Average 2013-15
In another more intuitive measure of the supply/demand imbalance during 2016, an increasing percentage of homes sold at or over listing price.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
4
% Homes Selling For Listing Price or Over 40%
30%
29%
20%
10% 7%
0%
2016
Average 2013-15
Finally, the average price for a house sold during 2016 was 14% higher than during the previous year (with the caveat that the average house price is an unreliable measure of appreciation because it reflects any change in product mix of homes sold as well as any increase/decrease in the value of real estate).
Average Price By Year 400,000 350,000
366,434
300,000
320,634 300,122
300,438
2011
2012
287,542
286,231
2013
2014
250,000 200,000
2015
2016
Housing Affordability As a broad generalization, most homes selling for under $300,000 are sold to residents: there are few jobs in the County which will carry the mortgage on a more expensive home. Conversely, most homes selling for more than $300,000 are sold to new residents coming mainly from the GTA. The number of higher priced homes selling for over $300,000 has increased rapidly, growing 124% between 2011 and 2016. However, the number of more affordable homes selling for under $300,000 has also increased steadily during the same period, though at a much slower rate of 29%.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
5
Sales By Price Segment 285
300 250 200 150 100
272
211 Under $300K 127 Over $300K
50 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Results by Ward There were noticeable differences in the way real estate behaved in the different wards during 2016. As one would expect, the two wards with the largest populations also had the largest number of sales during 2016, and the two smallest wards had the least sales.
2016 Sales By Ward 125 100 75 50 25 -
However, the year-on-year change in sales between 2015 and 2016 saw the largest gains in Picton and North Marysburgh and a decrease in sales in Sophiasburgh.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
6
Sales Increase/Decrease: 2015 to 2016 75% 51%
50%
37%
25%
19%
11%
11%
12%
20%
17% 0%
0% -20%
-25% -50%
The largest number of homes over $300,000 were sold in Ameliasburgh, with Hallowell and Picton in a distant second and third respectively.
2016 Sales Over $300K By Ward 120 95
90
70 45 20
39
38
29
21
20
16
16
13 3
(5)
On the other hand, the disparity between wards in terms of the number of homes selling for under $300,000 was much smaller.
Prince Edward County
2016 Real Estate Market Review
7
2016 Sales Under $300K By Ward 100
75 60 50
25
43
41
39 20
19
19
14
9
8
-
In summary, 2016 represented a sea change in County real estate, with demand exceeding supply for the first time in a decade. It remains to be seen whether the demand is structural (driven by the ever-growing number of retirees in the GTA) or transitory (driven by the recent run up in property values in the GTA).
Treat Hull, Broker of Record Treat Hull & Associates Ltd., Brokerage January 9th, 2017
