Products of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
China in Globalization = Dynamism + Mutual Dependence 全球化的中国=活力+相互依存
米歇尔-亨利.布歇 March 20, 2009
Suzhou University Business School Michel Henry Bouchet Director-Global Finance Center ® www.globalfinance.org
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
China in Globalization: Dynamism and Mutual Dependence 全球化的中国：充满活力，相互依存 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Toward global economic leadership全球经济领导力 China’s new competitiveness中国新的竞争力 Globalization and crisis spill-over effect全球化与危机溢 出效应 Socio-economic challenges社会经济中的挑战 Economic recovery program经济恢复计划 The way forward: innovation, productivity and sustainable development方法：创新、生产力与可持续发展
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
BRICs’ « catch up process » 金砖四国的《赶超他国进程》
Goldman Sachs 2007
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
World population 2008 & 2025 2008与2025年的世界人口 2008
2025 Asia = 53% global population China = 20% global population
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Global leadership: China is BACK! Global GDP 1820-2008 全球领导力：中国恢复了领导权！ 1820-2008的全球GDP 35
China= 11% Japan= 7% India= 5%
China India Japan
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1820
1870
1913
1950
1973
1998
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
2001
2004
2008
China in the global economy 全球经济下的中国
USA EU Japan China India Other
21%
39%
China GDP= US$3500 billion 3° GDP 3° global trade 3° FDI ($70 billion)
17%
5%
7% 11%
25 entreprises in global Top 500 WTO since 2001 HDI = 94° GDP per capita $2400/$5400 ppa Source: IMF/2008
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
China’s rising official reserve assets 中国不断增加的官方储备资产 US$2000 billion 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Holding of US Securities
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Net capital exporting countries 各国资本输出净值
Source: IMF
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
700
Who finances whom?谁向谁提供资金？ Current account balances of OECD (30) and EMCs (160) OECD(30)与EMCs(160)的经常项目收支
US$ billion
500
CHINA
300
EMCs
OECD
100 -100 -300 -500
USA
-700 20
20
20
20
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Source: IIF, IMF-WEO 2009
China’s trade export flows in the global economy 中国在全球经济中的出口贸易流通
45%
43%
China’s world trade share : 8% (+2,5% HK) CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Source: WTO 2008
Export diversification = < trade dependance on the US! 出口多元化= 25%
Anderson/UBS
The Complete RMB Handbook
Oct. 2003
Nearly 25% in real terms
US Congress Schumer
Testimony to Congress
Oct. 2003
27% >40%
O’Neill & Wilson
Goldman Sachs Rpt.
Sept. 2003
10-15%
Bhalla
Chinese Mercantilism: Currency Wars and How the East Was Lost
July 1998
10-15% as of 1998
2007
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Yuan Milestone 元的里程碑
July 2005 =
managed exchange rate policy
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
The Yuan 2007-2009 2007-2009年的元 Subprime crisis= global contamination= economic slowdown= end in Yuan appreciation since mid-2008
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Sequence of challenges 一系列挑战 Globalization & trade openness Export dependence + high commodity prices
Global crisis contamination Global demand reduction = Drop in exports
Twin bubble = stock exchange + real estate « Negative wealth effect» Drop in domestic C + I
Growth slowdown Job losses + salary cuts + bankrupcies + migrations Threat of rising social tensions Economic stimulus & diversification CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
China in Globalization 全球化的中国 2007= De-coupling? De-phasing? o 2008= Growth slowdown 2009= Crisis spill-over and contamination 2010= Economic recovery and sustainable development strategy? o
o o
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
The « decoupling myth »脱钩神话 o
o
o
With « only » 11% of global GDP, China could not alone offset the impact of the falling world demand on developed countries! Global slowdown pushes down commodity prices (good for China), but it also cuts access to capital flows and FDI, and reduces exports (bad for China!) But with large official reserves and a current account surplus, China is in strong position to fight back and to rebalance economic growth toward domestic consumption! CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
2008-2010 = free fall in global economic growth 2008-2010 = 全球经济增长的自由降落
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Crisis early warning signals: signals Reduction in industrial production, in domestic demand, and in exports = rise in unemployment 危机预警信号：工业生产、国内需求及出口的减少=失业率上升
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Export-Import flows August 08-February 09 08年8月-09年2月的进出口流动 160 US$ billion 140 120
Shrinking trade surplus
100 80 60
Exports Imports
40
Overall export fall in 2009 might reach 15%, particularly grain, fertilizers, garment, and toys
20 0 August
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Jan
Febr
Macro-economic situation in 2009 2009年的宏观经济形势 ∆ GDP
CHINA France -1,9% 7%
UK
Spain
Italy
Germany USA
-2,8%
-1,7%
-2,1%
-2,5%
-2%
Inflation
1%
1,5%
1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Unemploy
4,6-9%
8,5%
6%
11%
7,7%
7,5%
8,2%
9%
-1,6%
-1,5%
-7%
-2,2%
+5,5%
-4,6%
Budget/GDP
米歇尔-亨利.布歇 March 20, 2009
Suzhou University Business School Michel Henry Bouchet Director-Global Finance Center ® www.globalfinance.org
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
China in Globalization: Dynamism and Mutual Dependence 全球化的中国：充满活力，相互依存 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Toward global economic leadership全球经济领导力 China’s new competitiveness中国新的竞争力 Globalization and crisis spill-over effect全球化与危机溢 出效应 Socio-economic challenges社会经济中的挑战 Economic recovery program经济恢复计划 The way forward: innovation, productivity and sustainable development方法：创新、生产力与可持续发展
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
BRICs’ « catch up process » 金砖四国的《赶超他国进程》
Goldman Sachs 2007
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
World population 2008 & 2025 2008与2025年的世界人口 2008
2025 Asia = 53% global population China = 20% global population
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Global leadership: China is BACK! Global GDP 1820-2008 全球领导力：中国恢复了领导权！ 1820-2008的全球GDP 35
China= 11% Japan= 7% India= 5%
China India Japan
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1820
1870
1913
1950
1973
1998
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
2001
2004
2008
China in the global economy 全球经济下的中国
USA EU Japan China India Other
21%
39%
China GDP= US$3500 billion 3° GDP 3° global trade 3° FDI ($70 billion)
17%
5%
7% 11%
25 entreprises in global Top 500 WTO since 2001 HDI = 94° GDP per capita $2400/$5400 ppa Source: IMF/2008
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
China’s rising official reserve assets 中国不断增加的官方储备资产 US$2000 billion 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Holding of US Securities
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Net capital exporting countries 各国资本输出净值
Source: IMF
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
700
Who finances whom?谁向谁提供资金？ Current account balances of OECD (30) and EMCs (160) OECD(30)与EMCs(160)的经常项目收支
US$ billion
500
CHINA
300
EMCs
OECD
100 -100 -300 -500
USA
-700 20
20
20
20
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Source: IIF, IMF-WEO 2009
China’s trade export flows in the global economy 中国在全球经济中的出口贸易流通
45%
43%
China’s world trade share : 8% (+2,5% HK) CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Source: WTO 2008
Export diversification = < trade dependance on the US! 出口多元化= 25%
Anderson/UBS
The Complete RMB Handbook
Oct. 2003
Nearly 25% in real terms
US Congress Schumer
Testimony to Congress
Oct. 2003
27% >40%
O’Neill & Wilson
Goldman Sachs Rpt.
Sept. 2003
10-15%
Bhalla
Chinese Mercantilism: Currency Wars and How the East Was Lost
July 1998
10-15% as of 1998
2007
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Yuan Milestone 元的里程碑
July 2005 =
managed exchange rate policy
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
The Yuan 2007-2009 2007-2009年的元 Subprime crisis= global contamination= economic slowdown= end in Yuan appreciation since mid-2008
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Sequence of challenges 一系列挑战 Globalization & trade openness Export dependence + high commodity prices
Global crisis contamination Global demand reduction = Drop in exports
Twin bubble = stock exchange + real estate « Negative wealth effect» Drop in domestic C + I
Growth slowdown Job losses + salary cuts + bankrupcies + migrations Threat of rising social tensions Economic stimulus & diversification CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
China in Globalization 全球化的中国 2007= De-coupling? De-phasing? o 2008= Growth slowdown 2009= Crisis spill-over and contamination 2010= Economic recovery and sustainable development strategy? o
o o
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
The « decoupling myth »脱钩神话 o
o
o
With « only » 11% of global GDP, China could not alone offset the impact of the falling world demand on developed countries! Global slowdown pushes down commodity prices (good for China), but it also cuts access to capital flows and FDI, and reduces exports (bad for China!) But with large official reserves and a current account surplus, China is in strong position to fight back and to rebalance economic growth toward domestic consumption! CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
2008-2010 = free fall in global economic growth 2008-2010 = 全球经济增长的自由降落
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Crisis early warning signals: signals Reduction in industrial production, in domestic demand, and in exports = rise in unemployment 危机预警信号：工业生产、国内需求及出口的减少=失业率上升
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Export-Import flows August 08-February 09 08年8月-09年2月的进出口流动 160 US$ billion 140 120
Shrinking trade surplus
100 80 60
Exports Imports
40
Overall export fall in 2009 might reach 15%, particularly grain, fertilizers, garment, and toys
20 0 August
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
CERAM Business School-M.H. Bouchet
Jan
Febr
Macro-economic situation in 2009 2009年的宏观经济形势 ∆ GDP
CHINA France -1,9% 7%
UK
Spain
Italy
Germany USA
-2,8%
-1,7%
-2,1%
-2,5%
-2%
Inflation
1%
1,5%
1%
2%
2%
1%
0%
Unemploy
4,6-9%
8,5%
6%
11%
7,7%
7,5%
8,2%
9%
-1,6%
-1,5%
-7%
-2,2%
+5,5%
-4,6%
Budget/GDP
