Progress on Peak-Oil Debate in China Presented by Prof. Lianyong Feng Email:
[email protected] Tel: (+86)10-13911236801 www.cup.edu.cn/peakoil China University of Petroleum in Beijing (CUPB) The Group for the Global Energy System in China October, 2009
The Development and Application of Forecast Models of Peak Oil in China Weng-model (Poisson Cycle ) Q = At
n
e
−t
t>0
Wenbo Weng (1912-1994) Expert of China Academy of Sciences
Weng has been a pioneer in forecasting the oil production in China.
Chen Yuanqian Generalized Weng-model N t be−(t c) Q Q = b+1 R c Γ (b + 1)
m
⎛ bc ⎞ = a⎜ ⎟ ⎝ a ⎠
b
Q = at b e −t c t m = bc Yuanqian Chen (1933---)
The forecast model of oil production and reserves he created has been applied to practice widely.
HCZ
Models
Jianguo Hu; Yuanqian Chen; Shengzong Zhang Q = aN t
m
Qm =
=
R 1 b
e
−
ln
a e b
− bt
− bt
a b
1 bN R = 0 .3679 N R e
Based on statistics, this model is more practical than the previous ones and has made great contribution to evaluating the production and reserves of oil fields.
Forecast the arrival time Impacts on economy Lianyong Feng
Made much development of theories and models Xiongqi Pang
HCZ model Hubbert model
Dissymmetry of bell-shaped curve refutes the criticism of HUBBERT model. A better result has been attained in forecasting peak oil in China due to the fact that these are more practical.
The Debate about Peak Oil in China Government Oil Company Academia Mass Media
Sept. 4, 2009 Beijing
Expert of the Consultant Committee of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation
Kang Zhang
Former Chief Engineer of the Exploration, Development and Research Institute of SINOPEC.
Peak Oil is Nonsense! • The model of Peak Oil can’t forecast the oil production accurately due to the incomplete selection of parameters . • The development of technology will promote the continuous supply .
Kang Zhang Said ¾“The forecasting models have limitations because they are simply based on mathematics with many coefficients, which are on the base of assumption, making the whole system as a Isolated system. They ignore the factors which belong to the Complicated system, such as the exploration of new oil fields and the EOR”. ¾“The oil resources are still abundant, and the increase of oil production could be attained by alternative tactics and strategies, or developing through exploration of new oil fields and excavation of old oil fields.”
2009 Manager of China Hi-Ment Corp. 1990 The consulter of ENRON
Peak Oil is mythical and it’s just a means of cheating the public. Yuanchun Tong
Peak oil is a theory of “making ghosts”.
Peak Oil is A Lie ! He argues that, “The total resources of oil found world wide will exceed the demand of economic development in hundreds of years ”, in the “True Story of Petroleum.”
www. cup. edu. cn /peakoil
Members
Publications Overseas Journals: 6 Papers Chinese Journals: 19 Papers
Academic Conference on Peak Oil in China
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
International Exchange
The price rise of domestic oil products has prompted the public to pay high attention to the crude oil price and the prospect of oil industry.
Television Interview CCTV-2
Interviews of Newspaper and Journals
Peak Oil, as one of the main factors leading high oil price, attracts much attention of mass media.
Peak Oil has been brought to the notice of the public Dingming Xu
Dadi Zhou
Xianghong Cao
Counselor of the State Council
Chief of Energy Research Institute of NDRC
Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering
Admit the “Peak oil” Taking the strategies against it is more important than forecasting.
It is an economic and politic issue, but not a geological matter. The advance of technology will improve the oil production.
It is true and not far away from us. The arrival of peak oil will impose serious impacts on economic development, so we must make precautions against it.
How the government and oil companies react to peak oil with more and more attention paid to it? Peak oil is nonsense or a reality ? Our government is still on the fence!
“There is still a lot of oil under the ground and peak oil is far away from us.”
Peak Oil in China The government
The oil companies
The academia
Mass Media
The government may realize the reality of peak oil but they are still on the fence.
Facing the difficulties of increasing oil production and lowering costs, they still arguing against the issue of peak oil. Peak oil arouses fierce debate. More and more experts have taken part in the debate, including the geologists, economists and so on.
Began to pay attention to peak oil and realized its importance.
Peak Oil Is Real and We Must Take Measures against It. ¾Further research & study ¾New paper: “Post-Oil Era Is Coming” ¾ Cooperation with Uppsala University ¾ Looking forward to cooperating with other ASPO members
Thank You ! Prof. Lianyong Feng Email:
[email protected] Tel: (+86)10-13911236801 China University of Petroleum in Beijing (CUPB) The Group for the Global Energy System in China
www.cup.edu.cn/peakoil