Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines Stephen Rose, Paulina Jaramillo, Jay Apt, Mitch Small, Iris Grossmann Carnegie Mellon University June 2, 2011 2 1
Proposed Offshore Wind Developments
2 2
Hurricane Risk to Wind Turbines Typhoon Maemi, Okinawa, 2004
Takahara, et al (2004) 3
2
Model: Hurricane Intensity
2 4
Model: Wind Turbine Damage Function
2 5
Model: Distribution of Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years • No replacement: Phase-Type distribution • Replacement: compound Poisson distribution Assumptions: - Single wind farm - Each turbine experiences same conditions 2 6
Turbines Destroyed by One Hurricane 50-turbine wind farm
2 7
Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years 50-turbine wind farm
Not yawing Yawing
2 8
Distribution of Expected Damage by Hurricane Class
2 9
Engineering: Protecting Turbines • Backup power for yaw system – Survival depends on active system – Wind vane must survive – Turbine must yaw quickly
• Stronger towers and blades – More steel in tower – More fiberglass in blades – 20 – 30% cost increase
2 10
Policy: Where to Build Offshore Wind Turbines? Rate of Hurricane Occurence λ [year-1]
0.35
TX
0.30 LA
0.25
NC
0.20 0.15
SC
0.10 NY
CT
0.05
NH DE PA
0.00 0
GA
ME
RI
25
MA VA
MD
50
NJ
75
100
125
150
175
200
Offshore Wind Resource at Depth < 60 m [GW]
11
225
250
2
Future Research: How Much Reserve Power is Needed?
2 12
Proposed Offshore Wind Developments
2 2
Hurricane Risk to Wind Turbines Typhoon Maemi, Okinawa, 2004
Takahara, et al (2004) 3
2
Model: Hurricane Intensity
2 4
Model: Wind Turbine Damage Function
2 5
Model: Distribution of Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years • No replacement: Phase-Type distribution • Replacement: compound Poisson distribution Assumptions: - Single wind farm - Each turbine experiences same conditions 2 6
Turbines Destroyed by One Hurricane 50-turbine wind farm
2 7
Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years 50-turbine wind farm
Not yawing Yawing
2 8
Distribution of Expected Damage by Hurricane Class
2 9
Engineering: Protecting Turbines • Backup power for yaw system – Survival depends on active system – Wind vane must survive – Turbine must yaw quickly
• Stronger towers and blades – More steel in tower – More fiberglass in blades – 20 – 30% cost increase
2 10
Policy: Where to Build Offshore Wind Turbines? Rate of Hurricane Occurence λ [year-1]
0.35
TX
0.30 LA
0.25
NC
0.20 0.15
SC
0.10 NY
CT
0.05
NH DE PA
0.00 0
GA
ME
RI
25
MA VA
MD
50
NJ
75
100
125
150
175
200
Offshore Wind Resource at Depth < 60 m [GW]
11
225
250
2
Future Research: How Much Reserve Power is Needed?
2 12
