Rob Musser, PhD Pork Board Meeting Cincinnati, Ohio Sept 26th, 2012
2
Introduced
three years ago to swine segment
• Used in feeding about 40-50 million pigs/yr (50%) • Used in several large poultry systems nationwide • Ruminant model to be coming this fall (Next week) • Right Source finds Right Value for Livestock Producer
®
Sampling •Feed Mills •Ethanol Plants
Samples
Central Laboratory •NIR •Wet Chem •HPLC •Digestibility Assay Lab Results
NutriQuest Database/Brill •Energy Equations •Digestible AA •Available P •Relative Values Loadings or Formulas
Client
Proximate
type assays: Crude Protein, Crude Fat, Crude Fiber, Dry Matter Minerals: Ash and Phosphorus, but others coming (Na) Other assays as base: Starch, ADF, NDF, residual sugars, ADICP, NDICP, and more being added. Amino Acids: (Lys, Met, Thr, Trp, Val, Ile, Leu, and more) Digestibility (Today involves adjusted IDEA assay, with other components for validation). Physical assays: Particle Size, Std Dev Energy: ME and NE Calculations based on analytical components.
Front-end
extraction removal of germ
• Product low in oil content below 5% Centrifuge
technologies
• Can lower the DDGS oil level by about 1.5-2% Surfactant
technologies
• When used in combination with centrifuge can
extract another 1-1.5% oil from the DDGS level
To gain insight into the prevalence of oil extraction of DDGS over the last 15 months. Format:
• Show status of April 2011
• Show Status of July 15th, 2012 • Show change in last 12 and 15 months
DDGS
samples were obtained from ILLUMINATE customers and ethanol plants as normal course of business. A total of 132 plants were used in the 2011 estimates and 137 for current estimates. Considered oil extraction if less than 10% oil (crude fat, as fed basis), while some areas will be producing some high 9% oil products without oil extraction. Sample analysis are via NIR calibrations supported by wet chemistry.
Number of ethanol plants per State in ILLUMINATE in April 2011 (132 plants) 40 35 30 25 20
15 10 5 0 IA
IL
IN
MI
MN
MO
ND
NE
NY
OH
SD
* Some states not included due to sample size
WI
Percentage of ethanol plants in each state with different oil levels from ILLUMINATE in April 2011 > 10% 100% 80%
60% 40% 20%
0%
10-9%
9-8%
8-7%
< 7%
Number of ethanol plants per State in ILLUMINATE in July 2012 (137 Plants) 35 30 25
20 15 10 5 0 IA
IL
IN
MI
MN
MO
ND
NE
NY
OH
SD
WI
Percentage of ethanol plants in each state at different oil levels from ILLUMINATE in July2012 > 10% 100% 80% 60% 40%
20% 0%
10-9%
9-8%
8-7%
< 7%
Percentage of ethanol plants per State in ILLUMINATE in July 2012 < 9% Oil 2011
< 9% Oil April 2012
< 9% Oil July 2012
100 80
60
58 47
40 20 0
17
In the last 15 months plants extracting oil at less than 9% has increase by 3 fold.
Overall impact was a average drop from 10.0% oil average in 2011 to 9.0% oil average in April and now 8.8% in July.
Expectation is that this will continue to grow up to about 7580% by end of year.
A definite market separation of high oil and low oil is developing, but buyers need to keep in mind the overall nutritional value of the product.
Research continues to demonstrate the impact of a plant extracting oil from 11 to 6% oil being a change of 9% relative to corn. If corn = 1525 ME then change is 137 Kcal/lb, or 27 Kcal/lb per 1% . It is important to remember that oil is only part of the energy equation and if a plant is controlling Fiber components and DM they can have an advantage.
$400 $390 $380
Less than 7 7-9 % More than 9
$370
$394
$389 $378 $363
Importance for Swine 1. Energy 2. Energy 3. Amino Acid 4. Minerals
$360
$350 $340
$342
$339
$330
Corn at $7.90 SBM at $539 Fat at $980
$320 $310 Finishing
Lactation
These numbers are always confounded by large ethanol company programs
140 117
120 100
95
121
120
128
102
80
Less than 7 7-9 % More than 9
60 40
20 0 Swine Finishing 2011
Swine Finishing 2012
These numbers are always confounded by large ethanol company programs
In the last 15 months plants extracting oil at less than 9% has increase by 3 fold.
Overall impact was a average drop from 10.0% oil average in 2011 to 9.0% oil average in April and now 8.8% in July.
Expectation is that this will continue to grow up to about 7580% by end of year.
A definite market separation of high oil and low oil is developing, but buyers need to keep in mind the overall nutritional value of the product.
Low Oil / Low ADF
High Oil / Low ADF
Low Oil / High ADF
High Oil / High ADF
Oil Level, %
6.6
10.6
8.6
12.2
ADF Level, %
9.8
10.3
13.9
13.6
Swine ME, Kcal/lb
91.3%
95.4%
88.8%
92.3%
Poultry TME, Kcal/lb
67.1%
71.8%
69.2%
71.0%
Poultry AME, Kcal/lb
79.5%
83.5%
82.9%
84.2%
Energy relative to corn ME
Data reported on a dry matter basis: Assume Corn swine ME = 3920, TME = 4020, AME 3766
110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60
104
97
Highest 25% Lowest 25%
104
Corn 86
85 75
Dairy (Avg of ME, NE g, NE l, and NE m)
Swine (Avg of ME and NE)
Poultry (avg of TME and AME)
Corn Value (DM basis for Dairy and as is basis Swine and Poultry) = 1.42 ME Dairy, .67 NE g, .98 NE m, .86 Nel, 3395 Kcal/kg Swine ME, 2672 Kcal/kg Swine NE, 3373 Kcal/kg AME, 3494 Kcal/kg TME
Going from High oil to Sub 9% oil DDGS at an ethanol plant has lowered the energy value of DDGS in all species.
Difference in both Energy and Relative Value with DDGS sources that are below 9% oil are difficult to predict from oil level, due to other nutrients become more critical to manage (DM, ADF, and Particle Size).
It is critical to analyze and monitor DDGS sources and be aware of options in your market.
Thank you!