Rising to the Occasion
Rising to the Occasion Sea Level Rise and its implications for Boston
Hubert Murray FAIA RIBA
EBC 5th Annual Ocean Resource Management Conference New England Coastal cities: Adapting to Sea Level Rise Friday July 16, 2010
Rising to the Occasion •
What‟s the problem ?
•
What are the solutions?
•
What is to be done?
Origins - a safe harbor from nature and invaders
Boston Harbor
from Charts of the Coast and Harbors of New England JFW Des Barres London 1781
Boston 1743 - Long Wharf, the Mole and the Barricado Defense against Nature and Man - high ground, low stakes
William Burgis south east view of Boston, 1743 (detail)
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Tropical cyclone tracks 1985-2005
NASA Earth Observatory
21 out of 25 top US ports in prime cyclone zones Boston is number 37 – a different issue
US Top Water Ports by Tonnage 2006
US Army Corps of Engineers
$ 463 billion* * WWF/ Allianz: Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector (2009)
$7 trillion US exposure in exposed assets under 2050 „tipping point‟ scenario
68% of exposed assets in top three countries (China, US, India) 90% in top eight
WWF/ Allianz: Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector (2009)
Applied Science Associates, 2010
Boston – no flooding, today‟s conditions (2010)
Applied Science Associates, 2010
Flooding from worst case Category 2 hurricane, today‟s conditions (2010)
Applied Science Associates, 2010
Flooding from a worst case Category 2 hurricane + 2m. SLR (2100)
Hidden Assets – Infrastructure and urban systems
Paris Flood 1910
Photo:Albert Chevojon, Bibliotheque National
Hidden Assets – Infrastructure and urban systems
Boston – the urban consequences of a 2m. Flood
Hidden Assets – Infrastructure and urban systems
Boston – the urban consequences of a 2m. Flood
Boston‟s Growth - and history repeated
from Krieger, Cobb, Turner: Mapping Boston, 1999
4.5 feet 4.63 feet
Sea Level and Surge – today‟s flood is tomorrow‟s high tide
SRH ground floor 13.35 MSL
2010 500 yr flood 11.0 MSL
2010 100 yr flood 10.0 MSL
Building for the future in Charlestown Navy Yard
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
Defense
ST. PETERSBURG | NEVA CROSSING
Built in marshland, 270 large scale floods since 1703. Approved in 1978, a 25 km. series of dams built 8 meters above high water with two main shipping channels and a 6-lane highway. Due for completion in 2010.
Defense
VENICE | PROJECT MOSES
Project MOSES a comprehensive flood control system protecting Venice from acqua alta, activated at 1.1 meters above the norm and effective up to 3 meters. Prompted by floods of 1966, the project is due for completion in 2012 at a cost of $3 billion.
Defense
LONDON | THAMES BARRIER
520 meters across the Thames, includes embankments
Container port moved downstream - major urban growth Completed 1982 in response to 1953 floods Construction cost $2 billion (2010 dollars)
Defense
NEW YORK HARBOR Three storm surge barriers placed in narrow points of the waterways surrounding the city: Verazanno Narrows Upper End of the East River where it meets Long Island Sound near Perth Amboy at mouth of Arthur Kill Protected area approx. 130 km2 includes New York City, New Jersey waterfront including Newark Airport and the surrounding conurbation. Cost $5 billion approx.
Douglas Hill, Must New York City Have Its Own Katrina? Leadership and Management in Engineering, July 2008
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
Engagement
HAMMARBY SJÖSTAD SWEDEN
Stockholm
Follows clear and comprehensive plan for consolidated urban growth New Stockholm suburb built on and around water 200 hectares former waterfront brownfield site 25,000 residents + 10,000 workers 11,000 apartments (50/50 owner/rental); 2m.sq.ft. of commercial space
Engagement
HAMMARBY SJÖSTAD SWEDEN Land usage: natural growth of Stockholm proper embracing inland waterways; transformation of brownfield sites into residential areas with parks and green public spaces. Energy: renewable fuels, biogas products and reuse of waste heat; efficient energy consumption in buildings. Water & sewage: clean and efficient with new technology for water saving and sewage treatment. Waste: material and energy recycling maximised Transportation: fast, attractive public transport; car pools; cycle paths, reduced private car usage. Building materials: healthy, dry and environmentally sound.
Defense / Engagement
DELTA WORKS | Netherlands 600 square mile sea and river flood control as fully integrated infrastructure
Enforcement of flood defences against sea level rise Lake level rise with strategic fresh water reservoir Coastal reclamation by beach nourishment Restoration of tidal dynamics
Working together with water Findings of the Deltacommissie 2008
Defense / Engagement
DELTA WORKS | Netherlands 50-year project Flood Risk Factors 1per 2,000 years 1 in 10,000 years Costs (per year) $1.8bn – $2.4bn thru 2050 $1.3bn – $2.2bn 2050-2100 Total approx. $130-$200bn Netherlands GDP (2009) $652 billion Public Debt / GDP 62.5%
Engagement
NEW YORK | PALISADE BAY Multidisciplinary research and design project based in Princeton University Background material for Rising Currents exhibition at MoMA
Principle of “soft infrastructure” Archipelago of islands and reefs, porous edges On the Water | Palisade Bay Princeton University 2010 Rising Currents | MoMA March-August 2010
Engagement
NEW YORK | PALISADE BAY Porous Edges Wetlands and Parks Piers and Slips Surge barriers Offshore piers Subway car reefs Oyster Racks Wave, wind turbines On the Water | Palisade Bay Princeton University 2010 Rising Currents | MoMA March-August 2010
Engagement
SAN FRANCISCO | Rising Tides Competition
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission international design competition: http://risingtidescompetition.com/risingtides/Home.html
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
Retreat / Denial
Not an option
Perfect Information
Informed Oblivion
The Times Picayune before Katrina
New Yorker 2010
Retreat
Not an easy option
Retreat
Doing nothing not acceptable = abandonment
What is to be done?
BOSTON‟S SAFETY BELT Antonio Di Mambro’s winning project for Boston Visions competition 1988 Protect the inner harbor Generate safe developable land at the water‟s edge Restore wetlands, marshes
Create port / LNG facilities outside Create a N-S ring road / rail Antonio Di Mamdro + Associates
Integrate water transportation Incorporate renewable energy infrastructure (wind, waves, solar) The heart of a regional plan Cost
Hubert Murray FAIA RIBA
EBC 5th Annual Ocean Resource Management Conference New England Coastal cities: Adapting to Sea Level Rise Friday July 16, 2010
Rising to the Occasion •
What‟s the problem ?
•
What are the solutions?
•
What is to be done?
Origins - a safe harbor from nature and invaders
Boston Harbor
from Charts of the Coast and Harbors of New England JFW Des Barres London 1781
Boston 1743 - Long Wharf, the Mole and the Barricado Defense against Nature and Man - high ground, low stakes
William Burgis south east view of Boston, 1743 (detail)
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Tropical cyclone tracks 1985-2005
NASA Earth Observatory
21 out of 25 top US ports in prime cyclone zones Boston is number 37 – a different issue
US Top Water Ports by Tonnage 2006
US Army Corps of Engineers
$ 463 billion* * WWF/ Allianz: Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector (2009)
$7 trillion US exposure in exposed assets under 2050 „tipping point‟ scenario
68% of exposed assets in top three countries (China, US, India) 90% in top eight
WWF/ Allianz: Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector (2009)
Applied Science Associates, 2010
Boston – no flooding, today‟s conditions (2010)
Applied Science Associates, 2010
Flooding from worst case Category 2 hurricane, today‟s conditions (2010)
Applied Science Associates, 2010
Flooding from a worst case Category 2 hurricane + 2m. SLR (2100)
Hidden Assets – Infrastructure and urban systems
Paris Flood 1910
Photo:Albert Chevojon, Bibliotheque National
Hidden Assets – Infrastructure and urban systems
Boston – the urban consequences of a 2m. Flood
Hidden Assets – Infrastructure and urban systems
Boston – the urban consequences of a 2m. Flood
Boston‟s Growth - and history repeated
from Krieger, Cobb, Turner: Mapping Boston, 1999
4.5 feet 4.63 feet
Sea Level and Surge – today‟s flood is tomorrow‟s high tide
SRH ground floor 13.35 MSL
2010 500 yr flood 11.0 MSL
2010 100 yr flood 10.0 MSL
Building for the future in Charlestown Navy Yard
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
Defense
ST. PETERSBURG | NEVA CROSSING
Built in marshland, 270 large scale floods since 1703. Approved in 1978, a 25 km. series of dams built 8 meters above high water with two main shipping channels and a 6-lane highway. Due for completion in 2010.
Defense
VENICE | PROJECT MOSES
Project MOSES a comprehensive flood control system protecting Venice from acqua alta, activated at 1.1 meters above the norm and effective up to 3 meters. Prompted by floods of 1966, the project is due for completion in 2012 at a cost of $3 billion.
Defense
LONDON | THAMES BARRIER
520 meters across the Thames, includes embankments
Container port moved downstream - major urban growth Completed 1982 in response to 1953 floods Construction cost $2 billion (2010 dollars)
Defense
NEW YORK HARBOR Three storm surge barriers placed in narrow points of the waterways surrounding the city: Verazanno Narrows Upper End of the East River where it meets Long Island Sound near Perth Amboy at mouth of Arthur Kill Protected area approx. 130 km2 includes New York City, New Jersey waterfront including Newark Airport and the surrounding conurbation. Cost $5 billion approx.
Douglas Hill, Must New York City Have Its Own Katrina? Leadership and Management in Engineering, July 2008
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
Engagement
HAMMARBY SJÖSTAD SWEDEN
Stockholm
Follows clear and comprehensive plan for consolidated urban growth New Stockholm suburb built on and around water 200 hectares former waterfront brownfield site 25,000 residents + 10,000 workers 11,000 apartments (50/50 owner/rental); 2m.sq.ft. of commercial space
Engagement
HAMMARBY SJÖSTAD SWEDEN Land usage: natural growth of Stockholm proper embracing inland waterways; transformation of brownfield sites into residential areas with parks and green public spaces. Energy: renewable fuels, biogas products and reuse of waste heat; efficient energy consumption in buildings. Water & sewage: clean and efficient with new technology for water saving and sewage treatment. Waste: material and energy recycling maximised Transportation: fast, attractive public transport; car pools; cycle paths, reduced private car usage. Building materials: healthy, dry and environmentally sound.
Defense / Engagement
DELTA WORKS | Netherlands 600 square mile sea and river flood control as fully integrated infrastructure
Enforcement of flood defences against sea level rise Lake level rise with strategic fresh water reservoir Coastal reclamation by beach nourishment Restoration of tidal dynamics
Working together with water Findings of the Deltacommissie 2008
Defense / Engagement
DELTA WORKS | Netherlands 50-year project Flood Risk Factors 1per 2,000 years 1 in 10,000 years Costs (per year) $1.8bn – $2.4bn thru 2050 $1.3bn – $2.2bn 2050-2100 Total approx. $130-$200bn Netherlands GDP (2009) $652 billion Public Debt / GDP 62.5%
Engagement
NEW YORK | PALISADE BAY Multidisciplinary research and design project based in Princeton University Background material for Rising Currents exhibition at MoMA
Principle of “soft infrastructure” Archipelago of islands and reefs, porous edges On the Water | Palisade Bay Princeton University 2010 Rising Currents | MoMA March-August 2010
Engagement
NEW YORK | PALISADE BAY Porous Edges Wetlands and Parks Piers and Slips Surge barriers Offshore piers Subway car reefs Oyster Racks Wave, wind turbines On the Water | Palisade Bay Princeton University 2010 Rising Currents | MoMA March-August 2010
Engagement
SAN FRANCISCO | Rising Tides Competition
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission international design competition: http://risingtidescompetition.com/risingtides/Home.html
What are the solutions?
3 Strategies 1. Defense 2. Engagement
3. Retreat
Retreat / Denial
Not an option
Perfect Information
Informed Oblivion
The Times Picayune before Katrina
New Yorker 2010
Retreat
Not an easy option
Retreat
Doing nothing not acceptable = abandonment
What is to be done?
BOSTON‟S SAFETY BELT Antonio Di Mambro’s winning project for Boston Visions competition 1988 Protect the inner harbor Generate safe developable land at the water‟s edge Restore wetlands, marshes
Create port / LNG facilities outside Create a N-S ring road / rail Antonio Di Mamdro + Associates
Integrate water transportation Incorporate renewable energy infrastructure (wind, waves, solar) The heart of a regional plan Cost
