Russia: steel market developments - OECD.org
OECD STEEL COMMITTEE DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD STEELMAKING CAPACITY
Russia: steel market developments Maria Ivanova, Novolipetsk Steel
Paris, December 2010
Russia’ Steel Industry Dynamics Production volume, mmt 7,0 6,0
3,1 3,2
Consumption, mmt
3,6 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,4
3,2
4,0
Peak low
Average pre-crisis steel production 2,9
5,0
2,5
2,5 2,5 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 Average pre-crisis rolled steel production 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,8
4,0 1,4 1,4
3,0
2,8 2,9 2,6 2,7
3,03 2,9
3,5 3,0 2,5
2,0 1,5
1,2
2,0
1,0
Crude steel production
Finished steel production
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
0,0
Mar-08
0,0
Feb-08
0,5
Jan-08
1,0
Consumption
Semi-finished & Finished steel balance, mmt 6,0 3,7
Peak low
3,8
3,9
4,0 3,8
3,7
3,4
3,2
3,8
3,5
2,0 1,5
2,7
2,1
1,9
2,6
2,4
1,9
2,3
1,4
2,7
2,5
2,7
3,0
2,5
3,0
2,8
2,5
2,6
2,9 3,0
2,8
3,0
2,0
1,3
0,0
-2,0
Production
Export
Sources: Metal-Expert, Russian Statistics Agency, Metal Courier
Import
Consumption
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
-4,0
-2-
Current Economic Situation In Russia GDP and its elements growth rates, y-o-y, %
Budget Income & Spending, % GDP Deficit period
Surplus period
Industrial Production & Industrial Producer's Price index, y-o-y, %
IP & Fixed Capital Investments indices Industrial producer’s price index
105 100 95 90 85 80 75
IP index
Investments in fixed capital
Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency , Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Economic Development
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
70
Jan-08
Industrial production growth rate
110
-3-
Russia’ Steel Using Sectors Output Dynamics Construction & Metal Products Output Indices , y-o-y, % 30
Pipes & Tubes Production Index, y-o-y, % 75
20
55
10 35
0 -10
15
-20
-5
-30 -25
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Machinery & Equipment Production Index, y-o-y , %
Mar-08
Metal products output, y-o-y, %
-45
Jan-08
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
Construction
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
-40
Automotive Industry Production Index, y-o-y, %
45
160
25
110 60
5
10
-15
-40
-35
-140 Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency , Ministry of Industry and Trade
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
-55
-90
-4-
Steel consumption in Russia Steel Consumption & Russian Steel Using Sectors Production Index Average 4
60
Peak low
31
32
3
13
2,5
5
16
15
13
7
8
5
19
25
0
-1
-10
-20
-39
-34
-30
-29 -34
-40
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
-50
Jul-09
-39
Mar-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-09
-40
-20
-23
-37
0,5 0
-19
-30
-20
May-09
1
Mar-08
30 10
1,5
Jan-08
40 20
7
2
50 36
27
18
9
12
34
Index average, y-o-y %
Steel consumption, mmt
3,5
50
Steel consumption breakdown by sector, mmt 2010 Automotive industry; 8%
Mecanical machinery
Mecanical machinery; 5%
2
Construction; 36%
Pipes & Tubes; 16%
Automotive industry
Pipes & Tubes
Other; 35%
3
6
Other
13
Construction
13
Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency , Ministry of Industry and Trade; NLMK research
-5-
Production forecast of steelmaking raw materials Iron Ore
Coking Coal
+47%
+47% 140
100
+4%
120
+12%
80
60
104
105
100
40
116
112
100
Volume, mmt
80
-32%
-32%
100
60
40
68
70
2006
2007
91
64
61
2008
2009
87
78
67
20 20
0
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015 (f)
Consumption
2020 (f)
Production
Consumption
…
2015 (f)
…
2020 (f)
Production
HBI/DRI
Scrap +47%
30
+100%
+82%
12
10 -32%
20
10
Volume, mmt
Volume, mmt
2010
+7%
20
21
22
21
+20%
6
12
4
16
15
11
8
2
3
3
5
5
5
2008
2009
2010
6
0
0 2006
2007
2008
Consumption
2009
2010
…
2015 (f)
Production
…
2020 (f)
2006
2007
…
2015 (f)
…
2020 (f)
Production
Sources: Strategy of Russian Steel Industry Development till 2020, Ministry of Industry and Trade; MetalCourier, Chermet, AME
-6-
Raw Materials Market Russian Steel Industry Self-sufficiency in Raw Materials (2009, mmt) Import
100 80
Export
Output
Output 91
60 20
Import 9
0
Output 61
Domestic consumptio n 78
40
Import
Russia: steel market developments Maria Ivanova, Novolipetsk Steel
Paris, December 2010
Russia’ Steel Industry Dynamics Production volume, mmt 7,0 6,0
3,1 3,2
Consumption, mmt
3,6 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,4 3,4
3,2
4,0
Peak low
Average pre-crisis steel production 2,9
5,0
2,5
2,5 2,5 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 Average pre-crisis rolled steel production 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,8
4,0 1,4 1,4
3,0
2,8 2,9 2,6 2,7
3,03 2,9
3,5 3,0 2,5
2,0 1,5
1,2
2,0
1,0
Crude steel production
Finished steel production
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
0,0
Mar-08
0,0
Feb-08
0,5
Jan-08
1,0
Consumption
Semi-finished & Finished steel balance, mmt 6,0 3,7
Peak low
3,8
3,9
4,0 3,8
3,7
3,4
3,2
3,8
3,5
2,0 1,5
2,7
2,1
1,9
2,6
2,4
1,9
2,3
1,4
2,7
2,5
2,7
3,0
2,5
3,0
2,8
2,5
2,6
2,9 3,0
2,8
3,0
2,0
1,3
0,0
-2,0
Production
Export
Sources: Metal-Expert, Russian Statistics Agency, Metal Courier
Import
Consumption
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
-4,0
-2-
Current Economic Situation In Russia GDP and its elements growth rates, y-o-y, %
Budget Income & Spending, % GDP Deficit period
Surplus period
Industrial Production & Industrial Producer's Price index, y-o-y, %
IP & Fixed Capital Investments indices Industrial producer’s price index
105 100 95 90 85 80 75
IP index
Investments in fixed capital
Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency , Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Economic Development
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
70
Jan-08
Industrial production growth rate
110
-3-
Russia’ Steel Using Sectors Output Dynamics Construction & Metal Products Output Indices , y-o-y, % 30
Pipes & Tubes Production Index, y-o-y, % 75
20
55
10 35
0 -10
15
-20
-5
-30 -25
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Machinery & Equipment Production Index, y-o-y , %
Mar-08
Metal products output, y-o-y, %
-45
Jan-08
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
Construction
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
-40
Automotive Industry Production Index, y-o-y, %
45
160
25
110 60
5
10
-15
-40
-35
-140 Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency , Ministry of Industry and Trade
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
-55
-90
-4-
Steel consumption in Russia Steel Consumption & Russian Steel Using Sectors Production Index Average 4
60
Peak low
31
32
3
13
2,5
5
16
15
13
7
8
5
19
25
0
-1
-10
-20
-39
-34
-30
-29 -34
-40
Sep-10
Jul-10
May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
-50
Jul-09
-39
Mar-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Jan-09
-40
-20
-23
-37
0,5 0
-19
-30
-20
May-09
1
Mar-08
30 10
1,5
Jan-08
40 20
7
2
50 36
27
18
9
12
34
Index average, y-o-y %
Steel consumption, mmt
3,5
50
Steel consumption breakdown by sector, mmt 2010 Automotive industry; 8%
Mecanical machinery
Mecanical machinery; 5%
2
Construction; 36%
Pipes & Tubes; 16%
Automotive industry
Pipes & Tubes
Other; 35%
3
6
Other
13
Construction
13
Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency , Ministry of Industry and Trade; NLMK research
-5-
Production forecast of steelmaking raw materials Iron Ore
Coking Coal
+47%
+47% 140
100
+4%
120
+12%
80
60
104
105
100
40
116
112
100
Volume, mmt
80
-32%
-32%
100
60
40
68
70
2006
2007
91
64
61
2008
2009
87
78
67
20 20
0
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015 (f)
Consumption
2020 (f)
Production
Consumption
…
2015 (f)
…
2020 (f)
Production
HBI/DRI
Scrap +47%
30
+100%
+82%
12
10 -32%
20
10
Volume, mmt
Volume, mmt
2010
+7%
20
21
22
21
+20%
6
12
4
16
15
11
8
2
3
3
5
5
5
2008
2009
2010
6
0
0 2006
2007
2008
Consumption
2009
2010
…
2015 (f)
Production
…
2020 (f)
2006
2007
…
2015 (f)
…
2020 (f)
Production
Sources: Strategy of Russian Steel Industry Development till 2020, Ministry of Industry and Trade; MetalCourier, Chermet, AME
-6-
Raw Materials Market Russian Steel Industry Self-sufficiency in Raw Materials (2009, mmt) Import
100 80
Export
Output
Output 91
60 20
Import 9
0
Output 61
Domestic consumptio n 78
40
Import
