Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC)

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Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) April 2018

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Current Price* (SAR)

118.07

Target Price (SAR)

107.00

Upside / (Downside)

-9.3%

Source: Tadawul *prices as of 29th of April 2018

Key Financials Revenue

-3.4%

4.7%

13.6%

Net Income

17,614

18,430

23,187

Growth %

-6.2%

4.6%

25.8%

5.87

6.14

7.73

EPS

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital policy

1

Revenue Gross Profit Gross Margin EBIT Net Profit EPS

1Q-2017 36,320 13,530 37.25% 8,340 5,230 1.74

Q4-2017 40,340 12,430 30.8% 6,570 3,700 1.22

Q1-2018 41,860 14,210 33.95% 8,940 5,510 1.84

Change YoY 15.3% 5.0% 7.2% 5.4% -

Change QoQ 3.8% 14.3% 36.1% 48.9% -

1.9% 2.8% 6.3% -2.4% -

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

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Gross Margin

33.0%

33.4%

34.0%

Net Margin

12.3%

12.3%

13.6%

P/E

15.58x

16.60x

15.27x

P/B

1.74x

1.87x

2.06x

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.15x

6.74x

6.50x

4.4%

4.1%

3.8%

Dividend Yield

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Key Market Data Market Cap (bn)

354.0

YTD %

15.7%

52 Week (High )

123.80

52 Week (Low)

94.75

Shares Outstanding (mn)

3000.0

Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital

Price Performance 8500 8300 8100 7900 7700 7500 7300 7100 6900 6700 6500

125 120 115 110 105 100 95

TASI

Apr-18

Mar-18

Jan-18

90 Feb-18

Deviation from AJC Estimates

FY18E

Dec-17

SARmn (unless specified)

FY17

Jul-17

Results Summary

FY16

SARmn (unless specified)

Jun-17

Ajc View: Despite the one-off impact of SAR 1.1bn during 1Q2018 for strategic initiative; we believe that the metals segment had already shown an improvement during 1Q2018, where the construction activity, prices and market fundamental have picked-up and is expected to maintain profitability during next quarters. In addition, higher oil prices, global demand stability, investment diversification and improved production efficiency are the key factors for SABIC in FY2018. We believe that the impact on the company’s sales and margins during 2017 was partially attributed to shutdown of some plants, metal losses and assets impartment losses, however; the company is expected to continue to raise its production efficiency and operating rate in FY2018 and forward. SABIC Co. is expected to post SAR 23.1bn in net income (7.73 EPS) for FY2018, indicating an increase of 25.8%YoY for the year supported by better product prices, improved oil fundamentals and expected stopping of Ibn-Rushed provisions. The company is trading at a forward PE and P/B of 15.3x and 2.1x respectively based on our FY2018 earnings forecast. We expect the company to raise its dividend payment to SAR 4.5 DPS (3.8% D/Y) in 2018 from SAR 4.2 DPS in FY2017.

Key Ratios

Apr-17

our forecast of SAR 13.8bn due to higher than expected sales and gross margin. Gross margin stood at 33.95% in 1Q2018, higher than our estimates of 33.65%. Based on our estimates, Saudi Propane average price declined by 8.3%QoQ to an average price of USD 532/MT; however, polypropylene prices increased by 6.8%QoQ. Consequently, an increase in Polypropylene prices compared to a decline in propane price led to higher PP-Propane spreads in 1Q2018. PP-Propane spread expanded by 18.1%QoQ to USD 687/ MT from USD 582/MT in 1Q2017. SABIC’s implementation of cost efficiency since 2016 continue leading to a strong upsurge in the gross margin for the last quarters; however gross margin during FY2018 is expected to be slightly better compared to FY2017 due to improved performance of Ibn-Rushed/Hadeed and the dramatically change on the total downstream spreads. Operating profit for 1Q2018 stood at SAR 8.94bn; higher than our estimates of SAR 8.4bn due to lower than expected OPEX. The Company’s OPEX (SG & A) declined by SAR 688mn to stand at SAR 5.27bn, as compared to SAR 5.96bn in 4Q2017.

FY18E

Growth %

May-17

• Gross profit stood at SAR 14.21bn depicting an increase of 5.0%YoY and 14.3%QoQ, slightly better than

FY17

143,000 149,766 170,178

• SABIC’s revenue in 1Q2018 stood at SAR 41.86bn, which is in-line with AJC estimates of SAR 41.1bn with a 1.9% deviation. Higher revenue we believe were a culmination of higher average prices in 1Q2018; higher volumetric sales and as a result of planned maintenance during last year. Thus, operating rate is expected to stabilize high in 2Q2018 and onwards due to ramping up of production and higher global demand. During the quarter, the average selling prices of Polyethylene derivatives increased by 3.0%QoQ, and 5.2%YoY. MEG (SABIC) prices increased by 8.7%QoQ and by 3.2%YoY. Polypropylene (PP-Asia) improved by 6.8%QoQ and 15.8%YoY. On the other hand, the fertilizer segment witnessed mixed performance during 1Q2018, where Urea prices declined by 2.6%QoQ, but an increase of 1.1%YoY. Ammonia price increased by 10.2%YoY and 7.0%QoQ.

FY16

SARmn (unless specified)

Oct-17

market censuses profits estimates of SAR 5.65mn and SAR 5.60mn, respectively. SABIC posted net income of SAR 5.51bn; indicating an increase of 5.4%YoY and 48.9%QoQ. We believe that the YoY better result is mainly attributed to i) higher average sales prices and volumetric sales ii) lower than expected OPEX and Zakat & income tax iii) Improved performance of Ibn-Rushed/Hadeed. However, additional expenses for strategic restructuring initiatives contributed negatively to the bottom line in 1Q2018. As the other (expense) income, net is expected to stand at SAR -950mn (10.6% from operating income) compared to a positive of SAR 223mn in 1Q2017. On the other hand, the deviation of 1Q2018 earnings from our estimates is attributed mainly to the lower than expected OPEX and the impact of other expenses of SAR 1.1bn, as compared to our estimates of SAR 203mn in other (expense) income, net.

Neutral

Nov-17

• Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) result came in-line with estimates, slightly below AJC and

Recommendation

Sep-17

SABIC: 1Q2018 net income came in-line with estimates; standing at SAR 5.51bn with an increase of 5.4%YoY. However, better than expected sales and gross margin were offset by an increase of SAR 1.1bn in other expenses due to strategic restructuring initiative that aims to increase productivity and lowering the cost structure. Improved performance of Ibn-Rushed/Hadeed led to better performance in 1Q2018. Lower than expected production cost in 1Q2018 led to gross margin of 34.0% vs. our estimates of 33.7%. SAR 688mn (QoQ) decline in OPEX, along with lower Zakat expenses reduced the impact on the bottom line. Better YoY margins of Propane/Butane/Ethane derivatives and the expected discontinued provisions of SABIC’s subsidiaries are likely to improve margin during FY2018. In addition, global demand stability, investment diversification and improved production efficiency are the key factors for SABIC. Dividend payment is expected to be raised to SAR 4.5 DPS in 2018. We remain “Neutral” on the stock with a PT of SAR 107.0/share.

Aug-17

Result Flash Note 1Q-2018

SABIC

Source: Bloomberg, Aljazira Capital

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran +966 11 2256248 [email protected]

RESEARCH DIVISION

Head of Research

RESEARCH DIVISION

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION

Talha Nazar

Sultan Al Kadi, CAIA

Analyst

Jassim Al-Jubran

+966 11 2256250 [email protected]

+966 11 2256374 [email protected]

Analyst

Analyst

Waleed Al-jubayr

Muhanad Al-Odan

+966 11 2256146 [email protected]

+966 11 2256115 [email protected]

General Manager – Brokerage Services &

AGM-Head of international and institutional

AGM- Head of Western and Southern Region Investment

sales

brokerage

Centers

Alaa Al-Yousef

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa

Mansour Hamad Al-shuaibi

+966 11 2256060 [email protected]

+966 11 2256277 [email protected]

AGM-Head of Sales And Investment Centers

AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province

+966 11 2256248 [email protected]

+966 12 6618443 [email protected]

Central Region

Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa

Abdullah Al-Rahit

+966 11 2256364 [email protected]

+966 16 3617547 [email protected]

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RATING TERMINOLOGY

Analyst

2. 3. 4.

Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

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