Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company (SADAFCO)

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Global Research Result Update Equity - Saudi Arabia Food & Agriculture Sector 08 February, 2011

BUY

Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company (SADAFCO)

Target Price SAR46.8

Market Data Bloomberg Code: Reuters Code: th CMP (07 Feb 2011): O/S (mn) Market Cap (SARmn): Market Cap (USDmn): P/E 2010/11e (x): P/Bv 2010/11e (x):

SADAFCO AB 2270.SE SAR41.5 32.5 1,322.7 352.7 9.9 1.8

Price Performance 1-Yr High (SAR): Low (SAR): Average Volume:

Absolute (%) Relative (%)

53.7 33.7 247,138 1m -1.4 0.3

3m 5.1 2.3

12m -1.2 -7.6

1,000

Strengthening foothold - Key to growth Over the period of time, the company has become more focused to improve its market share through existing product line without making expansions. Hence, the company has adopted the strategy (i) product deepening of the existing product line to new products like triangular cheese; (ii) expand target market with new products, derived from existing product line and (iii) nurturing brand image through strategic alliance with electronic media. Global Research, therefore, expects the positive outcome of these actions will lead the company’s overall production to increase at a CAGR of 3.4%, during 2009/10-13/14 to 113.1mn liters in 2013/14, which will lead the company’s sales revenues to increase at a CAGR of 7.9%, during 2009/10-13/14.

Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11

20.0

Volume (000)

SADAFCO (SAR)

Source: Zawya

Enhancing market coverage & introducing new products in 9M10/11

35.0 25.0

0

Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company (SADAFCO) posted overall net profit of SAR97.2mn (EPS: SAR2.9) in 9M10/11, an increase of 14.3%YoY. Higher income from investments and other non-operating income to SAR13.8mn as compared to SAR9.6mn recorded in 9M09/10 and reduction in loss from discontinuing operation to SAR0.9mn in 9M10/11 compared to SAR2.2mn recorded in corresponding period last year. It is worth mentioning that the big chunk of the company’s investment income amounting SAR10mn was recognized in 3Q10/11, which led the company’s profitability to record at SAR41.5mn (EPS: SAR1.3) from PAT of SAR35.5mn (EPS: SAR1.1) in corresponding quarter last year and our estimates of SAR35.4mn (EPS: SAR1.1) for the quarter under review.

40.0 30.0

500

Other income inflates profitability growth

45.0

50.0

1,500

Non operational income lead 14.3% growth in 9M10/11 net profitability Gain in market share & new product launches; the key growth drivers Focusing on product deepening & strengthening of brand image Core-operational activities continue to show improvement

Improvement in the company’s market share and introduction of new products along with higher average prices, during 9M10/11, were the major reason which has led the company’s sales revenue to register the growth of 8.4% over revenues of SAR775.4mn recorded in similar period last year. However, despite of increase in cost of sales, the company has successfully implemented cost control program, which resulted in the growth of 8.2% in operating profit to SAR94.7mn in 9M10/11.

Price Volume Performance 2,000

   

Effective cost control measures leads to steady core-operational growth Based on the successful outcome of cost control measures in 9M2010/11, Global research expects the company will be able to manage the rise in operating expenses, going forward, on account of executing growth strategies. Based on instability in the company’s bottom-line due to high influence of non-operating income in bottom line, investor should focus on the performance of operating profit, which is expected to increase at a CAGR of 12.5% during 2009/10-2013/14. However, based on the lower investment income, going forward, the company’s profitability is expected to remain lower, during 2010/11-13/14, as compared to net income of SAR203mn (EPS: SAR6.2) in 2009/10.

Valuation update Syed Taimure Akhtar Senior Financial Analyst [email protected] Tel.: (966) 1 2994105 Global Investment House - Saudia www.globalinv.com.sa

Global Research has made upward revision in the company’s DCF based fair value to SAR46.8/share from SAR44.8/share, which offers potential upside of 12.7% over market th price of SAR41.5 (as on 07 Feb 2011). We, therefore, upgrade our recommendation for the stock to BUY.

Global Research - Saudi Arabia

Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company (SADAFCO)

Financial Updates Based on the incorporation of the company’s 9M10/11 financial results, we have come up with the updated 2010/11 financial forecast for the company given in the following table: Key Financial Updates 2010/11e (SARmn) Sales Revenue - Net

Earlier Estim ates Revised Estim ates

% Change

1,043

1,146

9.8%

Gross Profit

378

372

-1.7%

Operating Profit/Income

134

135

0.7%

Net Incom e

127

136

7.0%

So urce: Glo bal Research

The gain in market share by the company, according to 9M10/11 press release, has led us to make upward revision in the company’s net sales revenue. However, the adjustment of cost of sales in the company’s financial model has led us to make downward revision in gross profit, which indicates a decline in gross margin from our earlier estimate of 36.2% to 32.4% for 2010/11, which is mainly based on higher depreciation charges (on account of rise in the company’s plant, property & equipment in 9M10/11). Despite of downward revision in the company’s gross profit, we have made slight upward revision in the company’s expected operating profit which is mainly on the back of positive impact of the company’s cost control measures observed in 9M10/11. Finally, the upward revision in the company’s bottom-line is mainly attributed toward the recognition of higher other income in 3Q10/11, otherwise, the company’s profitability will remain on Global Research’s previous estimates.

February 2011

2

Global Research - Saudi Arabia

Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company (SADAFCO)

Financial Statements 2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11e

2011/12e

2012/13e

2013/14e

878 (598) 280 (168) (52) 60 11 18 (0.5) (10) (1) 78 (13) (8) 57

922 (660) 263 (155) (45) 63 (2) 6 (26) (1) 39 (3) (8) 28

1,023 (657) 365 (178) (60) 127 3 107 8 (22) (3) 221 (5) (13) 203

1,146 (774) 372 (184) (53) 135 15 (1) 150 (1) (13) 136

1,284 (878) 406 (172) (53) 181 6 (0) 187 (0) (13) 174

1,340 (912) 429 (179) (55) 195 6 (0) 201 (0) (14) 187

1,390 (943) 446 (186) (58) 203 7 (0) 210 (0) (15) 195

Cash and Bank Balance Account Receivable Inventories Other Current Assets

83 127 189 42

50 155 159 22

323 170 149 16

331 229 209 39

342 321 263 48

350 335 273 55

382 347 283 57

Investments Property Plant & Equipment Intengible Assets Other Non-Current Assets Total Assets

31 257 1 35 764

24 232 1 77 719

0.2 239 66 964

0.3 276 36 1,120

0.3 323 38 1,336

0.3 377 40 1,431

0.4 436 42 1,547

Long-Term Loans Account Payable Others Minoroty Interest

0.05 88 160 -

-

-

42 175 -

74 223 -

155 230 -

237 277 -

228 288 -

236 299 -

Paid -up Capital Statutory Reserves Voluntary Reserves Dividend Declared Unrealize Gain On AFS Investment Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment Retained Earnings Total Shareholders Equity Total Equity & Liability

325 118 27 0.5 (7) 52 515 764

325 120 30 4.8 (2) 24 502 719

325 141 50 15.6 (2) 137 667 964

325 154 64 17 (2) 177 735 1,120

325 172 81 17 (2) 228 822 1,336

325 191 100 17 (2) 284 915 1,431

325 210 119 18 (2) 341 1,012 1,547

Cash Flow from Operating Activities Cash Flow from Investing Activities Cash Flow from Financing Activities Change in Cash Net Cash at End

3 8 (34) (24) 83

57 (44) (49) (36) 50

195 128 (50) 273 323

101 (28) 8 80 331

180 (84) 10 106 342

194 (93) 9 109 350

225 (98) 32 159 382

Current Ratio (x) 2.5 2.8 Quick Ratio (x) 1.4 1.7 Gross Profit Margin 31.9% 28.5% Operating Margin 6.8% 6.9% Net Profit Margin 6.5% 3.1% Return on Average Assets 7.7% 3.8% Return on Average Equity 11.4% 5.6% EBITDA Margin 16.8% 8.5% Liabilities / Total Asset (x) 0.3 0.3 EV/Revenues (x) 1.1 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 9.4 EPS (SAR) 1.8 0.9 Book Value Per Share (SAR) 15.9 15.5 Market Price (SAR) * 33.0 24.1 Market Capitalization (SAR mn) 1,072.5 783.3 Dividend Yield 0.0% 6.2% P/E Ratio (x) 18.7 27.6 P/BV Ratio (x) 2.1 1.6 Source: Company Reports & Glob al Research * Market price for 2011 and sub sequent years as per closing prices on Feb 07, 2011

3.1 2.4 35.7% 12.4% 19.9% 24.1% 34.7% 26.8% 0.3 1.0 3.8 6.2 20.5 42.3 1,374.8 3.5% 6.8 2.1

2.8 2.0 32.4% 11.8% 11.9% 13.0% 19.4% 16.4% 0.3 0.9 5.4 4.2 22.6 41.5 1,348.8 5.0% 9.9 1.8

2.3 1.7 31.6% 14.1% 13.5% 14.2% 22.3% 17.7% 0.3 0.8 4.4 5.3 25.3 41.5 1,348.8 6.4% 7.8 1.6

2.4 1.8 32.0% 14.5% 14.0% 13.5% 21.5% 18.3% 0.4 0.7 4.1 5.8 28.1 41.5 1,348.8 6.9% 7.2 1.5

2.5 1.8 32.1% 14.6% 14.0% 13.1% 20.2% 18.2% 0.4 0.7 3.8 6.0 31.1 41.5 1,348.8 7.2% 6.9 1.3

Net Sales Revenue Cost of Sales Gross Profit Selling & Distribution Expenses General & Administration Expenses Operating Profit Unrealized Gain On Trading Investment Investment & Other Income Gain/Loss On Sale Of Investment Provisions & Write-Offs against Affiliate Receivable Financial / Bank Charges Profit Before Zakat & Minority Interest Net Income/(Loss) from Discontinuing Operation Zakat Net Profit

Ratio Analysis

Cash Flow

Balance Sheet

Income Statement

(SAR mn)

February 2011

3

Global Research - Saudi Arabia

Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company (SADAFCO)

Disclosure The following is a comprehensive list of disclosures which may or may not apply to all our researches. Only the relevant disclosures which apply to this particular research has been mentioned in the table below under the heading of disclosure. Disclosure Checklist Company Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Company

Recommendation BUY

Bloomberg Ticker SADAFCO AB

Reuters Ticker 2270.SE

Price SAR41.5

Global Research: Equity Ratings Definitions Global Rating Definition STRONG BUY Fair value of the stock is >20% from the current market price BUY Fair value of the stock is between +10% and +20% from the current market price HOLD Fair value of the stock is between +10% and -10% from the current market price SELL Fair value of the stock is < -10% from the current market price

Disclaimer This material was produced by Global Investment House - Saudia, a firm regulated by the Capital Market Authority of KSA. This document is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived by Global –Saudia from sources believed to be reliable, but Global- Saudia has not independently verified the contents of this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Global - Saudia accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Global shall have no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect of any inaccuracy in or omission from this or any other document prepared by Global- Saudia for, or sent by Global- Saudia to any person and any such person shall be responsible for conducting his own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this or other such document. Global investment house- Saudia is authorized and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. License Number 07067-37”.

February - 2011

4

Global Investment House-Saudia Website: www.globalinv.com.sa

CEO Fahad Al-Hamidi (966) 1 299 4111 [email protected] Research-Saudia Syed Taimure Akhtar (966) 1 299 4105 [email protected]

Mohammad Ali Shah (966) 1 299 4106 [email protected]

Basmah Ahmed Altuwaijri (966) 1 299 4107 [email protected]

Research-Kuwait Faisal Hasan, CFA (965) 2295-1270 [email protected]

Wealth Management-MENA & Far East Fahad Al-Ibrahim (965) 2295-1400 [email protected]

Wealth Management - Kuwait Rasha Al-Qenaei (965) 2295-1380 [email protected]

Global Kuwait Tel: (965) 2 295 1000 Fax: (965) 2 295 1005 P.O.Box 28807 Safat, 13149 Kuwait

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Global Saudi Arabia Tel: (966) 1 2994100 Fax: (966) 1 2994199 P.O. Box 66930 Riyadh 11586, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Global Saudia Wealth Manager E-mail: [email protected] Tel: (966) 1 2994159