Board Work Session November 13, 2013
Four years of downturn in economy Increased mandates and obligations Increased service impacts of population growth Increased community expectations and aspirations that determine quality of life
Mandates and obligations $10 million increase over the next five years from
VRS and Chesapeake Bay TMDL alone
Population growth & service needs Approximately 17,000 new residents projected
from 2008 through next five years of the plan
Evolving expectations and aspirations Board and community priorities, Strategic plan
initiatives
• Elimination of 66 positions during recession • Slowly building back critical core services ▪ 33 public safety/health &welfare positions ▪ net losses in all other functional areas • Current staffing at FY05 per capita level ▪ projected to fall every year of the recommended five year plan – while demands and expectations increase
Challenged to address basic needs and requirements and balance the plan within current resources Additional resources included to address mandates and the most critical capital needs
Storm water fees to offset new mandates
1 cent tax increase in years 2 and 4 of the plan
dedicated to capital
Even with additional resources, delayed response to some critical demands and significant needs remain unmet
Capital Program beyond maintenance and critical public safety capital projects $300 million in requests, only $160 million funded in
proposed plan
Organizational capacity to meet increasing demands beyond critical core health and safety Increasing demands from mandates Continuing pressure of population growth
Board and community priorities/Quality of life
•
Not next year’s budget or an adopted five-year “budget”
•
Brings together the three major components of the County budget – schools, general government, and capital
Critical process for our AAA Bond-rating
Staff presents balanced plan for Board to consider during months of Nov/Dec
Creates framework for the annual budget development
Assumptions - based on the best information available as of today
Recognize the continually evolving challenge of meeting mandates and obligations
Invest in physical infrastructure that addresses community needs and priorities
Build an agile, healthy organization with adequate capacity across all functional areas
Value character, aesthetics and distinctive assets that define our community
Focus on proactive approaches and prevention strategies
Embrace creativity and innovation
Revenue Assumptions
Expenditure Assumptions
Reserves
Proposed Use of Fund Balance
Next Steps
Revenues
Ge Calendar Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Last Year’s Assumption Current Assumptions
-0.50% 0.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.25%
Real Estate Tax Revenues = 52% of County Revenue
1.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
$160,000,000
Projection
$140,000,000
$120,000,000
$100,000,000
$80,000,000
$60,000,000
$40,000,000
$20,000,000
$0 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19
FY 15
FY 16
FY 17
FY 18
FY 19
Real Estate Taxes
1.9%
4.1%
4.2%
4.1%
4.0%
Other Property Taxes
2.2%
3.6%
3.9%
5.2%
5.2%
Other Local Taxes
5.7%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
Other Local Revenue
15.8%
9.9%
1.5%
4.9%
1.6%
Expected Inflation Rate is 2.3% - 2.5% each year State Revenues
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
Federal Revenues
3.7%
2.4%
3.4%
3.2%
3.7%
Inflation projected to range between 2.3 % to 2.5% annually
$30,000,000 Projections $25,000,000 Personal Property Tax $20,000,000
$15,000,000
Sales Tax
$10,000,000 BPOL $5,000,000
$0
Fees for Mandated Water Resource Protection ▪ Community Development fees will offset costs for VSMP mandate - $253k beginning in FY 15 ▪ Supports operating costs in Community Development
▪ Stormwater Management fee - Additional revenues required for TMDL mandate assumed at $1M per year beginning in January 2015 ▪ Supports operating costs in General Services and capital costs
Support Capital Improvement Program (CIP) Maintenance and critical public safety
requirements 1 penny on tax rate (~$1.5 M) dedicated to Capital beginning in FY 16 ▪ Current tax rate is 76.6 cents per $100
Additional 1 penny on tax rate beginning in FY 18
Revenues increasing due to improving economic condition
Additional dedicated revenues for: Water resources mandate Capital Improvement Program (CIP)
Expenditures
Addressing Obligations
Allocates 60% of new local tax revenue to the school system, after certain transfers and expenditures are deducted per formula Fiscal Year
Actual/Proj
$ Change
% Change
FY 09
$97.5M
FY 10
$97.M
($0.5M)
-0.5%
FY 11
$96.1M
($0.9M)
-1.0%
FY 12
$97.2M
$1.2M
1.2%
FY 13
$100.1M
$2.9M
2.9%
FY 14
$103.3M
$3.2M
3.2%
FY 15
$106.8M
$3.4M
3.3%
FY 16
$111.2M
$4.4M
4.1%
FY 17
$115.6M
$4.4M
4.0%
FY 18
$120.3M
$4.7M
4.1%
FY 19
$125.1M
$4.8M
4.0%
Fiscal Year
Total
$ Change
% Change
FY 09
$13.6M
FY 10
$18.0M
$4.4M
32.3%
FY 11
$18.5M
$0.4M
2.3%
FY 12
$18.1M
($0.3M)
(1.9%)
FY 13
$17.5M
($0.6M)
(3.1%)
FY 14
$16.9M
($0.6M)
(3.4%)
FY 15
$16.0M
($0.9M)
(5.4%)
FY 16
$15.6M
($0.4M)
(2.3%)
FY 17
$15.8M
$0.2M
1.0%
FY 18
$16.2M
$0.4M
2.3%
FY 19
$16.8M
$0.4M
2.5%
Fiscal Year
VRS-Related Increases
Health Insurance Increases
FY 15
$705k
$243k
FY 16
$12k
$296k
FY 17
$377k
$372k
FY 18
$30k
$401k
FY 19
$414k
$434k
VRS Retirement •FY15-FY16 – 15.59% (FY 14 rate is 13.99%) An 11% increase •FY17-FY18 – 16.59% •FY19 – 17.59% Health Insurance •Assumes increase of 8% for employee and 8% for employer for all years in the plan •Subject to potential variances in claims and future changes to Plan design
Fiscal Year FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15* FY 16** FY 17 FY 18*** FY 19
Formula Allocation $25.07 $19.71 $16.98 $17.19 $18.48 $19.00 $19.99 $22.59 $24.14 $26.45 $27.81
$ Change
% Increase
($5.36) ($2.73) $0.21 $1.28 $0.52 $0.98 $2.60 $1.55 $2.31 $1.36
-21.4% -13.8% 1.3% 7.5% 2.8% 5.2% 13.0% 6.9% 9.6% 5.1%
* Includes stormwater fees ** Includes 1 cent dedicated tax rate *** Includes additional 1 cent dedicated tax rate
Actual Transfer $24.70 $18.28 $17.80 $18.37 $26.49
Difference ($0.37) ($1.43) $0.82 $1.18 $8.01
Dedicated funding to address maintenance and other obligations such as: Maintenance and replacement needs for schools and general
government Emergency Communications Center (ECC)- radios and dispatch requirements Dam repair/water resource mandate requirements School buses School safety upgrades Court upgrades Firing range Solid Waste convenience centers Pantops Fire Rescue Sub-Station
Community development fees
Stormwater utility fees
Operating Community Development (VSMP) ▪ FY15 – 1.5 inspector, 1 engineer, and 1 OA ▪ Out Years – 2 additional inspectors
General Services (TMDL) ▪ FY15 – civil engineer and inspector (beginning Jan. 2015) ▪ Out Years – 1 additional civil engineer ▪ Supports existing water resource staff
Capital ▪ FY15 – Hollymead dam ▪ FY 18 and FY 19 – TMDL projects
Supporting Workforce Adding Capacity Health and Safety
General Government salary assumptions Fiscal Year
Percent Increase
FY 15
2%
FY 16
2.5%
FY 17
2.5%
FY 18
3%
FY 19
3%
Continues employee training funding throughout the plan
Includes funding for Fellowship and Innovation programs with one-time monies
Provides for department operational inflationary increases (e.g. for utilities, fuel) 1.7% in FY 15 2.0% in FY16
and 2.5% in FY17-FY19
◦ Applied according to need across departments
Includes the budgeting of salary “attrition” lapse ◦ 1.25% of personnel costs
Provides for operating impact of the capital projects included in the current Adopted CIP
Employees per capita at 2005 level County population increased 8,200 since 2005 and is anticipated to increase by 9,800 more by the end of the
next five years
Facing capacity challenges, such as : Addressing Police needs Meeting water resources mandates Grant periods ending for Fire/Rescue personnel 82% increase in number of children in foster care between 2012 and 2013 133% increase in caseload volume for CSA in past year 29% increase (99,285 sq ft) in new buildings to maintain Meeting only 37% of mandated fire inspection workload
FY15
FY16
5.5 water resources
1 water resources
FY17
FY19
9.5
1 HR specialist 2 police officers
3 police officers
1 existing fire training instructor 7 existing firefighters
Total New Positions
2 water resources
Mandated
Core Health & Safety Positions
FY18
2 police officers
3 police officers
2 police officers
1 foster care worker
14
1 foster care worker 1 building inspector
1 EMS cost recovery analyst
Health & Safety Support Building Maintenance New Positions
1 CSA coordinator
1 fire marshal 5
1 police records clerk 1 maintenance mechanic
9.5
4
4
9
1 3
29.5
Plan funds 7 existing Fire/Rescue positions to maintain current level of service FEMA grant funding expiring in FY 15 Anticipates some potential for grant extension for 2 employees Anticipates continued and increasing volunteer support Assumes all positions will be maintained through attrition (no layoffs)
Plan provides funding for one currently grant-funded Fire/Rescue Volunteer Trainer
Plan provides 4% annual increase for Fire Rescue volunteer stations
Plan provides for 13 additional positions to keep pace with population growth FY 15 – 2 officers
FY 16 – 3 officers ▪ Ability to move to 10 hour shifts at this time ▪ Moves County forward towards GeoPolicing Model FY 17 – 2 officers FY 18 – 3 officers,
1 police records clerk FY 19 – 2 officers
Five Year Financial Plan:
Public Safetyrelated and contractual agencies
Such as: BRJDC, Jail, ECC, SPCA, CACVB
Provides for anticipated costs and contracts
Core Agencies
Such as: CAT, JAUNT, Health Department, JMRL
2% increase in FY 15 and 3% increase per year in out years*
New Northside Library
New Library Location
$212k for full year net impact, $141k for partial year in FY 15
ABRT/cultural agencies
Such as: Boys and Girls Club… Municipal Band
2% increase for all years of the Plan*
*Percentage not applied equally across agencies
Plan provides:
Undesignated General Fund fund balance of 10% reserve maintained throughout the plan
$250,000 operating contingency reserve
$100,000 fuel contingency
$250,000 economic development fund
$100,000 grants leveraging fund
Fellowship and innovation funds
Unaudited June 30, 2013 Fund Balance
$ 35,285,254
Less 10% unassigned fund balance reserve
$ (28,046,438)
Approved and Planned Uses of Fund Balance FY 14 Appropriated Use of Fund Balance Anticipated FY 14 Transfer to CIP Anticipated FY 14 Appropriations of Fund Balance Revenue Contingency Anticipated FY 15 Use of Fund Balance Subtotal, Approved and Planned Use of Fund Balance Additional Funds Anticipated to be Available for Capital
$ $ $ $ $
2,075,033 1,000,000 300,000 500,000 1,129,526 $
(5,004,559)
$
2,234,257
Is balanced based on current tax rate in FY 15, and supports mandates and the Capital Program by the addition of dedicated revenues: one penny on tax rate dedicated to Capital beginning in FY 16 , additional penny beginning in FY 18 (corrected bullet) revenues for water resources mandate
Funds required obligations, mandates and commitments
Provides operating funds to open Northside Library
Works towards addressing the most critical health/safety and mandated capacity issues over the next 5 year period
Continues reserves and sound financial policies to protect AAA rating
Core-service and Capital needs such as: Workload-related needs identified by County departments New school and local government capital projects Transportation Revenue Sharing Police Department staffing needs - It doesn’t: Provide staffing at level identified in Comp Plan Fully address growth in calls for services Fully implement geo-policing model Potential emerging needs such as: • Emerging capital needs • Unfunded mandates Long-term Quality of Life items, such as: • Items identified to address Strategic Plan goals • ACE, Parks, greenways, Master Plan implementation…
Five Year Financial Plan:
November 14 – School Division’s Five Year Plan Presentation
December 4 – Five Year Plan Board Work Session
December 11 – Five Year Plan Board Work Session
Capital Improvement Plan:
December 12 – CIP Work Session – Board/School Board