Sectoral Review – Cattle & Beef
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
2
Sectoral Review & Outlook
6
- Cattle and Beef
6
- Pigmeat
17
- Sheep and Sheepmeat
21
Market Performance
26
Global & EU Market Prospects
49
EU Enlargement 2007
60
Statistical Appendix
64
1
Executive Summary Review of 2006 The Irish Meat and Livestock Sector performed strongly in 2006 with the value of exports rising by 10 per cent to almost €2.4bn. The principal export growth was evident in beef followed by pigmeat and livestock, which helped offset a fall in the value of sheepmeat exports.
Beef
•
The value of Irish beef exports increased by 14 per cent in 2006 to reach almost €1.53 billion. Improved market returns combined with a rise of over five per cent in meat plant supplies boosted the value of exports.
•
Exports of beef to European markets recorded their fifth successive year of growth, rising by six per cent to almost 480,000 tonnes or 93 per cent of total shipments. Higher import requirements in key markets together with the growing profile of Irish beef among premium beef customers across Europe helped boost trade.
•
Shipments to the UK eased slightly to around 250,000 tonnes cwe with a value of €750 million. This represents just under 50 per cent of the total. Irish exports were helped by lower chilled imports from South America and the slower than anticipated build up of UK cow supplies.
•
Sales to other EU markets grew by a further 20 per cent to reach an all time high of almost 230,000 tonnes and were worth an estimated €675 million. This leaves exports over 70,000 tonnes ahead of the levels achieved in the mid 1990’s. Market returns were helped by somewhat lower cattle supplies across the Continent and a reduced presence of South American chilled beef for much of the year. Higher shipments were recorded to all key markets.
•
Exports to International markets were boosted by an improved demand from Russia for much of the year, which led to shipments rising by 11 per cent to 30,000 tonnes cwe. Overall, exports to International markets were three per cent higher at 38,000 tonnes cwe despite a slowdown towards year end.
•
Average cattle prices increased by eight per cent in 2006. All categories of cattle witnessed higher prices with R3 steer prices rising by seven per cent to €2.82/kg dw excl. VAT while R3 heifer prices were six per cent higher. Cow prices performed strongly with O3 grade prices increasing by 11 per cent to €2.31/kg dw excl. VAT.
Pigmeat
•
The value of Irish pigmeat exports increased by five per cent in 2006 to reach €250 million. Improved market returns led to average pig prices rising by over seven per cent to €1.40/kg dw excl. VAT. This more than offset a drop of four per cent in export volumes at 109,000 tonnes cwe.
Executive Summary
2
•
The UK continues to account for almost 50 per cent of exports at 51,000 tonnes cwe. This represents a drop of five per cent on 2005 levels, reflecting a slow start to the year when the market was well supplied. However, tightening EU supplies as the year progressed boosted demand for Irish pigmeat.
•
Shipments to other EU markets were three per cent lower at 32,000 tonnes cwe. Germany remained the key market at 14,000 tonnes while increased shipments to France at 6,000 tonnes helped offset lower trade to other markets.
•
Exports to International markets were largely maintained during 2006 at 26,000 tonnes cwe. Japan remained the key market at 12,000 tonnes while exports to Russia increased by a factor of four to 8,000 tonnes cwe. This reflected reduced competition from Brazil on the market for much of the year due to foot and mouth restrictions.
Sheepmeat
•
The value of Irish sheepmeat exports were around five per cent lower in 2006 at an estimated €180m. A drop of seven per cent in export volumes was partly offset by a modest rise in lamb prices during the year.
•
The French market continues to account for 58 per cent of total exports at an estimated 31,500 tonnes. This represents a drop of six per cent on 2005 levels.
•
Diversification of exports continued during the year with shipments to Northern Europe rising by over 20 per cent to almost 4,000 tonnes. This helped to offset a slowdown of 10 per cent in exports to the UK due to lower ewe supplies.
•
Irish sheepmeat consumption performed strongly during the year recording a rise of three per cent to reach an estimated 20,500 tonnes, accounting for almost 30 per cent of total output.
•
Irish lamb prices increased by two per cent in 2006 to stand at €3.45/kg dw excl. VAT. The sluggish nature of the French market during the year combined with ongoing low returns for lamb skins and edible offal reduced the potential for any further price increase.
Live Animals •
Irish live cattle exports increased by 35 per cent during the year to reach 250,000 head, worth some €145 million. The principal drivers of this increase were a strong rise in calf and weanling shipments. Strong growth was recorded in exports to Italy, Spain, Holland, France and Belgium.
•
Live exports of pigs to Northern Ireland eased by an estimated eight per cent in 2006 to 480,000 head. This reflects lower overall finished pig supplies and improved Irish pig prices.
•
Exports of live sheep increased slightly to 100,000 head. Trade was helped by a good ewe trade to Britain and lamb exports to Northern Ireland.
Executive Summary
3
Outlook for 2007 Beef
•
The strong live exports of calves and weanlings in 2005/06 combined with a modest decline in calf registrations is expected to reduce finished cattle availability throughout 2007. However, this will be partly offset by a carryover of steers from late 2006.
•
Irish export meat plant cattle supplies in 2007 are expected to be in the range 1.6 – 1.63 million head. This represents a fall of up to five per cent relative to 2006. Most of the fall is anticipated in male cattle supplies with female disposals expected to hold up better.
•
The prospects for the market environment facing Irish beef exports in 2007 remain broadly positive. Tightening Irish cattle supplies combined with an increasing shortfall between EU beef production and consumption should provide a solid market environment for Irish beef.
•
Little change is anticipated in UK import requirements as cow supplies increase. However, much of this is likely to be offset by a drop of four per cent in UK prime cattle availability. Ireland is well positioned to increase its share of UK prime beef requirements.
•
In terms of Continental EU markets, lower Irish supplies are expected to reduce trade levels somewhat. However, given the prospects of tighter supplies across Europe, market demand for Irish beef looks set to remain strong.
•
The principal uncertainty facing the EU market is the level of restrictions on exports of Brazilian beef to the EU. Little change is expected until at least after an EU veterinary visit to Brazil in early spring. If restrictions are lifted, it could impact strongly on the steak cut trade in particular across the EU.
Pigmeat
•
Little change is expected in Irish pig supplies in 2007, reflecting a stable breeding herd. Meat plant supplies look set to be maintained at around 2.6 million head.
•
Pigmeat is likely to face renewed pressure from poultry across the EU as it regains market share. Also, any further strengthening of the euro against the US dollar would reduce the competitiveness of EU pigmeat on world markets as would a return to full market access for Brazilian pigmeat in Russia. However, consumer demand within the EU looks set to remain stable.
•
Given this background, the prospects for Irish pigmeat exports are less positive with profitability at producer level likely to come under pressure from rising feed prices as the year progresses. Also, the nitrates directive is likely to have an impact on costs from the second half of 2007.
Executive Summary
4
•
The UK market looks set to remain competitive given the rise in supplies likely from suppliers such as France and Spain. Trade to International markets is also likely to slow reflecting increased competition from the United States, Canada and Brazil.
•
The outlook for the Irish market is that demand levels are likely to remain steady with the domestic market expected to consume around 150,000 tonnes in 2007 accounting for half of total Irish output.
Sheepmeat
•
Irish sheep availability is expected to decline by up to eight per cent in 2007 reflecting strong ewe lamb disposals since the introduction of decoupled payments. This will impact on lamb supplies over the coming years. Cull ewe supplies are also expected to moderate. The strongest decline is expected in the first quarter of 2007, reflecting a lower carryover of lambs from 2006.
•
Exports are expected to decline in line with supplies. France will continue to remain the key market with their import requirements likely to be maintained in 2007. Sales to Northern European markets look set to continue strongly helped by a further rise in the proportion of exports in cut form.
•
Competition from New Zealand looks set to remain strong throughout 2007. After slowing in recent years, the volume of chilled New Zealand sheepmeat exports to the EU increased by almost 30 per cent in 2006. Some further growth is anticipated in 2007.
•
The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU will boost sheepmeat availability although both these markets were already actively trading with the EU, particularly in live lambs.
Live Animals
•
The outlook for Irish live cattle exports look reasonably good for 2007. However, exports of calves are likely to come under increased pressure from more competitively priced UK calf exports while overall demand for calves is likely to moderate from the strong levels evident in the early part of 2006.
•
Any decline in calf exports could be offset by an ongoing demand for weanlings and store cattle in Spain and Italy. Current shipping capacity in Ireland has resulted in a regular service with weather the only restricting factor. This situation looks set to continue into 2007.
Executive Summary
5
Sectoral Review – Cattle & Beef Cattle disposals 150,000 head higher Overall, cattle disposals in 2006 were at their highest level for three years at just over two million cattle. This increase in disposals of over eight per cent reflects an increase in the throughput of cattle at export meat pants combined with a strong live trade for calves and weanlings during the year. The key trends in disposals during 2006 were as follows:
A rise of over five per cent in export meat plant supplies.
A 35 per cent increase in live exports, principally to Continental EU markets.
Stabilisation in local abattoir supplies.
The increased supplies of prime cattle at export meat plants reflects both the lower levels of calf and weanling live exports and higher calf registrations in 2004. Supplies were further boosted by a higher carryover of prime cattle from the end of 2005 into 2006. Similar to 2005, the live trade in 2006 experienced a strong interest for young Irish cattle, reflecting a good continental demand and a competitive price position. Live calf exports were boosted by the very strong veal demand evident throughout the first half of 2006.
Irish Cattle Disposals, 2006 vs. 2005 (‘000 head) 2005
2006(e)
% Ch
Total
1,871
2,022
+8.1
Export Meat Plants
1,606
1,692
+5.4
Live Exports
185
250
+35.0
Local Abattoirs
80
80
n/c
Export Meat Plant Supplies over 5% Higher Cattle supplies at export meat plants increased by 86,000 head in 2006 to reach just over 1.69 million head. All of the increase in supplies was evident in the first half of the year when disposals were 97,000 head or 13 per cent ahead of corresponding 2005 levels. This reflected a carryover of cattle from 2005, increased availability due to a slow live trade in 2004 and an increased level of meal feeding. Supplies in the second half were broadly similar to 2005 up until December when numbers tightened considerably. This indicates some producers may have decided to carry forward cattle into 2007. Overall, prime cattle supplies were over five per cent higher in 2006 at just over 1.3 million head. In terms of the different categories of cattle, the following are the principal trends evident:
Heifers
Supplies were 56,000 head or 15 per cent above year earlier levels at 418,000 head. This reflects two key factors, namely:
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
6
1) 45,000 fewer under 12 month heifers were shipped live in 2004 compared to 2003. 2) Almost 13,000 more female calves were registered in the same year. 3) Lower intake to suckler herd due to little build up.
Steers
Steer throughput was 26,000 head above 2005 at 811,000 head, reflecting: 1) 11,000 less males under 12 months shipped live in 2004 compared to 2003 2) Almost 14,000 more male calf registrations recorded in the same year, and 3) Absence of live exports to international markets following the withdrawal of export refunds. In 2005, just under 9,500 male cattle were shipped to the Lebanon.
Young Bulls
Young bull supplies declined by around 16,000 head (-16%) during the year reflecting a return to more traditional disposal levels following a strong rise in 2005 as producers availed of the bull premium prior to the introduction of the single farm payment.
Cows
Cow throughput during the year increased by around five per cent to 358,000 head. This increase in supplies reflects a continued marginal decline in the cow herd and the highest cow prices since 1995 encouraging some producers to cull, especially in the first half of the year.
Irish Export Meat Plant Supplies, 2006 vs. 2005 (‘000 head) 100 80
86
60
56
40 20
26 16
0
-16 -20 -40 Total
Heifers
Steers
Cows
Y Bulls
More Stable Disposal Pattern Emerging In 2006, the principal jump in cattle supplies was evident in the first half of the year as shown in the graph below. This indicates the continued movement of farmers away for the traditional peak period of supply. This shift is a result of either a carryover through the winter months or actively finishing cattle earlier to avail of better returns.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
7
With census/retention dates to qualify for stocking densities and premium now eliminated through decoupling, farmers are no longer focussed on dates, and can carry animals for longer or shorter periods than they might previously have done. Almost 47 per cent of export meat plant steer throughput was seen in the first half of the year compared to less than 44 per cent in 2005. This equates to a difference of almost 20,000 steers.
Weekly supplies of prime cattle, 2005-2006 (head) 40,000 2005
35,000 30,000 Trend line 2006
25,000 Trend line 2005
20,000
2006
15,000
10,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Carcase Weights Stabilise Following two years of significant increases, average carcase weights stabilised in 2006. Average steer weights remained at around 351 kgs while heifer weights also showed little change at 287kgs. Young bull weights improved further on 2005 levels to average 362kgs, almost 11 kgs or three per cent higher than year earlier levels. Cow weights however eased back to 301kgs, following a nine kilo jump in 2005 to 304kgs. Steadier carcase weights could imply a more structured approach to production cycles at farm level as producers settle into a decoupled production system.
Average carcase weights at export meat plants, 2006 vs. 2005 (kgs) 2005
2006(e)
% Change
Steers
352
351
-0.3
Young Bulls
351
362
+3.2
Cows
304
301
-1.0
Heifers
286
287
+0.3
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
8
Conformation Results According to Department of Agriculture & Food figures, the classification of steers in 2006 showed a modest decline in overall conformation, although fat scoring did improve. This largely reflects the reduced live exports of dairy type animals in 2004, which boosted finished supplies of these cattle in 2006. Overall just 49 per cent of steers graded R or above, compared to 52 per cent in 2005. In terms of fat score, a total of 55 per cent of steers graded 3 compared to 52 per cent in 2005. This may reflect the increased level of meal feeding reported in 2006. With regard to heifers, little change was evident in conformation with almost 60 per cent grading R or better, compared to 63 per cent in 2005.
Irish Steer Classification, 2005 – 2006 (%) 2005
2006
U
R
O
URO
U
R
O
URO
2
0.7
3.4
4.5
8.6
2
0.8
4.1
6.1
11.0
3
3.2
21.6
23.0
47.8
3
3.2
22.0
25.2
50.4
4
2.2
19.6
12.9
34.7
4
2.0
15.9
11.2
29.1
2-4
6.1
44.6
40.4
91.1
2-4
6.0
42.0
42.5
90.5
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Market Distribution of Irish Beef As a result of the increase in cattle supplies, the volume of “commercial” beef produced at export meat plants increased by over five per cent to 548,000 tonnes in 2006. With local abattoir production standing at around 21,000 tonnes, total “commercial” beef production is estimated to have reached 569,000 tonnes. Given a relatively steady level of beef imports, the overall volume of beef available for the year reached 602,000 tonnes, an increase of over 27,000 tonnes on year earlier levels.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
9
Distribution of Irish “Commercial” Beef Production, 2006(e) – Tonnes cwe* Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
548,000t
21,000t
Total Production 569,000t
Beef Imports 33,000t
Total Beef Availability 602,000t
Exports
Consumption
516,000t
86,000t
* excludes animals removed under BSE control programmes
Domestic market consumption remains steady Consumption in the domestic market remained firm throughout 2006 at an estimated 86,000 tonnes. Retail sales preformed similar to 2005, although like many markets throughout Europe, sales were boosted slightly by a combination of better weather in the early part of the summer prompting an earlier BBQ season, and some consumers increasing beef purchases following the outbreaks of Avian Influenza across the Continent in the early part of the year. The foodservice market again posted good returns, and continues to account for almost 30 per cent of beef sales.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
10
Exports Increase in line with Supplies The increase of over five per cent in export meat plant supplies boosted export supplies in 2006, which reached 516,000 tonnes. This represents the highest level of beef exports since 1999. Exports to Continental EU markets reached an all time high level of almost 230,000 tonnes, rising by just under 20 per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. Sales to the Continent were helped by a higher import demand in key markets and a good consumer demand for beef. Irish beef continued to enhance its positions in key markets and is now listed with more multiple retail chains in more EU markets than beef of any other national origin. Despite the return of UK Over Thirty Month beef to the food chain, Irish exports to UK continued to perform strongly with shipments for the year reaching an estimated 250,000 tonnes. This represents a drop of just 10,000 tonnes on 2005 levels. Overall 93 per cent of beef exports remained in the EU, while 38,000 tonnes or seven per cent was shipped to International markets, principally Russia. Despite the lower export refunds prevailing, Russia remained a steady alternative outlet for forequarter cuts for almost nine months of the year, before increased market pressure in the form of cheaper South American product restricted the trade towards year end. However, shipments to Russia for the year are estimated to have increased by 11 per cent to 30,000 tonnes.
Distribution of Irish Beef Exports, 2006 vs. 2005 (‘000t cwe) 300
2005
250
2006(e)
200 150 100 50 0 UK
Cont. EU
Int. Mkts
Value of Beef Exports increase by 14% to over €1.5 billion Increased export volumes combined with better market returns boosted the value of Irish beef exports by an estimated 14 per cent in 2006 to around €1.53 billion. This represents a rise of almost €190 million on 2005 levels.
UK Market The anticipated decline in volumes of Irish beef post the return of UK cow beef to the food chain failed to appear to any significant degree in 2006. While volumes did ease back by around 10,000 tonnes, this reflected stronger continental demand and better positioning by Irish processors rather than a lack of UK demand. At retail level, Irish beef further consolidated its
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
11
position during the year with increased retailer interest in Irish beef as UK prime cattle supplies continue to contract. The market itself preformed well for the most of the year from an Irish perspective and reflected two key factors, the slower than anticipated exit of cows from farms to enter the food chain, and the lower availability of chilled steak cuts from South America on the market. These factors helped demand for both UK and Irish product, particularly at foodservice level. However despite the relatively good trade for the most part of the year, the final quarter experienced a slowdown in consumer spending. As a result, retail demand eased back somewhat.
All Time High Exports to Continental EU Following on from the significant progress made in 2005, almost 40,000 tonnes cwe more Irish beef was shipped to continental EU markets in 2006. This reflects the increased demand from the continent as domestic supplies decline and the significant efforts by the industry to develop retail and foodservice customers for Irish beef.
Irish Beef Exports to Continental EU, 1997 to date (‘000t cwe) 250 200 150 100 50 0 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06(f)
Key Continental Markets for Irish Beef Irish Beef Exports to Italy ('000t cwe)
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Irish Beef Exports to France ('000t cwe)
0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
Sectoral Review & Outlook
'05
'06(f)
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
Cattle and Beef
'06(f)
12
45
Irish Beef Exports to Holland ('000t cwe)
40
40
35
35
30
30
Irish Beef Exports to Scandinavia ('000t cwe)
25
25
20
20
15
15 10
10
5
5
0
0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06(f)
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06(f)
After an exceptional year in 2005, the rate of growth in exports to France eased back slightly in 2006, to around 19 per cent for the year, reaching 52,000 tonnes cwe. Further progress was made in growing the volume of Irish beef sold by French supermarkets. Exports to Italy grew by 9,000 tonnes during 2006 to reach an estimated 51,000 tonnes. This represents the fifth successive year of increased exports of Irish beef to the market. The market itself remained well supplied throughout the year, although the partial absence of large volumes of cheaper chilled steak cuts from South America was noticeable. In the Netherlands, shipments increased to 45,000 tonnes in 2006, a rise of 13 per cent on year earlier levels. This reflects the strong relationships that have been developed with Dutch customers over the last number of years. Trade to Scandinavia also increased significantly to reach 40,000 tonnes. Exports were boosted by a good demand for cow beef, with the strongest trade reported for manufacturing and mincing product.
International markets steady despite refund cuts Exports to international markets increased by an estimated three per cent in 2006 to 38,000 tonnes. Over 80 per cent of this trade was with Russia, which was 11 per cent higher than 2005 levels. This reflects a strong trade up to August in particular, despite lower export refunds towards the end of 2005. However as the year progressed, the Russian market for beef became more competitive with increased domestic and South American supplies on the market. The other principal international outlet for Irish beef continued to be Algeria at over 5,000 tonnes.
Live Cattle Exports 35 per cent higher Live cattle exports reached 250,000 head in 2006, up by 65,000 head on year earlier levels. The value of this trade is estimated at just over €145m.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
13
Irish Live Cattle Exports, 2000 to date (‘000 head) 450
UK
400
Int. Mkts
350
Cont. EU
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
The principal drivers of this increase were a strong rise in calf and weanling shipments. A very strong veal market combined with tight supplies from other exporters boosted Irish calf exports, particularly in the first half of the year. For the year as a whole, calf exports reached almost 105,000 head, some 69 per cent ahead of 2005 levels. The key markets were Holland at 52,000 head and Spain at 23,000 head. Exports of weanlings and store cattle also increased strongly reflecting an improving feedlot demand from Spain and Italy with 130,000 head shipped for the year as a whole. This compares with 108,000 head in 2005. The key destinations were Italy at 60,000 head and Spain at 48,000 head, with both taking an equal mix of male and female cattle. Over recent years, Italy has increasingly been the target for better bred weanlings and stores. This is particularly true of the autumn born stock, which become available at a time when prices are highest and demand is strong. Trade to Northern Ireland was maintained during the year at 28,000 head. Most of this trade was in stores/weanlings but also some finished cattle were exported for direct processing as the year progressed reflecting an improved beef trade in Northern Ireland.
Irish cattle prices average eight per cent higher in 2006 Average cattle prices increased by eight per cent in 2006, with all categories of cattle reporting higher prices. Overall, R3 steers averaged €2.82 cent/kg dw excl VAT. This was just over seven per cent higher than the 2005 average, or 19 cent/kg dw excl VAT. By mid year the average price was €2.86 /kg dw excl VAT, which was just three per cent above the same period in 2005 while prices in the second half were almost 12 per cent higher on average.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
14
Irish R3 Steer Prices, 2004 to 2006 (€/kg dw excl VAT) 3.5
3.0
2006
2.5
2004 2005
2.0
1.5 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
For heifers a similar situation was evident with prices for R3 heifers over six per cent higher at €2.84 /kg dw excl VAT. Similar to steers, the largest increase was evident during the August to October period. Cow prices were much stronger throughout the year, building on the momentum gained in the last quarter of 2005. The strong manufacturing trade across the UK and Continental Europe helped prices, which were 11 per cent higher for the year at €2.31/kg for O3 cows.
Outlook 2007 The strong live exports of calves and weanlings in 2005/06 combined with a modest decline in calf registrations is expected to reduce finished cattle availability throughout 2007. In 2005, an additional 46,000 male calves and weanlings were exported live. Calf registrations in the same year fell by 21,000 head. In addition, the strong exports of weanlings and store cattle to Italy in 2006 could also reduce finished cattle supplies. Given the strong reduction in steer supplies during December 2006, it is likely that there was at least the same number of finished cattle carried forward into the spring as was the case last year. The size of this carryover will have particular relevance for steer disposals in the first quarter of 2007. All things considered, Irish export meat plant cattle supplies in 2007 are expected to be in the range 1.6 – 1.63 million head, down 60-90,000 head on 2006. Most of the fall is anticipated in male cattle supplies with female disposals expected to hold up well. Lower finished cattle supplies will reduce beef exports by 4 to 5 per cent to in around 490,000 tonnes. The prospects for the market environment facing Irish beef exports in 2007 remain broadly positive. Tightening Irish cattle supplies combined with an increasing shortfall between EU beef production and consumption should provide a solid market environment for Irish beef. Little change is anticipated in UK import requirements as cow supplies increase. However, much of this is likely to be offset by a drop of four per cent in UK prime cattle availability. Ireland is well
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
15
positioned to increase its share of UK prime beef requirements. In terms of Continental EU markets, lower Irish supplies are expected to reduce trade levels somewhat. However, given the prospects of tighter supplies across Europe, market demand for Irish beef looks set to remain strong. Trade to International markets will be largely dictated by the level of demand for EU beef from Russia and the strength of competition from South American suppliers in particular. The principal uncertainty facing the EU market in 2007 is the level of restrictions on exports of Brazilian beef to the EU. Little change is expected in current restrictions until after an EU veterinary visit to Brazil in March 2007. If restrictions were lifted, it could impact strongly on the steak cut trade in particular. However, overall shipments from Brazil in 2006 were only two per cent lower than 2005 levels while chilled beef sales were seven per cent lower. However, with EU consumption set to remain stable, solid trading conditions for Irish beef look set to be maintained. The outlook for Irish live cattle exports look reasonably good for 2007. However, exports of calves in particular could come under increased pressure from more competitively priced UK calf exports with recent forecasts from the UK suggesting live exports could reach as high as 200,000 head in 2007. Overall import demand for calves is likely to moderate on the Continent as veal demand returns to more historical levels. Any decline in calf exports could be offset by an ongoing demand for weanlings and store cattle in Spain and Italy. However, this could also depend to some extent on the level of UK exports. Current shipping capacity in Ireland has resulted in a regular service with weather the major restricting factor and this situation looks set to continue into 2007. New regulations on welfare of livestock in transit are due to come into force in early 2007. However, the high standards of transport in place in Ireland should mean minimum modification is necessary.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
16
Pigs and Pigmeat Disposals remain steady Total pig disposals in the Republic of Ireland fell by just over one per cent during 2006 to 3.12 million head. Within the total, supplies at export meat plants were unchanged at just under 2.62 million head as was local abattoir throughput at around 25,000 head. The drop in overall disposals reflects a slow down in live exports to Northern Ireland, which are estimated to have eased by eight per cent to 480,000 head. This reflects the relatively tight supply situation in Ireland and the improved prices available.
Irish Pig Disposals, 2006 Vs 2005 (‘000 head) TOTAL - Export Meat Plants
2005
2006(e)
% Change
3,163
3,124
-1.3
2,618
2,619
0.0
520
480
-8.0
25
25
0.0
- Live Exports - Local Abattoirs
Distribution of Irish Pigmeat Production The volume of Irish pigmeat production in 2006 is estimated to have shown a modest rise in 2006 to 206,000 tonnes cwe. Overall production was boosted by an increased number of sows and boars being processed, which increased the volume of pigmeat produced as little change was reported in average carcase weights of finished pigs. Within this figure, export approved plants continue to account for 99 per cent of the total at 204,000 tonnes with around 2,000 tonnes produced at local abattoirs.
Irish Pigmeat Production, 2000 to 2006 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
Irish pigmeat imports slowed down during 2006, with a drop of almost 10 per cent estimated for the year at 53,000 tonnes cwe. This reflects a stronger market demand for pigmeat across Europe, which reduced export levels by some key suppliers to Ireland in recent years. A
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
17
considerable proportion of imports coming into Ireland continue to be destined for further processing and eventual re-export as part of a final product. When imports are combined with domestic availability it leaves almost 260,000 tonnes cwe of pigmeat available either for domestic consumption or export. This represents a fall of just under two per cent on 2005 levels with a slight rise in meat plant production being offset by lower import volumes. Irish pigmeat consumption performed well throughout 2006, helped by a solid demand for bacon in particular, with pork sales also holding well. There continues to be a shift in sales toward more value added and convenience options. When foodservice and sales of processed pigmeat are taken into account, total Irish pigmeat consumption for 2006 is estimated at almost 150,000 tonnes cwe. Given the stable domestic consumption situation, and the slightly lower overall availability, the volume of pigmeat available for export is estimated to have declined by over three per cent to 109,000 tonnes cwe.
Distribution of Irish Pigmeat Production, 2006 (e) – Tonnes cwe Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
204,000t
2,000t
Total Production 206,000t
Pigmeat Imports 53,000t
Total Pigmeat Availability 259,000t
Exports
Consumption
109,000t
150,000t
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
18
Irish Pigmeat Exports 5% higher at €250m The value of Irish pigmeat exports during 2006 is estimated to have increased by five per cent to €250 million, helped by an improved EU market for pigmeat, which boosted returns. Relatively tight EU supplies helped Irish exports to all major EU markets. Trade to International markets was largely maintained. The UK remains the principal destination for Irish pigmeat although exports are estimated to have fallen by five per cent in 2006 to 51,000 tonnes cwe. Having started the year slowly, strengthening demand on the Continent as the year progressed tightened supplies on the UK market, which boosted trade levels from the late spring to autumn period. In terms of Continental EU markets, Germany continues to be the main market with shipments of 14,000 tonnes cwe in 2006. German production increased strongly during 2006. However, the hot summer combined with the World Cup boosted pigmeat sales, which helped maintain Irish exports. Other important Continental markets for Irish pigmeat in 2006 included France at 6,000 tonnes, helped by increased sales of manufacturing product, and Italy at 3,000 tonnes. Exports to International markets were largely maintained during 2006 at 26,000 tonnes cwe. Japan continued to be the key market with exports for the year holding reasonably well at 12,000 tonnes cwe despite high stock levels on the market for much of the year. Trade to Russia improved strongly reflecting reduced competition from Brazil with exports anticipated to reach almost 8,000 tonnes cwe for the year. Exports to Hong Kong were maintained while shipments to the United States slowed.
Irish Pigmeat Exports, 2006 Vs 2005 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 2005
2006(e)
% Change
113
109
-3
- United Kingdom
54
51
-5
- Other EU
33
32
-3
- International Markets
26
26
n/c
TOTAL
(e) 2006 figure estimated
Irish Pig Prices increase by 7% Improved market demand combined with relatively tight pig supplies resulted in Irish grade ‘E’ pig prices rising by over seven per cent in 2006 to €1.40/kg dw excl. VAT. This left Irish prices at 96 per cent of the EU average, which compares favourably with 94 per cent in 2005. Towards the end of the year, Irish prices surpassed the EU average for a number of weeks as the EU trade was disrupted by blue tongue restrictions in key markets combined with relatively tight supplies in Ireland.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
19
Irish Grade ‘E’ Pig Prices, 2006 Vs 2005 (€/kg dw excl. VAT) 1.8
1.6
2006 2005
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Outlook for 2007 Little change is expected in Irish pig supplies in 2007, reflecting a stable breeding herd. Meat plant supplies look set to be maintained at around 2.6 million head. Only minor changes are expected in EU pigmeat production and consumption while increased trade is expected with Bulgaria and Romania following their accession to the EU. However, pigmeat is likely to face renewed pressure from poultry as it regains market share. Also, any further strengthening of the euro against the US dollar would reduce the competitiveness of EU pigmeat on world markets as would a return to full market access for Brazilian pigmeat in Russia. Given this background, this may lead to a more competitive market environment for Irish pigmeat. The prospects of higher feed prices as the year progresses will lead to higher production costs at producer level with the nitrates directive also likely to impact on costs from the second half of 2007. The UK market looks set to remain competitive given the rise in supplies likely from suppliers such as France and Spain. Trade to International markets is also likely to slow reflecting increased competition from the United States, Canada and Brazil. Demand on the domestic market looks set to remain reasonably steady at around 150,000 tonnes.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
20
Sheep and Sheepmeat Disposals Total Irish sheep disposals in 2006 at 3.58 million head were over three per cent lower than 2005 levels reflecting a drop of four per cent in export meat plant supplies. This fall more than offset reasonably steady local abattoir supplies and live exports.
Irish Sheep Disposals, 2006 vs 2005 (‘000 head) 2005
2006(e)
% Change
TOTAL
3,705
3,578
-3.4
- Export Meat Plants
3,280
3,148
-4.0
95
100
+5.3
330
330
0
- Live Exports - Local Abattoirs
Lamb supplies at export meat plants were higher than expected during 2006 given the sharp fall in the breeding ewe flock throughout 2005. Throughput was helped by an increased level of ewe lamb/ewe hogget disposals. However, this will impact on supply levels from 2007 as these animals traditionally would have gone for breeding. Lamb supplies showed a modest rise for much of the year before easing back during the autumn months. Ewe supplies at export meat plants eased by 60,000 head or 12 per cent during 2006 to 455,000 head. This followed the strong disposals evident in 2005 and may indicate the first signs of stabilisation in the breeding flock with less productive animals now culled. Local abattoir supplies remained at around 330,000 head while live exports were marginally higher at 100,000 head, helped by a good ewe trade to Britain and lamb exports to Northern Ireland.
Monthly Lamb Supplies at Export Meat Plants, 2004 to 2006 (head) 350,000
2004
300,000
2005 2006
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sheepmeat
21
Distribution of Irish Sheepmeat Production The drop in export meat plant supplies combined with little change in average carcase weights led to overall sheepmeat production in 2006 falling to an estimated 71,500 tonnes cwe. This represents a drop of almost five per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. Within this, export meat plants accounted for around 90 per cent of the total with some 7,000 tonnes produced at local abattoirs. Imports of sheepmeat to Ireland showed little change during 2006 and for the year are estimated to have reached 3,000 tonnes. Within this figure, two thirds comes from the UK with 20 per cent from New Zealand. The majority of imports are made up of frozen mutton destined for the processing sector to manufacture burgers or ready meals for home or export markets. When added to Irish production it results in overall sheepmeat availability in 2006 of some 74,500 tonnes cwe. Sheepmeat consumption performed well throughout 2006 with the domestic market helping to support the trade throughout the year and continues to represent almost 30 per cent of total output. Its importance will increase further as overall production declines. For the year, sheepmeat consumption is estimated at 20,500 tonnes, representing a rise of almost three per cent. This leaves consumption at 4.8kg per capita. Allowing for the strong consumption performance on the domestic market combined with lower supplies, Irish sheepmeat exports in 2006 are estimated to have declined by seven per cent to 54,000 tonnes.
Distribution of Irish Sheepmeat Production 2006(e) – Tonnes cwe Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
64,700t
6,800t
Total Production 71,500t
Sheepmeat Imports 3,000t
Total Sheepmeat Availability 74,500t
Exports
Consumption
54,000t
20,500t
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Sheepmeat
22
Sheepmeat Exports valued at €180m The value of Irish sheepmeat exports in 2006 is estimated to have fallen by five per cent to around €180 million. This drop in value reflects a seven per cent decline in export volumes, which was only partially offset by a modest rise in market returns.
France accounts for 58% of exports Exports to France are estimated to have reached 31,500 tonnes during 2006, a drop of seven per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. The French market was characterised by a sluggish market demand and reasonably strong supply levels from the UK in particular but also a more consistent presence from other exporters such as Spain, New Zealand, Australia and to a lesser extent Bulgaria. These factors made the trade competitive throughout the year. Nonetheless, France remained the principal market for Irish lamb, accounting for 58 per cent of the total.
Shipments to UK reflect lower ewe supplies The drop in cull ewe supplies in 2006 impacted on export volumes to the UK with shipments for the year estimated at 12,500 tonnes, down by over 10 per cent on year earlier levels. There continues to be a strong ethnic demand for Irish mutton in the UK while some rise in lamb exports was also reported, albeit from a small base.
Exports to Northern Europe rise by over 20% Further growth was recorded in exports to Northern Europe with shipments reaching 3,700 tonnes. Sweden accounts for two thirds of exports while volumes to Denmark and Holland also increased.
Slower hill lamb trade The volume of Irish hill lamb exported to the Mediterranean eased back in 2006 to around 2,000 tonnes. This reflects increased domestic supplies in key markets such as Spain and Portugal. Also, the quality of lambs coming off the hills in Ireland improved making them more suitable for other markets with an increasing number kept as stores over the winter months.
Irish Sheepmeat Exports 2006 vs. 2005 (tonnes cwe) 35,000
2005
30,000
2006(e)
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 France
Sectoral Review & Outlook
UK
Ger.
Med.
Scan.
Others
Sheepmeat
23
Sheepmeat Cutting Trade figures available from the CSO show that during the first eight months of 2006 there was 10,600 tonnes of sheepmeat exports in cut /deboned form. This represents 29 per cent of total exports during the period. This compares to 13 per cent as recently as 2000. While a high proportion is mutton, there are increasing volumes of lamb also being exported. This trend is assisted by the move of the larger Irish supermarket chains towards centrally packed lamb sales. The export of cuts is thus facilitated by major processors increasingly supplying lamb cuts for supermarket promotions.
Proportion of Irish Sheepmeat Exports in cut form, 2000 to 2006 (%) 30 25
28
2004
2005
29
23
20 18
15 10
27
13
12
5 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2006(e)
Lamb Prices Irish lamb prices increased by around two per cent during 2006 to average €3.45/kg dw excl. VAT. The sluggish nature of the French market for much of the year combined with ongoing low returns for lamb skins and edible offal reduced the potential for any further price increase. Prices started the year slowly reflecting a slow demand in France combined with higher than expected UK supplies. As a result, prices remained below corresponding 2005 levels until April. Thereafter, prices remained at least similar to year earlier levels with the strongest prices evident during the April/May period.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Sheepmeat
24
Irish Lamb Prices, 2006 vs 2005 (€/kg dw excl. VAT) 5.00 4.50 2006
4.00 3.50
2005
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Outlook for 2007 Irish sheep availability is expected to decline by up to eight per cent in 2007 reflecting strong ewe lamb disposals since the introduction of decoupled payments. This will impact on lamb supplies over the coming years. Cull ewe supplies are also expected to moderate further in 2007. Exports are expected to decline in line with supplies. The European sheepmeat market looks set to remain steady with production levels likely to fall at a slightly faster rate than consumption in key markets. France will continue to remain the key market with their import requirements likely to be maintained in 2007. Sales to Northern European markets look set to continue strongly helped by a further rise in the proportion of exports in cut form. New Zealand filled their EU import quota for the first time in three years in 2006. After slowing in recent years, the volume of chilled New Zealand sheepmeat exports to the EU increased by almost 30 per cent during the year. Volumes are expected to remain strong in 2007. The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU will boost sheepmeat availability although both these markets were already actively trading with the EU, particularly in live lambs.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Sheepmeat
25
Market Performance
Ireland Irish Meat Consumption, 2004 – 2006 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 2004
2005
2006(e)
86
86
86
149
150
150
20
20
20.5
Beef Pigmeat Sheepmeat Source: Bord Bia Estimates
Beef Market Demand Steady Little change was evident in Irish beef consumption in 2006 with sales holding firm at both retail and foodservice level. Overall, for the year consumption is estimated to have stood at 86,000 tonnes, broadly in line with 2005 levels. Retail sales continue to account for almost 75 per cent of the total at around 65,000 tonnes cwe. On a per capita basis, beef stands at just over 20kg with a slight levelling off evident over recent years.
Irish Beef Consumption, 2000 - 2006 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 90 86 86
86
2004
2005
86
84
82 78 78 76
74
77
70 66 2000
2001
2002
2003
2006(e)
The ongoing developments evident in the retail meat market in Ireland in terms of centrally packed meat have led to export approved plants accounting for a higher proportion of domestic
Market Performance
26
consumption. During 2006, it is estimated that export plants supplied 63 per cent of domestic consumption. This compares to 52 per cent as recently as 2000. Local abattoirs account for less than a quarter while imports represent around 12 per cent of the total. Consumer demand for beef looks set to remain firm in 2007. In terms of Bord Bia activities, a promotional campaign to reinforce the introduction of the beef labelling legislation and encourage consumers to support Feile Bia establishments already displaying country of origin took place in July. This involved a two week national radio campaign. As part of Bord Bia’s presence at the National & World Ploughing Championships, which included a steak bar and details on Feile Bia and its participants, a week long national promotional campaign was rolled out. In addition, a Pre-Christmas campaign involving a two week national promotion took place from 6th - 20th November. The objective was to encourage customers to choose approved Feile Bia establishments when booking Christmas events. These campaigns were supported by: -
National press advertising
-
Outdoor campaign
-
National and local radio advertising
-
Information leaflets at the Ploughing Championships
Consumer research carried out by Bord Bia in 2006 shows an increasing consumer recognition of the Feile Bia sign, with 49% of respondents claiming to recall it, which compares to 25% in 2003. Also 57% of respondents said they would be much more likely to use a Feile Bia establishment compared to other outlets. These positive results show that Irish consumer are building a stronger awareness and understanding of the Feile Bia scheme.
Feile Bia campaign to encourage customers to choose approved Feile Bia establishments when booking Christmas events
Market Performance
27
Lamb Positive Trends Continue on Irish Market The Irish market accounts for thirty per cent of sheepmeat output, making it the second most significant market, after France. Demand for lamb on the Irish market performed well throughout 2006, with a rise of over three per cent estimated for the year at 20,500 tonnes. This reflects a strong trade at both retail and foodservice level, where new recipe ideas are increasingly evident on menus. This trend looks set to continue in 2007, although competition from other meats, particularly poultry is likely to be stronger. Nonetheless, the Irish market will continue to represent a key market for the Irish sheepmeat sector. The principal aim of Bord Bia lamb activities on the home market during 2006 was to position lamb as a high quality and versatile meal option through a combination of TV & radio advertising, in-store activities and press campaigns. Some of the principal programmes that took place included: New Season Lamb - To highlight the arrival of new season lamb, a national radio campaign and PR activities were initiated to coincide with the May bank holiday weekend. National Lamb Campaign – Towards the end of May, a four week TV campaign aimed at increasing consumer awareness of the eating quality and versatility of lamb for everyday mealtimes took place. This was supported by two weeks of radio advertising and outdoor advertising later in the year. A new recipe leaflet illustrating the versatility of the different lamb cuts for everyday meals was developed for distribution in supermarkets and butchers nationwide. Bord Bia's Regional Food Advisors also undertook a series of nationwide cookery demonstrations involving these new lamb recipe ideas at food shows, butchers' evenings and for parents of school going children.
Recipe leaflet campaign highlighting the versatility of different lamb cuts.
Market Performance
28
Pigmeat Pigmeat sales maintained Irish pigmeat consumption performed well during 2006 with consumption remaining at 150,000 tonnes cwe. This leaves the Irish market still accounting for almost 50 per cent of total Irish output, making it by far the most important market for Irish pork. Import penetration is estimated to have eased during the year with a 10 per cent drop recorded in pigmeat import volumes. The principal growth areas within the market are processed products and bacon, as convenience is the significant driver of demand. The outlook for 2007 remains broadly positive with convenience demand continuing to drive the market with fresh meat sales showing less change. The aim of Bord Bia’s pork and bacon activities throughout 2006 was to build consumer awareness and understanding of the Quality Mark on pork and bacon products and increase consumers’ knowledge of ways of cooking these products as part of everyday meals. The main initiative undertaken during the year was a three week national campaign from mid November promoting pork and bacon with the quality mark. The campaign encompassed national TV advertising, outdoor posters, in-store activities, recipe leaflets and a PR programme.
National campaign promoting pork and bacon with the quality mark.
Market Performance
29
United Kingdom Summary - Irish Meat Exports to United Kingdom, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
260
250
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
14
12.5
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
54
51
Beef (‘000t cwe)
Beef The UK beef industry experienced significant changes in 2006, with both the supply and trading environment changing considerably. The return of UK over thirty month beef to the food chain led to a gradual build up of cow supplies as the year progressed, reaching 12,000 head per week in the latter stages of 2006. This seasonal supply effect increased the availability of manufacturing beef significantly, and while there was solid demand for such product, there was a definite damping effect on both prices for cows and manufacturing beef during the last quarter. The other major change to the industry was the resumption of exports of British beef following the ending of the export ban in May. While initial expectations were quite positive, the reality was that volumes built slowly during 2006. By the end of the year steady, albeit small, supplies of British beef were being shipped to markets such as France, Northern Europe and Greece. The overall UK domestic market was affected by both changes. UK beef production is estimated to have increased by over 100,000 tonnes in 2006. However, the impact of cow beef on Irish imports was minimised by the decline in the availability of chilled steak cuts from South America, which were very evident in 2005. Increased interest and returns from the foodservice sector in particular were experienced, as the sector was most affected by the restricted trade. While chilled steak cuts declined from both Brazil and Argentina, larger volumes of frozen product entered the market for further processing. Market Position of Irish Beef An estimated 250,000 tonnes of Irish beef was imported into the UK in 2006, just 10,000 tonnes below 2005 levels. This trade is estimated to have been valued at more than €750 million. This was higher than originally anticipated as the slower uptake of over thirty month beef by the retail sector, coupled with slow build up of cow supplies and restricted South American availability meant that the demand for Irish beef held firm for much of the year. However, trade slowed towards the end of the year reflecting increased UK supplies.
Market Performance
30
The continued development of consumer awareness of Irish Beef was to the fore of all activities undertaken by Bord Bia in 2006. Working closely with the key multiple retailers including Asda, Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Somerfield, Co-op, Iceland, Aldi and Lidl, Bord Bia used a range of promotional activities to boost demand for Irish beef.
Irish Beef Recipe Calendar giveaway as part of autumn beef promotion in UK
Outlook for 2007 Looking forward to 2007, the marketing environment for Irish beef in the UK appears to be positive. UK domestic prime supplies are forecast to decline by 110,000 head (-5%), and while there may be some more cow beef incorporated into UK retail offers, it is unlikely to be very large. Therefore further prime beef supplies will be required. The other major factor, which is less sure, is the return to normal trading patterns for South American product. Any resumption of normal Brazilian product availability could potentially undermine the all important steak trade, which would impact on market returns for Irish beef. Continued emphasis from Bord Bia will be on promoting the quality standards which Irish Beef conforms to and its ability to meet the requirements of the key retail and wholesale operators.
Pigmeat The UK pigmeat market experienced a mixed year in 2006. Demand in the early part of the year was sluggish. However, strong continental demand as result of avian influenza, tightened supplies and led to improved prices as the spring progressed. This good trade continued over the summer period before easing seasonally throughout the autumn. Reflecting the interest from the continent and international markets, Irish exports to the UK are estimated to have eased by five per cent to 51,000 tonnes. While the market itself remained largely competitive, and further interest from the Spanish and French was seen in the latter stages of the year, overall returns were largely maintained. The trade was estimated to have been worth around over €120 million during the year.
Market Performance
31
Outlook for 2007 The market prospects for Irish pigmeat during 2007 appear reasonably positive. Overall consumption of pork in the UK has grown by three per cent in volume over the last year and retained a 73 per cent household penetration level. While bacon on the other hand has declined by around two per cent in volume sales, it has retained a 92 per cent penetration of UK households. While the UK are forecasting a rise in domestic production, declines in Denmark, Spain and France are forecast for the initial stages of 2007 at least, which should limit supplies on the market.
Sheepmeat The UK market for lamb and mutton was well supplied in 2006. Stronger than anticipated lamb supplies impacted on lamb prices. Cull ewe supplies remained strong for much of the year before falling off in the last quarter. Irish exports to the market in 2006 are estimated to have eased back, reflecting lower availability, to around 12,500 tonnes. The primary product shipped from Ireland to the UK remains mutton destined for the ethnic market. The Muslim population in the UK now accounts for around 3 per cent of the population and is estimated to consume 80-85 per cent of mutton on the market.
Outlook for 2007 Overall, UK lamb and ewe supplies are expected to tighten significantly in 2007, following the contraction of the breeding flock over recent years. Lamb supplies are forecast to fall by five per cent with cull ewe disposals dropping by as much as 20 per cent. This should offer increased demand from the growing ethnic market. Also the development of the Mutton Renaissance Club which was launched in 2006 to develop the understanding and use of mutton in foodservice is expected to highlight the meat further.
France Summary - Irish Meat Exports to France, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe) Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe) Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
Market Performance
2005
2006(e)
44
52
33.7
31.5
3
6
32
Beef Lower French beef production boosted beef imports on the market during 2006. For the year as a whole, French beef imports are estimated to have increased by almost five per cent or 18,000 tonnes. Most of the growth in imports was evident in boneless imports from Ireland, Germany and Holland. For the year, Irish beef exports to France are estimated to have increased by almost 20 per cent to 52,000 tonnes. This trade was valued at €140 million. Ireland was the only country to experience double-digit growth in shipments to the market and remains France’s 4th largest beef supplier, marginally behind Spain. Market Position of Irish Beef The volumes of Irish beef being sold direct to French retailers grew further in 2006 with an estimated 4,000 tonnes sold directly while another 20,000 tonnes is estimated to be sold indirectly. The foodservice sector remains important with up 40 per cent of total shipments destined for this market segment. Around 15 per cent of shipments are destined for further manufacturing.
Key Bord Bia Activities during 2006 Some of the principal Bord Bia activities in relation to beef on the French market throughout 2006 included: Chefs’ Irish Beef Club - A workshop to introduce Irish Hereford Beef to some of Paris’ most prestigious chefs was hosted in January. In November five new members were welcomed to the club. The Club now boasts its first 3 star Michelin chef. In December, a second workshop event took place with a theme of Christmas dishes to recruit new member chefs in 2007. Autumn Beef Campaign - For the second consecutive year, an Autumn Beef Campaign was conducted from the middle of October until the end of December in over 300 retail outlets with 3 retail groups. The consumer promotion featured an on-pack offer combined with in-store merchandising. In addition, an in-store tasting programme ran in a selection of stores in the east and south-east of France to encourage consumers to taste and buy Irish steer beef. SIAL - SIAL took place from the 22nd to 26th October in Paris with nine Irish companies exhibiting on the meat pavilion. Bord Bia hosted a stand reception on the first two evenings which was attended by key representatives from the French retail, foodservice and meat wholesale sectors. St Patrick’s Day - To celebrate St Patrick’s Day 2006, a branded range of darfresh Irish steer beef products was on offer in all outlets of a French retail chain for two weeks. During this period, an in-store tasting programme was put in place in a selection of stores with a consumer competition to win a trip to Ireland or one of 5,000 Irish beef aprons. Foodservice - Bord Bia supported the launch of a new range of Irish beef to the restaurant sector in the spring with two of France’s leading food service distributors whom together have an
Market Performance
33
overall client base of 110,000. The launch was supported by a marketing campaign targeting their 1,200 telesales personnel and included catalogues highlighting the quality of Irish beef.
St. Patrick’s Day Irish Meat Retail Promotion
Outlook for 2007 The prospects for Irish beef on the French market remain broadly positive for 2007. While French beef production looks set to rise somewhat, lower supplies available from other import suppliers should provide further opportunities for Irish exporters. However, lower Irish beef exports may result in any growth to the market being modest. French cattle prices look set to remain firm with a further slight rise anticipated. Irish beef remains competitive relative to french beef but over the last year has been less competitive against other imported suppliers. If this trend continues it could impact to some extent on the level of exports in 2007.
Lamb The French lamb market remained competitive throughout 2006 with a sluggish consumer demand impacting on Irish exports despite lower French supplies. Sheepmeat imports for the year are estimated to have declined by around three per cent to less than 140,000 tonnes. Reduced shipments from the UK, Ireland and South America were offset by increased supplies of fresh product particularly from Spain with New Zealand chilled lamb up slightly in contrast to frozen, which showed a sharp decline.
Market Performance
34
The market environment combined with lower Irish supplies led to the volume of Irish exports to France falling by six per cent to an estimated 31,500 tonnes in 2006. These exports were valued at around €112m and leaves France accounting for almost 58 per cent of total exports.
Market Position of Irish Lamb Ireland maintained its position as the second largest supplier to the French market in 2006, ahead of New Zealand. It is estimated that 70 per cent of Irish lamb sold to France is destined for the retail trade with the remaining 30 per cent sold through the wholesale sector.
Key Bord Bia Activities during 2006 The focus of Bord Bia activities was the Sumer lamb campaign, which was launched in midJune and continued until the end of September. The consumer promotion featured an on-pack offer for a reusable ‘eco-shopping bag’ combined with in-store merchandising. In all over 1500 retail outlets participated with some 52,000 shoppers receiving the bag decorated with the Agneau d’Irlande logo. In addition, an in-store tasting programme in a selection of stores in the South East ran during August to early September. Press launches in Paris, Lille and Nice were held to maximise coverage for Irish lamb in both the trade and consumer media. Advertising in the trade media throughout June, July and August gave an extra impetus to the campaign’s success. To measure the impact of the campaign an in-store survey was carried out which recorded the lamb purchases of a total of 3000 shoppers. The survey showed that Irish lamb sales doubled during the promotion.
Launch of Irish lamb promotion in France, which ran from June to September
Market Performance
35
Outlook for 2007 The French market is expected to remain reasonably competitive throughout 2007 with the ongoing presence of the UK and the relative competitiveness of New Zealand lamb likely to impact on the market environment faced by Irish exporters throughout the year. The relative price of lamb is also likely to impact on consumer demand although if a further rise is recorded in beef prices, this may help to offset this factor to some extent. Taking all these factors into account, French sheepmeat consumption is expected to stabilise at best, while lower Irish supplies will reduce export volumes.
The Netherlands Summary - Irish Exports to the Netherlands, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
40
45
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
44
52
Beef Irish beef exports to the Netherlands are estimated to have increased by thirteen per cent during 2006 to reach 45,000 tonnes cwe. These exports are valued at approximately €155 million. The rise in exports represents a growing interest in Irish beef among Dutch retail and foodservice buyers. This comes at a time when UK exports, and in particular Scottish beef, returned to the market after a 10 year absence. A strong demand in the first half of the year helped to maintain a steady export market. Summer 2006 registered some exceptional high temperatures. Whilst initially, bolstering sales of beef cuts for the BBQ sector, the prolonged heat wave created a fatigue factor, resulting in fall off in meat consumption. Demand steadily recovered during the autumn months with the aid of retail promotions. Dutch consumer demand for beef remains steady at around 17.8kg per capita. Dutch consumers are quite discerning with regards to their purchase of meat, ranking quality and price as key influencing factors.
Livestock A shortage of dairy calves on the continent combined with an exceptionally strong veal market in the early part of 2006 created a strong demand on Irish live exports to the Netherlands. As a result, export levels increased by around 20 per cent to 52,000 head. Trade slowed as the year progressed reflecting a slower overall market demand and a gradual rise in the level of UK calf exports.
Market Performance
36
Key Bord Bia Activities during 2006 It is estimated that 80% of Irish beef exports are destined for the retail channel with the balance being absorbed in the foodservice and manufacturing sectors. Bord Bia activities in the Netherlands in 2006 focused on developing the image and overall awareness of Irish Beef through PR and promotional events. Some of the principal activities undertaken included: Launch of www.irishbef.nl - The launch of a dedicated website for Irish beef created a new and added dimension to Bord Bia’s promotions in the Dutch market. With a key objective of driving overall awareness of Irish Beef and providing consumers with a ‘one-stop-shop’ of information, the website integrates all elements of our promotional resources and activities. Autumn Beef Promotion Campaign – This campaign continues to be the main driving vehicle behind consumer promotions. The campaign in 2006 commenced in early October and concluded in late December. With the combined market share of 45% of the Dutch retail market, a total of 6 retail chains participated in this year’s campaign. Over one million promotional labels were used on packs of Irish beef in over 1200 participating stores nationwide. Attracting a total of 170,000 entries for an Irish Beef giveaway, the Autumn Beef promotion continues to strike an interest amongst the Dutch consumer. This year, consumers had the chance to win a free Dutch Recipe Calendar or a Magnetic Memory board. Both items provide Irish beef with year round visibility in Dutch homes. On pack country of Origin - An emerging and noticeable trend towards to the promotion of the country of origin of Irish beef became evident on the shelves of Dutch retailers during 2006. Albert Heijn’s Greenfield’s brand which is exclusively Irish product, piloted the launch of new Greenfield’s packaging which carries the Irish beef logo. Other retail chains followed a similar route in promoting the Irish identify. Chef’s Irish Beef Club - Building product reputation and improving the positioning of Irish beef remains a key driving force behind the Chef’s Irish Beef Club in the Netherlands. With a total of thirteen member chefs; representing some of the most elite Michelin star holders in the Netherlands, the club continues to grow from strength to strength.
Chef’s Irish Beef Club promotion in the Netherlands
Market Performance
37
Outlook for 2007 Export volumes of Irish beef are expected to show little change in 2007. A growing interest from Dutch retailers in promoting the Irish country of origin is encouraging and augers well for the positioning of Irish Beef as a premium branded product. Nonetheless, a number of underlying factors such as; retail price competition, increasing presence of UK beef and a possible return of full South American supplies to the EU market will influence market dynamics. The live trade is expected to be more competitive as UK calf exports are anticipated to grow strongly while overall import demand eases to more historical levels.
Italy Summary - Irish Exports to Italy, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
42
51
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
47
67
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
3
3
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
1
1
Beef Irish beef exports to Italy are estimated to have increased by over 20 per cent during 2006 to reach 51,000 tonnes cwe. This trade is valued at €220m. The Italian beef and veal market was particularly buoyant during the first eight months of 2006 due largely to the outbreak of avian flu in Italy which caused a noticeable shift in demand away from poultry towards other meats. During the latter months of the year the market weakened somewhat as heavier supplies of competitively priced beef tended to push down prices. Export volumes from Ireland were back a little during that period but overall held up well for the year as a whole. Italian beef consumption showed a modest rise during the year. Total beef imports were up by an estimated four per cent with France, Germany and Poland remaining the other key suppliers. Imports from Brazil were up marginally albeit from a relatively low base. Supplies from the UK returned onto the market following the removal of export restrictions earlier in the year.
Market Performance
38
Market Position of Irish Beef Irish beef is now well established in Italy at the premium retail end of the market. It is estimated that around 80 per cent of beef sales go to retail while the balance largely goes into the catering sector. Irish beef has a good reputation in the marketplace and is recognised as a quality product that has adapted well to Italian consumer tastes. The continuing growth in sales has tended to take place with the larger retail chains, who are growing their share of the market at the expense of the traditional butcher sector. Irish suppliers tend to have good business relationships with key customers which will help to secure Ireland’s market position over the coming years. Bord Bia’s promotional activities in Italy during 2006 focused mainly on increasing awareness of Irish beef through PR and promotional campaigns. Promotions were carried out during the year with eight of the top retail chains. These promotions involved consumer advertising, in store point of sale materials, and merchandising of the product where appropriate.
Retail promotion of Irish beef in Italy
Outlook for 2007 Italy is a major beef consuming country with annual per capita consumption of over 24kg. Despite difficult economic conditions consumption has remained stable in recent years and no immediate decline in consumption is foreseen. This, combined with lower domestic production suggests a relatively buoyant market in 2007. However the boost given to the trade in early 2006 arising from the avian flu outbreak is unlikely to be repeated in 2007. Accordingly the
Market Performance
39
market in the first half of 2007 is likely to revert to more normal patterns. Beef sales from Ireland are expected to rise although at a lower rate than in 2006.
Live Cattle Irish live cattle exports to Italy increased by over 40 per cent or 20,000 during 2006 to reach 67,000 head. The value of livestock exports is estimated to have exceeded €45m. Most of the growth in exports took place in top quality autumn 2005 born weanlings. The live cattle trade also benefited from the buoyant beef trade during the earlier part of the year. However the trade weakened in the latter part of the year as heavier supplies of competitively priced beef and livestock came onto the market. Overall for the year, total Italian live imports are estimated at 1.4 m head, up marginally on the previous year. The main supplier on the Italian market is France with estimated live exports to Italy in 2006 of 1.1m head. As the genetic quality of the herd improves, Irish stores and weanlings are becoming increasingly suitable for the Italian feedlots. In addition Irish livestock exporters have forged strong business partnerships with key Italian importers which should secure the market position for live cattle exports over the coming years. Overall, the outlook for 2007 remains positive with further growth in exports anticipated.
Sheepmeat Irish exports of sheepmeat are estimated to have reached 1,000 tonnes in 2006, roughly similar to the previous year’s levels. The Italian sheepmeat market is small by European standards with annual per capita consumption of only 1.5 kg. In 2006, overall sheepmeat consumption is estimated to have reached 89,000 tonnes of which 30,000 tonnes was supplied by imports. The main suppliers remained New Zealand, Spain, France, the UK and Holland. The market is dominated by light lambs with an average carcase weight of around 9 Kg. Irish sheepmeat exports to Italy consist mainly of mountain type lambs and increasingly lamb cuts for the retail sector. Lamb sales are determined by the availability of suitable product at a competitive price. Nevertheless, it remains an important market for lighter mountain type lambs. Italian production and consumption is expected to show little change in 2007 and imports are likely to hold at their previous levels. Competition is the key issue in supplying the Italian market. Higher costs in Ireland and its position on the periphery of Europe make it difficult for Irish suppliers to compete with domestic suppliers and others located nearer the marketplace. The market itself is extremely fragmented making distribution challenging. However, Ireland should be able to maintain its current market position.
Market Performance
40
Pigmeat Irish pigmeat exports to Italy are forecast to have reached 3,000 tonnes in 2006 down marginally on the previous year. These are valued at €6m. Ireland’s share of the import market is currently around three per cent. Irish sales are principally for processing, particularly frozen trimmings and shoulders. In 2006, the pigmeat trade benefited from the shift in demand away from poultry towards pigmeat and other red meats. This trend is unlikely to be evident in 2007. Irish volumes onto the market are likely to remain around their current levels and will depend greatly on the available supplies from other sources.
Sweden Summary - Irish Meat Exports to Sweden, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
24
31
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2.0
2.5
The Swedish market for Irish beef improved during 2006 reflecting a rising import requirement on the market and somewhat lower imports from South America during the year. Swedish selfsufficiency remained at less than 60 per cent in 2006 resulting in an import requirement of around 110,000 tonnes. The market continues to rate domestic beef higher than imported product, which can impact on the market position of Irish product. For the year as a whole, export volumes are estimated to have increased by almost 30 per cent to 31,000 tonnes cwe, with a value of €75 million.
Market Position of Irish Beef Over recent years there has been a steady increase in the proportion of exports that consist of higher value steer beef entering the market. On the other hand, the proportion of manufacturing cuts has declined, which highlights the progress being made by Irish beef on the market in terms of building a solid market reputation. This position is demonstrated by the fact that Irish beef now represents 30 per cent of total Swedish imports.
Outlook for 2006 The market prospects for Irish beef in Sweden remain positive for 2007. Domestic beef supplies look like showing little change during the year leading to a stable import requirement. Irish beef is well positioned to maintain its share of overall beef imports. However, the level of restrictions
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41
surrounding Brazilian and Argentinian beef is likely to impact on the market environment faced by Irish exporters.
Spain Summary - Irish Exports to Spain, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
14
16
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
50
72
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
0.8
0.2
Beef Irish beef exports to Spain continue to show year on year increases with a further estimated rise of 14 per cent recorded in 2006 to 16,000 tonnes cwe. This trade was worth an estimated €40 million. The higher exports came through increased sales to our four main retail clients, where Ireland is well positioned as a reliable and consistent quality beef supplier. The increased sales through the retail sector were mainly due to the growth in their number of outlets. Irish Beef fills a niche for red meat and primary cuts. Approximately 70 per cent of Irish beef sold to Spain consists of steak cuts, mainly fillets and loins for both the retail and foodservice sectors. While Spanish cattle prices increased strongly during 2006, a good consumer demand for beef was maintained on the market. Bord Bia continues to work closely with Ireland’s main retail customers to position Irish beef as a premium product by encouraging them to identify and promote the product as Irish, and creating a segment that can optimise market returns. New and more exciting ways of promotion at point of sale are being considered and offered to Spanish retail chains in order to achieve this. Consumer focus groups were carried out in 2006 to research consumers’ views on Irish meat and listen to their demands and preferences in terms of beef attributes, qualities, presentation, packaging and promotion.
Livestock Irish live cattle exports to Spain performed strongly again in 2006 with an increase of over 40 per cent or 22,000 recorded to 72,000 head.
Market Performance
42
The improved trade was due to greater availability of Irish cattle, the consolidation of business relationships between Irish exporters and reliable Spanish importers and the widely recognised improvement of the quality and genetics of the Irish livestock. Spanish cattle prices were strong during the year and Ireland has positioned itself as a good alternative to French cattle that tend to be too expensive. The bluetongue outbreaks in several EU countries does not seem to have had a huge impact on the livestock trade to Spain in 2006, but could potentially impact on trade during 2007. The trend towards cheaper, younger and lesser quality cattle, mainly calves from Germany, Holland, Poland, and the Czech Republic continues to present a significant market challenge to the Irish industry. There is also the potential for increased suppliers of UK cattle on the market, although to date this has been slow to materialise. Despite these developments, the outlook for Irish cattle exports to Spain in 2007 remains broadly positive.
Bord Bia market visit to Spanish feedlot
Lamb Irish exports of light lamb to Spain in 2006 fell following a strong pick up in 2005. During 2005, Spanish lamb prices reached record levels due to scarce domestic supplies and bluetongue related movement restrictions. This created increased opportunities for Irish lamb. However, the market returned to more normal patterns in 2006 with increased domestic supplies impacting on import levels. As a result, Irish exports fell to less than 400 tonnes for the year. Looking ahead to 2007, a drop of four per cent in the Spanish breeding flock is expected to impact on domestic production levels. As a result, import demand is likely to rise, which may present some renewed opportunities for Irish lamb.
Market Performance
43
Denmark Summary - Irish Meat Exports to Denmark, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe)
2005
2006(e)
8
8
Similar to developments taking place in Sweden, Danish beef production continues to decline gradually. With consumer demand for beef remaining strong, it has led to a rising import requirement, which in 2006 stood at 100,000 tonnes. Trade remained competitive throughout 2006 with South American supplies holding well, particularly during the second half of the year. The Danish retail market remains very price focussed, with a strong discounter presence in the market leading the demand for cheap product. This makes it difficult for Irish beef to build a premium presence in the market. This segment of the market is currently sourced from South America but also notably from Australia, with Australian beef enjoying a positive reputation. Irish exports continued to struggle on price, which impacted on supplies. For the year as a whole, Irish shipments reached an estimated 8,000 tonnes, which is broadly similar to 2005 levels. Little change is expected on the market in 2007 with domestic production stabilising and leading to stability in Danish beef imports. Irish exports are unlikely to change significantly, although lower overall beef exports may reduce shipments to some extent. Bord Bia will continue to seek out opportunities to develop trade for prime Irish Beef to the Danish market in the year ahead.
Portugal Summary - Irish Exports to Portugal, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe) Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2005
2006(e)
9
11
1.0
1.1
Beef Irish beef exports to Portugal performed extremely well in 2006, showing an increase of around 20 per cent 11,000 tonnes cwe. The bulk of these exports were destined for four of the top five retailers.
Market Performance
44
Irish beef has a very good reputation with Portuguese consumers although the market tends to be quite price competitive. The principal demand on the market is for lean meat, predominantly from young bulls. Irish exports to Portugal comprise of both prime and cow beef with around 90 per cent sold to retail, and mainly consist of forequarter cuts that compete on price with Germany and Holland.
Lamb Irish lamb exports levels to Portugal were largely maintained in 2006 following a drop in 2005. The loss in trade in 2005 was largely a reflection of a lack of suitable lamb in Ireland to serve both Portugal and Spain during the Christmas campaign. The market was price competitive during 2006 with UK lamb on the market selling at prices lower than Ireland for much of the time. Irish product is well received in Portugal’s top multiple retail chains and in the traditional butcher shops, through the larger wholesalers. However, when a price differential emerges they often switch to Welsh & Scottish product. Bord Bia has been very committed to maintaining existing customers for Irish lamb while also seeking ways to develop new outlets. This has involved looking at new ways of marketing the product, securing a more constant demand, obtaining constructive feedback of the market needs and bringing relevant companies and buyers to Ireland to see at first hand the quality of light lamb being produced in Ireland. Bord Bia continues to work with the Irish industry to ensure that Irish production systems are conducive to supplying the type of product required by the Portuguese market and developing value added products.
Belgium Summary - Irish Exports to Belgium, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe) Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2005
2006(e)
5
5
1.5
1.5
Irish beef exports to Belgium were largely maintained during 2006 at an estimated 5,000 tonnes. Exports were valued at around €17m. Trade was helped by lower supplies evident on the market from other suppliers throughout the year, although the market became more competitive as the year progressed. The majority of Irish beef is sold through the wholesale sector with steady volumes going through the multiple retail sector. Irish exports of lamb to Belgium performed well with shipments standing at 1,500 tonnes.
Market Performance
45
Activities in Belgium in 2005 concentrated on consolidating existing retail and foodservice business, while also supporting new business development. For the month of September, Irish lamb was identified on pack in Carrefour retail outlets throughout Belgium. The promotion was supported by an in-store tasting programme in a selection of stores.
Germany Summary - Irish Exports to Germany, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
2.0
4.5
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
16
14
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2.1
1.8
Beef Irish beef exports to Germany performed well in 2006, more than doubling to 4,500 tonnes. The majority of this was destined for catering wholesalers and retailers. Irish shipments were helped by stable beef consumption and lower imports from South American suppliers, especially Argentina during the year. This helped overcome the challenge presented by a rise of three per cent in German production. Irish beef promotions took place during November and December at 20 Kaufhof stores nationwide, including tastings supported by recipe cards, information flyers and a ‘Free shopper bag with Purchase’ offer. An Irish Beef event was held in Bliss restaurant, Essen in April 2006 to promote Irish beef among several prominent German chefs who were in attendance. Karstadt held a 3 day in-store tasting from 6-8th April. Bord Bia sponsored Irish fillet beef served at Karstadt Nuremburg’s Gourmet Evening which took place on the 21st October 2006.
Outlook for 2007 Rising cattle prices have led to higher retail beef prices as 2006 progressed. If this trend continues throughout 2007 it may negatively impact on German beef consumption, particularly as poultry regains market share. However, lower domestic beef production should boost overall beef imports and with Argentinian exports not expected to increase strongly, there should be further opportunities for Irish beef on the market.
Market Performance
46
Pigmeat Germany remains the most competitive market in the EU for the slaughtering and processing of pigs although not all imports are for consumption in the German market with per capita consumption remaining stagnant at 54.5 kg per annum and rising only marginally as a result of the dry summer and the World Cup. German export volumes increased by 10 per cent in 2006 to 1.25m tonnes. Germany is presently the principal Continental EU market for Irish pigmeat with shipments estimated at 14,000 tonnes cwe in 2006.
Outlook for 2007 There are plans within the German pigmeat sector to increase the domestic pig herd and slaughtering capacity over the next 2 to 5 years. Expansion would mean Germany could process around 10 million more pigs in the medium term. Little change is expected in per capita consumption during 2007. As a result, the German industry is examining opportunities in Eastern Europe particularly the new accession states of Romania and Bulgaria. In terms of Irish exports, little change is anticipated for 2007.
Lamb German sheepmeat production fell in 2006 leading to increasing supplies from New Zealand, Australia and South American exporters. The decline in production coupled with an increase in overall consumption of an estimated eight per cent has caused the self sufficiency rate to drop to 53 per cent. However, per capita consumption remains low relative to other European countries at 1.1kg. Overall, sheepmeat imports are estimated to have increased to 53,000 tonnes in 2006. There is a strong market for mutton through ethnic food service channels. Demand for lamb in Germany is seasonal with consumption peaking at Easter and Christmas. Despite lower domestic production, the German market remained competitive for Irish exporters in 2006 due largely to a stronger presence of New Zealand chilled lamb on the market. For the year, Irish exports are estimated to have fallen by 14 per cent to 1,800 tonnes.
Outlook for 2007 Growing demand for ethnic cuisine in Germany would suggest that there are opportunities to increase mutton sales to the German foodservice sector. Sales of Irish lamb also continue to increase at premium foodservice level.
Market Performance
47
International Markets Irish Exports to International Markets, 2005 - 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
37
38
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
26
26
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
10
0.5
Exports of Irish beef to International markets are estimated to have reached 38,000 tonnes during 2006, valued at just under €100 million. This represents a rise of three per cent on 2005 levels. This increased trade took place against a backdrop of lower export refunds and an increasingly competitive global beef market. Higher exports to Russia helped offset lower exports to other markets. Live cattle exports were not possible reflecting the absence of export refunds since December 2005. In terms of pigmeat, exports to International markets were largely maintained at 26,000 tonnes. Japan continued to be the key market followed by Russia. Exports to Hong Kong were maintained while shipments to the United States slowed.
Russia Russia remained the principal non-EU market for Irish beef during 2006 with exports reaching 30,000 tonnes. This represented a rise of 11 per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. Pigmeat exports to Russia were increased by a factor of four during 2006 to an estimated 8,000 tonnes cwe. The boost in trade reflects foot and mouth related restrictions placed on a number of key Brazilian states for much of the year. The outlook for 2007 is for Brazil to gradually regain exports to the market making trade more difficult for Irish exporters. However, export levels are expected to remain ahead of 2005 levels.
Japan Japan remained the best-performing International market for Irish pigmeat in 2006 with exports holding reasonably well at 12,000 tonnes cwe. Relatively high stock levels on the market for much of the year slowed trade. However, the limited volumes of US beer on the market have helped maintain demand for pigmeat. The market looks set to remain competitive during 2007, particularly if US and Canadian beef imports increase strongly. However, it will remain a valuable market for higher value pigmeat cuts from Ireland and other EU suppliers.
Market Performance
48
Global & EU Market Prospects Global trade in beef and pigmeat is expected to increase further in 2007 while trade in sheepmeat looks set to ease slightly. Trade levels are likely to be assisted by the following factors: A reduced level of concern regarding Avian Influenza Recovering US and Canadian beef exports following BSE restrictions in recent years Drought induced export growth from Australia, and Increased South American meat exports despite ongoing foot and mouth concerns.
Cattle and Beef The volume of beef produced by the world’s leading countries is anticipated by the USDA to increase by just over two per cent in 2007 to 54.7 million tonnes. This growth will be driven largely by higher production in China, Brazil and the United States, which together will account for almost 80 per cent of the anticipated growth. Increased production is also expected in India, Australia and Argentina. Rising beef demand reflecting growing disposable income levels is boosting production levels in both China and Brazil while improving profitability is the main factor boosting US production levels.
Global Beef Production Trends, 2007 Vs 2006
EU (15%) -1%
US (22%) +2%
China (14%) +6% India (5%) +5% Brazil (17%) +3%
Argentina (6%) +2%
Global & EU Market Prospects
Australia (4%) +7%
49
Beef Exports to rise by 7% The volume of beef exports by the world’s leading exporters looks set to increase by around seven per cent in 2007 to an estimated 7.5 million tonnes according to the USDA. This forecast is based on the assumption that the trading status of all exporting countries remains unchanged from the position of late 2006. The main driver behind this growth is an anticipated recovery of 30 per cent in US beef exports to 680,000 tonnes. This reflects the increased level of shipments expected to Asia in particular following BSE related trade restrictions over recent years. Other countries likely to have higher beef export availability throughout 2007 include Australia where ongoing drought problems are expected to boost production levels. As a result, exports are forecast to rise by over five per cent to almost 1.5 million tonnes. The level of Brazilian beef exports are forecast to rise by two per cent to almost two million tonnes with a strong domestic demand preventing any further rise. Argentina is also expected to show some recovery in export volumes, although much will depend on the government restrictions placed on beef exports. India continues to grow its export business with a further rise of seven per cent anticipated for 2007 bringing their annual exports to 800,000 tonnes.
Global Beef Exports, 2005 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 2,000
2005 2006(f)
1,500
2007(p)
1,000
500
Brazil
India
Argentina
Uruguay
EU
All major importers to increase trade in 2007 The United States will remain the world’s largest importer of beef in 2007 with a rise of six per cent forecast at 1.52 million tonnes. A stronger domestic demand combined with higher export volumes are expected to boost import levels. Having fallen during 2006 due to lower beef availability, Russian beef imports are forecast to recover by eight per cent in 2007 to over 900,000 tonnes with Brazil expected to increase shipments once more.
Global & EU Market Prospects
50
The return of US beef and the ongoing strong Australian exports to the market are forecast to boost Japan’s imports by as much as 10 per cent to 765,000 tonnes. Having seen lower imports in 2006 due principally to a disrupted South American supply, EU-25 imports of beef are forecast to rise by four per cent in 2007 to 560,000 tonnes. Towards the end of 2006 there were increasing signs that imports from Brazil were growing and this trend looks set to continue this year. However, the proportion of shipments in chilled form remains lower than in recent years, which reduces the direct pressure on EU producers.
Prospects for EU Beef Market A modest fall is anticipated in EU-25 beef production for 2007 reflecting lower supplies in Ireland, reduced prime cattle throughput in the UK and a drop in German supplies. However, when Romania and Bulgaria are added, overall EU-27 production is anticipated to reach 8.1 million tonnes, which represents a rise of 200,000 tonnes on the EU-25 levels of 2006. Consumption levels across the EU looks set to remain steady during 2007 despite relatively strong retail prices for beef. The accession of Romania and Bulgaria will boost overall consumption levels by 350,000 tonnes. This will leave consumption on an EU-27 basis standing at almost 8.6 million tonnes. These trends suggest that the size of the beef shortfall on the EU market looks set to increase from just over 300,000 tonnes in 2006 to in excess of 400,000 tonnes in 2007.
EU Beef Market Balance, 2000 – 2007 (‘000t cwe) EU-15
EU-25
EU-27
9,000 8,500
Consumption 8,000
Production 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 2000
2001
2002
Global & EU Market Prospects
2003
2004
2005
2006(f)
2007(p)
51
Imports boosted by New Member States The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU from January 2007 has boosted the overall EU import requirement by some 90,000 tonnes. Bulgaria imported around 60,000 tonnes in 2006 with over three quarters of this originating in Brazil. The fact that Brazil will now have to supply this market under EU requirements is likely to limit their shipments to some extent. Looking at the EU-25, import levels look set to increase somewhat following the reduction evident in 2006. However, two key issues will determine import volumes during the year, namely: The foot and mouth status of Brazilian exports. As of now, the EU veterinary visit planned for March will form the first part of a review of current restrictions that the EU has placed on Brazil. Until the report from that visit is available, it is difficult to determine whether any change is likely. However, even with these restrictions, Brazilian shipments to the EU showed little change in 2006, although the proportion that consisted of chilled cuts fell by almost seven per cent. Any return to full chilled shipments could impact strongly on returns for EU producers. However, little change is expected until early summer at the earliest. Government restrictions on Argentinian exports resulted in a drop of over 20 per cent in exports to the EU. As of now little relaxation is expected on these restrictions. This means that any recovery in Argentinian shipments in 2007 is likely to be modest. Taking these factors into account together with lower supplies anticipated from key EU producers, some recovery is expected in EU imports during 2007. On an EU 27 basis, beef imports are expected to reach just under 600,000 tonnes, which is around three per cent ahead of 2006 imports by the 27 states.
EU Beef Imports, 2000 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 600 500 EU-15
400
EU-25
300
EU-27 200 100 0 2000
2001
2002
Global & EU Market Prospects
2003
2004
2005
2006(f) 2007(p)
52
Within the EU, increased import requirements are anticipated in the UK, Germany and to a lesser extent Italy and the Scandinavian countries. This should provide ongoing opportunities for Irish exports, although volumes are likely to be affected by lower Irish supplies.
EU Exports to ease further While exports during 2006 held up better than expected reflecting a strong Russian demand, particularly in the first half of the year, volumes are expected to fall further in 2007. This reflects the likelihood that Brazil will once again be more active in Russia, lower refund rates making it increasingly difficult to be competitive and an EU demand that looks set to hold firm. Also, the accession of Bulgaria and to a lesser extent Romania may also present better opportunities for forequarter beef than some international markets. Live exports are likely to be largely confined to charity shipments to African and Eastern European countries, although Germany is expected to continue some shipments to the Middle East. Overall, EU-27 beef and live cattle exports are forecast to drop below 200,000 tonnes in 2007.
Cattle Prices EU male cattle prices increased by an estimated eight per cent during 2006 reflecting a solid consumer demand for beef across the EU. The stability in beef supplies should provide a solid platform for cattle prices in 2007. The relative price of beef increased quite strongly in 2006 to 153 per cent of the EU average meat price, which compares with 140 per cent as recently as 2004. This is the highest level evident since the early 1990’s. Any consumer reaction to this trend would impact on cattle prices in 2007. The volume of chilled beef imports on the market will also have a significant influence on cattle prices, particularly during the summer period. However, all things being equal, the prospects for EU cattle prices remain broadly positive.
Pigmeat A further rise of four per cent is anticipated for 2007 in the volume of pigmeat produced by the world’s largest pigmeat suppliers according to the USDA. This would leave production levels standing at 103.4 million tonnes. Within this figure, over three quarters of the growth is being driven by a rise of five per cent in Chinese production. This leaves China accounting for more than half the total at 55.8 million tonnes. Over the last five years, Chinese pigmeat production has increased by almost 30 per cent reflecting rising income levels and ongoing urbanisation evident in the country. Other countries expected to show increased production levels in 2007 include the United States at three per cent, Brazil at five per cent, Russia up six per cent and Vietnam rising by seven per cent.
Global & EU Market Prospects
53
Global Pigmeat Production Trends, 2007 Vs 2006
Canada (2%) -1%
EU (21%) n/c
US (10%) +3%
Russia (2%) +6% China (54%) +5% Vietnam (2%) +7%
Brazil (3%) +5%
Pigmeat Exports to Rise by 3% Higher US and Brazilian pigmeat exports are expected to boost overall export volumes by world’s key pigmeat countries by three per cent to almost 5.3 million tonnes according to the USDA. Exports of pigmeat by the United States are forecast to rise by four per cent to a record level of over 1.4 million tonnes. Export volumes exceed one million tonnes for the first time in 2004. US exports have been helped by the relative weakness of the US dollar, competitive prices and a good global demand for pigmeat helped by BSE and more recently Avian Influenza issues surrounding other meats, which led to Asian countries in particular increasing pigmeat consumption. Russia also continues to be a growth market for US pigmeat. Brazilian pigmeat exports are forecast to reach 570,000 tonnes in 2007 with most of the rise expected to markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and the Ukraine. Shipments to Russia fell by almost 40 per cent in 2006 and while some recovery is anticipated for this year, volumes are likely to remain well below the levels of the recent years. Little change is expected in exports from the EU and Canada, the worlds other major exporting countries.
Global & EU Market Prospects
54
Mixed Trends in Pigmeat Imports In terms of import market trends for 2007, only modest changes are anticipated in key markets. Japanese pigmeat imports are expected to slow marginally as increased beef supplies on the market puts pressure on pigmeat consumption. Russia, Mexico and Hong Kong all anticipate a rise of two per cent in import volumes, which represents a continuation of the trend evident in recent years in these markets. The major decline in import volumes is expected in Korea where a 13 per cent drop is forecast. Similar to Japan this partly reflects increased beef supplies expected on the market and also a recovery poultry demand.
Global Pigmeat Imports, 2005 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 1,500
2005 2006(f) 2007(p)
1,000
500
0 Japan
Russia
Mexico
United States
Hong Kong
Romania
Other
EU Market Prospects for 2007 Little change is anticipated in EU-25 pig supplies in 2007 with a relatively stable breeding herd during the second half of 2006 guiding production levels. Some increase in countries such as Germany, Spain, Poland and the United Kingdom are expected to be largely offset by stable or slightly lower supplies in other EU countries. The accession of Romania and Bulgaria will add almost 600,000 tonnes or three per cent to EU production in 2007. Of the two countries, Romania is the strongest producer at around 450,000 tonnes annually. On an EU-27 basis, overall production for 2007 is anticipated to reach 21.9 million tonnes, which is broadly similar to corresponding 2006 levels. EU Consumer demand for pigmeat was boosted in 2006 by some consumers switching to pigmeat from poultry reflecting uncertainty among some consumers following the outbreaks of Avian Influenza on the Continent. However, poultry demand has been recovering since the
Global & EU Market Prospects
55
second half of 2006 and looks set to recover further in 2007 to just under 21 million tonnes across the EU-27.
EU Pigmeat Production, 2000 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 25,000
20,000 EU-15 15,000
EU-25 EU-27
10,000
5,000
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(f) 2007(p)
EU Exports to Ease The volume of EU pigmeat export is forecast to ease back in 2007 due to what looks set to be a more competitive global EU market combined with the fact that Romania and Bulgaria have been relatively sizeable markets for EU pigmeat in recent years. With these countries now in the EU, this trade will boost intra EU trade while reducing EU exports. Exports to markets such as Russia and Japan are also expected to slow somewhat, particularly if the euro remains strong against the US dollar. For the year as a whole, EU exports are forecast to drop by over 10 per cent to around 1.1 million tonnes.
Pig Price Trends A more competitive EU and world market for pigmeat as poultry regains market share and higher US & Brazilian supplies are expected to put some pressure on EU pig prices as 2007 progresses. In additional, the threat of rising feed prices is likely to push up production costs while rising energy and environmental compliance costs impact on the processing sector. All of these factors suggest that profitability levels throughout the sector may come under some pressure during 2007. This follows a rise of five per cent in average EU prig prices in 2006 to €1.46/kg dw.
Global & EU Market Prospects
56
Sheepmeat Global Trends Little change is expected in sheepmeat production across the leading global sheepmeat exporters in 2007. Following a small reduction in 2006, New Zealand production looks set to stabilise throughout 2007. In terms of Australia, which has witnessed very strong growth in lamb exports over recent years, much depends on the drought conditions throughout the year. New Zealand’s breeding flock was three per cent higher in July 2006, which helped to offset a lower lambing rate. As a result, lamb supplies are expected to be largely maintained at just under 26 million head for the year ending September 2007. Lamb exports are forecast to show little change although trade will be helped by the relative weakness of the New Zealand dollar against the euro. Hogget and ewe supplies are expected to increase reflecting a poor grass situation over recent months. This will impact on the breeding flock as the year progresses. In terms of Australia, the severe drought conditions evident in many parts of the country are likely to influence sheep supplies during 2007, particularly if current conditions persist. Lamb and ewe supplies were six per cent higher in 2006 as producers increased marketing levels to offset the poor grazing conditions. Some of this rise was offset by lower carcase weights. If rainfall returns to normal it is expected that Australian sheep supplies will fall sharply in 2007 as producers are likely to recommence the flock building evident in the early part of this decade. This will reduce production levels by around four per cent with most of the fall evident in ewe supplies. Lamb disposals are expected to show a marginal decline to around 400,000 tonnes. Australian lamb exports continued their strong growth of recent years in 2006, recording a rise of almost four per cent to 147,000 tonnes pw. The United States remained the key market accounting for almost 25 per cent of the total. Trade to US improved strongly as the year progressed despite a less competitiveness position against the US dollar. Asia continues to grow in importance with higher lamb shipments recorded to Japan while sales to China were largely maintained. Despite a slow start to the year, Australia filled its EU quota of just under 19,000 tonnes in 2006. Lower lamb availability in 2007 is likely to result in lamb exports stabilising.
EU Market Prospects for 2007 The ongoing decline in the EU breeding flock will reduce EU sheepmeat production further in 2007. On an EU-25 basis, production is expected to fall by as much as four per cent leaving the EU producing less than one million tonnes of sheepmeat. When Bulgaria and Romania are added to this figure it boosts overall production by some 96,000 tonnes or 10 per cent leaving EU-27 production at 1.09 million tonnes.
Global & EU Market Prospects
57
The drop in production levels during 2007 are likely to be largely driven by lower UK, French and Irish production levels. The only major producer likely to show any rise is Spain as the sector recovers from drought and bluetongue disruptions of recent years.
EU Sheepmeat Production Trends, 2007 vs. 2006 (% change) 4.0 2.0
3 1
0.0 -2.0
-1 -4
-4.0
-6
-6.0
-8
-8.0 -10.0 EU-27
Ireland
UK
France
Spain
Italy
EU sheepmeat consumption is expected to fall broadly in line with production during 2007 with a four per cent decline anticipated. This would leave consumption across the EU-27 at 1.33 million tonnes. However, consumer demand for lamb seems to be holding reasonably well, which would suggest that there is scope for stabilising consumption levels if adequate supplies were available. However, the relative price of sheepmeat means that it is always going to be expensive compared to most other meats, which reduces the potential for any significant increase.
Increased Imports from New Zealand In 2006 New Zealand fill their annual EU import quota of 227,854 tonnes for the first time in three years. This represented a rise of three per cent on 2005 levels. Within the total, the most significant growth took place in the fresh/chilled area with imports for the first 10 months of 2006 running some 27 per cent ahead of 2005. For the year, imports of fresh chilled sheepmeat are estimated to have increased to almost 45,000 tonnes. This trend looks set to continue in 2007 with chilled shipments likely to return to their average annual growth rate since the late 1990s of 10 per cent. The relative competitiveness of New Zealand lamb is expected to boost trade further, particularly to the UK.
Global & EU Market Prospects
58
New Zealand Fresh/Chilled Exports to the EU (Tonnes pw) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000
2001
Global & EU Market Prospects
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(f)
59
European Union Enlargement 2007 On the 1st January 2007, Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union bringing the total number of member states to 27. This latest EU enlargement adds over 29 million people or six per cent to the European Union population. The EU-27 population stands at around 495 million people, leaving it as the third most populated political entity in the world after China and India. Romania is the larger of the two new accession states with a population of almost 22 million people while the current Bulgarian population stands at just under 8 million. The previous enlargement of the EU took place in May 2004 when ten states joined including eight CEEC states together with Malta and Cyprus. This boosted the EU population by over 74 million.
Enlargement of EU, 1957 to 2007
1957 BE-DE-FR-IT-LU-NL 1973 DK-IE-UK 1981 GR 1986 ES-PT 1994 AT-FL-SE 2004 CY-CZ-EE-HU-LT LV-MT-PL-SL-SK
2007 BG-RO
Meat & Livestock Sectors in Accession States Over 55 per cent of the land in Romania is farmed by 4.3 million people, which means the majority of Romanian farms are small 1-2 hectare family run units. The remainder of farms average between 1 and 5 hectares in size. A large proportion of farms are owned and run by cooperatives. There are approximately 680,000 farms in Bulgaria with one third of the land owned by private farmers. The average family farm size stands at 1.3 hectares. Co-operatives own and farm the remaining two thirds of the total agricultural land with the largest accounting for over 40 per cent of the total.
EU Enlargement 2007
60
Pigmeat is the main meat consumed in Romania and Bulgaria, followed by beef, while sheepmeat consumption is low but rising slightly. Both countries combined are only 74 per cent self-sufficient in beef production and 78 per cent self-sufficient in pigmeat production. Therefore they have a substantial import requirement in each of these meats. However, sheepmeat selfsufficiency stands at 102 per cent, leaving a small amount for export.
Cattle & Beef Accession States Beef Balance
Distribution of EU Beef Production (%)
(‘000t cwe unless stated otherwise)
Romania
Bulgaria
Herd (m head)
2.9
0.7
Production
203
60
Beef Imports
30
60
Beef Exports
3
0
Consumption - ‘000t cwe - Kg per head
230 10.5
120 15
Self Sufficiency
88%
50%
EU-15 91% 2004 Accession 6%
Romania 2%
Bulgaria 1%
The new member states have a combined cattle herd of 3.6 million head and their accession to the EU will increase the total EU herd by four per cent. There are approximately 400,000 cows in Bulgaria and 1.7 million in Romania. The cow herds in both countries are predominantly made up of dairy and dairy-cross breeds. Farms with one to two cows account for over fifty per cent of the total cow herd reflecting the strong levels of subsistence farming in these states. Total beef production in Romania and Bulgaria stands at approximately 260,000 tonnes, around three per cent of the current EU-25 output. Romania alone accounts for just over 200,000 tonnes of total production. The majority of production comes from small, mixed farm enterprises. The majority of beef produced in Bulgaria comes from the dairy herd essentially as a by-product of milk production there. Imports in amounted to 90,000 tonnes, with Bulgaria accounting for 60,000 tonnes. This figure is expected to have increased in 2006. The majority of imports are from Brazil (almost 80 per cent) and mainly consist of frozen product destined for further processing. Neither country exports any beef but do ship some live cattle (20,000 tonnes equivalent) to countries such as Italy and Spain with some trade also to the Middle East.
EU Enlargement 2007
61
Consumption stands at around 350,000 tonnes for both countries with average per capita consumption higher in Bulgaria at 15 kilos compared to 10.5 kilos in Romania. On-farm consumption levels are high in each country. The previous enlargement in 2004, increased EU beef production by approximately 500,000 tonnes or seven per cent. EU consumption levels rose by a similar amount. It is interesting to note that in 1996 the EU was producing a similar amount of beef with just 15 member states compared to 27 member states in 2007. This gives an indication of the falling levels of beef production in the EU over the past decade.
Pigmeat Accession States Pigmeat Balance
Distribution of EU Pigmeat Production (%)
(‘000t cwe unless stated otherwise)
Romania
Bulgaria
Herd (m head)
4.9
0.9
Production
455
122
Meat Imports
153
17
Meat Exports
5
2
Consumption - ‘000t cwe - Kg per head
603 27.5
137 17.5
Self Sufficiency
75%
89%
EU-15 82%
2004 Accession 15%
Romania 2%
Bulgaria 1%
The total pig herd for both countries is approximately 5.8 million head with Romania accounting for 4.9 million of the overall figure. Annual production in Romania has fluctuated over the last number of years and now stands at around 455,000 tonnes. Overall, Romania and Bulgaria will add 580,000 tonnes or three per cent to EU production. Around three quarters of all pigs are kept on small individual farms although some concentration of the pigmeat sector has started with large multinational meat processors such as Smithfield recently moving into the Romanian market. With growing consumption levels, particularly in Romania, and steady production, import levels have been rising and are expected to continue to do so. Imports for both countries stood at 170,000 tonnes in 2005 with the majority of supplies coming from Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Exports from both countries are virtually non-existent given the current low self-sufficiency levels. EU pigmeat production and consumption increased by just over three million tonnes or around 20 per cent following the previous EU expansion in 2004. EU-25 production levels have continued to increase over the last 2 years while consumption has remained relatively stable.
EU Enlargement 2007
62
Sheepmeat Accession States Sheepmeat Balance
Distribution of EU Sheepmeat Production (%)
(‘000t cwe unless stated otherwise)
Romania
Bulgaria
Herd (m head)
8.3
2.1
Production
53
43
Meat Imports
2
0
Meat Exports
0
8
Consumption - ‘000t cwe - Kg per head
55 2.6
35 4.5
96%
123%
Self Sufficiency
EU-15 90% 2004 Accession 2%
Romania 5%
Bulgaria 3%
The combined sheep flock of both countries stands at over 10 million head with the ewe flock currently standing at approximately eight million head representing 13 per cent of the total EU breeding flock. Romania accounts for 8.3 million head of the total. The majority of sheep are kept for milk production in the new accession states. Consequently light lamb is the main meat product produced. Their light lamb supply will account for eight per cent of overall EU production in 2007. Smaller, hardier breeds are used in both countries, which are well adapted to the continental climate conditions in mountainous areas. The sheep flock has been falling in Bulgaria in recent years while rising in Romania. Romania is the main supplier of live animals in the region, exporting almost 17,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent in live shipments. Bulgaria meanwhile, exports around 8,000 tonnes of light lamb to countries such as France at various times of the year. Consumption has risen in Romania recently and is expected to continue to do so. Current consumption per capita is in the range of 2.6 kilos in Romania compared to 4.5 kilos per capita in Bulgaria. As with beef, there are high levels of on-farm consumption in both countries. Demand for sheepmeat reaches its highest level at Easter in the region with demand also rising during Christmas. The ten accession states in 2004 added just 25,000 tonnes or two per cent to the total EU sheepmeat production figure to leave the EU-25 output at 1.058 million tonnes, as many of the new member states had relatively small commercial sheep industries. This has since fallen to under 1 million tonnes and is still in decline. Sheepmeat consumption increased by just 14,000 tonnes following the accession of 10 new members in 2004. This figure may have been affected however, by relatively strong levels of subsistence farming and on-farm consumption in the 10 new member states.
EU Enlargement 2007
63
Statistical Appendix Cattle and Beef Irish Beef Balance Sheet, 1997 to 2006 Irish Cattle Numbers, June 1996 to 2005 Irish Cattle Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1996 to 2006 Average Carcase Weights, 1997 to 2006 Irish Beef Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Live Cattle Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Cattle Prices by Month, 2000 to 2006 Quarterly Cattle Slaughterings at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006
Sheep & Sheepmeat Irish Sheepmeat Balance Sheet, 1996 to 2006 Irish Sheep Numbers, June 1996 to 2005 Irish Sheep Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006 Irish Sheepmeat Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Lamb Prices by Month, 2000 to 2006 Quarterly Sheep Slaughterings at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006
Pigs & Pigmeat Irish Pigmeat Balance Sheet, 1996 to 2006 Irish Pig Numbers, June 1996 to 2005 Irish Pig Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006 Northern Ireland Pig Supplies, 1997 to 2006 Irish Pigmeat Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Grade 'E' Prices by Month, 2000 to 2006 Quarterly Pig Slaughterings at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006
Statistical Appendix
64
Cattle and Beef Population
3664000
3703000
3742000
3790000
3847000
3917000
3979000
4044000
4131000
4235000
Irish Beef Balance Sheet ('000 tonnes cwe) 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006(e)
GIP Production*
570
611
704
633
591
554
590
578
567
599
Net Production (Slaughterings)*
558
586
634
568
569
530
561
555
542
569
19
15
10
12
21
16
18
30
32
33
472
523
643
520
350
464
500
499
488
516
Commerical
472
510
554
504
350
463
495
499
488
516
Stock Change (2)
30
-3
-80
-18
164
5
-5
0
0
0
+ Beef Imports - Beef Exports (1) of which:
Consumption (3) - '000 tonnes cwe - Kg/head
75
81
81
78
76
77
84
86
86
86
20.5
21.9
21.6
20.6
19.8
19.7
21.1
21.3
20.8
20.3
* excludes animals removed under BSE control programmes (1) Includes sales of Intervention beef (2) Changes in public stocks, market support schemes such as PFD & SPS and private stock changes due to exceptional market conditions (3) Residual figure after allowing for stock changes
Irish Cattle Numbers, June 1996-2005 ('000 head)*
Total Cattle
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
7,313
7,534
7,641
7,389
7,039
7,050
6,991
7,000
7,017
6,889 2,348
2,379
2,454
2,482
2,418
2,365
2,380
2,318
2,343
2,363
- Dairy
1,266
1,252
1,234
1,201
1,178
1,183
1,164
1,156
1,156
1,117
- Other
1113
1202
1,248
1,217
1,187
1,197
1,154
1,187
1,207
1,231
Heifers in-calf
360
388
356
331
332
331
374
353
370
368
- Dairy
231
244
229
214
207
198
231
216
230
227
- Other
129
144
127
117
125
133
143
137
140
141
47
51
53
55
56
59
63
64
67
69
Cows
Bulls Two years old & over
1,036
986
1,002
1,058
1,017
941
844
902
910
906
- Male
732
690
708
737
722
642
560
599
605
608
- Female
304
296
294
321
295
299
284
303
305
298
One to two years
1,639
1,717
1,783
1,706
1,517
1,515
1,593
1,577
1,535
1,510
- Male
996
1,055
1,086
1,039
912
913
992
983
950
890
- Female
643
662
697
667
605
602
601
594
585
620
1,852
1,938
1,965
1,821
1,752
1,824
1,799
1,761
1,772
1,688
974 878
1023 915
1055 910
965 856
919 833
955 869
953 846
922 839
930 842
856 832
Under one year - Male - Female Source: CSO
Figures may vary slightly due to rounding. Revised Intercensal series, June 1995-2000 * June 2006 figures unavailable
Irish Cattle Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997-2006 ('000 head)
Total Cattle
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1,625
1,763
1,997
1,755
1,781
1,666
1,762
1,724
1,606
1,692
- Steers
950
992
1061
900
955
862
919
860
785
811
- Heifers
320
352
461
430
376
418
432
404
362
418
- Cows
321
390
415
360
366
322
335
344
342
358
5
22
48
65
40
54
94
95
79
34
24
38
17
19
24
22
22
22
26
- Young Bulls - Others
Statistical Appendix
65
Average Cattle Carcase Weights, 1997-2006 (kg) 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Steers
352
343
337
338
337
334
334
338
352
351
Heifers
288
279
268
265
267
265
267
272
286
287
Cows Young Bulls
285
278
279
281
287
284 333
288 321
295 320
304 351
301 362
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Irish Beef Exports, 1997 - 2006 ('000 tonnes cwe)
Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
472
510
554
504
350
463
495
499
2005 2006(e)
489
516
of which to: UK
104
85
95
112
225
257
251
270
260
250
Cont. EU
89
130
150
135
72
116
162
173
192
228
- France
25
45
49
36
13
18
20
24
45
52
- Italy
20
28
32
30
11
20
35
40
42
51
- Holland
18
25
32
27
25
30
39
42
40
45
- Scandinavia
20
22
25
24
13
30
35
34
33
40
3
5
6
6
3
6
9
12
14
16
- Spain - Portugal
2
1
2
4
3
4
6
8
9
11
- Other*
1
4
4
8
4
8
18
13
9
13
Int. mkts
279
295
309
257
53
90
82
56
37
38
- Russia
74
52
33
11
43
83
76
47
27
30
- Egypt
83
120
154
150
0
0
1
1
1
0
- Other
122
123
122
96
10
7
5
8
9
8
Source: Bord Bia estimates * includes New Member States from 2004 (e) 2006 figures estimated
Irish Live Cattle Exports, 1997-2006 ('000 head) 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
57
171
416
403
101
147
218
134
185
250
Int. Mkts
7
29
74
65
11
32
37
12
10
1
Total of which to:
- Lebanon
2
29
74
63
11
32
37
12
10
0
- Other
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Cont. EU
23
137
324
311
40
73
141
74
148
221
- Spain
15
87
196
182
32
57
86
21
50
72
- Italy
5
30
75
60
5
10
18
20
47
67
- Holland
2
15
35
53
1
5
35
31
44
52
- France
0
1
10
14
1
0
0
0
5
12
- Belgium
1
3
5
1
0
0
1
2
1
17
- Other
0
1
3
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
27
5
18
27
50
42
40
48
28
28
United Kingdom
NOTE: From 2002, live exports are based on CMMS database & are not directly comparable with earlier years
Statistical Appendix
66
Irish Cattle Prices by Month, 2000-2006 (c/kg dw excl VAT) R3 Steers 2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
238.3
246.5
243.4
235.8
245.4
267.1
278.6
February
247.3
236.2
248.9
233.9
252.8
277.5
279.5
March
246.6
241.6
246.1
228.6
254.8
280.4
284.7
April
249.6
243.0
244.7
229.1
262.2
282.0
290.2
May
257.8
236.9
243.1
230.7
266.9
281.9
293.2
June
267.7
238.2
242.9
235.2
273.5
279.3
290.5
July
259.8
236.3
235.3
233.6
264.5
256.6
278.1
August
258.0
219.3
227.2
231.6
254.9
238.7
270
September
256.4
221.1
225.3
224.7
247.4
235.2
276.2
October
247.2
215.2
221.9
225.4
234.7
235.3
279.3
November
236.2
215.7
223.2
229.8
236.5
251.5
279.1
December YEAR
218.6 248.6
220.3 230.9
230.1 236.0
239.1 231.5
242.0 253.0
269.5 262.9
279.1 281.6
2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
223.6
248.2
250.4
240.7
243.5
268.4
279.1
February
233.9
232.4
251.9
238.2
252.2
277.7
279.9
March
235.3
240.9
247.3
233.6
254.6
281.1
285.5
April
241.9
241.6
245.5
232.9
261.8
283.7
291.1
Irish R3 Steer Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
J
300
F 280
M A
260
M J
240
2006
J
2005
A
220
S
200
O 180 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
NO
N
D
N
D
N
D
D
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
R3 Heifers Irish R3 Heifer Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 300
280
May
251.4
238.8
243.7
233.4
266.8
283.9
294
June
263.5
240.5
244.2
237.2
274.1
282.3
292.7
July
258.8
234.8
236.9
235.3
265.6
263.8
282.3
August
256.6
219.3
228.2
235.3
255.6
249.4
274
September
256.4
223.6
228.1
228.2
249.6
246.4
279.5
October
245.4
221.8
225.2
227.1
238.0
244.8
282.4
November
236.4
227.5
230.2
232.5
241.4
258.7
282.4
December* YEAR
227.7 244.2
233.6 233.6
236.7 239.0
239.7 234.5
242.0 253.8
270.8 267.6
283.8 283.9
2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
151.5
165.1
172.6
152.4
179.9
205.2
228.8
260
February
160.2
166.0
171.8
166.1
197.2
220.0
233.2
240
March
166.3
169.0
175.2
167.8
202.9
227.8
241.6
April
181.3
175.6
177.1
169.0
210.1
230.0
249.1
May
202.7
167.1
175.3
173.9
217.5
228.9
252.7
June
217.6
164.4
166.8
179.5
223.9
213.7
235.4
July
207.3
163.9
154.5
168.3
200.6
190.7
216.9
160
August
209.0
161.8
151.5
166.1
189.6
189.9
218.1
140
September
209.4
169.4
154.6
161.1
188.0
193.6
225.0
120
October
197.7
164.7
149.6
163.4
181.3
187.9
227.0
November
162.7
164.3
134.7
161.4
183.8
198.9
226.4
December* YEAR
134.8 183.4
178.8 167.5
136.7 161.0
165.3 166.2
183.0 196.5
209.7 208.0
221.2 231.3
260
2006
240
2005 220
200 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
O3 Cows Irish O3 Cow Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
220 200 180
2006 2005
100 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Statistical Appendix
67
Quarterly Cattle Slaughterings at Meat Export Premises 1997 - 2006 ('000 head) Steers 1997 First Quarter % of Total
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
309
308
243
246
201
212
192
172
191
31.1%
29.0%
27.0%
25.8%
23.3%
23.1%
22.3%
21.9%
23.6%
207
198
225
202
230
202
212
173
134
187
21.8%
20.0%
21.2%
22.4%
24.1%
23.4%
23.1%
20.1%
17.1%
23.1%
210
203
247
220
227
237
258
259
262
218
22.1%
20.5%
23.3%
24.4%
23.8%
27.5%
28.1%
30.1%
33.4%
26.9%
Fourth Quarter % of Total
2000
281
Third Quarter % of Total
1999
29.6%
Second Quarter % of Total
1998
252
282
281
235
252
222
237
236
217
215
26.5%
28.4%
26.5%
26.1%
26.4%
25.8%
25.8%
27.4%
27.6%
26.5%
950
992
1,061
900
955
862
919
860
785
811
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
YEAR
Heifers
First Quarter % of Total
75
84
118
132
100
109
117
106
89
118
23.4%
23.9%
25.6%
30.7%
26.6%
26.1%
27.1%
26.2%
24.6%
28.2%
Second Quarter % of Total
71
73
109
97
82
84
91
78
82
97
22.2%
20.7%
23.6%
22.6%
21.8%
20.1%
21.1%
19.3%
22.7%
23.2%
Third Quarter % of Total
77
93
110
100
83
93
94
93
82
93
24.1%
26.4%
23.9%
23.3%
22.1%
22.2%
21.8%
23.0%
22.7%
22.2%
Fourth Quarter % of Total
97
102
124
101
111
132
130
127
109
110
30.3%
29.0%
26.9%
23.5%
29.5%
31.6%
30.1%
31.4%
30.1%
26.3%
320
352
461
430
376
418
432
404
362
418
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
YEAR
Cows
First Quarter % of Total
78
82
94
97
67
74
72
65
57
76
24.3%
21.0%
22.7%
26.9%
18.3%
23.0%
21.5%
18.9%
16.7%
21.2%
78
102
98
104
64
61
74
68
84
88
24.3%
26.2%
23.6%
28.9%
17.5%
18.9%
22.1%
19.8%
24.6%
24.6%
Second Quarter % of Total Third Quarter % of Total
84
115
110
91
105
88
89
97
97
95
26.2%
29.5%
26.5%
25.3%
28.7%
27.3%
26.6%
28.2%
28.4%
26.5%
Fourth Quarter
81
91
113
68
130
99
100
114
104
99
% of Total
25.2%
23.3%
27.2%
18.9%
35.5%
30.7%
29.9%
33.1%
30.4%
27.7%
YEAR % Previous Dec cow herd
321 14.0%
390 16.5%
415 17.3%
360 15.4%
366 15.9%
322 14.0%
335 14.7%
344 15.1%
342 15.0%
358 15.9%
Statistical Appendix
68
4E+06
Population
Sheep and Sheepmeat 3664000
3703000
3742000
3790000
3847000
3917000
3979000
4044000
4131000
4235000
Irish Sheepmeat Balance Sheet ('000 tonnes cwe) 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006(e)
GIP Production
85
71
82
85
78
74
64
60
68
70
68.5
Net Production (Slaughterings)
90
75
87
90
83
78
67
63
72
75
71.5
+ Sheepmeat Imports
1.0
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2
2
3
3
3.0
- Sheepmeat Exports
67
49
59
60
55
62
49
45
55
58
54.0
24.0
27.6
30.0
32.0
30.0
18.0
19.2
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.5
6.6
7.5
8.1
8.6
7.9
4.7
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
Consumption - '000 Tonnes cwe - Kg/head (e) 2006 figures estimated
Irish Sheep Numbers, June 1996 - 2005 ('000 head)* 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
TOTAL SHEEP
7,888
8,132
8,312
7,926
7,555
7,331
7,209
6,849
6,777
6,204
Total Breeding Flock
4,466
4,492
4,577
4,399
4,216
4,020
3,909
3,718
3,670
3,363
Ewes for Breeding
4,356
4,380
4,463
4,287
4,106
3,915
3,804
3,615
3,543
3,267
110
112
114
112
110
105
105
103
100
97
3,422
3,640
3,735
3,527
3,339
3,311
3,300
3,131
3,107
2,841
Rams Other Sheep Source: CSO Figures may not add due to rounding Revised Intercensal series, June 1995-2000 * June 2006 survey results unavailable
Irish Sheep Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997-2006 ('000 head )
TOTAL
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3,092
3,652
3,902
3,543
3,498
2,911
2,785
3,229
3,280
3,149
2,766
3,234
3,426
3,075
3,109
2,516
2,409
2,766
2,765
2,693
326
418
476
468
389
395
376
463
515
456
of which:
Lambs Cull Ewes
Irish Sheepmeat Exports, 1997-2006 ('000 tonnes cwe)
Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006(e)
49.0
59.0
60.0
55.0
62.0
49.0
44.0
53.6
58.0
54.0
of which to: France
36.0
43.0
45.0
41.0
47.0
35.0
29.0
32.3
33.7
31.5
UK
4.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.9
6.8
8.0
12.0
14.0
12.5
Germany
3.6
3.0
4.5
3.1
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.4
2.1
2.0
Italy
1.3
2.0
1.5
0.8
2.0
1.9
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.3
Spain
1.0
0.6
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.4
Portugal Other
1.0 2.1
2.8 3.6
1.0 2.4
1.5 3.1
1.5 3.8
1.5 2.0
1.0 3.0
1.3 4.1
1.0 5.4
0.8 5.5
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Statistical Appendix
69
Irish Lamb Prices by Month, 2000-2006 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 2000
January
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
289.6
378.7
476.1
363.3
348.3
350.9
316.8
February
353.8
421.2
411.6
367.1
389.4
343.8
322.1
March
372.0
490.0
383.1
370.8
405.2
353.1
341.5
April
367.6
441.2
402.7
421.3
425.6
366.2
393.7
May
338.7
496.9
419.1
472.0
422.3
374.0
408.0
June
298.4
447.8
385.3
396.7
381.0
372.6
386.7
July
263.2
430.0
328.5
341.6
354.0
334.9
336.6
August
278.7
401.1
347.1
344.8
332.8
315.6
326.0
September
281.7
424.7
354.9
334.2
332.0
306.0
325.4
October
280.9
429.3
339.9
323.7
320.8
303.8
329.1
November December*
306.8 341.3
480.8 502.7
348.6 351.9
321.8 324.0
330.4 337.3
314.2 324.4
327.5 330.8
YEAR
314.4
445.4
380.1
365.1
364.9
338.3
345.3
Irish Lamb Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl.VAT) 450
400
350
300
250
2005 2006
200
150
100 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Quarterly Sheep Slaughterings at Meat Export Premises 1997 - 2006 ('000 head) Lambs 1997 First Quarter % of Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
396
487
571
470
494
248
427
451
551
476
15.1%
16.7%
15.3%
15.9%
9.9%
17.7%
16.3%
19.9%
17.7%
826
900
1,000
937
825
677
666
710
729
740
29.9%
27.8%
29.2%
30.5%
26.5%
26.9%
27.6%
25.7%
26.4%
27.5%
Third Quarter % of Total
1999
14.3%
Second Quarter % of Total
1998
912
1,048
1,000
910
1,020
897
731
879
755
810
33.0%
32.4%
29.2%
29.6%
32.8%
35.7%
30.3%
31.8%
27.3%
30.1%
Fourth Quarter
632
799
855
758
770
694
585
725
730
667
% of Total
22.8%
24.7%
25.0%
24.7%
24.8%
27.6%
24.3%
26.2%
26.4%
24.8%
YEAR
2,766
3,234
3,426
3,075
3,109
2,516
2,409
2,765
2,765
2,693
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Cull Ewes
First Quarter % of Total
47
54
69
74
67
48
56
55
116
91
14.4%
12.9%
14.5%
15.9%
17.2%
12.2%
14.9%
11.9%
22.5%
20.0%
Second Quarter % of Total
83
70
117
118
109
86
97
104
109
104
25.5%
16.7%
24.6%
25.3%
28.0%
21.8%
25.8%
22.5%
21.2%
22.9%
Third Quarter % of Total
100
109
160
145
113
133
121
163
150
142
30.7%
26.1%
33.6%
31.1%
29.0%
33.7%
32.2%
35.2%
29.1%
31.2%
Fourth Quarter % of Total
96
185
130
129
100
128
102
141
140
118
29.4%
44.3%
27.3%
27.7%
25.7%
32.4%
27.1%
30.5%
27.2%
25.9%
YEAR % previous Dec ewe flock
326
418
476
466
389
395
376
463
515
455
7.7%
9.7%
11.2%
11.4%
9.9%
10.4%
10.1%
12.6%
14.8%
14.2%
Statistical Appendix
70
Pigs and Pigmeat ####
Population
3664000
3703000
3742000
3790000
3847000 3917000
3979000
4044000
4131000
4235000
Irish Pigmeat Balance Sheet ('000 tonnes cwe) 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
GIP Production
221
242
255
256
241
245
245
240
238
242
240
Net Production (Slaughterings)
211
221
243
251
231
241
231
217
204
205
206
+ Pigmeat Imports
29
29
34
34
43
44
46
48
48
58
53
- Pigmeat Exports
101
108
125
135
124
135
127
118
103
113
109
Consumption - '000 Tonnes cwe
139
142
152
150
150
150
150
147
149
150
150
- Kg/head
38.4
38.8
41.0
40.1
39.6
39.0
38.3
36.9
36.8
36.3
35.4
(e) 2006 figures estimated
Irish Pig Numbers, June 1997-2005 ('000 head)*
Total Pigs
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1,700
1,819
1,787
1,722
1,741
1,770
1,713
1,645
1,681 173
of which: Breeding Pigs
192
200
193
181
187
185
176
170
- Gilts in pig
27
26
26
20
21
19
19
19
18
- Sows in pig
104
111
110
110
107
110
104
102
100
- Other sows - Gilts not yet served - Boars Fattening Pigs
37
39
37
30
36
32
31
29
32
18
20
17
18
20
21
18
17
20
5
5
4
4
3
4
3
3
3 1,508
1,508
1,619
1,594
1,541
1,554
1,584
1,538
1,475
- 80 kg and over
140
169
142
129
144
154
169
132
136
- 50kg and under 80kg
391
430
409
379
377
390
373
369
380
- 20kg and under 50kg - Less than 20kg
530 447
551 469
551 493
507 527
479 555
485 556
466 529
467 507
477 515
Source: CSO * June 2006 survey results unavailable
Irish Pig Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997-2006 ('000 head)
Total Pigs
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2,750
3,118
3,335
3,048
3,196
3,038
2,834
2,684
2,618
2,619
Northern Ireland Pig Supplies, 1997-2006 ('000 head)
Total Pigs
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1,514
1,403
1,274
1,295
1,067
1,228
1,337
1,311
1,297
1,195
Statistical Appendix
71
Irish Pigmeat Exports,1997 - 2006 ('000 tonnes pw) 000 tonnes pw Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
108
125
132
120
130
123
118
95
103
99
of which to: UK
58
66
70
66
66
68
61
46
52
49
Cont. EU
38
50
41
32
54
34
28
23
29
28 12
- Germany
15
18
16
15
19
14
12
10
12
- France
10
13
10
8
14
7
4
3
4
5
7
11
10
5
8
6
4
3
3
3
- Italy - Other EU
Int. Mkts
6
8
5
4
13
8
8
8
11
8
12
9
21
22
10
21
29
26
22
22
- Japan
8
4
10
12
3
3
6
10
11
10
- USA
1
2
2
2
1
5
12
5
4
2
6
8
7
5
2
7
1
5
4
6
6
3
- Russia 3
- Other non-EU
3
10
8
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Irish Grade 'E' Pig Prices, 2000-2006 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
109.5
139.8
127.5
123.9
123.2
126.7
130.6
February
111.5
146.5
123.4
124.4
127.8
128.9
129.8
March
119.8
161.0
129.5
124.3
135.1
131.7
132.1
April
127.4
149.4
130.5
124.7
133.6
127.4
135.1
May
131.0
155.6
132.4
121.8
130.6
124.2
136.1
June
137.9
157.3
135.3
119.3
130.3
129.0
141.9
July
137.6
152.8
134.3
117.7
137.8
134.3
144.9
August
132.4
146.0
127.7
116.7
136.9
132.4
146.0
September
132.4
139.9
124.9
121.5
136.0
134.3
149.0
October
134.5
138.6
124.7
126.1
135.8
134.5
150.4
November
139.7
135.2
124.6
128.5
135.9
132.8
143.6
December*
140.6
134.8
124.8
128.2
133.8
133.2
141.0
YEAR
129.5
146.4
128.3
123.1
133.1
130.8
140.0
Grade 'E' Pig Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 160
150
140
130
120
2006 2005
110
100 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Quarterly Pig Slaughterings at Meat Export Premises 1997 - 2006 ('000 head) Total Pigs 1997 First Quarter % of Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
676
706
884
813
782
817
733
644
663
652
22.6%
26.5%
26.7%
24.5%
26.9%
25.9%
24.0%
25.3%
24.9%
664
721
811
738
786
743
704
648
603
656
24.1%
23.1%
24.3%
24.2%
24.6%
24.5%
24.8%
24.1%
23.0%
25.0%
Third Quarter % of Total
1999
24.6%
Second Quarter % of Total
1998
702
889
828
757
823
736
709
728
695
670
25.5%
28.5%
24.8%
24.8%
25.8%
24.2%
25.0%
27.1%
26.5%
25.6%
Fourth Quarter
708
802
812
740
805
742
688
664
657
641
% of Total
25.7%
25.7%
24.3%
24.3%
25.2%
24.4%
24.3%
24.7%
25.1%
24.5%
YEAR
2,750
3,118
3,335
3,048
3,196
3,038
2,834
2,684
2,618
2,619
Statistical Appendix
72
Executive Summary
2
Sectoral Review & Outlook
6
- Cattle and Beef
6
- Pigmeat
17
- Sheep and Sheepmeat
21
Market Performance
26
Global & EU Market Prospects
49
EU Enlargement 2007
60
Statistical Appendix
64
1
Executive Summary Review of 2006 The Irish Meat and Livestock Sector performed strongly in 2006 with the value of exports rising by 10 per cent to almost €2.4bn. The principal export growth was evident in beef followed by pigmeat and livestock, which helped offset a fall in the value of sheepmeat exports.
Beef
•
The value of Irish beef exports increased by 14 per cent in 2006 to reach almost €1.53 billion. Improved market returns combined with a rise of over five per cent in meat plant supplies boosted the value of exports.
•
Exports of beef to European markets recorded their fifth successive year of growth, rising by six per cent to almost 480,000 tonnes or 93 per cent of total shipments. Higher import requirements in key markets together with the growing profile of Irish beef among premium beef customers across Europe helped boost trade.
•
Shipments to the UK eased slightly to around 250,000 tonnes cwe with a value of €750 million. This represents just under 50 per cent of the total. Irish exports were helped by lower chilled imports from South America and the slower than anticipated build up of UK cow supplies.
•
Sales to other EU markets grew by a further 20 per cent to reach an all time high of almost 230,000 tonnes and were worth an estimated €675 million. This leaves exports over 70,000 tonnes ahead of the levels achieved in the mid 1990’s. Market returns were helped by somewhat lower cattle supplies across the Continent and a reduced presence of South American chilled beef for much of the year. Higher shipments were recorded to all key markets.
•
Exports to International markets were boosted by an improved demand from Russia for much of the year, which led to shipments rising by 11 per cent to 30,000 tonnes cwe. Overall, exports to International markets were three per cent higher at 38,000 tonnes cwe despite a slowdown towards year end.
•
Average cattle prices increased by eight per cent in 2006. All categories of cattle witnessed higher prices with R3 steer prices rising by seven per cent to €2.82/kg dw excl. VAT while R3 heifer prices were six per cent higher. Cow prices performed strongly with O3 grade prices increasing by 11 per cent to €2.31/kg dw excl. VAT.
Pigmeat
•
The value of Irish pigmeat exports increased by five per cent in 2006 to reach €250 million. Improved market returns led to average pig prices rising by over seven per cent to €1.40/kg dw excl. VAT. This more than offset a drop of four per cent in export volumes at 109,000 tonnes cwe.
Executive Summary
2
•
The UK continues to account for almost 50 per cent of exports at 51,000 tonnes cwe. This represents a drop of five per cent on 2005 levels, reflecting a slow start to the year when the market was well supplied. However, tightening EU supplies as the year progressed boosted demand for Irish pigmeat.
•
Shipments to other EU markets were three per cent lower at 32,000 tonnes cwe. Germany remained the key market at 14,000 tonnes while increased shipments to France at 6,000 tonnes helped offset lower trade to other markets.
•
Exports to International markets were largely maintained during 2006 at 26,000 tonnes cwe. Japan remained the key market at 12,000 tonnes while exports to Russia increased by a factor of four to 8,000 tonnes cwe. This reflected reduced competition from Brazil on the market for much of the year due to foot and mouth restrictions.
Sheepmeat
•
The value of Irish sheepmeat exports were around five per cent lower in 2006 at an estimated €180m. A drop of seven per cent in export volumes was partly offset by a modest rise in lamb prices during the year.
•
The French market continues to account for 58 per cent of total exports at an estimated 31,500 tonnes. This represents a drop of six per cent on 2005 levels.
•
Diversification of exports continued during the year with shipments to Northern Europe rising by over 20 per cent to almost 4,000 tonnes. This helped to offset a slowdown of 10 per cent in exports to the UK due to lower ewe supplies.
•
Irish sheepmeat consumption performed strongly during the year recording a rise of three per cent to reach an estimated 20,500 tonnes, accounting for almost 30 per cent of total output.
•
Irish lamb prices increased by two per cent in 2006 to stand at €3.45/kg dw excl. VAT. The sluggish nature of the French market during the year combined with ongoing low returns for lamb skins and edible offal reduced the potential for any further price increase.
Live Animals •
Irish live cattle exports increased by 35 per cent during the year to reach 250,000 head, worth some €145 million. The principal drivers of this increase were a strong rise in calf and weanling shipments. Strong growth was recorded in exports to Italy, Spain, Holland, France and Belgium.
•
Live exports of pigs to Northern Ireland eased by an estimated eight per cent in 2006 to 480,000 head. This reflects lower overall finished pig supplies and improved Irish pig prices.
•
Exports of live sheep increased slightly to 100,000 head. Trade was helped by a good ewe trade to Britain and lamb exports to Northern Ireland.
Executive Summary
3
Outlook for 2007 Beef
•
The strong live exports of calves and weanlings in 2005/06 combined with a modest decline in calf registrations is expected to reduce finished cattle availability throughout 2007. However, this will be partly offset by a carryover of steers from late 2006.
•
Irish export meat plant cattle supplies in 2007 are expected to be in the range 1.6 – 1.63 million head. This represents a fall of up to five per cent relative to 2006. Most of the fall is anticipated in male cattle supplies with female disposals expected to hold up better.
•
The prospects for the market environment facing Irish beef exports in 2007 remain broadly positive. Tightening Irish cattle supplies combined with an increasing shortfall between EU beef production and consumption should provide a solid market environment for Irish beef.
•
Little change is anticipated in UK import requirements as cow supplies increase. However, much of this is likely to be offset by a drop of four per cent in UK prime cattle availability. Ireland is well positioned to increase its share of UK prime beef requirements.
•
In terms of Continental EU markets, lower Irish supplies are expected to reduce trade levels somewhat. However, given the prospects of tighter supplies across Europe, market demand for Irish beef looks set to remain strong.
•
The principal uncertainty facing the EU market is the level of restrictions on exports of Brazilian beef to the EU. Little change is expected until at least after an EU veterinary visit to Brazil in early spring. If restrictions are lifted, it could impact strongly on the steak cut trade in particular across the EU.
Pigmeat
•
Little change is expected in Irish pig supplies in 2007, reflecting a stable breeding herd. Meat plant supplies look set to be maintained at around 2.6 million head.
•
Pigmeat is likely to face renewed pressure from poultry across the EU as it regains market share. Also, any further strengthening of the euro against the US dollar would reduce the competitiveness of EU pigmeat on world markets as would a return to full market access for Brazilian pigmeat in Russia. However, consumer demand within the EU looks set to remain stable.
•
Given this background, the prospects for Irish pigmeat exports are less positive with profitability at producer level likely to come under pressure from rising feed prices as the year progresses. Also, the nitrates directive is likely to have an impact on costs from the second half of 2007.
Executive Summary
4
•
The UK market looks set to remain competitive given the rise in supplies likely from suppliers such as France and Spain. Trade to International markets is also likely to slow reflecting increased competition from the United States, Canada and Brazil.
•
The outlook for the Irish market is that demand levels are likely to remain steady with the domestic market expected to consume around 150,000 tonnes in 2007 accounting for half of total Irish output.
Sheepmeat
•
Irish sheep availability is expected to decline by up to eight per cent in 2007 reflecting strong ewe lamb disposals since the introduction of decoupled payments. This will impact on lamb supplies over the coming years. Cull ewe supplies are also expected to moderate. The strongest decline is expected in the first quarter of 2007, reflecting a lower carryover of lambs from 2006.
•
Exports are expected to decline in line with supplies. France will continue to remain the key market with their import requirements likely to be maintained in 2007. Sales to Northern European markets look set to continue strongly helped by a further rise in the proportion of exports in cut form.
•
Competition from New Zealand looks set to remain strong throughout 2007. After slowing in recent years, the volume of chilled New Zealand sheepmeat exports to the EU increased by almost 30 per cent in 2006. Some further growth is anticipated in 2007.
•
The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU will boost sheepmeat availability although both these markets were already actively trading with the EU, particularly in live lambs.
Live Animals
•
The outlook for Irish live cattle exports look reasonably good for 2007. However, exports of calves are likely to come under increased pressure from more competitively priced UK calf exports while overall demand for calves is likely to moderate from the strong levels evident in the early part of 2006.
•
Any decline in calf exports could be offset by an ongoing demand for weanlings and store cattle in Spain and Italy. Current shipping capacity in Ireland has resulted in a regular service with weather the only restricting factor. This situation looks set to continue into 2007.
Executive Summary
5
Sectoral Review – Cattle & Beef Cattle disposals 150,000 head higher Overall, cattle disposals in 2006 were at their highest level for three years at just over two million cattle. This increase in disposals of over eight per cent reflects an increase in the throughput of cattle at export meat pants combined with a strong live trade for calves and weanlings during the year. The key trends in disposals during 2006 were as follows:
A rise of over five per cent in export meat plant supplies.
A 35 per cent increase in live exports, principally to Continental EU markets.
Stabilisation in local abattoir supplies.
The increased supplies of prime cattle at export meat plants reflects both the lower levels of calf and weanling live exports and higher calf registrations in 2004. Supplies were further boosted by a higher carryover of prime cattle from the end of 2005 into 2006. Similar to 2005, the live trade in 2006 experienced a strong interest for young Irish cattle, reflecting a good continental demand and a competitive price position. Live calf exports were boosted by the very strong veal demand evident throughout the first half of 2006.
Irish Cattle Disposals, 2006 vs. 2005 (‘000 head) 2005
2006(e)
% Ch
Total
1,871
2,022
+8.1
Export Meat Plants
1,606
1,692
+5.4
Live Exports
185
250
+35.0
Local Abattoirs
80
80
n/c
Export Meat Plant Supplies over 5% Higher Cattle supplies at export meat plants increased by 86,000 head in 2006 to reach just over 1.69 million head. All of the increase in supplies was evident in the first half of the year when disposals were 97,000 head or 13 per cent ahead of corresponding 2005 levels. This reflected a carryover of cattle from 2005, increased availability due to a slow live trade in 2004 and an increased level of meal feeding. Supplies in the second half were broadly similar to 2005 up until December when numbers tightened considerably. This indicates some producers may have decided to carry forward cattle into 2007. Overall, prime cattle supplies were over five per cent higher in 2006 at just over 1.3 million head. In terms of the different categories of cattle, the following are the principal trends evident:
Heifers
Supplies were 56,000 head or 15 per cent above year earlier levels at 418,000 head. This reflects two key factors, namely:
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
6
1) 45,000 fewer under 12 month heifers were shipped live in 2004 compared to 2003. 2) Almost 13,000 more female calves were registered in the same year. 3) Lower intake to suckler herd due to little build up.
Steers
Steer throughput was 26,000 head above 2005 at 811,000 head, reflecting: 1) 11,000 less males under 12 months shipped live in 2004 compared to 2003 2) Almost 14,000 more male calf registrations recorded in the same year, and 3) Absence of live exports to international markets following the withdrawal of export refunds. In 2005, just under 9,500 male cattle were shipped to the Lebanon.
Young Bulls
Young bull supplies declined by around 16,000 head (-16%) during the year reflecting a return to more traditional disposal levels following a strong rise in 2005 as producers availed of the bull premium prior to the introduction of the single farm payment.
Cows
Cow throughput during the year increased by around five per cent to 358,000 head. This increase in supplies reflects a continued marginal decline in the cow herd and the highest cow prices since 1995 encouraging some producers to cull, especially in the first half of the year.
Irish Export Meat Plant Supplies, 2006 vs. 2005 (‘000 head) 100 80
86
60
56
40 20
26 16
0
-16 -20 -40 Total
Heifers
Steers
Cows
Y Bulls
More Stable Disposal Pattern Emerging In 2006, the principal jump in cattle supplies was evident in the first half of the year as shown in the graph below. This indicates the continued movement of farmers away for the traditional peak period of supply. This shift is a result of either a carryover through the winter months or actively finishing cattle earlier to avail of better returns.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
7
With census/retention dates to qualify for stocking densities and premium now eliminated through decoupling, farmers are no longer focussed on dates, and can carry animals for longer or shorter periods than they might previously have done. Almost 47 per cent of export meat plant steer throughput was seen in the first half of the year compared to less than 44 per cent in 2005. This equates to a difference of almost 20,000 steers.
Weekly supplies of prime cattle, 2005-2006 (head) 40,000 2005
35,000 30,000 Trend line 2006
25,000 Trend line 2005
20,000
2006
15,000
10,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Carcase Weights Stabilise Following two years of significant increases, average carcase weights stabilised in 2006. Average steer weights remained at around 351 kgs while heifer weights also showed little change at 287kgs. Young bull weights improved further on 2005 levels to average 362kgs, almost 11 kgs or three per cent higher than year earlier levels. Cow weights however eased back to 301kgs, following a nine kilo jump in 2005 to 304kgs. Steadier carcase weights could imply a more structured approach to production cycles at farm level as producers settle into a decoupled production system.
Average carcase weights at export meat plants, 2006 vs. 2005 (kgs) 2005
2006(e)
% Change
Steers
352
351
-0.3
Young Bulls
351
362
+3.2
Cows
304
301
-1.0
Heifers
286
287
+0.3
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
8
Conformation Results According to Department of Agriculture & Food figures, the classification of steers in 2006 showed a modest decline in overall conformation, although fat scoring did improve. This largely reflects the reduced live exports of dairy type animals in 2004, which boosted finished supplies of these cattle in 2006. Overall just 49 per cent of steers graded R or above, compared to 52 per cent in 2005. In terms of fat score, a total of 55 per cent of steers graded 3 compared to 52 per cent in 2005. This may reflect the increased level of meal feeding reported in 2006. With regard to heifers, little change was evident in conformation with almost 60 per cent grading R or better, compared to 63 per cent in 2005.
Irish Steer Classification, 2005 – 2006 (%) 2005
2006
U
R
O
URO
U
R
O
URO
2
0.7
3.4
4.5
8.6
2
0.8
4.1
6.1
11.0
3
3.2
21.6
23.0
47.8
3
3.2
22.0
25.2
50.4
4
2.2
19.6
12.9
34.7
4
2.0
15.9
11.2
29.1
2-4
6.1
44.6
40.4
91.1
2-4
6.0
42.0
42.5
90.5
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Market Distribution of Irish Beef As a result of the increase in cattle supplies, the volume of “commercial” beef produced at export meat plants increased by over five per cent to 548,000 tonnes in 2006. With local abattoir production standing at around 21,000 tonnes, total “commercial” beef production is estimated to have reached 569,000 tonnes. Given a relatively steady level of beef imports, the overall volume of beef available for the year reached 602,000 tonnes, an increase of over 27,000 tonnes on year earlier levels.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
9
Distribution of Irish “Commercial” Beef Production, 2006(e) – Tonnes cwe* Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
548,000t
21,000t
Total Production 569,000t
Beef Imports 33,000t
Total Beef Availability 602,000t
Exports
Consumption
516,000t
86,000t
* excludes animals removed under BSE control programmes
Domestic market consumption remains steady Consumption in the domestic market remained firm throughout 2006 at an estimated 86,000 tonnes. Retail sales preformed similar to 2005, although like many markets throughout Europe, sales were boosted slightly by a combination of better weather in the early part of the summer prompting an earlier BBQ season, and some consumers increasing beef purchases following the outbreaks of Avian Influenza across the Continent in the early part of the year. The foodservice market again posted good returns, and continues to account for almost 30 per cent of beef sales.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
10
Exports Increase in line with Supplies The increase of over five per cent in export meat plant supplies boosted export supplies in 2006, which reached 516,000 tonnes. This represents the highest level of beef exports since 1999. Exports to Continental EU markets reached an all time high level of almost 230,000 tonnes, rising by just under 20 per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. Sales to the Continent were helped by a higher import demand in key markets and a good consumer demand for beef. Irish beef continued to enhance its positions in key markets and is now listed with more multiple retail chains in more EU markets than beef of any other national origin. Despite the return of UK Over Thirty Month beef to the food chain, Irish exports to UK continued to perform strongly with shipments for the year reaching an estimated 250,000 tonnes. This represents a drop of just 10,000 tonnes on 2005 levels. Overall 93 per cent of beef exports remained in the EU, while 38,000 tonnes or seven per cent was shipped to International markets, principally Russia. Despite the lower export refunds prevailing, Russia remained a steady alternative outlet for forequarter cuts for almost nine months of the year, before increased market pressure in the form of cheaper South American product restricted the trade towards year end. However, shipments to Russia for the year are estimated to have increased by 11 per cent to 30,000 tonnes.
Distribution of Irish Beef Exports, 2006 vs. 2005 (‘000t cwe) 300
2005
250
2006(e)
200 150 100 50 0 UK
Cont. EU
Int. Mkts
Value of Beef Exports increase by 14% to over €1.5 billion Increased export volumes combined with better market returns boosted the value of Irish beef exports by an estimated 14 per cent in 2006 to around €1.53 billion. This represents a rise of almost €190 million on 2005 levels.
UK Market The anticipated decline in volumes of Irish beef post the return of UK cow beef to the food chain failed to appear to any significant degree in 2006. While volumes did ease back by around 10,000 tonnes, this reflected stronger continental demand and better positioning by Irish processors rather than a lack of UK demand. At retail level, Irish beef further consolidated its
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
11
position during the year with increased retailer interest in Irish beef as UK prime cattle supplies continue to contract. The market itself preformed well for the most of the year from an Irish perspective and reflected two key factors, the slower than anticipated exit of cows from farms to enter the food chain, and the lower availability of chilled steak cuts from South America on the market. These factors helped demand for both UK and Irish product, particularly at foodservice level. However despite the relatively good trade for the most part of the year, the final quarter experienced a slowdown in consumer spending. As a result, retail demand eased back somewhat.
All Time High Exports to Continental EU Following on from the significant progress made in 2005, almost 40,000 tonnes cwe more Irish beef was shipped to continental EU markets in 2006. This reflects the increased demand from the continent as domestic supplies decline and the significant efforts by the industry to develop retail and foodservice customers for Irish beef.
Irish Beef Exports to Continental EU, 1997 to date (‘000t cwe) 250 200 150 100 50 0 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06(f)
Key Continental Markets for Irish Beef Irish Beef Exports to Italy ('000t cwe)
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Irish Beef Exports to France ('000t cwe)
0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
Sectoral Review & Outlook
'05
'06(f)
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
Cattle and Beef
'06(f)
12
45
Irish Beef Exports to Holland ('000t cwe)
40
40
35
35
30
30
Irish Beef Exports to Scandinavia ('000t cwe)
25
25
20
20
15
15 10
10
5
5
0
0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06(f)
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06(f)
After an exceptional year in 2005, the rate of growth in exports to France eased back slightly in 2006, to around 19 per cent for the year, reaching 52,000 tonnes cwe. Further progress was made in growing the volume of Irish beef sold by French supermarkets. Exports to Italy grew by 9,000 tonnes during 2006 to reach an estimated 51,000 tonnes. This represents the fifth successive year of increased exports of Irish beef to the market. The market itself remained well supplied throughout the year, although the partial absence of large volumes of cheaper chilled steak cuts from South America was noticeable. In the Netherlands, shipments increased to 45,000 tonnes in 2006, a rise of 13 per cent on year earlier levels. This reflects the strong relationships that have been developed with Dutch customers over the last number of years. Trade to Scandinavia also increased significantly to reach 40,000 tonnes. Exports were boosted by a good demand for cow beef, with the strongest trade reported for manufacturing and mincing product.
International markets steady despite refund cuts Exports to international markets increased by an estimated three per cent in 2006 to 38,000 tonnes. Over 80 per cent of this trade was with Russia, which was 11 per cent higher than 2005 levels. This reflects a strong trade up to August in particular, despite lower export refunds towards the end of 2005. However as the year progressed, the Russian market for beef became more competitive with increased domestic and South American supplies on the market. The other principal international outlet for Irish beef continued to be Algeria at over 5,000 tonnes.
Live Cattle Exports 35 per cent higher Live cattle exports reached 250,000 head in 2006, up by 65,000 head on year earlier levels. The value of this trade is estimated at just over €145m.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
13
Irish Live Cattle Exports, 2000 to date (‘000 head) 450
UK
400
Int. Mkts
350
Cont. EU
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
The principal drivers of this increase were a strong rise in calf and weanling shipments. A very strong veal market combined with tight supplies from other exporters boosted Irish calf exports, particularly in the first half of the year. For the year as a whole, calf exports reached almost 105,000 head, some 69 per cent ahead of 2005 levels. The key markets were Holland at 52,000 head and Spain at 23,000 head. Exports of weanlings and store cattle also increased strongly reflecting an improving feedlot demand from Spain and Italy with 130,000 head shipped for the year as a whole. This compares with 108,000 head in 2005. The key destinations were Italy at 60,000 head and Spain at 48,000 head, with both taking an equal mix of male and female cattle. Over recent years, Italy has increasingly been the target for better bred weanlings and stores. This is particularly true of the autumn born stock, which become available at a time when prices are highest and demand is strong. Trade to Northern Ireland was maintained during the year at 28,000 head. Most of this trade was in stores/weanlings but also some finished cattle were exported for direct processing as the year progressed reflecting an improved beef trade in Northern Ireland.
Irish cattle prices average eight per cent higher in 2006 Average cattle prices increased by eight per cent in 2006, with all categories of cattle reporting higher prices. Overall, R3 steers averaged €2.82 cent/kg dw excl VAT. This was just over seven per cent higher than the 2005 average, or 19 cent/kg dw excl VAT. By mid year the average price was €2.86 /kg dw excl VAT, which was just three per cent above the same period in 2005 while prices in the second half were almost 12 per cent higher on average.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
14
Irish R3 Steer Prices, 2004 to 2006 (€/kg dw excl VAT) 3.5
3.0
2006
2.5
2004 2005
2.0
1.5 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
For heifers a similar situation was evident with prices for R3 heifers over six per cent higher at €2.84 /kg dw excl VAT. Similar to steers, the largest increase was evident during the August to October period. Cow prices were much stronger throughout the year, building on the momentum gained in the last quarter of 2005. The strong manufacturing trade across the UK and Continental Europe helped prices, which were 11 per cent higher for the year at €2.31/kg for O3 cows.
Outlook 2007 The strong live exports of calves and weanlings in 2005/06 combined with a modest decline in calf registrations is expected to reduce finished cattle availability throughout 2007. In 2005, an additional 46,000 male calves and weanlings were exported live. Calf registrations in the same year fell by 21,000 head. In addition, the strong exports of weanlings and store cattle to Italy in 2006 could also reduce finished cattle supplies. Given the strong reduction in steer supplies during December 2006, it is likely that there was at least the same number of finished cattle carried forward into the spring as was the case last year. The size of this carryover will have particular relevance for steer disposals in the first quarter of 2007. All things considered, Irish export meat plant cattle supplies in 2007 are expected to be in the range 1.6 – 1.63 million head, down 60-90,000 head on 2006. Most of the fall is anticipated in male cattle supplies with female disposals expected to hold up well. Lower finished cattle supplies will reduce beef exports by 4 to 5 per cent to in around 490,000 tonnes. The prospects for the market environment facing Irish beef exports in 2007 remain broadly positive. Tightening Irish cattle supplies combined with an increasing shortfall between EU beef production and consumption should provide a solid market environment for Irish beef. Little change is anticipated in UK import requirements as cow supplies increase. However, much of this is likely to be offset by a drop of four per cent in UK prime cattle availability. Ireland is well
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
15
positioned to increase its share of UK prime beef requirements. In terms of Continental EU markets, lower Irish supplies are expected to reduce trade levels somewhat. However, given the prospects of tighter supplies across Europe, market demand for Irish beef looks set to remain strong. Trade to International markets will be largely dictated by the level of demand for EU beef from Russia and the strength of competition from South American suppliers in particular. The principal uncertainty facing the EU market in 2007 is the level of restrictions on exports of Brazilian beef to the EU. Little change is expected in current restrictions until after an EU veterinary visit to Brazil in March 2007. If restrictions were lifted, it could impact strongly on the steak cut trade in particular. However, overall shipments from Brazil in 2006 were only two per cent lower than 2005 levels while chilled beef sales were seven per cent lower. However, with EU consumption set to remain stable, solid trading conditions for Irish beef look set to be maintained. The outlook for Irish live cattle exports look reasonably good for 2007. However, exports of calves in particular could come under increased pressure from more competitively priced UK calf exports with recent forecasts from the UK suggesting live exports could reach as high as 200,000 head in 2007. Overall import demand for calves is likely to moderate on the Continent as veal demand returns to more historical levels. Any decline in calf exports could be offset by an ongoing demand for weanlings and store cattle in Spain and Italy. However, this could also depend to some extent on the level of UK exports. Current shipping capacity in Ireland has resulted in a regular service with weather the major restricting factor and this situation looks set to continue into 2007. New regulations on welfare of livestock in transit are due to come into force in early 2007. However, the high standards of transport in place in Ireland should mean minimum modification is necessary.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Cattle and Beef
16
Pigs and Pigmeat Disposals remain steady Total pig disposals in the Republic of Ireland fell by just over one per cent during 2006 to 3.12 million head. Within the total, supplies at export meat plants were unchanged at just under 2.62 million head as was local abattoir throughput at around 25,000 head. The drop in overall disposals reflects a slow down in live exports to Northern Ireland, which are estimated to have eased by eight per cent to 480,000 head. This reflects the relatively tight supply situation in Ireland and the improved prices available.
Irish Pig Disposals, 2006 Vs 2005 (‘000 head) TOTAL - Export Meat Plants
2005
2006(e)
% Change
3,163
3,124
-1.3
2,618
2,619
0.0
520
480
-8.0
25
25
0.0
- Live Exports - Local Abattoirs
Distribution of Irish Pigmeat Production The volume of Irish pigmeat production in 2006 is estimated to have shown a modest rise in 2006 to 206,000 tonnes cwe. Overall production was boosted by an increased number of sows and boars being processed, which increased the volume of pigmeat produced as little change was reported in average carcase weights of finished pigs. Within this figure, export approved plants continue to account for 99 per cent of the total at 204,000 tonnes with around 2,000 tonnes produced at local abattoirs.
Irish Pigmeat Production, 2000 to 2006 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
Irish pigmeat imports slowed down during 2006, with a drop of almost 10 per cent estimated for the year at 53,000 tonnes cwe. This reflects a stronger market demand for pigmeat across Europe, which reduced export levels by some key suppliers to Ireland in recent years. A
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
17
considerable proportion of imports coming into Ireland continue to be destined for further processing and eventual re-export as part of a final product. When imports are combined with domestic availability it leaves almost 260,000 tonnes cwe of pigmeat available either for domestic consumption or export. This represents a fall of just under two per cent on 2005 levels with a slight rise in meat plant production being offset by lower import volumes. Irish pigmeat consumption performed well throughout 2006, helped by a solid demand for bacon in particular, with pork sales also holding well. There continues to be a shift in sales toward more value added and convenience options. When foodservice and sales of processed pigmeat are taken into account, total Irish pigmeat consumption for 2006 is estimated at almost 150,000 tonnes cwe. Given the stable domestic consumption situation, and the slightly lower overall availability, the volume of pigmeat available for export is estimated to have declined by over three per cent to 109,000 tonnes cwe.
Distribution of Irish Pigmeat Production, 2006 (e) – Tonnes cwe Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
204,000t
2,000t
Total Production 206,000t
Pigmeat Imports 53,000t
Total Pigmeat Availability 259,000t
Exports
Consumption
109,000t
150,000t
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
18
Irish Pigmeat Exports 5% higher at €250m The value of Irish pigmeat exports during 2006 is estimated to have increased by five per cent to €250 million, helped by an improved EU market for pigmeat, which boosted returns. Relatively tight EU supplies helped Irish exports to all major EU markets. Trade to International markets was largely maintained. The UK remains the principal destination for Irish pigmeat although exports are estimated to have fallen by five per cent in 2006 to 51,000 tonnes cwe. Having started the year slowly, strengthening demand on the Continent as the year progressed tightened supplies on the UK market, which boosted trade levels from the late spring to autumn period. In terms of Continental EU markets, Germany continues to be the main market with shipments of 14,000 tonnes cwe in 2006. German production increased strongly during 2006. However, the hot summer combined with the World Cup boosted pigmeat sales, which helped maintain Irish exports. Other important Continental markets for Irish pigmeat in 2006 included France at 6,000 tonnes, helped by increased sales of manufacturing product, and Italy at 3,000 tonnes. Exports to International markets were largely maintained during 2006 at 26,000 tonnes cwe. Japan continued to be the key market with exports for the year holding reasonably well at 12,000 tonnes cwe despite high stock levels on the market for much of the year. Trade to Russia improved strongly reflecting reduced competition from Brazil with exports anticipated to reach almost 8,000 tonnes cwe for the year. Exports to Hong Kong were maintained while shipments to the United States slowed.
Irish Pigmeat Exports, 2006 Vs 2005 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 2005
2006(e)
% Change
113
109
-3
- United Kingdom
54
51
-5
- Other EU
33
32
-3
- International Markets
26
26
n/c
TOTAL
(e) 2006 figure estimated
Irish Pig Prices increase by 7% Improved market demand combined with relatively tight pig supplies resulted in Irish grade ‘E’ pig prices rising by over seven per cent in 2006 to €1.40/kg dw excl. VAT. This left Irish prices at 96 per cent of the EU average, which compares favourably with 94 per cent in 2005. Towards the end of the year, Irish prices surpassed the EU average for a number of weeks as the EU trade was disrupted by blue tongue restrictions in key markets combined with relatively tight supplies in Ireland.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
19
Irish Grade ‘E’ Pig Prices, 2006 Vs 2005 (€/kg dw excl. VAT) 1.8
1.6
2006 2005
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Outlook for 2007 Little change is expected in Irish pig supplies in 2007, reflecting a stable breeding herd. Meat plant supplies look set to be maintained at around 2.6 million head. Only minor changes are expected in EU pigmeat production and consumption while increased trade is expected with Bulgaria and Romania following their accession to the EU. However, pigmeat is likely to face renewed pressure from poultry as it regains market share. Also, any further strengthening of the euro against the US dollar would reduce the competitiveness of EU pigmeat on world markets as would a return to full market access for Brazilian pigmeat in Russia. Given this background, this may lead to a more competitive market environment for Irish pigmeat. The prospects of higher feed prices as the year progresses will lead to higher production costs at producer level with the nitrates directive also likely to impact on costs from the second half of 2007. The UK market looks set to remain competitive given the rise in supplies likely from suppliers such as France and Spain. Trade to International markets is also likely to slow reflecting increased competition from the United States, Canada and Brazil. Demand on the domestic market looks set to remain reasonably steady at around 150,000 tonnes.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Pigmeat
20
Sheep and Sheepmeat Disposals Total Irish sheep disposals in 2006 at 3.58 million head were over three per cent lower than 2005 levels reflecting a drop of four per cent in export meat plant supplies. This fall more than offset reasonably steady local abattoir supplies and live exports.
Irish Sheep Disposals, 2006 vs 2005 (‘000 head) 2005
2006(e)
% Change
TOTAL
3,705
3,578
-3.4
- Export Meat Plants
3,280
3,148
-4.0
95
100
+5.3
330
330
0
- Live Exports - Local Abattoirs
Lamb supplies at export meat plants were higher than expected during 2006 given the sharp fall in the breeding ewe flock throughout 2005. Throughput was helped by an increased level of ewe lamb/ewe hogget disposals. However, this will impact on supply levels from 2007 as these animals traditionally would have gone for breeding. Lamb supplies showed a modest rise for much of the year before easing back during the autumn months. Ewe supplies at export meat plants eased by 60,000 head or 12 per cent during 2006 to 455,000 head. This followed the strong disposals evident in 2005 and may indicate the first signs of stabilisation in the breeding flock with less productive animals now culled. Local abattoir supplies remained at around 330,000 head while live exports were marginally higher at 100,000 head, helped by a good ewe trade to Britain and lamb exports to Northern Ireland.
Monthly Lamb Supplies at Export Meat Plants, 2004 to 2006 (head) 350,000
2004
300,000
2005 2006
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sheepmeat
21
Distribution of Irish Sheepmeat Production The drop in export meat plant supplies combined with little change in average carcase weights led to overall sheepmeat production in 2006 falling to an estimated 71,500 tonnes cwe. This represents a drop of almost five per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. Within this, export meat plants accounted for around 90 per cent of the total with some 7,000 tonnes produced at local abattoirs. Imports of sheepmeat to Ireland showed little change during 2006 and for the year are estimated to have reached 3,000 tonnes. Within this figure, two thirds comes from the UK with 20 per cent from New Zealand. The majority of imports are made up of frozen mutton destined for the processing sector to manufacture burgers or ready meals for home or export markets. When added to Irish production it results in overall sheepmeat availability in 2006 of some 74,500 tonnes cwe. Sheepmeat consumption performed well throughout 2006 with the domestic market helping to support the trade throughout the year and continues to represent almost 30 per cent of total output. Its importance will increase further as overall production declines. For the year, sheepmeat consumption is estimated at 20,500 tonnes, representing a rise of almost three per cent. This leaves consumption at 4.8kg per capita. Allowing for the strong consumption performance on the domestic market combined with lower supplies, Irish sheepmeat exports in 2006 are estimated to have declined by seven per cent to 54,000 tonnes.
Distribution of Irish Sheepmeat Production 2006(e) – Tonnes cwe Export Meat Plants
Local Abattoirs
64,700t
6,800t
Total Production 71,500t
Sheepmeat Imports 3,000t
Total Sheepmeat Availability 74,500t
Exports
Consumption
54,000t
20,500t
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Sheepmeat
22
Sheepmeat Exports valued at €180m The value of Irish sheepmeat exports in 2006 is estimated to have fallen by five per cent to around €180 million. This drop in value reflects a seven per cent decline in export volumes, which was only partially offset by a modest rise in market returns.
France accounts for 58% of exports Exports to France are estimated to have reached 31,500 tonnes during 2006, a drop of seven per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. The French market was characterised by a sluggish market demand and reasonably strong supply levels from the UK in particular but also a more consistent presence from other exporters such as Spain, New Zealand, Australia and to a lesser extent Bulgaria. These factors made the trade competitive throughout the year. Nonetheless, France remained the principal market for Irish lamb, accounting for 58 per cent of the total.
Shipments to UK reflect lower ewe supplies The drop in cull ewe supplies in 2006 impacted on export volumes to the UK with shipments for the year estimated at 12,500 tonnes, down by over 10 per cent on year earlier levels. There continues to be a strong ethnic demand for Irish mutton in the UK while some rise in lamb exports was also reported, albeit from a small base.
Exports to Northern Europe rise by over 20% Further growth was recorded in exports to Northern Europe with shipments reaching 3,700 tonnes. Sweden accounts for two thirds of exports while volumes to Denmark and Holland also increased.
Slower hill lamb trade The volume of Irish hill lamb exported to the Mediterranean eased back in 2006 to around 2,000 tonnes. This reflects increased domestic supplies in key markets such as Spain and Portugal. Also, the quality of lambs coming off the hills in Ireland improved making them more suitable for other markets with an increasing number kept as stores over the winter months.
Irish Sheepmeat Exports 2006 vs. 2005 (tonnes cwe) 35,000
2005
30,000
2006(e)
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 France
Sectoral Review & Outlook
UK
Ger.
Med.
Scan.
Others
Sheepmeat
23
Sheepmeat Cutting Trade figures available from the CSO show that during the first eight months of 2006 there was 10,600 tonnes of sheepmeat exports in cut /deboned form. This represents 29 per cent of total exports during the period. This compares to 13 per cent as recently as 2000. While a high proportion is mutton, there are increasing volumes of lamb also being exported. This trend is assisted by the move of the larger Irish supermarket chains towards centrally packed lamb sales. The export of cuts is thus facilitated by major processors increasingly supplying lamb cuts for supermarket promotions.
Proportion of Irish Sheepmeat Exports in cut form, 2000 to 2006 (%) 30 25
28
2004
2005
29
23
20 18
15 10
27
13
12
5 0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2006(e)
Lamb Prices Irish lamb prices increased by around two per cent during 2006 to average €3.45/kg dw excl. VAT. The sluggish nature of the French market for much of the year combined with ongoing low returns for lamb skins and edible offal reduced the potential for any further price increase. Prices started the year slowly reflecting a slow demand in France combined with higher than expected UK supplies. As a result, prices remained below corresponding 2005 levels until April. Thereafter, prices remained at least similar to year earlier levels with the strongest prices evident during the April/May period.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Sheepmeat
24
Irish Lamb Prices, 2006 vs 2005 (€/kg dw excl. VAT) 5.00 4.50 2006
4.00 3.50
2005
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Outlook for 2007 Irish sheep availability is expected to decline by up to eight per cent in 2007 reflecting strong ewe lamb disposals since the introduction of decoupled payments. This will impact on lamb supplies over the coming years. Cull ewe supplies are also expected to moderate further in 2007. Exports are expected to decline in line with supplies. The European sheepmeat market looks set to remain steady with production levels likely to fall at a slightly faster rate than consumption in key markets. France will continue to remain the key market with their import requirements likely to be maintained in 2007. Sales to Northern European markets look set to continue strongly helped by a further rise in the proportion of exports in cut form. New Zealand filled their EU import quota for the first time in three years in 2006. After slowing in recent years, the volume of chilled New Zealand sheepmeat exports to the EU increased by almost 30 per cent during the year. Volumes are expected to remain strong in 2007. The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU will boost sheepmeat availability although both these markets were already actively trading with the EU, particularly in live lambs.
Sectoral Review & Outlook
Sheepmeat
25
Market Performance
Ireland Irish Meat Consumption, 2004 – 2006 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 2004
2005
2006(e)
86
86
86
149
150
150
20
20
20.5
Beef Pigmeat Sheepmeat Source: Bord Bia Estimates
Beef Market Demand Steady Little change was evident in Irish beef consumption in 2006 with sales holding firm at both retail and foodservice level. Overall, for the year consumption is estimated to have stood at 86,000 tonnes, broadly in line with 2005 levels. Retail sales continue to account for almost 75 per cent of the total at around 65,000 tonnes cwe. On a per capita basis, beef stands at just over 20kg with a slight levelling off evident over recent years.
Irish Beef Consumption, 2000 - 2006 (‘000 tonnes cwe) 90 86 86
86
2004
2005
86
84
82 78 78 76
74
77
70 66 2000
2001
2002
2003
2006(e)
The ongoing developments evident in the retail meat market in Ireland in terms of centrally packed meat have led to export approved plants accounting for a higher proportion of domestic
Market Performance
26
consumption. During 2006, it is estimated that export plants supplied 63 per cent of domestic consumption. This compares to 52 per cent as recently as 2000. Local abattoirs account for less than a quarter while imports represent around 12 per cent of the total. Consumer demand for beef looks set to remain firm in 2007. In terms of Bord Bia activities, a promotional campaign to reinforce the introduction of the beef labelling legislation and encourage consumers to support Feile Bia establishments already displaying country of origin took place in July. This involved a two week national radio campaign. As part of Bord Bia’s presence at the National & World Ploughing Championships, which included a steak bar and details on Feile Bia and its participants, a week long national promotional campaign was rolled out. In addition, a Pre-Christmas campaign involving a two week national promotion took place from 6th - 20th November. The objective was to encourage customers to choose approved Feile Bia establishments when booking Christmas events. These campaigns were supported by: -
National press advertising
-
Outdoor campaign
-
National and local radio advertising
-
Information leaflets at the Ploughing Championships
Consumer research carried out by Bord Bia in 2006 shows an increasing consumer recognition of the Feile Bia sign, with 49% of respondents claiming to recall it, which compares to 25% in 2003. Also 57% of respondents said they would be much more likely to use a Feile Bia establishment compared to other outlets. These positive results show that Irish consumer are building a stronger awareness and understanding of the Feile Bia scheme.
Feile Bia campaign to encourage customers to choose approved Feile Bia establishments when booking Christmas events
Market Performance
27
Lamb Positive Trends Continue on Irish Market The Irish market accounts for thirty per cent of sheepmeat output, making it the second most significant market, after France. Demand for lamb on the Irish market performed well throughout 2006, with a rise of over three per cent estimated for the year at 20,500 tonnes. This reflects a strong trade at both retail and foodservice level, where new recipe ideas are increasingly evident on menus. This trend looks set to continue in 2007, although competition from other meats, particularly poultry is likely to be stronger. Nonetheless, the Irish market will continue to represent a key market for the Irish sheepmeat sector. The principal aim of Bord Bia lamb activities on the home market during 2006 was to position lamb as a high quality and versatile meal option through a combination of TV & radio advertising, in-store activities and press campaigns. Some of the principal programmes that took place included: New Season Lamb - To highlight the arrival of new season lamb, a national radio campaign and PR activities were initiated to coincide with the May bank holiday weekend. National Lamb Campaign – Towards the end of May, a four week TV campaign aimed at increasing consumer awareness of the eating quality and versatility of lamb for everyday mealtimes took place. This was supported by two weeks of radio advertising and outdoor advertising later in the year. A new recipe leaflet illustrating the versatility of the different lamb cuts for everyday meals was developed for distribution in supermarkets and butchers nationwide. Bord Bia's Regional Food Advisors also undertook a series of nationwide cookery demonstrations involving these new lamb recipe ideas at food shows, butchers' evenings and for parents of school going children.
Recipe leaflet campaign highlighting the versatility of different lamb cuts.
Market Performance
28
Pigmeat Pigmeat sales maintained Irish pigmeat consumption performed well during 2006 with consumption remaining at 150,000 tonnes cwe. This leaves the Irish market still accounting for almost 50 per cent of total Irish output, making it by far the most important market for Irish pork. Import penetration is estimated to have eased during the year with a 10 per cent drop recorded in pigmeat import volumes. The principal growth areas within the market are processed products and bacon, as convenience is the significant driver of demand. The outlook for 2007 remains broadly positive with convenience demand continuing to drive the market with fresh meat sales showing less change. The aim of Bord Bia’s pork and bacon activities throughout 2006 was to build consumer awareness and understanding of the Quality Mark on pork and bacon products and increase consumers’ knowledge of ways of cooking these products as part of everyday meals. The main initiative undertaken during the year was a three week national campaign from mid November promoting pork and bacon with the quality mark. The campaign encompassed national TV advertising, outdoor posters, in-store activities, recipe leaflets and a PR programme.
National campaign promoting pork and bacon with the quality mark.
Market Performance
29
United Kingdom Summary - Irish Meat Exports to United Kingdom, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
260
250
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
14
12.5
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
54
51
Beef (‘000t cwe)
Beef The UK beef industry experienced significant changes in 2006, with both the supply and trading environment changing considerably. The return of UK over thirty month beef to the food chain led to a gradual build up of cow supplies as the year progressed, reaching 12,000 head per week in the latter stages of 2006. This seasonal supply effect increased the availability of manufacturing beef significantly, and while there was solid demand for such product, there was a definite damping effect on both prices for cows and manufacturing beef during the last quarter. The other major change to the industry was the resumption of exports of British beef following the ending of the export ban in May. While initial expectations were quite positive, the reality was that volumes built slowly during 2006. By the end of the year steady, albeit small, supplies of British beef were being shipped to markets such as France, Northern Europe and Greece. The overall UK domestic market was affected by both changes. UK beef production is estimated to have increased by over 100,000 tonnes in 2006. However, the impact of cow beef on Irish imports was minimised by the decline in the availability of chilled steak cuts from South America, which were very evident in 2005. Increased interest and returns from the foodservice sector in particular were experienced, as the sector was most affected by the restricted trade. While chilled steak cuts declined from both Brazil and Argentina, larger volumes of frozen product entered the market for further processing. Market Position of Irish Beef An estimated 250,000 tonnes of Irish beef was imported into the UK in 2006, just 10,000 tonnes below 2005 levels. This trade is estimated to have been valued at more than €750 million. This was higher than originally anticipated as the slower uptake of over thirty month beef by the retail sector, coupled with slow build up of cow supplies and restricted South American availability meant that the demand for Irish beef held firm for much of the year. However, trade slowed towards the end of the year reflecting increased UK supplies.
Market Performance
30
The continued development of consumer awareness of Irish Beef was to the fore of all activities undertaken by Bord Bia in 2006. Working closely with the key multiple retailers including Asda, Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Somerfield, Co-op, Iceland, Aldi and Lidl, Bord Bia used a range of promotional activities to boost demand for Irish beef.
Irish Beef Recipe Calendar giveaway as part of autumn beef promotion in UK
Outlook for 2007 Looking forward to 2007, the marketing environment for Irish beef in the UK appears to be positive. UK domestic prime supplies are forecast to decline by 110,000 head (-5%), and while there may be some more cow beef incorporated into UK retail offers, it is unlikely to be very large. Therefore further prime beef supplies will be required. The other major factor, which is less sure, is the return to normal trading patterns for South American product. Any resumption of normal Brazilian product availability could potentially undermine the all important steak trade, which would impact on market returns for Irish beef. Continued emphasis from Bord Bia will be on promoting the quality standards which Irish Beef conforms to and its ability to meet the requirements of the key retail and wholesale operators.
Pigmeat The UK pigmeat market experienced a mixed year in 2006. Demand in the early part of the year was sluggish. However, strong continental demand as result of avian influenza, tightened supplies and led to improved prices as the spring progressed. This good trade continued over the summer period before easing seasonally throughout the autumn. Reflecting the interest from the continent and international markets, Irish exports to the UK are estimated to have eased by five per cent to 51,000 tonnes. While the market itself remained largely competitive, and further interest from the Spanish and French was seen in the latter stages of the year, overall returns were largely maintained. The trade was estimated to have been worth around over €120 million during the year.
Market Performance
31
Outlook for 2007 The market prospects for Irish pigmeat during 2007 appear reasonably positive. Overall consumption of pork in the UK has grown by three per cent in volume over the last year and retained a 73 per cent household penetration level. While bacon on the other hand has declined by around two per cent in volume sales, it has retained a 92 per cent penetration of UK households. While the UK are forecasting a rise in domestic production, declines in Denmark, Spain and France are forecast for the initial stages of 2007 at least, which should limit supplies on the market.
Sheepmeat The UK market for lamb and mutton was well supplied in 2006. Stronger than anticipated lamb supplies impacted on lamb prices. Cull ewe supplies remained strong for much of the year before falling off in the last quarter. Irish exports to the market in 2006 are estimated to have eased back, reflecting lower availability, to around 12,500 tonnes. The primary product shipped from Ireland to the UK remains mutton destined for the ethnic market. The Muslim population in the UK now accounts for around 3 per cent of the population and is estimated to consume 80-85 per cent of mutton on the market.
Outlook for 2007 Overall, UK lamb and ewe supplies are expected to tighten significantly in 2007, following the contraction of the breeding flock over recent years. Lamb supplies are forecast to fall by five per cent with cull ewe disposals dropping by as much as 20 per cent. This should offer increased demand from the growing ethnic market. Also the development of the Mutton Renaissance Club which was launched in 2006 to develop the understanding and use of mutton in foodservice is expected to highlight the meat further.
France Summary - Irish Meat Exports to France, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe) Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe) Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
Market Performance
2005
2006(e)
44
52
33.7
31.5
3
6
32
Beef Lower French beef production boosted beef imports on the market during 2006. For the year as a whole, French beef imports are estimated to have increased by almost five per cent or 18,000 tonnes. Most of the growth in imports was evident in boneless imports from Ireland, Germany and Holland. For the year, Irish beef exports to France are estimated to have increased by almost 20 per cent to 52,000 tonnes. This trade was valued at €140 million. Ireland was the only country to experience double-digit growth in shipments to the market and remains France’s 4th largest beef supplier, marginally behind Spain. Market Position of Irish Beef The volumes of Irish beef being sold direct to French retailers grew further in 2006 with an estimated 4,000 tonnes sold directly while another 20,000 tonnes is estimated to be sold indirectly. The foodservice sector remains important with up 40 per cent of total shipments destined for this market segment. Around 15 per cent of shipments are destined for further manufacturing.
Key Bord Bia Activities during 2006 Some of the principal Bord Bia activities in relation to beef on the French market throughout 2006 included: Chefs’ Irish Beef Club - A workshop to introduce Irish Hereford Beef to some of Paris’ most prestigious chefs was hosted in January. In November five new members were welcomed to the club. The Club now boasts its first 3 star Michelin chef. In December, a second workshop event took place with a theme of Christmas dishes to recruit new member chefs in 2007. Autumn Beef Campaign - For the second consecutive year, an Autumn Beef Campaign was conducted from the middle of October until the end of December in over 300 retail outlets with 3 retail groups. The consumer promotion featured an on-pack offer combined with in-store merchandising. In addition, an in-store tasting programme ran in a selection of stores in the east and south-east of France to encourage consumers to taste and buy Irish steer beef. SIAL - SIAL took place from the 22nd to 26th October in Paris with nine Irish companies exhibiting on the meat pavilion. Bord Bia hosted a stand reception on the first two evenings which was attended by key representatives from the French retail, foodservice and meat wholesale sectors. St Patrick’s Day - To celebrate St Patrick’s Day 2006, a branded range of darfresh Irish steer beef products was on offer in all outlets of a French retail chain for two weeks. During this period, an in-store tasting programme was put in place in a selection of stores with a consumer competition to win a trip to Ireland or one of 5,000 Irish beef aprons. Foodservice - Bord Bia supported the launch of a new range of Irish beef to the restaurant sector in the spring with two of France’s leading food service distributors whom together have an
Market Performance
33
overall client base of 110,000. The launch was supported by a marketing campaign targeting their 1,200 telesales personnel and included catalogues highlighting the quality of Irish beef.
St. Patrick’s Day Irish Meat Retail Promotion
Outlook for 2007 The prospects for Irish beef on the French market remain broadly positive for 2007. While French beef production looks set to rise somewhat, lower supplies available from other import suppliers should provide further opportunities for Irish exporters. However, lower Irish beef exports may result in any growth to the market being modest. French cattle prices look set to remain firm with a further slight rise anticipated. Irish beef remains competitive relative to french beef but over the last year has been less competitive against other imported suppliers. If this trend continues it could impact to some extent on the level of exports in 2007.
Lamb The French lamb market remained competitive throughout 2006 with a sluggish consumer demand impacting on Irish exports despite lower French supplies. Sheepmeat imports for the year are estimated to have declined by around three per cent to less than 140,000 tonnes. Reduced shipments from the UK, Ireland and South America were offset by increased supplies of fresh product particularly from Spain with New Zealand chilled lamb up slightly in contrast to frozen, which showed a sharp decline.
Market Performance
34
The market environment combined with lower Irish supplies led to the volume of Irish exports to France falling by six per cent to an estimated 31,500 tonnes in 2006. These exports were valued at around €112m and leaves France accounting for almost 58 per cent of total exports.
Market Position of Irish Lamb Ireland maintained its position as the second largest supplier to the French market in 2006, ahead of New Zealand. It is estimated that 70 per cent of Irish lamb sold to France is destined for the retail trade with the remaining 30 per cent sold through the wholesale sector.
Key Bord Bia Activities during 2006 The focus of Bord Bia activities was the Sumer lamb campaign, which was launched in midJune and continued until the end of September. The consumer promotion featured an on-pack offer for a reusable ‘eco-shopping bag’ combined with in-store merchandising. In all over 1500 retail outlets participated with some 52,000 shoppers receiving the bag decorated with the Agneau d’Irlande logo. In addition, an in-store tasting programme in a selection of stores in the South East ran during August to early September. Press launches in Paris, Lille and Nice were held to maximise coverage for Irish lamb in both the trade and consumer media. Advertising in the trade media throughout June, July and August gave an extra impetus to the campaign’s success. To measure the impact of the campaign an in-store survey was carried out which recorded the lamb purchases of a total of 3000 shoppers. The survey showed that Irish lamb sales doubled during the promotion.
Launch of Irish lamb promotion in France, which ran from June to September
Market Performance
35
Outlook for 2007 The French market is expected to remain reasonably competitive throughout 2007 with the ongoing presence of the UK and the relative competitiveness of New Zealand lamb likely to impact on the market environment faced by Irish exporters throughout the year. The relative price of lamb is also likely to impact on consumer demand although if a further rise is recorded in beef prices, this may help to offset this factor to some extent. Taking all these factors into account, French sheepmeat consumption is expected to stabilise at best, while lower Irish supplies will reduce export volumes.
The Netherlands Summary - Irish Exports to the Netherlands, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
40
45
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
44
52
Beef Irish beef exports to the Netherlands are estimated to have increased by thirteen per cent during 2006 to reach 45,000 tonnes cwe. These exports are valued at approximately €155 million. The rise in exports represents a growing interest in Irish beef among Dutch retail and foodservice buyers. This comes at a time when UK exports, and in particular Scottish beef, returned to the market after a 10 year absence. A strong demand in the first half of the year helped to maintain a steady export market. Summer 2006 registered some exceptional high temperatures. Whilst initially, bolstering sales of beef cuts for the BBQ sector, the prolonged heat wave created a fatigue factor, resulting in fall off in meat consumption. Demand steadily recovered during the autumn months with the aid of retail promotions. Dutch consumer demand for beef remains steady at around 17.8kg per capita. Dutch consumers are quite discerning with regards to their purchase of meat, ranking quality and price as key influencing factors.
Livestock A shortage of dairy calves on the continent combined with an exceptionally strong veal market in the early part of 2006 created a strong demand on Irish live exports to the Netherlands. As a result, export levels increased by around 20 per cent to 52,000 head. Trade slowed as the year progressed reflecting a slower overall market demand and a gradual rise in the level of UK calf exports.
Market Performance
36
Key Bord Bia Activities during 2006 It is estimated that 80% of Irish beef exports are destined for the retail channel with the balance being absorbed in the foodservice and manufacturing sectors. Bord Bia activities in the Netherlands in 2006 focused on developing the image and overall awareness of Irish Beef through PR and promotional events. Some of the principal activities undertaken included: Launch of www.irishbef.nl - The launch of a dedicated website for Irish beef created a new and added dimension to Bord Bia’s promotions in the Dutch market. With a key objective of driving overall awareness of Irish Beef and providing consumers with a ‘one-stop-shop’ of information, the website integrates all elements of our promotional resources and activities. Autumn Beef Promotion Campaign – This campaign continues to be the main driving vehicle behind consumer promotions. The campaign in 2006 commenced in early October and concluded in late December. With the combined market share of 45% of the Dutch retail market, a total of 6 retail chains participated in this year’s campaign. Over one million promotional labels were used on packs of Irish beef in over 1200 participating stores nationwide. Attracting a total of 170,000 entries for an Irish Beef giveaway, the Autumn Beef promotion continues to strike an interest amongst the Dutch consumer. This year, consumers had the chance to win a free Dutch Recipe Calendar or a Magnetic Memory board. Both items provide Irish beef with year round visibility in Dutch homes. On pack country of Origin - An emerging and noticeable trend towards to the promotion of the country of origin of Irish beef became evident on the shelves of Dutch retailers during 2006. Albert Heijn’s Greenfield’s brand which is exclusively Irish product, piloted the launch of new Greenfield’s packaging which carries the Irish beef logo. Other retail chains followed a similar route in promoting the Irish identify. Chef’s Irish Beef Club - Building product reputation and improving the positioning of Irish beef remains a key driving force behind the Chef’s Irish Beef Club in the Netherlands. With a total of thirteen member chefs; representing some of the most elite Michelin star holders in the Netherlands, the club continues to grow from strength to strength.
Chef’s Irish Beef Club promotion in the Netherlands
Market Performance
37
Outlook for 2007 Export volumes of Irish beef are expected to show little change in 2007. A growing interest from Dutch retailers in promoting the Irish country of origin is encouraging and augers well for the positioning of Irish Beef as a premium branded product. Nonetheless, a number of underlying factors such as; retail price competition, increasing presence of UK beef and a possible return of full South American supplies to the EU market will influence market dynamics. The live trade is expected to be more competitive as UK calf exports are anticipated to grow strongly while overall import demand eases to more historical levels.
Italy Summary - Irish Exports to Italy, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
42
51
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
47
67
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
3
3
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
1
1
Beef Irish beef exports to Italy are estimated to have increased by over 20 per cent during 2006 to reach 51,000 tonnes cwe. This trade is valued at €220m. The Italian beef and veal market was particularly buoyant during the first eight months of 2006 due largely to the outbreak of avian flu in Italy which caused a noticeable shift in demand away from poultry towards other meats. During the latter months of the year the market weakened somewhat as heavier supplies of competitively priced beef tended to push down prices. Export volumes from Ireland were back a little during that period but overall held up well for the year as a whole. Italian beef consumption showed a modest rise during the year. Total beef imports were up by an estimated four per cent with France, Germany and Poland remaining the other key suppliers. Imports from Brazil were up marginally albeit from a relatively low base. Supplies from the UK returned onto the market following the removal of export restrictions earlier in the year.
Market Performance
38
Market Position of Irish Beef Irish beef is now well established in Italy at the premium retail end of the market. It is estimated that around 80 per cent of beef sales go to retail while the balance largely goes into the catering sector. Irish beef has a good reputation in the marketplace and is recognised as a quality product that has adapted well to Italian consumer tastes. The continuing growth in sales has tended to take place with the larger retail chains, who are growing their share of the market at the expense of the traditional butcher sector. Irish suppliers tend to have good business relationships with key customers which will help to secure Ireland’s market position over the coming years. Bord Bia’s promotional activities in Italy during 2006 focused mainly on increasing awareness of Irish beef through PR and promotional campaigns. Promotions were carried out during the year with eight of the top retail chains. These promotions involved consumer advertising, in store point of sale materials, and merchandising of the product where appropriate.
Retail promotion of Irish beef in Italy
Outlook for 2007 Italy is a major beef consuming country with annual per capita consumption of over 24kg. Despite difficult economic conditions consumption has remained stable in recent years and no immediate decline in consumption is foreseen. This, combined with lower domestic production suggests a relatively buoyant market in 2007. However the boost given to the trade in early 2006 arising from the avian flu outbreak is unlikely to be repeated in 2007. Accordingly the
Market Performance
39
market in the first half of 2007 is likely to revert to more normal patterns. Beef sales from Ireland are expected to rise although at a lower rate than in 2006.
Live Cattle Irish live cattle exports to Italy increased by over 40 per cent or 20,000 during 2006 to reach 67,000 head. The value of livestock exports is estimated to have exceeded €45m. Most of the growth in exports took place in top quality autumn 2005 born weanlings. The live cattle trade also benefited from the buoyant beef trade during the earlier part of the year. However the trade weakened in the latter part of the year as heavier supplies of competitively priced beef and livestock came onto the market. Overall for the year, total Italian live imports are estimated at 1.4 m head, up marginally on the previous year. The main supplier on the Italian market is France with estimated live exports to Italy in 2006 of 1.1m head. As the genetic quality of the herd improves, Irish stores and weanlings are becoming increasingly suitable for the Italian feedlots. In addition Irish livestock exporters have forged strong business partnerships with key Italian importers which should secure the market position for live cattle exports over the coming years. Overall, the outlook for 2007 remains positive with further growth in exports anticipated.
Sheepmeat Irish exports of sheepmeat are estimated to have reached 1,000 tonnes in 2006, roughly similar to the previous year’s levels. The Italian sheepmeat market is small by European standards with annual per capita consumption of only 1.5 kg. In 2006, overall sheepmeat consumption is estimated to have reached 89,000 tonnes of which 30,000 tonnes was supplied by imports. The main suppliers remained New Zealand, Spain, France, the UK and Holland. The market is dominated by light lambs with an average carcase weight of around 9 Kg. Irish sheepmeat exports to Italy consist mainly of mountain type lambs and increasingly lamb cuts for the retail sector. Lamb sales are determined by the availability of suitable product at a competitive price. Nevertheless, it remains an important market for lighter mountain type lambs. Italian production and consumption is expected to show little change in 2007 and imports are likely to hold at their previous levels. Competition is the key issue in supplying the Italian market. Higher costs in Ireland and its position on the periphery of Europe make it difficult for Irish suppliers to compete with domestic suppliers and others located nearer the marketplace. The market itself is extremely fragmented making distribution challenging. However, Ireland should be able to maintain its current market position.
Market Performance
40
Pigmeat Irish pigmeat exports to Italy are forecast to have reached 3,000 tonnes in 2006 down marginally on the previous year. These are valued at €6m. Ireland’s share of the import market is currently around three per cent. Irish sales are principally for processing, particularly frozen trimmings and shoulders. In 2006, the pigmeat trade benefited from the shift in demand away from poultry towards pigmeat and other red meats. This trend is unlikely to be evident in 2007. Irish volumes onto the market are likely to remain around their current levels and will depend greatly on the available supplies from other sources.
Sweden Summary - Irish Meat Exports to Sweden, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
24
31
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2.0
2.5
The Swedish market for Irish beef improved during 2006 reflecting a rising import requirement on the market and somewhat lower imports from South America during the year. Swedish selfsufficiency remained at less than 60 per cent in 2006 resulting in an import requirement of around 110,000 tonnes. The market continues to rate domestic beef higher than imported product, which can impact on the market position of Irish product. For the year as a whole, export volumes are estimated to have increased by almost 30 per cent to 31,000 tonnes cwe, with a value of €75 million.
Market Position of Irish Beef Over recent years there has been a steady increase in the proportion of exports that consist of higher value steer beef entering the market. On the other hand, the proportion of manufacturing cuts has declined, which highlights the progress being made by Irish beef on the market in terms of building a solid market reputation. This position is demonstrated by the fact that Irish beef now represents 30 per cent of total Swedish imports.
Outlook for 2006 The market prospects for Irish beef in Sweden remain positive for 2007. Domestic beef supplies look like showing little change during the year leading to a stable import requirement. Irish beef is well positioned to maintain its share of overall beef imports. However, the level of restrictions
Market Performance
41
surrounding Brazilian and Argentinian beef is likely to impact on the market environment faced by Irish exporters.
Spain Summary - Irish Exports to Spain, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
14
16
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
50
72
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
0.8
0.2
Beef Irish beef exports to Spain continue to show year on year increases with a further estimated rise of 14 per cent recorded in 2006 to 16,000 tonnes cwe. This trade was worth an estimated €40 million. The higher exports came through increased sales to our four main retail clients, where Ireland is well positioned as a reliable and consistent quality beef supplier. The increased sales through the retail sector were mainly due to the growth in their number of outlets. Irish Beef fills a niche for red meat and primary cuts. Approximately 70 per cent of Irish beef sold to Spain consists of steak cuts, mainly fillets and loins for both the retail and foodservice sectors. While Spanish cattle prices increased strongly during 2006, a good consumer demand for beef was maintained on the market. Bord Bia continues to work closely with Ireland’s main retail customers to position Irish beef as a premium product by encouraging them to identify and promote the product as Irish, and creating a segment that can optimise market returns. New and more exciting ways of promotion at point of sale are being considered and offered to Spanish retail chains in order to achieve this. Consumer focus groups were carried out in 2006 to research consumers’ views on Irish meat and listen to their demands and preferences in terms of beef attributes, qualities, presentation, packaging and promotion.
Livestock Irish live cattle exports to Spain performed strongly again in 2006 with an increase of over 40 per cent or 22,000 recorded to 72,000 head.
Market Performance
42
The improved trade was due to greater availability of Irish cattle, the consolidation of business relationships between Irish exporters and reliable Spanish importers and the widely recognised improvement of the quality and genetics of the Irish livestock. Spanish cattle prices were strong during the year and Ireland has positioned itself as a good alternative to French cattle that tend to be too expensive. The bluetongue outbreaks in several EU countries does not seem to have had a huge impact on the livestock trade to Spain in 2006, but could potentially impact on trade during 2007. The trend towards cheaper, younger and lesser quality cattle, mainly calves from Germany, Holland, Poland, and the Czech Republic continues to present a significant market challenge to the Irish industry. There is also the potential for increased suppliers of UK cattle on the market, although to date this has been slow to materialise. Despite these developments, the outlook for Irish cattle exports to Spain in 2007 remains broadly positive.
Bord Bia market visit to Spanish feedlot
Lamb Irish exports of light lamb to Spain in 2006 fell following a strong pick up in 2005. During 2005, Spanish lamb prices reached record levels due to scarce domestic supplies and bluetongue related movement restrictions. This created increased opportunities for Irish lamb. However, the market returned to more normal patterns in 2006 with increased domestic supplies impacting on import levels. As a result, Irish exports fell to less than 400 tonnes for the year. Looking ahead to 2007, a drop of four per cent in the Spanish breeding flock is expected to impact on domestic production levels. As a result, import demand is likely to rise, which may present some renewed opportunities for Irish lamb.
Market Performance
43
Denmark Summary - Irish Meat Exports to Denmark, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe)
2005
2006(e)
8
8
Similar to developments taking place in Sweden, Danish beef production continues to decline gradually. With consumer demand for beef remaining strong, it has led to a rising import requirement, which in 2006 stood at 100,000 tonnes. Trade remained competitive throughout 2006 with South American supplies holding well, particularly during the second half of the year. The Danish retail market remains very price focussed, with a strong discounter presence in the market leading the demand for cheap product. This makes it difficult for Irish beef to build a premium presence in the market. This segment of the market is currently sourced from South America but also notably from Australia, with Australian beef enjoying a positive reputation. Irish exports continued to struggle on price, which impacted on supplies. For the year as a whole, Irish shipments reached an estimated 8,000 tonnes, which is broadly similar to 2005 levels. Little change is expected on the market in 2007 with domestic production stabilising and leading to stability in Danish beef imports. Irish exports are unlikely to change significantly, although lower overall beef exports may reduce shipments to some extent. Bord Bia will continue to seek out opportunities to develop trade for prime Irish Beef to the Danish market in the year ahead.
Portugal Summary - Irish Exports to Portugal, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe) Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2005
2006(e)
9
11
1.0
1.1
Beef Irish beef exports to Portugal performed extremely well in 2006, showing an increase of around 20 per cent 11,000 tonnes cwe. The bulk of these exports were destined for four of the top five retailers.
Market Performance
44
Irish beef has a very good reputation with Portuguese consumers although the market tends to be quite price competitive. The principal demand on the market is for lean meat, predominantly from young bulls. Irish exports to Portugal comprise of both prime and cow beef with around 90 per cent sold to retail, and mainly consist of forequarter cuts that compete on price with Germany and Holland.
Lamb Irish lamb exports levels to Portugal were largely maintained in 2006 following a drop in 2005. The loss in trade in 2005 was largely a reflection of a lack of suitable lamb in Ireland to serve both Portugal and Spain during the Christmas campaign. The market was price competitive during 2006 with UK lamb on the market selling at prices lower than Ireland for much of the time. Irish product is well received in Portugal’s top multiple retail chains and in the traditional butcher shops, through the larger wholesalers. However, when a price differential emerges they often switch to Welsh & Scottish product. Bord Bia has been very committed to maintaining existing customers for Irish lamb while also seeking ways to develop new outlets. This has involved looking at new ways of marketing the product, securing a more constant demand, obtaining constructive feedback of the market needs and bringing relevant companies and buyers to Ireland to see at first hand the quality of light lamb being produced in Ireland. Bord Bia continues to work with the Irish industry to ensure that Irish production systems are conducive to supplying the type of product required by the Portuguese market and developing value added products.
Belgium Summary - Irish Exports to Belgium, 2005 – 2006
Beef (‘000t cwe) Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2005
2006(e)
5
5
1.5
1.5
Irish beef exports to Belgium were largely maintained during 2006 at an estimated 5,000 tonnes. Exports were valued at around €17m. Trade was helped by lower supplies evident on the market from other suppliers throughout the year, although the market became more competitive as the year progressed. The majority of Irish beef is sold through the wholesale sector with steady volumes going through the multiple retail sector. Irish exports of lamb to Belgium performed well with shipments standing at 1,500 tonnes.
Market Performance
45
Activities in Belgium in 2005 concentrated on consolidating existing retail and foodservice business, while also supporting new business development. For the month of September, Irish lamb was identified on pack in Carrefour retail outlets throughout Belgium. The promotion was supported by an in-store tasting programme in a selection of stores.
Germany Summary - Irish Exports to Germany, 2005 – 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
2.0
4.5
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
16
14
Sheepmeat (‘000t cwe)
2.1
1.8
Beef Irish beef exports to Germany performed well in 2006, more than doubling to 4,500 tonnes. The majority of this was destined for catering wholesalers and retailers. Irish shipments were helped by stable beef consumption and lower imports from South American suppliers, especially Argentina during the year. This helped overcome the challenge presented by a rise of three per cent in German production. Irish beef promotions took place during November and December at 20 Kaufhof stores nationwide, including tastings supported by recipe cards, information flyers and a ‘Free shopper bag with Purchase’ offer. An Irish Beef event was held in Bliss restaurant, Essen in April 2006 to promote Irish beef among several prominent German chefs who were in attendance. Karstadt held a 3 day in-store tasting from 6-8th April. Bord Bia sponsored Irish fillet beef served at Karstadt Nuremburg’s Gourmet Evening which took place on the 21st October 2006.
Outlook for 2007 Rising cattle prices have led to higher retail beef prices as 2006 progressed. If this trend continues throughout 2007 it may negatively impact on German beef consumption, particularly as poultry regains market share. However, lower domestic beef production should boost overall beef imports and with Argentinian exports not expected to increase strongly, there should be further opportunities for Irish beef on the market.
Market Performance
46
Pigmeat Germany remains the most competitive market in the EU for the slaughtering and processing of pigs although not all imports are for consumption in the German market with per capita consumption remaining stagnant at 54.5 kg per annum and rising only marginally as a result of the dry summer and the World Cup. German export volumes increased by 10 per cent in 2006 to 1.25m tonnes. Germany is presently the principal Continental EU market for Irish pigmeat with shipments estimated at 14,000 tonnes cwe in 2006.
Outlook for 2007 There are plans within the German pigmeat sector to increase the domestic pig herd and slaughtering capacity over the next 2 to 5 years. Expansion would mean Germany could process around 10 million more pigs in the medium term. Little change is expected in per capita consumption during 2007. As a result, the German industry is examining opportunities in Eastern Europe particularly the new accession states of Romania and Bulgaria. In terms of Irish exports, little change is anticipated for 2007.
Lamb German sheepmeat production fell in 2006 leading to increasing supplies from New Zealand, Australia and South American exporters. The decline in production coupled with an increase in overall consumption of an estimated eight per cent has caused the self sufficiency rate to drop to 53 per cent. However, per capita consumption remains low relative to other European countries at 1.1kg. Overall, sheepmeat imports are estimated to have increased to 53,000 tonnes in 2006. There is a strong market for mutton through ethnic food service channels. Demand for lamb in Germany is seasonal with consumption peaking at Easter and Christmas. Despite lower domestic production, the German market remained competitive for Irish exporters in 2006 due largely to a stronger presence of New Zealand chilled lamb on the market. For the year, Irish exports are estimated to have fallen by 14 per cent to 1,800 tonnes.
Outlook for 2007 Growing demand for ethnic cuisine in Germany would suggest that there are opportunities to increase mutton sales to the German foodservice sector. Sales of Irish lamb also continue to increase at premium foodservice level.
Market Performance
47
International Markets Irish Exports to International Markets, 2005 - 2006 2005
2006(e)
Beef (‘000t cwe)
37
38
Pigmeat (‘000t cwe)
26
26
Live Cattle (‘000 head)
10
0.5
Exports of Irish beef to International markets are estimated to have reached 38,000 tonnes during 2006, valued at just under €100 million. This represents a rise of three per cent on 2005 levels. This increased trade took place against a backdrop of lower export refunds and an increasingly competitive global beef market. Higher exports to Russia helped offset lower exports to other markets. Live cattle exports were not possible reflecting the absence of export refunds since December 2005. In terms of pigmeat, exports to International markets were largely maintained at 26,000 tonnes. Japan continued to be the key market followed by Russia. Exports to Hong Kong were maintained while shipments to the United States slowed.
Russia Russia remained the principal non-EU market for Irish beef during 2006 with exports reaching 30,000 tonnes. This represented a rise of 11 per cent on corresponding 2005 levels. Pigmeat exports to Russia were increased by a factor of four during 2006 to an estimated 8,000 tonnes cwe. The boost in trade reflects foot and mouth related restrictions placed on a number of key Brazilian states for much of the year. The outlook for 2007 is for Brazil to gradually regain exports to the market making trade more difficult for Irish exporters. However, export levels are expected to remain ahead of 2005 levels.
Japan Japan remained the best-performing International market for Irish pigmeat in 2006 with exports holding reasonably well at 12,000 tonnes cwe. Relatively high stock levels on the market for much of the year slowed trade. However, the limited volumes of US beer on the market have helped maintain demand for pigmeat. The market looks set to remain competitive during 2007, particularly if US and Canadian beef imports increase strongly. However, it will remain a valuable market for higher value pigmeat cuts from Ireland and other EU suppliers.
Market Performance
48
Global & EU Market Prospects Global trade in beef and pigmeat is expected to increase further in 2007 while trade in sheepmeat looks set to ease slightly. Trade levels are likely to be assisted by the following factors: A reduced level of concern regarding Avian Influenza Recovering US and Canadian beef exports following BSE restrictions in recent years Drought induced export growth from Australia, and Increased South American meat exports despite ongoing foot and mouth concerns.
Cattle and Beef The volume of beef produced by the world’s leading countries is anticipated by the USDA to increase by just over two per cent in 2007 to 54.7 million tonnes. This growth will be driven largely by higher production in China, Brazil and the United States, which together will account for almost 80 per cent of the anticipated growth. Increased production is also expected in India, Australia and Argentina. Rising beef demand reflecting growing disposable income levels is boosting production levels in both China and Brazil while improving profitability is the main factor boosting US production levels.
Global Beef Production Trends, 2007 Vs 2006
EU (15%) -1%
US (22%) +2%
China (14%) +6% India (5%) +5% Brazil (17%) +3%
Argentina (6%) +2%
Global & EU Market Prospects
Australia (4%) +7%
49
Beef Exports to rise by 7% The volume of beef exports by the world’s leading exporters looks set to increase by around seven per cent in 2007 to an estimated 7.5 million tonnes according to the USDA. This forecast is based on the assumption that the trading status of all exporting countries remains unchanged from the position of late 2006. The main driver behind this growth is an anticipated recovery of 30 per cent in US beef exports to 680,000 tonnes. This reflects the increased level of shipments expected to Asia in particular following BSE related trade restrictions over recent years. Other countries likely to have higher beef export availability throughout 2007 include Australia where ongoing drought problems are expected to boost production levels. As a result, exports are forecast to rise by over five per cent to almost 1.5 million tonnes. The level of Brazilian beef exports are forecast to rise by two per cent to almost two million tonnes with a strong domestic demand preventing any further rise. Argentina is also expected to show some recovery in export volumes, although much will depend on the government restrictions placed on beef exports. India continues to grow its export business with a further rise of seven per cent anticipated for 2007 bringing their annual exports to 800,000 tonnes.
Global Beef Exports, 2005 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 2,000
2005 2006(f)
1,500
2007(p)
1,000
500
Brazil
India
Argentina
Uruguay
EU
All major importers to increase trade in 2007 The United States will remain the world’s largest importer of beef in 2007 with a rise of six per cent forecast at 1.52 million tonnes. A stronger domestic demand combined with higher export volumes are expected to boost import levels. Having fallen during 2006 due to lower beef availability, Russian beef imports are forecast to recover by eight per cent in 2007 to over 900,000 tonnes with Brazil expected to increase shipments once more.
Global & EU Market Prospects
50
The return of US beef and the ongoing strong Australian exports to the market are forecast to boost Japan’s imports by as much as 10 per cent to 765,000 tonnes. Having seen lower imports in 2006 due principally to a disrupted South American supply, EU-25 imports of beef are forecast to rise by four per cent in 2007 to 560,000 tonnes. Towards the end of 2006 there were increasing signs that imports from Brazil were growing and this trend looks set to continue this year. However, the proportion of shipments in chilled form remains lower than in recent years, which reduces the direct pressure on EU producers.
Prospects for EU Beef Market A modest fall is anticipated in EU-25 beef production for 2007 reflecting lower supplies in Ireland, reduced prime cattle throughput in the UK and a drop in German supplies. However, when Romania and Bulgaria are added, overall EU-27 production is anticipated to reach 8.1 million tonnes, which represents a rise of 200,000 tonnes on the EU-25 levels of 2006. Consumption levels across the EU looks set to remain steady during 2007 despite relatively strong retail prices for beef. The accession of Romania and Bulgaria will boost overall consumption levels by 350,000 tonnes. This will leave consumption on an EU-27 basis standing at almost 8.6 million tonnes. These trends suggest that the size of the beef shortfall on the EU market looks set to increase from just over 300,000 tonnes in 2006 to in excess of 400,000 tonnes in 2007.
EU Beef Market Balance, 2000 – 2007 (‘000t cwe) EU-15
EU-25
EU-27
9,000 8,500
Consumption 8,000
Production 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 2000
2001
2002
Global & EU Market Prospects
2003
2004
2005
2006(f)
2007(p)
51
Imports boosted by New Member States The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU from January 2007 has boosted the overall EU import requirement by some 90,000 tonnes. Bulgaria imported around 60,000 tonnes in 2006 with over three quarters of this originating in Brazil. The fact that Brazil will now have to supply this market under EU requirements is likely to limit their shipments to some extent. Looking at the EU-25, import levels look set to increase somewhat following the reduction evident in 2006. However, two key issues will determine import volumes during the year, namely: The foot and mouth status of Brazilian exports. As of now, the EU veterinary visit planned for March will form the first part of a review of current restrictions that the EU has placed on Brazil. Until the report from that visit is available, it is difficult to determine whether any change is likely. However, even with these restrictions, Brazilian shipments to the EU showed little change in 2006, although the proportion that consisted of chilled cuts fell by almost seven per cent. Any return to full chilled shipments could impact strongly on returns for EU producers. However, little change is expected until early summer at the earliest. Government restrictions on Argentinian exports resulted in a drop of over 20 per cent in exports to the EU. As of now little relaxation is expected on these restrictions. This means that any recovery in Argentinian shipments in 2007 is likely to be modest. Taking these factors into account together with lower supplies anticipated from key EU producers, some recovery is expected in EU imports during 2007. On an EU 27 basis, beef imports are expected to reach just under 600,000 tonnes, which is around three per cent ahead of 2006 imports by the 27 states.
EU Beef Imports, 2000 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 600 500 EU-15
400
EU-25
300
EU-27 200 100 0 2000
2001
2002
Global & EU Market Prospects
2003
2004
2005
2006(f) 2007(p)
52
Within the EU, increased import requirements are anticipated in the UK, Germany and to a lesser extent Italy and the Scandinavian countries. This should provide ongoing opportunities for Irish exports, although volumes are likely to be affected by lower Irish supplies.
EU Exports to ease further While exports during 2006 held up better than expected reflecting a strong Russian demand, particularly in the first half of the year, volumes are expected to fall further in 2007. This reflects the likelihood that Brazil will once again be more active in Russia, lower refund rates making it increasingly difficult to be competitive and an EU demand that looks set to hold firm. Also, the accession of Bulgaria and to a lesser extent Romania may also present better opportunities for forequarter beef than some international markets. Live exports are likely to be largely confined to charity shipments to African and Eastern European countries, although Germany is expected to continue some shipments to the Middle East. Overall, EU-27 beef and live cattle exports are forecast to drop below 200,000 tonnes in 2007.
Cattle Prices EU male cattle prices increased by an estimated eight per cent during 2006 reflecting a solid consumer demand for beef across the EU. The stability in beef supplies should provide a solid platform for cattle prices in 2007. The relative price of beef increased quite strongly in 2006 to 153 per cent of the EU average meat price, which compares with 140 per cent as recently as 2004. This is the highest level evident since the early 1990’s. Any consumer reaction to this trend would impact on cattle prices in 2007. The volume of chilled beef imports on the market will also have a significant influence on cattle prices, particularly during the summer period. However, all things being equal, the prospects for EU cattle prices remain broadly positive.
Pigmeat A further rise of four per cent is anticipated for 2007 in the volume of pigmeat produced by the world’s largest pigmeat suppliers according to the USDA. This would leave production levels standing at 103.4 million tonnes. Within this figure, over three quarters of the growth is being driven by a rise of five per cent in Chinese production. This leaves China accounting for more than half the total at 55.8 million tonnes. Over the last five years, Chinese pigmeat production has increased by almost 30 per cent reflecting rising income levels and ongoing urbanisation evident in the country. Other countries expected to show increased production levels in 2007 include the United States at three per cent, Brazil at five per cent, Russia up six per cent and Vietnam rising by seven per cent.
Global & EU Market Prospects
53
Global Pigmeat Production Trends, 2007 Vs 2006
Canada (2%) -1%
EU (21%) n/c
US (10%) +3%
Russia (2%) +6% China (54%) +5% Vietnam (2%) +7%
Brazil (3%) +5%
Pigmeat Exports to Rise by 3% Higher US and Brazilian pigmeat exports are expected to boost overall export volumes by world’s key pigmeat countries by three per cent to almost 5.3 million tonnes according to the USDA. Exports of pigmeat by the United States are forecast to rise by four per cent to a record level of over 1.4 million tonnes. Export volumes exceed one million tonnes for the first time in 2004. US exports have been helped by the relative weakness of the US dollar, competitive prices and a good global demand for pigmeat helped by BSE and more recently Avian Influenza issues surrounding other meats, which led to Asian countries in particular increasing pigmeat consumption. Russia also continues to be a growth market for US pigmeat. Brazilian pigmeat exports are forecast to reach 570,000 tonnes in 2007 with most of the rise expected to markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and the Ukraine. Shipments to Russia fell by almost 40 per cent in 2006 and while some recovery is anticipated for this year, volumes are likely to remain well below the levels of the recent years. Little change is expected in exports from the EU and Canada, the worlds other major exporting countries.
Global & EU Market Prospects
54
Mixed Trends in Pigmeat Imports In terms of import market trends for 2007, only modest changes are anticipated in key markets. Japanese pigmeat imports are expected to slow marginally as increased beef supplies on the market puts pressure on pigmeat consumption. Russia, Mexico and Hong Kong all anticipate a rise of two per cent in import volumes, which represents a continuation of the trend evident in recent years in these markets. The major decline in import volumes is expected in Korea where a 13 per cent drop is forecast. Similar to Japan this partly reflects increased beef supplies expected on the market and also a recovery poultry demand.
Global Pigmeat Imports, 2005 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 1,500
2005 2006(f) 2007(p)
1,000
500
0 Japan
Russia
Mexico
United States
Hong Kong
Romania
Other
EU Market Prospects for 2007 Little change is anticipated in EU-25 pig supplies in 2007 with a relatively stable breeding herd during the second half of 2006 guiding production levels. Some increase in countries such as Germany, Spain, Poland and the United Kingdom are expected to be largely offset by stable or slightly lower supplies in other EU countries. The accession of Romania and Bulgaria will add almost 600,000 tonnes or three per cent to EU production in 2007. Of the two countries, Romania is the strongest producer at around 450,000 tonnes annually. On an EU-27 basis, overall production for 2007 is anticipated to reach 21.9 million tonnes, which is broadly similar to corresponding 2006 levels. EU Consumer demand for pigmeat was boosted in 2006 by some consumers switching to pigmeat from poultry reflecting uncertainty among some consumers following the outbreaks of Avian Influenza on the Continent. However, poultry demand has been recovering since the
Global & EU Market Prospects
55
second half of 2006 and looks set to recover further in 2007 to just under 21 million tonnes across the EU-27.
EU Pigmeat Production, 2000 to 2007 (‘000 Tonnes cwe) 25,000
20,000 EU-15 15,000
EU-25 EU-27
10,000
5,000
0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(f) 2007(p)
EU Exports to Ease The volume of EU pigmeat export is forecast to ease back in 2007 due to what looks set to be a more competitive global EU market combined with the fact that Romania and Bulgaria have been relatively sizeable markets for EU pigmeat in recent years. With these countries now in the EU, this trade will boost intra EU trade while reducing EU exports. Exports to markets such as Russia and Japan are also expected to slow somewhat, particularly if the euro remains strong against the US dollar. For the year as a whole, EU exports are forecast to drop by over 10 per cent to around 1.1 million tonnes.
Pig Price Trends A more competitive EU and world market for pigmeat as poultry regains market share and higher US & Brazilian supplies are expected to put some pressure on EU pig prices as 2007 progresses. In additional, the threat of rising feed prices is likely to push up production costs while rising energy and environmental compliance costs impact on the processing sector. All of these factors suggest that profitability levels throughout the sector may come under some pressure during 2007. This follows a rise of five per cent in average EU prig prices in 2006 to €1.46/kg dw.
Global & EU Market Prospects
56
Sheepmeat Global Trends Little change is expected in sheepmeat production across the leading global sheepmeat exporters in 2007. Following a small reduction in 2006, New Zealand production looks set to stabilise throughout 2007. In terms of Australia, which has witnessed very strong growth in lamb exports over recent years, much depends on the drought conditions throughout the year. New Zealand’s breeding flock was three per cent higher in July 2006, which helped to offset a lower lambing rate. As a result, lamb supplies are expected to be largely maintained at just under 26 million head for the year ending September 2007. Lamb exports are forecast to show little change although trade will be helped by the relative weakness of the New Zealand dollar against the euro. Hogget and ewe supplies are expected to increase reflecting a poor grass situation over recent months. This will impact on the breeding flock as the year progresses. In terms of Australia, the severe drought conditions evident in many parts of the country are likely to influence sheep supplies during 2007, particularly if current conditions persist. Lamb and ewe supplies were six per cent higher in 2006 as producers increased marketing levels to offset the poor grazing conditions. Some of this rise was offset by lower carcase weights. If rainfall returns to normal it is expected that Australian sheep supplies will fall sharply in 2007 as producers are likely to recommence the flock building evident in the early part of this decade. This will reduce production levels by around four per cent with most of the fall evident in ewe supplies. Lamb disposals are expected to show a marginal decline to around 400,000 tonnes. Australian lamb exports continued their strong growth of recent years in 2006, recording a rise of almost four per cent to 147,000 tonnes pw. The United States remained the key market accounting for almost 25 per cent of the total. Trade to US improved strongly as the year progressed despite a less competitiveness position against the US dollar. Asia continues to grow in importance with higher lamb shipments recorded to Japan while sales to China were largely maintained. Despite a slow start to the year, Australia filled its EU quota of just under 19,000 tonnes in 2006. Lower lamb availability in 2007 is likely to result in lamb exports stabilising.
EU Market Prospects for 2007 The ongoing decline in the EU breeding flock will reduce EU sheepmeat production further in 2007. On an EU-25 basis, production is expected to fall by as much as four per cent leaving the EU producing less than one million tonnes of sheepmeat. When Bulgaria and Romania are added to this figure it boosts overall production by some 96,000 tonnes or 10 per cent leaving EU-27 production at 1.09 million tonnes.
Global & EU Market Prospects
57
The drop in production levels during 2007 are likely to be largely driven by lower UK, French and Irish production levels. The only major producer likely to show any rise is Spain as the sector recovers from drought and bluetongue disruptions of recent years.
EU Sheepmeat Production Trends, 2007 vs. 2006 (% change) 4.0 2.0
3 1
0.0 -2.0
-1 -4
-4.0
-6
-6.0
-8
-8.0 -10.0 EU-27
Ireland
UK
France
Spain
Italy
EU sheepmeat consumption is expected to fall broadly in line with production during 2007 with a four per cent decline anticipated. This would leave consumption across the EU-27 at 1.33 million tonnes. However, consumer demand for lamb seems to be holding reasonably well, which would suggest that there is scope for stabilising consumption levels if adequate supplies were available. However, the relative price of sheepmeat means that it is always going to be expensive compared to most other meats, which reduces the potential for any significant increase.
Increased Imports from New Zealand In 2006 New Zealand fill their annual EU import quota of 227,854 tonnes for the first time in three years. This represented a rise of three per cent on 2005 levels. Within the total, the most significant growth took place in the fresh/chilled area with imports for the first 10 months of 2006 running some 27 per cent ahead of 2005. For the year, imports of fresh chilled sheepmeat are estimated to have increased to almost 45,000 tonnes. This trend looks set to continue in 2007 with chilled shipments likely to return to their average annual growth rate since the late 1990s of 10 per cent. The relative competitiveness of New Zealand lamb is expected to boost trade further, particularly to the UK.
Global & EU Market Prospects
58
New Zealand Fresh/Chilled Exports to the EU (Tonnes pw) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000
2001
Global & EU Market Prospects
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(f)
59
European Union Enlargement 2007 On the 1st January 2007, Bulgaria and Romania joined the European Union bringing the total number of member states to 27. This latest EU enlargement adds over 29 million people or six per cent to the European Union population. The EU-27 population stands at around 495 million people, leaving it as the third most populated political entity in the world after China and India. Romania is the larger of the two new accession states with a population of almost 22 million people while the current Bulgarian population stands at just under 8 million. The previous enlargement of the EU took place in May 2004 when ten states joined including eight CEEC states together with Malta and Cyprus. This boosted the EU population by over 74 million.
Enlargement of EU, 1957 to 2007
1957 BE-DE-FR-IT-LU-NL 1973 DK-IE-UK 1981 GR 1986 ES-PT 1994 AT-FL-SE 2004 CY-CZ-EE-HU-LT LV-MT-PL-SL-SK
2007 BG-RO
Meat & Livestock Sectors in Accession States Over 55 per cent of the land in Romania is farmed by 4.3 million people, which means the majority of Romanian farms are small 1-2 hectare family run units. The remainder of farms average between 1 and 5 hectares in size. A large proportion of farms are owned and run by cooperatives. There are approximately 680,000 farms in Bulgaria with one third of the land owned by private farmers. The average family farm size stands at 1.3 hectares. Co-operatives own and farm the remaining two thirds of the total agricultural land with the largest accounting for over 40 per cent of the total.
EU Enlargement 2007
60
Pigmeat is the main meat consumed in Romania and Bulgaria, followed by beef, while sheepmeat consumption is low but rising slightly. Both countries combined are only 74 per cent self-sufficient in beef production and 78 per cent self-sufficient in pigmeat production. Therefore they have a substantial import requirement in each of these meats. However, sheepmeat selfsufficiency stands at 102 per cent, leaving a small amount for export.
Cattle & Beef Accession States Beef Balance
Distribution of EU Beef Production (%)
(‘000t cwe unless stated otherwise)
Romania
Bulgaria
Herd (m head)
2.9
0.7
Production
203
60
Beef Imports
30
60
Beef Exports
3
0
Consumption - ‘000t cwe - Kg per head
230 10.5
120 15
Self Sufficiency
88%
50%
EU-15 91% 2004 Accession 6%
Romania 2%
Bulgaria 1%
The new member states have a combined cattle herd of 3.6 million head and their accession to the EU will increase the total EU herd by four per cent. There are approximately 400,000 cows in Bulgaria and 1.7 million in Romania. The cow herds in both countries are predominantly made up of dairy and dairy-cross breeds. Farms with one to two cows account for over fifty per cent of the total cow herd reflecting the strong levels of subsistence farming in these states. Total beef production in Romania and Bulgaria stands at approximately 260,000 tonnes, around three per cent of the current EU-25 output. Romania alone accounts for just over 200,000 tonnes of total production. The majority of production comes from small, mixed farm enterprises. The majority of beef produced in Bulgaria comes from the dairy herd essentially as a by-product of milk production there. Imports in amounted to 90,000 tonnes, with Bulgaria accounting for 60,000 tonnes. This figure is expected to have increased in 2006. The majority of imports are from Brazil (almost 80 per cent) and mainly consist of frozen product destined for further processing. Neither country exports any beef but do ship some live cattle (20,000 tonnes equivalent) to countries such as Italy and Spain with some trade also to the Middle East.
EU Enlargement 2007
61
Consumption stands at around 350,000 tonnes for both countries with average per capita consumption higher in Bulgaria at 15 kilos compared to 10.5 kilos in Romania. On-farm consumption levels are high in each country. The previous enlargement in 2004, increased EU beef production by approximately 500,000 tonnes or seven per cent. EU consumption levels rose by a similar amount. It is interesting to note that in 1996 the EU was producing a similar amount of beef with just 15 member states compared to 27 member states in 2007. This gives an indication of the falling levels of beef production in the EU over the past decade.
Pigmeat Accession States Pigmeat Balance
Distribution of EU Pigmeat Production (%)
(‘000t cwe unless stated otherwise)
Romania
Bulgaria
Herd (m head)
4.9
0.9
Production
455
122
Meat Imports
153
17
Meat Exports
5
2
Consumption - ‘000t cwe - Kg per head
603 27.5
137 17.5
Self Sufficiency
75%
89%
EU-15 82%
2004 Accession 15%
Romania 2%
Bulgaria 1%
The total pig herd for both countries is approximately 5.8 million head with Romania accounting for 4.9 million of the overall figure. Annual production in Romania has fluctuated over the last number of years and now stands at around 455,000 tonnes. Overall, Romania and Bulgaria will add 580,000 tonnes or three per cent to EU production. Around three quarters of all pigs are kept on small individual farms although some concentration of the pigmeat sector has started with large multinational meat processors such as Smithfield recently moving into the Romanian market. With growing consumption levels, particularly in Romania, and steady production, import levels have been rising and are expected to continue to do so. Imports for both countries stood at 170,000 tonnes in 2005 with the majority of supplies coming from Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Exports from both countries are virtually non-existent given the current low self-sufficiency levels. EU pigmeat production and consumption increased by just over three million tonnes or around 20 per cent following the previous EU expansion in 2004. EU-25 production levels have continued to increase over the last 2 years while consumption has remained relatively stable.
EU Enlargement 2007
62
Sheepmeat Accession States Sheepmeat Balance
Distribution of EU Sheepmeat Production (%)
(‘000t cwe unless stated otherwise)
Romania
Bulgaria
Herd (m head)
8.3
2.1
Production
53
43
Meat Imports
2
0
Meat Exports
0
8
Consumption - ‘000t cwe - Kg per head
55 2.6
35 4.5
96%
123%
Self Sufficiency
EU-15 90% 2004 Accession 2%
Romania 5%
Bulgaria 3%
The combined sheep flock of both countries stands at over 10 million head with the ewe flock currently standing at approximately eight million head representing 13 per cent of the total EU breeding flock. Romania accounts for 8.3 million head of the total. The majority of sheep are kept for milk production in the new accession states. Consequently light lamb is the main meat product produced. Their light lamb supply will account for eight per cent of overall EU production in 2007. Smaller, hardier breeds are used in both countries, which are well adapted to the continental climate conditions in mountainous areas. The sheep flock has been falling in Bulgaria in recent years while rising in Romania. Romania is the main supplier of live animals in the region, exporting almost 17,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent in live shipments. Bulgaria meanwhile, exports around 8,000 tonnes of light lamb to countries such as France at various times of the year. Consumption has risen in Romania recently and is expected to continue to do so. Current consumption per capita is in the range of 2.6 kilos in Romania compared to 4.5 kilos per capita in Bulgaria. As with beef, there are high levels of on-farm consumption in both countries. Demand for sheepmeat reaches its highest level at Easter in the region with demand also rising during Christmas. The ten accession states in 2004 added just 25,000 tonnes or two per cent to the total EU sheepmeat production figure to leave the EU-25 output at 1.058 million tonnes, as many of the new member states had relatively small commercial sheep industries. This has since fallen to under 1 million tonnes and is still in decline. Sheepmeat consumption increased by just 14,000 tonnes following the accession of 10 new members in 2004. This figure may have been affected however, by relatively strong levels of subsistence farming and on-farm consumption in the 10 new member states.
EU Enlargement 2007
63
Statistical Appendix Cattle and Beef Irish Beef Balance Sheet, 1997 to 2006 Irish Cattle Numbers, June 1996 to 2005 Irish Cattle Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1996 to 2006 Average Carcase Weights, 1997 to 2006 Irish Beef Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Live Cattle Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Cattle Prices by Month, 2000 to 2006 Quarterly Cattle Slaughterings at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006
Sheep & Sheepmeat Irish Sheepmeat Balance Sheet, 1996 to 2006 Irish Sheep Numbers, June 1996 to 2005 Irish Sheep Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006 Irish Sheepmeat Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Lamb Prices by Month, 2000 to 2006 Quarterly Sheep Slaughterings at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006
Pigs & Pigmeat Irish Pigmeat Balance Sheet, 1996 to 2006 Irish Pig Numbers, June 1996 to 2005 Irish Pig Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006 Northern Ireland Pig Supplies, 1997 to 2006 Irish Pigmeat Exports, 1997 to 2006 Irish Grade 'E' Prices by Month, 2000 to 2006 Quarterly Pig Slaughterings at Export Meat Plants, 1997 to 2006
Statistical Appendix
64
Cattle and Beef Population
3664000
3703000
3742000
3790000
3847000
3917000
3979000
4044000
4131000
4235000
Irish Beef Balance Sheet ('000 tonnes cwe) 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006(e)
GIP Production*
570
611
704
633
591
554
590
578
567
599
Net Production (Slaughterings)*
558
586
634
568
569
530
561
555
542
569
19
15
10
12
21
16
18
30
32
33
472
523
643
520
350
464
500
499
488
516
Commerical
472
510
554
504
350
463
495
499
488
516
Stock Change (2)
30
-3
-80
-18
164
5
-5
0
0
0
+ Beef Imports - Beef Exports (1) of which:
Consumption (3) - '000 tonnes cwe - Kg/head
75
81
81
78
76
77
84
86
86
86
20.5
21.9
21.6
20.6
19.8
19.7
21.1
21.3
20.8
20.3
* excludes animals removed under BSE control programmes (1) Includes sales of Intervention beef (2) Changes in public stocks, market support schemes such as PFD & SPS and private stock changes due to exceptional market conditions (3) Residual figure after allowing for stock changes
Irish Cattle Numbers, June 1996-2005 ('000 head)*
Total Cattle
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
7,313
7,534
7,641
7,389
7,039
7,050
6,991
7,000
7,017
6,889 2,348
2,379
2,454
2,482
2,418
2,365
2,380
2,318
2,343
2,363
- Dairy
1,266
1,252
1,234
1,201
1,178
1,183
1,164
1,156
1,156
1,117
- Other
1113
1202
1,248
1,217
1,187
1,197
1,154
1,187
1,207
1,231
Heifers in-calf
360
388
356
331
332
331
374
353
370
368
- Dairy
231
244
229
214
207
198
231
216
230
227
- Other
129
144
127
117
125
133
143
137
140
141
47
51
53
55
56
59
63
64
67
69
Cows
Bulls Two years old & over
1,036
986
1,002
1,058
1,017
941
844
902
910
906
- Male
732
690
708
737
722
642
560
599
605
608
- Female
304
296
294
321
295
299
284
303
305
298
One to two years
1,639
1,717
1,783
1,706
1,517
1,515
1,593
1,577
1,535
1,510
- Male
996
1,055
1,086
1,039
912
913
992
983
950
890
- Female
643
662
697
667
605
602
601
594
585
620
1,852
1,938
1,965
1,821
1,752
1,824
1,799
1,761
1,772
1,688
974 878
1023 915
1055 910
965 856
919 833
955 869
953 846
922 839
930 842
856 832
Under one year - Male - Female Source: CSO
Figures may vary slightly due to rounding. Revised Intercensal series, June 1995-2000 * June 2006 figures unavailable
Irish Cattle Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997-2006 ('000 head)
Total Cattle
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1,625
1,763
1,997
1,755
1,781
1,666
1,762
1,724
1,606
1,692
- Steers
950
992
1061
900
955
862
919
860
785
811
- Heifers
320
352
461
430
376
418
432
404
362
418
- Cows
321
390
415
360
366
322
335
344
342
358
5
22
48
65
40
54
94
95
79
34
24
38
17
19
24
22
22
22
26
- Young Bulls - Others
Statistical Appendix
65
Average Cattle Carcase Weights, 1997-2006 (kg) 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Steers
352
343
337
338
337
334
334
338
352
351
Heifers
288
279
268
265
267
265
267
272
286
287
Cows Young Bulls
285
278
279
281
287
284 333
288 321
295 320
304 351
301 362
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Irish Beef Exports, 1997 - 2006 ('000 tonnes cwe)
Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
472
510
554
504
350
463
495
499
2005 2006(e)
489
516
of which to: UK
104
85
95
112
225
257
251
270
260
250
Cont. EU
89
130
150
135
72
116
162
173
192
228
- France
25
45
49
36
13
18
20
24
45
52
- Italy
20
28
32
30
11
20
35
40
42
51
- Holland
18
25
32
27
25
30
39
42
40
45
- Scandinavia
20
22
25
24
13
30
35
34
33
40
3
5
6
6
3
6
9
12
14
16
- Spain - Portugal
2
1
2
4
3
4
6
8
9
11
- Other*
1
4
4
8
4
8
18
13
9
13
Int. mkts
279
295
309
257
53
90
82
56
37
38
- Russia
74
52
33
11
43
83
76
47
27
30
- Egypt
83
120
154
150
0
0
1
1
1
0
- Other
122
123
122
96
10
7
5
8
9
8
Source: Bord Bia estimates * includes New Member States from 2004 (e) 2006 figures estimated
Irish Live Cattle Exports, 1997-2006 ('000 head) 1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
57
171
416
403
101
147
218
134
185
250
Int. Mkts
7
29
74
65
11
32
37
12
10
1
Total of which to:
- Lebanon
2
29
74
63
11
32
37
12
10
0
- Other
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
Cont. EU
23
137
324
311
40
73
141
74
148
221
- Spain
15
87
196
182
32
57
86
21
50
72
- Italy
5
30
75
60
5
10
18
20
47
67
- Holland
2
15
35
53
1
5
35
31
44
52
- France
0
1
10
14
1
0
0
0
5
12
- Belgium
1
3
5
1
0
0
1
2
1
17
- Other
0
1
3
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
27
5
18
27
50
42
40
48
28
28
United Kingdom
NOTE: From 2002, live exports are based on CMMS database & are not directly comparable with earlier years
Statistical Appendix
66
Irish Cattle Prices by Month, 2000-2006 (c/kg dw excl VAT) R3 Steers 2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
238.3
246.5
243.4
235.8
245.4
267.1
278.6
February
247.3
236.2
248.9
233.9
252.8
277.5
279.5
March
246.6
241.6
246.1
228.6
254.8
280.4
284.7
April
249.6
243.0
244.7
229.1
262.2
282.0
290.2
May
257.8
236.9
243.1
230.7
266.9
281.9
293.2
June
267.7
238.2
242.9
235.2
273.5
279.3
290.5
July
259.8
236.3
235.3
233.6
264.5
256.6
278.1
August
258.0
219.3
227.2
231.6
254.9
238.7
270
September
256.4
221.1
225.3
224.7
247.4
235.2
276.2
October
247.2
215.2
221.9
225.4
234.7
235.3
279.3
November
236.2
215.7
223.2
229.8
236.5
251.5
279.1
December YEAR
218.6 248.6
220.3 230.9
230.1 236.0
239.1 231.5
242.0 253.0
269.5 262.9
279.1 281.6
2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
223.6
248.2
250.4
240.7
243.5
268.4
279.1
February
233.9
232.4
251.9
238.2
252.2
277.7
279.9
March
235.3
240.9
247.3
233.6
254.6
281.1
285.5
April
241.9
241.6
245.5
232.9
261.8
283.7
291.1
Irish R3 Steer Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
J
300
F 280
M A
260
M J
240
2006
J
2005
A
220
S
200
O 180 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
NO
N
D
N
D
N
D
D
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
R3 Heifers Irish R3 Heifer Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 300
280
May
251.4
238.8
243.7
233.4
266.8
283.9
294
June
263.5
240.5
244.2
237.2
274.1
282.3
292.7
July
258.8
234.8
236.9
235.3
265.6
263.8
282.3
August
256.6
219.3
228.2
235.3
255.6
249.4
274
September
256.4
223.6
228.1
228.2
249.6
246.4
279.5
October
245.4
221.8
225.2
227.1
238.0
244.8
282.4
November
236.4
227.5
230.2
232.5
241.4
258.7
282.4
December* YEAR
227.7 244.2
233.6 233.6
236.7 239.0
239.7 234.5
242.0 253.8
270.8 267.6
283.8 283.9
2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
151.5
165.1
172.6
152.4
179.9
205.2
228.8
260
February
160.2
166.0
171.8
166.1
197.2
220.0
233.2
240
March
166.3
169.0
175.2
167.8
202.9
227.8
241.6
April
181.3
175.6
177.1
169.0
210.1
230.0
249.1
May
202.7
167.1
175.3
173.9
217.5
228.9
252.7
June
217.6
164.4
166.8
179.5
223.9
213.7
235.4
July
207.3
163.9
154.5
168.3
200.6
190.7
216.9
160
August
209.0
161.8
151.5
166.1
189.6
189.9
218.1
140
September
209.4
169.4
154.6
161.1
188.0
193.6
225.0
120
October
197.7
164.7
149.6
163.4
181.3
187.9
227.0
November
162.7
164.3
134.7
161.4
183.8
198.9
226.4
December* YEAR
134.8 183.4
178.8 167.5
136.7 161.0
165.3 166.2
183.0 196.5
209.7 208.0
221.2 231.3
260
2006
240
2005 220
200 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
O3 Cows Irish O3 Cow Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
220 200 180
2006 2005
100 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Statistical Appendix
67
Quarterly Cattle Slaughterings at Meat Export Premises 1997 - 2006 ('000 head) Steers 1997 First Quarter % of Total
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
309
308
243
246
201
212
192
172
191
31.1%
29.0%
27.0%
25.8%
23.3%
23.1%
22.3%
21.9%
23.6%
207
198
225
202
230
202
212
173
134
187
21.8%
20.0%
21.2%
22.4%
24.1%
23.4%
23.1%
20.1%
17.1%
23.1%
210
203
247
220
227
237
258
259
262
218
22.1%
20.5%
23.3%
24.4%
23.8%
27.5%
28.1%
30.1%
33.4%
26.9%
Fourth Quarter % of Total
2000
281
Third Quarter % of Total
1999
29.6%
Second Quarter % of Total
1998
252
282
281
235
252
222
237
236
217
215
26.5%
28.4%
26.5%
26.1%
26.4%
25.8%
25.8%
27.4%
27.6%
26.5%
950
992
1,061
900
955
862
919
860
785
811
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
YEAR
Heifers
First Quarter % of Total
75
84
118
132
100
109
117
106
89
118
23.4%
23.9%
25.6%
30.7%
26.6%
26.1%
27.1%
26.2%
24.6%
28.2%
Second Quarter % of Total
71
73
109
97
82
84
91
78
82
97
22.2%
20.7%
23.6%
22.6%
21.8%
20.1%
21.1%
19.3%
22.7%
23.2%
Third Quarter % of Total
77
93
110
100
83
93
94
93
82
93
24.1%
26.4%
23.9%
23.3%
22.1%
22.2%
21.8%
23.0%
22.7%
22.2%
Fourth Quarter % of Total
97
102
124
101
111
132
130
127
109
110
30.3%
29.0%
26.9%
23.5%
29.5%
31.6%
30.1%
31.4%
30.1%
26.3%
320
352
461
430
376
418
432
404
362
418
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
YEAR
Cows
First Quarter % of Total
78
82
94
97
67
74
72
65
57
76
24.3%
21.0%
22.7%
26.9%
18.3%
23.0%
21.5%
18.9%
16.7%
21.2%
78
102
98
104
64
61
74
68
84
88
24.3%
26.2%
23.6%
28.9%
17.5%
18.9%
22.1%
19.8%
24.6%
24.6%
Second Quarter % of Total Third Quarter % of Total
84
115
110
91
105
88
89
97
97
95
26.2%
29.5%
26.5%
25.3%
28.7%
27.3%
26.6%
28.2%
28.4%
26.5%
Fourth Quarter
81
91
113
68
130
99
100
114
104
99
% of Total
25.2%
23.3%
27.2%
18.9%
35.5%
30.7%
29.9%
33.1%
30.4%
27.7%
YEAR % Previous Dec cow herd
321 14.0%
390 16.5%
415 17.3%
360 15.4%
366 15.9%
322 14.0%
335 14.7%
344 15.1%
342 15.0%
358 15.9%
Statistical Appendix
68
4E+06
Population
Sheep and Sheepmeat 3664000
3703000
3742000
3790000
3847000
3917000
3979000
4044000
4131000
4235000
Irish Sheepmeat Balance Sheet ('000 tonnes cwe) 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006(e)
GIP Production
85
71
82
85
78
74
64
60
68
70
68.5
Net Production (Slaughterings)
90
75
87
90
83
78
67
63
72
75
71.5
+ Sheepmeat Imports
1.0
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2
2
3
3
3.0
- Sheepmeat Exports
67
49
59
60
55
62
49
45
55
58
54.0
24.0
27.6
30.0
32.0
30.0
18.0
19.2
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.5
6.6
7.5
8.1
8.6
7.9
4.7
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
Consumption - '000 Tonnes cwe - Kg/head (e) 2006 figures estimated
Irish Sheep Numbers, June 1996 - 2005 ('000 head)* 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
TOTAL SHEEP
7,888
8,132
8,312
7,926
7,555
7,331
7,209
6,849
6,777
6,204
Total Breeding Flock
4,466
4,492
4,577
4,399
4,216
4,020
3,909
3,718
3,670
3,363
Ewes for Breeding
4,356
4,380
4,463
4,287
4,106
3,915
3,804
3,615
3,543
3,267
110
112
114
112
110
105
105
103
100
97
3,422
3,640
3,735
3,527
3,339
3,311
3,300
3,131
3,107
2,841
Rams Other Sheep Source: CSO Figures may not add due to rounding Revised Intercensal series, June 1995-2000 * June 2006 survey results unavailable
Irish Sheep Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997-2006 ('000 head )
TOTAL
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3,092
3,652
3,902
3,543
3,498
2,911
2,785
3,229
3,280
3,149
2,766
3,234
3,426
3,075
3,109
2,516
2,409
2,766
2,765
2,693
326
418
476
468
389
395
376
463
515
456
of which:
Lambs Cull Ewes
Irish Sheepmeat Exports, 1997-2006 ('000 tonnes cwe)
Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 2006(e)
49.0
59.0
60.0
55.0
62.0
49.0
44.0
53.6
58.0
54.0
of which to: France
36.0
43.0
45.0
41.0
47.0
35.0
29.0
32.3
33.7
31.5
UK
4.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.9
6.8
8.0
12.0
14.0
12.5
Germany
3.6
3.0
4.5
3.1
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.4
2.1
2.0
Italy
1.3
2.0
1.5
0.8
2.0
1.9
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.3
Spain
1.0
0.6
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.4
Portugal Other
1.0 2.1
2.8 3.6
1.0 2.4
1.5 3.1
1.5 3.8
1.5 2.0
1.0 3.0
1.3 4.1
1.0 5.4
0.8 5.5
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Statistical Appendix
69
Irish Lamb Prices by Month, 2000-2006 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 2000
January
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
c/kg
289.6
378.7
476.1
363.3
348.3
350.9
316.8
February
353.8
421.2
411.6
367.1
389.4
343.8
322.1
March
372.0
490.0
383.1
370.8
405.2
353.1
341.5
April
367.6
441.2
402.7
421.3
425.6
366.2
393.7
May
338.7
496.9
419.1
472.0
422.3
374.0
408.0
June
298.4
447.8
385.3
396.7
381.0
372.6
386.7
July
263.2
430.0
328.5
341.6
354.0
334.9
336.6
August
278.7
401.1
347.1
344.8
332.8
315.6
326.0
September
281.7
424.7
354.9
334.2
332.0
306.0
325.4
October
280.9
429.3
339.9
323.7
320.8
303.8
329.1
November December*
306.8 341.3
480.8 502.7
348.6 351.9
321.8 324.0
330.4 337.3
314.2 324.4
327.5 330.8
YEAR
314.4
445.4
380.1
365.1
364.9
338.3
345.3
Irish Lamb Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl.VAT) 450
400
350
300
250
2005 2006
200
150
100 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Quarterly Sheep Slaughterings at Meat Export Premises 1997 - 2006 ('000 head) Lambs 1997 First Quarter % of Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
396
487
571
470
494
248
427
451
551
476
15.1%
16.7%
15.3%
15.9%
9.9%
17.7%
16.3%
19.9%
17.7%
826
900
1,000
937
825
677
666
710
729
740
29.9%
27.8%
29.2%
30.5%
26.5%
26.9%
27.6%
25.7%
26.4%
27.5%
Third Quarter % of Total
1999
14.3%
Second Quarter % of Total
1998
912
1,048
1,000
910
1,020
897
731
879
755
810
33.0%
32.4%
29.2%
29.6%
32.8%
35.7%
30.3%
31.8%
27.3%
30.1%
Fourth Quarter
632
799
855
758
770
694
585
725
730
667
% of Total
22.8%
24.7%
25.0%
24.7%
24.8%
27.6%
24.3%
26.2%
26.4%
24.8%
YEAR
2,766
3,234
3,426
3,075
3,109
2,516
2,409
2,765
2,765
2,693
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Cull Ewes
First Quarter % of Total
47
54
69
74
67
48
56
55
116
91
14.4%
12.9%
14.5%
15.9%
17.2%
12.2%
14.9%
11.9%
22.5%
20.0%
Second Quarter % of Total
83
70
117
118
109
86
97
104
109
104
25.5%
16.7%
24.6%
25.3%
28.0%
21.8%
25.8%
22.5%
21.2%
22.9%
Third Quarter % of Total
100
109
160
145
113
133
121
163
150
142
30.7%
26.1%
33.6%
31.1%
29.0%
33.7%
32.2%
35.2%
29.1%
31.2%
Fourth Quarter % of Total
96
185
130
129
100
128
102
141
140
118
29.4%
44.3%
27.3%
27.7%
25.7%
32.4%
27.1%
30.5%
27.2%
25.9%
YEAR % previous Dec ewe flock
326
418
476
466
389
395
376
463
515
455
7.7%
9.7%
11.2%
11.4%
9.9%
10.4%
10.1%
12.6%
14.8%
14.2%
Statistical Appendix
70
Pigs and Pigmeat ####
Population
3664000
3703000
3742000
3790000
3847000 3917000
3979000
4044000
4131000
4235000
Irish Pigmeat Balance Sheet ('000 tonnes cwe) 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
GIP Production
221
242
255
256
241
245
245
240
238
242
240
Net Production (Slaughterings)
211
221
243
251
231
241
231
217
204
205
206
+ Pigmeat Imports
29
29
34
34
43
44
46
48
48
58
53
- Pigmeat Exports
101
108
125
135
124
135
127
118
103
113
109
Consumption - '000 Tonnes cwe
139
142
152
150
150
150
150
147
149
150
150
- Kg/head
38.4
38.8
41.0
40.1
39.6
39.0
38.3
36.9
36.8
36.3
35.4
(e) 2006 figures estimated
Irish Pig Numbers, June 1997-2005 ('000 head)*
Total Pigs
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1,700
1,819
1,787
1,722
1,741
1,770
1,713
1,645
1,681 173
of which: Breeding Pigs
192
200
193
181
187
185
176
170
- Gilts in pig
27
26
26
20
21
19
19
19
18
- Sows in pig
104
111
110
110
107
110
104
102
100
- Other sows - Gilts not yet served - Boars Fattening Pigs
37
39
37
30
36
32
31
29
32
18
20
17
18
20
21
18
17
20
5
5
4
4
3
4
3
3
3 1,508
1,508
1,619
1,594
1,541
1,554
1,584
1,538
1,475
- 80 kg and over
140
169
142
129
144
154
169
132
136
- 50kg and under 80kg
391
430
409
379
377
390
373
369
380
- 20kg and under 50kg - Less than 20kg
530 447
551 469
551 493
507 527
479 555
485 556
466 529
467 507
477 515
Source: CSO * June 2006 survey results unavailable
Irish Pig Throughput at Export Meat Plants, 1997-2006 ('000 head)
Total Pigs
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2,750
3,118
3,335
3,048
3,196
3,038
2,834
2,684
2,618
2,619
Northern Ireland Pig Supplies, 1997-2006 ('000 head)
Total Pigs
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1,514
1,403
1,274
1,295
1,067
1,228
1,337
1,311
1,297
1,195
Statistical Appendix
71
Irish Pigmeat Exports,1997 - 2006 ('000 tonnes pw) 000 tonnes pw Total
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006(e)
108
125
132
120
130
123
118
95
103
99
of which to: UK
58
66
70
66
66
68
61
46
52
49
Cont. EU
38
50
41
32
54
34
28
23
29
28 12
- Germany
15
18
16
15
19
14
12
10
12
- France
10
13
10
8
14
7
4
3
4
5
7
11
10
5
8
6
4
3
3
3
- Italy - Other EU
Int. Mkts
6
8
5
4
13
8
8
8
11
8
12
9
21
22
10
21
29
26
22
22
- Japan
8
4
10
12
3
3
6
10
11
10
- USA
1
2
2
2
1
5
12
5
4
2
6
8
7
5
2
7
1
5
4
6
6
3
- Russia 3
- Other non-EU
3
10
8
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Irish Grade 'E' Pig Prices, 2000-2006 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 2000 c/kg
2001 c/kg
2002 c/kg
2003 c/kg
2004 c/kg
2005 c/kg
2006 c/kg
January
109.5
139.8
127.5
123.9
123.2
126.7
130.6
February
111.5
146.5
123.4
124.4
127.8
128.9
129.8
March
119.8
161.0
129.5
124.3
135.1
131.7
132.1
April
127.4
149.4
130.5
124.7
133.6
127.4
135.1
May
131.0
155.6
132.4
121.8
130.6
124.2
136.1
June
137.9
157.3
135.3
119.3
130.3
129.0
141.9
July
137.6
152.8
134.3
117.7
137.8
134.3
144.9
August
132.4
146.0
127.7
116.7
136.9
132.4
146.0
September
132.4
139.9
124.9
121.5
136.0
134.3
149.0
October
134.5
138.6
124.7
126.1
135.8
134.5
150.4
November
139.7
135.2
124.6
128.5
135.9
132.8
143.6
December*
140.6
134.8
124.8
128.2
133.8
133.2
141.0
YEAR
129.5
146.4
128.3
123.1
133.1
130.8
140.0
Grade 'E' Pig Prices, 2006 V's 2005 (c/kg dw excl. VAT) 160
150
140
130
120
2006 2005
110
100 J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: Department of Agriculture & Food
Quarterly Pig Slaughterings at Meat Export Premises 1997 - 2006 ('000 head) Total Pigs 1997 First Quarter % of Total
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
676
706
884
813
782
817
733
644
663
652
22.6%
26.5%
26.7%
24.5%
26.9%
25.9%
24.0%
25.3%
24.9%
664
721
811
738
786
743
704
648
603
656
24.1%
23.1%
24.3%
24.2%
24.6%
24.5%
24.8%
24.1%
23.0%
25.0%
Third Quarter % of Total
1999
24.6%
Second Quarter % of Total
1998
702
889
828
757
823
736
709
728
695
670
25.5%
28.5%
24.8%
24.8%
25.8%
24.2%
25.0%
27.1%
26.5%
25.6%
Fourth Quarter
708
802
812
740
805
742
688
664
657
641
% of Total
25.7%
25.7%
24.3%
24.3%
25.2%
24.4%
24.3%
24.7%
25.1%
24.5%
YEAR
2,750
3,118
3,335
3,048
3,196
3,038
2,834
2,684
2,618
2,619
Statistical Appendix
72
