Siam Global House
Siam Global House Buy (16E TP Bt12.50)
Company update
Close Bt11.40
Commerce
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
September 28, 2015
Invests 40% in home center company in Laos Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.263
0.325
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐8.7%
‐4.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GLOBAL.BK/GLOBAL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,484.28
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
40.00/1,099.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.36
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.86/7.95
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,023.00 0.76
Estimated free float (%)
33.07
Beta
1.08
URL
www.globalhouse.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Insufficient or not clearly defined policy
Pornsawat Jirajarus Analyst no. 18228 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6257
Starts tapping overseas market...maintain a Buy rating GLOBAL’s tapping of Laos via investment in a leading local player should bring a good stream of equity income in the long term due to the growing construction material and home improvement markets there. We expect its earnings trend to remain good in 2H15 from lessening cannibalization and no repeat of the steel inventory loss; moreover, profit should accelerate from the recovery of domestic consumption in 2016. We maintain our positive view, with its strong expansion outlook remaining the key attraction and the stock’s PE/EPS growth of 1.0x to EPS CAGR of 36% in FY16‐17E looking justified. Maintain a Buy call. To invest 40% in Lao home center company GLOBAL this morning notified the SET that GLOBAL International, a 50:50 joint venture between GLOBAL and the Siam Cement Group, will invest 40% in Souvanny Home Center Pcl., “Souvanny”. The company operates trading business for construction materials and home improvement products in Laos. GLOBAL International will reduce its stake to 34% after Souvanny lists in the Lao Stock Exchange (LSX). Good prospect from taking part in the no.1 player Souvanny is in the filing process with the LSX, expecting to go IPO by the end of this year. The company holds around a 60% market share in the home improvement market in Laos, which has merely two leading players. Its paid‐up capital is around Bt1.16bn and it had a 2014 net profit of Bt85mn (+50% YoY). The company has four branches thus far and plans to open three more branches by the end of this year. The firm expects to use the IPO proceeds to expand its stores to 14 branches by 2017. Short‐term catalyst for Souvanny could come from the 2016 ASEAN Summit Meeting in Laos, which is expected to spur demand for construction materials used for building MICE facilities. Positive with growing Laos market and potential investment gain GLOBAL has not yet disclosed many details of the deal, but we view this move quite positively in light of the growing construction material and home improvement markets in Laos as well as the potential investment gain that will come after Souvanny‘s listing. For GLOBAL’s existing operation, we expect heavy rain to hinder its same‐store‐sales growth in 3Q15 (from +4.4% in 2Q15) but the earnings trend should remain good from a lessening cannibalization impact. We maintain our profit forecast but roll over the TP to Bt12.50 in 2016 (WACC 8.95%, terminal growth 3%). Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 14,302 942 0.36 23.5% 0.19 3.94 2013 50.50 31.42 4.62 1.02 8.9% 32.1%
2014 15,561 702 0.23 ‐36.1% 0.16 4.71 2014 56.48 23.74 2.76 1.22 5.3% 24.5%
2015E 17,262 829 0.24 3.4% 0.15 4.27 2015E 47.90 20.46 2.67 1.28 5.4% 27.5%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 20,577 1,090 0.31 31.4% 0.19 4.56 2016E 36.44 16.34 2.50 1.69 7.1% 30.6%
2017E 25,853 1,534 0.44 40.7% 0.27 4.98 2017E 25.90 12.65 2.29 2.37 9.2% 31.6%
Figure 1: Earnings results Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q14 3,891 584 414 (32) 121 (42) 0 0
3Q14 3,644 561 369 (35) 99 (33) 0 0
4Q14 3,896 604 424 (37) 127 (43) 2 0
1Q15 4,515 648 478 (34) 149 (54) 0 (21)
2Q15 4,435 763 540 (33) 136 (66) 0 21
170 170 0.06 15.0 10.3 4.2 2.9 13.1 0.5 4.5 6.9
131 131 0.04 15.4 9.9 3.5 2.7 10.7 0.5 4.6 5.9
172 172 0.06 15.5 10.5 4.3 2.7 11.6 0.5 4.6 5.1
217 234 0.07 14.4 10.3 4.6 2.8 14.0 0.5 4.7 4.9
263 247 0.08 17.2 11.8 5.8 3.0 16.5 0.5 4.2 5.5
% YoY % QoQ 14.0 (1.8) 30.6 17.7 30.4 12.9 3.6 (4.0) 12.3 (8.6) 54.6 21.3 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 55.2 45.3 35.8
21.5 5.5 6.3
1H14 8,021 1,190 898 (62) 268 (100) 0 0 0 399 394 0.14 14.8 11.2 0.0 2.9 14.5 0.5 4.5 6.9
1H15 % YoY 8,950 11.6 1,411 18.6 1,018 13.4 (67) 8.4 284 5.9 (120) 19.9 0 n.m. 0 n.m. 0 480 20.4 480 21.8 0.15 2.3 15.8 11.4 0.0 3.0 15.2 0.5 4.2 5.5
2015E % YoY % YTD 17,262 10.9 51.8 2,613 10.9 54.0 1,994 17.9 51.1 (147) 10.2 45.7 535 8.3 53.1 (207) 18.0 57.8 0 n.m. n.m. 0 n.m. n.m. 0 n.m. n.m. 829 18.2 57.9 829 18.9 57.9 0.24 3.4 61.6 15.1 11.2 4.7 2.3 13.6 0.5 4.3 5.7
Source: GLOBAL, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2013 14,302 (12,113) 2,189 (1,388) 1,619 384 1,235 (71) 434 1,164 (222) (57) 0 0 942 0.36 0.36 998 0.38 0.02
2014 15,561 (13,205) 2,356 (1,842) 1,691 683 1,008 (133) 494 877 (176) 5 0 0 702 0.23 0.23 697 0.23 0.02
2015E 17,262 (14,649) 2,613 (1,965) 1,994 811 1,183 (147) 535 1,037 (207) 0 0 0 829 0.24 0.24 829 0.24 0.02
2016E 20,577 (17,431) 3,146 (2,260) 2,484 961 1,523 (161) 638 1,362 (272) 0 0 0 1,090 0.31 0.31 1,090 0.31 0.02
2017E 25,853 (21,849) 4,004 (2,672) 3,218 1,110 2,108 (191) 776 1,917 (383) 0 0 0 1,534 0.44 0.44 1,534 0.44 0.03
2013 162 13 6,664 8,607 20 16,047 3,466 0 5,746 2,613 10,301 16,047
2014 283 19 7,041 13,160 96 21,174 1,219 3,000 7,091 3,049 14,083 21,174
2015E 380 21 7,224 14,148 99 22,506 1,469 3,000 7,642 3,484 14,864 22,506
2016E 396 25 8,119 15,330 104 24,669 1,269 4,000 8,769 3,484 15,900 24,669
2017E 329 31 9,578 16,404 108 27,216 1,319 4,500 9,854 3,484 17,363 27,216
CASH FLOW (Btmn) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Net income 942 702 829 1,090 1,534 Forex and other extraordinary a 0 0 0 0 1 Depreciation & amortization 384 683 811 961 1,110 Change in working capital (2,440) 211 55 (639) (1,005) Cash flow from operations (1,082) 1,596 1,696 1,412 1,639 Capex (Invest)/Divest (2,490) (1,423) (1,800) (2,142) (2,185) Cash flow from investing (2,490) (1,423) (1,800) (2,142) (2,185) Debt financing (repayment) 3,207 752 250 800 550 Equity financing 910 436 436 0 0 Dividend payment (40) (48) (48) (54) (71) Others (359) (839) (436) 0 0 Cash flow from financing 3,718 301 202 746 479 Net change in cash 146 473 98 16 (67) Free cash flow (1,082) 1,596 1,696 1,412 1,639 FCF per share (Bt) (4.14) 5.23 4.87 4.05 4.70 PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 32.6 29.7 23.5 15.3 11.0 8.4 6.4 6.8 19.1
2014 8.8 4.5 (36.1) 15.1 10.5 6.3 4.4 4.3 20.0
2015E 10.9 17.9 3.4 15.1 11.2 6.6 4.7 4.7 20.0
2016E 19.2 24.6 31.4 15.3 11.7 7.2 5.1 5.1 20.0
2017E 25.6 29.5 40.7 15.5 12.1 7.9 5.8 5.8 20.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL. Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action
Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company update
Close Bt11.40
Commerce
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
September 28, 2015
Invests 40% in home center company in Laos Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.263
0.325
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐8.7%
‐4.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GLOBAL.BK/GLOBAL TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,484.28
Par (Bt)
1.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
40.00/1,099.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/1.36
52 week High / Low (Bt)
12.86/7.95
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
3,023.00 0.76
Estimated free float (%)
33.07
Beta
1.08
URL
www.globalhouse.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Insufficient or not clearly defined policy
Pornsawat Jirajarus Analyst no. 18228 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6257
Starts tapping overseas market...maintain a Buy rating GLOBAL’s tapping of Laos via investment in a leading local player should bring a good stream of equity income in the long term due to the growing construction material and home improvement markets there. We expect its earnings trend to remain good in 2H15 from lessening cannibalization and no repeat of the steel inventory loss; moreover, profit should accelerate from the recovery of domestic consumption in 2016. We maintain our positive view, with its strong expansion outlook remaining the key attraction and the stock’s PE/EPS growth of 1.0x to EPS CAGR of 36% in FY16‐17E looking justified. Maintain a Buy call. To invest 40% in Lao home center company GLOBAL this morning notified the SET that GLOBAL International, a 50:50 joint venture between GLOBAL and the Siam Cement Group, will invest 40% in Souvanny Home Center Pcl., “Souvanny”. The company operates trading business for construction materials and home improvement products in Laos. GLOBAL International will reduce its stake to 34% after Souvanny lists in the Lao Stock Exchange (LSX). Good prospect from taking part in the no.1 player Souvanny is in the filing process with the LSX, expecting to go IPO by the end of this year. The company holds around a 60% market share in the home improvement market in Laos, which has merely two leading players. Its paid‐up capital is around Bt1.16bn and it had a 2014 net profit of Bt85mn (+50% YoY). The company has four branches thus far and plans to open three more branches by the end of this year. The firm expects to use the IPO proceeds to expand its stores to 14 branches by 2017. Short‐term catalyst for Souvanny could come from the 2016 ASEAN Summit Meeting in Laos, which is expected to spur demand for construction materials used for building MICE facilities. Positive with growing Laos market and potential investment gain GLOBAL has not yet disclosed many details of the deal, but we view this move quite positively in light of the growing construction material and home improvement markets in Laos as well as the potential investment gain that will come after Souvanny‘s listing. For GLOBAL’s existing operation, we expect heavy rain to hinder its same‐store‐sales growth in 3Q15 (from +4.4% in 2Q15) but the earnings trend should remain good from a lessening cannibalization impact. We maintain our profit forecast but roll over the TP to Bt12.50 in 2016 (WACC 8.95%, terminal growth 3%). Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 14,302 942 0.36 23.5% 0.19 3.94 2013 50.50 31.42 4.62 1.02 8.9% 32.1%
2014 15,561 702 0.23 ‐36.1% 0.16 4.71 2014 56.48 23.74 2.76 1.22 5.3% 24.5%
2015E 17,262 829 0.24 3.4% 0.15 4.27 2015E 47.90 20.46 2.67 1.28 5.4% 27.5%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 20,577 1,090 0.31 31.4% 0.19 4.56 2016E 36.44 16.34 2.50 1.69 7.1% 30.6%
2017E 25,853 1,534 0.44 40.7% 0.27 4.98 2017E 25.90 12.65 2.29 2.37 9.2% 31.6%
Figure 1: Earnings results Profit and Loss (Btmn) FY Ended 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
2Q14 3,891 584 414 (32) 121 (42) 0 0
3Q14 3,644 561 369 (35) 99 (33) 0 0
4Q14 3,896 604 424 (37) 127 (43) 2 0
1Q15 4,515 648 478 (34) 149 (54) 0 (21)
2Q15 4,435 763 540 (33) 136 (66) 0 21
170 170 0.06 15.0 10.3 4.2 2.9 13.1 0.5 4.5 6.9
131 131 0.04 15.4 9.9 3.5 2.7 10.7 0.5 4.6 5.9
172 172 0.06 15.5 10.5 4.3 2.7 11.6 0.5 4.6 5.1
217 234 0.07 14.4 10.3 4.6 2.8 14.0 0.5 4.7 4.9
263 247 0.08 17.2 11.8 5.8 3.0 16.5 0.5 4.2 5.5
% YoY % QoQ 14.0 (1.8) 30.6 17.7 30.4 12.9 3.6 (4.0) 12.3 (8.6) 54.6 21.3 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 55.2 45.3 35.8
21.5 5.5 6.3
1H14 8,021 1,190 898 (62) 268 (100) 0 0 0 399 394 0.14 14.8 11.2 0.0 2.9 14.5 0.5 4.5 6.9
1H15 % YoY 8,950 11.6 1,411 18.6 1,018 13.4 (67) 8.4 284 5.9 (120) 19.9 0 n.m. 0 n.m. 0 480 20.4 480 21.8 0.15 2.3 15.8 11.4 0.0 3.0 15.2 0.5 4.2 5.5
2015E % YoY % YTD 17,262 10.9 51.8 2,613 10.9 54.0 1,994 17.9 51.1 (147) 10.2 45.7 535 8.3 53.1 (207) 18.0 57.8 0 n.m. n.m. 0 n.m. n.m. 0 n.m. n.m. 829 18.2 57.9 829 18.9 57.9 0.24 3.4 61.6 15.1 11.2 4.7 2.3 13.6 0.5 4.3 5.7
Source: GLOBAL, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
PROFIT & LOSS (Btmn) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra Items Gain (loss) from affiliates Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btmn) Cash and equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Paid‐up shares Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity
2013 14,302 (12,113) 2,189 (1,388) 1,619 384 1,235 (71) 434 1,164 (222) (57) 0 0 942 0.36 0.36 998 0.38 0.02
2014 15,561 (13,205) 2,356 (1,842) 1,691 683 1,008 (133) 494 877 (176) 5 0 0 702 0.23 0.23 697 0.23 0.02
2015E 17,262 (14,649) 2,613 (1,965) 1,994 811 1,183 (147) 535 1,037 (207) 0 0 0 829 0.24 0.24 829 0.24 0.02
2016E 20,577 (17,431) 3,146 (2,260) 2,484 961 1,523 (161) 638 1,362 (272) 0 0 0 1,090 0.31 0.31 1,090 0.31 0.02
2017E 25,853 (21,849) 4,004 (2,672) 3,218 1,110 2,108 (191) 776 1,917 (383) 0 0 0 1,534 0.44 0.44 1,534 0.44 0.03
2013 162 13 6,664 8,607 20 16,047 3,466 0 5,746 2,613 10,301 16,047
2014 283 19 7,041 13,160 96 21,174 1,219 3,000 7,091 3,049 14,083 21,174
2015E 380 21 7,224 14,148 99 22,506 1,469 3,000 7,642 3,484 14,864 22,506
2016E 396 25 8,119 15,330 104 24,669 1,269 4,000 8,769 3,484 15,900 24,669
2017E 329 31 9,578 16,404 108 27,216 1,319 4,500 9,854 3,484 17,363 27,216
CASH FLOW (Btmn) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Net income 942 702 829 1,090 1,534 Forex and other extraordinary a 0 0 0 0 1 Depreciation & amortization 384 683 811 961 1,110 Change in working capital (2,440) 211 55 (639) (1,005) Cash flow from operations (1,082) 1,596 1,696 1,412 1,639 Capex (Invest)/Divest (2,490) (1,423) (1,800) (2,142) (2,185) Cash flow from investing (2,490) (1,423) (1,800) (2,142) (2,185) Debt financing (repayment) 3,207 752 250 800 550 Equity financing 910 436 436 0 0 Dividend payment (40) (48) (48) (54) (71) Others (359) (839) (436) 0 0 Cash flow from financing 3,718 301 202 746 479 Net change in cash 146 473 98 16 (67) Free cash flow (1,082) 1,596 1,696 1,412 1,639 FCF per share (Bt) (4.14) 5.23 4.87 4.05 4.70 PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 32.6 29.7 23.5 15.3 11.0 8.4 6.4 6.8 19.1
2014 8.8 4.5 (36.1) 15.1 10.5 6.3 4.4 4.3 20.0
2015E 10.9 17.9 3.4 15.1 11.2 6.6 4.7 4.7 20.0
2016E 19.2 24.6 31.4 15.3 11.7 7.2 5.1 5.1 20.0
2017E 25.6 29.5 40.7 15.5 12.1 7.9 5.8 5.8 20.0
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Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL. Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action
Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
