social, demographic and cultural trends
SOCIAL, DEMOGRAPHIC AND CULTURAL TRENDS by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide. SA. 5005. Australia. Email: [email protected] Telephone: (61) (08) 8303 3996 Fax: (61) (08) 8303 4341
Paper prepared for Skills Australia/ASAA Scenario Development Forum, Sydney 7th February 2011
1
INTRODUCTION Demographic, social and cultural drivers of change in the Australian workforce over the next 15 years can be anticipated with varying degrees of certainty. For example some aspects of demographic change are highly predictable. Projecting the numbers of Australians in the 50+ age groups in 2025 is by no means a trivial exercise but they can be projected with a high degree of certainty.
On the other hand
anticipating future numbers in the younger workforce ages is more problematical since it will be considerably influenced by migration, permanent and temporary. While Australia’s future workforce will be shaped predominantly by developments within Australia it is important at the outset to make a few comments about the global context. Figure 1 shows that 2010 marked a significant turning point from a workforce perspective. In 2010 there was a peaking of the numbers of persons
Figure 1: Source:
Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates World Bank, 2006
2
in the 15-64 age groups in high income countries. Henceforth they will decline – by 20 million by 2020. On the other hand the numbers in low income countries are not only six times more numerous but their numbers will continue to increase. Secondly it is important to note that international migration continues to increase rapidly in scale and complexity despite the effects of the Global Financial Crisis (OECD 2009, Fix, et al. 2009).
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS Ageing Ageing represents the most significant demographic challenge facing high income countries like Australia. Figure 2 depicts the Australian contemporary age structure and the bulge made up by baby boomers is apparent. The group born in the high fertility postwar years make up 27.5 percent of the Australian population and 41.8 percent of the workforce. They begin to pass the 65 years of age threshold in 2011 and are already beginning to leave the workforce in increasing numbers. It is important to note in Figure 2 that there is a hollowing in the age pyramid under age 20 although recent fertility increase is already apparent. Nevertheless for several years during the 2011-2026 period there will be fewer Australian entering the workforce ages than the year before. The impacts of ageing on the Australian workforce over the next 15 years can be summarised as follows:
A slowdown in net increases in the workforce due to increasing numbers retiring and fewer young people ageing into the workforce age group. These trends can be offset to some degree by increasing age and retirement and increasing participation rates in the 15-64 age groups as well as by migration.
3
An ageing within the workforce influencing the balance of younger recently trained workers and older more experienced workers.
There are substantial variations between different sectors in these two impacts because of wide differences in the representation of baby boomers across sectors.
Figure 2: Source:
Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 ABS Estimated Resident Population data
100
90
80
Females
Males 70
60 Baby Boomers
Age
50
40 First echochildren of baby boomers
30
20 Second echo? Grandchildren of baby boomers
10
0 200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Persons
International Migration International migration is the major determinant of differences in the anticipated rate of growth of the working age population in Australia over the next 15 years. This can be demonstrated by comparing the projections of the population aged 15-64 made by the ABS in its 2005 and 2008 projections in Table 1. It will be noted that while the 2005 series projected only modest growth of the workforce age groups the projections for 2008 were of significant annual increases. The difference is almost entirely due to
4
the different net migration assumptions applied. For many European and a few Asian countries all net increase in the workforce age group is due to net migration and net migration will be an increasingly important contributor to the growth of Australian workforce ages between 2011 and 2026.
Table 1: Source:
Australia: Projected Growth Rates of the Population by Age, 2006-2031 ABS 2005 and 2008 Projections, Series B
Age Group 0-14 15-24 25-64 65+ Total
2006-11 -0.07 0.52 1.15 3.00 1.09
2005 2008 2011-21 2021-31 2006-11 2011-21 Percent Growth Per Annum 0.19 0.27 0.77 2.20 -0.06 0.16 1.15 0.73 0.67 0.34 1.52 2.28 3.50 2.60 2.98 3.49 0.96 0.77 1.52 1.39
2021-31 1.48 2.10 1.64 2.69 1.17
The contribution of immigration to future workforce change in Australia needs to consider a number of elements.
The balance between permanent settlement and temporary migration. Since the mid 1990s Australia has greatly increased the numbers of temporary immigrants allowed to work. These are almost all skilled workers. Not enough is known of their role in the workforce but it is likely they will be of increasing significance over the 2011-2026 period. Currently while permanent immigration is closely determined by government, temporary migration is market driven. Figure 3 shows the increasing importance of temporary migration in
contributing to Australia’s population through Net Overseas Migration (NOM).
5
Permanent and Temporary Components of Net Overseas Migrationa, 1983-2008 Productivity Commission, 2010, 30
Figure 3: Source: 300
250
Persons ('000)
200
150
Temporary Permanent
100
50
2007-08
200 6-07
2005-0 6
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-2000
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91
1989-90
1988-89
1987-88
1986-87
1985-86
1984-85
1983-84
1982-83
0
Year a
For NOM outcomes prior to 2004-05, ABS NOM data do not allow a decomposition of NOM into the temporary and permanent components. For the period 1983–2004, ABS NOM figures were combined with DIAC data on overseas arrivals and departures (OAD). The permanent component was calculated as the net of settler arrivals and permanent departures presented in OAD data. The temporary component was assumed to be the net of the ABS NOM figure and the permanent component. For NOM outcomes after 2004-05, ABS data was used.
The balance between different visa categories. Skilled migration has increased its relative significance in the settlement migration programme as is evident in Figure 4.
6
Figure 4:
Australia: Migration Program Outcomes by Stream, 1989-90 to 200809 DIAC, Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues
Source: 120,000 100,000
Number
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
2008-09
2006-07
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
1986-87
1984-85
1982-83
1980-81
1978-79
1976-77
0
Year Family
Skill
Special Eligibility
Humantiarian
Note: Data prior to 1986-87 for off-shore only. Special Eligibility not included prior to 1982-3.
The role of the State Specific and Regional Migration Programme in meeting the skill/labour needs of particular regions or states.
The extent of migration from New Zealand to Australia.
Policy development in both permanent and temporary migration especially relating to selection criteria.
The nexus between temporary and permanent migration.
The extent of return migration of Australian’s living and working overseas.
The continuing effects of the Global Financial Crisis on permanent and temporary migration to Australia.
The extent of emigration of workers from Australia. Figure 5 shows each year there has been a steady increase of permanent departures of both the Australian and overseas-born populations. In 2009-10 they reached record levels of 42,570
7
and 43,707 respectively. The emigration is more selective of skilled workers than immigration although the difference has narrowed over the last 15 years.
Figure 5:
Permanent Departures of Australia-Born and Overseas-Born Persons from Australia, 1959-60 to 2008-09 DIMIA, Australian Immigration Consolidated Statistics and DIMA Immigration Update, various issues
Source:
90,000 80,000 70,000
Persons
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
Australia-born
2007-08
2005-06
2003-04
2001-02
1997-98
1999-2000
Year
1995-96
1993-94
1991-92
1989-90
1987-88
1985-86
1983-84
1981-82
1979-80
1977-78
1975-76
1973-74
1971-72
1969-70
1967-68
1965-66
1963-64
1961-62
1959-60
0
Overseas-born
Between 2004 and 2009 around 40 percent of job growth in Australia was of overseas born workers – the number of overseas-born workers increased by 17 percent compared with 9 percent for the Australia-born (DIAC 2010, 103).
Other Demographic Factors There are a number of other demographic factors which may have impinged on Australia’s workforce development over the next 15 years.
Changing role of women. One of the most consistent trends in the Australian workforce over recent years has been the increasing proportion that women
8
make up of the total workforce. There is still significant scope to increase this participation.
Fertility. Fertility has a substantial effect on the growth of the workforce in the longer term. Fertility trends over the next fifteen years will translate into an effect on the workforce numbers after 2026 but the increase in fertility between 2002 and 2008 will influence workforce numbers late in the 2011-2026 period. Policies toward fertility may impinge on female participation in the workforce.
Internal migration impinges upon supply and demand of workers at the regional level.
Health factors are of considerable significance if there are going to be attempts to increase the age at retirement or increase labour force participation at other ages. Figure 6 shows the high incidence of overweight and obesity among Australia’s working age population. The health effects of the obesity epidemic may compromise efforts to increase workforce participation especially among baby boomers.
Figure 6: Source:
Percent of Australians Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, 2004 ABS, 2008
9
Social Drivers
Australia has experienced massive social change over the last two decades and such dynamism will continue and impinge upon workforce development. While it is difficult to anticipate new developments some existing and emergent factors which appear to be important are as follows …
Work-life-balance.
This has become an increasingly significant element in
Australian public discourse. It appears to have struck a particular chord with Generation Y which may have implications for the way in which that group engage with the workforce.
Changing patterns of household and family formation. The increasing diversity of the way Australians group themselves into residential units may have implications for their workforce involvement.
The increasing workload of
many in their 40s and 50s, especially women, in not only working outside the home and undertaking household work but also caring for children and/or aged parents has implications for their involvement in the workforce.
What are the implications for a different balance between Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y in the workplace? While we must be careful not to stereotype such groups or exaggerate differences between them it is clear that there are important generational differences in background, experience, skills, attitudes, worth ethic, etc.
Social Inclusion. Inequality remains significant in Australian society and is often a multiple kind being exacerbated by gender, culture, ethnicity and location. Exclusion from labour markets is an important element of inequality and is the basis for wider exclusion. The current buoyant labour market, the positive outlook and near full employment situation offers the best opportunity
10
in a generation to include subgroups in the mainstream workforce that in the past have been excluded.
If ever these groups are to be engaged in the
workforce now is the time. To seize the opportunity will require innovative and different mechanisms of recruitment, training, work practice, etc. and significant cultural change among employers, unions, fellow workers, etc.
Discrimination in the labour market is another element to consider. There is evidence that this has operated to exclude older workers, women, different ethnic groups, etc. from the labour market. Achieving not only the attitudinal change among employers but also having in place the institutions and mechanisms to overcome discrimination are important. If baby boomers are to remain in the workforce longer it will require not just lifting the retirement age but also increasing retraining opportunities, ability to transition to retirement, modifying superannuation, etc.
Family Friendly Initiatives. There is increasing appreciation that initiatives which facilitate Australians, especially young women to have children as well as being significant participants in the paid workforce has strong effects on participation rates in the 20s, 30s and 40s age group. The extent to which family friendly initiatives are undertaken not only by government but also individual employers will be significant.
Cultural Drivers One of the most profound transformations in Australia since World War II has been that from an overwhelmingly Anglo-Celtic society to be one of the most culturally diverse of nations. Table 2 demonstrates a number of dimensions of diversity of the Australian population.
11
Table 2: Source:
Indicators of Australian Diversity, 2006 ABS, 2006 Census Indicator
Percent
Born overseas
22.2
Born overseas in NES country
13.8
Speaks language other than English at home
16.8
Ancestry (multi response) in a NES country
26.0
Non-Christian religion
28.0
Indigenous Population
2.3
No. of birthplace groups with 10,000 +
61
No. of birthplace groups with 1,000 +
118
No. of indigenous persons
455,027
Postwar migration has added substantial diversity to the Australian population as is evident from Figure 7 which shows the increasing significance of non British Europeans, Middle Eastern, Asian and then African groups as the postwar period
Figure 7: Source:
Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947-2009 DIMIA, Australian Immigration Consolidated Statistics; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues and DIAC unpublished data
300000
250000
Number
200000
150000
100000
50000
UK and Ireland
2006-07
2003-04
2000-01
1997-98
1994-95
1991-92
1988-89
1985-86
1982-83
1979-80
1976-77
1973-74
1970-71
1967-68
1964-65
1961-62
1958-59
1955-56
1952-53
1949-50
*1945-47
0
Year Other Europe
*July 1945 to June 1947 Note: Data from 2006-7 onwards are by region of birth
Africa
Americas
NZ and Pacific
Middle East
Asia
12
continued. There are significant challenges as well as potential advantages which this offers to the Australian labour market. Table 3 shows the labour market performance of the overseas-born and Australia-born population. Participation rates are higher than the Australia-born for those from Mainly English-Speaking backgrounds and below them for those from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds.
Table 3: Source:
Employment: Australia-born and Overseas-born DIAC 2010, p. 102
With migration undoubtedly going to contribute a higher percentage of workforce growth in 2011-2026 than in the previous fifteen years it is important to address a number of issues …
13
Research continues to show that a ‘migration-gap’ continues in the Australian workforce. If all other human capital factors are held constant – English language ability, education, workforce experience etc. – migrants continue to earn less than their Australia-born counterparts – this is especially the case of immigrants from NES and/or refugee-humanitarian backgrounds.
Despite considerable progress issues remain regarding the recognition of qualifications and experience earned outside of Australia
Despite the introduction of comprehensive anti-discrimination legislation it is clear that discrimination continues in all areas of society, especially the labour and housing markets.
There is clear evidence of some migrants being upwardly mobile even if they may enter the labour market at a lower level than their qualifications would suggest. However there is also evidence of others who get locked in to the secondary low income insecure labour market.
Migrant women often suffer particular difficulties due to lower ability to speak English, lower education and cultural factors. The Indigenous population is of particular significance to consider. While there
are measurement problems the indigenous population is estimated currently at 563,000 or 2.5 percent of the total population. However it is increasing at around double that of the total population (ABS 3238.0, 34). From the perspective of the workforce it is relevant that the population has a very young age structure and a rapidly growing workforce age population and this will continue over the 2011-2026; period. The more effective engagement of the indigenous population in the workforce is above all fundamental to the much needed convergence of socio-economic outcomes toward the rest of the population. However the indigenous population are one of the few rapidly
14
growing sub groups in the workforce age groups and are often located in areas of labour shortage. Hence while social justice considerations must remain dominant in “closing the gap” there are real potential benefits for the Australia workforce through a more effective engagement of the indigenous population.
15
REFERENCES Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 2008. Australian Social Trends 2008, Catalogue No. 4102.0, ABS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC). Immigration Update, various issues, AGPS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC). Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues, AGPS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC), 2010.
Population Flows:
Immigration Aspects 2008-09, AGPS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA). Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics, various issues, AGPS, Canberra. Fix, M., Papademetriou, D.G., Batalova, J., Terrazas, A., Lin, S. and Mitteldtadt, M., 2009. Migration and the Global Recession, A Report Commissioned by the BBC World Service, Migration Policy Institute. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD), 2009.
International Migration Outlook 2009, OECD. Productivity Commission, 2010.
Population and Migration: Understanding the
Numbers. Internal Working Document. World Bank, 2006.
Global Economic Prospects 2006. Economic Implications of
Remittances and Migration, World Bank, Washington, DC.
Paper prepared for Skills Australia/ASAA Scenario Development Forum, Sydney 7th February 2011
1
INTRODUCTION Demographic, social and cultural drivers of change in the Australian workforce over the next 15 years can be anticipated with varying degrees of certainty. For example some aspects of demographic change are highly predictable. Projecting the numbers of Australians in the 50+ age groups in 2025 is by no means a trivial exercise but they can be projected with a high degree of certainty.
On the other hand
anticipating future numbers in the younger workforce ages is more problematical since it will be considerably influenced by migration, permanent and temporary. While Australia’s future workforce will be shaped predominantly by developments within Australia it is important at the outset to make a few comments about the global context. Figure 1 shows that 2010 marked a significant turning point from a workforce perspective. In 2010 there was a peaking of the numbers of persons
Figure 1: Source:
Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates World Bank, 2006
2
in the 15-64 age groups in high income countries. Henceforth they will decline – by 20 million by 2020. On the other hand the numbers in low income countries are not only six times more numerous but their numbers will continue to increase. Secondly it is important to note that international migration continues to increase rapidly in scale and complexity despite the effects of the Global Financial Crisis (OECD 2009, Fix, et al. 2009).
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS Ageing Ageing represents the most significant demographic challenge facing high income countries like Australia. Figure 2 depicts the Australian contemporary age structure and the bulge made up by baby boomers is apparent. The group born in the high fertility postwar years make up 27.5 percent of the Australian population and 41.8 percent of the workforce. They begin to pass the 65 years of age threshold in 2011 and are already beginning to leave the workforce in increasing numbers. It is important to note in Figure 2 that there is a hollowing in the age pyramid under age 20 although recent fertility increase is already apparent. Nevertheless for several years during the 2011-2026 period there will be fewer Australian entering the workforce ages than the year before. The impacts of ageing on the Australian workforce over the next 15 years can be summarised as follows:
A slowdown in net increases in the workforce due to increasing numbers retiring and fewer young people ageing into the workforce age group. These trends can be offset to some degree by increasing age and retirement and increasing participation rates in the 15-64 age groups as well as by migration.
3
An ageing within the workforce influencing the balance of younger recently trained workers and older more experienced workers.
There are substantial variations between different sectors in these two impacts because of wide differences in the representation of baby boomers across sectors.
Figure 2: Source:
Australia: Age-Sex Structure of the Population, June 2009 ABS Estimated Resident Population data
100
90
80
Females
Males 70
60 Baby Boomers
Age
50
40 First echochildren of baby boomers
30
20 Second echo? Grandchildren of baby boomers
10
0 200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Persons
International Migration International migration is the major determinant of differences in the anticipated rate of growth of the working age population in Australia over the next 15 years. This can be demonstrated by comparing the projections of the population aged 15-64 made by the ABS in its 2005 and 2008 projections in Table 1. It will be noted that while the 2005 series projected only modest growth of the workforce age groups the projections for 2008 were of significant annual increases. The difference is almost entirely due to
4
the different net migration assumptions applied. For many European and a few Asian countries all net increase in the workforce age group is due to net migration and net migration will be an increasingly important contributor to the growth of Australian workforce ages between 2011 and 2026.
Table 1: Source:
Australia: Projected Growth Rates of the Population by Age, 2006-2031 ABS 2005 and 2008 Projections, Series B
Age Group 0-14 15-24 25-64 65+ Total
2006-11 -0.07 0.52 1.15 3.00 1.09
2005 2008 2011-21 2021-31 2006-11 2011-21 Percent Growth Per Annum 0.19 0.27 0.77 2.20 -0.06 0.16 1.15 0.73 0.67 0.34 1.52 2.28 3.50 2.60 2.98 3.49 0.96 0.77 1.52 1.39
2021-31 1.48 2.10 1.64 2.69 1.17
The contribution of immigration to future workforce change in Australia needs to consider a number of elements.
The balance between permanent settlement and temporary migration. Since the mid 1990s Australia has greatly increased the numbers of temporary immigrants allowed to work. These are almost all skilled workers. Not enough is known of their role in the workforce but it is likely they will be of increasing significance over the 2011-2026 period. Currently while permanent immigration is closely determined by government, temporary migration is market driven. Figure 3 shows the increasing importance of temporary migration in
contributing to Australia’s population through Net Overseas Migration (NOM).
5
Permanent and Temporary Components of Net Overseas Migrationa, 1983-2008 Productivity Commission, 2010, 30
Figure 3: Source: 300
250
Persons ('000)
200
150
Temporary Permanent
100
50
2007-08
200 6-07
2005-0 6
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-2000
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91
1989-90
1988-89
1987-88
1986-87
1985-86
1984-85
1983-84
1982-83
0
Year a
For NOM outcomes prior to 2004-05, ABS NOM data do not allow a decomposition of NOM into the temporary and permanent components. For the period 1983–2004, ABS NOM figures were combined with DIAC data on overseas arrivals and departures (OAD). The permanent component was calculated as the net of settler arrivals and permanent departures presented in OAD data. The temporary component was assumed to be the net of the ABS NOM figure and the permanent component. For NOM outcomes after 2004-05, ABS data was used.
The balance between different visa categories. Skilled migration has increased its relative significance in the settlement migration programme as is evident in Figure 4.
6
Figure 4:
Australia: Migration Program Outcomes by Stream, 1989-90 to 200809 DIAC, Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues
Source: 120,000 100,000
Number
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
2008-09
2006-07
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
1986-87
1984-85
1982-83
1980-81
1978-79
1976-77
0
Year Family
Skill
Special Eligibility
Humantiarian
Note: Data prior to 1986-87 for off-shore only. Special Eligibility not included prior to 1982-3.
The role of the State Specific and Regional Migration Programme in meeting the skill/labour needs of particular regions or states.
The extent of migration from New Zealand to Australia.
Policy development in both permanent and temporary migration especially relating to selection criteria.
The nexus between temporary and permanent migration.
The extent of return migration of Australian’s living and working overseas.
The continuing effects of the Global Financial Crisis on permanent and temporary migration to Australia.
The extent of emigration of workers from Australia. Figure 5 shows each year there has been a steady increase of permanent departures of both the Australian and overseas-born populations. In 2009-10 they reached record levels of 42,570
7
and 43,707 respectively. The emigration is more selective of skilled workers than immigration although the difference has narrowed over the last 15 years.
Figure 5:
Permanent Departures of Australia-Born and Overseas-Born Persons from Australia, 1959-60 to 2008-09 DIMIA, Australian Immigration Consolidated Statistics and DIMA Immigration Update, various issues
Source:
90,000 80,000 70,000
Persons
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
Australia-born
2007-08
2005-06
2003-04
2001-02
1997-98
1999-2000
Year
1995-96
1993-94
1991-92
1989-90
1987-88
1985-86
1983-84
1981-82
1979-80
1977-78
1975-76
1973-74
1971-72
1969-70
1967-68
1965-66
1963-64
1961-62
1959-60
0
Overseas-born
Between 2004 and 2009 around 40 percent of job growth in Australia was of overseas born workers – the number of overseas-born workers increased by 17 percent compared with 9 percent for the Australia-born (DIAC 2010, 103).
Other Demographic Factors There are a number of other demographic factors which may have impinged on Australia’s workforce development over the next 15 years.
Changing role of women. One of the most consistent trends in the Australian workforce over recent years has been the increasing proportion that women
8
make up of the total workforce. There is still significant scope to increase this participation.
Fertility. Fertility has a substantial effect on the growth of the workforce in the longer term. Fertility trends over the next fifteen years will translate into an effect on the workforce numbers after 2026 but the increase in fertility between 2002 and 2008 will influence workforce numbers late in the 2011-2026 period. Policies toward fertility may impinge on female participation in the workforce.
Internal migration impinges upon supply and demand of workers at the regional level.
Health factors are of considerable significance if there are going to be attempts to increase the age at retirement or increase labour force participation at other ages. Figure 6 shows the high incidence of overweight and obesity among Australia’s working age population. The health effects of the obesity epidemic may compromise efforts to increase workforce participation especially among baby boomers.
Figure 6: Source:
Percent of Australians Overweight or Obese by Age and Sex, 2004 ABS, 2008
9
Social Drivers
Australia has experienced massive social change over the last two decades and such dynamism will continue and impinge upon workforce development. While it is difficult to anticipate new developments some existing and emergent factors which appear to be important are as follows …
Work-life-balance.
This has become an increasingly significant element in
Australian public discourse. It appears to have struck a particular chord with Generation Y which may have implications for the way in which that group engage with the workforce.
Changing patterns of household and family formation. The increasing diversity of the way Australians group themselves into residential units may have implications for their workforce involvement.
The increasing workload of
many in their 40s and 50s, especially women, in not only working outside the home and undertaking household work but also caring for children and/or aged parents has implications for their involvement in the workforce.
What are the implications for a different balance between Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y in the workplace? While we must be careful not to stereotype such groups or exaggerate differences between them it is clear that there are important generational differences in background, experience, skills, attitudes, worth ethic, etc.
Social Inclusion. Inequality remains significant in Australian society and is often a multiple kind being exacerbated by gender, culture, ethnicity and location. Exclusion from labour markets is an important element of inequality and is the basis for wider exclusion. The current buoyant labour market, the positive outlook and near full employment situation offers the best opportunity
10
in a generation to include subgroups in the mainstream workforce that in the past have been excluded.
If ever these groups are to be engaged in the
workforce now is the time. To seize the opportunity will require innovative and different mechanisms of recruitment, training, work practice, etc. and significant cultural change among employers, unions, fellow workers, etc.
Discrimination in the labour market is another element to consider. There is evidence that this has operated to exclude older workers, women, different ethnic groups, etc. from the labour market. Achieving not only the attitudinal change among employers but also having in place the institutions and mechanisms to overcome discrimination are important. If baby boomers are to remain in the workforce longer it will require not just lifting the retirement age but also increasing retraining opportunities, ability to transition to retirement, modifying superannuation, etc.
Family Friendly Initiatives. There is increasing appreciation that initiatives which facilitate Australians, especially young women to have children as well as being significant participants in the paid workforce has strong effects on participation rates in the 20s, 30s and 40s age group. The extent to which family friendly initiatives are undertaken not only by government but also individual employers will be significant.
Cultural Drivers One of the most profound transformations in Australia since World War II has been that from an overwhelmingly Anglo-Celtic society to be one of the most culturally diverse of nations. Table 2 demonstrates a number of dimensions of diversity of the Australian population.
11
Table 2: Source:
Indicators of Australian Diversity, 2006 ABS, 2006 Census Indicator
Percent
Born overseas
22.2
Born overseas in NES country
13.8
Speaks language other than English at home
16.8
Ancestry (multi response) in a NES country
26.0
Non-Christian religion
28.0
Indigenous Population
2.3
No. of birthplace groups with 10,000 +
61
No. of birthplace groups with 1,000 +
118
No. of indigenous persons
455,027
Postwar migration has added substantial diversity to the Australian population as is evident from Figure 7 which shows the increasing significance of non British Europeans, Middle Eastern, Asian and then African groups as the postwar period
Figure 7: Source:
Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947-2009 DIMIA, Australian Immigration Consolidated Statistics; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues and DIAC unpublished data
300000
250000
Number
200000
150000
100000
50000
UK and Ireland
2006-07
2003-04
2000-01
1997-98
1994-95
1991-92
1988-89
1985-86
1982-83
1979-80
1976-77
1973-74
1970-71
1967-68
1964-65
1961-62
1958-59
1955-56
1952-53
1949-50
*1945-47
0
Year Other Europe
*July 1945 to June 1947 Note: Data from 2006-7 onwards are by region of birth
Africa
Americas
NZ and Pacific
Middle East
Asia
12
continued. There are significant challenges as well as potential advantages which this offers to the Australian labour market. Table 3 shows the labour market performance of the overseas-born and Australia-born population. Participation rates are higher than the Australia-born for those from Mainly English-Speaking backgrounds and below them for those from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds.
Table 3: Source:
Employment: Australia-born and Overseas-born DIAC 2010, p. 102
With migration undoubtedly going to contribute a higher percentage of workforce growth in 2011-2026 than in the previous fifteen years it is important to address a number of issues …
13
Research continues to show that a ‘migration-gap’ continues in the Australian workforce. If all other human capital factors are held constant – English language ability, education, workforce experience etc. – migrants continue to earn less than their Australia-born counterparts – this is especially the case of immigrants from NES and/or refugee-humanitarian backgrounds.
Despite considerable progress issues remain regarding the recognition of qualifications and experience earned outside of Australia
Despite the introduction of comprehensive anti-discrimination legislation it is clear that discrimination continues in all areas of society, especially the labour and housing markets.
There is clear evidence of some migrants being upwardly mobile even if they may enter the labour market at a lower level than their qualifications would suggest. However there is also evidence of others who get locked in to the secondary low income insecure labour market.
Migrant women often suffer particular difficulties due to lower ability to speak English, lower education and cultural factors. The Indigenous population is of particular significance to consider. While there
are measurement problems the indigenous population is estimated currently at 563,000 or 2.5 percent of the total population. However it is increasing at around double that of the total population (ABS 3238.0, 34). From the perspective of the workforce it is relevant that the population has a very young age structure and a rapidly growing workforce age population and this will continue over the 2011-2026; period. The more effective engagement of the indigenous population in the workforce is above all fundamental to the much needed convergence of socio-economic outcomes toward the rest of the population. However the indigenous population are one of the few rapidly
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growing sub groups in the workforce age groups and are often located in areas of labour shortage. Hence while social justice considerations must remain dominant in “closing the gap” there are real potential benefits for the Australia workforce through a more effective engagement of the indigenous population.
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REFERENCES Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 2008. Australian Social Trends 2008, Catalogue No. 4102.0, ABS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC). Immigration Update, various issues, AGPS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC). Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues, AGPS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC), 2010.
Population Flows:
Immigration Aspects 2008-09, AGPS, Canberra. Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA). Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics, various issues, AGPS, Canberra. Fix, M., Papademetriou, D.G., Batalova, J., Terrazas, A., Lin, S. and Mitteldtadt, M., 2009. Migration and the Global Recession, A Report Commissioned by the BBC World Service, Migration Policy Institute. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD), 2009.
International Migration Outlook 2009, OECD. Productivity Commission, 2010.
Population and Migration: Understanding the
Numbers. Internal Working Document. World Bank, 2006.
Global Economic Prospects 2006. Economic Implications of
Remittances and Migration, World Bank, Washington, DC.
