Glow Energy Underperform (16E TP Bt88.00)
Earnings Review
Close Bt85.75
Energy & Utilities November 2, 2015
Beat forecast/ Below forecast /In line
Solid core profit in 3Q15 Price Performance (%)
No growth catalysts With the company’s earnings peaking out in 2014, the absence of new capacity in the pipeline, as well as restricted capacity expansion domestically and the PPA extension of SPPs with an expected lower project IRR (due to lower contract volume to EGAT/lower negotiated tariff), we see no share price catalysts. Thus, we maintain our “Underperform” rating and roll over to the 2016E TP at Bt88/share. Reported 3Q15 NP of Bt1.98bn; core profit of Bt3.0bn (stronger YoY, QoQ)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
5.991
6.203
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
2.0%
0.6%
Reuters / Bloomberg
GLOW.BK/GLOW TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
1,462.87
Par (Bt)
10.00
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
125.00/3,521.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
100.00/43.78
52 week High / Low (Bt)
103.00/80.00
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
791.00 2.98
Estimated free float (%)
25.57
Beta
1.17
URL
www.glow.co.th
CGR
Level 4 (Certified)
Anti‐corruption
Patcharin Karsemarnuntana Analyst, no 17834
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5837
GLOW delivered 3Q15 NP of Bt1.98bn (‐14% YoY, ‐14% QoQ), largely blamed on a forex loss of Bt1.0bn. Meanwhile, it registered stronger core profit of Bt3.0bn in 3Q15 (+32% YoY, +12% QoQ), mainly attributable to 1) larger electricity and steam sales, particularly QoQ, with higher electricity sales under SPP contracts as well as electricity and steam sales to industrial customers as the growth catalysts; 2) a stronger GPM to 24.6%, particularly YoY, from 22% in 3Q14, with a widening margin at its cogeneration fleet, especially the gas‐fired cogeneration despite the lower Ft (with a continuing decrease by 10 satang/KWhr in Jan‐2015, followed by another 10 satang/KWhr in May‐2015 and 3 satang/KWhr in Sep‐2015); and 3) smaller interest expenses, particularly YoY (‐12% YoY), given the principal repayment. 2015E earnings forecasts maintained Given that its 9M15 core profit and NP account for 78% and 72% of our 2015E forecasts, respectively, we keep both our forecasts unchanged at Bt8.9bn. We retain our view calling for deteriorating earnings in 2015E given 1) the series of planned shutdowns of Gheco, Glow IPP and CFB#3; 2) the lower power generation at its HHPC (440GWh vs. the abnormally high 590GWh in 2014); 3) the lower tariff rate at its Glow IPP; 4) the lower fuel margin at Gheco in line with the declining coal cost; and 5) the lower margin at its coal‐fired cogeneration following the expected decrease in Ft. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
69,207 7,214 4.93 33.2% 2.76 27.74
72,991 9,139 6.25 26.7% 3.12 30.99
75,784 8,941 6.11 ‐2.2% 3.06 34.35
76,208 9,136 6.24 2.2% 3.12 37.50
75,985 8,647 5.91 ‐5.3% 2.96 40.37
FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
17.39 10.50 3.09 3.2% 18.7% 146.7%
13.73 9.26 2.77 3.6% 21.3% 111.7%
14.03 8.37 2.50 3.6% 18.7% 70.7%
13.73 7.76 2.29 3.6% 17.4% 45.6%
14.51 7.43 2.12 3.4% 15.2% 24.6%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
Figure 1: GLOW’s 3Q15 earnings result Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Extraordinary Items Gn(Ls) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit (loss) Core profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt / equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15
% YoY
% QoQ
9M14
9M15
% YoY
2014
2015E
% YoY
YTD (% of 15E)
17,721 3,901 4,756 (837) 22 (210) 47 ‐ (0) (428) 2,317 2,270 1.58 22.0 26.8 13.1 1.2 4.4 1.4 29.8 21.4
17,020 4,249 5,113 (771) 22 (228) (425) 67 (0) (418) 2,296 2,667 1.57 25.0 30.0 13.5 1.2 5.3 1.2 31.9 19.5
17,584 4,323 5,132 (738) 23 (248) (1,011) ‐ (0) (194) 1,983 2,994 1.36 24.6 29.2 11.3 1.7 5.6 1.2 31.9 17.0
(0.8) 10.8 7.9 (11.8) 4.5 18.2 nm nm (32.5) (54.7) (14.4) 31.9 (13.9)
3.3 1.8 0.4 (4.3) 4.0 8.4 138.0 (100.0) (20.6) (53.7) (13.6) 12.3 (13.4)
55,564 12,307 14,810 (2,554) 149 (814) 252 99 (0) (1,473) 7,428 7,096 5.08 22.1 26.7 13.4 1.2 4.6 1.4 29.8 22.7
49,614 11,301 13,820 (2,297) 77 (900) (1,327) 1,046 (0) (930) 6,461 6,951 4.42 22.8 27.9 13.0 1.7 4.7 1.2 31.9 18.5
(10.7) (8.2) (6.7) (10.1) (48.6) 10.6 nm 958.0 (9.7) (36.9) (13.0) (2.0) (13.0)
72,991 15,735 19,010 (3,386) 234 (1,005) (62) 99 (0) (1,697) 9,139 9,121 6.25 21.6 26.0 12.5 1.2 4.4 1.2 31.0 21.3
75,784 14,979 19,229 (2,230) 200 (1,173) ‐ ‐ ‐ (1,505) 8,941 8,941 6.11 19.8 25.4 11.8 1.6 6.1 1.0 34.3 18.7
3.8 (4.8) 1.1 (34.1) (14.5) 16.7 (100.0) (100.0) (100.0) (11.3) (2.2) (2.0) (2.2)
65.5 75.4 71.9 103.0 38.4 76.8 nm nm nm 61.8 72.3 77.7 72.3
Source: KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, TFG, BRR. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL, ORI, SCI, SR.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
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