Some Perspective on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today's ...

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Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment 9th Annual Governor's Conference on Agricultural Trade Dr. J. B. Penn, Chief Economist | March 7th, 2017

Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations

Global food and agriculture Introduction

• Past 15 years unprecedented for global food/agriculture: • New price, income, other records – unparalleled prosperity. • Global grain consumption rose 31%; area 6%; yields 25%; trade 70%.

• Global food security improved – hunger and malnutrition reduced 27%. • Spurred investment, innovation, shifted policy attention nationally and globally. • Confluence of drivers; population and incomes growth; urbanization; biofuels. • Growth era fading – a “new market reality” emerging – makes trade even more vitally important.

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Agriculture and global challenges

Population growth

Limited arable land and water / climate change / social constraints

Improving diets enabled by higher income

Rural to urban migration

21st Century Challenge: Sustainably produce enough food, feed, and fiber from the same or fewer resources to fully meet needs.

Global agriculture tailwinds still robust GDP growth World

Advanced

10

Emerging

8

8 Billions

6

4 2

Urbanization 8 6 4 2 0

4

Source: IMF, 2017; United Nations, 2014 and 2015

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2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

+6%

-1% +37% +54%

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

Population distribution +3%

1960

1990

1980

1970

1960

0

Urban Population Rural Population

1950

Billions

6

1950

2021

2019

2017

2015

2010

2005

-4

2000

-2

Less developed regions (excluding LDCs) Least developed countries More developed regions

2

0

1998

Annual % Change

10

Population growth

World food flows Net interregional trade NoAmer

SoAmer

BlkSea

Australia

CentAmer

SSAfrica

Europe

MENA

Asia

250 200 150

Importers more people than land

100

MMT

50 0 -50 -100

Exporters more land than people

-150 -200 -250 1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

Source: UN FAO, USDA, GTIS Global Trade Atlas

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1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2019

Global food security

Food surplus and deficit countries Food Surplus Food Deficit

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), December 2015

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The global challenge: to ensure there is no productivity gap Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index Required Rate Current Rate

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

• Global food production must increase at least 70% by 2050. • Little additional land available, less water, climate change, societal constraints. • Investment in agriculture must increase 50% by 2050 to meet required productivity increase.

Source: USDA ERS, 2014; GHI, 2015

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2050

Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations

Global grains production increasingly exported

Global production exported, %

16

14

12

10

8

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

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2016/17F

2010/11

2000/01

1990/91

1980/81

1970/71

1960/61

6

Global oilseeds production increasingly exported

Global production exported, %

30

25

20

15

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

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2016/17F

2010/11

2000/01

1990/91

1980/81

1970/71

1960/61

10

Global livestock products increasingly exported

Global production exported, %

18

Beef and veal

Pork

Poultry (broilers)

14

10

6

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

12 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017

2016F

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

2

Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations

Importance of trade to U.S. agriculture • Foreign sales ($135 B) comprise 38% of total sales – output from ~1 of every 3 acres

• Ag sector trade balance (2014-16): $26 B • Exports (%) of selected products: • • • • •

Cotton

75

Soybeans

48

Wheat

44

Corn

15

Specialty crops

75

• Top 3 markets account for: • • • •

Soybean sales

69%

Pork

48

Corn

28

Beef

27

• 97% of global population growth to 2050 outside the U.S.

• U.S. ag sector annual productivity growth: •

1948 – 2013: 1.5%

• Top U.S. ag export markets (% of total): • • • •

China

$25 B

17%

Canada

24

16

Mexico

19

12

Total

$58

45%

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Source: USDA ERS, December 2015 & February 2017; USDA FAS GATS portal, U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data, February 2017

Structural changes occurring incrementally Importantly affect analysis and forecasting accuracy

• Regional competitiveness in food production shifting

players

• Farmgate (technology, regs) • Farmgate to port (infrastructure) • Trade policy – market access

• National sectoral policies changing • Advanced economies vs. emerging market



• Technology – disparate convergence, new

economies – amount and form of subsidies Ag sector development – emphasis and investment

• Currency value effects • Dollar value, investment flows

• • • •

Precision farming/data/analytics Genetics – GMO, CRISPR Soil health Human health/nutrition/agriculture

• Consumer preferences/perceptions about agriculture and food

• Production practices • Sustainability • Fiat vs. incentive

• Climate change (weather pattern shifts)

• Trade – rising protectionism (U.S. posture)

Global grain/oilseed market shares shifting An example of subtle structural shift

Major grain exporters Market shares shifting 60

1980s Avg.

1990s Avg.

2000s Avg.

2010s Avg.

%

40 20 0 United States

European Union

Canada

Australia

Rest of World

10

%

1980s Avg.

1990s Avg.

2000s Avg.

2010s Avg.

5

0 Argentina

Brazil

China

India

Source: USDA FAS, November 2016

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Kazakhstan

Russia

Thailand

Ukraine

Vietnam

U.S. dominant role declining 400

US Exports

World Exports

US % of World

60

300

200

%

MMT

40

20 100

0

Source: USDA FAS, November 2016

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0

Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations

Global grains and oilseeds Production and consumption 3,500

Production

Consumption

MMT

3,000

? 2,500

2,000

1,500

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

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Global grains

Stocks to use: 89 days (vs. 62 days) 700

Ending Stocks

S/U Ratio

30

600

400

10 Yr. Avg. = 21%

300 200

25

20

15

100 0

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

20 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017

10

(%)

MMT

500

Global grains (less China)

Stocks to use: 61 days (vs. 54 days) 700

Ending Stocks

S/U Ratio

30

600 25

400

300

10 Yr. Avg. = 17%

200

20

15

100 0

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

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10

(%)

MMT

500

U.S. corn supply and use Corn

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17 Fcst.

2017/18 Fcst.

February

February

Million Acres Area Planted

97.3

95.4

90.6

88.0

94.0

90.0

Area Harvested

87.4

87.5

83.1

80.8

86.7

82.4

171.0

168.4

174.6

170.7

Bushels Yield per Harvested Acre

123.1

158.1

Million Bushels Beginning Stocks (9/1)

989

821

1,232

1,731

1,737

2,320

10,755

13,829

14,216

13,602

15,148

14,065

160

36

32

67

55

50

11,904

14,686

15,479

15,401

16,940

16,435

Feed & Residual

4,315

5,040

5,280

5,131

5,600

5,450

Food, Seed & Industrial

6,038

6,493

6,601

6,635

6,795

6,870

4,641

5,124

5,200

5,206

5,350

5,400

10,353

11,534

11,881

11,766

12,395

12,320

730

1,920

1,867

1,898

2,225

1,900

11,083

13,454

13,748

13,664

14,620

14,220

821

1,232

1,731

1,737

2,320

2,215

7.4

9.2

12.6

12.7

15.9

15.6

6.89

4.46

3.70

3.61

3.40

3.50

Production Imports Total Supply

Ethanol for Fuel Total Domestic Use Exports Total Use

Ending Stocks (8/31) S/U (%) Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)

Source: USDA WASDE, February 2017; USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017, Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2017, 24 February 2017

What to watch: longer-term The Tailwinds (still with us): • Global/regional macro performance • Population growth – regionally • Urbanization

Trade: • Rising protectionism • U.S. trade posture/leadership

Technology: • All new technologies driving

Regional competitiveness shifts: • Investment flows • Trade impacts

productivity • Big data/precision farming/IoT/Cloud • GMOs/CRISPR • Other (microbiome, soils health, etc.)

Policy/Regulatory: • China ag/food policy • EM and developing countries subsidies

Nationalism – future of globalization

Consumer/public perceptions/preferences: • Carbon footprinting/resource efficiency/sustainability

Environmental regulations Geopolitical disruptions: • Hamper investment (productivity/infrastructure) • Disrupt trade/capital flows

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Infrastructure investment: longer-term • Competitiveness of U.S. ag exports relies, in part, on efficient, low-cost infrastructure – also important in keeping consumer food costs low.

• Agricultural products the largest sector user of freight relying on multiple modes (rail, barge, truck).

• Broadband access critical for digital age agriculture.

• Trump infrastructure proposal: $1T over 10 years. (How much? On what— traditional, next gen? How funded? How soon?)

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U.S. production capacity growth continues – access to growth markets critical 600

Production, MMT

500 400 Grains

300

Oilseeds Livestock meat

200

Poultry meat

100

Source: USDA FAS, February 2017

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2016/17

2010/11

2000/01

1990/91

1980/81

1970/71

1960/61

0

Continued sector growth/financial health requires expanding foreign market access

• Continuous productivity growth with same resource base expands sector production capacity over time.

• Without expanding market access, excess capacity emerges, sector stagnates.

• Invites greater government involvement – usually counterproductive.

26 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017

Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations

Summary observations

• Humanity’s greatest challenge: feeding 9.7 B people sustainably in 2050. Continued expansion of food/agriculture trade is critical to global food security. Population concentrations and food-surplus exporting regions will not be coincident.

• U.S. ag sector production capacity continues to grow over time – perhaps even faster in the future with converging new technologies. Expanding access to external growth markets is critical to maintaining a vibrant ag sector.

• Maintaining competitiveness in world markets – on-farm technological advances, efficient infrastructure essential. 28 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017

Thank you!