Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment 9th Annual Governor's Conference on Agricultural Trade Dr. J. B. Penn, Chief Economist | March 7th, 2017
Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations
Global food and agriculture Introduction
• Past 15 years unprecedented for global food/agriculture: • New price, income, other records – unparalleled prosperity. • Global grain consumption rose 31%; area 6%; yields 25%; trade 70%.
• Global food security improved – hunger and malnutrition reduced 27%. • Spurred investment, innovation, shifted policy attention nationally and globally. • Confluence of drivers; population and incomes growth; urbanization; biofuels. • Growth era fading – a “new market reality” emerging – makes trade even more vitally important.
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Agriculture and global challenges
Population growth
Limited arable land and water / climate change / social constraints
Improving diets enabled by higher income
Rural to urban migration
21st Century Challenge: Sustainably produce enough food, feed, and fiber from the same or fewer resources to fully meet needs.
Global agriculture tailwinds still robust GDP growth World
Advanced
10
Emerging
8
8 Billions
6
4 2
Urbanization 8 6 4 2 0
4
Source: IMF, 2017; United Nations, 2014 and 2015
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2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
+6%
-1% +37% +54%
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
Population distribution +3%
1960
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
Urban Population Rural Population
1950
Billions
6
1950
2021
2019
2017
2015
2010
2005
-4
2000
-2
Less developed regions (excluding LDCs) Least developed countries More developed regions
2
0
1998
Annual % Change
10
Population growth
World food flows Net interregional trade NoAmer
SoAmer
BlkSea
Australia
CentAmer
SSAfrica
Europe
MENA
Asia
250 200 150
Importers more people than land
100
MMT
50 0 -50 -100
Exporters more land than people
-150 -200 -250 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: UN FAO, USDA, GTIS Global Trade Atlas
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1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2019
Global food security
Food surplus and deficit countries Food Surplus Food Deficit
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), December 2015
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The global challenge: to ensure there is no productivity gap Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Index Required Rate Current Rate
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
• Global food production must increase at least 70% by 2050. • Little additional land available, less water, climate change, societal constraints. • Investment in agriculture must increase 50% by 2050 to meet required productivity increase.
Source: USDA ERS, 2014; GHI, 2015
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2050
Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations
Global grains production increasingly exported
Global production exported, %
16
14
12
10
8
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
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2016/17F
2010/11
2000/01
1990/91
1980/81
1970/71
1960/61
6
Global oilseeds production increasingly exported
Global production exported, %
30
25
20
15
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
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2016/17F
2010/11
2000/01
1990/91
1980/81
1970/71
1960/61
10
Global livestock products increasingly exported
Global production exported, %
18
Beef and veal
Pork
Poultry (broilers)
14
10
6
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
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2016F
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
2
Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations
Importance of trade to U.S. agriculture • Foreign sales ($135 B) comprise 38% of total sales – output from ~1 of every 3 acres
• Ag sector trade balance (2014-16): $26 B • Exports (%) of selected products: • • • • •
Cotton
75
Soybeans
48
Wheat
44
Corn
15
Specialty crops
75
• Top 3 markets account for: • • • •
Soybean sales
69%
Pork
48
Corn
28
Beef
27
• 97% of global population growth to 2050 outside the U.S.
• U.S. ag sector annual productivity growth: •
1948 – 2013: 1.5%
• Top U.S. ag export markets (% of total): • • • •
China
$25 B
17%
Canada
24
16
Mexico
19
12
Total
$58
45%
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Source: USDA ERS, December 2015 & February 2017; USDA FAS GATS portal, U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data, February 2017
Structural changes occurring incrementally Importantly affect analysis and forecasting accuracy
• Regional competitiveness in food production shifting
players
• Farmgate (technology, regs) • Farmgate to port (infrastructure) • Trade policy – market access
• National sectoral policies changing • Advanced economies vs. emerging market
•
• Technology – disparate convergence, new
economies – amount and form of subsidies Ag sector development – emphasis and investment
• Currency value effects • Dollar value, investment flows
• • • •
Precision farming/data/analytics Genetics – GMO, CRISPR Soil health Human health/nutrition/agriculture
• Consumer preferences/perceptions about agriculture and food
• Production practices • Sustainability • Fiat vs. incentive
• Climate change (weather pattern shifts)
• Trade – rising protectionism (U.S. posture)
Global grain/oilseed market shares shifting An example of subtle structural shift
Major grain exporters Market shares shifting 60
1980s Avg.
1990s Avg.
2000s Avg.
2010s Avg.
%
40 20 0 United States
European Union
Canada
Australia
Rest of World
10
%
1980s Avg.
1990s Avg.
2000s Avg.
2010s Avg.
5
0 Argentina
Brazil
China
India
Source: USDA FAS, November 2016
16 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017
Kazakhstan
Russia
Thailand
Ukraine
Vietnam
U.S. dominant role declining 400
US Exports
World Exports
US % of World
60
300
200
%
MMT
40
20 100
0
Source: USDA FAS, November 2016
17 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017
0
Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations
Global grains and oilseeds Production and consumption 3,500
Production
Consumption
MMT
3,000
? 2,500
2,000
1,500
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
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Global grains
Stocks to use: 89 days (vs. 62 days) 700
Ending Stocks
S/U Ratio
30
600
400
10 Yr. Avg. = 21%
300 200
25
20
15
100 0
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
20 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017
10
(%)
MMT
500
Global grains (less China)
Stocks to use: 61 days (vs. 54 days) 700
Ending Stocks
S/U Ratio
30
600 25
400
300
10 Yr. Avg. = 17%
200
20
15
100 0
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
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10
(%)
MMT
500
U.S. corn supply and use Corn
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17 Fcst.
2017/18 Fcst.
February
February
Million Acres Area Planted
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Area Harvested
87.4
87.5
83.1
80.8
86.7
82.4
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Bushels Yield per Harvested Acre
123.1
158.1
Million Bushels Beginning Stocks (9/1)
989
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
160
36
32
67
55
50
11,904
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
4,315
5,040
5,280
5,131
5,600
5,450
Food, Seed & Industrial
6,038
6,493
6,601
6,635
6,795
6,870
4,641
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,350
5,400
10,353
11,534
11,881
11,766
12,395
12,320
730
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
11,083
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
2,215
7.4
9.2
12.6
12.7
15.9
15.6
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Production Imports Total Supply
Ethanol for Fuel Total Domestic Use Exports Total Use
Ending Stocks (8/31) S/U (%) Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)
Source: USDA WASDE, February 2017; USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum 2017, Grains and Oilseeds Outlook for 2017, 24 February 2017
What to watch: longer-term The Tailwinds (still with us): • Global/regional macro performance • Population growth – regionally • Urbanization
Trade: • Rising protectionism • U.S. trade posture/leadership
Technology: • All new technologies driving
Regional competitiveness shifts: • Investment flows • Trade impacts
productivity • Big data/precision farming/IoT/Cloud • GMOs/CRISPR • Other (microbiome, soils health, etc.)
Policy/Regulatory: • China ag/food policy • EM and developing countries subsidies
Nationalism – future of globalization
Consumer/public perceptions/preferences: • Carbon footprinting/resource efficiency/sustainability
Environmental regulations Geopolitical disruptions: • Hamper investment (productivity/infrastructure) • Disrupt trade/capital flows
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Infrastructure investment: longer-term • Competitiveness of U.S. ag exports relies, in part, on efficient, low-cost infrastructure – also important in keeping consumer food costs low.
• Agricultural products the largest sector user of freight relying on multiple modes (rail, barge, truck).
• Broadband access critical for digital age agriculture.
• Trump infrastructure proposal: $1T over 10 years. (How much? On what— traditional, next gen? How funded? How soon?)
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U.S. production capacity growth continues – access to growth markets critical 600
Production, MMT
500 400 Grains
300
Oilseeds Livestock meat
200
Poultry meat
100
Source: USDA FAS, February 2017
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2016/17
2010/11
2000/01
1990/91
1980/81
1970/71
1960/61
0
Continued sector growth/financial health requires expanding foreign market access
• Continuous productivity growth with same resource base expands sector production capacity over time.
• Without expanding market access, excess capacity emerges, sector stagnates.
• Invites greater government involvement – usually counterproductive.
26 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017
Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment Importance of trade to global food security Recent global trade trends (in food and ag) Trade and American agriculture: context and trends A look ahead: the nearterm and beyond Summary observations
Summary observations
• Humanity’s greatest challenge: feeding 9.7 B people sustainably in 2050. Continued expansion of food/agriculture trade is critical to global food security. Population concentrations and food-surplus exporting regions will not be coincident.
• U.S. ag sector production capacity continues to grow over time – perhaps even faster in the future with converging new technologies. Expanding access to external growth markets is critical to maintaining a vibrant ag sector.
• Maintaining competitiveness in world markets – on-farm technological advances, efficient infrastructure essential. 28 | Some Perspectives on Food and Agricultural Trade in Today’s Environment | March 7 th , 2017
Thank you!