south eastman
Chapter 3: Population Growth South Eastman is rapidly changing. Unlike the rest of Manitoba, the region has seen marked population growth over the past five years. This chapter describes the increase in the South Eastman population and the factors contributing to rapid growth.
Key Findings: •
In the five years between June 1998 and June 2003, the South Eastman population increased 8.1%, greatly outstripping growth in all other regions of the province. South Eastman’s 1.6% annual growth rate exceeded Manitoba’s rate of growth over the whole five year period.
•
While increases have occurred across all district populations, the Central District (City of Steinbach and R.M. of Hanover) has seen extraordinary growth since 1998 – 14.4%, or 2.9% per year.
•
South Eastman’s population growth results in part from natural increase and high fertility rates. However, the major contributor to population increase since 1998 is immigration.
•
Over the past five years, around 5,300 new Manitobans have chosen to settle in South Eastman. In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 19% of all immigrants to Manitoba. Forty per cent of all immigrants were under 19 years of age.
•
A major flow of overseas immigrants into South Eastman began in 1999, resulting in almost 2,900 new overseas residents by 2003. Numbers are steadily rising, with 2003 showing 31% increase over the previous year.
•
More than 80% of overseas immigrants have entered under the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program. In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 21% of immigrants entering Manitoba under the program and two-thirds of provincial nominees locating outside Winnipeg. Fifty per cent of overseas immigrants are under 19 years of age.
•
Almost 80% of overseas immigrants arriving in South Eastman have settled in the Central District, contributing substantially to the district’s marked five-year population increase.
•
Other areas of South Eastman are also experiencing the effects of immigration, including the RMs of La Broquerie, Piney, and Stuartburn and the Town of Niverville.
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POPULATION GROWTH SINCE 1998 In the five years between June 1998 and June 2003, the South Eastman population increased 8.1%, greatly outstripping growth in all other regions of the province. In fact, South Eastman’s 1.6% annual growth rate exceeded Manitoba’s rate of growth over the whole five year period.
Population Change 1998 - 2003 Manitoba Regional Health Authorities
8.1%
2.6% 1.9%
2.2%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3% 0.4%
Winnipeg
Brandon
North Eastman
South Eastman
Interlake
Central
Assiniboine
Parkland
-2.1%
Norman
-1.7%
Burntwood
Churchill
Manitoba
-2.0%
-3.5% Manitoba Health 2004
While increases have occurred across all district populations, the Central District has seen extraordinary population growth since 1998 – 14.4%, or 2.9% per year.
South Eastman District Population Increase 1998-2003
14.4%
4.7%
4.2%
2.9%
Western District
Northern District
Central District
Southern District
Manitoba Health 2004
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PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH In 1998, Manitoba Health commissioned the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics to project changes in provincial and regional health authority populations 1998 through 2025. The report predicted 38% increase in the South Eastman population by 2025, a level matched only by Burntwood/Churchill. In contrast, the overall Manitoba population is projected to increase only 4.8%, while the population of Winnipeg is expected to decline 5.5%.
Projected Population Change 1998-2025 Manitoba Regional Health Authorities 44.1% 38.2%
26.0% 19.6% 14.5%
12.6%
8.4%
6.1%
r
Ea st m an
rn t/C hu
N or th
Bu
N or m an
Pa rk la nd
W
M
te
2.7%
So ut h
M ar qu et
tra l C en
e te rla k In
do n
So ut h
-5.5%
Br an
Ea st m an
in n
ip eg
3.9%
W
M
an ito ba
4.8%
Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 1999
FERTILITY South Eastman’s population growth has resulted in part from natural increase, with fertility rates consistently above Manitoba averages.
Fertility Rates Manitoba and South Eastman 1997/98-2002/03 Manitoba South Eastman
Live Births Per 1,000 Women Age 15-44
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
Manitoba Health 1998-2003
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In the five years 1999-2003, the number of births annually in South Eastman increased 12%. In contrast, overall Manitoba births fell 6% between 1998/99 and 2002/03.
South Eastman Births 1999-2003
716
691
1999
2000
756
769
773
2001
2002
2003
South Eastman RHA 1999-2004
AGE GROUP CHANGES Since 1998, South Eastman has seen population growth well above provincial levels across all age groups, including highly vulnerable populations at the extremes of age.
Population Change By Age Group Manitoba and South Eastman 1998-2003 Manitoba South Eastman
11%
10% 7%
6% 4%
3% 1%
1%
-4% -9% Under 15 years
15-64 years
65+ years
0-4 years
75+ years
Manitoba Health 1998-2004
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IMMIGRATION The major contributor to South Eastman’s population growth since 1998 is immigration, with unprecedented movement into the region occurring 1999-2003. Between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2003, Manitoba Health issued 5,283 new registrations to individuals entering Manitoba and choosing to settle in South Eastman. Of these new arrivals, 2,225 came from other Canadian provinces, 170 from the United States, and 2,888 from overseas. In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 19% of all immigrants to Manitoba. Forty per cent of all immigrants were under 19 years of age.
age 19+ age 0-18
South Eastman Total Immigration By Age Group 1999-2003 1255 1083
1077
1052 687
816 625
646
625
458
431
427
2000
2001
2002
505
311
1999
586
2003
Manitoba Health 2004
Immigration From Overseas A major flow of overseas immigrants into South Eastman began in 1999 and, by 2003, totalled 2,888. Numbers are steadily rising – from 357 in 1999 to 787 in 2003 – with 2003 showing 31% increase over the previous year. More than 80% of overseas immigrants have entered under the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program.‡ In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 21% of immigrants entering Manitoba under the program and two-thirds of provincial nominees locating outside Winnipeg.¶
South Eastman Overseas Immigrants 1999-2003 +31%
+57%
+4%
+3%
787 562
582
600
2000
2001
2002
357
1999
2003
Manitoba Health 2004
‡ ¶
Steinbach and District Immigrant Settlement Program 2004. Manitoba Immigration Doubles Since 1998. Government of Manitoba News Release January 20, 2004
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Impacts of Immigration on Communities Almost 80% of overseas immigrants arriving in South Eastman have settled in the Central District (City of Steinbach and R.M. of Hanover), contributing substantially to the district’s 14.4% population increase over the past five years. The number of children and youth under 19 in Central District has increased 14%, to over 8,000, since 1998. Student enrolment in Hanover School Division, which serves Central District, increased 12% overall between September 1998 and September 2003 (from 5,860 to 6,589 students) and by 21% in schools with elementary grades (from 2,697 to 3,277 students). In September 1998, Hanover School Division registered 23 English Second Language (ESL) students; by September 2003, 584 funded ESL students were registered, including 17% of students in each grade kindergarten through grade 2 across the division. Student ESL funding is time limited, as follows: kindergarten students, 3 years; grades 1 to 8, 2 years; grades 9-12, 3 years. In total, Hanover School Division has received funding for 1,132 ESL students since 1998.
South Eastman Oversease Immigrants 1999-2003 Place Of Residence On Entry
Southern District, 4%
Western District, 10%
Northern District, 9%
Central District, 77%
Manitoba Health 2004
Other areas of South Eastman are also experiencing the effects of immigration. For example, 203 overseas immigrants have settled in the Town of Niverville. Over time, there has been considerable movement of immigrant families from Central District to the neighbouring municipalities of La Broquerie, Piney, and Stuartburn. In 2003/04, both Arborgate School (La Broquerie) and Shevchenko School (Vita) record that 23% of students kindergarten – grade 2 are registered for ESL funding.
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RESOURCES Activity Report 2003. Steinbach, MB: Steinbach and District Immigrant Settlement Program, 2004. ESL Funded Students 2003/04. South Eastman School Divisions, 2004. Fertility Rates Manitoba and South Eastman 1997/98-2002/03. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 2004. Immigration In/Out South Eastman 1999-2003. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 2004. Manitoba Immigration Doubles Since 1998. Winnipeg, MB: Government of Manitoba News Release January 20, 2004. Manitoba Population Report June 1, 1998. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 1998. Manitoba Population Report June 1, 2003. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 2003. Population Projections 1998-2025 Manitoba RHAs. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, 1999. South Eastman: Live Birth Reports By Year. La Broquerie, MB: South Eastman RHA, 2004
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Chapter 4: Population Growth and Age Groups The population of South Eastman has increased dramatically – by 8.1% between 1998 and 2003. This chapter examines changes by age group in the South Eastman population since 1998, with comparisons across Manitoba and among regional districts and communities
Key Findings: •
In contrast to other Manitoba RHAs, South Eastman’s population has increased across virtually all age groups. South Eastman’s age group increases reflect the combined effects of high birth rate, increasing in-migration of young families, and population aging.
•
In all cases, South Eastman age group increases are well above Manitoba averages.
•
−
South Eastman experienced 4% increase in children under age 15, while Manitoba as a whole experienced 4% decline.
−
South Eastman youth age 15-24 increased 11%, compared to only 3% across Manitoba.
−
The increase among South Eastman residents age 40-49 more than doubled the provincial rate – 18% versus 8%.
−
The South Eastman population 50-64 years showed 20% increase, compared to 17% across Manitoba.
−
South Eastman saw 1.9% increase in the age group 65-74. Across Manitoba, this age group declined 4%.
−
South Eastman’s population of vulnerable elderly age 75+ increased 11%, compared to 7% in the general Manitoba population.
Within South Eastman, there is differentiation. All communities have seen age group changes over the past five years. However, some have been profoundly affected by population aging, some have experienced marked increases in children, youth, and young adults, and others show striking evidence of growth across all age groups.
For South Eastman, population growth forecasts increasing health care needs across the whole spectrum of preventive, treatment, and support services. Service development must be tailored to meet the specific age group needs of diverse regional communities.
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POPULATION AGE GROUP CHANGES 1998-2003 Between 1998 and 2003, Manitoba experienced a modest 1.5% population increase. At the same time, there was a marked rise in the number of residents age 40 years and over, illustrating the trend to population aging common to all Canadian provinces. This increase was offset by a decline in the number of provincial residents under 40 years of age. In South Eastman, the picture is very different. Here, population aging has been accompanied by a rising birth rate and increasing immigration, primarily involving young families. As a result, South Eastman has experienced 8.1% population growth, with increases well above Manitoba averages in virtually all population age groups. Over the five years 1998-2003, South Eastman’s population of children under age 15 increased 4%, whereas across Manitoba this age group showed 4% decline. The region’s population of youth age 15-24 increased 11%, compared to 3% for the province overall. The population age 25-39 was the only South Eastman age group to show a decline (1%). However, across Manitoba, this age group fell 8%. Among South Eastman residents age 40-49, the five year increase more than doubled the provincial rate – 18% versus 8%. Province-wide, population increases were greatest among residents age 50-64, reflecting aging of the “baby boomer” generation. In South Eastman, this age group increased 20%, exceeding the Manitoba rate, 17%. South Eastman also experienced 6% increase in the population age 65+, compared to 1% provincially. While the increase in residents age 65-74 was lower, at 1.9%, across Manitoba this age group declined 4%. South Eastman’s population of vulnerable elderly age 75+ increased 11% – more than 2% per year – compared to 7% in the overall Manitoba population.
Population Change By Age Group South Eastman and Manitoba 1998 - 2003 South Eastman Manitoba
20% 18%
17%
11%
11% 8%
4%
7%
3%
0-14
15-24
1.9% 25-39 -1%
40-49
50-64
65-74
75+
-4%
-4% -8% Manitoba Health 1999, 2004
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MANITOBA COMPARISONS Comparing age group changes 1998-2003 across Manitoba RHAs highlights South Eastman’s unique experience. In the younger age groups below 40 years, South Eastman alone experienced growth (4%) in the under 15 year population. The region’s increase in the 15-24 age group (11%) was highest in the province. All RHAs except Burntwood showed declines in the 20-39 year age group, with South Eastman’s the smallest, at 1%. In the older age groups over 40 years, South Eastman showed the greatest increase (18%) in the 40-49 age group. The 50-69 age group increased 20%, a gain equalled only by Norman RHA. South Eastman’s 2% increase in the 65-74 population was exceeded in a number of RHAs, including Burntwood, Churchill, North Eastman, and Central. However, in the 75+ age group, South Eastman’s 11% increase surpassed growth in all other RHAs.
Population Change Age Groups 0-39 Manitoba Regional Health Authorities 1998-2003 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% South Eastman
Winnipeg
Brandon
North Eastman
Interlake
Central
0-14
Manitoba Health 1999, 2004
Assiniboine
15-24
Parkland
Norman
Burntwood
Churchill
Manitoba
25-39
Population Change Age Groups 40-75+ Manitoba Regional Health Authorities 1998-2003 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% South Eastman
Winnipeg
Manitoba Health 1999, 2004
Brandon
North Eastman
Interlake
40-49
Central
50-64
Assiniboine
65-74
Parkland
Norman
Burntwood
Churchill
Manitoba
75+
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IMPACTS ON SOUTH EASTMAN COMMUNITIES Increases across population age groups have had differing impacts on South Eastman communities. In the Central District, which saw 14% growth 1998-2003, there were substantial increases across all population age groups. Numbers of children under age 15, youth age 15-24, and adults age 25-39 increased 15%, 13%, and 6%, respectively. Increases in younger age groups were particularly marked in the City of Steinbach, with 19% increase under age 15 and 20% increase age 15-24. Central District also experienced significant growth at older ages. Numbers of adults ages 40-49, 50-64, 65-74, and 75+ increased 26%, 41%, 7%, and 11%, respectively. In the City of Steinbach, the age group 40-49 increased 32%. Among residents over 50 years of age, growth was noticeably greater in Hanover RM, where the population age 50-64 increased 49% and numbers of elderly age 75+ rose 21%. The Southern District experienced 4% overall growth 1998-2003. Characterized in the past by an aging and gradually diminishing population, the district saw 6% increase in children under age 15 and 19% increase in youth age 15-24. Growth was exceptionally strong in Stuartburn, with numbers of children and youth rising 15% and 26%, respectively, and young adults age 25-39 increasing 4%, in contrast to the decline seen in the rest of the district and in the region generally. Across the Southern District, numbers of adults age 40-49 and 50-64 rose 15% and 7%, respectively, while numbers in both the 65-74 and 75+ age groups declined, by 9% and 3%, respectively. The Western District population increased 3% between 1998 and 2003. Overall, there was little growth among younger age groups, although experiences varied widely within the district. St. Pierre-Jolys Village and Niverville Town saw 6-8% increases under age 15 and 17-22% increases age 15-24. with Niverville also showing 7% growth in the 25-39 age group. Both De Salaberry and Ritchot RMs, on the other hand, experienced declines in the under 40 population. De Salaberry RM also showed a decrease age 40-49, whereas in Ritchot, St. Pierre-Jolys, and Niverville, growth in this age group ranged 22-34%. Increases age 50-64 were seen across all district communities but were highest in St. Pierre-Jolys and Niverville, at 46% and 44%, respectively. There was universal decline in the 65-74 population but marked in-district variation with respect to the age group 75+, with St. Pierre-Jolys showing 2% decrease, De Salaberry and Ritchot showing around 10% increase, and Niverville experiencing an increase of 21%. In the Northern District, where the population increased 5% 1998-2003, overall change in age groups under 40 was also minimal. Within the district, however, Ste. Anne RM showed 15% increase under age 15, 11% increase age 15-24. and 6% increase age 25-39. All Northern District communities saw growth in the 15-24 age group, with the greatest increase (16%) occurring in La Broquerie RM. The district saw substantial population increases across all older ages. Growth greatly exceeded regional averages in Ste. Anne Town and Ste. Anne RM for the 40-40 age group and in Taché RM and Ste. Anne RM for the 50-64 age group. Whereas most South Eastman communities experienced declines in the 65-74 population, Ste. Anne RM showed 37% growth in this age group. Ste. Anne RM also showed 40% increase among residents age 75+, with similar increases occurring in Ste. Anne Town and La Broquerie RM. Overall, the data suggest evolving changes in the age structures of South Eastman planning districts. The population of South Eastman’s Southern District shows signs of becoming somewhat younger – contributions of children and youth are increasing, while proportions of adults age 65+ are declining. The reverse generally holds for the Western and Northern district populations, while the Central District population is increasing across the entire age spectrum.
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South Eastman Population Age 0-39, By Municipality and Age Group, 1998-2003.
Age Group Location
Western District
Northern District
Central District
Southern District
Municipality
Key Findings: •
In the five years between June 1998 and June 2003, the South Eastman population increased 8.1%, greatly outstripping growth in all other regions of the province. South Eastman’s 1.6% annual growth rate exceeded Manitoba’s rate of growth over the whole five year period.
•
While increases have occurred across all district populations, the Central District (City of Steinbach and R.M. of Hanover) has seen extraordinary growth since 1998 – 14.4%, or 2.9% per year.
•
South Eastman’s population growth results in part from natural increase and high fertility rates. However, the major contributor to population increase since 1998 is immigration.
•
Over the past five years, around 5,300 new Manitobans have chosen to settle in South Eastman. In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 19% of all immigrants to Manitoba. Forty per cent of all immigrants were under 19 years of age.
•
A major flow of overseas immigrants into South Eastman began in 1999, resulting in almost 2,900 new overseas residents by 2003. Numbers are steadily rising, with 2003 showing 31% increase over the previous year.
•
More than 80% of overseas immigrants have entered under the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program. In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 21% of immigrants entering Manitoba under the program and two-thirds of provincial nominees locating outside Winnipeg. Fifty per cent of overseas immigrants are under 19 years of age.
•
Almost 80% of overseas immigrants arriving in South Eastman have settled in the Central District, contributing substantially to the district’s marked five-year population increase.
•
Other areas of South Eastman are also experiencing the effects of immigration, including the RMs of La Broquerie, Piney, and Stuartburn and the Town of Niverville.
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POPULATION GROWTH SINCE 1998 In the five years between June 1998 and June 2003, the South Eastman population increased 8.1%, greatly outstripping growth in all other regions of the province. In fact, South Eastman’s 1.6% annual growth rate exceeded Manitoba’s rate of growth over the whole five year period.
Population Change 1998 - 2003 Manitoba Regional Health Authorities
8.1%
2.6% 1.9%
2.2%
1.8%
1.5%
1.3% 0.4%
Winnipeg
Brandon
North Eastman
South Eastman
Interlake
Central
Assiniboine
Parkland
-2.1%
Norman
-1.7%
Burntwood
Churchill
Manitoba
-2.0%
-3.5% Manitoba Health 2004
While increases have occurred across all district populations, the Central District has seen extraordinary population growth since 1998 – 14.4%, or 2.9% per year.
South Eastman District Population Increase 1998-2003
14.4%
4.7%
4.2%
2.9%
Western District
Northern District
Central District
Southern District
Manitoba Health 2004
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PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH In 1998, Manitoba Health commissioned the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics to project changes in provincial and regional health authority populations 1998 through 2025. The report predicted 38% increase in the South Eastman population by 2025, a level matched only by Burntwood/Churchill. In contrast, the overall Manitoba population is projected to increase only 4.8%, while the population of Winnipeg is expected to decline 5.5%.
Projected Population Change 1998-2025 Manitoba Regional Health Authorities 44.1% 38.2%
26.0% 19.6% 14.5%
12.6%
8.4%
6.1%
r
Ea st m an
rn t/C hu
N or th
Bu
N or m an
Pa rk la nd
W
M
te
2.7%
So ut h
M ar qu et
tra l C en
e te rla k In
do n
So ut h
-5.5%
Br an
Ea st m an
in n
ip eg
3.9%
W
M
an ito ba
4.8%
Manitoba Bureau of Statistics 1999
FERTILITY South Eastman’s population growth has resulted in part from natural increase, with fertility rates consistently above Manitoba averages.
Fertility Rates Manitoba and South Eastman 1997/98-2002/03 Manitoba South Eastman
Live Births Per 1,000 Women Age 15-44
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
Manitoba Health 1998-2003
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In the five years 1999-2003, the number of births annually in South Eastman increased 12%. In contrast, overall Manitoba births fell 6% between 1998/99 and 2002/03.
South Eastman Births 1999-2003
716
691
1999
2000
756
769
773
2001
2002
2003
South Eastman RHA 1999-2004
AGE GROUP CHANGES Since 1998, South Eastman has seen population growth well above provincial levels across all age groups, including highly vulnerable populations at the extremes of age.
Population Change By Age Group Manitoba and South Eastman 1998-2003 Manitoba South Eastman
11%
10% 7%
6% 4%
3% 1%
1%
-4% -9% Under 15 years
15-64 years
65+ years
0-4 years
75+ years
Manitoba Health 1998-2004
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IMMIGRATION The major contributor to South Eastman’s population growth since 1998 is immigration, with unprecedented movement into the region occurring 1999-2003. Between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2003, Manitoba Health issued 5,283 new registrations to individuals entering Manitoba and choosing to settle in South Eastman. Of these new arrivals, 2,225 came from other Canadian provinces, 170 from the United States, and 2,888 from overseas. In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 19% of all immigrants to Manitoba. Forty per cent of all immigrants were under 19 years of age.
age 19+ age 0-18
South Eastman Total Immigration By Age Group 1999-2003 1255 1083
1077
1052 687
816 625
646
625
458
431
427
2000
2001
2002
505
311
1999
586
2003
Manitoba Health 2004
Immigration From Overseas A major flow of overseas immigrants into South Eastman began in 1999 and, by 2003, totalled 2,888. Numbers are steadily rising – from 357 in 1999 to 787 in 2003 – with 2003 showing 31% increase over the previous year. More than 80% of overseas immigrants have entered under the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program.‡ In 2003, South Eastman accounted for 21% of immigrants entering Manitoba under the program and two-thirds of provincial nominees locating outside Winnipeg.¶
South Eastman Overseas Immigrants 1999-2003 +31%
+57%
+4%
+3%
787 562
582
600
2000
2001
2002
357
1999
2003
Manitoba Health 2004
‡ ¶
Steinbach and District Immigrant Settlement Program 2004. Manitoba Immigration Doubles Since 1998. Government of Manitoba News Release January 20, 2004
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Impacts of Immigration on Communities Almost 80% of overseas immigrants arriving in South Eastman have settled in the Central District (City of Steinbach and R.M. of Hanover), contributing substantially to the district’s 14.4% population increase over the past five years. The number of children and youth under 19 in Central District has increased 14%, to over 8,000, since 1998. Student enrolment in Hanover School Division, which serves Central District, increased 12% overall between September 1998 and September 2003 (from 5,860 to 6,589 students) and by 21% in schools with elementary grades (from 2,697 to 3,277 students). In September 1998, Hanover School Division registered 23 English Second Language (ESL) students; by September 2003, 584 funded ESL students were registered, including 17% of students in each grade kindergarten through grade 2 across the division. Student ESL funding is time limited, as follows: kindergarten students, 3 years; grades 1 to 8, 2 years; grades 9-12, 3 years. In total, Hanover School Division has received funding for 1,132 ESL students since 1998.
South Eastman Oversease Immigrants 1999-2003 Place Of Residence On Entry
Southern District, 4%
Western District, 10%
Northern District, 9%
Central District, 77%
Manitoba Health 2004
Other areas of South Eastman are also experiencing the effects of immigration. For example, 203 overseas immigrants have settled in the Town of Niverville. Over time, there has been considerable movement of immigrant families from Central District to the neighbouring municipalities of La Broquerie, Piney, and Stuartburn. In 2003/04, both Arborgate School (La Broquerie) and Shevchenko School (Vita) record that 23% of students kindergarten – grade 2 are registered for ESL funding.
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RESOURCES Activity Report 2003. Steinbach, MB: Steinbach and District Immigrant Settlement Program, 2004. ESL Funded Students 2003/04. South Eastman School Divisions, 2004. Fertility Rates Manitoba and South Eastman 1997/98-2002/03. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 2004. Immigration In/Out South Eastman 1999-2003. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 2004. Manitoba Immigration Doubles Since 1998. Winnipeg, MB: Government of Manitoba News Release January 20, 2004. Manitoba Population Report June 1, 1998. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 1998. Manitoba Population Report June 1, 2003. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Health, 2003. Population Projections 1998-2025 Manitoba RHAs. Winnipeg, MB: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, 1999. South Eastman: Live Birth Reports By Year. La Broquerie, MB: South Eastman RHA, 2004
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Chapter 4: Population Growth and Age Groups The population of South Eastman has increased dramatically – by 8.1% between 1998 and 2003. This chapter examines changes by age group in the South Eastman population since 1998, with comparisons across Manitoba and among regional districts and communities
Key Findings: •
In contrast to other Manitoba RHAs, South Eastman’s population has increased across virtually all age groups. South Eastman’s age group increases reflect the combined effects of high birth rate, increasing in-migration of young families, and population aging.
•
In all cases, South Eastman age group increases are well above Manitoba averages.
•
−
South Eastman experienced 4% increase in children under age 15, while Manitoba as a whole experienced 4% decline.
−
South Eastman youth age 15-24 increased 11%, compared to only 3% across Manitoba.
−
The increase among South Eastman residents age 40-49 more than doubled the provincial rate – 18% versus 8%.
−
The South Eastman population 50-64 years showed 20% increase, compared to 17% across Manitoba.
−
South Eastman saw 1.9% increase in the age group 65-74. Across Manitoba, this age group declined 4%.
−
South Eastman’s population of vulnerable elderly age 75+ increased 11%, compared to 7% in the general Manitoba population.
Within South Eastman, there is differentiation. All communities have seen age group changes over the past five years. However, some have been profoundly affected by population aging, some have experienced marked increases in children, youth, and young adults, and others show striking evidence of growth across all age groups.
For South Eastman, population growth forecasts increasing health care needs across the whole spectrum of preventive, treatment, and support services. Service development must be tailored to meet the specific age group needs of diverse regional communities.
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POPULATION AGE GROUP CHANGES 1998-2003 Between 1998 and 2003, Manitoba experienced a modest 1.5% population increase. At the same time, there was a marked rise in the number of residents age 40 years and over, illustrating the trend to population aging common to all Canadian provinces. This increase was offset by a decline in the number of provincial residents under 40 years of age. In South Eastman, the picture is very different. Here, population aging has been accompanied by a rising birth rate and increasing immigration, primarily involving young families. As a result, South Eastman has experienced 8.1% population growth, with increases well above Manitoba averages in virtually all population age groups. Over the five years 1998-2003, South Eastman’s population of children under age 15 increased 4%, whereas across Manitoba this age group showed 4% decline. The region’s population of youth age 15-24 increased 11%, compared to 3% for the province overall. The population age 25-39 was the only South Eastman age group to show a decline (1%). However, across Manitoba, this age group fell 8%. Among South Eastman residents age 40-49, the five year increase more than doubled the provincial rate – 18% versus 8%. Province-wide, population increases were greatest among residents age 50-64, reflecting aging of the “baby boomer” generation. In South Eastman, this age group increased 20%, exceeding the Manitoba rate, 17%. South Eastman also experienced 6% increase in the population age 65+, compared to 1% provincially. While the increase in residents age 65-74 was lower, at 1.9%, across Manitoba this age group declined 4%. South Eastman’s population of vulnerable elderly age 75+ increased 11% – more than 2% per year – compared to 7% in the overall Manitoba population.
Population Change By Age Group South Eastman and Manitoba 1998 - 2003 South Eastman Manitoba
20% 18%
17%
11%
11% 8%
4%
7%
3%
0-14
15-24
1.9% 25-39 -1%
40-49
50-64
65-74
75+
-4%
-4% -8% Manitoba Health 1999, 2004
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MANITOBA COMPARISONS Comparing age group changes 1998-2003 across Manitoba RHAs highlights South Eastman’s unique experience. In the younger age groups below 40 years, South Eastman alone experienced growth (4%) in the under 15 year population. The region’s increase in the 15-24 age group (11%) was highest in the province. All RHAs except Burntwood showed declines in the 20-39 year age group, with South Eastman’s the smallest, at 1%. In the older age groups over 40 years, South Eastman showed the greatest increase (18%) in the 40-49 age group. The 50-69 age group increased 20%, a gain equalled only by Norman RHA. South Eastman’s 2% increase in the 65-74 population was exceeded in a number of RHAs, including Burntwood, Churchill, North Eastman, and Central. However, in the 75+ age group, South Eastman’s 11% increase surpassed growth in all other RHAs.
Population Change Age Groups 0-39 Manitoba Regional Health Authorities 1998-2003 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% South Eastman
Winnipeg
Brandon
North Eastman
Interlake
Central
0-14
Manitoba Health 1999, 2004
Assiniboine
15-24
Parkland
Norman
Burntwood
Churchill
Manitoba
25-39
Population Change Age Groups 40-75+ Manitoba Regional Health Authorities 1998-2003 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% South Eastman
Winnipeg
Manitoba Health 1999, 2004
Brandon
North Eastman
Interlake
40-49
Central
50-64
Assiniboine
65-74
Parkland
Norman
Burntwood
Churchill
Manitoba
75+
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IMPACTS ON SOUTH EASTMAN COMMUNITIES Increases across population age groups have had differing impacts on South Eastman communities. In the Central District, which saw 14% growth 1998-2003, there were substantial increases across all population age groups. Numbers of children under age 15, youth age 15-24, and adults age 25-39 increased 15%, 13%, and 6%, respectively. Increases in younger age groups were particularly marked in the City of Steinbach, with 19% increase under age 15 and 20% increase age 15-24. Central District also experienced significant growth at older ages. Numbers of adults ages 40-49, 50-64, 65-74, and 75+ increased 26%, 41%, 7%, and 11%, respectively. In the City of Steinbach, the age group 40-49 increased 32%. Among residents over 50 years of age, growth was noticeably greater in Hanover RM, where the population age 50-64 increased 49% and numbers of elderly age 75+ rose 21%. The Southern District experienced 4% overall growth 1998-2003. Characterized in the past by an aging and gradually diminishing population, the district saw 6% increase in children under age 15 and 19% increase in youth age 15-24. Growth was exceptionally strong in Stuartburn, with numbers of children and youth rising 15% and 26%, respectively, and young adults age 25-39 increasing 4%, in contrast to the decline seen in the rest of the district and in the region generally. Across the Southern District, numbers of adults age 40-49 and 50-64 rose 15% and 7%, respectively, while numbers in both the 65-74 and 75+ age groups declined, by 9% and 3%, respectively. The Western District population increased 3% between 1998 and 2003. Overall, there was little growth among younger age groups, although experiences varied widely within the district. St. Pierre-Jolys Village and Niverville Town saw 6-8% increases under age 15 and 17-22% increases age 15-24. with Niverville also showing 7% growth in the 25-39 age group. Both De Salaberry and Ritchot RMs, on the other hand, experienced declines in the under 40 population. De Salaberry RM also showed a decrease age 40-49, whereas in Ritchot, St. Pierre-Jolys, and Niverville, growth in this age group ranged 22-34%. Increases age 50-64 were seen across all district communities but were highest in St. Pierre-Jolys and Niverville, at 46% and 44%, respectively. There was universal decline in the 65-74 population but marked in-district variation with respect to the age group 75+, with St. Pierre-Jolys showing 2% decrease, De Salaberry and Ritchot showing around 10% increase, and Niverville experiencing an increase of 21%. In the Northern District, where the population increased 5% 1998-2003, overall change in age groups under 40 was also minimal. Within the district, however, Ste. Anne RM showed 15% increase under age 15, 11% increase age 15-24. and 6% increase age 25-39. All Northern District communities saw growth in the 15-24 age group, with the greatest increase (16%) occurring in La Broquerie RM. The district saw substantial population increases across all older ages. Growth greatly exceeded regional averages in Ste. Anne Town and Ste. Anne RM for the 40-40 age group and in Taché RM and Ste. Anne RM for the 50-64 age group. Whereas most South Eastman communities experienced declines in the 65-74 population, Ste. Anne RM showed 37% growth in this age group. Ste. Anne RM also showed 40% increase among residents age 75+, with similar increases occurring in Ste. Anne Town and La Broquerie RM. Overall, the data suggest evolving changes in the age structures of South Eastman planning districts. The population of South Eastman’s Southern District shows signs of becoming somewhat younger – contributions of children and youth are increasing, while proportions of adults age 65+ are declining. The reverse generally holds for the Western and Northern district populations, while the Central District population is increasing across the entire age spectrum.
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South Eastman Population Age 0-39, By Municipality and Age Group, 1998-2003.
Age Group Location
Western District
Northern District
Central District
Southern District
Municipality
