Soybean
Oilseeds market situation Philippe Dusser (Fédération Française des producteurs d’oléagineux et protéagineux)
IFAP Group on Grains & Oilseeds – Dublin, Ireland – July 29th, 2009
World production: 2 years of low production (390 Mt) and lower stocks. Recovery expected in 2009/2010
World oilseed carryover (MnT)
90
Stocks fin Stocks/conso
25%
80
70
20%
60 15% 50
40 10% 30
20
5%
10
0 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09e 09/10p
0%
Lower global oilseed production in 2008/09 reflects soybean production setback.
soybean
rapeseed
Sunflower
Soybean : a loss of 20 million tons due to drought in South America. Steep recovery expected in 2009/10
World
Sth Am
Soybean area : USA : corn/soy competition Brazil : area stabilized Argentina : area still expanding
USA
USA BRAZIL
BRAZIL ARGENTINA ARGENTINA
Rapeseed: Record crop of 58 Miot in 2008/09 54,4 Miot expected in 2009/10
Rapeseed: Lower area in Ukraine and Canada along with poor weather in Canada and parts of Europe explains expected 2009 production setback.
Sunflower: Production expected at 32,2 Miot (decline of 1,4 Miot from 2008). Poor weather will reduce yields from exceptional 2008 level.
Sunflower: area stabilized in Ukraine and EU, slight decrease in Russia. Expansion expected in Argentina for 2009 crop.
Palm oil: growth of 2,8 Miot expected in 2009 vs. only 1,8 Miot in 2008
Vegetable oil production: Palm leading the veg. oil market . Veg. Oils World Production (Mio tons) 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0
06/07
25,0
07/08
20,0
08/09e 09/10p
15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Palm
Soja
Rapeseed
Sunflower
Vegetable oils : EU consumption growth due to biodiesel (mainly rapeseed oil) and bioliquids (Palm oil for electricity and heat) Biodiesel in EU
Meal consumption reduced in North America and EU. - impact of meat and milk production setback - competition with corn DDGS from ethanol plants
Chinese imports of soybeans and products: 20% average annual increase since 1995
1000T
soya imports (bean+ oil+ meal) 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1980
China EU World
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
China : 40 Miot of soybean imports in 2008/09, leading importing country for soybean and products
soya imports (bean+oil+meal) 50000
1000T
40000 30000
China
20000
EU
10000 0 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Prices of agricultural commodities : recent tensions on soybean balance explains favorable price relationship.
wheat
corn
Soybean
Prices of agricultural commodities : relative scarcity of soybean weighs on meal price
soybean oil
corn
Soy Meal
Vegetable oils prices
Soybean oil average prices 1987-2006
Palm oil
Price differences between veg oils greatly reduced in 2008/09
RAPE OIL
SOY OIL
PALM OIL
Oilmeal prices
Oilmeal prices
SOYMEAL
SUNMEAL RAPEMEAL
Outlook Low stocks of soybean Lower rapeseed production Lower energy prices South American soy production recovery expected for spring 2010 (what if poor weather conditions ?)
Oilseeds market situation IFAP Group on Grains & Oilseeds – Poznan Poland – June 3rd, 2008
IFAP Group on Grains & Oilseeds – Dublin, Ireland – July 29th, 2009
World production: 2 years of low production (390 Mt) and lower stocks. Recovery expected in 2009/2010
World oilseed carryover (MnT)
90
Stocks fin Stocks/conso
25%
80
70
20%
60 15% 50
40 10% 30
20
5%
10
0 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09e 09/10p
0%
Lower global oilseed production in 2008/09 reflects soybean production setback.
soybean
rapeseed
Sunflower
Soybean : a loss of 20 million tons due to drought in South America. Steep recovery expected in 2009/10
World
Sth Am
Soybean area : USA : corn/soy competition Brazil : area stabilized Argentina : area still expanding
USA
USA BRAZIL
BRAZIL ARGENTINA ARGENTINA
Rapeseed: Record crop of 58 Miot in 2008/09 54,4 Miot expected in 2009/10
Rapeseed: Lower area in Ukraine and Canada along with poor weather in Canada and parts of Europe explains expected 2009 production setback.
Sunflower: Production expected at 32,2 Miot (decline of 1,4 Miot from 2008). Poor weather will reduce yields from exceptional 2008 level.
Sunflower: area stabilized in Ukraine and EU, slight decrease in Russia. Expansion expected in Argentina for 2009 crop.
Palm oil: growth of 2,8 Miot expected in 2009 vs. only 1,8 Miot in 2008
Vegetable oil production: Palm leading the veg. oil market . Veg. Oils World Production (Mio tons) 50,0 45,0 40,0 35,0 30,0
06/07
25,0
07/08
20,0
08/09e 09/10p
15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Palm
Soja
Rapeseed
Sunflower
Vegetable oils : EU consumption growth due to biodiesel (mainly rapeseed oil) and bioliquids (Palm oil for electricity and heat) Biodiesel in EU
Meal consumption reduced in North America and EU. - impact of meat and milk production setback - competition with corn DDGS from ethanol plants
Chinese imports of soybeans and products: 20% average annual increase since 1995
1000T
soya imports (bean+ oil+ meal) 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1980
China EU World
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
China : 40 Miot of soybean imports in 2008/09, leading importing country for soybean and products
soya imports (bean+oil+meal) 50000
1000T
40000 30000
China
20000
EU
10000 0 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Prices of agricultural commodities : recent tensions on soybean balance explains favorable price relationship.
wheat
corn
Soybean
Prices of agricultural commodities : relative scarcity of soybean weighs on meal price
soybean oil
corn
Soy Meal
Vegetable oils prices
Soybean oil average prices 1987-2006
Palm oil
Price differences between veg oils greatly reduced in 2008/09
RAPE OIL
SOY OIL
PALM OIL
Oilmeal prices
Oilmeal prices
SOYMEAL
SUNMEAL RAPEMEAL
Outlook Low stocks of soybean Lower rapeseed production Lower energy prices South American soy production recovery expected for spring 2010 (what if poor weather conditions ?)
Oilseeds market situation IFAP Group on Grains & Oilseeds – Poznan Poland – June 3rd, 2008
