Springs Forward this Fall
How to Guarantee Your Business
Springs Forward this Fall 8/2017
NEXT KCM MEETING Wednesday, November 15th
Phil Okun
Long Island Commercial Market-2017 “Main Street” Investment Properties - Very Strong Office Space for Lease - Challenged = Retail space for Lease - Strong = Industrial Property-Lease or Sale - Very Strong Availability of Financing - Very Strong
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
“Everyone has been talking about tight inventory but I think we are OK calling it a straight up inventory crisis at this point. We just don’t have enough homes.” Svenja Gudell Chief Economist Zillow
Starter homes
Medium sized homes
Larger sized homes
-5%
-10% -17%
Housing inventory as compared to last year realtor.com
“The housing shortage forced many first-time homebuyers to consider smaller homes and condos as a way to literally get their foot in the door. Our survey data reveals that we may see more of these homes hitting the market in the next year.” Danielle Hale
Chief Economist for realtor.com
59%
What Americans will do in the next 12 months
35% 6% Not planning to sell
Planning to sell
Unsure realtor.com
What Americans will do in the next 12 months by age Not planning to sell
Planning to sell
85%
Not sure
61% 45%
49% 33%
6% 18-34 years old
6% 35-54
8% 55+
6%
realtor.com
60%
$$ 18-34 years old
What percentage of all sellers are… 35%
$ 35-54
5% 55+ realtor.com
“Boomers indeed hold the
key to those homes the market desperately needs…Although down-sizing might be on the minds of boomers, they face the same inventory shortages and price increases plaguing millennials.” Danielle Hale
Chief Economist for realtor.com
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
Needs Sold Most Money Least Time Least Problems Relocation
Needs
Answers
Sold
Marketing Plan
Most Money
Qualified Buyers
Least Time
Negotiation Skills
Least Problems
Knowledgeable
Relocation
Control
Resources
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
Concerns of your CLIENTS
57
%
of homeowners
Said home prices are overvalued and unsustainable in my area
58
%
of homeowners
Said there will be a housing bubble and price correction within the next 2 years Value Insured
“We're definitely not in a bubble… While prices nominally have surpassed the 2006 peak, we're not talking about 2006 dollars. We've had 9 years of inflation to factor into home prices today...and, in fact, if you really dug into the analysis what you would find is that home prices today have basically recovered to about where they were in 2004.”
Rick Sharga Expert at Ten-X
“We all remember ‘NINJA’ loans, right? No Income, No Job or Assets. During the housing bubble, lending standards were the loosest they’ve been in our lifetimes. It didn't matter if you qualified or not. Lenders were handing out mortgage loans like free candy at a time when the spread between home prices and incomes was the widest it's ever been.” Financial Sense
84
%
of Americans now believe that purchasing a home is a good financial decision.
This is the highest percentage since 2007 – before the housing crisis. NAR
Those surveyed pointed out five major reasons why they believe homeownership is a good financial decision: 1. Homeownership means the money you spend on housing goes towards building equity, rather than to a landlord 2. Homeownership creates the opportunity to pay off a mortgage and own your home by the time you retire 3. Homeownership is an investment opportunity that builds long-term wealth and increases net worth 4. Homeownership means a stable and predictable monthly mortgage payment 5. Homeownership allows for various deductions on federal, state, and local income taxes NAR
28% 23%
Which would be the best way to invest money you wouldn’t need for more than 10 years? - Bankrate Financial Security Index
17%
15%
4%
Real Estate
Cash Investments
Stock Market
Gold
Bonds
34% 26%
America’s Choice of Best Long Term Investment - Gallup Poll
18% 13% 5% Real Estate
Stocks/Mutual Funds
Gold
Savings Accounts/CDs
Bonds
Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
PROJECTED
5.0
Mean Percentage Appreciation
4.0 3.2
2017
2018
2019
3.0
3.0
2020
2021
Home Price Expectation Survey 2017 3Q
$48,749
$298,749
potential growth in family wealth over the next five years based solely on increased home equity
$290,047 $281,600
$273,000 $262,500 $250,000
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey Home Price Expectation Survey 2017 3Q
“Housing is at near-record affordability, and I can prove it. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) developed by NAR is perhaps the most widely cited measure of housing affordability. Currently, the HAI is at near-record highs, which means the median-income family has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage to buy the median-price house…mortgage payments are more affordable today than at almost any time in history. ”
Sean Becketti
VP Chief Economist Freddie Mac
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120
Years when distressed properties dominated the market
110 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TODAY NAR
NAHB’s Housing Opportunity Index 2nd Quarter
75 70 65 60 55
Years when distressed properties dominated the market
50 45 40 35 30
2000
2001
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TODAY
NAHB
National Homebuyers’ “Typical Mortgage Payment”* $1,244 $1,000
$848
$983
$543
January 2000
June 2006
February 2012
June 2017
*The typical mortgage payment used for this chart represents the inflationadjusted monthly payment based on U.S. median sales price and assumes a 20% down payment, a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage and Freddie Mac’s average monthly rte. It does not include taxes or insurance.
PROJECTED June 2018
CoreLogic
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
2009
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
90 Day Plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
90 Day Plan for Success 1.) Prospect for listings at least two hours a day 2.) Upgrade all your presentation manuals • • • •
Listing Buyer Negotiation of Offer Price Correction
3.) Identify buyers’ and sellers’ fears/concerns and gather information to help put them at ease 4.) Create one powerful story each week revolving around the housing market
All the INFO you need!!
Presentation Materials
Consumer Magazines
Social Media Content
“FSBOs tend to sell for lower prices than comparable home sales and in many cases below the average differential represented by the prevailing commission rate.” Collateral Analytics Research
Three of the study’s conclusions: 1. FSBOs achieve prices significantly lower than those from similar properties sold by Realtors using the MLS 2. The differential in selling prices for FSBOs when compared to MLS sales of similar properties was about 5.5% in 2016 3. The sales in 2017 suggest the average price was near 6% lower for FSBO sales of similar properties Collateral Analytics
How much less a FSBO gets for the sale of their house as compared to a sale by a real estate agent of a similar property
2016
-5.5% Collateral Analytics
First half of 2017
-6%
Why would FSBOs net less money than if they used an agent? • FSBO buyers are out looking for a discount on the home they purchase • Agents know how to properly ‘stage’ the house • Properties listed with a broker are marketed to a much larger buyer population. If more buyers see a home, the greater are the chances there could be a bidding war for the property Collateral Analytics
Fall Seller’s Guide
Fall Buyer’s Guide
Springs Forward this Fall 8/2017
NEXT KCM MEETING Wednesday, November 15th
Phil Okun
Long Island Commercial Market-2017 “Main Street” Investment Properties - Very Strong Office Space for Lease - Challenged = Retail space for Lease - Strong = Industrial Property-Lease or Sale - Very Strong Availability of Financing - Very Strong
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
“Everyone has been talking about tight inventory but I think we are OK calling it a straight up inventory crisis at this point. We just don’t have enough homes.” Svenja Gudell Chief Economist Zillow
Starter homes
Medium sized homes
Larger sized homes
-5%
-10% -17%
Housing inventory as compared to last year realtor.com
“The housing shortage forced many first-time homebuyers to consider smaller homes and condos as a way to literally get their foot in the door. Our survey data reveals that we may see more of these homes hitting the market in the next year.” Danielle Hale
Chief Economist for realtor.com
59%
What Americans will do in the next 12 months
35% 6% Not planning to sell
Planning to sell
Unsure realtor.com
What Americans will do in the next 12 months by age Not planning to sell
Planning to sell
85%
Not sure
61% 45%
49% 33%
6% 18-34 years old
6% 35-54
8% 55+
6%
realtor.com
60%
$$ 18-34 years old
What percentage of all sellers are… 35%
$ 35-54
5% 55+ realtor.com
“Boomers indeed hold the
key to those homes the market desperately needs…Although down-sizing might be on the minds of boomers, they face the same inventory shortages and price increases plaguing millennials.” Danielle Hale
Chief Economist for realtor.com
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
Needs Sold Most Money Least Time Least Problems Relocation
Needs
Answers
Sold
Marketing Plan
Most Money
Qualified Buyers
Least Time
Negotiation Skills
Least Problems
Knowledgeable
Relocation
Control
Resources
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
Concerns of your CLIENTS
57
%
of homeowners
Said home prices are overvalued and unsustainable in my area
58
%
of homeowners
Said there will be a housing bubble and price correction within the next 2 years Value Insured
“We're definitely not in a bubble… While prices nominally have surpassed the 2006 peak, we're not talking about 2006 dollars. We've had 9 years of inflation to factor into home prices today...and, in fact, if you really dug into the analysis what you would find is that home prices today have basically recovered to about where they were in 2004.”
Rick Sharga Expert at Ten-X
“We all remember ‘NINJA’ loans, right? No Income, No Job or Assets. During the housing bubble, lending standards were the loosest they’ve been in our lifetimes. It didn't matter if you qualified or not. Lenders were handing out mortgage loans like free candy at a time when the spread between home prices and incomes was the widest it's ever been.” Financial Sense
84
%
of Americans now believe that purchasing a home is a good financial decision.
This is the highest percentage since 2007 – before the housing crisis. NAR
Those surveyed pointed out five major reasons why they believe homeownership is a good financial decision: 1. Homeownership means the money you spend on housing goes towards building equity, rather than to a landlord 2. Homeownership creates the opportunity to pay off a mortgage and own your home by the time you retire 3. Homeownership is an investment opportunity that builds long-term wealth and increases net worth 4. Homeownership means a stable and predictable monthly mortgage payment 5. Homeownership allows for various deductions on federal, state, and local income taxes NAR
28% 23%
Which would be the best way to invest money you wouldn’t need for more than 10 years? - Bankrate Financial Security Index
17%
15%
4%
Real Estate
Cash Investments
Stock Market
Gold
Bonds
34% 26%
America’s Choice of Best Long Term Investment - Gallup Poll
18% 13% 5% Real Estate
Stocks/Mutual Funds
Gold
Savings Accounts/CDs
Bonds
Home Price Expectation Survey A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.
PROJECTED
5.0
Mean Percentage Appreciation
4.0 3.2
2017
2018
2019
3.0
3.0
2020
2021
Home Price Expectation Survey 2017 3Q
$48,749
$298,749
potential growth in family wealth over the next five years based solely on increased home equity
$290,047 $281,600
$273,000 $262,500 $250,000
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey Home Price Expectation Survey 2017 3Q
“Housing is at near-record affordability, and I can prove it. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) developed by NAR is perhaps the most widely cited measure of housing affordability. Currently, the HAI is at near-record highs, which means the median-income family has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage to buy the median-price house…mortgage payments are more affordable today than at almost any time in history. ”
Sean Becketti
VP Chief Economist Freddie Mac
NAR’s Housing Affordability Index 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120
Years when distressed properties dominated the market
110 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TODAY NAR
NAHB’s Housing Opportunity Index 2nd Quarter
75 70 65 60 55
Years when distressed properties dominated the market
50 45 40 35 30
2000
2001
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TODAY
NAHB
National Homebuyers’ “Typical Mortgage Payment”* $1,244 $1,000
$848
$983
$543
January 2000
June 2006
February 2012
June 2017
*The typical mortgage payment used for this chart represents the inflationadjusted monthly payment based on U.S. median sales price and assumes a 20% down payment, a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage and Freddie Mac’s average monthly rte. It does not include taxes or insurance.
PROJECTED June 2018
CoreLogic
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
2009
Today, we will: 1. Uncover a large source of untapped listing inventory that your competition hasn’t even thought about 2. Reveal the secret that will guarantee you get the listing within the first ten minutes of the appointment 3. Provide further evidence that homeownership is a great long term investment 4. Discuss how “storytelling” will disrupt your real estate marketing plan in 2018 5. Give a detailed 90 day plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
90 Day Plan to ensure you dominate the fall market
90 Day Plan for Success 1.) Prospect for listings at least two hours a day 2.) Upgrade all your presentation manuals • • • •
Listing Buyer Negotiation of Offer Price Correction
3.) Identify buyers’ and sellers’ fears/concerns and gather information to help put them at ease 4.) Create one powerful story each week revolving around the housing market
All the INFO you need!!
Presentation Materials
Consumer Magazines
Social Media Content
“FSBOs tend to sell for lower prices than comparable home sales and in many cases below the average differential represented by the prevailing commission rate.” Collateral Analytics Research
Three of the study’s conclusions: 1. FSBOs achieve prices significantly lower than those from similar properties sold by Realtors using the MLS 2. The differential in selling prices for FSBOs when compared to MLS sales of similar properties was about 5.5% in 2016 3. The sales in 2017 suggest the average price was near 6% lower for FSBO sales of similar properties Collateral Analytics
How much less a FSBO gets for the sale of their house as compared to a sale by a real estate agent of a similar property
2016
-5.5% Collateral Analytics
First half of 2017
-6%
Why would FSBOs net less money than if they used an agent? • FSBO buyers are out looking for a discount on the home they purchase • Agents know how to properly ‘stage’ the house • Properties listed with a broker are marketed to a much larger buyer population. If more buyers see a home, the greater are the chances there could be a bidding war for the property Collateral Analytics
Fall Seller’s Guide
Fall Buyer’s Guide
