State Snapshot
ARIZONA
AZ
2015 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: 2013 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: Decrease from 2013 to 2015:
13.7% 16.3% 2.6%
Before the first Affordable Care Act enrollment period began, Enroll America and Civis Analytics used sophisticated data targeting techniques to create a model of the uninsured population in America. Over the last three years, this model has proven to be timely and accurate, and has played a critical role in our ability to understand who and where the uninsured are and get them the help they need to enroll in coverage. This year, the model has been updated and was used to estimate insurance status for over 180 million non-elderly adult Americans. Grouping individual-level estimates by geography, race, age, gender, and other characteristics enables us to understand the landscape of the uninsured population across the country. Here we provide a detailed look at the uninsured population in Arizona, put into context by plan selection data from HHS and a comparison with nationwide uninsured rates. All uninsured rates listed in this document are based on the Enroll America/Civis Analytics uninsured model. Chart 1: Arizona Uninsured Rates for 2013 and 2015 of Key Demographic Groups
Overall
30
Race
Uninsured Rate
25
Age
Gender 26 23
20 15 10
16
19
18
16 14
14
13
11
20
18
12
2013
16
15
15
13 13
13
13
12
12
12
5
2015 10
0 National
Arizona
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Quick Summary
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
State Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● The current uninsured rate in Arizona is 14%. This has decreased by 3% since 2013 prior to the first open enrollment period. ● 19% of Hispanics in Arizona are uninsured, 13% of African-Americans are uninsured and 20% of young adults (ages 18-34) are uninsured. Targeting Recommendations ● Geographic - More uninsured people live in Maricopa County (56% of the uninsured population) and Pima County (14% of the uninsured population) than any other county. ● Geographic - The counties with the highest uninsured rates currently are Apache County (36%), Navajo County (27%), Coconino County (23%) and Yuma County (22%). Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
● Demographic - Hispanic men ages 18 to 34 (27%) have the highest 2015 uninsured rates, followed by Hispanic women ages 18 to 34 (23%) and African American men ages 18 to 34 (21%).
10%
5%
15%
20%
Table 1: Distribution of Uninsured Population by Demographic Groups in Quick Summary Race [1] Distribution of Uninsured Population, Ages 18 to 64 % 2013 Uninsured Population in Arizona % 2015 Uninsured Population in Arizona Change from 2013 to 2015
Gender
Age
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
1.3% 1.1% -0.2%
64.1% 66.4% 2.3%
32.7% 30.3% -2.4%
1.9% 2.2% 0.4%
53.0% 52.8% -0.2%
47.0% 47.2% 0.2%
40.5% 40.8% 0.2%
22.0% 19.2% -2.8%
21.5% 22.6% 1.1%
15.9% 17.4% 1.4%
Table 2: 2015 Uninsured Rates in Most Populous Counties Total Top 10 Most Populous Counties, Ordered by Population Size ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Maricopa County Pima County Pinal County Yavapai County Mohave County Yuma County Coconino County Cochise County Navajo County Apache County
Race
Gender
Age
Percent
2015 Uninsured Rate
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
12% 13% 14% 15% 17% 22% 23% 14% 27% 36%
12% 12% 13% 14% 18% 18% 24% 13% 29% 40%
10% 11% 13% 14% 17% 17% 22% 13% 27% 36%
17% 19% 19% 21% 23% 26% 25% 20% 28% 34%
11% 13% 14% 15% 18% 19% 27% 14% 35% 41%
13% 14% 15% 16% 19% 23% 23% 15% 29% 38%
11% 12% 13% 13% 16% 20% 22% 14% 26% 34%
17% 20% 21% 23% 25% 30% 33% 22% 38% 46%
10% 12% 13% 15% 17% 19% 20% 14% 27% 34%
10% 11% 13% 13% 16% 18% 18% 13% 24% 31%
8% 9% 11% 11% 14% 16% 15% 11% 20% 27%
Page 1 of 2 - Arizona State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
% of AZ Uninsured Population 56% 14% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3%
www.enrollamerica.org
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARIZONA
AZ
OE2 Plan Selection Data from Health and Human Services
Remaining Uninsured Estimates from June 2015 Kaiser Family Foundation Study
Total OE2 Plan Selections in Arizona: [2] Effectuated OE2 Plan Selections: [3] % Effectuated of Total Plan Selections Arizona plans with Advanced Premium Tax Credit (APTC): % APTC of Effectuated Plans
205,666 165,026 80% 126,506 77%
Estimated Number of Remaining Uninsured in Arizona: [4] % Medicaid Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Tax Credit Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Ineligible for Financial Assistance of Remaining Uninsured [5]
808,000 46% 12% 42%
Chart 2: Distribution of Total Plan Selections by Provided Age and Race [6,7] Distribution of Plan Selections by Age 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Distribution of Plan Selections by Race [6] 90% 100% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Arizona Maricopa County Pima County Pinal County Yavapai County Mohave County Yuma County Coconino County Cochise County Navajo County Apache County 18-25
26-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
White
Latino
Black
Asian
Other
National Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● In 2013 before the first open enrollment period, Arizona's uninsured rate of 16.3% was 0.1% lower than the national uninsured rate. ● In 2015, Arizona's uninsured rate of 13.7% is 3.0% greater than the current national uninsured rate.
Uninsured Rate
State Comparison with National Uninsured Rate 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
16.4
16.3 13.7
2013
10.7
2015
National
Arizona
Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Footnotes [1] Civis Analytics uses a similar scoring method to assign most likely race to consumers which explains why the race distribution adds up to 100%. [2] March 10, 2015 ASPE Issue Brief with total plan selections by state from from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Full memo can be found here: http://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/83656/ib_2015mar_enrollment.pdf [3] March 31, 2015 Effectuated Enrollment Snapshot released by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on June 2, 2015. This includes all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Additional information can be found at: https://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Factsheets-items/2015-06-02.html [4] Estimates of Eligibility for ACA Coverage among the Uninsured released by the Kaiser Family Foundation on June 1, 2015. Additional data and methodology can be found at: http://kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/new-estimates-of-eligibility-for-aca-coverage-among-the-uninsured/ [5] Ineligible for Financial Assistance is due to Income, ESI Offer, or Citizenship. [6] HHS released county level plan selection data broken down by age and race, among other groupings. These plan selections include all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period. The full data file can be found at: http://aspe.hhs.gov/basic-report/2015-plan-selections-county-health-insurance-marketplace [7] Enrollments for which race is unknown was not included in this graphic. This varies between states, but 36% of plan selections had an unknown race. Other includes American Indian/Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander and Multiracial.
Additional Enroll America Research, Blogs and Maps can be found at : https://www.enrollamerica.org/research-maps/ Page 2 of 2 - Arizona State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
www.enrollamerica.org
AZ
2015 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: 2013 Estimated Uninsured Rate of 18 to 64 year olds: Decrease from 2013 to 2015:
13.7% 16.3% 2.6%
Before the first Affordable Care Act enrollment period began, Enroll America and Civis Analytics used sophisticated data targeting techniques to create a model of the uninsured population in America. Over the last three years, this model has proven to be timely and accurate, and has played a critical role in our ability to understand who and where the uninsured are and get them the help they need to enroll in coverage. This year, the model has been updated and was used to estimate insurance status for over 180 million non-elderly adult Americans. Grouping individual-level estimates by geography, race, age, gender, and other characteristics enables us to understand the landscape of the uninsured population across the country. Here we provide a detailed look at the uninsured population in Arizona, put into context by plan selection data from HHS and a comparison with nationwide uninsured rates. All uninsured rates listed in this document are based on the Enroll America/Civis Analytics uninsured model. Chart 1: Arizona Uninsured Rates for 2013 and 2015 of Key Demographic Groups
Overall
30
Race
Uninsured Rate
25
Age
Gender 26 23
20 15 10
16
19
18
16 14
14
13
11
20
18
12
2013
16
15
15
13 13
13
13
12
12
12
5
2015 10
0 National
Arizona
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Quick Summary
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
State Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● The current uninsured rate in Arizona is 14%. This has decreased by 3% since 2013 prior to the first open enrollment period. ● 19% of Hispanics in Arizona are uninsured, 13% of African-Americans are uninsured and 20% of young adults (ages 18-34) are uninsured. Targeting Recommendations ● Geographic - More uninsured people live in Maricopa County (56% of the uninsured population) and Pima County (14% of the uninsured population) than any other county. ● Geographic - The counties with the highest uninsured rates currently are Apache County (36%), Navajo County (27%), Coconino County (23%) and Yuma County (22%). Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
● Demographic - Hispanic men ages 18 to 34 (27%) have the highest 2015 uninsured rates, followed by Hispanic women ages 18 to 34 (23%) and African American men ages 18 to 34 (21%).
10%
5%
15%
20%
Table 1: Distribution of Uninsured Population by Demographic Groups in Quick Summary Race [1] Distribution of Uninsured Population, Ages 18 to 64 % 2013 Uninsured Population in Arizona % 2015 Uninsured Population in Arizona Change from 2013 to 2015
Gender
Age
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
1.3% 1.1% -0.2%
64.1% 66.4% 2.3%
32.7% 30.3% -2.4%
1.9% 2.2% 0.4%
53.0% 52.8% -0.2%
47.0% 47.2% 0.2%
40.5% 40.8% 0.2%
22.0% 19.2% -2.8%
21.5% 22.6% 1.1%
15.9% 17.4% 1.4%
Table 2: 2015 Uninsured Rates in Most Populous Counties Total Top 10 Most Populous Counties, Ordered by Population Size ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Maricopa County Pima County Pinal County Yavapai County Mohave County Yuma County Coconino County Cochise County Navajo County Apache County
Race
Gender
Age
Percent
2015 Uninsured Rate
Black
White
Hispanic
Asian
Male
Female
18 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
12% 13% 14% 15% 17% 22% 23% 14% 27% 36%
12% 12% 13% 14% 18% 18% 24% 13% 29% 40%
10% 11% 13% 14% 17% 17% 22% 13% 27% 36%
17% 19% 19% 21% 23% 26% 25% 20% 28% 34%
11% 13% 14% 15% 18% 19% 27% 14% 35% 41%
13% 14% 15% 16% 19% 23% 23% 15% 29% 38%
11% 12% 13% 13% 16% 20% 22% 14% 26% 34%
17% 20% 21% 23% 25% 30% 33% 22% 38% 46%
10% 12% 13% 15% 17% 19% 20% 14% 27% 34%
10% 11% 13% 13% 16% 18% 18% 13% 24% 31%
8% 9% 11% 11% 14% 16% 15% 11% 20% 27%
Page 1 of 2 - Arizona State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
% of AZ Uninsured Population 56% 14% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3%
www.enrollamerica.org
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARIZONA
AZ
OE2 Plan Selection Data from Health and Human Services
Remaining Uninsured Estimates from June 2015 Kaiser Family Foundation Study
Total OE2 Plan Selections in Arizona: [2] Effectuated OE2 Plan Selections: [3] % Effectuated of Total Plan Selections Arizona plans with Advanced Premium Tax Credit (APTC): % APTC of Effectuated Plans
205,666 165,026 80% 126,506 77%
Estimated Number of Remaining Uninsured in Arizona: [4] % Medicaid Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Tax Credit Eligible of Remaining Uninsured % Ineligible for Financial Assistance of Remaining Uninsured [5]
808,000 46% 12% 42%
Chart 2: Distribution of Total Plan Selections by Provided Age and Race [6,7] Distribution of Plan Selections by Age 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Distribution of Plan Selections by Race [6] 90% 100% 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Arizona Maricopa County Pima County Pinal County Yavapai County Mohave County Yuma County Coconino County Cochise County Navajo County Apache County 18-25
26-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
White
Latino
Black
Asian
Other
National Map: 2015 Uninsured Rates by County
● In 2013 before the first open enrollment period, Arizona's uninsured rate of 16.3% was 0.1% lower than the national uninsured rate. ● In 2015, Arizona's uninsured rate of 13.7% is 3.0% greater than the current national uninsured rate.
Uninsured Rate
State Comparison with National Uninsured Rate 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
16.4
16.3 13.7
2013
10.7
2015
National
Arizona
Map Scale: Uninsured Rates per County
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Footnotes [1] Civis Analytics uses a similar scoring method to assign most likely race to consumers which explains why the race distribution adds up to 100%. [2] March 10, 2015 ASPE Issue Brief with total plan selections by state from from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Full memo can be found here: http://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/83656/ib_2015mar_enrollment.pdf [3] March 31, 2015 Effectuated Enrollment Snapshot released by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on June 2, 2015. This includes all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period from November 15, 2015 to February 22, 2015. Additional information can be found at: https://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Factsheets-items/2015-06-02.html [4] Estimates of Eligibility for ACA Coverage among the Uninsured released by the Kaiser Family Foundation on June 1, 2015. Additional data and methodology can be found at: http://kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/new-estimates-of-eligibility-for-aca-coverage-among-the-uninsured/ [5] Ineligible for Financial Assistance is due to Income, ESI Offer, or Citizenship. [6] HHS released county level plan selection data broken down by age and race, among other groupings. These plan selections include all new and renewing consumers during the second open enrollment period. The full data file can be found at: http://aspe.hhs.gov/basic-report/2015-plan-selections-county-health-insurance-marketplace [7] Enrollments for which race is unknown was not included in this graphic. This varies between states, but 36% of plan selections had an unknown race. Other includes American Indian/Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander and Multiracial.
Additional Enroll America Research, Blogs and Maps can be found at : https://www.enrollamerica.org/research-maps/ Page 2 of 2 - Arizona State Snapshot - Enroll America - October 2015
www.enrollamerica.org
