STATEMENT OF : Dr Geoff Meaden AGE OF WITNESS (D.O.B) : Over ...

STATEMENT OF

:

Dr Geoff Meaden

AGE OF WITNESS (D.O.B)

:

Over 21

OCCUPATION OF WITNESS

:

Retired

ADDRESS

:

“Gorewell” Selling Road Old Wives Lees Canterbury Kent, CT4 8BD

TELEPHONE

:

01227 752275

This signed statement consists of 24 pages. It is true to the best of my knowledge and belief and I make it knowing that, if it is tendered in evidence, I shall be liable to prosecution if I have wilfully stated in it anything which I know to be false or do not believe to be true. Dated the 10th day of January, 2011 Signed:……………………………………….. Signature Witnessed By:…………………………………………

Credentials 1.

I have lived in the Canterbury, Kent, area since 1974 and have worked until recently as Principal Lecturer in the Department of Geographical and Life Sciences at Canterbury Christ Church University. I have now retired, though I still undertake writing, research projects and consultancy work for the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. At the university I specialised in three areas – biogeography, which is the study of the distribution of plants and animals on the planet, the local physical geography of Kent which includes coastal geography and water supply in the region and a third area, that of Geographical Information System (GIS). These are computer-based mapping and analysis programmes. Fisheries GIS is my research area and I was the Director of the Fisheries GIS Unit at the University. My work for the United Nations is based on introducing spatially-based fisheries management systems that take into account newly emerging ideas such as the ecosystems approach to fisheries, marine spatial planning, marine conservation zones and the affects (current and future) of climate change on marine distributions.

Climate Change and its causes and growth 2.

There is presently a large and increasing body of evidence to suggest that the world‟s temperatures are rising. In respect of very long term changes in atmospheric temperatures it is important to understand that they have fluctuated periodically (but somewhat erratically) over many millions of years. The maximum range of fluctuations has been about 8C. Presently we are in a post-glacial warming phase that has been ongoing for some 9,000 years, though there have been minor fluctuations during this period. Using various types of evidence climatologists are able to calculate the 1

approximate rates of temperature rise or fall fairly accurately, certainly for changes that have occurred over say the last 10,000 years. From this research we can clearly establish that the present rates of temperature rise are unprecedented, even compared with rates over the past 10‟s of millions of years. Figure 1 shows temperature anomalies over the last two thousand years and it can be seen that there was a period of pronounced warming between about 500 and 1200 AD (called the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)), and a pronounced cool period from about 1400 to 1800 AD (called the Little Ice Age (LIA)). Rapid temperature rises have been very apparent over the last two centuries, but especially over the last few decades, and scientists have recently confirmed that the world has just come through the warmest six months, the warmest year, and the warmest decade on record1. Such is the present rate of temperature rise caused by human actions that, unless urgent remedial action is taken, in the future the planet will have no more of the „Ice Ages‟ that have occurred frequently though variably during the last 1.6 million years2.

Figure 1. Temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (green line) over the last two thousand years. 3.

Climate change can be caused by various natural or „man-made‟ processes. Natural causes of climate change include factors such as the shifting of the world‟s tectonic plates, variations in the energy output from the sun, variations in the Earth‟s orbit, volcanic activity and changes in ocean currents. Any of these factors, either singly or in combination, have led in the past to shorter or longer term climate change and they will undoubtedly affect future climatic scenarios. However, scientists have very good reasons to believe that the current changes in climate are overwhelmingly caused by human activities. Their belief is based on the fact that a variety of so-called „greenhouse

1

See http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html and summarised in http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/29 2 This is because human induced climate change factors are far in excess of the factors that caused the climate to cool during the Ice Ages.

2

gases‟ are rapidly building up in the atmosphere. Figure 2 shows the build up over the last 2000 years for the three main greenhouse gasses (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), though other main gases include water vapour and chlorofluorocarbons. This diagram clearly shows the huge increases in gas concentrations that occurred after about 1800AD. The amount of CO2 (the main greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere in the pre-industrial era was 280 parts per million (ppm). Since the mid-19th century CO2 levels have started to rise and they are now rising exponentially (at an accelerating rate). The level is now at 385 ppm and by the middle of this century it will be over 470 ppm. Hansen (2008) has estimated that the present rate of temperature rise is driven by the fact that CO2 is currently accumulating in the atmosphere about 10,000 times faster than at any rate during the last 50 million years3. Greenhouse gases have the effect of trapping solar heat, mostly within the lower layers of the earth‟s atmosphere, and some gases do this more efficiently than others. Much of this heat is also absorbed by the earth, by buildings, by roadways, etc. Without „man-made‟ structures and human activities the earth‟s climate would more easily maintain an equilibrium (balance) whereby conditions are relatively stable over long time periods. As well as the evidence shown in Figure 2, climate change with its associated global warming, is having a range of other effects that can be measured to provide further evidence that the world is warming – these are discussed in paragraphs 6 to 11.

Figure 2. The accumulation of the three main greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere – 0 to 2000 AD. 4.

Greenhouse gases themselves are overwhelmingly produced by the burning of so-called fossil fuels, i.e. coal, gas and oil, though they also occur through activities such as burning forests, grazing animals, permafrost melting, growing rice, etc. Figure 3 gives an indication of the relative amount of the main fuels burned by the leading energy

3

Hansen et al (2008) Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? In Open Atmos. Sci. J. (2008), vol. 2, pp. 217-231 (See http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126)

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producing countries. At the world scale the burning of coal makes the greatest contribution to global warming. Coal was almost the only source of fossil fuel CO2 emissions until about 1920. CO2 emissions from oil accelerated rapidly after WW II, passing coal emissions in the early 1960s. However, the use of coal has accelerated in the past few decades, and by 2007 global CO2 emissions from coal (40%)4 had almost caught those of oil (41%), with gas at 19%. Given evidence that the world is approaching peak oil production, and the fact that recoverable resources of coal are much larger than those of oil, coal is likely to become the dominant source of future atmospheric CO2, i.e. unless a conscious decision is made to limit emissions from coal. In the UK 65% of greenhouse gases come from burning fuels to create energy (excluding transport)5. Globally the use of coal far exceeds the use of other fossil fuels for electricity production (providing 40% of world electricity requirements). But the increasing contribution to greenhouse gases made by the transport sector is also of huge concern.

Figure 3. Energy consumption by fuel use for leading energy using countries 5.

I understand that the defendants undertook actions at the Manchester airport aimed at directly stopping flights because they believed that this location was a major (and growing) source of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere, and that these gases would be contributing to death and/or serious injury to others. Is there any evidence that this might be the case? Globally transport is responsible for nearly a quarter of all greenhouse gases6. It is also the sector where emissions are growing most

4

See http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/coalfacts.cfm

5

Figures are from http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/ Houghton, J. (2009) Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Cambridge University Press.

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rapidly (world-wide and in the UK)7. Over the next 15 years air passenger numbers in Europe will grow by between 4.5% and 5% per year, and passenger numbers passing through UK airports will double in the next 20 years. Air transport presently accounts for about 10% of transport emissions, but in the future this sector is forecast to grow much more quickly than either road or shipping, and by 2050 the volume of aircraft emissions will have quintupled. Despite better fuel efficiency, aircraft fuel use is growing at 3% per annum. However, actual fuel consumed is only part of the problem with respect to aircraft growth, i.e. according to Houghton (see note 6) recorded emissions from aircraft need to be doubled to allow for the effects of increased high clouds formed through the emission of water vapour and particles that can act as nuclei around which condensation occurs. These so-called contrails (vapour trails) provide a blanketing effect around the earth similar to greenhouse gases. 6.

Clearly the spur to the rapid surge in aircraft use comes from an increasingly globalised world. It has been argued by Houghton that “controlling the growing influence of aviation on the climate is probably the largest challenge to be solved in the overall mitigation of climate change.” (Note 7 - p.346). The magnitude of this task can be appreciated if we realise that in order to achieve the necessary 90% cut in greenhouse emissions by 2050 (as recommended by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)8 each person in Britain needs to reduce their CO2 emissions by 87%, i.e. to get down to a per capita total annual of 1.2 tonnes of CO2 emitted. Yet, this is the emissions equivalent of just one passenger taking one return flight from London to New York. Putting this another way, in order to meet the government‟s carbon-reduction targets for 2050, and given the predicted rise in aircraft use, then all other sectors of the economy would have to be completely decarbonised by that date. It is the view of Bows and Anderson (2007) that “The UK Government, and governments across Europe, must urgently address the very high levels of growth currently experienced within the (aircraft) industry, and consider additional carbon-reduction measures if future growth in the industry is to be reconciled with the carbon-reduction targets to which they have all committed.”9 Given these conclusions it is hardly surprising that an airport might prove to be a major target for protesters in an attempt to draw attention to what is happening regarding Climate Change, as well as to the present insufficiency of actions being taken to address the global warming problem. And the protesters will have noted the fact that central government has acted to stop expansion at all the major airports in the south east (Heathrow, Gatwick, Stanstead and the proposed airport at Cliffe)10. It is difficult to believe that this decision was taken without there being a realisation that the growth in air transport was a negative factor that should not be encouraged, and indeed, since the publication of the Stern Report in 2006, climate change has been a required consideration in respect to airport expansion decisions11. Surely what is good for the south east should also be good for Manchester!

7

See Bows, A. and Anderson, K.L. (2007) Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK government’s 60% carbon-reduction target? Transport Policy. Vol.14, pp103-110. 8

See http://www.eta.co.uk/env_info/air_travel_climate_change

9

See note 8 (p.110)

10

See http://www.parliament.uk/briefingpapers/commons/lib/research/briefings/snbt-02893.pdf

11

See “Air Transport White Paper Progress Report 2006” available at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/air/aviationprog ressreportsection/aviationprogressreport

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The consequences of climate change 7.

Under Climate Change not only is the climate generally warming but this change is occurring at a rapidly accelerating rate. Figure 4 shows the IPCC forecast increases in world temperatures by the year 2100. It can be seen that the greatest rises, perhaps at rates of over 7C in just 100 years, are forecast for some Arctic areas. Temperature increases are large here because of ice losses, i.e. previously ice cover would have kept the Arctic cool because of its reflective ability, but this cooling tendency is lost once the ice melts. Temperature increases are generally higher over land than over oceans simply because solid land surfaces have a greater ability to absorb heat than does water (oceanic) surfaces. Average land area temperature increases are about 4C, a rise that will be catastrophic for many natural processes and for some human activities, e.g. farming and health. Although much attention is drawn to warmer temperatures and rising sea levels these are only two of many factors associated with a warming planet. Table 1 summarises all the main indicators of Climate Change12. The importance of this Table is in indicating the varied ways in which Climate Change is having a progressively greater impact on human economies and welfare, as well as affecting the natural environment. A brief perusal of the table indicates that the effects caused are overwhelmingly negative. The following paragraphs (8 to 11) take a selective look at some of the factors mentioned in Table 1.

Figure 4. IPCC world temperature increases forecast for the year 2100

12

Condensed from http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators/pdfs/ClimateIndicators_full.pdf

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Climate Change indicator 1. Greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations 2. Generally increasing temperatures 3. Drought and heat waves and forest fires

How the indicator is manifest (effects caused) These are rising exponentially with a 30% increase since 1990.

Rising over 85% of the Earth, most notably in the northern hemisphere. Differential effects; recently severe in Russia, Niger, Australia, and Amazonia, and becoming more frequent. 4. Rainfall Rapidly increasing number of concentrated precipitation events, e.g. Pakistan, NW China, France. 5. Severe storm events In the northern hemisphere there is a considerable rise in the accumulated energy within tropical storms, hurricanes, cyclones, etc. 6. Sea temperatures Although average sea temperatures have risen by only 1.5C over the last 100 years, the rate of rise is now increasing rapidly. 7. Ocean acidification This is increasing everywhere, especially in the North Atlantic. It is rapidly killing off plankton, the base of the marine food web. 8. Sea level rise Although the rise was only 18cms during the 20th century, the rate of rise is now rapidly accelerating. 9. Polar ice cover There has been a 25% drop in the extent of Arctic ice cover in the last 30 years. 10. Melting of glaciers There has been a 30% loss in the volume of glacier ice in 40 years; the rate of such loss is now rapidly increasing 11. Days of snow (or ice) Most ski resorts have their season shortened by cover about 10 days compared with 20 years ago. Some resorts are becoming uneconomic. 12. Total length of the growing In mid-latitudes this has increased by about 14 days season over the last 40 years. An increase can be both positive and negative. 13. Earlier leafing or flowers Some leaves/flowers are appearing 26 days earlier than 40 years ago. This can severely affect faunal feeding patterns. 14. Species migrations Animal seasonal migrations are affected, and there is a progressive poleward (or altitudinal) shift in the distribution range of most species 15. Increased human mortality In France in 2005 a summer heat wave caused an excess of deaths (over normal) of 30,000. A similar occurrence was recorded in 2010 in Russia. Loss of life in wild fires.

Table 1 The main indicators and effects of Climate Change

8.

Although long term rates of sea level rise are difficult to estimate accurately, some of the effects of Climate Change on rising sea levels can be briefly enlarged upon. Global warming is currently a major cause of rising sea levels. Thus, with Climate Change comes increased warming which in turn leads to increasing rates of melting of the 7

world‟s ice and then to sea level rise. Ice normally covers a significant proportion of the polar regions of the Earth‟s surface and this ice reflects much of the sun‟s heat. With reduced ice cover less heat is reflected and instead this heat is absorbed by sea water, causing the warmed water to expand and thus to rise (this is called thermal expansion). For the first time ever it is likely that within 30 years there will be no ice at all over the North Pole during the summer13. The rate of sea level rise around the UK is presently up to 1cm per year and this rate is increasing exponentially. Rates of sea level rise are variable between locations because they depend upon a mixture of factors. For instance rates of rise are particularly rapid in south-east England because four factors are contributing to the rise:  Ice melt.  Thermal expansion.  Increasing warm temperatures cause faster rates of rising air, thus more Low air pressures, thus rising water surfaces.  Isostatic recovery14 means that land levels in the south east are sinking relative to sea levels. Even the more modest estimates suggest that sea levels in south east England will rise by nearly one metre by the end of this century15, but predictions suggest that sea levels here could rise by perhaps four or even five metres by the end of the next century. I believe that the sea level rises will be at the higher end of predictions made by the IPCC16, and indeed nearly all past IPCC estimations of the rate of rise have had to be adjusted upwards. 9.

Climate Change and increased atmospheric warming means increased storm activity with more and larger hurricanes and cyclones, mainly but not exclusively in tropical areas. This is because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour so there will be heavier rains and greater floods. Stronger storms (winds) will be fuelled by latent heat which itself will induce fierce anti-cyclonic winds. On a world scale these cyclones and hurricanes have led to devastating floods in places such as Bangla Desh and New Orleans. But Britain will be similarly affected by storm activity. Increased winds will cause higher waves and thus a greater likelihood of marine flooding. If storms occur in conjunction with high tides then the flooding is increasingly likely to be on a very extensive scale, e.g. as happened in the well-documented 1953 floods along the North Sea coasts. The Environment Agency are finding it increasingly impossible to guarantee the protection of Britain‟s coastline, and indeed their recent Shoreline Management Plans have indicated that many stretches of our coastline will not be receiving further protection17. This will result in hardship, loss of property and an inability to sell properties in „condemned‟ areas.

10.

Climate Change has an impact on protected habitats. Most habitats having protected status have been selected on the basis of their uniqueness and/or their locational

13

See Wang, M. and Overland, J.E. (2009) A sea ice free summer within 30 years. Geophysical Research Letters. Vol.36. L07502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037820. 14

This means that the status (level) of the Earth’s crust is recovering to the position it held before the last Ice Age.

15

See http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm This is because the IPCC climate change report of 2007 excluded any possible contribution to sea level rise by Greenland or Antarctic ice melt, perhaps because they thought that this would be insignificant. This is not the case. 16

17

See http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/planning/104939.aspx and http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2005/2005_Hansen.pdf

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suitability, and protection may be afforded to flora and/or fauna or to complete ecosystems or broader habitats. In a recent study18 it was found that on average ecosystems are shifting polewards at about a quarter of a mile per year, but flatter, lowland habitats may be moving at up to 2/3rds of a mile per year. Nearly a third of the habitats in the study had „shift velocities‟ higher than even the most optimistic plant migration estimates, suggesting that plants in many areas will not be able to keep up with the shifting climate. Indeed, if temperatures increase by 2C as is widely forecast, boreal forests will need to move northwards by 5 kms per year, which is 10 times their maximum possible rate of advance19. These rates of vegetation advance will be disastrous in all natural habitats as there will not be time for any specific ecosystem to become established before it is „invaded‟ by its successor. Mass extinctions will also result from the fact that species cannot make the required physiological adaptations to keep abreast of temperature (or other climatic) changes. Additionally, most species will not be able to cross physical, topographic or urban barriers so as to move into suitable habitats. Ecosystems that will be particularly vulnerable will be those that are rare and thus occupy small areas, e.g. tropical mangroves, or those that are vulnerable to slight physical or environmental changes, e.g. coral reefs, and in fact most ecosystems that currently have high levels of protection. Coral reefs and other marine organisms are now increasingly being affected by the millions of tonnes of acidic gases that are entering sea water. Thus a process of acidification is affecting the way in which reefs and shells and other skeletal materials are failing to form properly20. The Earth‟s history shows that past global warming of several degrees caused mass extinctions of more than half the species on the planet, even though the natural climate changes were generally slower than the human-made changes that we are seeing today. Mass extinctions would leave our descendants with the prospects of a much more desolate planet. 11.

Other consequences of Climate Change that are severely impacting human welfare and economies include the related factors of drought, heat waves and forest fires. Over recent years each of these factors has occurred with both increasing regularity and severity, e.g. including the droughts in Niger, SE Australia, Amazonia and southern Russia in 2010. Heat waves have led to greatly increased mortality in places such as France and Russia, and 17 northern hemisphere countries have experienced record temperatures this summer21. Forest fires have raged through large areas of southern California, Greece, southern France, Australia and Russia. These related events have caused immense economic loss, loss of life, loss of property, food losses and desertification of the landscape. Increased mortality is likely to be caused by other factors. For example there will almost certainly be a spread of tropical diseases (such as malaria and dengue fever) as the „tropics‟ expand their distributions. Larger droughts will cause famine especially in already impoverished areas, and there is likely to be huge direct and indirect loss of life caused by flooding. The recent catastrophic flooding in Pakistan almost certainly resulted from the normal monsoon event being exacerbated by Climate Change. The billion dollar costs of these floods might better have been spent on welfare, education or health. It is somewhat ironic that in early January 2011 southern Australia is again suffering severe bush-fire threats whilst further north in

18

California Academy of Sciences (2009, December 24). Scientists map speed of climate change for different ecosystems. ScienceDaily. (See www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091223133337.htm) 19 See http://www.airclim.org/reports/documents/APC23_borealforest.pdf 20

See http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=653&ArticleID=6849&l=en&t=long 21

Details of all main heat waves in 2010 are given at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave

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Queensland they are suffering their worst ever flooding22, i.e. caused by unprecedented cyclonic rains. These floods have closed the main ports from which 65% of the world‟s tradable coking and thermal (power station) coal is shipped. So in Australia we are simultaneously witnessing both ends of the Climate Change cause and effect cycle. As these types of events occur with more frequency, then Climate Change increasingly becomes the root cause of severe financial hardship, with resources being diverted from human progress towards making reparations following human-induced disasters.

Reactions to Climate Change 12.

It needs to be stated that predictions of sea level rise and other manifestations of Climate Change are extremely difficult to make with accuracy because this depends on who is doing the projection, where the base lines are set and, of course, there are so many uncertainties surrounding the predictions. For instance, we know that there are so-called „tipping points‟. This means that if temperatures rise above certain critical points then some new and potentially dangerous process can be triggered. A good example of this is that there has recently been a huge increase in the rate of permafrost (frozen sub-soil) melting in North America and Siberia, and this is causing greatly enhanced releases of methane into the atmosphere. Additional methane is one of the most dangerous causes of global warming. On the broader „tipping point‟ scenario, scientists have calculated that if mean global temperatures rise by more than an additional 2C, then there will be nothing that mankind can do to prevent the acceleration of glacier ice melt and the Greenland ice sheet from melting. If this occurs sea levels will rise by about seven metres23. The property damage experienced under such a scenario will be catastrophic and irreversible, and indeed whole countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu would completely disappear. There is no indication that current collective human efforts to reduce greenhouse gas accumulations will be sufficient to prevent this 2C temperature rise. It is likely that there will be other tipping points that we are entirely unable to predict, but which will have unforeseen consequences. Indeed it has been suggested that the most urgent and necessary „tipping point‟ is a change in human attitudes and actions towards the potential dangers arising from Climate Change !24

13.

I believe that global temperatures will continue to increase at an accelerating rate. Recently the scientific adviser to the World Bank (Robert Watson) stated that within a relatively short time period temperatures will be 4C above pre-industrial (1750) levels25, and this fact was agreed by the British government‟s chief scientist (Professor John Beddington). Thus, global CO2 emissions are presently increasing at a rate exceeding those in the IPCC‟s highest emission scenarios, and if this trend persists, greenhouse gas concentrations will reach levels causing global warming of more than 4C. A recent study by the Meteorological Office said that such a 4C rise could come as soon as 2060 without urgent and serious action to reduce emissions26. A temperature rise of this magnitude will have catastrophic effects not only on sea level rise but, as previously mentioned, it will trigger mass extinctions of many of the planet‟s plant and animal species. Indeed it has been estimated that probably half of the world‟s species would be

22

An area the size of France and Germany combined is under water forming a vast inland sea. (See http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/31/australian-floodwaters-rise-bushfire-threat) 23

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise See http://motherjones.com/environment/2006/11/thirteenth-tipping-point 25 Reported in http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/06/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange 26 See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100714.html 24

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lost if temperatures rise to this level27. The huge range of implications for a planet that is 4C warmer are described in a recently released paper by New et al (2011)28. 14.

The IPCC has been warning for over a decade that societal responses to Climate Change have failed to live up to those necessary to ensure an acceptable planetary equilibrium in terms of human and other species welfare, and in terms of longer term ecosystems and environmental sustainability. Although many efforts have been made to achieve global agreements on measures to ameliorate the causes of Climate Change, and indeed to take the required actions to reverse the negative effects, these efforts have in no way been up to what is required. For instance, the Kyoto protocol, adopted in 1997 and effective from 2005 with “legally binding commitments” to reduce greenhouse gases, led to no such decrease and instead of emissions falling by 2 to 3% per annum they have continued to increase at about this same rate. The 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change talks failed to supplant or supplement the Kyoto Protocol, and failed to set a timetable for agreeing an enhanced treaty. It must also be remembered that about 45% of the world‟s population live in the rapidly developing countries such as Brazil, India and above all China, and the 2009 Copenhagen Accord specifically notes that “social and economic development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries”. These countries have economic growth rates of ~10% per annum. Economic growth rates are highly correlated with rates of greenhouse gas emissions. This means that, despite some „greening efforts‟, greenhouse gas emissions from these countries are likely to triple in the next 30 years. This is especially serious since new energy production facilities in both China and India comprise mainly of coal-fired power stations, the worst of the greenhouse gas polluters.

15.

At this point it is important to point out that there is a strong body of opinion that both national targets and international agreements on Climate Change goals are largely being inappropriately framed. Thus we see that targets are being set such that, for instance, country x promises to reduce CO2 emissions by 50% by the year 2030. In a recent paper29 by the director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (in Manchester), the authors point out that this type of target is almost meaningless since it takes no account of the essential factor that it is the cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at any one time that determines the amount of global warming that might occur. The use of reduction targets is, in practice, seriously underestimating the scale of the problem, i.e. the amount of greenhouse gas reduction that is actually needed. So we see, as mentioned in paragraph 14, that countries can set targets that look impressive but they are in no way sufficient to address the problem that the planet faces. Anderson and Bows therefore conclude that “there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2C now more appropriately represents the threshold between „dangerous‟ and „extremely dangerous‟ climate change.” (p.20). Given these assertions from such a respected climate change research centre, there is little wonder that members of the public might wish to attempt to exert extreme pressure on the authorities in order to achieve requisite actions.

27

Reported in http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/animal-extinction--the-greatest-threat-to-mankind397939.html 28 See New, M., Liverman, D., Schroder, H. And Anderson, K. (2011) Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implication. In Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society – A. Vol. 369, pp6-19. 29

Anderson, K. and Bows, A. (2010) Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. In Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. Vol.369. pp20-44.

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16.

To conclude this section, I sincerely believe that Climate Change, mainly in the form of global warming, is caused by increased emissions of a range of so-called „greenhouse gases‟ arising from various human activities, e.g. burning fossil fuels, deforestation, some forms of agriculture, etc. A main reason for accepting this belief is through acknowledgement of the huge advances made in Climate Science over the past few decades30. The single greatest contributor to global warming is the burning of coal and indeed about a 20% of all CO2 emissions are from this source. Despite warnings by several thousand climate change scientists, it is certain that greenhouse emissions are still rapidly accumulating in the atmosphere, and that these gases are having an increasingly negative impact on the planet and its people. I have alluded to these impacts by way of a Table. Collectively, it is the negative effect of the factors listed in Table 1 that are the root cause of dissatisfaction amongst an increasing segment of the world‟s peoples. But primarily it is the fact that governments, industry, the energy utilities and transport companies are totally failing to act in accordance with what is necessary to alleviate the problem. Their efforts are totally insufficient relative to the magnitude of the problem. The amount of harm inflicted by the effects of global warming, including many forms of death and destruction, is already high and is likely to increase rapidly in the near future.

Impacts of Climate Change on Manchester and the Mersey river catchment 17.

Having considered some general facts about Climate Change and its impacts, attention is now turned to the existing threats and possible consequences of fluvial (river) flooding at the local scale, i.e. around Manchester and in the Mersey catchment area. The purpose of this is to try to put into a local context the extent of the damage that is likely to occur following local river flooding events. In doing this we look at possible events that are likely to occur within a decadal to two centuries time scale.

18.

Manchester airport is located about 8 miles south, south west of the city centre. It is right on the River Bollin, a tributary of the River Mersey, and is sited almost centrally within the Mersey river catchment. The River Mersey and its main tributaries drain an area of 4,680 km2 and the catchment waters enter Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea via the wide Mersey estuary. The population of the catchment is about 5 million making this one of the most densely populated catchment areas in the UK, i.e. at about 1,075 people per square kilometre. In the past the area has focussed strongly on industrial production and in fact it has been called the cradle of the late 18th century industrial revolution. Although this pre-eminence of industry has declined, there are still substantial pockets of industry plus a high number of relatively large urban areas and a dense communications network.

19.

Relative to other areas of the UK the vulnerability of the Greater Manchester area to river flooding is comparatively high. This is as a result of several factors:

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Hills composed of mainly non-porous rocks surround the area to the north, the east and the south, and these encourage high rates of overland flows of surface waters following rainfall events.



In the north and east slopes are steep which encourages a rapid run-off of surface water.



Typical rainfall on the area is high with some areas experiencing double the national average rainfall figures.

See The Royal Society (September 2010) “Climate Change: A summary of the science.”

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

The high population density means that much of the landscape is covered with man-made non-porous surfaces over which rainfall rapidly makes its way into the natural drainage (river) systems.



Many man-made structures are located along valley bottoms which have provided permanent sources of water and convenient transport corridors. However, this means that many people and properties may be affected by flood events.

20.

It is of relevance to understand how well prepared is the Greater Manchester (or River Mersey catchment) area for flooding events. It is fortunate that a good deal of information is available via a series of Strategic Flood Risk Assessments (SFRA) that all local councils in England and Wales have been recently required to undertake, i.e. as an essential part of the pre-production/evidence gathering stage of the Local Development Framework (LDF) and in preparing their Local Development Documents (LDDs). SFRA‟s are being activated under the national government‟s Planning Policy Guidelines No. 25 (PPG25). This requires Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) to take a more dominant role in local flood risk management and to demonstrate that due regard has been given to the issue of flood risk at all levels of the planning process i.e. in order to avoid inappropriate local development. As a result of these requirements there is available up-to-date assessments of all areas in respect to the likelihood and extent of both river and marine flooding. In preparing this Statement of Witness most SFRA reports have been viewed and selected examples of the situation in most parts of the Mersey catchment have been exemplified in the following paragraphs (21 to 25).

21.

The Weaver/Gowy sub-catchments. This area drains the southern/central portion of the Mersey catchment. Here the topography is generally low lying consisting mainly of the Cheshire Plain. Higher relief surrounds the catchment with the Welsh Hills to the west, the Shropshire hills to the south and the Pennines to the east. Because the surrounding hills are composed of hard rocks, little infiltration occurs following rainfall and flooding has been frequent on the extensive plain. However, little property damage has been done because populations in this sub-catchment are relatively low. Nevertheless it has been noted that “Changes in catchment conditions such as shifts in agricultural practices, urban development and climate change may have had a contribution to more frequent flood events occurring over the last few decades across the catchment.” (p.7)31

22.

The Upper Mersey sub-catchment. This 1,052km2 catchment extends from the Pennines at its eastern boundary to the Cheshire Plains in the west. There is a general variation in topography from steep, upland areas in the upper catchment reaches to flat, lowland areas in the downstream reaches. There have been a number of historical floods over the last 50 years, with these mainly affecting the Manchester area, but the floods in October 1998 resulted in flooding on the River Bollin and River Dean leading to damage to properties in Macclesfield and Bollington. The catchment is heavily urbanised (27% of land use) so large populations are vulnerable to flooding. Flood alleviation occurs in this sub-catchment via reservoirs on some of the rivers, plus the fact that much of water drains into the Manchester Ship Canal thus providing a secondary outlet for flood waters, and rural parts of the floodplain have been used for flood storage during historical flood events. Many parts of the sub-catchment are vulnerable to 1 in 50 year severe flood events.

31

See www.cheshireeast.gov.uk/pdf/En-Pp-CheshireStrat.pdf

13

23.

The Lower Mersey sub-catchment. This is mainly the area between the Mersey estuary in the west and the outer suburbs of Manchester in the east. For the sake of reporting on this catchment the Manchester Ship Canal forms the southern boundary. About 40% of this sub-catchment is urban and 50% agricultural. The population density is high as this is mainly an older industrialised landscape. The urban landscape, in combination with extensive communications routes, contribute to a massive non-porous land surface and therefore to rapid rates of water drainage into the rivers. Fortuitously the Manchester Ship Canal has largely ceased to function for heavy shipping and its main role is really as a drainage outlet carrying increasing proportions of Mersey drainage waters into the estuary. The Warrington area is particularly at risk from tidal and river flooding and has records of flooding dating back to 1767. The most significant recent flood events were in February 1990 and October / November 2000. In February 1990 the River Mersey overtopped its banks flooding Knutsford Road and affecting properties in Westy, Latchford, Howley, Arpley Bridge and Lower Walton32.

24.

The River Irwell sub-catchment. The River Irwell forms the main drainage channel for the area to the north of Manchester. Here the rainfall is much higher than in other parts of the Mersey catchment (1,500 mm average annual), and the river and its tributaries respond very quickly to the high rainfall inputs. The waters pour from the Pennines, whose rocks constitute a barrier to infiltration, and the Irwell is the valley in which the most severe past flooding has occurred. There have been severe floods on numerous occasions with particularly bad events in 1768, 1816, 1866, 1946, 1954, 1980 and 2007. Sometimes flood waters have been 5 metres above bank level, in 1866 over 700 people had to be rescued from wrecked homes and in 1946 5,300 properties in Salford alone were flooded. Even today over 10,000 properties in Salford are in a high-risk flood zone33. Recent work has been undertaken to alleviate flooding risks but concern has been voiced that this work is only sufficient for a 1 in 75 year flooding event34.

25.

The Goyt and Etherow sub-catchments. The rivers in the NE of the Mersey catchment lie in the High Peak District Council area. On the county council‟s (Derbyshire) web-site there is a long list of rivers in this District that are liable to flash floods. The main town here, Glossop, has a history of flash flooding, the most recent being in 2002 when High Street West was flooded to a depth of 1 metre. The Council notes that with climate change, the High Peak Borough's risk areas are likely to flood more frequently, and flooding from other sources is also likely to increase35.

26.

In order now to demonstrate the possible repercussions of flooding in the area following increased winter storms, Figure 5 shows in some detail the area around Manchester. The total area shown here is 2,250 km2. The map illustrates the considerable urban nature of this area. Down the right hand side of the map are the foothills of the Pennines and the yellow borders shown here represent the western edge of the Peak District National Park. Across the top of the mapped area the terrain is also very hilly. The main river course of the Mersey is seen crossing the lower left hand side of the map. Many of its tributaries can also be seen. The area coloured in light blue represents all areas of

32

See http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Leisure/Warrington_Flood_Risk.pdf

33

See http://www.cabe.org.uk/case-studies/river-irwell

34

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Irwell#River_Irwell_Flood_Defence_Scheme

35

See http://www.highpeak.gov.uk/planning/localframework/EvidenceBase/floodrisk1.asp

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the map that are alongside rivers and that would be flooded if the flood waters were to reach 2 metres above the present river bank level. Obviously this map can only be generalised because of the highly variable local microtopography, as well as uncertainty regarding future climate changes – these facts preclude any detailed vulnerability analysis. So, given this flooding scenario, about 150 square kilometres of this mapped area would be flooded following a two metre above-bank flood. A flood of this depth is readily contemplated for this area during the rest of this century. What is easily seen from this map is that there are extensive areas of urban land that would be affected, and the resulting costs of flood damage alone could run into billions of pounds. The costs of preventing any future large-scale flood event in this area will also be exceedingly high. It is likely that the existing flood defences on average can perhaps only cope with 1 in 50 year flood events. This level of protection is totally insufficient for likely 21st century floods. New flood defences would be needed for all the built up areas along the valleys and these could cost a minimum of £15 million per km36. As well as affecting urban areas, future flood damage is likely to affect farm land, crops, infrastructure, bridges, utilities, and a range of businesses, and indeed the Manchester airport site itself is very vulnerable to any such future flooding. Obviously flood waters always move further downstream, and since this area is mostly composed of low lying flood plains then the effects here could also be catastrophic.

36

The huge future costs associated with flood defences are summarised in http://www.lloyds.com/News-andInsight/News-and-Features/Environment/Environment2009/UK_flood_defence_spending_must_double_to_avoid_disaster

15

Figure 5. The effects of a 2 metre flood throughout the Manchester area

27.

37

38

To summarise flooding potential in the Greater Manchester and Mersey catchment areas, it would true to state that the flood risk situation here is complex and includes interactions between many different water pathways, e.g. open and culverted watercourses, canals, groundwater and surface water, plus sewers and drains, and the fact that many reservoirs are sited on the catchment‟s rivers. This makes the modelling and/or forecasting of likely flood events extremely difficult. To add to this difficulty there is the fact that any rainfall event can vary infinitely in terms of its duration, intensity and aerial extent, and the ground may vary in terms of its degree of saturation and the nature of its surface cover. Additionally winters are likely to get 20% wetter in the North East by 205037. Despite these difficulties it is clear that the recent flood simulation modelling exercises reveal that significant portions of many of Greater Manchester‟s waterways are highly vulnerable to flooding at a greater frequency of 1 in 50 years38. In a recent study covering the future flooding potential in the Greater Manchester area, Dr Aleksandra

See http://www.cabe.org.uk/case-studies/river-irwell/description See Manchester City, Salford City and Trafford Councils. LEVEL 2 SFRA Final - March 2010

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Kazmierczak of the University of Manchester found that 14.2% of the area is presently susceptible to surface flooding (to a depth of 10cms) and 2.2% of the area is susceptible to flooding to a depth of at least 1 metre. He also noted that the incidence of flooding is increasing with 19 surface water flooding events being recorded between 1947 and 1997, but 31 similar flooding events between 1998 and 200839. For a detailed assessment of the current flooding risks in the central part of the Manchester area see Manchester City, Salford City and Trafford Councils Level 2 Hybrid SFRA (March 2010) by JBA Consulting 28.

Looking to the future, a major result of Climate Change for the UK will be increased winter rainfall. This is likely to come in the form of more high intensity rainfall events, and it is just such rainfall that is most likely to cause serious river flooding. This occurs because with heavy rain the ground rapidly becomes waterlogged and when further rainfall can no longer infiltrate the soil, then it runs off across the surface making its way downhill to the nearest stream. Streams swell quickly and water speeds may increase. Minor streams join with others to form major streams, and soon there can almost literally be a wall of water coming down the catchment. A recent account of flooding in the Swat valley of northern Pakistan described how water levels rose in some villages by 7 metres in about 5 minutes40. Similar events have occurred in the UK such as the Lynmouth disaster of 1952 and the Boscastle event of 2004, and more local to the north of England there was the less intensive but widespread flooding events of June 15th, 25th and July 9th, 2007 when heavy rainfall occurred over the north of Lincolnshire and the East Riding of Yorkshire. This lead to the disastrous flooding of Hull which affected more than 10,000 homes and to this day is causing inconvenience (this is described in detail in the following paragraphs 29 to 32). The Environment Agency has estimated that the total costs of the 2007 floods in England was £4 billion which was paid for by private individuals, business, insurance companies and local authorities41. Figure 6 gives a good indication of the location and extent of river flooding in 2007.

39

See http://www.sed.manchester.ac.uk/architecture/research/ecocities/events/ecocitiesevents/documents/Aleksandr aKazmierczak.pdf

41

See - Environment Agency, The costs of the summer 2007 floods in England, Project Summary, January 2010

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Figure 6. Location and extent of river flooding in 2007 as shown by numbers of insurance claims per local authority.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Humberside area 29.

It must be observed that any affects of climate change in terms of global warming will not be confined to the Manchester area. Thus activities contributing to global warming that are carried out in Manchester will simply contribute to the huge „global pool‟ of aggregated climate change effects, i.e. effects that may be felt world-wide. It is therefore valuable to introduce here a short case study showing the affects of climate change and consequent sea level rise on an example area just 80 miles to the east of Manchester. Figures 7 to 10 below show the present topography, location of larger towns and the coastline in the Humberside area of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. As well as showing the present coastline, maps show the potential position of the coastline following a 1 metre, 3m, and 5m rise in sea level. The term „potential position‟ is used because we do not know the level of coastal defences that might be built during the next two centuries, i.e. the likely time period over which this amount of sea-level rise could occur. Given the intentions of the authorities both to not hold the line on all future sea defences, and not to be able to afford the massive costs associated with building future defences of perhaps up to 4 metres higher than at present, then it is quite possible that nearly all of 18

these areas will be liable to future flooding, and that a good proportion of the area will be simply abandoned to the sea. It is clear from these maps that the really significant changes will occur at perhaps a two or three metre rise, and this is likely to occur around the middle of the next century. Areas very severely affected by sea level rise will be those to the south of the upper Humber estuary bordered by Goole, Scunthorpe, Gainsborough and Doncaster. This area is known as the Humberhead levels and it represents the location of the former (Ice Age) Lake Humber. By the time that a 5 metre sea level rise might occur (at the end of the next century), the former lake area is substantially increased in size, as is the width of the Humber estuary itself and are the lower valleys of the Hull, Ancholme, Don and Ouse rivers.

30.

It is difficult to be precise about the impact that sea level rise will have on a more specific scale in the mapped areas because the amount and extent of flooding is totally unpredictable. Any marine flood event is dependent on a number of factors - tide, winds, waves - which we cannot be specific on. It is also dependent on the strength of the flood defences at every point along the coast, and as was seen in the New Orleans flood of 2007, there may always be a weakest point that eventually gives way, but we do not know where that point will be. What we do know is that much of the coastal defences along the Humber were constructed following the 1953 floods and these are in urgent need of upgrading. We also know that seaside areas attract large populations and the

Current Sea Level

Figure 7. The present coastline in the Humberside area

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Current Sea Level + 1m

Figure 8. Position of the coastline in the Humberside area with a 1 metre rise in sea level

Current Sea Level + 3m

Figure 9. Position of the coastline in the Humberside area with a 3 metre rise in sea level

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Current Sea Level + 5m

Figure 10. Position of the coastline in the Humberside area with a 5 metre rise in sea level coastal areas here have many places where many hundreds of people live at little above sea level. A single flood event affecting any properties in these areas has an average remediation cost valued at 10% of the property‟s value, though it is much higher than this for people who are obliged to evacuate their homes. And increasingly we will find that insurance for any low lying properties is going to be harder to obtain or very much more expensive. We also know that there will be no compensation given to people who are obliged to vacate their homes due to managed reallignment42, i.e. where the sea will be allowed to encroach upon selected areas along the coast. Finally, a recent document published by DEFRA underlines that, with the severe cutbacks now being made in government expenditure, there is strong concern about where money will come from to pay for future flood defences43. Here they note “However, it is an inescapable fact that the Comprehensive Spending Review funding settlement represents a cut to flooding budgets. This is against a background where funding for flood defences has been judged to be inadequate.” (page 45). 31.

A further important factor to consider is that most of the coastline, including the whole of the Humber estuary, is already protected from flooding or coastal erosion by various sea defences, e.g. sea walls, promenades, revetments, etc. Whilst during normal times these defences work to prevent attacks from the sea, they do have several long term negative effects. Firstly, in the more exposed marine areas along the North Sea coast, because of the sea defences, waves cannot naturally run up and down the beach, and instead they crash against defences. As they continue to do this the beach level gradually drops, i.e.

42

See http://www.coastman.net.co/publicaciones/cc/(0049).pdf

43

See – House of Commons, Future flood and Water Management Legislation, DEFRA (December 2010.

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by perhaps several centimetres per year. Lower beach levels naturally mean deeper water and in turn an increasing wave strength and height. This is because when waves travel across deeper beaches their energy is not absorbed; shallow beaches exert lots of friction on the waves so they quickly lose their energy. So when future storm surges occur they will almost certainly be accompanied by much higher waves, especially in those vulnerable areas that are presently defended by sea walls. Unless substantial extra funding is spent on wider, deeper and stronger sea defences, then breaching of the defences is much more likely and the potential for flooding is enhanced. Secondly, in the more sheltered areas that are presently defended, such as the whole of the Humber estuary, a process called „coastal squeeze‟ occurs. This means that as sea levels rise the extensive areas of mud flats or salt marsh that lie between the sea defence and the water will gradually disappear – they will literally be drowned out. For Humberside especially this will incur a huge loss of intertidal habitats; marine ecosystems that are currently the basis of many designated natural areas. These intertidal habitats act as important staging posts for migrating birds, and with their loss the birds will have no stopover resting or feeding sites. Thirdly, accompanying this encroachment of the sea there will be saline intrusions into what are presently fresh groundwater sources, and this is already being recorded for the lower Humber estuary. And finally, the existence of flood defences exacerbates the long term flood risk because, if an area is naturally flooded, then sediments are laid down which increase the height of the land. Sea walls prevent this, and over time there is an increasing height differential between marine waters and the land behind the defences. This is very noticeable along the Humber estuary. 32.

The situation around Hull is particularly worrying. About 90% of the city‟s area is presently below the highest tidal levels, with 300,000 people living here. Although present defences from marine flooding are adequate in the event of normal (say 1 in 50 year marine flood events), the 2000 Humber Shoreline Management Plan indicated that unless £300 million is spent in the very near future on improving sea flood defences along the Humber, then 70% of the defences will be unsatisfactory by 205044. There is no indication that this level of spending for this purpose is presently available. And indeed the existing defences were built to contain a 1 in 200 year flood event, but it is now thought that many of these defences can only cope with a 1 in 5 year flood event.

Conclusion 33.

There has been plenty of evidence over at least the last decade to show that climate related disasters are becoming more frequent. There has also been a wealth of climatic modelling done by numerous institutions throughout the world, and on the basis of this it is relatively simple to list a wide range of scenarios in which the human condition will be increasingly affected. However, a problem that anyone considering these issues must now face is that specific scenarios will be difficult to accurately forecast, they will be unpredictable, incrementally more frequent, far more widespread and extensive human resources will be forfeited to ameliorate each situation. So, it will be difficult to perceive of the immensity of future widespread property damage and of personal losses caused by Climate Change. Despite the widely known prognostications of the seriousness of the situation, and given that the UK government is fully aware of:  the scientific consensus behind the facts relating to climate change,  the actual rises in greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures,

44

Available at http://www.hull.ac.uk/coastalobs/general/erosionandflooding/shorelinemanagmentplans.html

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  

that a succession of tipping points will be rapidly reached, that coal is the largest source of the Climate Change problem, that the UK is the nation having produced more greenhouse gases per capita than any other nation,  that Climate Change will impact the planet in a large number of different ways,  that government, utilities and the fossil fuel industry continues to produce a succession of “greenwash”, then in view of the fact that our greenhouse emissions are still rising and the climate change situation is getting worse, it appears true that our government is more willing “to accept a high probability of extremely dangerous Climate Change rather than propose radical and immediate emission reduction measures”45. It is therefore of little surprise that members of the public feel obliged to take matters into their own hands in an attempt to draw to the society‟s attention the urgency of the climate change crisis that we now all face.

Declaration 1.

I understand that my duty in providing written reports and giving evidence is to help the Court, and that this duty overrides any obligation to the party by whom I am engaged or the person who has paid or is liable to pay me. I confirm that I have complied and will continue to comply with my duty.

2.

I confirm that insofar as the facts stated in my report are within my own knowledge I have made clear which they are and I believe them to be true, and that the opinions I have expressed represent my true and complete professional opinion.

3.

I have endeavoured to include in my report those matters, of which I have knowledge or of which I have been made aware, that might adversely affect the validity of my opinion. I have clearly stated any qualifications to my opinion.

4.

I have shown the sources of all information I have used.

5.

I have not without forming an independent view included or excluded anything which has been suggested to me by others including my instructing lawyers.

6.

I will notify those instructing me immediately and confirm in writing if for any reason my existing report requires any correction or qualification.

7.

I understand that; a)

45

my report, subject to any corrections before swearing as to its correctness, will form the evidence to be given under oath or affirmation;

See Anderson and Bows (2010) – footnote 25 above.

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8.

b)

I may be cross-examined on my report by a cross-examiner assisted by an expert;

c)

I am likely to be the subject of public adverse criticism by the judge if the Court concludes that I have not taken reasonable care in trying to meet the standards set out above.

I confirm that I have not entered into any arrangement where the amount or payment of my fees is in any way dependent on the outcome of the case.

Signed:…………………………………………… Signature Witnessed By:……………………………........

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