Striped catfish farming in the Mekong Delta:
Striped catfish farming in the Mekong Delta:
Industry capacity & vulnerability
Vulnerability to development & climate change
Adaptive Capacity (continued) 450
diminishing supplies of wild-caught fish by using protein and oil substitutes, for
400
example, soybean and maize, to manufacture feed. Indeed, soybean meal use
350
by the aquaculture sector has risen sharply in recent years and further increas-
300
es in demand appear likely. However, less favorable rates of growth and product quality are achieved using these types of substitutes which would threaten the economic viability of existing operations as grow-out periods are extended
$ / tonne
Since the striped catfish is omnivorous, the industry might seek to adapt to the
Soybean meal, $/mt, real 2005$
A Scientific Brief
250
Ja n u a r y 2 0 1 3
200 150
and feed inputs increased to compensate diminished rates of growth. Moreo-
100
ver, protein and oil substitutes are themselves becoming less affordable as their
50
demand as biofuel and for direct consumption grows (Figure 3). This demand is
Soybean meal, $/mt, nominal$
0
expected to grow further in response to anticipated climate change related impacts on tropical terrestrial agriculture. The formulation of cost effective feeds that preserve protein and energy content will therefore be an important adaptation measure to maintain or expand production.
T he f orm ulation of c os t eff ect iv e feeds t hat pres erv e prot ein and energy c ont ent w ill be an im port ant adapt ation m eas ure t o m aintain or ex pand product ion.
Year Figure 3 Global market price for soybean meal, 1990 - 2011. Source: World data Bank.
Vulnerability Striped catfish farming in the Vietnamese Delta is vulnerable to development and climate change via several important pathways of potential impact. A great deal of uncertainty exists regarding which of these pathways of impact will have most bearing on the sector and therefore where adaptive management efforts might best be focused to reduce vulnerability. In particularly, whether water quality in the Delta will deteriorate to cause significant physiological, and perhaps more importantly, contaminant-related product safety, impacts. Given the industry’s already fragile reputation for product safety on its important international markets and that water treatment facilities and adaptation strategies are likely to add to production costs, addressing this uncertainty will be a priority. Less uncertainty surrounds future supplies of wild-caught fish and derivatives (fish meal and oil) used to manufacture both farm-made and commercial pellet feeds. Supplies are highly likely to decline in the future, both locally, regionally and globally exacerbating their upward cost trends. Doubt surrounds the cost-effectiveness of their substitutes which are themselves becoming more expensive. To maintain output from existing small-scale operators that are already struggling to make a profit but are still responsible for the bulk of
Is st riped c atf is h farm ing in t he Vietnam es e D elt a v ulnerable t o planned dev elopm ent and clim at e c hange in t he Low er M ek ong Bas in?
output from other producers including China, this market response seems unlikely. The industry might also be further burdened with additional costs associated with farm relocation, flood control and investment to improve broodstock management. Without the necessary compensatory market price rises, declines in farm profit and output would be expected, impacting upon dependent livelihoods and the wider economy. This conclusion has far reaching implications for food security beyond the Delta by challenging the widely-held assertion among basin development planners that aquaculture production will continue its path of growth to compensate the expected declines in yield from capture fisheries.
Priority Research Further research to improve this vulnerability assessment is described in the main report (see below). Perhaps most pressing is the need to more reliably determine the reliance of the sector on the supply of wild fish for feed from the inland and coastal fisheries of the Vietnamese Delta that are most vulnerable to development related impacts. Other priority research topics include: (i) physiological responses and tolerances of Pangasius to temperature, dissolved oxygen and salinity concentrations; (ii) water quality under future basin development scenarios; (iii) food safety of Pangasius products in response to water quality conditions, particularly pollutant and contaminant concentrations; (iv) the economic viability
Twitter: @FishSource Facebook: www.facebook.com/ SustainableFish Email: [email protected] Website: www.sustainablefish.org/
The culture of Pangasius catfish has been practiced in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam for centuries. Now it is based almost exclusively on the intensive pond culture of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) exploiting its rapid growth, omnivorous diet, low dissolved oxygen tolerance, and white flesh. During the last decade, output from the sector, mostly exported to the EU and USA, has grown almost exponentially to more than a million tonnes per year with a value ap-
total production, international market demand will need to be inelastic to any necessary product price rises driven by rising feed costs. Given the downward trend in prices for Pangasius products over the past decade, and with growing
The Vulnerability Study
T his brief s eek s t o ans w er t his quest ion following t he rec ent announc em ent by t he Gov ernm ent of Lao PD R t o proc eed w it h the c ons truct ion of the f irst m ainst ream dam on t he low er M ek ong R iv er.
proaching $2 billion making a significant contribution to the country’s GDP and supporting the livelihoods of an estimated 180,000 - 200,000 people in the Delta, predominantly the rural poor. Separate seed, nursery and grow-out systems supporting a large processing sector.
Most farms are still
relatively small, farmer-owned holdings covering an average area of less than 5 ha. In recent years there has been a growth in large operations that vertically integrate seed, nursery, grow-out and processing systems supporting economies of scale. However, most large processors still rely on fresh supplies of catfish from small-scale farming operations to supplement their own production.
of alternative sources of protein and oils for feed; and (v) international markets for Pangasius products, their driving forc-
During the next 20 years, the industry will be exposed
es and price elasticity of demand.
to significant changes to biophysical conditions caused
Further Information Further information about the study including a copy of the report1 can be downloaded from the SFP website at http:// www.sustainablefish.org/. The study findings will also be presented at the Mekong Environmental Symposium 2013 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, from March 5th - 7th, 2013. http://www.mekong-environmental-symposium-2013.org/
frontend/index.php. 1
Halls, A.S., & M. Johns. (2013). Assessment of the vulnerability of the Mekong Delta Pangasius catfish industry to development and climate change in the lower Mekong basin. Report prepared for the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership, January 2013, 95 pp.
by upstream basin development and also climate change. With funding from the MacArthur Foundation, the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership (SFP) commissioned a recently published study1 to identify potential impacts on the industry arising from this exposure, and the ways in which the industry might effectively manage
or mitigate them to reduce its vulnerability with the support of its stakeholders. The study reviewed more than 75 relevant scientific papers and reports including impact assessments published by the Mekong River Commission (MRC) Secretariat in support of its Basin Development Plan (BDP). This brief aims to raise awareness among the industry’s main stakeholders, including policy makers, producers, food companies, retailers and the research community, of the main findings of the study including priority research.
The
full report is available for download from the SFP website.
What changes will the industry be exposed to?
What impacts and adaptations are likely?
Exposure
Only
achieved by the majority of small-
In locations where water quality is
Herbicide and pesticide concentra-
pected to increase both the wet sea-
tions are also predicted to increase in
Sensitivity & Potential Impacts
son and dry flows in the Delta by an
the order of 80 % across the basin,
Because of the diluting effects of
scale farmers.
Most profit is cap-
significantly affected by pollution,
estimated 2 – 6 % and 11 – 13 %,
and by 15 % and 5 % in the Delta,
increasing dry season flows, dimin-
tured by retailers and processors.
eutrophication and rising ambient
respectively.
respectively.
ished downstream transport of sedi-
Profit is highly sensitive to both mar-
temperature, farmers might autono-
ments and anticipated effective treat-
ket prices, which have fallen almost
mously adapt by increasing feed
Flow and water quality responses
The downstream supply of suspend-
ment of domestic and industrial
every year since 2004, as well as
inputs, drug applications, and stock-
The MRC’s modelling studies indicate
ed sediment to the Delta is expected
waste, nutrient concentrations in the
feed costs that typically account for
ing fry/fingerlings at higher densities
that flows in the Delta during the dry
to diminish by approximately 75 % as
Delta during the next 20 years are
75 - 80 % of variable costs in grow-
to compensate diminishing growth
season will increase by 17 - 20 %.
it accumulates behind dam walls
predicted to remain below “threshold
out operations.
Some farmers are
and survival rates. However, these
Almost no change in flow is predicted
threatening the delivery of bio-limiting
values” and are not expected to
forced to suspend production until
responses would invariably diminish
for the wet season. Average annual
nutrients to both the Delta and off-
impact on Pangasius farming, alt-
farm-gate prices for their products
farm profits and threaten product
During the next 20 years, a further 56
flows will therefore increase only mar-
shore coastal zones, and the struc-
hough localized eutrophication may
reach a viable threshold.
safety.
tributary dams and 11 mainstream
ginally (2 - 6 %).
tural stability of river channels and
occur.
Mekong Delta for aquaculture (and other uses) are heavily influenced by upstream development. Hydropower dams constructed in the upper part of the basin and on tributaries in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) are already changing the Mekong’s flow regime.
dams may be constructed in the LMB (Figure 1). These dams, together with a major expansion of irrigated agricul-
“Vul ner abili ty i s a measur e of potenti al i mpact after accounti ng for adapti ve capacity”.
ture and growing domestic and industrial water consumption and waste water discharges have the potential to modify flows and water quality for striped catfish farming in the Delta.
are
Diminishing supplies of wild-caught
Planned adaptation strategies imple-
fish and derivatives for feed in re-
mented under local management
Commercial pellet feed. Photo: Sam Eaton, Marketplace, July 2012.
Other responses
projected growth in herbicide and
sponse to development in the LMB
plans could be more effective, but not
tially supporting the expansion of oper-
The industry will be exposed to other
pesticide use will raise concentra-
and climate change would place
without cost. They might include the
ations and improving water quality by
changes that have the potential to
tions of harmful chemicals in fish
further pressure on farm profit as
installation of treatment facilities at
1,800
dilution, particularly during the dry
impact upon its operations. In partic-
tissue to above detectable and ac-
their costs rise (Figure 2) and ulti-
water intakes; pond aeration; im-
1,600
season.
ular, the supply of wild-caught small,
ceptable thresholds in the foreseea-
mately make their use in farm feeds
proved management and treatment
1,400 1,200
low-value fish, used either whole
ble future. International market confi-
prohibitively expensive, impacting on
of wastewater; and greater regulation
However, water quality will be affected
(‘trash fish’) or after processing into
production and industry-dependent
over the use of drug treatments.
in other ways besides the effects of
dence surrounding the food safety of
meal and oil, to make both farm-
livelihoods.
Measures to deal with raised concen-
dilution. Water temperature is likely to
Pangasius products from the Mekong
made and commercial (pellet) feeds.
Delta has become of paramount
casted ambient change.
A marginal
The industry could be utilizing 1.4
decline in oxygen solubility within pond
million tonnes of wild-caught fish.
waters would be expected in response.
This fish is caught locally from inland
trations of herbicides and pesticide
importance to the industry in recent
MRC studies suggest that the supply
years.
of inland fish in the LMB could de-
Being a facultative air-breather, the
contaminants are yet to be identified.
200
years in response to planned devel-
0
striped catfish would be tolerant of
opment, mainly as a consequence of the barrier effects of dams on fish
sponse to the spatial changes in
water in the Delta have been forecast-
lowered dissolved oxygen concentra-
from other countries in the form of
ed in response to flow change and sea
tions caused by elevated water tem-
migrations.
salinity concentration in the Delta.
fish meal, oil, and feed.
peratures but air-breathing or in-
The development of more saline
creased gill ventilation rates might
Owing to the longevity (typically less
tolerant strains of catfish has been
increase energetic costs and the
than 3 years) of most inland whitefish
advocated but the feasibility and
uptake of aquatic pollutants. Ther-
species used as farm feed, a decline
necessity of this technology requires further investigation.
water (> 5 g/l) in the Mekong River will
Vietnamese coastal and inland fish-
increase upstream towards Vinh Long
eries are likely to be major sources
affecting some areas of Ben Tre, Tra
because of the widespread use of
Vinh and Vinh Long whilst saline intru-
mally-stressed fish might also be
in their supply could occur rapidly in
inland and marine ‘trash fish’ by
sion in the Bassac River will move
more susceptible to infectious dis-
response to dam completion.
farmers and the enormous supply (>
seaward from Can Tho, reducing sa-
1 M t yr-1) of ‘trash fish’ from Vi-
ease. Combined, these effects could
line conditions and potentially improv-
etnam’s marine fishing industry.
ing conditions for Pangasius farms
diminish rates of growth and survival in nursery and grow out operations.
In the longer term, broodstock manBelonging to the migratory whitefish
agement practices that do not rely on
group, Pangasius catfish are them-
the
selves also vulnerable to the barrier
individuals will be necessary. Flood
replenishment
of
wild-caught
located in parts of Tra Vinh, Can Tho,
Inland fish used as feed are typically
The total output from the industry is
effects of dams described above.
protection works to adapt to the com-
Hau Giang, and Soc Tranh. However,
whitefish species whose migrations
unlikely to change significantly in
Future supplies of broodstock from
bined effects of coastal erosion,
Figure 1. Planned development in the LMB during the next 20 years. Source: MRCS.
the overall area of the Delta affected
are threatened by mainstream dam
response to the forecasted changes
the wild (mostly from Cambodia) are
increased storminess and a rising
by salinity will remain virtually un-
development. Diminished delivery of
in salinity distribution in the Delta.
therefore also threatened.
sea level might also be required.
The climate in the Vietnamese Delta is
changed from the present.
nutrient-bearing sediments threatens
Yields are reported invariant to farm
ecosystem production in the Delta
distance from the sea and the striped
The effects of reduced sediment
Adapting
supply, increased storminess and
declines in the supply of trash fish,
rising sea levels are likely to occur
fish meal and oil for feed is likely to
mainly at coastal margins and there-
be more challenging, affecting every
fore are unlikely to affect existing
type of operator, but particularly the
farm operations significantly, at least
small-scale grow-out farmer for which
during the foreseeable (20 year)
the cost of feed is a major determi-
future.
nant of their continued participation in
also changing and expected to change further in the future. Annual average
Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus)
and coastal zones and thereby the
loads are likely to increase by 28 % in
catfish is tolerant of salinities of up to
temperature in the LMB is predicted to
supply of estuarine and marine fish
13 ppt without compromising its
increase by approximately 1°C by
the Delta in response to the planned
for feed. Even imported supplies of
2050. Sea level is expected to rise
expansion and intensification of agri-
fish meal are threatened by the ef-
17cm by 2030 accompanied by more
culture in the LMB. Loadings of these
fects of global changes to ocean
frequent and intense typhoons espe-
pollutants from urban sources is pre-
conditions and productivity caused by
cially during El Ninõ years.
dicted to rise by almost 50 % in re-
climate change.
sponse to population growth.
growth or survival, possibly reflecting a marine ancestry. Some redistribution of production and livelihood opportunities among affected areas might occur.
600
has been dismissed as being a prac-
coastal habitats, as well as imported
Intrusion of more saline
800
Relocating farms further upstream
Changes to the distribution of saline
level rise.
Fishmeal, $/mt, real 2005$
1,000
cline by 40 - 60 % in the next 20
ticable adaptation strategy in re-
estuarine
Fishmeal, $/mt, nominal$
400
and
(river/floodplains),
“Adapti ve capaci ty is a mea sur e of the abil i ty to cope wi th or mi ti gate i mpact”.
profits
benefit the aquaculture sector, poten-
rise, possibly by as much as the fore-
“Potenti al i mpact is deter mi ned by exposur e and sensi ti vi ty to changi ng conditions”.
marginal
It remains uncertain whether the
the coastline. These flow increases are expected to
very
$ / tonne
The quality and quantity of water in the
What do we mean by vul ner abil ity?
Adaptive Capacity
Precipitation in the LMB is also ex-
to
the industry.
(potentially
sudden)
Year Figure 2 Global market price for fish meal, 1990 - 2011. Source: World data Bank.
Industry capacity & vulnerability
Vulnerability to development & climate change
Adaptive Capacity (continued) 450
diminishing supplies of wild-caught fish by using protein and oil substitutes, for
400
example, soybean and maize, to manufacture feed. Indeed, soybean meal use
350
by the aquaculture sector has risen sharply in recent years and further increas-
300
es in demand appear likely. However, less favorable rates of growth and product quality are achieved using these types of substitutes which would threaten the economic viability of existing operations as grow-out periods are extended
$ / tonne
Since the striped catfish is omnivorous, the industry might seek to adapt to the
Soybean meal, $/mt, real 2005$
A Scientific Brief
250
Ja n u a r y 2 0 1 3
200 150
and feed inputs increased to compensate diminished rates of growth. Moreo-
100
ver, protein and oil substitutes are themselves becoming less affordable as their
50
demand as biofuel and for direct consumption grows (Figure 3). This demand is
Soybean meal, $/mt, nominal$
0
expected to grow further in response to anticipated climate change related impacts on tropical terrestrial agriculture. The formulation of cost effective feeds that preserve protein and energy content will therefore be an important adaptation measure to maintain or expand production.
T he f orm ulation of c os t eff ect iv e feeds t hat pres erv e prot ein and energy c ont ent w ill be an im port ant adapt ation m eas ure t o m aintain or ex pand product ion.
Year Figure 3 Global market price for soybean meal, 1990 - 2011. Source: World data Bank.
Vulnerability Striped catfish farming in the Vietnamese Delta is vulnerable to development and climate change via several important pathways of potential impact. A great deal of uncertainty exists regarding which of these pathways of impact will have most bearing on the sector and therefore where adaptive management efforts might best be focused to reduce vulnerability. In particularly, whether water quality in the Delta will deteriorate to cause significant physiological, and perhaps more importantly, contaminant-related product safety, impacts. Given the industry’s already fragile reputation for product safety on its important international markets and that water treatment facilities and adaptation strategies are likely to add to production costs, addressing this uncertainty will be a priority. Less uncertainty surrounds future supplies of wild-caught fish and derivatives (fish meal and oil) used to manufacture both farm-made and commercial pellet feeds. Supplies are highly likely to decline in the future, both locally, regionally and globally exacerbating their upward cost trends. Doubt surrounds the cost-effectiveness of their substitutes which are themselves becoming more expensive. To maintain output from existing small-scale operators that are already struggling to make a profit but are still responsible for the bulk of
Is st riped c atf is h farm ing in t he Vietnam es e D elt a v ulnerable t o planned dev elopm ent and clim at e c hange in t he Low er M ek ong Bas in?
output from other producers including China, this market response seems unlikely. The industry might also be further burdened with additional costs associated with farm relocation, flood control and investment to improve broodstock management. Without the necessary compensatory market price rises, declines in farm profit and output would be expected, impacting upon dependent livelihoods and the wider economy. This conclusion has far reaching implications for food security beyond the Delta by challenging the widely-held assertion among basin development planners that aquaculture production will continue its path of growth to compensate the expected declines in yield from capture fisheries.
Priority Research Further research to improve this vulnerability assessment is described in the main report (see below). Perhaps most pressing is the need to more reliably determine the reliance of the sector on the supply of wild fish for feed from the inland and coastal fisheries of the Vietnamese Delta that are most vulnerable to development related impacts. Other priority research topics include: (i) physiological responses and tolerances of Pangasius to temperature, dissolved oxygen and salinity concentrations; (ii) water quality under future basin development scenarios; (iii) food safety of Pangasius products in response to water quality conditions, particularly pollutant and contaminant concentrations; (iv) the economic viability
Twitter: @FishSource Facebook: www.facebook.com/ SustainableFish Email: [email protected] Website: www.sustainablefish.org/
The culture of Pangasius catfish has been practiced in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam for centuries. Now it is based almost exclusively on the intensive pond culture of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) exploiting its rapid growth, omnivorous diet, low dissolved oxygen tolerance, and white flesh. During the last decade, output from the sector, mostly exported to the EU and USA, has grown almost exponentially to more than a million tonnes per year with a value ap-
total production, international market demand will need to be inelastic to any necessary product price rises driven by rising feed costs. Given the downward trend in prices for Pangasius products over the past decade, and with growing
The Vulnerability Study
T his brief s eek s t o ans w er t his quest ion following t he rec ent announc em ent by t he Gov ernm ent of Lao PD R t o proc eed w it h the c ons truct ion of the f irst m ainst ream dam on t he low er M ek ong R iv er.
proaching $2 billion making a significant contribution to the country’s GDP and supporting the livelihoods of an estimated 180,000 - 200,000 people in the Delta, predominantly the rural poor. Separate seed, nursery and grow-out systems supporting a large processing sector.
Most farms are still
relatively small, farmer-owned holdings covering an average area of less than 5 ha. In recent years there has been a growth in large operations that vertically integrate seed, nursery, grow-out and processing systems supporting economies of scale. However, most large processors still rely on fresh supplies of catfish from small-scale farming operations to supplement their own production.
of alternative sources of protein and oils for feed; and (v) international markets for Pangasius products, their driving forc-
During the next 20 years, the industry will be exposed
es and price elasticity of demand.
to significant changes to biophysical conditions caused
Further Information Further information about the study including a copy of the report1 can be downloaded from the SFP website at http:// www.sustainablefish.org/. The study findings will also be presented at the Mekong Environmental Symposium 2013 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, from March 5th - 7th, 2013. http://www.mekong-environmental-symposium-2013.org/
frontend/index.php. 1
Halls, A.S., & M. Johns. (2013). Assessment of the vulnerability of the Mekong Delta Pangasius catfish industry to development and climate change in the lower Mekong basin. Report prepared for the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership, January 2013, 95 pp.
by upstream basin development and also climate change. With funding from the MacArthur Foundation, the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership (SFP) commissioned a recently published study1 to identify potential impacts on the industry arising from this exposure, and the ways in which the industry might effectively manage
or mitigate them to reduce its vulnerability with the support of its stakeholders. The study reviewed more than 75 relevant scientific papers and reports including impact assessments published by the Mekong River Commission (MRC) Secretariat in support of its Basin Development Plan (BDP). This brief aims to raise awareness among the industry’s main stakeholders, including policy makers, producers, food companies, retailers and the research community, of the main findings of the study including priority research.
The
full report is available for download from the SFP website.
What changes will the industry be exposed to?
What impacts and adaptations are likely?
Exposure
Only
achieved by the majority of small-
In locations where water quality is
Herbicide and pesticide concentra-
pected to increase both the wet sea-
tions are also predicted to increase in
Sensitivity & Potential Impacts
son and dry flows in the Delta by an
the order of 80 % across the basin,
Because of the diluting effects of
scale farmers.
Most profit is cap-
significantly affected by pollution,
estimated 2 – 6 % and 11 – 13 %,
and by 15 % and 5 % in the Delta,
increasing dry season flows, dimin-
tured by retailers and processors.
eutrophication and rising ambient
respectively.
respectively.
ished downstream transport of sedi-
Profit is highly sensitive to both mar-
temperature, farmers might autono-
ments and anticipated effective treat-
ket prices, which have fallen almost
mously adapt by increasing feed
Flow and water quality responses
The downstream supply of suspend-
ment of domestic and industrial
every year since 2004, as well as
inputs, drug applications, and stock-
The MRC’s modelling studies indicate
ed sediment to the Delta is expected
waste, nutrient concentrations in the
feed costs that typically account for
ing fry/fingerlings at higher densities
that flows in the Delta during the dry
to diminish by approximately 75 % as
Delta during the next 20 years are
75 - 80 % of variable costs in grow-
to compensate diminishing growth
season will increase by 17 - 20 %.
it accumulates behind dam walls
predicted to remain below “threshold
out operations.
Some farmers are
and survival rates. However, these
Almost no change in flow is predicted
threatening the delivery of bio-limiting
values” and are not expected to
forced to suspend production until
responses would invariably diminish
for the wet season. Average annual
nutrients to both the Delta and off-
impact on Pangasius farming, alt-
farm-gate prices for their products
farm profits and threaten product
During the next 20 years, a further 56
flows will therefore increase only mar-
shore coastal zones, and the struc-
hough localized eutrophication may
reach a viable threshold.
safety.
tributary dams and 11 mainstream
ginally (2 - 6 %).
tural stability of river channels and
occur.
Mekong Delta for aquaculture (and other uses) are heavily influenced by upstream development. Hydropower dams constructed in the upper part of the basin and on tributaries in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) are already changing the Mekong’s flow regime.
dams may be constructed in the LMB (Figure 1). These dams, together with a major expansion of irrigated agricul-
“Vul ner abili ty i s a measur e of potenti al i mpact after accounti ng for adapti ve capacity”.
ture and growing domestic and industrial water consumption and waste water discharges have the potential to modify flows and water quality for striped catfish farming in the Delta.
are
Diminishing supplies of wild-caught
Planned adaptation strategies imple-
fish and derivatives for feed in re-
mented under local management
Commercial pellet feed. Photo: Sam Eaton, Marketplace, July 2012.
Other responses
projected growth in herbicide and
sponse to development in the LMB
plans could be more effective, but not
tially supporting the expansion of oper-
The industry will be exposed to other
pesticide use will raise concentra-
and climate change would place
without cost. They might include the
ations and improving water quality by
changes that have the potential to
tions of harmful chemicals in fish
further pressure on farm profit as
installation of treatment facilities at
1,800
dilution, particularly during the dry
impact upon its operations. In partic-
tissue to above detectable and ac-
their costs rise (Figure 2) and ulti-
water intakes; pond aeration; im-
1,600
season.
ular, the supply of wild-caught small,
ceptable thresholds in the foreseea-
mately make their use in farm feeds
proved management and treatment
1,400 1,200
low-value fish, used either whole
ble future. International market confi-
prohibitively expensive, impacting on
of wastewater; and greater regulation
However, water quality will be affected
(‘trash fish’) or after processing into
production and industry-dependent
over the use of drug treatments.
in other ways besides the effects of
dence surrounding the food safety of
meal and oil, to make both farm-
livelihoods.
Measures to deal with raised concen-
dilution. Water temperature is likely to
Pangasius products from the Mekong
made and commercial (pellet) feeds.
Delta has become of paramount
casted ambient change.
A marginal
The industry could be utilizing 1.4
decline in oxygen solubility within pond
million tonnes of wild-caught fish.
waters would be expected in response.
This fish is caught locally from inland
trations of herbicides and pesticide
importance to the industry in recent
MRC studies suggest that the supply
years.
of inland fish in the LMB could de-
Being a facultative air-breather, the
contaminants are yet to be identified.
200
years in response to planned devel-
0
striped catfish would be tolerant of
opment, mainly as a consequence of the barrier effects of dams on fish
sponse to the spatial changes in
water in the Delta have been forecast-
lowered dissolved oxygen concentra-
from other countries in the form of
ed in response to flow change and sea
tions caused by elevated water tem-
migrations.
salinity concentration in the Delta.
fish meal, oil, and feed.
peratures but air-breathing or in-
The development of more saline
creased gill ventilation rates might
Owing to the longevity (typically less
tolerant strains of catfish has been
increase energetic costs and the
than 3 years) of most inland whitefish
advocated but the feasibility and
uptake of aquatic pollutants. Ther-
species used as farm feed, a decline
necessity of this technology requires further investigation.
water (> 5 g/l) in the Mekong River will
Vietnamese coastal and inland fish-
increase upstream towards Vinh Long
eries are likely to be major sources
affecting some areas of Ben Tre, Tra
because of the widespread use of
Vinh and Vinh Long whilst saline intru-
mally-stressed fish might also be
in their supply could occur rapidly in
inland and marine ‘trash fish’ by
sion in the Bassac River will move
more susceptible to infectious dis-
response to dam completion.
farmers and the enormous supply (>
seaward from Can Tho, reducing sa-
1 M t yr-1) of ‘trash fish’ from Vi-
ease. Combined, these effects could
line conditions and potentially improv-
etnam’s marine fishing industry.
ing conditions for Pangasius farms
diminish rates of growth and survival in nursery and grow out operations.
In the longer term, broodstock manBelonging to the migratory whitefish
agement practices that do not rely on
group, Pangasius catfish are them-
the
selves also vulnerable to the barrier
individuals will be necessary. Flood
replenishment
of
wild-caught
located in parts of Tra Vinh, Can Tho,
Inland fish used as feed are typically
The total output from the industry is
effects of dams described above.
protection works to adapt to the com-
Hau Giang, and Soc Tranh. However,
whitefish species whose migrations
unlikely to change significantly in
Future supplies of broodstock from
bined effects of coastal erosion,
Figure 1. Planned development in the LMB during the next 20 years. Source: MRCS.
the overall area of the Delta affected
are threatened by mainstream dam
response to the forecasted changes
the wild (mostly from Cambodia) are
increased storminess and a rising
by salinity will remain virtually un-
development. Diminished delivery of
in salinity distribution in the Delta.
therefore also threatened.
sea level might also be required.
The climate in the Vietnamese Delta is
changed from the present.
nutrient-bearing sediments threatens
Yields are reported invariant to farm
ecosystem production in the Delta
distance from the sea and the striped
The effects of reduced sediment
Adapting
supply, increased storminess and
declines in the supply of trash fish,
rising sea levels are likely to occur
fish meal and oil for feed is likely to
mainly at coastal margins and there-
be more challenging, affecting every
fore are unlikely to affect existing
type of operator, but particularly the
farm operations significantly, at least
small-scale grow-out farmer for which
during the foreseeable (20 year)
the cost of feed is a major determi-
future.
nant of their continued participation in
also changing and expected to change further in the future. Annual average
Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus)
and coastal zones and thereby the
loads are likely to increase by 28 % in
catfish is tolerant of salinities of up to
temperature in the LMB is predicted to
supply of estuarine and marine fish
13 ppt without compromising its
increase by approximately 1°C by
the Delta in response to the planned
for feed. Even imported supplies of
2050. Sea level is expected to rise
expansion and intensification of agri-
fish meal are threatened by the ef-
17cm by 2030 accompanied by more
culture in the LMB. Loadings of these
fects of global changes to ocean
frequent and intense typhoons espe-
pollutants from urban sources is pre-
conditions and productivity caused by
cially during El Ninõ years.
dicted to rise by almost 50 % in re-
climate change.
sponse to population growth.
growth or survival, possibly reflecting a marine ancestry. Some redistribution of production and livelihood opportunities among affected areas might occur.
600
has been dismissed as being a prac-
coastal habitats, as well as imported
Intrusion of more saline
800
Relocating farms further upstream
Changes to the distribution of saline
level rise.
Fishmeal, $/mt, real 2005$
1,000
cline by 40 - 60 % in the next 20
ticable adaptation strategy in re-
estuarine
Fishmeal, $/mt, nominal$
400
and
(river/floodplains),
“Adapti ve capaci ty is a mea sur e of the abil i ty to cope wi th or mi ti gate i mpact”.
profits
benefit the aquaculture sector, poten-
rise, possibly by as much as the fore-
“Potenti al i mpact is deter mi ned by exposur e and sensi ti vi ty to changi ng conditions”.
marginal
It remains uncertain whether the
the coastline. These flow increases are expected to
very
$ / tonne
The quality and quantity of water in the
What do we mean by vul ner abil ity?
Adaptive Capacity
Precipitation in the LMB is also ex-
to
the industry.
(potentially
sudden)
Year Figure 2 Global market price for fish meal, 1990 - 2011. Source: World data Bank.
