TEAK Holz International AG
1
TEAK Holz International AG
TEAK Holz International AG
Update – 3. Quarter 2010/2011 Company on course Double-digit price target
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
2
TEAK Holz International AG
Facts Stock Market:
Vienna
Recommendation:
Buy
ISIN:
AT0TEAKHOLZ8
Sentiment Value:
10€
Market Cap:
34,33 Mio
Swing Value:
12€
Shares outstanding:
6,241 Mio.
Buyout Value:
20€
Free Float:
40,60%
Price:
5,50€
Sector:
Paper and Forestry
Risk:
medium
Web:
http://www.teakholzinternational.com
Reuters:
TEAK.VI
Bloomberg:
TEAK AV
Year high/low:
7,20€/3,26€
2011/2012e
2010/2011e
2009/2010
2008/2009
Turnover
2.000.000 €
1.500.000 €
1.217.000 €
816.000 €
Net Income
7.176.000 €
5.616.000 €
€3.711.000
-10.113.000 €
Earnings per share
1,15€
0,9 €
0,59 €
-1,62 €
01.10.10-30.06.11
01.10.09-30.06.10
Revenue
1.110.000€
427.000€
EBIT
5.500.000€
5.600.000€
EBT
4.000.000€
3.900.000€
Three Value Statement Sentiment Value: 10€ The stock is notably undervalued and ranges somewhere between commodity stocks and ecological assets. The prospect of further price rises in this commodity section and the revaluation of the company due to successful strategies let us assume that the share price will go higher than the IPO price at 9€. Swing Value: 12€ Any further activities like acquisitions of further forest assets and the implied financing, any clear signs of further expansion will increase the size and the market position of the company, as a supplier as well as a trader. Any step forward to increase the business can quickly trigger a revaluation. Buy Out Value: 20€ Even with conservative examination the asset value will be a multiple of the current share price in just a few years, which should result in a high price in case of a takeover. A very likely price increase of teakwood is not yet factored into this share price.
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
3
TEAK Holz International AG
The Chart
Quelle: www.financejet.at
Q3: The crisis only affects the price The current price development has initiated a downtrend that stopped at the 5 euro mark. Now a stronger uptrend seems to surface, which is likely going to meet the downtrend channel at a price of 6 euro. Once the barrier at 7 euro is breached, the emission price at 9€ is the next to be tested.
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
4
TEAK Holz International AG
What we expect... The results came in as expected, with only a few minor changes in the forecast due to the US-Dollar fluctuations. The overall situation shows the stable growth and confirms the outlook for the company The management is positive about the current teak market situation and the price development as a consequence. Stable quality production combined with a steady demand and predictable sellable quantities provide an excellent chance for expansion, especially in their target regions. Numerous projects are being looked at and the raising of proper expansion capital, in equity as well as in debt, is now tested and about to be pursued. Given the number of perspectives and the high substance value of the company, we expect the expansion to be a success, together with a two digit stock price, once the panic fades and values are traded again contrary to fears being discounted. We stick to our STRONG BUY recommendation and value the share for its long-term investment possibilities.
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
5
TEAK Holz International AG
General disclosures This research report was prepared by YMB Pressburg M&A Ltd. The information and conclusions contained herein are estimates only which are based on sources that are under YMB’s judgment reliable. However any warranty and representation for their correctness and completeness must be refused and is excluded. All opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this research report reflect the estimates and the judgment of YMB related to the date where this research report was issued only and is subject to changes without notice. This research report does not serve or is meant as an offer or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time YMB or its affiliates or the principals or employees of YMB or its affiliates may have a position in the securities referred to in this research report or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may make a market or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. YMB or its affiliates or the principals or employees of YMB or its affiliates may from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of a company being reported on in the research report. Further information on the securities referred to in the research report may be obtained from YMB upon request. Past performance is not necessarily indicative for future results and transactions in securities, options or futures must be considered risky. Not all transaction and investments are suitable for every investor. Investors are advised to consult financial consultants in order to secure that the intended investment fits into their needs and preferences and that the risks involved in any investment of that kind are fully understood and aware of. The research report is the property of YMB and must not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior written consent of YMB. Partners, directors or employees of YMB may serve on the board of directors of companies mentioned in this research report. Opinions expressed in a report are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise stated in this research report, target prices contained in this research report are either based on earnings approach or on comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is applied a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe remains. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries, in regulations. Specific disclosures (1)
YMB and/or its affiliates act(s) as market maker or liquidity provider for securities issued by the company covered in this report
(2)
Within the past year YMB and/or its affiliates has/have managed or co-managed a public offering for the company covered in this report
(3)
Within the past year YMB and/or its affiliates has/have received money compensation from the company covered in this report for investment
banking services it/they rendered. (4)
YMB and/or its affiliate(s) expect(s) to receive or intend(s) to seek from the company covered in this report further money compensation for ongoing
investment banking services within the oncoming months. Applicable specific disclosures: (4) Terminology Equity Value = Market Cap = Share price x Number of shares Net debt = Financial debt – Cash & Equivalents Net cash = Cash surplus over Financial debt Enterprise Value (EV) = Market Cap + Net debt (- Net cash) Earnings per share (EPS) = Net profit / Total shares outstanding EV/Sales = Enterprise Value / Sales EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value / Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization EV/EBIT = Enterprise Value / Earnings before interest and tax P/E = Market Price per Share / Earnings per Share
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
TEAK Holz International AG
TEAK Holz International AG
Update – 3. Quarter 2010/2011 Company on course Double-digit price target
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
2
TEAK Holz International AG
Facts Stock Market:
Vienna
Recommendation:
Buy
ISIN:
AT0TEAKHOLZ8
Sentiment Value:
10€
Market Cap:
34,33 Mio
Swing Value:
12€
Shares outstanding:
6,241 Mio.
Buyout Value:
20€
Free Float:
40,60%
Price:
5,50€
Sector:
Paper and Forestry
Risk:
medium
Web:
http://www.teakholzinternational.com
Reuters:
TEAK.VI
Bloomberg:
TEAK AV
Year high/low:
7,20€/3,26€
2011/2012e
2010/2011e
2009/2010
2008/2009
Turnover
2.000.000 €
1.500.000 €
1.217.000 €
816.000 €
Net Income
7.176.000 €
5.616.000 €
€3.711.000
-10.113.000 €
Earnings per share
1,15€
0,9 €
0,59 €
-1,62 €
01.10.10-30.06.11
01.10.09-30.06.10
Revenue
1.110.000€
427.000€
EBIT
5.500.000€
5.600.000€
EBT
4.000.000€
3.900.000€
Three Value Statement Sentiment Value: 10€ The stock is notably undervalued and ranges somewhere between commodity stocks and ecological assets. The prospect of further price rises in this commodity section and the revaluation of the company due to successful strategies let us assume that the share price will go higher than the IPO price at 9€. Swing Value: 12€ Any further activities like acquisitions of further forest assets and the implied financing, any clear signs of further expansion will increase the size and the market position of the company, as a supplier as well as a trader. Any step forward to increase the business can quickly trigger a revaluation. Buy Out Value: 20€ Even with conservative examination the asset value will be a multiple of the current share price in just a few years, which should result in a high price in case of a takeover. A very likely price increase of teakwood is not yet factored into this share price.
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
3
TEAK Holz International AG
The Chart
Quelle: www.financejet.at
Q3: The crisis only affects the price The current price development has initiated a downtrend that stopped at the 5 euro mark. Now a stronger uptrend seems to surface, which is likely going to meet the downtrend channel at a price of 6 euro. Once the barrier at 7 euro is breached, the emission price at 9€ is the next to be tested.
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
4
TEAK Holz International AG
What we expect... The results came in as expected, with only a few minor changes in the forecast due to the US-Dollar fluctuations. The overall situation shows the stable growth and confirms the outlook for the company The management is positive about the current teak market situation and the price development as a consequence. Stable quality production combined with a steady demand and predictable sellable quantities provide an excellent chance for expansion, especially in their target regions. Numerous projects are being looked at and the raising of proper expansion capital, in equity as well as in debt, is now tested and about to be pursued. Given the number of perspectives and the high substance value of the company, we expect the expansion to be a success, together with a two digit stock price, once the panic fades and values are traded again contrary to fears being discounted. We stick to our STRONG BUY recommendation and value the share for its long-term investment possibilities.
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
5
TEAK Holz International AG
General disclosures This research report was prepared by YMB Pressburg M&A Ltd. The information and conclusions contained herein are estimates only which are based on sources that are under YMB’s judgment reliable. However any warranty and representation for their correctness and completeness must be refused and is excluded. All opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this research report reflect the estimates and the judgment of YMB related to the date where this research report was issued only and is subject to changes without notice. This research report does not serve or is meant as an offer or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time YMB or its affiliates or the principals or employees of YMB or its affiliates may have a position in the securities referred to in this research report or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may make a market or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. YMB or its affiliates or the principals or employees of YMB or its affiliates may from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of a company being reported on in the research report. Further information on the securities referred to in the research report may be obtained from YMB upon request. Past performance is not necessarily indicative for future results and transactions in securities, options or futures must be considered risky. Not all transaction and investments are suitable for every investor. Investors are advised to consult financial consultants in order to secure that the intended investment fits into their needs and preferences and that the risks involved in any investment of that kind are fully understood and aware of. The research report is the property of YMB and must not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior written consent of YMB. Partners, directors or employees of YMB may serve on the board of directors of companies mentioned in this research report. Opinions expressed in a report are subject to change without notice. Unless otherwise stated in this research report, target prices contained in this research report are either based on earnings approach or on comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is applied a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe remains. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain industries, in regulations. Specific disclosures (1)
YMB and/or its affiliates act(s) as market maker or liquidity provider for securities issued by the company covered in this report
(2)
Within the past year YMB and/or its affiliates has/have managed or co-managed a public offering for the company covered in this report
(3)
Within the past year YMB and/or its affiliates has/have received money compensation from the company covered in this report for investment
banking services it/they rendered. (4)
YMB and/or its affiliate(s) expect(s) to receive or intend(s) to seek from the company covered in this report further money compensation for ongoing
investment banking services within the oncoming months. Applicable specific disclosures: (4) Terminology Equity Value = Market Cap = Share price x Number of shares Net debt = Financial debt – Cash & Equivalents Net cash = Cash surplus over Financial debt Enterprise Value (EV) = Market Cap + Net debt (- Net cash) Earnings per share (EPS) = Net profit / Total shares outstanding EV/Sales = Enterprise Value / Sales EV/EBITDA = Enterprise Value / Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization EV/EBIT = Enterprise Value / Earnings before interest and tax P/E = Market Price per Share / Earnings per Share
YMB Pressburg M&A Limited
