Team Asteroid
Team Asteroid
By Paul Geringer, Dan Pfeffer, Rachel Vrabec and Joey Gill
What is an asteroid? • Range in size from dust parCcles to Ceres (1 mm‐1000 km) • Asteroids generally fall into three broad composiCon groups: C‐ type (carbon rich), S‐ type (silicon rich), and M‐type (metallic rich) • Near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) and PotenCally Hazardous Objects (PHOs)
ORIGIN OF ASTEROIDS • Start with a dust cloud • Remnants of a “sCllborn planet” • Low‐velocity collisions • Planetesimals grow to form larger bodies • For our solar system‐ many were swept away by Jupiter
ORIGIN OF ASTEROIDS Many theories were offered: Interrupted DisintegraCon AccreCon
Asteroid DetecCon • Depending on the albedo, or reflecCvity of the object, 1 km wide objects 1 AU away have an apparent magnitude of +17.75 to +18. • WISE (done), LINEAR, Spacewatch (orbits), LONEOS, CSS, JSGA, ADAS • Involvement of SDSS • PHAs
Seeing Asteroids
Tracking Asteroids • ConCnuous, long‐period observaCons • Changes in orbit • Overall impact chances
Pre‐PrevenCon • Funds
– Private/Public – Project: Cost‐Aperture RaCo, Material Cost, InflaCon, hazard to populaCon and hazard to infrastructure values • Solar Sail 1: – – –
Launch mass of 3350 kg= $90M ProducCon= $60M Space crag bus TargeCng equipment=$150M
• Retrograde Impact: –
2 Km Asteroid= $300M
• 20 yr NEO Search 3 –
• Research – – – –
Eliminate 90% risk= $236‐397M
PANIC 2 Space Guard Near‐Earth Object Science DefiniCon Team B612 FoundaCon
Approaches •
Drilling, landing men on the asteroid
– Armageddon (aka Hollywood Approach)
•
Solar Sail
– PosiCve: EffecCve, long term – NegaCve: Very difficult to install on asteroid
•
Surface PainCng
•
Momentum, Jet Propulsion
– PosiCve: Alter albedo 4 – NegaCve: Cme requirement, budget for ion drive and thruster – PosiCve: Impact mass to alter velocity – NegaCve: uncertain internal structure
•
AblaCve Proposal (laser beam)
– PosiCve: No ReacCon Mass – NegaCve: Energy Cost to Vaporize
•
Momentum, Nuclear Impact
•
Current Technology
– PosiCve: Energy Efficiency, GravitaConal CollecCon – NegaCve: FracConal Debris, PoliCcal/Environmental ReacCon to RadiaCon – Nuclear Electric Propulsion Concept
Early DetecCon • Three satellite orbit possibiliCes • Jupiter orbiter • Trade‐offs – 2π vs 3π – Upgrades – Cost
• Early detecCon is necessary for success
Deterring Large asteroids (1 km+) • Destroy it or change its trajectory? • Move the asteroid • Heat the asteroid • Change the center of mass
Minimum condiCons for diverCng an asteroid via conCnuous acceleraCons
Late DetecCon (Less than 10 years)/Small (100 m – 1km) PHO prevenCon Three possible scenarios: 1. Problem: “Dirty Snowball,” 1 km, long‐ period object in high inclinaCon orbit, rotaCng once every four days, with speed of 62 km/s is difficult to discover more than 1000 days before its arrival into the inner solar system SoluCon: Massive nuclear strike 2. Problem: 400 m asteroid, Denisty of 2 g/cm^3, Mass of 6.7x10^10 kg, Discovered 5 Cmes distance to the moon SoluCon: Precision nuclear strike 3. 800 m diameter asteroid: Discovered 5 years out SoluCon: Nuclear Nudge
Consequence of Impact
By Paul Geringer, Dan Pfeffer, Rachel Vrabec and Joey Gill
What is an asteroid? • Range in size from dust parCcles to Ceres (1 mm‐1000 km) • Asteroids generally fall into three broad composiCon groups: C‐ type (carbon rich), S‐ type (silicon rich), and M‐type (metallic rich) • Near‐Earth asteroids (NEAs) and PotenCally Hazardous Objects (PHOs)
ORIGIN OF ASTEROIDS • Start with a dust cloud • Remnants of a “sCllborn planet” • Low‐velocity collisions • Planetesimals grow to form larger bodies • For our solar system‐ many were swept away by Jupiter
ORIGIN OF ASTEROIDS Many theories were offered: Interrupted DisintegraCon AccreCon
Asteroid DetecCon • Depending on the albedo, or reflecCvity of the object, 1 km wide objects 1 AU away have an apparent magnitude of +17.75 to +18. • WISE (done), LINEAR, Spacewatch (orbits), LONEOS, CSS, JSGA, ADAS • Involvement of SDSS • PHAs
Seeing Asteroids
Tracking Asteroids • ConCnuous, long‐period observaCons • Changes in orbit • Overall impact chances
Pre‐PrevenCon • Funds
– Private/Public – Project: Cost‐Aperture RaCo, Material Cost, InflaCon, hazard to populaCon and hazard to infrastructure values • Solar Sail 1: – – –
Launch mass of 3350 kg= $90M ProducCon= $60M Space crag bus TargeCng equipment=$150M
• Retrograde Impact: –
2 Km Asteroid= $300M
• 20 yr NEO Search 3 –
• Research – – – –
Eliminate 90% risk= $236‐397M
PANIC 2 Space Guard Near‐Earth Object Science DefiniCon Team B612 FoundaCon
Approaches •
Drilling, landing men on the asteroid
– Armageddon (aka Hollywood Approach)
•
Solar Sail
– PosiCve: EffecCve, long term – NegaCve: Very difficult to install on asteroid
•
Surface PainCng
•
Momentum, Jet Propulsion
– PosiCve: Alter albedo 4 – NegaCve: Cme requirement, budget for ion drive and thruster – PosiCve: Impact mass to alter velocity – NegaCve: uncertain internal structure
•
AblaCve Proposal (laser beam)
– PosiCve: No ReacCon Mass – NegaCve: Energy Cost to Vaporize
•
Momentum, Nuclear Impact
•
Current Technology
– PosiCve: Energy Efficiency, GravitaConal CollecCon – NegaCve: FracConal Debris, PoliCcal/Environmental ReacCon to RadiaCon – Nuclear Electric Propulsion Concept
Early DetecCon • Three satellite orbit possibiliCes • Jupiter orbiter • Trade‐offs – 2π vs 3π – Upgrades – Cost
• Early detecCon is necessary for success
Deterring Large asteroids (1 km+) • Destroy it or change its trajectory? • Move the asteroid • Heat the asteroid • Change the center of mass
Minimum condiCons for diverCng an asteroid via conCnuous acceleraCons
Late DetecCon (Less than 10 years)/Small (100 m – 1km) PHO prevenCon Three possible scenarios: 1. Problem: “Dirty Snowball,” 1 km, long‐ period object in high inclinaCon orbit, rotaCng once every four days, with speed of 62 km/s is difficult to discover more than 1000 days before its arrival into the inner solar system SoluCon: Massive nuclear strike 2. Problem: 400 m asteroid, Denisty of 2 g/cm^3, Mass of 6.7x10^10 kg, Discovered 5 Cmes distance to the moon SoluCon: Precision nuclear strike 3. 800 m diameter asteroid: Discovered 5 years out SoluCon: Nuclear Nudge
Consequence of Impact
