TEST RESULTS:

TEST RESULTS: Surveying U.S. Responses to Nuclear Testing Timothy Westmyer Research and Program Assistant Rising Powers Initiative George Washington University

Looking Back to Plan Ahead U.S. Response Evolved and Varied Over Time Whose Finger Pushes the Trigger Matters Key Trends Shaped How United States Responded Policy Options and Considerations

Why Test? 1. Basic Science

2. Confirm Designs 3. Safety, Reliability, and Security 4. Political Goals at Home and Abroad

Case Studies: Range of Tests Allies:  United Kingdom  France

Aspiring Partners in South Asia:  India  Pakistan

Rivals:  USSR/Russia  China  North Korea

Uncertain Origins:  Vela Incident (Israel/South Africa)

When Our Allies Test United Kingdom

France

 First Test = HURRICANE  Monte Bello, October 1952  45 Nuclear Tests

 First Test = GERBOISE BLEUE  Algeria, February 1960  210 Nuclear Tests

U.S. Response: -Period of Relative Independence -Gradual Cooperation -1990s Moratorium

U.S. Response: -Uneasy Start -Toward Trepid Cooperation -1990s Moratorium

When Our Rivals Test USSR / Russian Federation

China

 First Test = RDS 1  Kazakhstan, August 1949  715 Nuclear Tests

 First Test = 596  Taklamakan Desert, October 1964  45 Nuclear Tests

U.S. Response: -Early Days -PNE Squabbling -Accusations During 1990s

U.S. Response: -“Strangling the Baby in the Cradle” -1990s Testing Before CTBT

When South Asia Tests India

Pakistan

 First PNE = “Smiling Buddha”  Pokhran Test Site, May 1974  2 test groups (simultaneous detonations), May 1998

 First Test = 596  Baluchistan, May 1998  2 test groups (simultaneous detonations)

U.S. Response: -Peaceful Disruption: 1974 -Aborted Tests: Mid-1990s -Breaking 24-year Moratorium: 1998

U.S. Response: -Following One’s Neighbor: 1998

When North Korea Tests North Korea  Punggye-ri Test Site U.S. Response: -First Impressions: 2006 -Encore: 2009 -Latest Feat: 2013

Important Trends • Emergence of International Norm Against Nuclear Testing

• Series of Formal Treaties & Informal Moratoriums on Nuclear Testing

Policy Options and Considerations  Start Early: most meaningful non-proliferation work is done before test preparations even begin

 Prioritize Objectives: immediate focus should be on  1) Preventing additional tests

 2) Managing security concerns of allies and interested parties  3) Discouraging transfer to other would-be proliferators  4) Rallying international support

Policy Options and Considerations  Coordinate with Allies Early and Often: ensure credibility of U.S. deterrence commitments and manage repercussions of testing  Key Considerations:  1) Sequencing of sanctions/conditions for removal

 2) Benefits of often frustrating diplomatic efforts  3) Effect of publically or privately releasing intel on testing  4) U.S. test moratorium

Thank you. Timothy Westmyer Research and Program Assistant Rising Powers Initiative Sigur Center for Asian Studies The George Washington University [email protected] www.RisingPowersInitiative.org