Thai Union Group - Global Alliance Partners
Thai Union Group Outperform (16E TP Bt20.50)
Company Update
Close Bt21.30 Food & Beverage
Earning upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
April 4, 2016
Expect 1Q16 core profit growth of 121%YoY/ 2016‐17E earnings to achieve 19% CAGR Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.328
1.482
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.6%
3.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TU.BK/TU TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,771.82
Par (Bt)
0.25
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
102.00/2,890.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
45.00/39.78
52 week High / Low (Bt)
22.10/15.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
10,118.00
NVDR (%)
11.89
Estimated free float (%)
63.92
Beta
0.55
URL
www.thaiuniongroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
Earnings to achieve 19% CAGR during 2016‐17E Projecting TU’s 1Q16 core profit growth at 121%YoY, we maintain our positive view towards its effective business management, with a better profit margin and a lower D/E ratio of below 1x expected. We also stand by our forecast calling for 2016‐17E core earnings to achieve 19% CAGR. Our “Outperform” rating and the 2016E target price of Bt20.50/share (16x PER) are thus maintained. 1Q16 core profit to jump by 121%YoY but drop by 14%QoQ We project TU’s core profit at Bt1.15bn (+121%YoY, ‐14%QoQ). The firm’s sales are estimated at Bt31.83bn,expected to increase by 11%YoY (i.e., 8% from existing businesses and 3% from the consolidation of the two‐month operation of Rugen Fish with projected sales of 140mn euros/year in 1Q16) but drop by 5%QoQ on seasonality. This factor, coupled with an expected good gross profit margin earned by the branded tuna business, especially in Europe, as well as the depreciation of the baht by 9%YoY, prompts us to project a gross profit margin of 15.5% in 1Q16 (vs. 13.8% in 1Q15 and 15.4% in 4Q15). Note that we expect to see some extraordinary items (expenses related to legal fee and FX) during the quarter. Tuna price rose strongly in Mar‐16 Skipjack tuna prices in Mar‐16 rose by 40%MoM to US$1,600/ton because a fleet of tuna catching vessels decided to suspend tuna catching after the tuna price fell to around US$1,000 during Oct‐15 to Jan‐16 and they were unable to negotiate the price with the US. As a consequence of declining tuna output, the average tuna price rose to US$1,257/ton in 1Q16 (+14%YoY, +20%QoQ). We view that the rise in the tuna price will be positive to TU’s OEM‐based tuna business in the short term as the cost of tuna in its current inventory is low. However, the tuna price may not be sustained at the current high level for a long time and it may fall after the price negotiation is concluded. Maintain 2016E core profit growth of 19%YoY We expect 1Q16 core profit to account for 19% of our 2016E projection of Bt6.1bn (+19%YoY). Sales and the gross profit margin are expected to improve in 2Q‐3Q on seasonality. We thus leave our 2016E core profit projection unchanged. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 112,813 2,270 0.62 0.48 ‐48% 0.37 8.61 2013 34.22 19.92 2.47 1.75% 5.9% 106.6
2014 121,402 5,092 1.08 1.01 111% 0.55 9.15 2014 19.65 13.83 2.33 2.58% 12.2% 101.5
2015 125,183 5,302 1.11 1.08 7% 0.63 9.60 2015 19.17 12.82 2.22 2.96% 11.9% 83.1
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 142,939 6,116 1.28 1.28 19% 0.64 10.25 2016E 16.62 13.16 2.08 3.01% 12.9% 69.3
2017E 159,429 7,315 1.53 1.53 20% 0.77 11.14 2017E 13.90 11.36 1.91 3.60% 14.3% 57.7
Figure 1 Earnings Preview (Bt m) Sales COGS Gross profit SG&A expense Others income EBIT Interest expense EBT Tax expense Equity income MI Norm. profit Extra. Items Net profit EPS (Bt) Gross margin SG&A /Sales EBIT margin Norm. profit margin
1Q15 28,606 ‐24,660 3,945 ‐2,836 153 1,262 ‐412 851 ‐312 56 74 520 987 1,507
4Q15 33,333 ‐28,197 5,136 ‐3,222 14 1,928 ‐311 1,617 ‐211 147 219 1,334 ‐577 757
1Q16E 31,828 ‐26,894 4,933 ‐3,246 123 1,810 ‐347 1,463 ‐263 150 200 1,149 0 1,149
0.32
0.16
0.24
13.8%
15.4% 9.7% 5.8% 4.0%
15.5% 10.2% 5.7% 3.6%
4.4% 1.8%
% YoY %QoQ 11.3% ‐4.5% 9.1% ‐4.6% 25.0% ‐3.9% 14.5% 0.8% ‐19.6% 753.3% 43.4% ‐6.1% ‐15.6% 11.7% 71.9% ‐9.6% ‐15.7% 24.8% 169.6% 2.2% 170.5% ‐8.5% 121.1% ‐13.9% nm nm ‐23.7% 51.7% ‐23.7%
2015 125,183 ‐105,275 19,907 ‐12,184 491 8,215 ‐1,451 6,764 ‐1,332 336 616 5,152 151 5,302
51.7%
2016E % YoY YTD (% of 2016E) 142,939 14.2% 22.3% ‐120,320 14.3% 22.4% 22,619 13.6% 21.8% ‐14,165 16.3% 22.9% 506 3.0% 24.3% 8,960 9.1% 20.2% ‐1,441 ‐0.7% 24.1% 7,519 11.2% 19.5% ‐1,128 ‐15.3% 23.3% 345 2.7% 43.5% 620 0.7% 32.3% 6,116 18.7% 18.8% 0 nm nm 6,116 15.3% 18.8%
1.11
1.28
15.3%
15.9% 9.7% 6.6% 4.1%
15.8% 9.9% 6.3% 4.3%
18.8%
Source : TU, KTZ Research Figure 2 WPO Skipjack tuna prices (US$ per ton) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
2004 870 780 680 750 920 950 1,040 1,150 1,170 800 780 700 883
2005 730 800 985 990 925 900 970 995 880 820 750 710 871
2006 780 1,040 880 840 925 960 840 930 945 885 880 1,020 910
2007 1,030 970 990 1,070 1,230 1,300 1,420 1,550 1,390 1,475 1,410 1,500 1,278
2008 1,560 1,460 1,520 1,650 1,800 1,945 1,930 1,840 1,800 1,500 1,170 850 1,585
2009 1,025 1,220 1,140 940 1,190 1,450 1,450 1,380 1,150 865 850 1,030 1,141
2010 1,075 960 1,085 1,365 1,530 1,705 1,560 1,326 1,215 1,080 1,232 1,305 1,287
2011 1,515 1,590 1,475 1,680 1,840 1,905 1,620 1,845 1,975 1,830 1,910 2,005 1,766
2012 2,030 1,930 2,090 2,195 2,198 2,200 2,240 2,280 2,350 2,210 1,900 1,900 2,127
2013 2,075 2,195 2,325 2,320 2,195 2,020 1,850 1,880 1,875 1,770 1,570 1,400 1,956
2014 1,275 1,225 1,175 1,225 1,485 1,710 1,800 1,600 1,280 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,361
2015 1,150 1,150 1,010 1,035 1,070 1,200 1,400 1,500 1,390 1,140 1,000 1,000 1,170
2016 1,000 1,170 1,600
1,257
2,500
2,000
1,500
2,000
2,350
1,915 1,813
2,1952,195 2,200 2,090 2,005 1,975 1,905 1,900 1,880
1,800 1,600
1,800 1,710 1,600 1,485
1,770 1,570
1,600 1,500 1,400 1,390
1,400
1,400
1,570
1,475
1,257 1,103 1,102
1,047
1,000
1,280 1,180 1,150 1,200 1,200 1,070 1,150 1,035 1,010
1,275 1,175
1,200
1,430
1,000
1,140
1,170
1,000 1,000
800 600 400
500
200
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Feb‐16
Oct‐15
Source: TU , KTZ Research
Dec‐15
Jun‐15
Aug‐15
Apr‐15
Feb‐15
Dec‐14
Oct‐14
Jun‐14
Aug‐14
Apr‐14
Feb‐14
Oct‐13
3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Dec‐13
‐
0
Figure 3: PER
Source: KT Z Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt21.30 Food & Beverage
Earning upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
April 4, 2016
Expect 1Q16 core profit growth of 121%YoY/ 2016‐17E earnings to achieve 19% CAGR Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
1.328
1.482
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐3.6%
3.2%
Reuters / Bloomberg
TU.BK/TU TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
4,771.82
Par (Bt)
0.25
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
102.00/2,890.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
45.00/39.78
52 week High / Low (Bt)
22.10/15.80
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000)
10,118.00
NVDR (%)
11.89
Estimated free float (%)
63.92
Beta
0.55
URL
www.thaiuniongroup.com
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 3A (Established)
Phornsri Laysanitsaerekul Analyst , no 17621 [email protected] 66 (0) 2624‐6258
Earnings to achieve 19% CAGR during 2016‐17E Projecting TU’s 1Q16 core profit growth at 121%YoY, we maintain our positive view towards its effective business management, with a better profit margin and a lower D/E ratio of below 1x expected. We also stand by our forecast calling for 2016‐17E core earnings to achieve 19% CAGR. Our “Outperform” rating and the 2016E target price of Bt20.50/share (16x PER) are thus maintained. 1Q16 core profit to jump by 121%YoY but drop by 14%QoQ We project TU’s core profit at Bt1.15bn (+121%YoY, ‐14%QoQ). The firm’s sales are estimated at Bt31.83bn,expected to increase by 11%YoY (i.e., 8% from existing businesses and 3% from the consolidation of the two‐month operation of Rugen Fish with projected sales of 140mn euros/year in 1Q16) but drop by 5%QoQ on seasonality. This factor, coupled with an expected good gross profit margin earned by the branded tuna business, especially in Europe, as well as the depreciation of the baht by 9%YoY, prompts us to project a gross profit margin of 15.5% in 1Q16 (vs. 13.8% in 1Q15 and 15.4% in 4Q15). Note that we expect to see some extraordinary items (expenses related to legal fee and FX) during the quarter. Tuna price rose strongly in Mar‐16 Skipjack tuna prices in Mar‐16 rose by 40%MoM to US$1,600/ton because a fleet of tuna catching vessels decided to suspend tuna catching after the tuna price fell to around US$1,000 during Oct‐15 to Jan‐16 and they were unable to negotiate the price with the US. As a consequence of declining tuna output, the average tuna price rose to US$1,257/ton in 1Q16 (+14%YoY, +20%QoQ). We view that the rise in the tuna price will be positive to TU’s OEM‐based tuna business in the short term as the cost of tuna in its current inventory is low. However, the tuna price may not be sustained at the current high level for a long time and it may fall after the price negotiation is concluded. Maintain 2016E core profit growth of 19%YoY We expect 1Q16 core profit to account for 19% of our 2016E projection of Bt6.1bn (+19%YoY). Sales and the gross profit margin are expected to improve in 2Q‐3Q on seasonality. We thus leave our 2016E core profit projection unchanged. Financial and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Btmn) Net profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%)
2013 112,813 2,270 0.62 0.48 ‐48% 0.37 8.61 2013 34.22 19.92 2.47 1.75% 5.9% 106.6
2014 121,402 5,092 1.08 1.01 111% 0.55 9.15 2014 19.65 13.83 2.33 2.58% 12.2% 101.5
2015 125,183 5,302 1.11 1.08 7% 0.63 9.60 2015 19.17 12.82 2.22 2.96% 11.9% 83.1
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2016E 142,939 6,116 1.28 1.28 19% 0.64 10.25 2016E 16.62 13.16 2.08 3.01% 12.9% 69.3
2017E 159,429 7,315 1.53 1.53 20% 0.77 11.14 2017E 13.90 11.36 1.91 3.60% 14.3% 57.7
Figure 1 Earnings Preview (Bt m) Sales COGS Gross profit SG&A expense Others income EBIT Interest expense EBT Tax expense Equity income MI Norm. profit Extra. Items Net profit EPS (Bt) Gross margin SG&A /Sales EBIT margin Norm. profit margin
1Q15 28,606 ‐24,660 3,945 ‐2,836 153 1,262 ‐412 851 ‐312 56 74 520 987 1,507
4Q15 33,333 ‐28,197 5,136 ‐3,222 14 1,928 ‐311 1,617 ‐211 147 219 1,334 ‐577 757
1Q16E 31,828 ‐26,894 4,933 ‐3,246 123 1,810 ‐347 1,463 ‐263 150 200 1,149 0 1,149
0.32
0.16
0.24
13.8%
15.4% 9.7% 5.8% 4.0%
15.5% 10.2% 5.7% 3.6%
4.4% 1.8%
% YoY %QoQ 11.3% ‐4.5% 9.1% ‐4.6% 25.0% ‐3.9% 14.5% 0.8% ‐19.6% 753.3% 43.4% ‐6.1% ‐15.6% 11.7% 71.9% ‐9.6% ‐15.7% 24.8% 169.6% 2.2% 170.5% ‐8.5% 121.1% ‐13.9% nm nm ‐23.7% 51.7% ‐23.7%
2015 125,183 ‐105,275 19,907 ‐12,184 491 8,215 ‐1,451 6,764 ‐1,332 336 616 5,152 151 5,302
51.7%
2016E % YoY YTD (% of 2016E) 142,939 14.2% 22.3% ‐120,320 14.3% 22.4% 22,619 13.6% 21.8% ‐14,165 16.3% 22.9% 506 3.0% 24.3% 8,960 9.1% 20.2% ‐1,441 ‐0.7% 24.1% 7,519 11.2% 19.5% ‐1,128 ‐15.3% 23.3% 345 2.7% 43.5% 620 0.7% 32.3% 6,116 18.7% 18.8% 0 nm nm 6,116 15.3% 18.8%
1.11
1.28
15.3%
15.9% 9.7% 6.6% 4.1%
15.8% 9.9% 6.3% 4.3%
18.8%
Source : TU, KTZ Research Figure 2 WPO Skipjack tuna prices (US$ per ton) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
2004 870 780 680 750 920 950 1,040 1,150 1,170 800 780 700 883
2005 730 800 985 990 925 900 970 995 880 820 750 710 871
2006 780 1,040 880 840 925 960 840 930 945 885 880 1,020 910
2007 1,030 970 990 1,070 1,230 1,300 1,420 1,550 1,390 1,475 1,410 1,500 1,278
2008 1,560 1,460 1,520 1,650 1,800 1,945 1,930 1,840 1,800 1,500 1,170 850 1,585
2009 1,025 1,220 1,140 940 1,190 1,450 1,450 1,380 1,150 865 850 1,030 1,141
2010 1,075 960 1,085 1,365 1,530 1,705 1,560 1,326 1,215 1,080 1,232 1,305 1,287
2011 1,515 1,590 1,475 1,680 1,840 1,905 1,620 1,845 1,975 1,830 1,910 2,005 1,766
2012 2,030 1,930 2,090 2,195 2,198 2,200 2,240 2,280 2,350 2,210 1,900 1,900 2,127
2013 2,075 2,195 2,325 2,320 2,195 2,020 1,850 1,880 1,875 1,770 1,570 1,400 1,956
2014 1,275 1,225 1,175 1,225 1,485 1,710 1,800 1,600 1,280 1,200 1,180 1,180 1,361
2015 1,150 1,150 1,010 1,035 1,070 1,200 1,400 1,500 1,390 1,140 1,000 1,000 1,170
2016 1,000 1,170 1,600
1,257
2,500
2,000
1,500
2,000
2,350
1,915 1,813
2,1952,195 2,200 2,090 2,005 1,975 1,905 1,900 1,880
1,800 1,600
1,800 1,710 1,600 1,485
1,770 1,570
1,600 1,500 1,400 1,390
1,400
1,400
1,570
1,475
1,257 1,103 1,102
1,047
1,000
1,280 1,180 1,150 1,200 1,200 1,070 1,150 1,035 1,010
1,275 1,175
1,200
1,430
1,000
1,140
1,170
1,000 1,000
800 600 400
500
200
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Feb‐16
Oct‐15
Source: TU , KTZ Research
Dec‐15
Jun‐15
Aug‐15
Apr‐15
Feb‐15
Dec‐14
Oct‐14
Jun‐14
Aug‐14
Apr‐14
Feb‐14
Oct‐13
3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16
Dec‐13
‐
0
Figure 3: PER
Source: KT Z Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investment in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investor should consider risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, PLE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of TPBI.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
