THE CRUISE REVIEW PUBLISHED MARCH 2014
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 MORE GROWTH FOR UK MARKET 4 BRITS CHANGE THEIR CRUISE HABITS 6 MILLION CRUISE FROM UK PORTS IN 2013 8 CRUISE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GREAT VALUE 10 CRUISE DEVOTEES REMAIN LOYAL 12 PASSENGERS LEAVE IT LATE 13 DESTINATIONS AND VALUE STILL THE GREAT CRUISE PERSUADERS 14 CRUISING POPULARITY GOES SOUTH 15 BUMPER YEAR FOR EUROPEAN RIVERS 16
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2013 UK CRUISE MARKET
UK cruise market still growing and retains its position as No.1 in Europe The Mediterranean remains the go-to destination although Northern Europe looks set to become the top choice for cruising Brits European river cruising reinvents itself as passenger numbers soar 22% Cruises from UK ports set to overtake fly-cruises Overseas cruise passengers flock to UK in record numbers Air Passenger Duty continues to dampen Caribbean fly-cruise holidays but this may change following the reform of APD Destinations and value still the keys to higher cruise sales
2
3
MORE GROWTH FOR UK MARKET
The UK cruise market is on the march again. After a decade of growth came to a virtual standstill in 2012, there was a significant increase of 25,000 passengers in 2013. This ensured that the UK held off the challenge of Germany to remain the largest cruise market in Europe and the second largest in the world (after North America). This was achieved despite another tough trading year with consumer confidence and discretionary spending still not back to pre-recession levels. As a result, little extra cruise capacity was put on sale in the UK.
This is a situation that continues into 2014 but 2015 will be a completely different story with the arrival of the new P&O Cruises’ ship, Britannia, and Royal Caribbean International’s new Anthem of the Seas, both sailing out of Southampton. Britannia launches in March and Anthem of the Seas, one of the company’s new Quantum-class ships, will arrive in May for the summer and autumn. Princess Cruises’ Royal Princess also makes a return to Southampton after its naming ceremony there last year, offering cruises in the spring and summer.
These deployments are a reflection of the industry’s renewed confidence in the UK and should ensure the sector increases its share of the UK holiday market. This appeared to have dropped in 2013 as although passenger numbers grew 1.5%, early estimates were for a 4% increase in foreign holidays and 6% in package holidays.
1 UK Ocean Cruise Market
However, cruising has still trebled its share of the package holiday sector and more than doubled that of the whole foreign holidays market since 2001.
Year
Passengers (000s)
% change
2004
1,029
6.7
2005
1,071
4.1
2006
1,204
12.4
2007
1,335
10.9
2008
1,477
10.5
2009
1,533
3.8
2010
1,622
5.8
2011
1,700
4.8
2012
1,701
0.1
2013
1,726
1.5
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
2 Ocean Cruising’s Share of Foreign Holidays Market From The UK
Year 2001 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Foreign Holidays (000s)
Foreign Inclusive Holidays/tours (000s)
Ocean Cruise Holidays** (000s)
Ocean Cruises’ share of inclusive foreign holidays
Ocean cruises’ share of all foreign holidays
38,670 38,492 36,442 36,819 36,173 37,607*
20,631 14,507 14,257 14,740 14,470 15,331*
776 1,533 1,622 1,700 1,701 1,726
3.8% 10.6% 11.2% 11.5% 11.8% 11.3*
2.0% 4.0% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6*
* Estimated ** Includes Republic of Ireland Source: IRN Research; International Passenger Survey Crown Copyright 2014
4
5
BRITS CHANGE THEIR CRUISE HABITS
As the UK cruise market has continued to grow, there have also been some major changes not just in where the British choose to cruise but also in how they cruise.
ten years. And this means it has overtaken the Mediterranean for the first time as the favourite destination for those passengers beginning their cruise from a British port.
Just 13 years ago in 2001, fewer than one in eight UK passengers were cruising within Northern Europe. That meant less than 100,000 people, a number that increased more than fivefold by 2013 when nearly one in every three passengers was cruising to Norway, the Baltic, around Britain or along the North and Western coasts of Continental Europe.
There was a 20% increase in cruise passengers to Northern Europe in 2013 while numbers for the Mediterranean fell 8%. A similar result in 2014 would see Northern Europe overtake the Mediterranean as the top cruise destination for UK passengers for the first time since the Brits invented cruising two centuries ago. And that is despite the number of passengers to the Mediterranean doubling since 2001.
For Norway alone, the number of cruise passengers joining their ship at a UK port has increased from 37,000 to 218,000 in
The Caribbean has not fared quite so well with a 3% decline in 2013 meaning that passenger numbers, having peaked in the
3 Destinations Booked by UK Passengers (000s) 2001
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% change 13/12
Mediterranean
334
592
697
767
698
643
(8)
Northern Europe
98
296
303
342
443
531
146
275
272
While the Northern European boom can be attributed, in part, to the cruise lines’ need to reduce sailing distances and speeds to conserve fuel and minimise costs, the tailing off in Caribbean cruise numbers is down to a big shift towards cruising from UK ports at the expense of fly-cruise sales. Only a third of UK passengers began their cruise holiday at a British port in 2007, by 2013 it was just short of half and either this year or in 2015, they are expected to be in the majority. This has been driven by the deployment of more ships to existing and emerging cruise homeports around the UK coastline.
From the cruise consumer point of view, there is no doubt that the Air Passenger Duty (APD) and the impact of higher fuel costs on the rest of the flight fare has put Caribbean fly-cruise prices out of the reach of some. There were nearly 100,000 fewer Caribbean fly-cruises taken in 2013 compared with 2009. However, the Government announcement that APD is being reformed may change this, as from April 2015 all long haul flights will carry the same APD cost. This means that passengers flying to the Caribbean will pay the same APD as if they were flying to the US.
4 UK Port Cruises Vs Fly Cruises
Destination
Caribbean
late 2000s, have now only grown 25% since 2001 despite the corresponding 123% increase in the UK market.
238
189
183
Year
Passengers (000s)
% growth
UK Port Passengers (000s)
% share
Fly Cruise Passengers (000s)
% share
20
2007
1,335,000
11.3
467,000
35.0
867,000
65
(3)
2008
1,477,000
10.2
557,000
37.7
920,000
62.3
1,533,000
3.8
594,000
38.8
939,000
61.2
Atlantic Islands
77
102
98
116
145
161
11
2009
Other Areas
121
268
252
237
226
208
8
2010
1,622,000
5.8
653,000
40.3
968,000
59.7
Total
776
1,533
1,622
1,700
1,701
1,726
1
2011
1,700,000
4.8
729,000
42.9
971,000
57.1
2012
1,701,000
0.3
807,000
47.4
894,000
52.6
2013
1,726,000
1.5
844,000
49.0
882,000
51.0
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
6
7
MILLION CRUISE FROM UK PORTS IN 2013
The fast-growing popularity of cruising close to the UK has not been confined to British passengers. In 2013, a bumper 41% increase in overseas passengers flying in to embark on cruises from the UK meant that their number had almost doubled in six years. It also meant that - for the first time in a single year – more than a million passengers (UK and overseas) embarked on cruises from UK ports.
Also, passengers calling at UK ports during a cruise grew 20% in 2013 so that their number had more than doubled over the same six-year period. This total is also on course to reach a million within a couple of years. The number of different British ports benefiting from cruise calls also topped 50 for the second year running.
5 Embarkations at UK Ports (000s) Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Embarkations
591
714
733
833
878
962
1062
% Increase
3
21
3
14
5
10
10
UK Passengers
460
557
594
653
729
807
844
Overseas passengers
124
157
139
180
149
155
218
% share of overseas
21
22
19
22
17
16
21
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
6 Port of Call Passengers at UK Ports (000s) Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Passengers
365 (4) 46
420 15 38
448 7 43
563 26 47
651 16 50
723 11 52
866 20 51
% change Ports Visited
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
8
9
CRUISING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GREAT VALUE
With average cruise durations varying year-onyear, the most accurate price comparison for cruise holidays are the daily rates and these show that cruises cost an average £134 per day in 2013, £6 more than in 2012. However, in 2013 the average price paid for a cruise dropped by £12 and that for a summer cruise by £26 to £1,287 with an increase in shorter cruises contributing to the fall in prices. Even better news for consumers was that one in every two cruises sold in 2013 cost less than £1,000. There was strong demand for longer winter cruises and the ultra-luxury cruise companies had another good year attracting more than 27,000 guests.
7 Price (£) Trends In UK Cruise Market
8 Average Revenue (£) per UK Passenger Year
Summer
Winter
Year
2007
1270
1480
1334
2008
1313
1647
1409
2009
1238
1532
1330
2010
1323
1629
1421
2011
1331
1729
1434
2012
1313
1573
1388
2013
1287
1602
1376
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
9 UK Market Cruise Per Diems Year
£
2005
£132
2006
£130
2007
£137
2008
£135
2009
£120
2010
£130
2011
£132
2012
£128
2013
£134
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
Year
% 500
% 5011,000
% 1,001 1,500
% 2,501 5,000
% 5,000+
10 Ultra-Luxury Cruise Passengers
2004
15
25
24
24
9
3
2005
15
27
26
23
6
1
Year
Summer
Winter
Total
% of all cruises
2006
13
21
22
29
12
2
2007
13816
7552
21368
1.6
2007
12
26
25
27
8
2
2008
13238
6427
19665
1.3
2008
11
24
23
28
11
2
2009
14710
7960
22670
1.5
2009
12
24
21
26
13
2
2010
16125
7899
24024
1.5
2010
14
26
21
27
12
2
2011
15371
10498
25869
1.5
2011
15
27
22
24
11
2
2012
20057
8393
28450
1.7
2012
13
34
24
21
6
2
2013
18780
8260
27040
1.6
2013
16
33
22
21
7
2
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland Included Crystal, Compagnie du Ponant, Hapag-Lloyd, Hebridean, Regent, Seabourn, Seadream, Silversea
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
10
% 1,501 2,500
11
CRUISE DEVOTEES REMAIN LOYAL
PASSENGERS LEAVE IT LATE
Cruising has maintained one of the highest satisfaction levels in leisure travel and this continues to drive an equally high level of repeat business – and not just from year to year. In 2013, for the second consecutive year, more passengers took multiple cruises than took just the one cruise.
This trend in repeat customers means that the majority of passengers at sea at any one time have cruised before and this has been reflected in the average age of passengers being 57 years in 2013. The percentage of first-time cruisers has been volatile in the recent recessionary years as cruise companies have marketed even more strongly to their pastpassengers.
The ratio of first-timers fell by four percentage points and as they are generally younger than the average repeat cruise passenger, this also contributed to the increase in the average age.
The percentage of 2013 cruises booked within three months of departure was the highest for 10 years but this reflected, to some extent, the market situation in 2012 when economic indicators had not yet started to improve. This affected the early booking market for 2013 cruises to the extent that the ratio of cruises booked more than nine months in advance (23%) was the lowest for 10 years. This led to more late sales in 2013 despite the slow economic improvement in the UK economy as the year progressed.
11 UK Cruise Market Age Analysis % passengers Year
Up to 26
26-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Average Age
2004
9
5
10
19
26
32
54.2
2005
10
5
9
18
25
33
53.5
2006
8
5
11
21
27
27
52.5
2007
8
4
9
19
27
31
53.2
2008
8
4
8
18
27
33
53.7
2009
7
4
8
18
28
35
55.6
2010
9
4
9
19
27
33
54.8
2011
9
4
9
19
26
35
55.6
2012
8
4
7
18
27
37
56.1
2013
7
4
7
17
26
40
57.0
% of bookings (no. of months)
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
12 First Time Cruisers as % of UK Market
14 UK Cruise Market - Trends in Booking Lead Times
13 UK Passengers Booking Multiple Cruises Annually
Year
%
2007
38
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6+
2008
32
2009
38
35
15
5
2
4
2009
29
2010
43
33
12
5
3
6
2010
33
2011
58
27
9
2
1
1
2011
40
2012
46
30
14
4
2
2
2012
36
2013
45
33
12
4
2
1
2013
32
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
Cruises taken in last year (%)
Year
12+
9 - 12
6-9
3-6
0-3
2002
7
13
17
22
36
2003
8
12
14
24
41
2004
11
15
18
23
33
2005
17
17
18
22
22
2006
15
18
18
24
27
2007
18
17
18
23
24
2008
18
17
18
22
26
2009
25
19
17
22
17
2010
16
16
18
22
28
2011
15
15
17
20
34
2012
13
12
17
23
36
2013
11
12
16
21
40
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
12
13
DESTINATIONS AND VALUE STILL THE GREAT CRUISE PERSUADERS
Destination remains the number one reason given when choosing a cruise holiday. Price and perceived value for money follow as the reasons most choose when deciding on their last cruise holiday. In times of economic stress, it is no surprise to see that the biggest changes over the last three years are the way that more
CRUISING POPULARITY GOES SOUTH
all-inclusive pricing and other special offers have taken on even greater importance. The other significant development mirrors that sea-change in favour of cruising from a British port and away from fly-cruises in that flight availability from local airports is considered increasingly less important.
17 Cruise Passengers as % by Region of Residence
15 UK Passengers - Reasons* For Choosing To Take A Cruise Holiday Reasons
2011 %
2012 %
2013 %
Itinerary/Destinations
69
70
71
Region
2006
2013
UK pop %
Cruised with this line before
64
55
56
South East
14
23
14
Departure Date
31
38
38
North West
16
13
11
Duration
22
24
23
South West
10
12
8
Flights from local airport
22
13
12
Scotland
11
6
9
No flight
21
25
25
Yorkshire & Humberside
8
8
8
To try another cruise line
9
17
16
West Midlands
8
8
9
To try another ship
10
9
10
East Midlands
7
8
7
Personal recommendation
9
6
8
East of England
5
6
9
Travel agent recommendation
4
5
3
North East
6
5
4
Recommendation on web review/blog
4
2
3
London
7
4
13
Wales
5
4
5
Northern Ireland
3
1
3
* Asked to select three principal reasons. Source: UK Cruise Survey 2013 (IRN Research)
Source: IRN Research for CLIA UK & Ireland
16 UK Passengers - Reasons* For Choosing Their Last Cruise Reasons
14
South East England has become the clear leading region for the sourcing of cruise passengers but – if London is included – its 27% share is actually the same as its 27% cut of the UK population, leaving the South West as the real stand-out performer with a passenger ratio significantly ahead of its population share.
2011 %
2012 %
2013 %
Price/value for money
67
62
66
Special Offer
17
24
21
Service on-board
29
24
23
On-board atmosphere/service
26
24
22
Dining
26
23
24
Facilities on board
25
21
23
Special Occasion
20
18
16
Loyalty membership benefits
13
18
15
All-inclusive nature of package
19
17
19
Entertainment
16
15
15
Cabins and public rooms
15
13
17
All-inclusive drinks package
11
7
11
Cruise themes
5
5
5
Pre-post land stays
3
4
5
Maiden Voyage
1
1
1
* Asked to select three principal reasons Source: UK Cruise Survey 2013 (IRN Research)
15
BUMPER YEAR FOR EUROPEAN RIVERS
The continued investment in new river cruise ships has led to a 22% increase in the number of UK passengers taking a European river holiday in 2013, a rise of nearly 50% since 2010. European river cruising is in the process of a major product re-invention and this is reflected by UK travel agents reporting a surge in demand for river cruises. In just the last two years (2012-13), 27 new ships have been introduced on Europe’s rivers and 24 more are due during 2014. The previous generation of river cruise ships were small with few if any cabins with balconies. Dining was limited to one venue and fixed times while entertainment options were limited. This has changed radically with the new generation of ships.
16
A third of European river cruise ships have been built within the last ten years - a quarter within the last five. These are larger than their predecessors with some having a new-style twin-deck design. They also offer the kind of multiple dining venues, spa facilities and range of cabins with balconies which have already combined to transform the ocean cruising. Another key change is that most river cruise brands have now moved towards a more comprehensive and easier-to-understand all-inclusive pricing model. The overall size of the UK river cruising market is still being masked by Egypt’s ongoing political problems which have had a devastating impact on the country’s tourism and Nile river holidays. This has resulted in the number of UK passengers taking Nile cruises dropping 50% in 2013 and by 80% since 2010.
18 UK River Cruise Market (000s) European Destinations
2010
2011
2012
2013
% change 2012/13
Rhine/Moselle/tributaries
23.6
20.0
26.9
35.5
32
Danube
12.5
12.9
15.0
17.3
15
Rhine/Danube
4.1
8.3
4.6
5.1
11
Rhone/Seine
8.0
10.1
10.2
14.1
38
Russian
4.4
4.9
5.2
6.4
23
Italian (Po)
2.0
2.9
3.0
3.1
3
Elbe
2.5
2.2
2.4
3.6
50
Douro
8.7
9.4
9.3
10.7
15
Other European
9.1
9.6
13.4
14.2
6
Total European
74.9
80.3
90.0
109.9
22
Non European Destinations
2010
2011
2012
2013
% change
Nile
58.0
25.2
28.3
12.2
(57)
Far East/China
4.7
5.0
6.9
4.3
(38)
Other non-European
4.6
3.3
4.6
5.2
13
Total non-European
67.3
33.5
39.8
21.7
(45)
17
Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) is the world’s largest cruise industry trade association with representation in North and South America, Europe, Asia and Australasia. CLIA represents the interests of cruise lines, travel agents, port authorities and destinations, and various industry business partners before regulatory and legislatory policy makers.
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