The Customer in a Rapidly changing World
THE CUSTOMER IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD Increased Choice or Constraint? 12.11.2015 Dr. Irene Feige, FISITA
The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo)
2
ifmo Studies
3 ifmo Scenarios
China 2030
USA 2030
Germany 2035
ifmo Focus Topics The Influence of ICT and Physical Mobility
Mobility Trends in Cutting Edge Cities
The Influence of Automation on Mobility
New User Concepts for Individual Mobility
Travel stagnates in industrialised countries
4
km/ person and day (all modes) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2025*
Private car looses market share in urban areas, more flexibel and spontaneous mode choice
Urban
Suburban
Countryside
120
100
80
ÖV Pkw
60
Rad Fuß 40
20
0 1999 2009 2014 2025*
1999
2009
2014 2025*
1999
2009
2014
2025*
5
THE most important determinants for urban mobility: population density and income
Source: Kiesewetter ifmo 2012 in Spiegel online 2015 Source:
6
Mode split varies according to density, income and city policy
Car
Source: ifmo 2015
Public Transport … Growth in car share
Walking, Cycling
7
Regulation of motorised individual transport
> Infrastructural Measures > > > >
- Decrease street width for public transport and bikes (Seattle, Zurich, Seoul, Munich) - Divert roads to bikes or public transport (Seoul, Seattle) - Zones with reduced speed limit (Manchester, Paris, Seattle, Zurich, Munich) Restrictive parking schemes
> Economic Measures > > >
- City toll (Singapur, Seoul, Houston, London) - License plate auctioning (Shanghai) - Promotion of scooters instead of private car (Barcelona)
> Capacity Restrictions > > >
- Restrictions for trough traffic (Manchester) - HOV-Lanes (Sao Paulo, Barcelona, Houston) - Entrance restrictions (Barcelona, Paris, Seoul, Shanghai)
8
Air pollution in Europe: more severe than in the US, but better than in Asia, stricter regulation and enforcement to be expected
Source: Kiesewetter in Spiegel online 2015
9
How to reconcile automobile needs with urban challenges?
10
Automobile Needs (common in a lot of cities around the world)
Retreat
Flexibility
Comfort
Status
Self Determination
Security
Urban Challenges
Congestion
Air Pollution
Parking
Accidents
Infrastructure
Solutions
Cities
Industry
Measures
Solutions
Incentives, Infrastructure, Regulation
E-Mobility, Car Sharing, Bike Sharing, Pedelecs, Autonomous Driving
IKT verändert Mobilitätsmuster
11
Digitalization: Changes the way we organise mobility
Web, Smartphone & Co. change the way…
… we shop
„Amazon“ on Google Trends
… we meet people
„Facebook“ on Google Trends
… we travel
„booking.com“ on Google Trends
….also change our mobility – but how?
12
Influence of IT on physical travel
13
Trips
Distance
Cost
Tele-Work
-
-
-
Tele-Conference
o
o
o
Tele-Services
-
-
-
Tele-Shopping
-
-
-
Tele-Shopping
+
+
+
Tele-Freizeit
+
+
+ o +
ersetzt kein Effekt ergänzt
IKT ermöglicht bedarfsorientierte Verkehrsmittelwahl
Multimodality: THE Trend in urban areas
14
IKT schafft neue Kundensegmente
15
New Services: Innovative services are an important part of a multimodal approach
Ride Sharing Services: BIG Player in urban Mobility, but still small overall market share. 16 US Passenger Miles
Transit: [WERT]% Uber Rail: [WERT] [WERT] % %
> > >
Car Total [WERT] %
Uber reaches 32 % of US Americans 32%
101,6 Mio.
Uber reaches 101,6 Mio Americans. 0.07 % of US Passenger Miles are travelled by ridesharing services like Uber or Lyft. Big Changes in urban mobility but less so in national data.
17
New Products: Urban mobility becomes more diverse
Conclusions. • More constraints due to regulation • More choices due to innovative services and products • Changes in attitude and lifestyle lead to a more flexible and spontaneous mode choice • Competitive environment on a day to day basis not only once in years at the autodealer – the customer decides every morning which transportation means fits her needs best • Industry needs to adress these day to day challenges and choices the customer faces, if not, others will take over the field
18
The Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo)
2
ifmo Studies
3 ifmo Scenarios
China 2030
USA 2030
Germany 2035
ifmo Focus Topics The Influence of ICT and Physical Mobility
Mobility Trends in Cutting Edge Cities
The Influence of Automation on Mobility
New User Concepts for Individual Mobility
Travel stagnates in industrialised countries
4
km/ person and day (all modes) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2025*
Private car looses market share in urban areas, more flexibel and spontaneous mode choice
Urban
Suburban
Countryside
120
100
80
ÖV Pkw
60
Rad Fuß 40
20
0 1999 2009 2014 2025*
1999
2009
2014 2025*
1999
2009
2014
2025*
5
THE most important determinants for urban mobility: population density and income
Source: Kiesewetter ifmo 2012 in Spiegel online 2015 Source:
6
Mode split varies according to density, income and city policy
Car
Source: ifmo 2015
Public Transport … Growth in car share
Walking, Cycling
7
Regulation of motorised individual transport
> Infrastructural Measures > > > >
- Decrease street width for public transport and bikes (Seattle, Zurich, Seoul, Munich) - Divert roads to bikes or public transport (Seoul, Seattle) - Zones with reduced speed limit (Manchester, Paris, Seattle, Zurich, Munich) Restrictive parking schemes
> Economic Measures > > >
- City toll (Singapur, Seoul, Houston, London) - License plate auctioning (Shanghai) - Promotion of scooters instead of private car (Barcelona)
> Capacity Restrictions > > >
- Restrictions for trough traffic (Manchester) - HOV-Lanes (Sao Paulo, Barcelona, Houston) - Entrance restrictions (Barcelona, Paris, Seoul, Shanghai)
8
Air pollution in Europe: more severe than in the US, but better than in Asia, stricter regulation and enforcement to be expected
Source: Kiesewetter in Spiegel online 2015
9
How to reconcile automobile needs with urban challenges?
10
Automobile Needs (common in a lot of cities around the world)
Retreat
Flexibility
Comfort
Status
Self Determination
Security
Urban Challenges
Congestion
Air Pollution
Parking
Accidents
Infrastructure
Solutions
Cities
Industry
Measures
Solutions
Incentives, Infrastructure, Regulation
E-Mobility, Car Sharing, Bike Sharing, Pedelecs, Autonomous Driving
IKT verändert Mobilitätsmuster
11
Digitalization: Changes the way we organise mobility
Web, Smartphone & Co. change the way…
… we shop
„Amazon“ on Google Trends
… we meet people
„Facebook“ on Google Trends
… we travel
„booking.com“ on Google Trends
….also change our mobility – but how?
12
Influence of IT on physical travel
13
Trips
Distance
Cost
Tele-Work
-
-
-
Tele-Conference
o
o
o
Tele-Services
-
-
-
Tele-Shopping
-
-
-
Tele-Shopping
+
+
+
Tele-Freizeit
+
+
+ o +
ersetzt kein Effekt ergänzt
IKT ermöglicht bedarfsorientierte Verkehrsmittelwahl
Multimodality: THE Trend in urban areas
14
IKT schafft neue Kundensegmente
15
New Services: Innovative services are an important part of a multimodal approach
Ride Sharing Services: BIG Player in urban Mobility, but still small overall market share. 16 US Passenger Miles
Transit: [WERT]% Uber Rail: [WERT] [WERT] % %
> > >
Car Total [WERT] %
Uber reaches 32 % of US Americans 32%
101,6 Mio.
Uber reaches 101,6 Mio Americans. 0.07 % of US Passenger Miles are travelled by ridesharing services like Uber or Lyft. Big Changes in urban mobility but less so in national data.
17
New Products: Urban mobility becomes more diverse
Conclusions. • More constraints due to regulation • More choices due to innovative services and products • Changes in attitude and lifestyle lead to a more flexible and spontaneous mode choice • Competitive environment on a day to day basis not only once in years at the autodealer – the customer decides every morning which transportation means fits her needs best • Industry needs to adress these day to day challenges and choices the customer faces, if not, others will take over the field
18
