The Future of Nuclear Power â The Discussion in Germany
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik
PD Dr. Lutz Mez Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik Freie Universität Berlin [email protected] www.fu-berlin.de/ffu
The Future of Nuclear Power – The Discussion in Germany Tokyo, November 22, 2010
Outline - Nuclear power - a marginal energy source - A nuclear renaissance? - Problems of the nuclear industry - Economics of nuclear power - Lack of near-term prospects - Combat climate change with nuclear power? - Conclusions
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
2
Global Total Primary Energy Supply
Quelle: IEA 2008 Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
3
Global Gross Electricity Generation
Quelle: IEA 2008 Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
4
Global Total Final Energy Consumption
Quelle: IEA 2008 Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
5
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
6
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
7
Role of Nuclear Electricity in Total Final Energy Consumption of the six largest producers (2006) F
JAP
D
USA
RUS
TPES in Mtoe
272.7
216.5
527.6
348.6
2,320.7
676.2
Electricity gener. in TWh
574.5
404.0
1,100.4
636.8
4,300.1
993.9
Nuclear el. gen. in TWh
450.2
148.7
303.4
167.3
816.2
156.4
78.4
36.8
27.6
26.3
19.0
15.7
174.0
145.1
351.8
253.6
1,527.2
431.7
Nuclear FE in Mtoe
26.6
11.8
23.3
11.9
60.8
9.2
Share of Nuclear electricity TFEC in %
15.3
8.1
6.6
4.7
4.0
2.1
Share in % TFEC in Mtoe [1
KOR
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
8
Global role of Nuclear Electricity of TFEC (2006)
1. Share of Nuclear of Electricity generation: 14.8% 2. Share of Electricity of Total Final Energy Consumption: 16.7% 3. Share of Nuclear Electricity of TFEC: 2.47%
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
9
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
10
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
11
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
12
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
13
Global expansion of installed capacity - 150,000 MW new generation capacity was taken worldwide
into operation in 2007 - thereof NPPs: 1,857 MW (1.2%) - In 2008 for the first time since 1956 NO new NPP was
taken into operation. - In 2009 two NPPs – Tomari-3 in Japan and Rajasthan 5 -
were connected to the grid – and three NPPs shut down. - In 2010 five NPPs were connected to the grid – and until
September one NPP shut down.
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
14
Problems of the nuclear industry - Unsolved nuclear waste storage problem - Industrial capacities - Lack of skilled workforce - Costs & Financing - Proliferation - Terror risks - Flu epidemics
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
15
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
16
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
17
Arguments? Earlier: NPPs are very cheap (Too Cheap to Meter) Today: NPPs are cheaper as all alternatives How did the costs for NPPs develop in reality?
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
18
Development of NPP construction costs
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
19
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
20
NPP construction costs - estimates Up to 2002: nuclear industry predicted construction costs of $1000/kW for new type Generation III(+) 2004: Olkiluoto contract price $3000/kW (2000 €/kW) - real $4000-4500/ kW or more 2007-08: US estimates about $5000/kW 2009: Ontario tenders $6700/kW and $10000/kW Cost estimates before construction always an under-estimate
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
21
Factors for construction costs increase • All generation technologies hit by China effect but nuclear much more
so than others. What other factors? • More realistic estimates as companies have to deliver on their
promises • Learning from Olkiluoto • Depreciation of the dollar • Will manufacturing bottlenecks and skill shortages make things even
worse? • Which if any of these factors is reversible?
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
22
« US may have seen last new nuclear. coal plant » Asked about challenges facing construction of new nuclear and coal power plants. Wellinghoff allowed that "we may not need any. ever." That's a "theoretical question" because « I don't see anybody building these things until costs get to a reasonable level. » He characterized the projected costs of new nuclear plants as prohibitive. citing estimates of roughly $7.000/kW.
Jon Wellinghoff. Chairman of FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) April 2009 Source: Platts. 22 April 2009
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
23
Total GHG emissions of generation technologies
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
24
CO2 emissions from nuclear over time
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
25
Nuclear irrelevant to Climate Change Mitigation
“Nuclear power is unlikely to play a critical role in limiting CO2 equivalent concentrations in the atmosphere until mid-century at the earliest… No realistic plan foresees a reactor build rate that allows nuclear power to help stay below 550 ppme* CO2 within the next ~30-40 years.” Robert Rosner Director, Argonne National Laboratory April 2009 * The term ppme CO2 refers to parts per million equivalent CO2 concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
26
Nuclear Phase-out in Germany - Discourse on nuclear power & nuclear consensus - Problems of nuclear waste management - Final disposal of nuclear waste - Agreements between government and nuclear industry - Nuclear phase-out law - Nuclear power and CDU-CSU-SPD government - Actual discussion after the last federal elections - German energy concept - 10-point Immediate Action Program
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
27
Nuclear Power Plants in Germany in operation and shut-down
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
28
Framework conditions for Nuclear phase-out in Germany - There are 17 nuclear power plants operating in Germany
which provide about one quarter of total electricity generated - 19 NPPs are already shutdown and partly totally dismantled - Technical operation time is between 20 and 40 years pending on the parts
concerned - Since 2002 the world-wide capacities have been declining: operation times of
commercial nuclear plants already shutdown have been between 12 and 31 calendar years, and 21 years in average - In contrast to the legal situation in most other countries, in Germany the
operation licenses were unlimited - There has been a recall of unlimited licenses for coal fired plants in the 1980s -
this was approved by the Constitutional Court
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
29
Phasing-Out Nuclear Power in Germany - Policy targets
- The coalition of the Green party and Social Democrats agreed to design a path for the
definite phase-out of nuclear power
- The phase-out should not give rise to any financial compensation of industry - Negotiations between industry and the government should be finished within one year - If negotiations fail, a law will be enacted to limit the remaining time of operation - Different measures will be taken to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy
production
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
30
Phasing-out nuclear power in Germany - Evaluation - Agreement reached in 2000, signed 2001 - Atomic Energy Act amendment January 2002 - Ending the promotion of nuclear energy - Introduction of obligatory safety reviews - Abandonment of reprocessing and restriction of waste management to direct
final storage
- Raising the level of insurance cover for nuclear accident liability from € 255.7
million to € 2.56 billion
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
31
Electricity Production Rights of German NPPs
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
32
Nuclear safety…
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
33
Nuclear Power discussion today…
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
34
Asse Research Mine
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
35
126.000 barrels of nuclear waste
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
36
Storage of radioactive waste in Asse
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
37
Asse Research Mine
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
38
Problems of final nuclear waste disposal - Shutdown
of German NPPs according Atomic Act until appr. 2023
- Intermediate storage - Start of final storage about 2030 - Completion of final storage activities –> 2100 - Period for secure depositing of nuclear waste
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
39
Nuclear demolition and waste disposal costs AKW & install.Leistung in MW
Abriss- & Entsorgungskosten Mio. €
A- & E-Kosten spezifisch €/kW
AKW Stade 672 MW
500
744
AKW Niederaichbach 106 MW
135
1.274
THTR Hamm-Uentrop 308 MW
1.700
5.519
AKW Lubmin 6 x 440 MW
3.200
1.212
350
5.000
AKW Rheinsberg 70 MW
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
40
German Energy Concept - Renewable energies as a cornerstone of future energy supply - Energy efficiency as the key factor - Nuclear power and fossil-fuel power plants - An efficient grid infrastructure for electricity and integration of
renewables - Energy upgrades for buildings and energy-efficient newbuild - The mobility challenge - Energy research towards innovation and new technologies - Energy supply in the European and international context - Acceptance and transparency
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
41
Conclusions • Nuclear power plays a modest role in present global energy supply – and will
not be much larger in the future
• The international relevance of nuclear power is rather decreasing – no sign for
a nuclear renaissance at all
• Evidence from Finland, USA & France does not show that new nuclear can be
built without special arrangements to protect them from the market
• The alarming rise in construction cost estimates, emerging skills shortages and
production bottlenecks are problems that will not be quick or cheap to overcome
• Costs for decommissioning and recovery and cleaning up of NPPs are often
higher than the construction costs
• The financial crisis amplifies all these problems for the nuclear industry • The nuclear industry must convince S&P or Moodys, not the public • NPPs cannot combat climate change – and their GHG emissions are rising
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
42
Thank you for your attention! PD Dr. Lutz Mez FFU. Ihnestr. 22. D-14195 Berlin Email: [email protected]
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
43
PD Dr. Lutz Mez Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik Freie Universität Berlin [email protected] www.fu-berlin.de/ffu
The Future of Nuclear Power – The Discussion in Germany Tokyo, November 22, 2010
Outline - Nuclear power - a marginal energy source - A nuclear renaissance? - Problems of the nuclear industry - Economics of nuclear power - Lack of near-term prospects - Combat climate change with nuclear power? - Conclusions
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
2
Global Total Primary Energy Supply
Quelle: IEA 2008 Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
3
Global Gross Electricity Generation
Quelle: IEA 2008 Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
4
Global Total Final Energy Consumption
Quelle: IEA 2008 Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
5
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
6
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
7
Role of Nuclear Electricity in Total Final Energy Consumption of the six largest producers (2006) F
JAP
D
USA
RUS
TPES in Mtoe
272.7
216.5
527.6
348.6
2,320.7
676.2
Electricity gener. in TWh
574.5
404.0
1,100.4
636.8
4,300.1
993.9
Nuclear el. gen. in TWh
450.2
148.7
303.4
167.3
816.2
156.4
78.4
36.8
27.6
26.3
19.0
15.7
174.0
145.1
351.8
253.6
1,527.2
431.7
Nuclear FE in Mtoe
26.6
11.8
23.3
11.9
60.8
9.2
Share of Nuclear electricity TFEC in %
15.3
8.1
6.6
4.7
4.0
2.1
Share in % TFEC in Mtoe [1
KOR
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
8
Global role of Nuclear Electricity of TFEC (2006)
1. Share of Nuclear of Electricity generation: 14.8% 2. Share of Electricity of Total Final Energy Consumption: 16.7% 3. Share of Nuclear Electricity of TFEC: 2.47%
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
9
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
10
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
11
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
12
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
13
Global expansion of installed capacity - 150,000 MW new generation capacity was taken worldwide
into operation in 2007 - thereof NPPs: 1,857 MW (1.2%) - In 2008 for the first time since 1956 NO new NPP was
taken into operation. - In 2009 two NPPs – Tomari-3 in Japan and Rajasthan 5 -
were connected to the grid – and three NPPs shut down. - In 2010 five NPPs were connected to the grid – and until
September one NPP shut down.
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
14
Problems of the nuclear industry - Unsolved nuclear waste storage problem - Industrial capacities - Lack of skilled workforce - Costs & Financing - Proliferation - Terror risks - Flu epidemics
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
15
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
16
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
17
Arguments? Earlier: NPPs are very cheap (Too Cheap to Meter) Today: NPPs are cheaper as all alternatives How did the costs for NPPs develop in reality?
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
18
Development of NPP construction costs
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
19
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
20
NPP construction costs - estimates Up to 2002: nuclear industry predicted construction costs of $1000/kW for new type Generation III(+) 2004: Olkiluoto contract price $3000/kW (2000 €/kW) - real $4000-4500/ kW or more 2007-08: US estimates about $5000/kW 2009: Ontario tenders $6700/kW and $10000/kW Cost estimates before construction always an under-estimate
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
21
Factors for construction costs increase • All generation technologies hit by China effect but nuclear much more
so than others. What other factors? • More realistic estimates as companies have to deliver on their
promises • Learning from Olkiluoto • Depreciation of the dollar • Will manufacturing bottlenecks and skill shortages make things even
worse? • Which if any of these factors is reversible?
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
22
« US may have seen last new nuclear. coal plant » Asked about challenges facing construction of new nuclear and coal power plants. Wellinghoff allowed that "we may not need any. ever." That's a "theoretical question" because « I don't see anybody building these things until costs get to a reasonable level. » He characterized the projected costs of new nuclear plants as prohibitive. citing estimates of roughly $7.000/kW.
Jon Wellinghoff. Chairman of FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) April 2009 Source: Platts. 22 April 2009
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
23
Total GHG emissions of generation technologies
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
24
CO2 emissions from nuclear over time
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
25
Nuclear irrelevant to Climate Change Mitigation
“Nuclear power is unlikely to play a critical role in limiting CO2 equivalent concentrations in the atmosphere until mid-century at the earliest… No realistic plan foresees a reactor build rate that allows nuclear power to help stay below 550 ppme* CO2 within the next ~30-40 years.” Robert Rosner Director, Argonne National Laboratory April 2009 * The term ppme CO2 refers to parts per million equivalent CO2 concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
26
Nuclear Phase-out in Germany - Discourse on nuclear power & nuclear consensus - Problems of nuclear waste management - Final disposal of nuclear waste - Agreements between government and nuclear industry - Nuclear phase-out law - Nuclear power and CDU-CSU-SPD government - Actual discussion after the last federal elections - German energy concept - 10-point Immediate Action Program
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
27
Nuclear Power Plants in Germany in operation and shut-down
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
28
Framework conditions for Nuclear phase-out in Germany - There are 17 nuclear power plants operating in Germany
which provide about one quarter of total electricity generated - 19 NPPs are already shutdown and partly totally dismantled - Technical operation time is between 20 and 40 years pending on the parts
concerned - Since 2002 the world-wide capacities have been declining: operation times of
commercial nuclear plants already shutdown have been between 12 and 31 calendar years, and 21 years in average - In contrast to the legal situation in most other countries, in Germany the
operation licenses were unlimited - There has been a recall of unlimited licenses for coal fired plants in the 1980s -
this was approved by the Constitutional Court
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
29
Phasing-Out Nuclear Power in Germany - Policy targets
- The coalition of the Green party and Social Democrats agreed to design a path for the
definite phase-out of nuclear power
- The phase-out should not give rise to any financial compensation of industry - Negotiations between industry and the government should be finished within one year - If negotiations fail, a law will be enacted to limit the remaining time of operation - Different measures will be taken to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy
production
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
30
Phasing-out nuclear power in Germany - Evaluation - Agreement reached in 2000, signed 2001 - Atomic Energy Act amendment January 2002 - Ending the promotion of nuclear energy - Introduction of obligatory safety reviews - Abandonment of reprocessing and restriction of waste management to direct
final storage
- Raising the level of insurance cover for nuclear accident liability from € 255.7
million to € 2.56 billion
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
31
Electricity Production Rights of German NPPs
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
32
Nuclear safety…
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
33
Nuclear Power discussion today…
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
34
Asse Research Mine
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
35
126.000 barrels of nuclear waste
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
36
Storage of radioactive waste in Asse
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
37
Asse Research Mine
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
38
Problems of final nuclear waste disposal - Shutdown
of German NPPs according Atomic Act until appr. 2023
- Intermediate storage - Start of final storage about 2030 - Completion of final storage activities –> 2100 - Period for secure depositing of nuclear waste
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
39
Nuclear demolition and waste disposal costs AKW & install.Leistung in MW
Abriss- & Entsorgungskosten Mio. €
A- & E-Kosten spezifisch €/kW
AKW Stade 672 MW
500
744
AKW Niederaichbach 106 MW
135
1.274
THTR Hamm-Uentrop 308 MW
1.700
5.519
AKW Lubmin 6 x 440 MW
3.200
1.212
350
5.000
AKW Rheinsberg 70 MW
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
40
German Energy Concept - Renewable energies as a cornerstone of future energy supply - Energy efficiency as the key factor - Nuclear power and fossil-fuel power plants - An efficient grid infrastructure for electricity and integration of
renewables - Energy upgrades for buildings and energy-efficient newbuild - The mobility challenge - Energy research towards innovation and new technologies - Energy supply in the European and international context - Acceptance and transparency
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
41
Conclusions • Nuclear power plays a modest role in present global energy supply – and will
not be much larger in the future
• The international relevance of nuclear power is rather decreasing – no sign for
a nuclear renaissance at all
• Evidence from Finland, USA & France does not show that new nuclear can be
built without special arrangements to protect them from the market
• The alarming rise in construction cost estimates, emerging skills shortages and
production bottlenecks are problems that will not be quick or cheap to overcome
• Costs for decommissioning and recovery and cleaning up of NPPs are often
higher than the construction costs
• The financial crisis amplifies all these problems for the nuclear industry • The nuclear industry must convince S&P or Moodys, not the public • NPPs cannot combat climate change – and their GHG emissions are rising
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
42
Thank you for your attention! PD Dr. Lutz Mez FFU. Ihnestr. 22. D-14195 Berlin Email: [email protected]
Forschungszentrum für Umweltpolitik. Lutz Mez
43
