The Outlook for Energy:
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 William Colton December 8, 2011
Global Progress Drives Demand Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion 21
Trillion 2005$ 120 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.9% 100
Quadrillion BTUs 1400 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.9% 1200
18
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8%
15
1000
Energy Saved ~500
80
12
800
60
9
600
40
6
400
Non OECD 3
20
200
OECD 0 1990
2015
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile Billion 2.0
OECD
China
1.6
1.2
Age 65+
0.8
Age 15 – 64 0.4
Age 0 – 14 0.0 2010
Source: World Bank
2040
India
Africa
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Quadrillion BTUs 300
250
200
150
2040 2025 2010
100
50
0 Res/Comm
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Transportation
90% By 2040, 90% of transportation will run on liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth Commercial
Personal
MBDOE
MBDOE
50
50
Rail 40
40
Marine
30
Aviation
20
20
Heavy Duty Vehicles
10
0 1990
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
30
2015
2040
Light Duty Vehicles 10
0 1990
2015
2040
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Million Vehicles
On-Road MPG
1750
80
1500
70
1250
Rest of Non OECD
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
60 50
1000
China
40
750 30
United States 500
20
250
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Rest of OECD
10 0
2020
2040
US
Europe
China
Japan
India
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Million Vehicles
On-Road MPG
1750
Natural gas/LPG 1500
70
PHV/EV
60
1250
Hybrid 1000
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
80
50
Conv. Diesel 40
750 30
2010
500
Conv. Gasoline 250
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
20 10 0
2020
2040
US
Europe
China
Japan
India
Electricity Generation
+80% By 2040, worldwide electricity demand will be 80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge Baseload, Startup 2030
Fuel Into Electricity Generation
2011 cents/kWh
Quadrillion BTUs
300
20
Renewables
$60/ton CO2
Wind
250 15
Nuclear
200
150
10
Coal
100 5
50
$0/ton CO2
0 Coal
Gas
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Nuclear
Wind *
Oil 0 1990
Gas
2015
2040
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 250
0.7%
0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
2040
200
1.6%
2010 150
-0.2%
100
2.2%
0.3%
50
6.0%
1.6%
0 Oil
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/Other
Wind / Solar / Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
CO2 Emissions Plateau By Region
Emissions per Capita
Billion Tons
Tons per Person
40
20 2010
30
Rest of Non OECD
15
2025
India & Africa 2040
10
20
China
5
10
OECD
0 1990
0 2015
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2040
U.S.
Europe
China
India
Supply
By 2040
60% of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify Liquids Supply
Resource *
MBDOE
TBO
120
5
Biofuels NGLs
100
4
Remaining Resource
Deepwater 80
Tight Oil Oil Sands
3
60
2 40
Conventional Crude and Condensate 2010 1
20
0 2000
0 2010
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2020
2030
2040
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
Cumulative Production through 2040
Global Oil Production by Discovery Date MBDOE
100
2000s 80
1990s 1980s
60
1970s
40
1960s 1950s
1940s
20
1930s
Discovered before 1930 0 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data
1995
2000
2005
2010
Global Gas Resource 8.1 •World: ~250 years coverage at current demand •Large unconventional gains anticipated 4.8
1.3
4.9
Europe OECD
Russia/Caspian*
North America* 1000 TCF 30
2.3 Middle East
25 20
Unconventional
2.6 Africa
15 10
Conventional
Latin America
5 0
4.1
World
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
Asia Pacific
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables 100
Nuclear Hydro 80
Gas 60
Oil
40
20
0
Coal
Biomass 1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
1900
1950
2000
2040
Global Progress Drives Demand Population
GDP
Energy Demand
Billion 21
Trillion 2005$ 120 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.9% 100
Quadrillion BTUs 1400 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.9% 1200
18
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8%
15
1000
Energy Saved ~500
80
12
800
60
9
600
40
6
400
Non OECD 3
20
200
OECD 0 1990
2015
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile Billion 2.0
OECD
China
1.6
1.2
Age 65+
0.8
Age 15 – 64 0.4
Age 0 – 14 0.0 2010
Source: World Bank
2040
India
Africa
Electricity Generation Leads Growth Quadrillion BTUs 300
250
200
150
2040 2025 2010
100
50
0 Res/Comm
Transportation
Industrial
Electricity Generation
Transportation
90% By 2040, 90% of transportation will run on liquid petroleum-based fuels.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth Commercial
Personal
MBDOE
MBDOE
50
50
Rail 40
40
Marine
30
Aviation
20
20
Heavy Duty Vehicles
10
0 1990
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
30
2015
2040
Light Duty Vehicles 10
0 1990
2015
2040
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Million Vehicles
On-Road MPG
1750
80
1500
70
1250
Rest of Non OECD
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
60 50
1000
China
40
750 30
United States 500
20
250
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Rest of OECD
10 0
2020
2040
US
Europe
China
Japan
India
Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type
Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040
Million Vehicles
On-Road MPG
1750
Natural gas/LPG 1500
70
PHV/EV
60
1250
Hybrid 1000
2020-2025 Target 2015 Target
80
50
Conv. Diesel 40
750 30
2010
500
Conv. Gasoline 250
0 2000
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
20 10 0
2020
2040
US
Europe
China
Japan
India
Electricity Generation
+80% By 2040, worldwide electricity demand will be 80% higher.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge Baseload, Startup 2030
Fuel Into Electricity Generation
2011 cents/kWh
Quadrillion BTUs
300
20
Renewables
$60/ton CO2
Wind
250 15
Nuclear
200
150
10
Coal
100 5
50
$0/ton CO2
0 Coal
Gas
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Nuclear
Wind *
Oil 0 1990
Gas
2015
2040
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 250
0.7%
0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
2040
200
1.6%
2010 150
-0.2%
100
2.2%
0.3%
50
6.0%
1.6%
0 Oil
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/Other
Wind / Solar / Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
CO2 Emissions Plateau By Region
Emissions per Capita
Billion Tons
Tons per Person
40
20 2010
30
Rest of Non OECD
15
2025
India & Africa 2040
10
20
China
5
10
OECD
0 1990
0 2015
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2040
U.S.
Europe
China
India
Supply
By 2040
60% of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify Liquids Supply
Resource *
MBDOE
TBO
120
5
Biofuels NGLs
100
4
Remaining Resource
Deepwater 80
Tight Oil Oil Sands
3
60
2 40
Conventional Crude and Condensate 2010 1
20
0 2000
0 2010
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2020
2030
2040
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
Cumulative Production through 2040
Global Oil Production by Discovery Date MBDOE
100
2000s 80
1990s 1980s
60
1970s
40
1960s 1950s
1940s
20
1930s
Discovered before 1930 0 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data
1995
2000
2005
2010
Global Gas Resource 8.1 •World: ~250 years coverage at current demand •Large unconventional gains anticipated 4.8
1.3
4.9
Europe OECD
Russia/Caspian*
North America* 1000 TCF 30
2.3 Middle East
25 20
Unconventional
2.6 Africa
15 10
Conventional
Latin America
5 0
4.1
World
Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
Asia Pacific
Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables 100
Nuclear Hydro 80
Gas 60
Oil
40
20
0
Coal
Biomass 1800
1850
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
1900
1950
2000
2040
