THE REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES IN TEXTILES OF TURKEY IN TRADE WITH EUROPEAN UNION (1990-1997)
Dr. Feride Doganer Gonel Yildiz Technical University, Besiktas, Istanbul
ABSTRACT Several measures of comparative advantage have been used in the international trade literature. One of them is the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and it has been widely applied in numerous studies since it had been introduced by Balassa. Although widely used, the RCA is not the only index for measuring international trade specialization. Many other measures including the Michaely index, the Donges-Riedel measure, UNIDO measures (net exports ratio), Wolter index and etc. have been suggested. This study has two-fold objectives; first, using Turkey’s textile industry data, it attempts to analyze the comparative advantage of Turkish trade with European Union over the 1990-1997 period, second, it compares the RCA to other measures of comparative advantage to identify whether all of them indeed measure the same trend or not. The paper is organized as follows. Firstly, section 1 contains the definition of RCA and other alternative measures of trade specialization. The difference between the alternative comparative advantage (CA) indices is assessed in this section. Then in section 2, after a brief explanation about the structure and importance of Turkish textile industry, various CA indices are calculated. Finally, section 3 summarizes the results.
2 INTRODUCTION The textile and clothing industry is one whose production process is highly intensive in unskilled labor. Since this is a factor with which developing countries are relatively wellendowed, exports of textile and clothing products are argued to have been the “obvious choice for developing countries for their industrialization effort”. Indeed, the development of textile and clothing industry has been an important “first step” of many developed countries industrialization progression.
So there is a quite severe competition among developing
countries in order to get larger share from the market or even to sustain their share for long periods of time. On the other hand, since the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing will abolish all quota restrictions in trade in textiles and clothing by the year 2005, this competition will become more severe; because quotas will no longer guarantee markets and even the domestic market will be open to competition. Textiles and clothing industry has long been an important component of international trade and trade in this industry1 is conducted on an immense scale. Textile and clothing industries were responsible for 5.9 per cent of world exports and 7.9 per cent of world export of manufactures in 1999 (WTO 2001: 141-154). 1. MEASURES OF REVEALED COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND OTHER ALTERNATIVES The concept of comparative advantage is widely accepted, but at the same time CA in a particular commodity by a country is difficult to measure. Therefore, attempts have been made to approximate the concept in an indirect way. These indirect methods use information “revealed” from post-trade situations and assumptions about the relationship between observable and unobservable variables (Greenaway & Milner, 1993: 181) Therefore these indexes of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), are in fact, useful as one of the few formal ways of measuring the sector identity and intensity of a country’s comparative advantage and disadvantage.
1
Sometimes we call them wearing and apparel
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1.1 Balassa’s Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage Among the measures of RCA that use only trade data, several versions have been adopted in the literature. One of the most widely applied is developed by Balassa (1989: 90-123) In fact, he used two different indices: the export-import ratio and an export performance index. The export-import ratio has been normalized by dividing the export-import ratio of a country for a given industry by that for the world: RCA1 = (Xij / Mij) / (Xiw / Miwi)
(1)
Where Xij and Mij refer respectively to exports and imports of industry i and country j; Xiw and Miw refer respectively to world exports and world imports of industry i. On the other hand the second measure is based on export data only and is calculated by dividing a country’s share in the exports of a given commodity category by the share in the world exports of manufactured goods: RCA2 = (Xij / Xiw) / (Σ Xij / Σ Xiw) * 100
(2)
Where Xiw and Xij are the world’s and country j’s export of industry i, and Σ Xij , Σ Xiw are the total exports of manufactures for country j and the world w respectively. If the latter index, as the basic index of RCA, takes a value of greater than 100, then the share of industry i in country j’s exports is larger than the corresponding world share, and therefore country j has a revealed comparative advantage in industry i. 1.2 The Donges and Riedel Measure Another measure of CA calculated by Donges and Riedel (1977: 58-85), defines the RCA index as the ratio between the share of country j’s net exports of industry i in its total trade of industry i, divided by corresponding share of net exports for all manufacturing industries, and adjusted for the surplus or deficit in total manufacturing: RCA3 = { [ (Xij-Mij) / (Xij+Mij) ] / [ (Σ Xij-Σ Mij ) / (Σ Xij+Σ Mij ) ] –1}*100
(3)
+1 for (Σ Xij-Σ Mij ) > 0 With the expression within brackets times -1
for
(Σ Xij-Σ Mij ) < 0
where X and M refers the value of country j’s exports and imports of industry i, respectively. If the value greater zero, it indicates that the country has a comparative advantage, and vice versa.
4 The numerator of this measure is called as the revealed net exports ratio (RNEX) and is used as an index of RCA: RCA4 = [ (Xij-Mij) / (Xij+Mij) ] *100
(4)
The value ranges between the two extreme values of –100 (for industries that were imported but not exported) and +100 (for industries that were exported but not imported). 1.3 Wolter Index Wolter (1977: 251-267) suggested another but more simple measure with the same variables: RCA5 = (Xij / Mij) / (Σ Xij / Σ Mij )
(5)
where Xij , Mij denote the total value of exports and imports of industry i of country j, and denote total value of exports and imports of the country. In fact, the RCA indexemployed here, provides information about the relative export performance of a certain industry with respect to other industry groups in the country. 1.4 Michaely Index RCA6 = ( Xij / ΣXij ) – ( Mij / ΣMij )
(6)
where Xij , Mij denote the total value of exports and imports of industry i of country j. The first part of the formula represents the percentage share of a given sector in country’s exports, while the latter part represents the percentage share of a given sector in country’s imports. The measure ranges between –1 and +1, with a neutral value of zero. If the value of the index is positive, a country is specialised in a sector, while given a negative value, a country is said to be under-specialised in a sector. 1.5 Export Share Ratio RCA7 = (Xij / ΣXij ) / (Xjw / ΣXw )
(7)
where Xij is exports by country j in industry (or commodity) i and ΣXij is total exports of country j, Xjw is the total world trade in industry, while ΣXw is total world trade. This formula analyses a country’s world export share of an industry with the country’s total export share of total world exports. If a country j’s share of world exports of industry i is greater than countryj’s share of world exports of all goods, the RCA will be greater than 1 which suggests the same as the other formulas do.
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2. TURKISH TEXTILE INDUSTRY AND ITS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN TRADE WITH EUROPEAN UNION The textile and clothing industry is among the most globalized industry and is currently undergoing a series of dramatic changes; in this sense, technology is reftected more in the design, management and marketing process of the industry, and this development affects on industry’s structure and the mode of competition. 2.1 The Importance of Turkish Textile and Clothing Industry in the World Market As a driving force for Turkish economy, textile and clothing industry generates around $20 billion a year, it accounts for 10.4 % of the GNP, 39% of industrial output, 47.5% of manufacturing output, 21% of the total industrial employment, 10% of the total employment and 38.4% of the merchandise exports (SPO 1998). Table 1. Fifteen Leading Exporters of Textiles and Clothing, 1999 Textiles Country China
Value ($ billion) 13.0
Clothing
Share in Country world exports 8.7 China
Value ($ billion) 30.08
Share in world exports 16.2
Hong Kong
12.2
8.2
Hong Kong
22.37
12.0
Germany
11.8
7.9
Italy
13.24
7.1
Italy
11.7
7.9
USA
8.27
4.4
Korea, Rep.
11.6
7.8
Mexico
7.81
4.2
Taiwan
10.9
7.3
Germany
7.44
4.0
USA
9.5
6.4
Turkey
7.14
3.5
France
7.0
4.7
France
5.69
3.1
Japan
6.5
4.3
Korea, Rep.
4.87
2.6
Belgium-Lux.
6.5
4.3
India
4.78
2.6
Pakistan
4.5
3.0
UK
4.49
2.4
India
4.5
3.0
Indonesia
3.86
2.1
UK
4.4
2.9
Belgium-Lux.
3.83
2.1
Netherlands
3.8
2.5
Bangladesh
3.79
2.1
Turkey
3.4
2.2
Thailand
3.45
1.9
World
147.9
186.0
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Source: WTO, International Trade Statistics 2000, http://www.wto.org In this framework, Turkey ranks as the fifteenth largest textile and seventh largest clothing exporter in the world (Table 1). Since textile production is more capital-intensive than clothing production, it is expected some developed countries such as USA, Japan, France, Germany and UK should be found in the group of textile exporters, and the developing countries in the group of clothing exporters. 2.2 The Importance of Turkish Textile and Clothing Industry in Turkish Trade Table 2. Turkey’s Textile and Clothing Industry Export Total Exports (000 $)
Textile
Clothing
1989
11,625,000
Value (000 $) 1,338,000
% in Total Exports 11.5
Value (000 $) 2,448,000
% in Total Exports 21.0
1990
12,959,289
1,424,249
10.9
2,898,349
22.3
1991
13,593,539
1,374,357
10.1
3,219,350
23.7
1992
14,365,414
1,369,322
9.5
4,009,615
28.0
1993
15,345,000
1,457,490
9.5
4,157,997
27.1
1994
18,107,000
1,944,818
10.7
4,490,043
24.8
1995
21,637,041
2,130,665
9.8
6,188,502
28.6
1996
23,224,465
2,352,142
10.1
6,344,252
27.3
1997
26,261,072
2,730,421
10.4
7,088,669
27.0
1998
26,973,952
2,811,763
10.4
7,644,051
28.3
1999
26,588,264
2,733,641
10.3
7,145,053
26.8
Source: The Undersecreteriat of Foreign Trade Table 2 displays the Turkish textile and clothing exports from 1989 to 1999. As it is observed, over the last ten years, Turkey’s textile exports have increased by 104%, while the clothing exports increased by 192%. The percentage of textile and clothing exports in total Turkish exports has been over 35% for the last eight years.
7 2.3 Turkey’s Textile and Clothing Trade with European Union The share of exports to EU in total exports increased by 57.4% in 1999. In spite of a slight decrease in Turkey’s total exports (- 1.4%), exports to EU reached 14.3 billion dollar in 1999, increasing by 6.3%. Therefore, the share of EU countries in total exports, which was Turkey is the largest textile supplier and the second largest clothing supplier of the European Union (Table 3). Table 3. European Union’s Top Five Textile and Clothing Suppliers, 1999 (000 Euros) Textile Turkey
India
China
USA
Switzerland
1770.4
1637.1
1413.5
1317.5
1136.5
Clothing China
Turkey
Hong Kong
Tunusia
Morocco
6556.2
4567.8
2767.1
2377.1
2114.4
Source: EUROTEX For the Turkish textile and clothing exporters, there is a very heavy reliance on the European Union (EU) market; 56% of Turkey’s textile and 66% of her clothing exports are sent to EU. Especially Italy is the largest market, Germany is the third largest market for Turkish textiles with a market share of 12% and 8% in 1999, respectively. At the same time Germany is the largest market for Turkish clothing with 38% share. After the Customs Union, the European Union’s quantity restrictions on Turkish textile and clothing were eliminated. The Turkish exporters have been expecting an increase in exports from this agreement, but only 4.74% increase in the exports has been realized (Table 4). Table 4. The Share of Eurpean Union in Turkey’s Textile and Clothing Industry Export Value (000 $) Share (%) Percentage change
1995
1996
1997
1998
5,352,633
5,665,124
5,933,427
6,469,448
64.34
65.15
60.42
61.87
5.84
4.74
9.03
1999
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REFERENCES Balassa,
B.
(1965), “Trade Liberalization and “Revealed” Comparative Advantage,”
Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 33 (May) reprinted as ch. 4 of Balassa (1989) Balassa, B. (1989), Comparative Advantage, Trade Policy and Economic Development, NewYork University Press, NewYork Donges, J. & J. Riedel (1977), “The Expansion of Manufactured Exports in Developing Countries: An Empirical Assessment of Supply and Demand Issues”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 113 Greenaway, D. & C. Milner (1993), Trade and Industrial Policy in Developing Countries, a Manual of Policy Analysis, Macmillan, Basingstoke. Memedovic, O. (1994), On the Theory and Measurement of Comparative Advantage, Thesis Publishers, Amsterdam Wolter, F. (1977), “Factor Proportion, Technology and West German Industry’s International Trade Patterns”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 113 World
Trade
Organization-WTO
(2001),
International
(http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/chap_3_e.pdf)
Trade
Statistics
2000