The RVP Weekly Hack April 7th - Real Vision
The RVP Weekly Hack April 7th Information overload drowns out what is relevant. The RVP Weekly Hack draws upon the expertise of the Contributors to Real Vision Publications and cuts straight to the most important issues and investment opportunities. Here to keep you ahead of the market.
If You Only Look At One Chart… Time is short, so here is one chart to get you thinking in a new direction.
Baby Boomers will be forced to divest from the equity market as they retire, whilst younger Baby Boomers’ risk tolerances decline, sucking further money out of equities.
Right Here, Right Now The best trading ideas of the week from RVP Contributors
Buy Bonds Say Sentimentrader & Stray Reflections While RVP welcomes discourse and discussion from all sides of the debate, this week Contributors were in agreement. At least over the near-term. US economic data appears to be topping, speculators remain heavily short US 10 Year Treasuries, and seasonality are all supportive of a reversal in yields and a rally in bonds. On 1 to 3 month time frame both Jawad Mian and Sentimentrader are recommending being long bonds/TLT ETF. Sentimentrader and Stray Reflections present their evidence for being long bonds/TLT.
The Big Call Legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said when you see something in the market that really, really excites you, "Bet the ranch on it." These are the Big Calls, the investment themes that can make or break you. Think differently from the crowd and have a different time horizon, and you have an edge. RVP, with its crack team of financial minds, identifies the Big Calls and guides you through the investment opportunities when they present themselves.
One Belt One Road The most ambitious (global) infrastructure project ever? While it is easy to get bearish on China in the short term, its long-term potential and impact on the world over the coming decades is likely to be significant. China has a huge advantage over much of the rest of the world – or certainly the Western world: Its politicians don’t have to bow to the whims of the electorate at every election cycle. Political control means China’s leadership can plan and deliver multi-decadal strategies to fulfil their international ambitions. It may not be to everyone’s taste, but it does mean that China gets things done. One Belt One Road (OBOR) is a $4tn global project to rekindle the old Silk Road trade routes. OBOR is ambitious – financially, geographically, socially, and politically – beyond anything we have seen in recent history. The financial and geopolitical implications are hard to overestimate. OBOR will present a plethora of investment opportunities in countries, stocks, and currencies. Get up to speed on OBOR, as this is a theme that will become more and more prominent in the coming years. CrossBorder (page 9 onward) & Pippa Malmgren (page 20) bring you the lowdown.
Are You On This Yet? In such a fast paced world staying on top of relevant market news and developments is tough. RVP scours the globe for the most interesting stories and distils them, keeping you ahead of the crowd.
The Retirement Crisis This is THE crisis of the next decade. Forewarned is forearmed.
“The first Baby Boomers, those born in 1946, are turning 71 this year. By law, that is the age which they must start withdrawing funds from their retirement plan. At the same time, younger Boomers will continue rebalancing their portfolio towards less volatile assets. This “natural” outflow from equities will increase dramatically over the next decade.” Says Samuel Gruen from Lightfield Capital. According to the Federal Reserve, unfunded state and local pension obligations have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007. Throw in the private sector and that figure is far greater. At the same time pension funds have been pushed up the risk curve as interest rates from fixed income are simply inadequate. Baby Boomers have never been more exposed to equities and are going to start to drawdown their capital for retirement. This structural shift will have a huge impact on equities for years to come. You will hear a lot more from us on this topic over the coming months and years. This is a crisis that won’t go away and will end up devastating many people’s wealth. For now we will leave you with the perceptive thoughts of Samuel Gruen @ Lightfield Capital.
Is Ethereum A Viable Alternative to Bitcoin? Crypto currencies are here to stay, but which one will prevail? With Bitcoin mired in negativity due to the scaling hostilities, Ethereum has rapidly grown its market cap and is now 1/3 the size of Bitcoin. Is this a re-run of Betamax vs VHS? Does first mover advantage count for much? One thing is clear to us, we are moving towards a world where crypto currencies become embedded in the fabric of our society. Such is their technical superiority over our current financial system, a complete overhaul is long overdue. The path to getting there and which crypto currency will prevail is less clear. Bitcoin and crypto currency expert Tuur Demeester delves in to Bitcoin vs Ethereum debate to see how they stack up.
If You Only Look At One Chart… Time is short, so here is one chart to get you thinking in a new direction.
Baby Boomers will be forced to divest from the equity market as they retire, whilst younger Baby Boomers’ risk tolerances decline, sucking further money out of equities.
Right Here, Right Now The best trading ideas of the week from RVP Contributors
Buy Bonds Say Sentimentrader & Stray Reflections While RVP welcomes discourse and discussion from all sides of the debate, this week Contributors were in agreement. At least over the near-term. US economic data appears to be topping, speculators remain heavily short US 10 Year Treasuries, and seasonality are all supportive of a reversal in yields and a rally in bonds. On 1 to 3 month time frame both Jawad Mian and Sentimentrader are recommending being long bonds/TLT ETF. Sentimentrader and Stray Reflections present their evidence for being long bonds/TLT.
The Big Call Legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller said when you see something in the market that really, really excites you, "Bet the ranch on it." These are the Big Calls, the investment themes that can make or break you. Think differently from the crowd and have a different time horizon, and you have an edge. RVP, with its crack team of financial minds, identifies the Big Calls and guides you through the investment opportunities when they present themselves.
One Belt One Road The most ambitious (global) infrastructure project ever? While it is easy to get bearish on China in the short term, its long-term potential and impact on the world over the coming decades is likely to be significant. China has a huge advantage over much of the rest of the world – or certainly the Western world: Its politicians don’t have to bow to the whims of the electorate at every election cycle. Political control means China’s leadership can plan and deliver multi-decadal strategies to fulfil their international ambitions. It may not be to everyone’s taste, but it does mean that China gets things done. One Belt One Road (OBOR) is a $4tn global project to rekindle the old Silk Road trade routes. OBOR is ambitious – financially, geographically, socially, and politically – beyond anything we have seen in recent history. The financial and geopolitical implications are hard to overestimate. OBOR will present a plethora of investment opportunities in countries, stocks, and currencies. Get up to speed on OBOR, as this is a theme that will become more and more prominent in the coming years. CrossBorder (page 9 onward) & Pippa Malmgren (page 20) bring you the lowdown.
Are You On This Yet? In such a fast paced world staying on top of relevant market news and developments is tough. RVP scours the globe for the most interesting stories and distils them, keeping you ahead of the crowd.
The Retirement Crisis This is THE crisis of the next decade. Forewarned is forearmed.
“The first Baby Boomers, those born in 1946, are turning 71 this year. By law, that is the age which they must start withdrawing funds from their retirement plan. At the same time, younger Boomers will continue rebalancing their portfolio towards less volatile assets. This “natural” outflow from equities will increase dramatically over the next decade.” Says Samuel Gruen from Lightfield Capital. According to the Federal Reserve, unfunded state and local pension obligations have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007. Throw in the private sector and that figure is far greater. At the same time pension funds have been pushed up the risk curve as interest rates from fixed income are simply inadequate. Baby Boomers have never been more exposed to equities and are going to start to drawdown their capital for retirement. This structural shift will have a huge impact on equities for years to come. You will hear a lot more from us on this topic over the coming months and years. This is a crisis that won’t go away and will end up devastating many people’s wealth. For now we will leave you with the perceptive thoughts of Samuel Gruen @ Lightfield Capital.
Is Ethereum A Viable Alternative to Bitcoin? Crypto currencies are here to stay, but which one will prevail? With Bitcoin mired in negativity due to the scaling hostilities, Ethereum has rapidly grown its market cap and is now 1/3 the size of Bitcoin. Is this a re-run of Betamax vs VHS? Does first mover advantage count for much? One thing is clear to us, we are moving towards a world where crypto currencies become embedded in the fabric of our society. Such is their technical superiority over our current financial system, a complete overhaul is long overdue. The path to getting there and which crypto currency will prevail is less clear. Bitcoin and crypto currency expert Tuur Demeester delves in to Bitcoin vs Ethereum debate to see how they stack up.
