Timber Mart-South Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011 -- Vol. 16 No. 3-A
Timber Mart-South Market News Quarterly Abridged Version
The Journal of Southern Timber Market News A Quarterly Report of the Market Conditions for Timber Products of the US South Copyright © 2011 by Timber Mart-South, Inc.
Tom Harris, Publisher (706)542-2832 (706)542-4756 Jacek Siry, Research Editor Sara Baldwin, Robert Simmons & Jonathan Smith, Editors Staff: Russell McCarty, Harrison Hood, Stephen Smith, Caleb Warnock and Justin Wright Mailing address: Timber Mart-South, 1860 Barnett Shoals Road, PMB 103-598, Athens, GA 30605. Phone: (706)542-4756 • Fax: (706)542-1670 • E-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.TimberMart-South.com Copyright © 2011:
This publication is copyrighted under the statutes of the United States. The compilation of facts and information herein contained are the subject of private property rights of the publisher. Reproduction or transmission, either manually or electronically, in whole or in part, without express permission of the owner or other unauthorized use, is not permitted. Publisher provides the information herein as a convenience to its readers. Publisher does not represent or endorse the truth, accuracy, reliability or completeness of any of the information contained in this publication. PUBLISHER PROVIDES THE INFORMATION IN THIS PUBLICATION ON AN ‘AS IS’ AND ‘AS AVAILABLE’ BASIS, WITH NO WARRANTIES WHATSOEVER. THOSE WHO USE PRICES PUBLISHED HERIN FOR A SPECIFIC PURPOSE, SALE OR CONTRACT DO SO AT THEIR OWN RISK. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE WILL PUBLISHER HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE WHATEVER CAUSED BY ANY READER’S RELIANCE ON INFORMATION OBTAINED THROUGH THIS NEWSLETTER.
ISSN 1945-4082A The University of Georgia Warnell School of Forestry & Natural Resources is under contract with the Frank W. Norris Foundation to compile and publish the TMS Market News.
Table of Contents of the Abridged Version Prices & Market Conditions ....................................................................................................3 Market Indicators ....................................................................................................................4 Lumber & Panel Indicators, US Building Construction, Pulp & Paper Indicators, Energy & Carbon Markets, Equity Markets, Manufacturing Activity Timberland Transactions .......................................................................................................12 Openings & Closings .............................................................................................................12 Biofuel & Bio-Energy.............................................................................................................16 Restructuring .........................................................................................................................16 Weather Etc...........................................................................................................................18
For a the full issue, please contact us or order http://www.tmart-south.com/tmart/subscrib.htm Please see our advertisers’ section; see a list on page 18.
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Timber Mart-South Market News Quarterly 3 nd Quarter 2011 – Vol. 16 No. 3-A
Prices & Market Conditions
quarterly averages $50 Sawtimber
$40 $/ton
South-wide timber markets weakened further in the 3rd Quarter. Stumpage prices for four out of the five major timber products moved lower, and all five prices were down from the same period in 2010. Dry weather over most of the South this quarter ensured ample supply, but demand remained depressed.
South-wide Pine Stumpage Prices
$30
Chip-n-saw
$20 Pulpwood
$10 $0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tim ber Mart-South
South-wide Average Stumpage Prices $/ton
Pine Sawtimber
year ago
3Q 11
2Q 11 up/(dn) 3Q 10 up/(dn)
$22.59
$23.80
($1.21)
quarterly averages
$28.15 ($5.56)
Note: for a table of the five major products, please see our full News Quarterly. Order or subscribe at http://www.tmart-south.com/tmart/subscrib.htm Pine Stumpage Prices All three south-wide average pine stumpage prices were lower this quarter, although only pine sawtimber declined more than one dollar per ton. Year-over-year pine sawtimber is down more than $5 per ton, while chip-n-saw is down about $2 per ton. Pine pulpwood held relatively steady this quarter and maintained a premium of about $1.33 per ton over hardwood pulpwood.
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South-wide Hardwood Stumpage Prices $30 $25 $20 $/ton
one quarter
$15
Mixed Hardwood Sawtimber
$10 $5
Pulpwood
$0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tim ber Mart-South
Hardwood Stumpage Prices The south-wide average mixed hardwood stumpage price eased upward for the second straight quarter, bucking the general downward trend of the other timber products. Mixed hardwood sawtimber averaged nearly the same as pine sawtimber for the first time this quarter. Hardwood pulpwood prices declined slightly for the quarter, and the average remains about one dollar per ton below the same period in 2010.
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Market Indicators Concerns that the stalling economy may descend into recession were somewhat relieved at the end of the quarter by reports that US manufacturing activity increased in September. The European economy has weakened, and its debt crisis threatens to impact the US. Meanwhile, the US Congress and Administration continue to spar over US debt and budgetary constraints. Natural disasters this quarter included deep drought in the US West, Hurricane Irene that ravaged the US Atlantic Coast, and an unusual earthquake that centered in rural Virginia, not far from Washington DC. Lumber and wood products markets were fairly stable this quarter, although at low levels, while paper and paperboard markets eased downwards.
Lumber & Panel Indicators The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite (FLC) went sideways and ended September at $265 per thousand board feet (mbf); the FLC was flat for the quarter, and up slightly from one year ago. The Southern Pine Composite (SPC) followed the same general trend as the FLC for the quarter, ending at $245 per mbf, but was down from a year ago. Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite $/mbf 30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
265
262
1.1%
251
5.6%
Random Lengths Southern Pine Composite $/mbf
Southern pine 2x4 lumber prices followed a trend similar to the FLC, flat for the quarter and up year-over-year. However, 2x10 lumber prices were down quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The Structural Panel Composite price ended September at $301 per thousand square feet, 3/8 inch basis (msf), up quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. Random Lengths Structural Panel Composite $/msf 30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
301
281
7.1%
278
8.3%
$575 $450 $325 $200
Random Lengths Structural Panel Weekly Composite Price ($/msf)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Southern pine plywood prices increased about $30 per msf or nearly 12 percent this quarter, with analysts attributing the rise to news of three plant closures scheduled by Georgia-Pacific. Southern Oriented Strand Board (OSB) prices were flat this quarter but up $20 per msf or about 15 percent from a year ago. The Hardwood Review US Kiln Dried Hardwood Lumber Index was $1,078 per thousand board feet (mbf) at the end of the quarter, down slightly from the end of June and down $140 per mbf from the end of September of 2010. Hardwood Lumber Price Kiln dried Index $/mbf
30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
245
244
0.4%
252
-2.8%
1078
1111
-3.0%
1218
-11.5%
Random Lengths Framing Lumber Weekly Composite Price ($/mbf)
$480 $370 $260 $150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Hardwood Review Kiln-Dried Hardwood Weekly Lumber Index ($/mbf)
$1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
The Southern Forest Products Association (SFPA) reported that southern pine lumber shipments have increased slightly year-to-date through July compared to the same period in 2010. However, shipments remain well below levels in the same period of 2006. For more details on mill activity this quarter, see Openings & Closings on page 12.
the current rate, total starts nation-wide for 2011 will be 565,000, above 2009’s record low but below 2010. US Residential Housing Starts, 000 units ytd Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
398
412
-3.3%
1,293
-69.2%
South Residential Housing Starts, 000 units ytd Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
204
212
-4.0%
653
-68.8%
Southern Pine Lumber Shipments billion bf, ytd Jul-11
Jul-10
% +/-
Jul-06
% +/-
7885
7177
9.9%
11478
-31.3%
SFPA US South Pine Lumber Shipments (Monthly 000 mbf)
1,900 1,500 1,100 700 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
According to the latest report from the APA Engineered Wood Association, combined southern panel production increased slightly in the 2nd Quarter. OSB production was up slightly for the quarter but down from the same period in 2010. Plywood production increased slightly for the quarter and year-over-year.
2.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total US privately-owned housing starts through August 2011 were 298,000 units, about 3 percent below the same period in 2010. Slow markets continue to reflect the overhang of pending foreclosures and a generous supply of both new and existing homes still for sale. New residential construction faces a nearly seven month supply of new homes as well as nine months of existing home supply at current sales rates. http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
Southern OSB Production billion sf 2Q11
1Q11
% +/-
2Q10
% +/-
2063
2009
2.7%
2281
-9.6%
Southern Plywood Production billion sf 2Q11
1Q11
% +/-
2Q10
% +/-
1528
1462
4.5%
1450
5.4%
APA Engineered Wood Association US Southern Panel Production (Quarterly 000 msf, 3/8" basis)
3,600 OSB 2,800 2,000 Plywood 1,200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Building Construction According to the US Census, housing starts remained weak this quarter. If starts continue at Page 6
US Census Bureau US Housing Starts (Monthly SAAR Million Units)
Residential remodeling activity has increased gradually in 2011 over 2010 according to the US Census. US Improvement Expenditures (Billion $) ytd Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
78.8
74.4
5.9%
98.0
-19.6%
US Census Improvement Expenditures (Million $ monthly) $17,000 $13,000 $9,000 $5,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Expenditures for the first eight months of 2011 were $78.8 billion, up nearly 6 percent from the
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
same period in 2010. If expenditures continue at the same rate, the total for 2011 will be about $118 billion, close to 2008 levels. http://www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html The Harvard University Leading Indicator for Remodeling Activity (LIRA) estimates total 2011 improvement expenditures will be about $111 billion, down slightly from 2010.
7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2006
Freddie Mac 30-year Fixed US Mortgage Monthly Average Rates (percent)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/media/lira/ Mortgage activity declined further this quarter according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Mortgage rates also continued to decline. The September average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 4.11 percent according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac). Fixed-rate mortgages averaged record lows the last week of September, with analysts attributing the drop to the Federal Reserve Bank’s plan to purchase additional mortgage-backed securities. 30-year Fixed US Mortgage Rates (percent) Sep-11
Jun-11
Δ +/-
Sep-10
Δ +/-
4.11
4.51
-0.40
4.35
-0.24
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The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) continued to maintain the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent again this quarter, and pledged to keep the rates at this level at least through mid-2013, saying that economic conditions are likely to warrant these exceptionally low levels. In September, the FOMC announced an even more accommodative policy of extending the average maturity of its treasury securities holdings as well as rolling over maturing treasuries. To provide support for mortgage markets, the FOMC will reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Pulp & Paper Indicators US paper and paperboard production has been decreasing gradually year-to-date through August according to the American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA). Total production was down slightly compared to the same period in 2010. Paper production was down about 3 percent, but paperboard production was nearly unchanged. For more details on mill activity this quarter, see Openings & Closings on page 12. AF&PA Paper & Paperboard Production million tons y-t-d Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
54,617
55,389
-1.4%
61,291
-10.9%
8,600
AF&PA Paper & Paperboard Production monthly 000 tons
$1,100 $900 $700 $500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Recovered corrugated container prices increased this quarter to levels not seen since 1995 according to Official Board Markets. Old Corrugated Container (OCC) monthly average prices in the South were $170 per ton in September, up $25 per ton from June and $45 per ton from a year ago. Analysts attributed the higher prices to lower levels of generation in the weak economy. Old Corrugated Containers - US South in $/ton
7,600 6,600 5,600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US pulp production more or less tracks paper and paperboard production. Softwood pulp prices declined this quarter. The FOEX Ltd. Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp price index ended September at $958 per ton, down about $65 per ton or 6 percent from the end of June, and down slightly from the end of September 2010. Bleached hardwood kraft pulp prices, at $789 per ton, were down about $85 per ton or almost 10 percent from the end of June. FOEX NBSK Index $/ton 27-Sep-11
28-Jun-11
% +/-
28-Sep-10
% +/-
958
1023
-6.3%
973
-1.5%
FOEX BHK Index $/ton 27-Sep-11
28-Jun-11
% +/-
28-Sep-10
% +/-
789
874
-9.8%
870
-9.3%
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FOEX Ltd. NBSK Pulp Index $/ton
Sep-11
Jun-11
% +/-
Sep-10
% +/-
170
145
17.2%
125
36.0%
Official Board Markets U.S. Southern OCC Prices ($/ton) $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Energy & Carbon Markets Fuel prices eased this quarter. The September 2011 monthly average Gulf Coast diesel price was $3.77 per gallon, down slightly from June but remaining nearly a dollar per gallon above prices a year ago. Gulf Coast #2 Diesel – Retail ($/ gallon) Sep-11
Jun-11
% +/-
Sep-10
% +/-
3.77
3.88
-2.7%
2.88
30.8%
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
W Texas Int Crude Oil ($/ barrel)
$5.50
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Monthly ($/gallon) US EIA
Aug-11
May-11
% +/-
Aug-10
% +/-
86.33
100.90
-14.4%
76.60
12.7%
Europe Brent Crude Oil ($/ barrel)
$4.00 $2.50 $1.00
Aug-11
May-11
% +/-
Aug-10
% +/-
110.22
114.99
-4.1%
77.04
43.1%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/psw 18vwall.xls Crude Oil prices declined this quarter. Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) were at $84 per barrel at the end of September, continuing the long decline from peak prices in April, and slightly below the August average of $86 per barrel. In early September, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) lowered its forecast of 2011 average crude oil prices for US markets due to weaker economic growth assumptions. Due to imports, US crude oil costs depend heavily on the European benchmark Brent Crude, which formerly trended closely with WTI, but now commands a premium. Brent averaged $110 per barrel in August with spot prices nearly unchanged in September.
$160 $120 $80 $40 $0
Crude Oil - W Texas Int Spot Price Monthly ($/ barrel) US EIA
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/PET_PRI_S PT_S1_M.xls Carbon prices declined in Europe this quarter, and carbon prices remain nearly non-existent in the US. The startup of the California Air Resources Board (CAR) carbon market has been delayed until early 2012, but exchanges in Europe and the US are preparing to trade CAR units. The European Point Carbon price for the December 2011 vintage was €10.73 per ton on September 30th (about $14.36 per ton), down more than 25 percent from June and about 33 percent from a year ago. Analysts attributed the decline to poor economic conditions in Europe and a “swelling supply”. Spot prices are available at: http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/ The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) held its thirteenth quarterly auction for carbon emissions of utilities in the Northeastern US on September 9th. The clearing price was $1.86 per CO2 allowance*, the minimum reserve price for the auction and unchanged from the previous five quarters. Further details on results are available at: http://www.rggi.org/docs/Auction_12_Release_Re port.pdf * A CO2 allowance represents a limited authorization to emit one ton of CO2.
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Equity Markets Stock markets were extremely volatile this quarter, making wide swings of short duration. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the quarter at 10,913, which is nearly where it began a year ago. The DJIA lost 1st and 2nd Quarter gains when it fell precipitously in August, in part due to battles in Congress that threatened US debt service and demonstrated lack of consensus on how to best support the US economy. Analysts suggested that worry over European sovereign debt woes also weighed on the market’s performance. Dow Jones Industrial Average 30-Sep-11
30-Jun-11
% +/-
30-Sep-10
% +/-
10,913
12,414
-12.1%
10,788
1.2%
13,500 12,000 10,500
Manufacturing activity slowed this quarter. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which aggregates activity in US manufacturing, was below 51 in July and August but increased to 51.6 in September. This indicates a nearly contracting economy in July and August, followed by somewhat stronger conditions. A PMI above 50 indicates economic expansion, and a lesser value indicates contraction.
http://www.ism.ws/index.cfm
9,000
Page 10
Manufacturing Activity
Paper & Paperboard Products reported growth in July and August with contraction in September. Wood Products reported growth in all three months of the quarter.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
2010
The S&P 500 ended September at 1,131 and the NASDAQ Composite ended at 2,415. Both were down from June and generally followed the same trend as the DJIA.
2011
2012
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Page 11
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Timberland Transactions
Openings & Closings
US timberland markets showed signs of life in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Buyers and/or sellers announced approximately 472,000 acres in transactions this quarter, of which 350,000 acres were in the South. For sales that reported prices, the weighted average price per acre is $1,440 nation-wide and $1,390 in the South. Year-todate, 2011 US announced sales have reached 1.8 million acres, which is well above the 845,000 acres in same period in 2010. This year includes the nearly one-million-acre 1st Quarter sale of GMO Renewable Resources timberland in Maine to BBC Land. The year-to-date weighted average price per acre is $1,320 nation-wide and $1,380 in the South.
Pulp mill operators made several announced changes but, in general, production was steady. Poor market conditions in residential building construction continue to mean curtailed lumber and panel production. There were two major announcements this quarter: Coastal Lumber, a large hardwood lumber producer, shut down all its remaining manufacturing facilities; and GeorgiaPacific announced plans to close three of its plywood plants.
Pulp & Paper News this quarter had a mix of new capital improvements and capacity or production changes at the South’s pulp mills. About 12 mills were affected. For more on pulp prices and production levels, see “Pulp and Paper Indicators” on page 8.
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Wood Products: Sawmills Most of the announcements this quarter affected hardwood sawmill production. The biggest story was the shut down of Coastal Lumber, although most of its mills are in West Virginia. Softwood sawmills remain curtailed, and some cut back even further. Some reduced shifts and others cut back to fewer days per week. For more on lumber prices and production levels, see “Lumber and Panel Indicators” on page 4.
Wood Products: OSB & Panels
surge in September according to both Crows and Random Lengths due to buyer anticipation of tighter supply later in the year.
Other Openings & Closings There were several smaller scale new proposals this quarter. Two involved furniture manufacturers opening solid wood manufacturing facilities in North Carolina. One announced expansion of a chop-stick manufacturer in Georgia and a kiln drying company in North Carolina announced it would expand production.
The big story this quarter was Georgia-Pacific’s decision to limit plywood and OSB production until market conditions improve. The announced shutdowns of G-P plywood mills brought a price
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Biofuel & Bio-energy
Restructuring
Emerging Biotech could increase use of timber resources by biotechnology firms. Companies claim potential in using trees to make a wide range of products, from fuels to plastics. One example is Lonza, based in Switzerland, with a plant in Cohasset MN that produces a natural chemical called arabinogalactan, often called LAG, from tamarak wood chips. Another in Mississippi, HCL CleanTech, which TMS has listed under “biorefineries”, is based in Israel (and formerly NC) and plans to build four plants to turn wood chips into cellulosic sugars that can be used in pet foods, cosmetics, lubricants and other products from pine.
The major story this quarter was the planned merger of International Paper and Temple-Inland. The combination has been approved by the Boards of both companies, and companies expect the deal to close in the 1st Quarter of 2012.
Bio-Energy Projects in the South rd
Out of seventeen project updates in the 3 Quarter, nine were new: two new pellet mills, three new cogeneration projects and four new liquid fuel/bio-chemical plants. Three cogeneration projects are at existing forest products facilities: two pulp mills and one sawmill.
Page 16
Other stories included the following: Abitibi-Bowater sold of its idle Perdue Hill, Alabama, newsprint mill to MLR Ventures LLC, reportedly controlled by developer Tim Ralston of Portland OR. Coastal Lumber of Charlottesville VA announced it was going out of business in mid-August and shut down all its mills and offices. The St. Joe Company announced a stockholder agreement that will allow Fairholme, currently the company’s largest shareholder at 29 percent, to acquire up to 50 percent of St. Joe’s outstanding common stock. Weyerhaeuser announced that its “iLevel by Weyerhaeuser” business will again be known as simply “Weyerhaeuser”.
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Weather, Etc. General Weather: Hurricane Irene hit the North Carolina coast in late August and Tropical Storm Lee hit the Louisiana coast in early September, spreading swaths of drought relief in the South. Texas experienced near record heat and drought in July and August. September brought some showers throughout the South and cooler temperatures. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/ Drought: Exceptionally deep drought remains in East Texas and extremely severe drought affects some areas of Arkansas and Louisiana along with most of Georgia and South Carolina.
Southern Pine Bark Beetle: Drought conditions have been blamed for spots of southern pine beetles in various states, including northern Georgia, but infestation levels are low. State foresters commend landowners for beetle management practices such as thinning and remind them of the availability of cost-share funds to remove damaged trees. Forecast: Normal precipitation is predicted for most of the South in October, with some rainfall expected in northeast Texas and western Arkansas. However, below-normal precipitation is predicted for most of the South for the remainder of 2011. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html Fire: Forest fires continued to damage timber in the South this quarter, most notably in eastern Texas. The number of fires and acres burned in the South year-to-date continue to be well above the ten-year average. Elevated temperatures and low levels of precipitation are expected to continue the increased fire hazard across Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and most of Mississippi in October. Elevated fire hazard could continue all along the Gulf Coast through January 2012.
Page
Arborgen Supertree Seedlings
15
Cellfor Elite Seedlings
11
DANA Timberland Investment Review, 2011
12
Davis-Garvin Insurance Agency
5
F&W Forestry
9
Forest Landowners Association
14
Fountains Forestry
10
International Forest Company Seedlings
14
Larson & McGowin
16
Southeast Wood Producers Association
10
Timber Mart-South US Timberland Markets
17
UGA Warnell School Golf Tournament 2011
13
Weyerhaeuser Seedlings
7
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/predictive.htm
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Timber Mart-South Market News Quarterly Abridged Version
The Journal of Southern Timber Market News A Quarterly Report of the Market Conditions for Timber Products of the US South Copyright © 2011 by Timber Mart-South, Inc.
Tom Harris, Publisher (706)542-2832 (706)542-4756 Jacek Siry, Research Editor Sara Baldwin, Robert Simmons & Jonathan Smith, Editors Staff: Russell McCarty, Harrison Hood, Stephen Smith, Caleb Warnock and Justin Wright Mailing address: Timber Mart-South, 1860 Barnett Shoals Road, PMB 103-598, Athens, GA 30605. Phone: (706)542-4756 • Fax: (706)542-1670 • E-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.TimberMart-South.com Copyright © 2011:
This publication is copyrighted under the statutes of the United States. The compilation of facts and information herein contained are the subject of private property rights of the publisher. Reproduction or transmission, either manually or electronically, in whole or in part, without express permission of the owner or other unauthorized use, is not permitted. Publisher provides the information herein as a convenience to its readers. Publisher does not represent or endorse the truth, accuracy, reliability or completeness of any of the information contained in this publication. PUBLISHER PROVIDES THE INFORMATION IN THIS PUBLICATION ON AN ‘AS IS’ AND ‘AS AVAILABLE’ BASIS, WITH NO WARRANTIES WHATSOEVER. THOSE WHO USE PRICES PUBLISHED HERIN FOR A SPECIFIC PURPOSE, SALE OR CONTRACT DO SO AT THEIR OWN RISK. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE WILL PUBLISHER HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE WHATEVER CAUSED BY ANY READER’S RELIANCE ON INFORMATION OBTAINED THROUGH THIS NEWSLETTER.
ISSN 1945-4082A The University of Georgia Warnell School of Forestry & Natural Resources is under contract with the Frank W. Norris Foundation to compile and publish the TMS Market News.
Table of Contents of the Abridged Version Prices & Market Conditions ....................................................................................................3 Market Indicators ....................................................................................................................4 Lumber & Panel Indicators, US Building Construction, Pulp & Paper Indicators, Energy & Carbon Markets, Equity Markets, Manufacturing Activity Timberland Transactions .......................................................................................................12 Openings & Closings .............................................................................................................12 Biofuel & Bio-Energy.............................................................................................................16 Restructuring .........................................................................................................................16 Weather Etc...........................................................................................................................18
For a the full issue, please contact us or order http://www.tmart-south.com/tmart/subscrib.htm Please see our advertisers’ section; see a list on page 18.
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Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Timber Mart-South Market News Quarterly 3 nd Quarter 2011 – Vol. 16 No. 3-A
Prices & Market Conditions
quarterly averages $50 Sawtimber
$40 $/ton
South-wide timber markets weakened further in the 3rd Quarter. Stumpage prices for four out of the five major timber products moved lower, and all five prices were down from the same period in 2010. Dry weather over most of the South this quarter ensured ample supply, but demand remained depressed.
South-wide Pine Stumpage Prices
$30
Chip-n-saw
$20 Pulpwood
$10 $0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tim ber Mart-South
South-wide Average Stumpage Prices $/ton
Pine Sawtimber
year ago
3Q 11
2Q 11 up/(dn) 3Q 10 up/(dn)
$22.59
$23.80
($1.21)
quarterly averages
$28.15 ($5.56)
Note: for a table of the five major products, please see our full News Quarterly. Order or subscribe at http://www.tmart-south.com/tmart/subscrib.htm Pine Stumpage Prices All three south-wide average pine stumpage prices were lower this quarter, although only pine sawtimber declined more than one dollar per ton. Year-over-year pine sawtimber is down more than $5 per ton, while chip-n-saw is down about $2 per ton. Pine pulpwood held relatively steady this quarter and maintained a premium of about $1.33 per ton over hardwood pulpwood.
Page 3
South-wide Hardwood Stumpage Prices $30 $25 $20 $/ton
one quarter
$15
Mixed Hardwood Sawtimber
$10 $5
Pulpwood
$0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tim ber Mart-South
Hardwood Stumpage Prices The south-wide average mixed hardwood stumpage price eased upward for the second straight quarter, bucking the general downward trend of the other timber products. Mixed hardwood sawtimber averaged nearly the same as pine sawtimber for the first time this quarter. Hardwood pulpwood prices declined slightly for the quarter, and the average remains about one dollar per ton below the same period in 2010.
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Market Indicators Concerns that the stalling economy may descend into recession were somewhat relieved at the end of the quarter by reports that US manufacturing activity increased in September. The European economy has weakened, and its debt crisis threatens to impact the US. Meanwhile, the US Congress and Administration continue to spar over US debt and budgetary constraints. Natural disasters this quarter included deep drought in the US West, Hurricane Irene that ravaged the US Atlantic Coast, and an unusual earthquake that centered in rural Virginia, not far from Washington DC. Lumber and wood products markets were fairly stable this quarter, although at low levels, while paper and paperboard markets eased downwards.
Lumber & Panel Indicators The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite (FLC) went sideways and ended September at $265 per thousand board feet (mbf); the FLC was flat for the quarter, and up slightly from one year ago. The Southern Pine Composite (SPC) followed the same general trend as the FLC for the quarter, ending at $245 per mbf, but was down from a year ago. Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite $/mbf 30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
265
262
1.1%
251
5.6%
Random Lengths Southern Pine Composite $/mbf
Southern pine 2x4 lumber prices followed a trend similar to the FLC, flat for the quarter and up year-over-year. However, 2x10 lumber prices were down quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The Structural Panel Composite price ended September at $301 per thousand square feet, 3/8 inch basis (msf), up quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. Random Lengths Structural Panel Composite $/msf 30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
301
281
7.1%
278
8.3%
$575 $450 $325 $200
Random Lengths Structural Panel Weekly Composite Price ($/msf)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Southern pine plywood prices increased about $30 per msf or nearly 12 percent this quarter, with analysts attributing the rise to news of three plant closures scheduled by Georgia-Pacific. Southern Oriented Strand Board (OSB) prices were flat this quarter but up $20 per msf or about 15 percent from a year ago. The Hardwood Review US Kiln Dried Hardwood Lumber Index was $1,078 per thousand board feet (mbf) at the end of the quarter, down slightly from the end of June and down $140 per mbf from the end of September of 2010. Hardwood Lumber Price Kiln dried Index $/mbf
30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
30-Sep-11
24-Jun-11
% +/-
24-Sep-10
% +/-
245
244
0.4%
252
-2.8%
1078
1111
-3.0%
1218
-11.5%
Random Lengths Framing Lumber Weekly Composite Price ($/mbf)
$480 $370 $260 $150 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Page 4
Hardwood Review Kiln-Dried Hardwood Weekly Lumber Index ($/mbf)
$1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Page 5
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
The Southern Forest Products Association (SFPA) reported that southern pine lumber shipments have increased slightly year-to-date through July compared to the same period in 2010. However, shipments remain well below levels in the same period of 2006. For more details on mill activity this quarter, see Openings & Closings on page 12.
the current rate, total starts nation-wide for 2011 will be 565,000, above 2009’s record low but below 2010. US Residential Housing Starts, 000 units ytd Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
398
412
-3.3%
1,293
-69.2%
South Residential Housing Starts, 000 units ytd Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
204
212
-4.0%
653
-68.8%
Southern Pine Lumber Shipments billion bf, ytd Jul-11
Jul-10
% +/-
Jul-06
% +/-
7885
7177
9.9%
11478
-31.3%
SFPA US South Pine Lumber Shipments (Monthly 000 mbf)
1,900 1,500 1,100 700 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
According to the latest report from the APA Engineered Wood Association, combined southern panel production increased slightly in the 2nd Quarter. OSB production was up slightly for the quarter but down from the same period in 2010. Plywood production increased slightly for the quarter and year-over-year.
2.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total US privately-owned housing starts through August 2011 were 298,000 units, about 3 percent below the same period in 2010. Slow markets continue to reflect the overhang of pending foreclosures and a generous supply of both new and existing homes still for sale. New residential construction faces a nearly seven month supply of new homes as well as nine months of existing home supply at current sales rates. http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
Southern OSB Production billion sf 2Q11
1Q11
% +/-
2Q10
% +/-
2063
2009
2.7%
2281
-9.6%
Southern Plywood Production billion sf 2Q11
1Q11
% +/-
2Q10
% +/-
1528
1462
4.5%
1450
5.4%
APA Engineered Wood Association US Southern Panel Production (Quarterly 000 msf, 3/8" basis)
3,600 OSB 2,800 2,000 Plywood 1,200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Building Construction According to the US Census, housing starts remained weak this quarter. If starts continue at Page 6
US Census Bureau US Housing Starts (Monthly SAAR Million Units)
Residential remodeling activity has increased gradually in 2011 over 2010 according to the US Census. US Improvement Expenditures (Billion $) ytd Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
78.8
74.4
5.9%
98.0
-19.6%
US Census Improvement Expenditures (Million $ monthly) $17,000 $13,000 $9,000 $5,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Expenditures for the first eight months of 2011 were $78.8 billion, up nearly 6 percent from the
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
same period in 2010. If expenditures continue at the same rate, the total for 2011 will be about $118 billion, close to 2008 levels. http://www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html The Harvard University Leading Indicator for Remodeling Activity (LIRA) estimates total 2011 improvement expenditures will be about $111 billion, down slightly from 2010.
7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2006
Freddie Mac 30-year Fixed US Mortgage Monthly Average Rates (percent)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/media/lira/ Mortgage activity declined further this quarter according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Mortgage rates also continued to decline. The September average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 4.11 percent according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (Freddie Mac). Fixed-rate mortgages averaged record lows the last week of September, with analysts attributing the drop to the Federal Reserve Bank’s plan to purchase additional mortgage-backed securities. 30-year Fixed US Mortgage Rates (percent) Sep-11
Jun-11
Δ +/-
Sep-10
Δ +/-
4.11
4.51
-0.40
4.35
-0.24
Page 7
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) continued to maintain the federal funds rate at zero to 0.25 percent again this quarter, and pledged to keep the rates at this level at least through mid-2013, saying that economic conditions are likely to warrant these exceptionally low levels. In September, the FOMC announced an even more accommodative policy of extending the average maturity of its treasury securities holdings as well as rolling over maturing treasuries. To provide support for mortgage markets, the FOMC will reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Pulp & Paper Indicators US paper and paperboard production has been decreasing gradually year-to-date through August according to the American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA). Total production was down slightly compared to the same period in 2010. Paper production was down about 3 percent, but paperboard production was nearly unchanged. For more details on mill activity this quarter, see Openings & Closings on page 12. AF&PA Paper & Paperboard Production million tons y-t-d Aug-11
Aug-10
% +/-
Aug-06
% +/-
54,617
55,389
-1.4%
61,291
-10.9%
8,600
AF&PA Paper & Paperboard Production monthly 000 tons
$1,100 $900 $700 $500 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Recovered corrugated container prices increased this quarter to levels not seen since 1995 according to Official Board Markets. Old Corrugated Container (OCC) monthly average prices in the South were $170 per ton in September, up $25 per ton from June and $45 per ton from a year ago. Analysts attributed the higher prices to lower levels of generation in the weak economy. Old Corrugated Containers - US South in $/ton
7,600 6,600 5,600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US pulp production more or less tracks paper and paperboard production. Softwood pulp prices declined this quarter. The FOEX Ltd. Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp price index ended September at $958 per ton, down about $65 per ton or 6 percent from the end of June, and down slightly from the end of September 2010. Bleached hardwood kraft pulp prices, at $789 per ton, were down about $85 per ton or almost 10 percent from the end of June. FOEX NBSK Index $/ton 27-Sep-11
28-Jun-11
% +/-
28-Sep-10
% +/-
958
1023
-6.3%
973
-1.5%
FOEX BHK Index $/ton 27-Sep-11
28-Jun-11
% +/-
28-Sep-10
% +/-
789
874
-9.8%
870
-9.3%
Page 8
FOEX Ltd. NBSK Pulp Index $/ton
Sep-11
Jun-11
% +/-
Sep-10
% +/-
170
145
17.2%
125
36.0%
Official Board Markets U.S. Southern OCC Prices ($/ton) $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Energy & Carbon Markets Fuel prices eased this quarter. The September 2011 monthly average Gulf Coast diesel price was $3.77 per gallon, down slightly from June but remaining nearly a dollar per gallon above prices a year ago. Gulf Coast #2 Diesel – Retail ($/ gallon) Sep-11
Jun-11
% +/-
Sep-10
% +/-
3.77
3.88
-2.7%
2.88
30.8%
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
W Texas Int Crude Oil ($/ barrel)
$5.50
Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Retail Prices Monthly ($/gallon) US EIA
Aug-11
May-11
% +/-
Aug-10
% +/-
86.33
100.90
-14.4%
76.60
12.7%
Europe Brent Crude Oil ($/ barrel)
$4.00 $2.50 $1.00
Aug-11
May-11
% +/-
Aug-10
% +/-
110.22
114.99
-4.1%
77.04
43.1%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/psw 18vwall.xls Crude Oil prices declined this quarter. Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) were at $84 per barrel at the end of September, continuing the long decline from peak prices in April, and slightly below the August average of $86 per barrel. In early September, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) lowered its forecast of 2011 average crude oil prices for US markets due to weaker economic growth assumptions. Due to imports, US crude oil costs depend heavily on the European benchmark Brent Crude, which formerly trended closely with WTI, but now commands a premium. Brent averaged $110 per barrel in August with spot prices nearly unchanged in September.
$160 $120 $80 $40 $0
Crude Oil - W Texas Int Spot Price Monthly ($/ barrel) US EIA
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/PET_PRI_S PT_S1_M.xls Carbon prices declined in Europe this quarter, and carbon prices remain nearly non-existent in the US. The startup of the California Air Resources Board (CAR) carbon market has been delayed until early 2012, but exchanges in Europe and the US are preparing to trade CAR units. The European Point Carbon price for the December 2011 vintage was €10.73 per ton on September 30th (about $14.36 per ton), down more than 25 percent from June and about 33 percent from a year ago. Analysts attributed the decline to poor economic conditions in Europe and a “swelling supply”. Spot prices are available at: http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/ The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) held its thirteenth quarterly auction for carbon emissions of utilities in the Northeastern US on September 9th. The clearing price was $1.86 per CO2 allowance*, the minimum reserve price for the auction and unchanged from the previous five quarters. Further details on results are available at: http://www.rggi.org/docs/Auction_12_Release_Re port.pdf * A CO2 allowance represents a limited authorization to emit one ton of CO2.
Page 9
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Equity Markets Stock markets were extremely volatile this quarter, making wide swings of short duration. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the quarter at 10,913, which is nearly where it began a year ago. The DJIA lost 1st and 2nd Quarter gains when it fell precipitously in August, in part due to battles in Congress that threatened US debt service and demonstrated lack of consensus on how to best support the US economy. Analysts suggested that worry over European sovereign debt woes also weighed on the market’s performance. Dow Jones Industrial Average 30-Sep-11
30-Jun-11
% +/-
30-Sep-10
% +/-
10,913
12,414
-12.1%
10,788
1.2%
13,500 12,000 10,500
Manufacturing activity slowed this quarter. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which aggregates activity in US manufacturing, was below 51 in July and August but increased to 51.6 in September. This indicates a nearly contracting economy in July and August, followed by somewhat stronger conditions. A PMI above 50 indicates economic expansion, and a lesser value indicates contraction.
http://www.ism.ws/index.cfm
9,000
Page 10
Manufacturing Activity
Paper & Paperboard Products reported growth in July and August with contraction in September. Wood Products reported growth in all three months of the quarter.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
2010
The S&P 500 ended September at 1,131 and the NASDAQ Composite ended at 2,415. Both were down from June and generally followed the same trend as the DJIA.
2011
2012
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Page 11
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Timberland Transactions
Openings & Closings
US timberland markets showed signs of life in the 3rd Quarter of 2011. Buyers and/or sellers announced approximately 472,000 acres in transactions this quarter, of which 350,000 acres were in the South. For sales that reported prices, the weighted average price per acre is $1,440 nation-wide and $1,390 in the South. Year-todate, 2011 US announced sales have reached 1.8 million acres, which is well above the 845,000 acres in same period in 2010. This year includes the nearly one-million-acre 1st Quarter sale of GMO Renewable Resources timberland in Maine to BBC Land. The year-to-date weighted average price per acre is $1,320 nation-wide and $1,380 in the South.
Pulp mill operators made several announced changes but, in general, production was steady. Poor market conditions in residential building construction continue to mean curtailed lumber and panel production. There were two major announcements this quarter: Coastal Lumber, a large hardwood lumber producer, shut down all its remaining manufacturing facilities; and GeorgiaPacific announced plans to close three of its plywood plants.
Pulp & Paper News this quarter had a mix of new capital improvements and capacity or production changes at the South’s pulp mills. About 12 mills were affected. For more on pulp prices and production levels, see “Pulp and Paper Indicators” on page 8.
2011 International Timberland Ownership & Investment Review Sixth Edition: 370 pages
- 1250 T-L Owner/Mgr profiles (750 in 2010)
¾ Introduction
- Table of > 190 transactions 2010-2011
¾ North America - Almost 300 owner profiles ¾ Overseas Countries - > 750 owner-fund managers profiled in 70 countries
¾ Pension Funds/ Endowments - > 200 T/L invested/interested investor funds profiled
¾ 20 Interesting Country – Regions ¾ Climate Change - Tree Based Carbon Trading ¾ Returns: Recent & Expected - 49 Country/Region Case Study examples ¾ Conclusions ¾ Appendix - >500 timberland transactions 1996-2009 STOP PRESS Chapter Contact: [email protected] Or go to: www.dana.co.nz Page 12
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Page 13
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Wood Products: Sawmills Most of the announcements this quarter affected hardwood sawmill production. The biggest story was the shut down of Coastal Lumber, although most of its mills are in West Virginia. Softwood sawmills remain curtailed, and some cut back even further. Some reduced shifts and others cut back to fewer days per week. For more on lumber prices and production levels, see “Lumber and Panel Indicators” on page 4.
Wood Products: OSB & Panels
surge in September according to both Crows and Random Lengths due to buyer anticipation of tighter supply later in the year.
Other Openings & Closings There were several smaller scale new proposals this quarter. Two involved furniture manufacturers opening solid wood manufacturing facilities in North Carolina. One announced expansion of a chop-stick manufacturer in Georgia and a kiln drying company in North Carolina announced it would expand production.
The big story this quarter was Georgia-Pacific’s decision to limit plywood and OSB production until market conditions improve. The announced shutdowns of G-P plywood mills brought a price
Page 14
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Page 15
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Biofuel & Bio-energy
Restructuring
Emerging Biotech could increase use of timber resources by biotechnology firms. Companies claim potential in using trees to make a wide range of products, from fuels to plastics. One example is Lonza, based in Switzerland, with a plant in Cohasset MN that produces a natural chemical called arabinogalactan, often called LAG, from tamarak wood chips. Another in Mississippi, HCL CleanTech, which TMS has listed under “biorefineries”, is based in Israel (and formerly NC) and plans to build four plants to turn wood chips into cellulosic sugars that can be used in pet foods, cosmetics, lubricants and other products from pine.
The major story this quarter was the planned merger of International Paper and Temple-Inland. The combination has been approved by the Boards of both companies, and companies expect the deal to close in the 1st Quarter of 2012.
Bio-Energy Projects in the South rd
Out of seventeen project updates in the 3 Quarter, nine were new: two new pellet mills, three new cogeneration projects and four new liquid fuel/bio-chemical plants. Three cogeneration projects are at existing forest products facilities: two pulp mills and one sawmill.
Page 16
Other stories included the following: Abitibi-Bowater sold of its idle Perdue Hill, Alabama, newsprint mill to MLR Ventures LLC, reportedly controlled by developer Tim Ralston of Portland OR. Coastal Lumber of Charlottesville VA announced it was going out of business in mid-August and shut down all its mills and offices. The St. Joe Company announced a stockholder agreement that will allow Fairholme, currently the company’s largest shareholder at 29 percent, to acquire up to 50 percent of St. Joe’s outstanding common stock. Weyerhaeuser announced that its “iLevel by Weyerhaeuser” business will again be known as simply “Weyerhaeuser”.
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
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Page 17
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
Weather, Etc. General Weather: Hurricane Irene hit the North Carolina coast in late August and Tropical Storm Lee hit the Louisiana coast in early September, spreading swaths of drought relief in the South. Texas experienced near record heat and drought in July and August. September brought some showers throughout the South and cooler temperatures. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/ Drought: Exceptionally deep drought remains in East Texas and extremely severe drought affects some areas of Arkansas and Louisiana along with most of Georgia and South Carolina.
Southern Pine Bark Beetle: Drought conditions have been blamed for spots of southern pine beetles in various states, including northern Georgia, but infestation levels are low. State foresters commend landowners for beetle management practices such as thinning and remind them of the availability of cost-share funds to remove damaged trees. Forecast: Normal precipitation is predicted for most of the South in October, with some rainfall expected in northeast Texas and western Arkansas. However, below-normal precipitation is predicted for most of the South for the remainder of 2011. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
List of Advertisers
http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html Fire: Forest fires continued to damage timber in the South this quarter, most notably in eastern Texas. The number of fires and acres burned in the South year-to-date continue to be well above the ten-year average. Elevated temperatures and low levels of precipitation are expected to continue the increased fire hazard across Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and most of Mississippi in October. Elevated fire hazard could continue all along the Gulf Coast through January 2012.
Page
Arborgen Supertree Seedlings
15
Cellfor Elite Seedlings
11
DANA Timberland Investment Review, 2011
12
Davis-Garvin Insurance Agency
5
F&W Forestry
9
Forest Landowners Association
14
Fountains Forestry
10
International Forest Company Seedlings
14
Larson & McGowin
16
Southeast Wood Producers Association
10
Timber Mart-South US Timberland Markets
17
UGA Warnell School Golf Tournament 2011
13
Weyerhaeuser Seedlings
7
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/predictive.htm
Page 18
Timber Mart-South ~Abridged Market News Quarterly
3rd Quarter 2011
