TIMELY INFORMATION

Report 1 Downloads 169 Views
AG ECONOMIC SERIES

TIMELY INFORMATION Agriculture & Natural Resources DAERS 2012-3

April 2012 Summer Stockers 2012: Will They Work? Dr. Walt Prevatt, Auburn University

Record high feeder calf prices are causing mixed emotions among cattle farmers. The higher feeder calf prices are reason for celebration among cow-calf farmers, while stocker cattle farmers are viewing them with a jaundiced eye as they consider buying the light-weight feeder calves for a summer stocker program. Current feeder calf prices are about $30 to $35 per hundredweight higher compared with spring of last year. These significantly higher feeder calf prices are causing summer stocker operators to exercise extreme caution as they evaluate their breakeven prices and potential net returns for next fall. Fortunately the feeder cattle futures prices traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are also among some of the highest feeder prices stocker cattle farmers have observed (Figure 1). These higher feeder prices offer some opportunity for those cattle farmers who are lower-cost producers and/or can get stocker calves bought at competitive prices to make a reasonable profit. Additionally, current cattle outlook information suggests that the feeder prices next fall could improve with future beef demand and supply shifts. Figure 1. Feeder Cattle Futures Prices, 2012-2013 (4/30/12). $160.00 $158.00

$157.50

$157.65

Nov 2012

Jan 2013

$158.00 $157.00

$156.15 $156.00 $154.87

$ $154.00 / C $152.00 w t $150.00 .

$153.72

$149.82

$148.00 $146.00 $144.00

1-May

Aug 2012

Sep 2012

Oct 2012

1

Mar 2013

Apr 2013

Let’s take a look at what the breakeven feeder cattle prices would be next fall given the higher prices of stocker calves today. Let’s assume we buy 450-pound stocker steer calves and graze/supplement them for 150 days (say May 1 – October 30 or thereabouts). The types of calves we buy usually attain an average daily gain of 1.75 pounds per head per day and incur a death loss of 2 percent. Attaining a 1.75 ADG for most folks will require some supplemental feed while on summer grass. Our summer grass is usually declining in quality and quantity by late summer. We sell the feeder cattle freight-on-board (FOB) in truckload units with a two percent pencil shrink. Our cost per pound of gain in the recent past has ranged from 65 cents to 85 cents per pound of gain. Current southeast local auction barn prices for a 450-pound stocker steer calf, medium and large frame, muscle score #1 and #2, will range between $165 and $185 per hundredweight depending on availability. At $175 per hundredweight for a 450-pound calf, the total price amounts to $788 per head. Obviously with prices this high, the buyer wants to be extra confident about buying calves that are going to perform well without sickness and death loss. Given the current stocker steer market price information and the production system described above, we can now estimate the feeder cattle breakeven prices for various scenarios. Table 1 describes the breakeven feeder calf market price and estimated net returns for October 2012. Let’s look at Scenario 1, which begins with 450-pound stocker calves valued at $165 per hundredweight. These stocker calves are assumed to achieve an average daily gain of 1.75 pounds per head per day over 150 days (May 1- October 30). If we assume a cost of gain of 65 cents per pound, the breakeven feeder steer price next fall is $133.44 per hundredweight. Alternatively, if we assume the stocker purchase prices of $175 and $185 per hundredweight, the breakeven feeder steer prices would be $140.02 and $146.59 per hundredweight, respectively. Intuitively, as you increase the stocker purchase price, you increase the breakeven price of the feeder steer. Thus, each $10 per hundredweight increase in stocker purchase price increases the breakeven price by about $6.58 per hundredweight.

2

Table 1. Breakeven feeder cattle prices and estimated net returns based on various stocker purchase prices and costs per pound of gain, 2012. Item Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Stocker purchase price ($/Cwt)

$165

$175

$185

$165

$175

$185

$165

$175

$185

450

450

450

450

450

450

450

450

450

$743

$788

$833

$743

$788

$833

$743

$788

$833

Days Stockered (Day)

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

150

Average Daily Gain (Lbs/Day)

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

1.75

Cost Per Pound of Gain ($/Lb)1

$0.65

$0.65

$0.65

$0.75

$0.75

$0.75

$0.85

$0.85

$0.85

Death Loss (%)

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

Weight Gained (Lbs/Hd)

262.5

262.5

262.5

262.5

262.5

262.5

262.5

262.5

262.5

Shrink (%)

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

698

698

698

698

698

698

698

698

698

72

72

72

72

72

72

72

72

72

$171

$171

$171

$197

$197

$197

$223

$223

$223

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$932

$978

$1,024

$959

$1,004

$1,050

$985

$1,031

$1,077

Breakeven Price ($/Cwt)3

$133.44

$140.02

$146.59

$137.28

$143.85

$150.43

$141.11

$147.69

$154.27

Expected Cash Price ($/Cwt)4

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

$148.00

Est. Net Returns ($/Cwt)5

$14.56

$7.98

$1.41

$10.72

$4.15

($2.43)

$6.89

$0.31

($6.27)

Est. Net Returns ($/Hd)5

$101.65

$55.73

$9.81

$74.86

$28.95

($16.97)

$48.08

$2.16

($43.76)

$7,279

$3,991

$703

$5,361

$2,073

($1,215)

$3,443

$155

($3,133)

Stocker In-Weight (Lbs/Hd) Stocker Cost ($/Hd)

Out-Weight (Lbs/Hd Shrunk) Head Per Truckload Total Cost of Gain ($/Hd)2 Desired Profit ($/Hd) Total Cost ($/Hd)3

Est. Net Returns ($/Truckload)5

1

Cost per pound of gain is based on total cost of gain divided by total gain. Do not include the cost of stocker cattle in the total cost of gain. Does not include shrink and death loss. 3 Includes shrink and death loss. 4 The expected cash price equals the October Feeder Cattle Futures Contract price of $156.00/cwt. and a -$8.00/cwt. October Basis. 5 Estimated net returns is expected cash price minus breakeven price. 2

In scenario 2, if we now assume the cost per pound of gain is 75 cents per pound and the stocker purchase price is either $165, $175, or $185 per hundredweight, the resulting breakeven feeder prices would be $137.28, $143.85, and $150.43 per hundredweight, respectively. Furthermore, in scenario 3 if we assume the cost per pound of gain is 85 cents per pound and the stocker purchase price is either $165, $175, or $185 per hundredweight, the resulting breakeven feeder prices would be $141.11, $147.69, and $154.27 per hundredweight, respectively. In addition, note that an increase in the cost per pound of gain of 10 cents per pound ($10/cwt.) increases the breakeven steer price by about $3.84 per hundredweight. 3

The sensitive variables analyzed in Table 1 were the stocker purchase price and the cost per pound of gain. Other variables such as average daily gain, death loss, interest rates, supplemental feed, etc., all influence the profitability of the stocker enterprise. These additional variables, especially average daily gain, warrant further evaluation to determine their potential impact on the breakeven price and estimated net return. The breakeven price and estimated net returns spreadsheet used in this analysis is available upon request and/or may be found at http://www.ag.auburn.edu/agec//pubs/budgets/livestock0909.php. After determining the breakeven steer price, one needs to decide if this is an acceptable breakeven price. You should ask yourself, “is the local cash price next fall going to be better than the breakeven price?” Or is there an opportunity to protect this price? Common examples of price protection include forward contracts, futures hedging, futures options, and/or livestock revenue insurance. The use of these marketing instruments, provided the market is offering a price high enough to cover the breakeven price/price objective, will allow the stocker operator to reduce his risk and ensure that a profit is made. In an effort to estimate the potential net returns from summer stockers let’s assume we implement a “Short October Feeder Cattle Futures Hedge” which means we sell an October feeder cattle futures contract at $156/cwt. today (5/1/12). This says we plan to sell the feeder cattle in the cash market before the end of the October feeder cattle futures contract. Let’s also assume the October feeder cattle basis for 700-pound feeder steers (medium-large frame and muscle score #1 and #2) at Letohatchee, AL is -$8.00/cwt. in October. Given this market information we can calculate the local “expected cash price” in October by adding the October feeder cattle futures price of $156.00/cwt. and the expected local basis of -$8.00/cwt. This information give us an “expected cash price” of $148.00/cwt. ($156.00 + (-$8.00)) for next October at Letohatchee, AL. The “expected cash price” minus the “breakeven price” provides the “estimated net returns” for this stocker enterprise based on the above production and market information. The estimated net returns in the table are described in units of $/cwt., $/hd., and $/truckload. If you assume a cost of gain of $0.65 per pound of gain and a stocker purchase price of $165/cwt., the estimated net return was $14.56/cwt., or $101.65/hd., or $7,279 per truckload. The estimated net return decreases by $6.58/cwt. or $45.92/hd. or $3,288/truckload for each $10/cwt. increase in stocker purchase price. Additionally, the estimated net return decreases by $3.84/cwt. or $26.79/hd. or $1,918/truckload for each increase in the cost per pound of gain of 10 cents per pound ($10/cwt.). Therefore, controlling cost of production and buying stocker calves at competitive prices significantly enhances the profitability of summer stockers. Lastly, taking time to estimate your breakeven feeder cattle prices and potential net returns will help you manage your cost and identify marketing opportunities. The time spent for this evaluation will not cost much, but it has the potential to generate significant profits.

4

Summer Stockers Example, Letohatchee, AL, May 1, 2012. 150 360 520 450 $1.7500 20

Days of Stocker Program Grass Acres Head of Feeder Calves Average Weight of Feeders, Lbs. 650 Lbs./Ac Average Price of Feeders, $/Lb. Head of Death Loss, chronics, cut backs, etc. 3.85% 500 Head Sold 1.4 Stocking Rate, Hd./Ac 700 Average weight sold, shrunk 1.5 ADG 350,000 Pounds Sold 972 Lbs/Ac 3,500 Cwt. Sold 7.00 Truckloads Sold 232 Pounds Gain/Head Sold

Table 2. Estimated feeder breakeven price and price objective, Summer stockers, 2012. Item 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Feeder Calves Trucking Land Rent Seed Chemicals Fertilizer Feed Mineral & Salt Vet. & Med. Fence Maintenance Fuel Supplies Utilities Misc. Expenses Marketing Expenses Machinery Depreciation Hired Labor Family Living Withdrawal Interest Equity Capital Growth Capital Roth IRA (retirement)

Total $ $409,500 $2,600 $0 $6,500 $1,500 $12,500 $12,500 $1,500 $6,500 $1,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,200 $750 $5,500 $7,500 $14,000 $30,000 $12,285 $18,000 $10,000 $6,000

Stocker Portion

Total Allocated $

100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 100% 50% 50% 50%

$/Head*

$/Cwt.*

$/Acre*

$409,500 $2,600 $0 $6,500 $1,500 $12,500 $12,500 $750 $6,500 $1,000 $2,000 $500 $600 $750 $5,500 $3,750 $7,000 $15,000 $12,285 $9,000 $5,000 $3,000

$819.00 $5.20 $0.00 $13.00 $3.00 $25.00 $25.00 $1.50 $13.00 $2.00 $4.00 $1.00 $1.20 $1.50 $11.00 $7.50 $14.00 $30.00 $24.57 $18.00 $10.00 $6.00

$117.00 $0.74 $0.00 $1.86 $0.43 $3.57 $3.57 $0.21 $1.86 $0.29 $0.57 $0.14 $0.17 $0.21 $1.57 $1.07 $2.00 $4.29 $3.51 $2.57 $1.43 $0.86

$1,137.50 $7.22 $0.00 $18.06 $4.17 $34.72 $34.72 $2.08 $18.06 $2.78 $5.56 $1.39 $1.67 $2.08 $15.28 $10.42 $19.44 $41.67 $34.13 $25.00 $13.89 $8.33

Breakeven Price (rows 1-19)

$500,735

$1,001.47

$143.07

$1,390.93

Price Objective (rows 1-22)

$517,735

$1,035.47 $1,035.47

$147.92 $147.92

$1,438.15 $1,438.15 Check

*Adjusted for death loss, chronics, and cut backs

5