Title Slide (Title Here)
Automakers Braving to Launch Electric Vehicles to Skeptic U.S. Consumers - Who will be the Early Adopters, and will their Needs and Expectations be Met? Veerender Kaul, Research Director Automotive & Transportation, North America Michael Coury, Vice President Customer Research, North America February 09, 2010
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Agenda
Scope and Methodology
Electric Vehicle Awareness and Purchase Interest
Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Profile
Electric Vehicle Type and Feature Preferences
Operating Costs and ROI Expectations
EV Demand and Adoption Segments
Telematics and LBS for EVs
Conclusion 2
Scope and Methodology
3
Research Objectives: Consumer Wants, Needs and Aspirations For Electric Vehicles Consumer Segmentation and Profile
• • • •
Consumer segmentation based on attitudes and beliefs relative to transportation Advanced technology vehicle awareness EV purchase motivations of potential buyers EV purchase likelihood of the consumer segments and profile of potential EV buyer
Vehicle Usage and Fit with EV
• • • •
Purpose of travel during weekdays and weekend Distance and frequency of travel during weekdays and weekend Parking location at work and at home Consumer segments based on vehicle usage and driving
Vehicle Attribute and Feature Preferences
Business Model and Service Package Preferences
Telematics and LBS Features and Service Preferences
• Importance of key vehicle attributes in vehicle purchase decision • EV type preferences – BET or PHEV • Optimal vehicle configuration, feature/function, and performance preferences relative to price points • Fuel cost savings expectations • Expected number of years in which to recover vehicle price premium • Battery ownership versus leasing preferences
• Importance of having charging status and charging POI information • Importance of having Green and dynamic navigation functionality • Importance of programming and managing battery charging
4
Sample of ~1,770 Consumers Distributed Across Key Demographic Attributes, Use of BYO and ACBC for Trade-Off Analysis Vehicle Ownership Segmentation
Gender Segmentation
12% 24% 6%
Small Car
Male
Med. & Large Car Female 44%
Specialty Car
6%
Luxury Car CUV/SUV 12%
56%
Luxury CUV/SUV 18%
Pickup Truck Minivan
17%
6%
Age Segmentation 9%
Household Income
Regions
6% 66 or older 16%
9% 25%
27%
Northeast
25%
$30,000 or less
56 to 65 years 22%
$30,001-$60,000 27%
Midwest
46 to 55 years 36 to 45 years
South
$60,001-$100,000
West
More than $100,000
21% 26 to 35 years 18 to 25 years 26%
26%
22%
39%
5
Awareness and Purchase Interest
6
Similar to Awareness Results, Unaided Future Purchase Intentions Toward Alternative Fuel Vehicles is Highest for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Yet, roughly one-third of Americans are unsure or undecided regarding future purchase intentions of any alternative fuel vehicles.
S13. How likely is it that you would consider the following types of vehicles for your next vehicle purchase?
9%
11%
8%
9%
16%
19%
10%
21% 16%
21%
24%
21%
20%
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle
37%
9% Hybrid Electric Vehicle
15%
15%
12%
Fuel Cell Vehicle
Bio-fuel Vehicle
Flexible Fuel Vehicle
Likely Unsure or Undecided Not Likely
26%
26%
18%
18%
CNG Vehicle
LPG Vehicle
17%
9%
Battery Electric Vehicle
Very Likely
38%
21%
15%
13%
38%
28%
16%
13%
37% 40%
33%
6%
23%
33% 35%
6%
Not at all Likely
Base: Total Sample N=1769
7
Nearly Half of Surveyed Americans Show Interest in Purchasing an Electric Vehicle (Aided)
Q21. How interested would you be in purchasing an electric vehicle?
Top-Two Box (Very Interested/ Interested): 12%
48% 14%
47% 9%
12%
38%
30%
48% 36%
34%
42%
55% 13%
42%
Very Interested Interested Unsure or Undecided Uninterested
33%
34%
30%
36% 30%
10% 9% Total Sample /
13%
11%
7%
9%
11%
8%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
12%
Not at all Interested
7%
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442
8
Electric Vehicle Benefits and Restraints Indices Comparison of Value Mean Index Electric Vehicle Benefits Scores for Cost Savings, Eco-friendly, and Image
Cost Savings Index : Reduced fuel and repair/maintenance costs
69
Cost Savings
Eco-friendly Index : Reduced emissions, reduced engine noise, and reduced foreign oil dependence
Image Index includes:
77
Eco-friendly
69
Image
Green and tech savvy/trendy image 0
20
40
60
80
Comparison of Value Mean Index Electric Vehicle Restraints Scores for Battery, Costs, and Reliability
Battery Concerns Index : Battery monitoring/maintaining, charge time, and recycling
Battery Concerns
69
High Costs
70
100
High Costs Index includes: Price too high, low resale value, and no DIYer repairs
Range Anxiety/Performance Index: Limited mobility and concerns about being stranded, Limited overall performance, lower reliability /durability, Base: Total Sample N=1,769
Range Anxiety/ Performance
73
0
20
40
60
80
100
9
Vehicle Usage and Parking Profile
10
Distances Traveled on Weekdays are Shorter than Distances Traveled During Weekends
Q6. What is the maximum and minimum number of total miles you are likely to travel?
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mean Scores 98.3
100 89.2 90
88.8 83.8
87.3
80 70
61.4
60.9
61.0
62.8
60.7
60 50 40 25.9
30
25.6
25.5
28.2
24.2
26.3
27.4
26.0
26.9
24.6
20 10 0 Weekday: Means of Minimim Miles Weekday: Means of Maximum Miles Weekend: Means of Minimum Miles Weekend: Means of Maximum Miles Traveled Traveled Traveled Traveled
Weekdays /
Weekends
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 11
Overall, More Shorter Distance Trips Occur on Weekdays, While Slightly More Long Distance Trips Occur on Weekends
Q4. Please enter the number of times you travel long-distance per month during the week and weekend.
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mean Scores 4.50
4.1
4.00
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.50
3.2
3.00
2.8
2.7 2.4
2.50
2.5 2.1
2.00
1.7 1.5
1.50
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.4 1.2
1.1 0.8
1.00 0.50 0.00 Weekday: 41 to 100 miles
Weekday: Over 100 miles
Weekend: 41 to 100 miles
Weekdays /
Weekend: Over 100 miles
Weekends
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 12
Key Findings: Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Patterns
Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Pattern
• Driving pattern: Average weekday driving distance is 43.5 mi, with maximum (mean) distance of 61 mi. The corresponding weekend distances are 57.5 mi (average) and 89 mi (maximum) • Average number of trips per day during weekday and weekend are 3.8 and 3.6 respectively, with trips of over 100 mi per month of 1.2 during a weekday and 1.5 during weekend. • Mean of the maximum number of people travelling in the vehicle during a weekday is 2.4 and during weekend 3.1. • Parking trends: 97% owners park at same location every night, of which 74% live in homes, 10% in apartments, and 16% in condominium or town homes. • Average parking time during weekday is 12.8 hrs. at home, 4.9 hrs. at work, and 2.7 hrs. at other places. • Average parking time during weekend is 13.9 hrs. at home and 5.8 hrs. at other places.
13
Electric Vehicle Type and Feature Preferences
14
Winning Concept from ACBC BYO Exercise – EV Considering Consumers Feature
Winning concept
Share
Vehicle size and type
Midsize car (+ $30,000)
33.9%
Vehicle acceleration
Same as current vehicle (+ $2,000)
40.2%
Battery & charging package
50% lease, $150/mo for 5 yrs (no change in price)
30.6%
Battery charging time
8 hours (no change in price)
43.3%
Travel distance on full charge
100 miles (+ $5,000)
37.7%
Heating & A/C
Yes, heating and air conditioning (+ $1,000)
95.4%
Luggage capacity
12 cubic feet (no change in price)
53.7%
Range extender engine
Yes, internal combustion range extending engine (+ $3,500)
59.5%
Maximum speed
75 mph (no change in price)
55.3%
Key takeaways… One-third want midsize car (23% want compact) US Consumers don’t want to give up acceleration
100% battery ownership also appeals to 30%
100 miles driving distance is very appealing For $1,000 heating & air conditioning are “must haves”
Price of BEV with above features (100mi range)
$38,000 +$150/mo
US drivers concerned about being stranded – strong desire for extended range ICE
Price of eREV with above features
$36,500 +$150/mo
75 mph provides highly acceptable top speed
Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856
15
Utility Scores: U.S. consumers prefer midsize car or compact SUV. The utility scores show that a midsize car with the same acceleration as current vehicle is highly appealing. Also interesting is 50% battery lease. Not very important is a four-hour charging time.
Subcompact Car (+ $20,000)
-25
Compact Car (+ $25,000)
4
Midsize Car (+ $30,000)
35
Compact SUV (+ $33,500)
24
Minivan (+ $37,500) Compact Pickup (+ $30,000)
20% reduction in acceleration from current vehicle (- $1,000)
-32
-14 1
Same acceleration as current vehicle (+ $2,000)
18
10% improvement in acceleration over current vehicle (+ $3,000)
0
20% improvement in acceleration over current vehicle (+ $4,000)
100% battery lease, $350/mo 5 yrs (- $5,000)
-18 -3 15
100% battery ownership, $5,000 cost (no change in price)
Battery & charging pkg50% Battery lease
6
-2
4 hours charging time (+ $700)
3
2 hours charging time (+ $1,000) 30 minutes charging time (+ $1,500)
Acceleration - Same acceleration as current vehicle
-5
50% battery lease, $150/mo 5 yrs (no change in price)
8 hours charging time (no change in price)
or SUV
-6
10% reduction in acceleration from current vehicle (no change in price)
100% battery lease, $550/mo 3 yrs (- $5,000)
Vehicle Size & type - Midsize car
4 hours charging time
1 -2
Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856
16
Utility Scores: Capability to 100 miles or more (with a range extender ICE) will break psychological barrier to adopting electric vehicles. Not surprisingly, desire for heating and air conditioning is very strong.
50 miles driving range (no change in price)
-31
100 miles driving range (+ $5,000)
14
150 miles driving range (+ $10,000)
No heat or A/C (no change in price)
100-150 Miles range
17
-46
Yes, heating & A/C (+ $1,000)
46
12.0 cubic feet luggage capacity (no change in price)
Heating & A/C
-4
15.0 cubic feet luggage capacity (+ $2,000)
15.0 Cubic feet capacity
4
No internal combustion engine (no change in price)
-11
Range extender
11
Yes, range extender internal combustion engine (+ $3,500)
Top speed 50 mph (- $1,000) -49 Top speed 60 mph (- $500)
-20 32
Top speed 75 mph (no change in price) 24
Top speed 90 mph (+ $2,000) Top speed 100 mph (+ $3,000)
Top speed 75 mph
or more
13
Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856
17
Extended-Range Electric Vehicles Garner the Highest Purchase Interest Conversely, battery electric vehicles are least appealing to Americans. However, roughly one-third are undecided toward the three electric vehicle options surveyed. Q22. Which of the following types of electric vehicle would you be interested in purchasing?
Not Interested at All
Extended-Range Electric Vehicles (eREVs)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
Uninterested
11%
13%
17%
Unsure or Undecided
9%
34%
11%
Very Interested
35%
34%
17%
Interested
11%
32%
32%
10%
28%
6%
Base: Total Sample N=1,769 18
Operating Costs and ROI Expectations
19
Fuel Costs Dominate Current Vehicle Operating Costs Given the average amounts spent on fuel, if electric vehicle manufacturers are able to contain battery charging costs and other operating costs – specific to electric vehicles – to around or less than current fuel costs, Americans likely will find electric vehicles more appealing. Q9. We would now like to know a little about the operating costs of your vehicle. Please estimate how much you spend on the following for the vehicle you use most regularly.
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mean Scores $1,800
$1,765 $1,695 $1,654 $1,613 $1,555
$1,500
Total annual cost $2,480; 2/3rd of which is fuel cost
$1,200 $900 $600
$319 $339 $336 $277 $328
$300
$327
$373
$308 $286 $340
$270 $180 $160 $160 $129
$0 Fuel Costs
/
Repair Costs
Maintenance Costs
Registration Costs
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 20
Nearly Half of Americans Expect an Electric Vehicle’s Operating Costs to Offset the Initial Purchase Premium within Four Years Interestingly, there are a few Americans who do not expect any operating cost offset.
Expectations Gap
Q10. If you were to buy an electric vehicle, within how many years would you expect the savings in operating costs to offset the premium you would have to pay to purchase it?
Within four years: 48%
/
8%
8%
8%
7%
9% 2% 10%
8% 1% 10%
12%
10%
2% 9%
3% 9%
7% 6% 1% 11% Never 15+ Years
25%
22% 24%
27%
28%
11-14 Years 8-10 Years 5-7 Years 3-4 Years
32%
33% 32%
27%
35%
15%
17%
14%
17%
13%
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
1-2 Years
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 21
EV Demand and Adoption Segmentation
22
Feasible Demand Based On Performance Criteria 12.6 M Vehicles Awareness Interested
25% of surveyed Americans showed interest in purchasing an electric vehicle at the start of survey (unaided), which went up to 48% at the end of survey (aided)
?
6.0 M Vehicles
BEV
Dwelling Criteria
Range Criteria
Charge Time Criteria
Size Criteria
Attached/Secure Parking –
100mi Range -
8 Hr. Charge Time -
Sub Compact Compact Car Midsize Car – Car – –
Feasible Demand = 4.2M
Feasible Demand = 2.9M
Feasible Demand 0.87M
Demand = 217K
Demand = 174K
PHEV/EREV
?
Demand = 226K
? Demand = 462K
Demand = 600K
Feasible Demand =4.2M
Feasible Demand = 4.2M
Feasible Demand = 2.3M
Demand = 577K
Attached/Secure Parking –
150mi Range -
4 Hr. Charge Time -
Sub Compact Compact Car Midsize Car – 26% Car – –
23
Profile of “Eco-Conscious Adopters” Q11. Please rate your level of agreement with the following general statements … (Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat Agree; Agree; Strongly Agree)
ECO-CONSCIOUS ADOPTERS
RELUCTANT
PRAGMATIST The environment is a concern, but drawbacks of EV out weigh environmental gains. Fear limited personal mobility and being stranded.
The environment is a concern. Interested in reduced cost of fuel and dependence on foreign oil. EV represent the future!
Reduced fuel cost and low engine noise are attractive, but the costs are an important aspect on the decision making.
Who are they…
Profile (high values)
59%
Share
Location
Suburban
59%
Age
36-45
26%
Gender
Female
51%
Segment
Small car
26%
49%
24%
68%
26%
26%
22%
19%
16%
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
66 or >
18% 12%
8%
7%
Urban Suburban Rural
Interested in Purchasing EV
22%
18%
51%
5%
Male
Fem ale
Sm all Medium Specialty SUV & Large Car
5%
Pickup Minivans
31% of the sample Base : n=1,769, Eco-conscious n=552
Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis.
24
Who is a Potential Early Adopter of Electric Vehicles? Profile of Americans Who are Very Interested in Purchasing an Electric Vehicle (Aided) Suburban 56% Urban 36% 88%
Single Family Home 65% Multi-family Dwelling 18%
12%
College Degree+ (64%)
$$$
Household Income: $80,000 + (51%)
Children in the Household
Age: 18-45
EV = Primary Vehicle 78%
25
Profile of “Pragmatist” Higher level of concern for environment but cost of EVs and practical considerations a barrier. Q11. Please rate your level of agreement with the following general statements … (Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat Agree; Agree; Strongly Agree)
ECO-CONSCIOUS ADOPTERS
RELUCTANT
PRAGMATIST The environment is a concern, but drawbacks of EV out weigh environmental gains. Fear limited personal mobility and being stranded.
EV represent the future! Innovation is the key word and even the “drawbacks” are accepted.
Reduced fuel cost and low engine noise are attractive, but the costs is an important aspect of decision making.
Who are they…
Profile (high values) Location
Suburban
56%
Age
36 to 45
25%
Gender
Female
59%
Segment
Small car
25%
Interested in Purchasing EV
29%
59%
56%
Share
41%
23%
22%
21%
25%
21%
25% 16%
10%
Urban Suburban Rural
18-25
16% 6%
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
66 or >
15%
19% 13% 7%
5%
Male
Fem ale Sm all MediumSpecialty Luxury & Large Car
SUV
Pickup Minivans
30% of the sample Base: n=1,769, Pragmatist n=535
Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis.
26
Telematics and LBS for EVs
27
Key Findings: Telematics and LBS for EVs
• A telematics system that provides state-of-charge information and charging POI information is considered important by 90% of Americans. Hence, these should be provided standard. • Key charging POI information is: location of charging stations, their availability for charging, charging rate ($/kWr) Telematics System
• Other important telematics features include, eco Driving, Battery charging history maintenance, and Green Routing
• Road side assistance service is considered important by 87% of surveyed Americans, which reflects the fear of getting stranded due to battery running out of charge or the vehicle breaking down.
28
Conclusion
Purchase Motivation and Criteria for EVs
• EV demand: 48% of consumers interested in purchasing an EV. When vehicle performance criteria is factored in, demand drops dramatically to 18% or 2.3M veh. • Key adoption drivers: environmental benefits (77% mean index), Green and Tech. Savvy image (70% index), reduced fuel cost (70% index) • Key adoption restraints: Range anxiety and performance concerns (73% mean index), high cost concerns (70% index), battery concerns (69% mean index)
Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Pattern
• Driving pattern: Average weekday driving distance is 43.5 mi and weekend distance 57.5 mi • Average number of trips per day during weekday and weekend are 3.8 and 3.6 respectively, with trips of over 100 mi per month of 1.2 during a weekday and 1.5 during weekend. • Parking trends: 97% owners park at same location everyday, of which 74% live in homes, 10% in apartments, and 16% in condominium or town homes. • Average parking time during weekday is: 12.8 hrs. at home, 4.9 hrs. at work and 2.7 hrs. at other places.
Design and Function Requirements
• 5 most important attributes: vehicle price, vehicle size and style, top speed, availability of HVAC, driving range • Must have features: acceleration comparable to current vehicle, top speed greater than 75 mph, 100mi or greater driving range, HVAC system • Unacceptable features: 20% or greater reduction in acceleration compared to current vehicle, 60 mph or lower top speed, lack of HVAC system, 50 mi or less driving range • Vehicle price: price of the “winning vehicle concept” is $38,000 for a Battery Electric Vehicle and $36,500 for an eREV. After making trade off choices, the average price drops significantly to $33,000, which indicated the acceptable price.
29
Conclusion • • • • •
• • •
2015 demand for EVs based on performance criteria ~2.3M Demand will drop further when cost criteria is applied. Hence EV will be a small niche in the near-term. Range anxiety is a serious impediment to the adoption of EVs. E-REVS and PHEVs will be overwhelmingly favored. Roadside Assistance and Telematics and LBS services are “a must have” feature for EVs. Must be provided standard. Development of a public charging infrastructure is critical - mitigates range anxiety, enable optimization of driving range, and reduce vehicle cost. Business models need to be reinvented - should maximizes revenue streams and provides value added services to reduce the cost burden on electric vehicle owners. A vehicle with a driving range of 100mi is unlikely to be seen by most Americans as their primary vehicle. A range of 150mi is more likely to merit that consideration. Vehicle manufacturers could consider offering BEV with a package of some free rental car days to position a BEV as a primary vehicle. 30
Electric Vehicles Program – Upcoming 2010 Research and Published 2009 Research
• Private and Fleet Applications • Two-Wheelers • End-user Research • EV Infrastructure • Emerging Business Models • In-vehicle Technologies
2010
US Voice-of-Customer Study – Fleet Motivations For Purchasing Electric Vehicles and Vehicle Feature-function Needs and Preferences
2010
Strategic Analysis of Electric Vehicle Infrastructure in North America
2010
Strategic Analysis of Electric Vehicle Value Chain and Business Models - Revenues and ROI for Vehicle manufacturers, Utilities, and Infrastructure Service Providers in the North American EV Market
2010
Assessment of the Global Market for Automotive Electronics for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles
2010
New Business Models for Electric Vehicle Batteries in North America
2010
Global Hybrids and Electric Vehicles – Database by Region and OEMs Q2 2010
2010
Database of OEM Partner Ecosystem for Electric Vehicle Systems and Services
2010
Strategic Dashboard of Electric Vehicle Specifications – 2 Annual Updates
2010
Strategic Dashboard of Electric Vehicle Legislations and Incentives – 2 Annual Updates
2009
US Voice-of-Customer Study – Consumer Wants, Needs and Aspirations For Electric Vehicles
2009
360 Degree Analysis Of The Global Electric Vehicles Market
2009
Strategic Analysis Of Developments In Global Electric Vehicles Infrastructure Market
2009
Global Hybrids and Electric Vehicles – Database By Region and OEMs (Q3 2009 Update)
2009
Strategic Analysis Of Selected OEMs Telematics Strategy For Electric Vehicles
2009
Strategic Analysis Of The North American Market For e-motor Bikes and e-scooters
2009
Strategic Analysis Of North American Passenger Electric Vehicle Market
2009
Global Hybrids And Electric Vehicles – Database By Region And OEMs 31
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32
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For Additional Information
Veerender Kaul Research Director Automotive & Transportation (650) 475-4525 [email protected]
Craig Hays Sales Manager Automotive & Transportation (210) 247-2460 [email protected]
Michael J. Coury, Ph.D. Vice President Customer Research (248) 953-2271 [email protected]
Johanna Haynes Corporate Communications Automotive & Transportation (210) 247-3870 [email protected]
34
Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies
Agenda
Scope and Methodology
Electric Vehicle Awareness and Purchase Interest
Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Profile
Electric Vehicle Type and Feature Preferences
Operating Costs and ROI Expectations
EV Demand and Adoption Segments
Telematics and LBS for EVs
Conclusion 2
Scope and Methodology
3
Research Objectives: Consumer Wants, Needs and Aspirations For Electric Vehicles Consumer Segmentation and Profile
• • • •
Consumer segmentation based on attitudes and beliefs relative to transportation Advanced technology vehicle awareness EV purchase motivations of potential buyers EV purchase likelihood of the consumer segments and profile of potential EV buyer
Vehicle Usage and Fit with EV
• • • •
Purpose of travel during weekdays and weekend Distance and frequency of travel during weekdays and weekend Parking location at work and at home Consumer segments based on vehicle usage and driving
Vehicle Attribute and Feature Preferences
Business Model and Service Package Preferences
Telematics and LBS Features and Service Preferences
• Importance of key vehicle attributes in vehicle purchase decision • EV type preferences – BET or PHEV • Optimal vehicle configuration, feature/function, and performance preferences relative to price points • Fuel cost savings expectations • Expected number of years in which to recover vehicle price premium • Battery ownership versus leasing preferences
• Importance of having charging status and charging POI information • Importance of having Green and dynamic navigation functionality • Importance of programming and managing battery charging
4
Sample of ~1,770 Consumers Distributed Across Key Demographic Attributes, Use of BYO and ACBC for Trade-Off Analysis Vehicle Ownership Segmentation
Gender Segmentation
12% 24% 6%
Small Car
Male
Med. & Large Car Female 44%
Specialty Car
6%
Luxury Car CUV/SUV 12%
56%
Luxury CUV/SUV 18%
Pickup Truck Minivan
17%
6%
Age Segmentation 9%
Household Income
Regions
6% 66 or older 16%
9% 25%
27%
Northeast
25%
$30,000 or less
56 to 65 years 22%
$30,001-$60,000 27%
Midwest
46 to 55 years 36 to 45 years
South
$60,001-$100,000
West
More than $100,000
21% 26 to 35 years 18 to 25 years 26%
26%
22%
39%
5
Awareness and Purchase Interest
6
Similar to Awareness Results, Unaided Future Purchase Intentions Toward Alternative Fuel Vehicles is Highest for Hybrid Electric Vehicles Yet, roughly one-third of Americans are unsure or undecided regarding future purchase intentions of any alternative fuel vehicles.
S13. How likely is it that you would consider the following types of vehicles for your next vehicle purchase?
9%
11%
8%
9%
16%
19%
10%
21% 16%
21%
24%
21%
20%
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle
37%
9% Hybrid Electric Vehicle
15%
15%
12%
Fuel Cell Vehicle
Bio-fuel Vehicle
Flexible Fuel Vehicle
Likely Unsure or Undecided Not Likely
26%
26%
18%
18%
CNG Vehicle
LPG Vehicle
17%
9%
Battery Electric Vehicle
Very Likely
38%
21%
15%
13%
38%
28%
16%
13%
37% 40%
33%
6%
23%
33% 35%
6%
Not at all Likely
Base: Total Sample N=1769
7
Nearly Half of Surveyed Americans Show Interest in Purchasing an Electric Vehicle (Aided)
Q21. How interested would you be in purchasing an electric vehicle?
Top-Two Box (Very Interested/ Interested): 12%
48% 14%
47% 9%
12%
38%
30%
48% 36%
34%
42%
55% 13%
42%
Very Interested Interested Unsure or Undecided Uninterested
33%
34%
30%
36% 30%
10% 9% Total Sample /
13%
11%
7%
9%
11%
8%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
12%
Not at all Interested
7%
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442
8
Electric Vehicle Benefits and Restraints Indices Comparison of Value Mean Index Electric Vehicle Benefits Scores for Cost Savings, Eco-friendly, and Image
Cost Savings Index : Reduced fuel and repair/maintenance costs
69
Cost Savings
Eco-friendly Index : Reduced emissions, reduced engine noise, and reduced foreign oil dependence
Image Index includes:
77
Eco-friendly
69
Image
Green and tech savvy/trendy image 0
20
40
60
80
Comparison of Value Mean Index Electric Vehicle Restraints Scores for Battery, Costs, and Reliability
Battery Concerns Index : Battery monitoring/maintaining, charge time, and recycling
Battery Concerns
69
High Costs
70
100
High Costs Index includes: Price too high, low resale value, and no DIYer repairs
Range Anxiety/Performance Index: Limited mobility and concerns about being stranded, Limited overall performance, lower reliability /durability, Base: Total Sample N=1,769
Range Anxiety/ Performance
73
0
20
40
60
80
100
9
Vehicle Usage and Parking Profile
10
Distances Traveled on Weekdays are Shorter than Distances Traveled During Weekends
Q6. What is the maximum and minimum number of total miles you are likely to travel?
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mean Scores 98.3
100 89.2 90
88.8 83.8
87.3
80 70
61.4
60.9
61.0
62.8
60.7
60 50 40 25.9
30
25.6
25.5
28.2
24.2
26.3
27.4
26.0
26.9
24.6
20 10 0 Weekday: Means of Minimim Miles Weekday: Means of Maximum Miles Weekend: Means of Minimum Miles Weekend: Means of Maximum Miles Traveled Traveled Traveled Traveled
Weekdays /
Weekends
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 11
Overall, More Shorter Distance Trips Occur on Weekdays, While Slightly More Long Distance Trips Occur on Weekends
Q4. Please enter the number of times you travel long-distance per month during the week and weekend.
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mean Scores 4.50
4.1
4.00
3.7
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.50
3.2
3.00
2.8
2.7 2.4
2.50
2.5 2.1
2.00
1.7 1.5
1.50
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.4 1.2
1.1 0.8
1.00 0.50 0.00 Weekday: 41 to 100 miles
Weekday: Over 100 miles
Weekend: 41 to 100 miles
Weekdays /
Weekend: Over 100 miles
Weekends
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 12
Key Findings: Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Patterns
Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Pattern
• Driving pattern: Average weekday driving distance is 43.5 mi, with maximum (mean) distance of 61 mi. The corresponding weekend distances are 57.5 mi (average) and 89 mi (maximum) • Average number of trips per day during weekday and weekend are 3.8 and 3.6 respectively, with trips of over 100 mi per month of 1.2 during a weekday and 1.5 during weekend. • Mean of the maximum number of people travelling in the vehicle during a weekday is 2.4 and during weekend 3.1. • Parking trends: 97% owners park at same location every night, of which 74% live in homes, 10% in apartments, and 16% in condominium or town homes. • Average parking time during weekday is 12.8 hrs. at home, 4.9 hrs. at work, and 2.7 hrs. at other places. • Average parking time during weekend is 13.9 hrs. at home and 5.8 hrs. at other places.
13
Electric Vehicle Type and Feature Preferences
14
Winning Concept from ACBC BYO Exercise – EV Considering Consumers Feature
Winning concept
Share
Vehicle size and type
Midsize car (+ $30,000)
33.9%
Vehicle acceleration
Same as current vehicle (+ $2,000)
40.2%
Battery & charging package
50% lease, $150/mo for 5 yrs (no change in price)
30.6%
Battery charging time
8 hours (no change in price)
43.3%
Travel distance on full charge
100 miles (+ $5,000)
37.7%
Heating & A/C
Yes, heating and air conditioning (+ $1,000)
95.4%
Luggage capacity
12 cubic feet (no change in price)
53.7%
Range extender engine
Yes, internal combustion range extending engine (+ $3,500)
59.5%
Maximum speed
75 mph (no change in price)
55.3%
Key takeaways… One-third want midsize car (23% want compact) US Consumers don’t want to give up acceleration
100% battery ownership also appeals to 30%
100 miles driving distance is very appealing For $1,000 heating & air conditioning are “must haves”
Price of BEV with above features (100mi range)
$38,000 +$150/mo
US drivers concerned about being stranded – strong desire for extended range ICE
Price of eREV with above features
$36,500 +$150/mo
75 mph provides highly acceptable top speed
Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856
15
Utility Scores: U.S. consumers prefer midsize car or compact SUV. The utility scores show that a midsize car with the same acceleration as current vehicle is highly appealing. Also interesting is 50% battery lease. Not very important is a four-hour charging time.
Subcompact Car (+ $20,000)
-25
Compact Car (+ $25,000)
4
Midsize Car (+ $30,000)
35
Compact SUV (+ $33,500)
24
Minivan (+ $37,500) Compact Pickup (+ $30,000)
20% reduction in acceleration from current vehicle (- $1,000)
-32
-14 1
Same acceleration as current vehicle (+ $2,000)
18
10% improvement in acceleration over current vehicle (+ $3,000)
0
20% improvement in acceleration over current vehicle (+ $4,000)
100% battery lease, $350/mo 5 yrs (- $5,000)
-18 -3 15
100% battery ownership, $5,000 cost (no change in price)
Battery & charging pkg50% Battery lease
6
-2
4 hours charging time (+ $700)
3
2 hours charging time (+ $1,000) 30 minutes charging time (+ $1,500)
Acceleration - Same acceleration as current vehicle
-5
50% battery lease, $150/mo 5 yrs (no change in price)
8 hours charging time (no change in price)
or SUV
-6
10% reduction in acceleration from current vehicle (no change in price)
100% battery lease, $550/mo 3 yrs (- $5,000)
Vehicle Size & type - Midsize car
4 hours charging time
1 -2
Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856
16
Utility Scores: Capability to 100 miles or more (with a range extender ICE) will break psychological barrier to adopting electric vehicles. Not surprisingly, desire for heating and air conditioning is very strong.
50 miles driving range (no change in price)
-31
100 miles driving range (+ $5,000)
14
150 miles driving range (+ $10,000)
No heat or A/C (no change in price)
100-150 Miles range
17
-46
Yes, heating & A/C (+ $1,000)
46
12.0 cubic feet luggage capacity (no change in price)
Heating & A/C
-4
15.0 cubic feet luggage capacity (+ $2,000)
15.0 Cubic feet capacity
4
No internal combustion engine (no change in price)
-11
Range extender
11
Yes, range extender internal combustion engine (+ $3,500)
Top speed 50 mph (- $1,000) -49 Top speed 60 mph (- $500)
-20 32
Top speed 75 mph (no change in price) 24
Top speed 90 mph (+ $2,000) Top speed 100 mph (+ $3,000)
Top speed 75 mph
or more
13
Base : Total EV Aided Considerers N=856
17
Extended-Range Electric Vehicles Garner the Highest Purchase Interest Conversely, battery electric vehicles are least appealing to Americans. However, roughly one-third are undecided toward the three electric vehicle options surveyed. Q22. Which of the following types of electric vehicle would you be interested in purchasing?
Not Interested at All
Extended-Range Electric Vehicles (eREVs)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)
Uninterested
11%
13%
17%
Unsure or Undecided
9%
34%
11%
Very Interested
35%
34%
17%
Interested
11%
32%
32%
10%
28%
6%
Base: Total Sample N=1,769 18
Operating Costs and ROI Expectations
19
Fuel Costs Dominate Current Vehicle Operating Costs Given the average amounts spent on fuel, if electric vehicle manufacturers are able to contain battery charging costs and other operating costs – specific to electric vehicles – to around or less than current fuel costs, Americans likely will find electric vehicles more appealing. Q9. We would now like to know a little about the operating costs of your vehicle. Please estimate how much you spend on the following for the vehicle you use most regularly.
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
Mean Scores $1,800
$1,765 $1,695 $1,654 $1,613 $1,555
$1,500
Total annual cost $2,480; 2/3rd of which is fuel cost
$1,200 $900 $600
$319 $339 $336 $277 $328
$300
$327
$373
$308 $286 $340
$270 $180 $160 $160 $129
$0 Fuel Costs
/
Repair Costs
Maintenance Costs
Registration Costs
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 20
Nearly Half of Americans Expect an Electric Vehicle’s Operating Costs to Offset the Initial Purchase Premium within Four Years Interestingly, there are a few Americans who do not expect any operating cost offset.
Expectations Gap
Q10. If you were to buy an electric vehicle, within how many years would you expect the savings in operating costs to offset the premium you would have to pay to purchase it?
Within four years: 48%
/
8%
8%
8%
7%
9% 2% 10%
8% 1% 10%
12%
10%
2% 9%
3% 9%
7% 6% 1% 11% Never 15+ Years
25%
22% 24%
27%
28%
11-14 Years 8-10 Years 5-7 Years 3-4 Years
32%
33% 32%
27%
35%
15%
17%
14%
17%
13%
Total Sample
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
1-2 Years
Indicates significantly higher/lower than comparison group at the 95% level.
Base: Total Sample N=1,769, Northeast N=469, Midwest N=390, South N=468, West N=442 21
EV Demand and Adoption Segmentation
22
Feasible Demand Based On Performance Criteria 12.6 M Vehicles Awareness Interested
25% of surveyed Americans showed interest in purchasing an electric vehicle at the start of survey (unaided), which went up to 48% at the end of survey (aided)
?
6.0 M Vehicles
BEV
Dwelling Criteria
Range Criteria
Charge Time Criteria
Size Criteria
Attached/Secure Parking –
100mi Range -
8 Hr. Charge Time -
Sub Compact Compact Car Midsize Car – Car – –
Feasible Demand = 4.2M
Feasible Demand = 2.9M
Feasible Demand 0.87M
Demand = 217K
Demand = 174K
PHEV/EREV
?
Demand = 226K
? Demand = 462K
Demand = 600K
Feasible Demand =4.2M
Feasible Demand = 4.2M
Feasible Demand = 2.3M
Demand = 577K
Attached/Secure Parking –
150mi Range -
4 Hr. Charge Time -
Sub Compact Compact Car Midsize Car – 26% Car – –
23
Profile of “Eco-Conscious Adopters” Q11. Please rate your level of agreement with the following general statements … (Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat Agree; Agree; Strongly Agree)
ECO-CONSCIOUS ADOPTERS
RELUCTANT
PRAGMATIST The environment is a concern, but drawbacks of EV out weigh environmental gains. Fear limited personal mobility and being stranded.
The environment is a concern. Interested in reduced cost of fuel and dependence on foreign oil. EV represent the future!
Reduced fuel cost and low engine noise are attractive, but the costs are an important aspect on the decision making.
Who are they…
Profile (high values)
59%
Share
Location
Suburban
59%
Age
36-45
26%
Gender
Female
51%
Segment
Small car
26%
49%
24%
68%
26%
26%
22%
19%
16%
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
66 or >
18% 12%
8%
7%
Urban Suburban Rural
Interested in Purchasing EV
22%
18%
51%
5%
Male
Fem ale
Sm all Medium Specialty SUV & Large Car
5%
Pickup Minivans
31% of the sample Base : n=1,769, Eco-conscious n=552
Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis.
24
Who is a Potential Early Adopter of Electric Vehicles? Profile of Americans Who are Very Interested in Purchasing an Electric Vehicle (Aided) Suburban 56% Urban 36% 88%
Single Family Home 65% Multi-family Dwelling 18%
12%
College Degree+ (64%)
$$$
Household Income: $80,000 + (51%)
Children in the Household
Age: 18-45
EV = Primary Vehicle 78%
25
Profile of “Pragmatist” Higher level of concern for environment but cost of EVs and practical considerations a barrier. Q11. Please rate your level of agreement with the following general statements … (Strongly Disagree; Disagree; Somewhat Agree; Agree; Strongly Agree)
ECO-CONSCIOUS ADOPTERS
RELUCTANT
PRAGMATIST The environment is a concern, but drawbacks of EV out weigh environmental gains. Fear limited personal mobility and being stranded.
EV represent the future! Innovation is the key word and even the “drawbacks” are accepted.
Reduced fuel cost and low engine noise are attractive, but the costs is an important aspect of decision making.
Who are they…
Profile (high values) Location
Suburban
56%
Age
36 to 45
25%
Gender
Female
59%
Segment
Small car
25%
Interested in Purchasing EV
29%
59%
56%
Share
41%
23%
22%
21%
25%
21%
25% 16%
10%
Urban Suburban Rural
18-25
16% 6%
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-65
66 or >
15%
19% 13% 7%
5%
Male
Fem ale Sm all MediumSpecialty Luxury & Large Car
SUV
Pickup Minivans
30% of the sample Base: n=1,769, Pragmatist n=535
Analyst notes: To highlight the differences between segments, each individual was classified as belonging to only one (index mean average). Same average Index were removed, has such the eliminated cases as result of previous factorial analysis.
26
Telematics and LBS for EVs
27
Key Findings: Telematics and LBS for EVs
• A telematics system that provides state-of-charge information and charging POI information is considered important by 90% of Americans. Hence, these should be provided standard. • Key charging POI information is: location of charging stations, their availability for charging, charging rate ($/kWr) Telematics System
• Other important telematics features include, eco Driving, Battery charging history maintenance, and Green Routing
• Road side assistance service is considered important by 87% of surveyed Americans, which reflects the fear of getting stranded due to battery running out of charge or the vehicle breaking down.
28
Conclusion
Purchase Motivation and Criteria for EVs
• EV demand: 48% of consumers interested in purchasing an EV. When vehicle performance criteria is factored in, demand drops dramatically to 18% or 2.3M veh. • Key adoption drivers: environmental benefits (77% mean index), Green and Tech. Savvy image (70% index), reduced fuel cost (70% index) • Key adoption restraints: Range anxiety and performance concerns (73% mean index), high cost concerns (70% index), battery concerns (69% mean index)
Current Vehicle Usage and Parking Pattern
• Driving pattern: Average weekday driving distance is 43.5 mi and weekend distance 57.5 mi • Average number of trips per day during weekday and weekend are 3.8 and 3.6 respectively, with trips of over 100 mi per month of 1.2 during a weekday and 1.5 during weekend. • Parking trends: 97% owners park at same location everyday, of which 74% live in homes, 10% in apartments, and 16% in condominium or town homes. • Average parking time during weekday is: 12.8 hrs. at home, 4.9 hrs. at work and 2.7 hrs. at other places.
Design and Function Requirements
• 5 most important attributes: vehicle price, vehicle size and style, top speed, availability of HVAC, driving range • Must have features: acceleration comparable to current vehicle, top speed greater than 75 mph, 100mi or greater driving range, HVAC system • Unacceptable features: 20% or greater reduction in acceleration compared to current vehicle, 60 mph or lower top speed, lack of HVAC system, 50 mi or less driving range • Vehicle price: price of the “winning vehicle concept” is $38,000 for a Battery Electric Vehicle and $36,500 for an eREV. After making trade off choices, the average price drops significantly to $33,000, which indicated the acceptable price.
29
Conclusion • • • • •
• • •
2015 demand for EVs based on performance criteria ~2.3M Demand will drop further when cost criteria is applied. Hence EV will be a small niche in the near-term. Range anxiety is a serious impediment to the adoption of EVs. E-REVS and PHEVs will be overwhelmingly favored. Roadside Assistance and Telematics and LBS services are “a must have” feature for EVs. Must be provided standard. Development of a public charging infrastructure is critical - mitigates range anxiety, enable optimization of driving range, and reduce vehicle cost. Business models need to be reinvented - should maximizes revenue streams and provides value added services to reduce the cost burden on electric vehicle owners. A vehicle with a driving range of 100mi is unlikely to be seen by most Americans as their primary vehicle. A range of 150mi is more likely to merit that consideration. Vehicle manufacturers could consider offering BEV with a package of some free rental car days to position a BEV as a primary vehicle. 30
Electric Vehicles Program – Upcoming 2010 Research and Published 2009 Research
• Private and Fleet Applications • Two-Wheelers • End-user Research • EV Infrastructure • Emerging Business Models • In-vehicle Technologies
2010
US Voice-of-Customer Study – Fleet Motivations For Purchasing Electric Vehicles and Vehicle Feature-function Needs and Preferences
2010
Strategic Analysis of Electric Vehicle Infrastructure in North America
2010
Strategic Analysis of Electric Vehicle Value Chain and Business Models - Revenues and ROI for Vehicle manufacturers, Utilities, and Infrastructure Service Providers in the North American EV Market
2010
Assessment of the Global Market for Automotive Electronics for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles
2010
New Business Models for Electric Vehicle Batteries in North America
2010
Global Hybrids and Electric Vehicles – Database by Region and OEMs Q2 2010
2010
Database of OEM Partner Ecosystem for Electric Vehicle Systems and Services
2010
Strategic Dashboard of Electric Vehicle Specifications – 2 Annual Updates
2010
Strategic Dashboard of Electric Vehicle Legislations and Incentives – 2 Annual Updates
2009
US Voice-of-Customer Study – Consumer Wants, Needs and Aspirations For Electric Vehicles
2009
360 Degree Analysis Of The Global Electric Vehicles Market
2009
Strategic Analysis Of Developments In Global Electric Vehicles Infrastructure Market
2009
Global Hybrids and Electric Vehicles – Database By Region and OEMs (Q3 2009 Update)
2009
Strategic Analysis Of Selected OEMs Telematics Strategy For Electric Vehicles
2009
Strategic Analysis Of The North American Market For e-motor Bikes and e-scooters
2009
Strategic Analysis Of North American Passenger Electric Vehicle Market
2009
Global Hybrids And Electric Vehicles – Database By Region And OEMs 31
Next Steps
Register for the next Chairman’s Series on Growth:
Marketing Excellence and the Art of Winning Customers (March 2, 2010) (http://www.frost.com/growth)
Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
32
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33
For Additional Information
Veerender Kaul Research Director Automotive & Transportation (650) 475-4525 [email protected]
Craig Hays Sales Manager Automotive & Transportation (210) 247-2460 [email protected]
Michael J. Coury, Ph.D. Vice President Customer Research (248) 953-2271 [email protected]
Johanna Haynes Corporate Communications Automotive & Transportation (210) 247-3870 [email protected]
34
