trade openness indicators

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CNI Indicators ISSN 2317-708X • Year 6 • Number 1

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TRADE OPENNESS INDICATORS Export volumes respond more strongly to Brazilian currency depreciation The trade openness indicators show that exports and imports reacted significantly to the depreciation of the Brazilian currency (real) and the economic downturn in 2015 – a trend that continued in the first half of 2016. In 2015, the export to output ratio for manufacturing (at constant prices) reversed the downward trend that had been observed since 2006. The indicator increased from 12.0% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2015, reflecting a rise in export volumes in response to the depreciation of the real, intensified by a decline in domestic production. In 2016, the export to

Export to output ratio for manufacturing In % - at current prices and at constant prices

25 21.6 20

15

20.5

20.7 19.0

19.7 15.1

13.7

15.6

14.3 14.2

13.6 12.0

10

5

15.8

03

04

05

06

07

08

Constant prices

09

10

11

12

13

14

15* 16**

Current prices

output ratio continues to trend upward, amounting to 15.8% in the 12 months ended in May. The import penetration ratio at constant prices sustained its downtrend in 2015, edging down for the second consecutive year – from 17.6% in 2014 to 17.2% in 2015. The strong depreciation of the real in 2015 reinforces the downward movement in the share of imports in domestic consumption. The indicator continues to trend downward in the last 12 months through May, down to 16.5%. The trend toward replacing imported goods by domestic production has also affected the imported input share at constant prices1. In 2015, the indicator started to trend downward, falling from 25.8% in 2014 to 24.6% in 2015. That downward trend continued in 2016, with the indicator reaching 23.6% in the 12 months ended in May. As a result of a reduced use of imported inputs and of an increase in export volumes, the net export to output ratio for manufacturing at current prices, which was close to zero in 2014, increased to 4.1% in 2015. The indicator reversed the downward trend observed since 2006, and a further depreciation of the Brazilian currency will likely have a positive impact on industry. In the 12 months through May, the indicator already reached 6.6%. 1 Only inputs from Mining and quarrying and Manufacturing are considered.

* Figures for 2015 and 2016 are estimates. ** In the 12 months ended in May.

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Y

Trade openness indicators ISSN 2317-708X • Year 6 • Number 1

Trade openness indicators In (%)

INDICATORS

CURRENT PRICES

CONSTANT PRICES

2014

2015*

2016**

2014

2015*

2016**

Export to output ratio

14.3

19.0

20.7

12.0

14.2

15.8

Import penetration ratio

19.2

21.7

21.4

17.6

17.2

16.5

Imported input share1

27.3

28.8

27.9

25.8

24.6

23.6

Net export to output ratio

0.2

4.1

6.6

-0.4

2.2

4.5

* Estimate. ** In the 12 months ended in May. 1 Only inputs from Mining and quarrying and Manufacturing are considered.

EXPORT TO OUTPUT RATIO The export to output ratio for manufacturing (at constant prices) grew from 12.0% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2015 after falling for nine years. In 2016, the export to output ratio continues to trend upward, with the indicator standing at 15.8% in the 12-month period through May.

Sectors with the highest variations 2016* (%)

2016*/2014 percentage points

Other transport equipment

46.3

14.8

The 3.8-percentage point increase between 2014 and 2016 (in the 12 months ended in May) – which reflects an increased importance of foreign markets for production in manufacturing – was led by a rise in export volumes in response to a depreciated real, intensified by a decline in domestic production. From 2014 to 2016 (in the 12 months through May), export volumes rose by 11.2% while production value (in 2007 prices) shrank by 15.4%.

Basic metals

40.3

12.7

Tobacco

46.9

9.8

Motor vehicles. trailers and semi-trailers

14.5

6.0

Wood products

24.5

4.4

Textiles

14.0

4.3

Pulp and paper

29.3

4.0

All manufacturing sectors posted growth in the export to output ratio measured at constant prices between 2014 and 2016 (in the 12 months ended in May). It is worth noting that 8 of the 23 sectors reported a decline in export volumes, accompanied by an even sharper decline in production, which explains the increase in the indicator. These sectors are: Computer, electronic and optical products; Other manufacturing; Pharmaceuticals; Printing and reproduction; Metal products (except machinery and equipment); Electrical equipment; Machinery and equipment; and Furniture.

Machinery and equipment

14.6

2.9

Leather and footwear

22.1

2.3

2

SECTORS

* Estimate. In the 12 months ended in May.

Trade openness indicators ISSN 2317-708X • Year 6 • Number 1

IMPORT PENETRATION RATIO The import penetration ratio for manufacturing (at constant prices) fell for the second consecutive year, down from 17.6% in 2014 to 17.2% in 2015. The indicator continued on a downward path in the last 12 months through May, down to 16.5%. The strong depreciation of the real in 2015 – the Brazilian currency depreciated by 28.8% in real terms against the US dollar – in a slowing domestic demand context reinforced the downward trend in the share of imports in domestic consumption. Imports have fallen proportionately more than production in response to the exchange rate, showing that imported goods are being replaced by domestic production. From 2014 to 2016 (in the 12 months ending in May), while apparent consumption (the sum of production value for

the domestic market and imports) fell by 20.1% in 2007 prices, import volumes recorded a decline of 25.4%. At current prices, the import penetration ratio has shown signs that its upward trend is being reversed in 2016 (in the 12 months through May). Up until 2015, import volumes had not dropped enough to offset the rise in prices of imports (in reals) triggered by the depreciation of the real. Thus, as shown in the chart below, the indicator held steady between 2013 and 2014 and increased by 2.5-percentage points to 21.7% in 2015, falling only in 2016. Between 2014 and 2015, the real depreciated by 41.6% in nominal terms against the US dollar, while import volumes edged down by 16.3% during the same period.

Import penetration ratio for manufacturing In % - at current prices and at constant prices

25 21.7 18.8

20 15.2 15.5 15

10

17.0 14.5

16.7

18.0 18.1

15.3

21.4

19.4 19.2 17.6

17.2 16.5

15.1

10.2

5 03

04

05

06

07

08

09

Constant prices

10

11

12

13

14

15* 16**

Current prices

* Figures for 2015 and 2016 are estimates. ** In the 12 months ended in May.

Most manufacturing sectors experienced a decline in the import penetration ratio at constant prices between 2014 and 2016 (in the 12 months ending in May) as import volumes fell more than domestic consumption. It should be stressed that while the Other transport equipment, Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, Computer, electronic

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and optical products, and Basic metals sectors recorded a decline in import volumes, the import penetration ratio increased as a result of an even stronger decline in domestic consumption value. Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals and Tobacco were the only sectors for which an increase in import volumes was recorded.

Trade openness indicators ISSN 2317-708X • Year 6 • Number 1

Sectors with the highest variations 2016* (%)

2016*/2014 percentage points

Other transport equipment

39.6

10.0

Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals

39.1

4.4

Coke, refined petroleum products and biofuels

19.1

-3.3

Machinery and equipment

28.5

-2.6

Pulp and paper

5.8

-2.4

Metal products

12.0

-2.3

Non-metallic mineral products

4.4

-2.2

Textiles

15.8

-2.2

Electrical equipment

24.6

-1.9

Rubber and plastics products

12.9

-1.9

SECTORS Most significant increases

Most significant decreases

* Estimate. In the 12 months ended in May.

IMPORTED INPUT SHARE After holding relatively steady, the imported input share in manufacturing (at constant prices) took a downturn in 2015, edging down from 25.8% in 2014 to 24.6% in 2015. In 2016, the indicator continues to trend downward, reaching 23.6% in the 12 months ended in May.

This downward trend reflects the response of import volumes to a depreciated domestic currency, i.e. to an increase in the relative cost of imported goods, which in the case of inputs means higher production costs.

Imported input share in manufacturing In % - at constant prices

30 26.1 24.1

25

25.9 25.8 25.1

24.6 23.6

22.5

20 16.5 15

10

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

* Figures for 2015 and 2016 are estimates. ** In the 12 months ended in May. Note: Only inputs from Mining and quarrying and Manufacturing are considered.

4

13

14

15* 16**

Trade openness indicators ISSN 2317-708X • Year 6 • Number 1

The sectoral analysis shows differences in terms of how easy it is to replace imported inputs with domestic ones. Most sectors experienced a decline in imported input share at constant prices between 2014 and 2016 (in the 12 months ended in May). However, the Other transport equipment and Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals

sectors posted growth of 2.9 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, in this indicator. In Chemicals, the most recent comparison – between 2015 and 2016 (in the 12 months through May) – shows a lower decline in the indicator (0.4 percentage points against 2.3 percentage points between 2014 and 2015).

Sectors with the highest variations 2016* (%)

2016*/2014 percentage points

Other transport equipment

33.3

2.9

Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals

42.6

1.5

Printing and reproduction

16.2

-4.2

Textiles

27.0

-3.3

Basic metals

25.3

-3.2

Machinery and equipment

20.1

-3.2

Wearing apparel

17.3

-3.0

Rubber and plastics products

22.8

-2.9

Pulp and paper

12.5

-2.9

SECTORS Most significant increases

Most significant decreases

* Estimate. In the 12 months ended in May.

NET EXPORT TO OUTPUT RATIO The net export to output ratio for manufacturing is the balance between revenues from foreign sales and expenditures on imported inputs, both measured in relation to production value2. After getting close to zero in 2014, when it stood at 0.2%, the net export to output ratio (at current prices) increased to 4.1% in 2015 and continues on a recovery path in 2016. In the 12 months ending in May, the indicator already hit the mark of 6.6%.

2 Only inputs from Mining and quarrying and Manufacturing are considered.

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The indicator reversed the downward trend observed since 2006. The positive balance means that manufacturing export revenues have exceeded spending on imported inputs. This result reflects exports response, boosted by a competitive exchange rate, in the context of a weak domestic market, as well as a disincentive to imports.

Trade openness indicators ISSN 2317-708X • Year 6 • Number 1

Net export to output ratio for manufacturing In % - at current prices

15 10.6 10 6.6

5.9 5

4.5

5.5 4.0 3.8

2.1

3.9 1.9

0

-5

4.1 0.2

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15* 16**

* Figures for 2015 and 2016 are estimates. ** In the 12 months ended in May.

Ten out of the 19 manufacturing sectors show a positive indicator in 2016 (in the 12 months ending in May). It is worth mentioning that the Textiles sector recorded a positive indicator in 2015 after two years of negative results. Between 2014 and 2016 (in the 12 months through May), while most manufacturing sectors experienced an increase in the share of imported inputs in production, export revenues grew at a faster pace, leading to a rise in the net export to output ratio at current prices. The exceptions are Computer, electronic and optical products, Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and Printing and reproduction, as they recorded a decrease in the net export to output ratio.

Sectors with the highest variations 2016* (%)

2016*/2014 percentage points

Other transport equipment

48.8

30.8

Basic metals

26.7

15.3

Wood products

30.1

10.3

Pulp and paper

28.8

10.1

Machinery and equipment

13.0

7.8

Coke, refined petroleum products and biofuel

-16.4

7.8

Textiles

5.8

7.5

Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

-0.2

6.3

SECTORS

* Estimate. In the 12 months ended in May.

New methodology for calculating the trade openness indicators A new method has been adopted to calculate the imported input share and the net export to output ratio, as well as the constant-price series of the four indicators.

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Learn more For more information, including the new methodology and data tables, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_cac

TRADE OPENNESS INDICATORS | English version of “Coeficientes de Abertura Comercial Ano 6 Número 1” | Bi-annual publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Directorate - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Samantha Cunha, Henry Pourchet (Funcex) and Edson Velloso | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be reproduced, provided that the source is mentioned.