TREND FORECASTING
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TREND FORECASTING PINWHEEL TALKS EXCLUSIVELY TO SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW MARIA MACKINNEYVALENTIN OF THE ROYAL DANISH ACADEMY OF FINE ARTS, DESIGN SCHOOL IN COPENHAGEN ABOUT TRENDS IN 2012 AND HOW THIS MAY AFFECT THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENTS IN BUSINESS, FASHION AND RETAIL.
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Where do we stand in 2012 with trends? Taking into consideration economical, technological and social issues
There would be no trends without consumers. Trends occur and develop out of our need for communicating as individuals, as a group and In relation to the events around us. So when we look at trends right not as we are hopefully moving out of recession, they are influenced by our modest optimism for the future mixed in with the growing need for us to see our unique selves in the products we surround ourselves with. What actually constitutes the make-up of the term always remain the same despite greater marketing capabilities? The term trend is originally a maritime term referring to the curve of a coastline so trend can be said to refer to a tendency of a development to move in
a certain direction. Looking at trend theory historically, there are some basic mechanisms driving trends that are more or less the same as they have been over the past two centuries. Especially, the drive for social distinction and imitation as a motor in trends was also prevalent in the 19th century, though the conditions instance in term of having the access and privilege of engaging in trends.
from someone who is setting a trend? A trend is always collective. That is why regardless of all the talk of individualism, user-driven innovation and DIY there are still trends. We use trends in for instance fashion to communicate which group we belong to – or would like to belong to. The Internet is helping consumers by allowing them to be more informed and helping them to decide on their
S U M M ER 12
P INWH E E L
purchases based on reviews, forums and various forms of social media. But what does this mean for retailers? As it cannot be denied that consumers are becoming increasingly sophisticated at multichannel shopping. So what take would you give on improving brands and retailers needs to better align their business operating models with consumer sophistication and experience?
consumers wish to communicate than an actual desire to be in control. So I think retailers need to think in ‘open’ products that consumers can make their own. This might be in control. Consumers want to be able to finish the product in the sense of experiencing a sense of discovery rather than being served the whole package. This is seen in the rise of workwear as fashion. Until recently, workwear was generally considered functional rather than fashionable. However, appropriating functional wear to fashion allows for the consumers to rediscover the aesthetic because they
duration and process of adoption rendering trends a temporal rather than a spatial phenomenon’. Could you elaborate a little in regards to these ‘chronological steps’, possibly referring to an example for our readers (given that we as a consumer give away so much personal information and opinion that brands and fashion can hardly fail to notice what the demand and consensus for what the ‘next’ trend should be).
The power of social media is to be underestimated at a brand or retailers peril, it can with certainty be stated. Some smart brands and retailers (from various forms of research) are leveraging the interest in Pinterest and are creating virtual inspiration boards, inviting the masses to participate in the design process by uploading images. What are your feelings towards brands and companies using social media as tools for sense and visual future impact on new lines and designs?
IT TH IS W AT IMP O HI TR O IN BV LE B EN RTA P TO IO R DS NT CO INT SO US AND AR TO IM N ER C INT S E R CR PA SU EST IAL ER HA SO EM IS E CT ME TO M ES VE CIA EM SE LIM ATIN ON R B U EDI T IN AN L S BE O R N IT G C EH NE A S TA SE E D SO ON AV AR UC PP IN C S IO TH H IN AS G TH IAL UM U E ID ER R, T CO E S H M NTIT WH E M Y E ER N CI AL
The power struggle between consumers on the one hand and designers and retailers on the other has intensified with the development in digital media. But consumers still want to be seduced, so the power struggle is more of a symbolic nature and says more about the values
are endowed with the sense of seeing things in a new way.
In most trend forecasting, trends are seen as a progression over time that is measured according to the adoption process with innovators and early adopters as the social drivers of the development followed by
It is important to remember that trends are
social so while brands have an obvious interest in tapping into social media such as Pinterest to unearth consumer behaviour, the impact on consumers when creating social identity is limited in the commercial sense for now there are interesting prospects in terms of new angles on co-creation that will be interesting to follow.
You write in your dissertation ‘On the Nature of Trends’, that ‘in fashion forecasting and marketing, trends are generally seen as a succession of chronological steps, and trends are therefore measured according to the
8
9
This implies several things, for instance that trends begin and end at specific points, that trends shift radically and at a relatively high speed. However, looking at trends since the turn of the 21st century, they tend to follow less linear patterns. Contemporary trends tend to move relatively slowly, they change gradually and according to mutations and variations rather than radical shifts, meaning that one trend will grow into the next. This approach to trends is less temporal that that of the trend forecasters and more spatial in the sense of moving in dimensions. Is there a danger that giving away so much information and inspiration for designers and brands via social tools could leave the market flooded with ‘already seen’ pieces and conscious plagiarism for next season’s lines. Should there be a ‘trend’ in turning a blind eye and taking as little inspiration as possible to create a fresh look? Inspiration does not come from one place and the notion of novelty as an objective phenomenon does not exists. So designers are good at rediscovering, reinterpreting or combining elements in new ways so they feel new and fresh. I hope you don’t mind if I pose a more general ‘trend’ question to you. With a continuous obsession with ‘trends’ in various sectors, do you feel that this is having
etc? Instead of thinking for oneself and making up one’s own mind about the world, some could argue that (without statement but more implication) certain sectors have become content to adopt a “follow the herd” mentality. Trends do not lead a life on their own like independent organisms and they are not about mainstream alone. I am sure that entrepreneurs and established companies alike will continue to strive for innovation and development. As some final thoughts for our readers and ourself to consider, what do you feel brands, businesses and fashion should be doing better in communicating trends? Should the future be more open and expressive e.g. is 24-7 social interaction good for the future? Plus how can we as consumers become better educated in the machine and mechanisms of ‘trends’? It is important to understand that trends are about us – how we try to communicate with others, how we try to understand the events and values around us, and status representation. So I think more knowledge about trends in this respect is needed and more dissemination of the state of the art research in the fields to help make the perception of and work with trends even more knowledge based. If you are interested in reading more about Maria Mackinney-Valentin’s in-depth research on trends then look up her fascinating dissertation published in 2010 entitled ‘On The Nature of Trends – A Study of Trend Mechanisms in Contemporary Fashion’.
P INWH E E L
TREND FORECASTING PINWHEEL TALKS EXCLUSIVELY TO SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW MARIA MACKINNEYVALENTIN OF THE ROYAL DANISH ACADEMY OF FINE ARTS, DESIGN SCHOOL IN COPENHAGEN ABOUT TRENDS IN 2012 AND HOW THIS MAY AFFECT THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENTS IN BUSINESS, FASHION AND RETAIL.
4
5
S U M M ER 12
P INWH E E L
6
7
Where do we stand in 2012 with trends? Taking into consideration economical, technological and social issues
There would be no trends without consumers. Trends occur and develop out of our need for communicating as individuals, as a group and In relation to the events around us. So when we look at trends right not as we are hopefully moving out of recession, they are influenced by our modest optimism for the future mixed in with the growing need for us to see our unique selves in the products we surround ourselves with. What actually constitutes the make-up of the term always remain the same despite greater marketing capabilities? The term trend is originally a maritime term referring to the curve of a coastline so trend can be said to refer to a tendency of a development to move in
a certain direction. Looking at trend theory historically, there are some basic mechanisms driving trends that are more or less the same as they have been over the past two centuries. Especially, the drive for social distinction and imitation as a motor in trends was also prevalent in the 19th century, though the conditions instance in term of having the access and privilege of engaging in trends.
from someone who is setting a trend? A trend is always collective. That is why regardless of all the talk of individualism, user-driven innovation and DIY there are still trends. We use trends in for instance fashion to communicate which group we belong to – or would like to belong to. The Internet is helping consumers by allowing them to be more informed and helping them to decide on their
S U M M ER 12
P INWH E E L
purchases based on reviews, forums and various forms of social media. But what does this mean for retailers? As it cannot be denied that consumers are becoming increasingly sophisticated at multichannel shopping. So what take would you give on improving brands and retailers needs to better align their business operating models with consumer sophistication and experience?
consumers wish to communicate than an actual desire to be in control. So I think retailers need to think in ‘open’ products that consumers can make their own. This might be in control. Consumers want to be able to finish the product in the sense of experiencing a sense of discovery rather than being served the whole package. This is seen in the rise of workwear as fashion. Until recently, workwear was generally considered functional rather than fashionable. However, appropriating functional wear to fashion allows for the consumers to rediscover the aesthetic because they
duration and process of adoption rendering trends a temporal rather than a spatial phenomenon’. Could you elaborate a little in regards to these ‘chronological steps’, possibly referring to an example for our readers (given that we as a consumer give away so much personal information and opinion that brands and fashion can hardly fail to notice what the demand and consensus for what the ‘next’ trend should be).
The power of social media is to be underestimated at a brand or retailers peril, it can with certainty be stated. Some smart brands and retailers (from various forms of research) are leveraging the interest in Pinterest and are creating virtual inspiration boards, inviting the masses to participate in the design process by uploading images. What are your feelings towards brands and companies using social media as tools for sense and visual future impact on new lines and designs?
IT TH IS W AT IMP O HI TR O IN BV LE B EN RTA P TO IO R DS NT CO INT SO US AND AR TO IM N ER C INT S E R CR PA SU EST IAL ER HA SO EM IS E CT ME TO M ES VE CIA EM SE LIM ATIN ON R B U EDI T IN AN L S BE O R N IT G C EH NE A S TA SE E D SO ON AV AR UC PP IN C S IO TH H IN AS G TH IAL UM U E ID ER R, T CO E S H M NTIT WH E M Y E ER N CI AL
The power struggle between consumers on the one hand and designers and retailers on the other has intensified with the development in digital media. But consumers still want to be seduced, so the power struggle is more of a symbolic nature and says more about the values
are endowed with the sense of seeing things in a new way.
In most trend forecasting, trends are seen as a progression over time that is measured according to the adoption process with innovators and early adopters as the social drivers of the development followed by
It is important to remember that trends are
social so while brands have an obvious interest in tapping into social media such as Pinterest to unearth consumer behaviour, the impact on consumers when creating social identity is limited in the commercial sense for now there are interesting prospects in terms of new angles on co-creation that will be interesting to follow.
You write in your dissertation ‘On the Nature of Trends’, that ‘in fashion forecasting and marketing, trends are generally seen as a succession of chronological steps, and trends are therefore measured according to the
8
9
This implies several things, for instance that trends begin and end at specific points, that trends shift radically and at a relatively high speed. However, looking at trends since the turn of the 21st century, they tend to follow less linear patterns. Contemporary trends tend to move relatively slowly, they change gradually and according to mutations and variations rather than radical shifts, meaning that one trend will grow into the next. This approach to trends is less temporal that that of the trend forecasters and more spatial in the sense of moving in dimensions. Is there a danger that giving away so much information and inspiration for designers and brands via social tools could leave the market flooded with ‘already seen’ pieces and conscious plagiarism for next season’s lines. Should there be a ‘trend’ in turning a blind eye and taking as little inspiration as possible to create a fresh look? Inspiration does not come from one place and the notion of novelty as an objective phenomenon does not exists. So designers are good at rediscovering, reinterpreting or combining elements in new ways so they feel new and fresh. I hope you don’t mind if I pose a more general ‘trend’ question to you. With a continuous obsession with ‘trends’ in various sectors, do you feel that this is having
etc? Instead of thinking for oneself and making up one’s own mind about the world, some could argue that (without statement but more implication) certain sectors have become content to adopt a “follow the herd” mentality. Trends do not lead a life on their own like independent organisms and they are not about mainstream alone. I am sure that entrepreneurs and established companies alike will continue to strive for innovation and development. As some final thoughts for our readers and ourself to consider, what do you feel brands, businesses and fashion should be doing better in communicating trends? Should the future be more open and expressive e.g. is 24-7 social interaction good for the future? Plus how can we as consumers become better educated in the machine and mechanisms of ‘trends’? It is important to understand that trends are about us – how we try to communicate with others, how we try to understand the events and values around us, and status representation. So I think more knowledge about trends in this respect is needed and more dissemination of the state of the art research in the fields to help make the perception of and work with trends even more knowledge based. If you are interested in reading more about Maria Mackinney-Valentin’s in-depth research on trends then look up her fascinating dissertation published in 2010 entitled ‘On The Nature of Trends – A Study of Trend Mechanisms in Contemporary Fashion’.
