Turnout and Voter Trust - WhiteHouse.gov
Turnout and Voter Trust Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. Presentation to the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity Goffstown, NH September 12, 2017 © 2014 University of New Hampshire. All rights reserved.
Why Vote? • Rational to vote only if expected benefits of voting are greater than cost (Downs, Tullock, Riker & Ordeshook)
PB + D > C P = Probability that individual vote will affect the outcome B = Expected benefit of voting D = Psychological benefit citizen receives from voting C = Cost of voting (time, expense, opportunity costs)
• Low turnout due to either high costs, low expected benefits, or both
Multiple Factors Correlated with Turnout • Demographics – Age – Education – Income
• Barriers • Civic Education – Confidence in elections
• Campaign factors – – – –
Competition Interest in race Economy War
• No Single cause of increase or decrease in turnout
Turnout: US Presidential Elections (VAP) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
US Turnout NH Sec. of State
1984
1988
1992
NH Turnout
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Turnout: US Presidential Elections (VEP) 80% 75% 70% 65%
60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1980
1984
1988 DC Turnout
McDonald, US Elections Project
1992
1996
MN Turnout
2000 SD Turnout
2004
2008 OR Turnouot
2012
2016
Why Differences? • Varies by state – Some consistently high – Minnesota – Some consistently low - Hawaii – Some change over time
• Different reasons for changes in each state
Why Turnout Decline after 1960s? • 26th Amendment? – Turnout dropped for 20 years as Baby Boom was “digested”
• But is that what happened?
Turnout: US Presidential Elections (VAP) 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
US Turnout NH Sec. of State
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
US Turnout 1964-2012 by Age (VAP) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
18 to 24
1984
1988
25 to 44
1992
1996
45 to 64
2000
2004
65+
Young-Adult Voting: An Analysis of Presidential Elections, 1964-2012, Thom File, US Census Bureau
2008
2012
Trust in Elections Essential • For accepting results • Trust/support of winning candidate & policies Public confidence “is closely related to the State’s interest in preventing voter fraud, public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process has independent significance, because it encourages citizen participation in the democratic process.” Justice Stevens, Crawford v. Marion County Election Board
Perceived Threats to Electoral Trust • Lack of Constitutional understanding – State variations in electoral procedures – Misunderstanding of Electoral College
• Inaccurate counting – Computer hacking – Paper trail
• Illegal voting – Non-residents – Non citizens – Multiple votes
Trust in NH elections: Confidence vote in previous election was accurately counted 100%
90%
85%
83%
80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
7%
13%
9%
4%
0%
2003 Confident
Source: Granite State Poll UNH Survey Center
Not Confident
2016 Don't Know/Not Sure
Less confidence in Electronic Voting than Paper Ballots: Increasing over recent years 100% 90% 80%
69%
70% 60% 50%
40%
53% 38%
30%
23%
20%
10%
10%
8%
0% 2003
Paper Ballot Source: Granite State Poll UNH Survey Center
2016
Touch Screen
Don't Know/Not Sure
Summary • Many factors influence turnout. Very difficult to determine a specific cause for changes in turnout • Citizens need to have confidence in elections: – Tradeoffs between stricter voting laws to increase trust and barriers that may discourage voting
Thank You! [email protected]
Why Vote? • Rational to vote only if expected benefits of voting are greater than cost (Downs, Tullock, Riker & Ordeshook)
PB + D > C P = Probability that individual vote will affect the outcome B = Expected benefit of voting D = Psychological benefit citizen receives from voting C = Cost of voting (time, expense, opportunity costs)
• Low turnout due to either high costs, low expected benefits, or both
Multiple Factors Correlated with Turnout • Demographics – Age – Education – Income
• Barriers • Civic Education – Confidence in elections
• Campaign factors – – – –
Competition Interest in race Economy War
• No Single cause of increase or decrease in turnout
Turnout: US Presidential Elections (VAP) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
US Turnout NH Sec. of State
1984
1988
1992
NH Turnout
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Turnout: US Presidential Elections (VEP) 80% 75% 70% 65%
60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1980
1984
1988 DC Turnout
McDonald, US Elections Project
1992
1996
MN Turnout
2000 SD Turnout
2004
2008 OR Turnouot
2012
2016
Why Differences? • Varies by state – Some consistently high – Minnesota – Some consistently low - Hawaii – Some change over time
• Different reasons for changes in each state
Why Turnout Decline after 1960s? • 26th Amendment? – Turnout dropped for 20 years as Baby Boom was “digested”
• But is that what happened?
Turnout: US Presidential Elections (VAP) 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
US Turnout NH Sec. of State
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
US Turnout 1964-2012 by Age (VAP) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
18 to 24
1984
1988
25 to 44
1992
1996
45 to 64
2000
2004
65+
Young-Adult Voting: An Analysis of Presidential Elections, 1964-2012, Thom File, US Census Bureau
2008
2012
Trust in Elections Essential • For accepting results • Trust/support of winning candidate & policies Public confidence “is closely related to the State’s interest in preventing voter fraud, public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process has independent significance, because it encourages citizen participation in the democratic process.” Justice Stevens, Crawford v. Marion County Election Board
Perceived Threats to Electoral Trust • Lack of Constitutional understanding – State variations in electoral procedures – Misunderstanding of Electoral College
• Inaccurate counting – Computer hacking – Paper trail
• Illegal voting – Non-residents – Non citizens – Multiple votes
Trust in NH elections: Confidence vote in previous election was accurately counted 100%
90%
85%
83%
80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
7%
13%
9%
4%
0%
2003 Confident
Source: Granite State Poll UNH Survey Center
Not Confident
2016 Don't Know/Not Sure
Less confidence in Electronic Voting than Paper Ballots: Increasing over recent years 100% 90% 80%
69%
70% 60% 50%
40%
53% 38%
30%
23%
20%
10%
10%
8%
0% 2003
Paper Ballot Source: Granite State Poll UNH Survey Center
2016
Touch Screen
Don't Know/Not Sure
Summary • Many factors influence turnout. Very difficult to determine a specific cause for changes in turnout • Citizens need to have confidence in elections: – Tradeoffs between stricter voting laws to increase trust and barriers that may discourage voting
Thank You! [email protected]
