UK Energy Research Centre
Future energy technologies and philosophies for UK and Europe
John Loughhead FREng Executive Director UK Energy Research Centre 32nd ATSE National Symposium, Brisbane, Australia 16 November 2009
UK energy sources 1995
2005
Total: 218.4
Total: 234.3
mtoe
9.7
1.7
22.4
0.8
mtoe
17.1
7.8
31.7 39.9
34.5
%
Coal Petrol Gas Nuc lear Hydroelec tric ity Imports
Source: DUKES Statistics
Renewables and waste
33
%
Sectoral emissions under business as usual
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
The Scale of the Challenge: Climate Change Mitigation The UK Government has committed to A 34% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 (110 MTCO2e cf 1990) an aspiration of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050
4
UK CO2 emissions under different scenarios
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
Sectoral emissions for 2000, 2035, 2050
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
-40% -60% -80%
-90%
Final energy demand by fuel 2035 & 2050
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
-40% -60% -80%
-90%
Electricity generation mix 2035 & 2050
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
-40% -60% -80%
-90%
We have a plan!
European Roadmap By 2020: 20% electricity from wind 15% electricity from solar PV Grid can seamlessly integrate 35% stochastic renewables 14% EU energy from sustainable bio-energy sources CCS on verge of commercial viability (assuming functioning carbon market First GEN IV nuclear fission prototype ready
Planned European R&D Investments 2010 - 2020: Technology Solar PV & CSP
Investment €16Bn
Target 15% electricity
CCS
€13Bn
Almost commercial
Energy Efficiency
€11Bn
25 smart cities
Fuel cells & Hydrogen
€6Bn
Commercial
Electricity networks
€2Bn
50% smart
Source: McKinsey and Company “Assessing the cost of CCS”
CCS: Oxyfuel technology status
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
CCS: Post-combustion capture status
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
CCS: Pre-combustion technology status
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
CCS: Demo project requirements
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
UK CCS UK Government will support a postcombustion capture full-scale (c.300MW) demonstrator Bids have been invited Contribution not defined, but expected around £250M Decision during 2009 for operation 2012 3 further CCS systems, funded by customer charges No new coal plant without CCS readiness and minimum 300MW initial capacity
Wind On-shore wind turbines are now a commercial technology, albeit supported by market intervention. $4000/kW; load factor reduce costs of solar cells cf module costs of $3/W today Materials 2nd and 3rd Generation: silicon, cadmium telluride and copper indium di-selenide Main research themes Light trapping. Extending the absorbing power of silicon. Reducing the losses in solar cells. Making materials efficient device structures Improving process technology
Large area thin film PV array at St Asaph, North Wales.
Marine- Tidal energy R&D Tidal energy has specific UK potential
Marine
Mw-scale demonstrators in test at present Far from economically viable today Increase understanding of the nature and optimum recovery methods for tidal stream energy Offshore energy conversion and power conditioning Deployment post-2015
Marine – wave energy . First UK deployment target is 2GW. Major challenges of reliability and cost Devices are unreliable and fragile at present Still at R&D stage with concept trials Deployment uncertain, but after 2020.
Bioenergy – R&D focus Land-use competition with food crops and overall sustainability is major issue R&D biotechnology: Ensuring sustainability Widening the range of starting materials for bioenergy Making plant cell walls easier to break down Optimising fermentation to produce fuel
R&D bioenergy:
Resources Biomass characterisation Thermal conversion Biofuels and biorefineries
Importance of heat CO2 Em issions from UK Energy End-User Consum ption
160 140 120
42
mtCO2
100 80
32
60 95
144
32
40 61 20
37
0 Residential
Service
CO2 emissions from heating (mtCO2)
Manufacturing
Transport
Non-heat CO2 emissions (mtCO2)
UK industrial energy use by quality Energy (PJ) 200 180 Pulp and Paper
160
Gypsum
140
Other Lime
120
Iron and Steel 100
Glass Food and Drink
80
Chemicals 60
Ceramics Cement
40
Aluminium
20 0
0.27
0.65
0.79 0.85 0.87 0.95 1.00
Thermodynamic quality
Source: Geoff Hammond, UKERC and Bath University
Heat
UK industrial energy saving potential % 100 Economic potential
80 60
Technical potential
Existing energy use
Thermodynamic potential
40 20 0 Energy saving potential
Heat Source: Geoff Hammond, UKERC and Bath University
The Scale of the Challenge: Contribution of the Built Environment 45% of all present carbon emissions come from existing buildings, with 27% from homes 87% of existing buildings will still be here in 2050
26
Market penetration trends, home energy efficiency measures
Source: Prof Dennis Loveday, Loughborough University
Progress towards 80%...energy efficiency predictions: 2001 English housing stock 0% reduction 20%
100
Existing 2001 English housing stock (123 MTCO2) +100% solid wall insulation
80
Heating CO2 emissions (MTCO2)
40% +100% cavity wall insulation +100% low energy lights
60 60%
APPLIANCE INTERVENTIONS
40
+100% low standby power appliances
80%
+100% gas boilers as condensing +100% triple glazing +100% 0.5 ach ventilation rate +100% 300mm loft insulation +100% water heating interventions +100% low energy cold appliances
HEATING INTERVENTIONS
20
0 0
10
20
30
40
Appliance (cooking, lights and appliances) CO2 emissions (MTCO2) -Based on 1971 to 2000 average climate data. Source: CaRB project, Carbon Vision Partnership, funded by EPSRC Source: Prof Dennis Loveday, Loughborough University
Recent progress: Hard data from recent times projected forward 1990#:
154MtCO2 equivalent from housing
35% of energy saving interventions installed*
2005#:
147MtCO2 equivalent from housing
65% of energy saving interventions installed*
2020
114MtCO2, HMG’s target for housing
Must achieve net savings at six times rate of recent history. 4% savings net of many factors At most a 20% further reductions via 100% reach of * above. # Measured data, incontrovertible * 3” loft insulation, >60% window double glazed, >60% rooms draught proofed, cavity wall insulation to modern standards 29 Source: Prof Mike Kelly, CLG
Housing
MicroCHP: Fuel cell base 10 000 unit trial by 2010 36 000 for 2012
SOFC technologies
Ceres Power Rolls Royce FCS
Heat Pumps Can provide space / water heating, and space cooling Upgrades ‘low grade’ environmental heat Ground and air source Typical COPs in range 3-5 Best with lower temp. / large area emitters Retrofit –some challenges (emitter and garden areas) Consumer barriers: unfamiliarity, maintenance availability, noise
Carbon intensity of heating Current grid carbon intensity
Carbon per useful heat
0.14
useful heat intensity (kgC/kWh
0.12
Direct electric
0.1 CHP
0.08 0.06
Heat pump
0.04 0.02
grid intensity (kgC/kWh)
18 0.
16 0.
14 0.
12 0.
1 0.
08 0.
06 0.
04 0.
02
-0.02
0.
0
0
Current grid status
Source: Dr Nick Eyre, OUCE Oxford and UKERC
Gas-fired boiler
Nuclear planning
Transport: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, Batteries, or Bikes
t
To close Carbon reduction targets are challenging Technologies to address these are identified, but most require substantial development Wind is the primary “new” energy source for Northern Europe CCS may play only an interim role Primary need is for engineering development, not science Solar technologies do need new science
UK Energy Research Centre www.ukerc.ac.uk
John Loughhead FREng Executive Director UK Energy Research Centre 32nd ATSE National Symposium, Brisbane, Australia 16 November 2009
UK energy sources 1995
2005
Total: 218.4
Total: 234.3
mtoe
9.7
1.7
22.4
0.8
mtoe
17.1
7.8
31.7 39.9
34.5
%
Coal Petrol Gas Nuc lear Hydroelec tric ity Imports
Source: DUKES Statistics
Renewables and waste
33
%
Sectoral emissions under business as usual
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
The Scale of the Challenge: Climate Change Mitigation The UK Government has committed to A 34% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 (110 MTCO2e cf 1990) an aspiration of an 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050
4
UK CO2 emissions under different scenarios
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
Sectoral emissions for 2000, 2035, 2050
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
-40% -60% -80%
-90%
Final energy demand by fuel 2035 & 2050
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
-40% -60% -80%
-90%
Electricity generation mix 2035 & 2050
Source: UKERC Energy 2050 Report, May 2009
-40% -60% -80%
-90%
We have a plan!
European Roadmap By 2020: 20% electricity from wind 15% electricity from solar PV Grid can seamlessly integrate 35% stochastic renewables 14% EU energy from sustainable bio-energy sources CCS on verge of commercial viability (assuming functioning carbon market First GEN IV nuclear fission prototype ready
Planned European R&D Investments 2010 - 2020: Technology Solar PV & CSP
Investment €16Bn
Target 15% electricity
CCS
€13Bn
Almost commercial
Energy Efficiency
€11Bn
25 smart cities
Fuel cells & Hydrogen
€6Bn
Commercial
Electricity networks
€2Bn
50% smart
Source: McKinsey and Company “Assessing the cost of CCS”
CCS: Oxyfuel technology status
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
CCS: Post-combustion capture status
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
CCS: Pre-combustion technology status
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
CCS: Demo project requirements
Source: EU ZEP Analysis
UK CCS UK Government will support a postcombustion capture full-scale (c.300MW) demonstrator Bids have been invited Contribution not defined, but expected around £250M Decision during 2009 for operation 2012 3 further CCS systems, funded by customer charges No new coal plant without CCS readiness and minimum 300MW initial capacity
Wind On-shore wind turbines are now a commercial technology, albeit supported by market intervention. $4000/kW; load factor reduce costs of solar cells cf module costs of $3/W today Materials 2nd and 3rd Generation: silicon, cadmium telluride and copper indium di-selenide Main research themes Light trapping. Extending the absorbing power of silicon. Reducing the losses in solar cells. Making materials efficient device structures Improving process technology
Large area thin film PV array at St Asaph, North Wales.
Marine- Tidal energy R&D Tidal energy has specific UK potential
Marine
Mw-scale demonstrators in test at present Far from economically viable today Increase understanding of the nature and optimum recovery methods for tidal stream energy Offshore energy conversion and power conditioning Deployment post-2015
Marine – wave energy . First UK deployment target is 2GW. Major challenges of reliability and cost Devices are unreliable and fragile at present Still at R&D stage with concept trials Deployment uncertain, but after 2020.
Bioenergy – R&D focus Land-use competition with food crops and overall sustainability is major issue R&D biotechnology: Ensuring sustainability Widening the range of starting materials for bioenergy Making plant cell walls easier to break down Optimising fermentation to produce fuel
R&D bioenergy:
Resources Biomass characterisation Thermal conversion Biofuels and biorefineries
Importance of heat CO2 Em issions from UK Energy End-User Consum ption
160 140 120
42
mtCO2
100 80
32
60 95
144
32
40 61 20
37
0 Residential
Service
CO2 emissions from heating (mtCO2)
Manufacturing
Transport
Non-heat CO2 emissions (mtCO2)
UK industrial energy use by quality Energy (PJ) 200 180 Pulp and Paper
160
Gypsum
140
Other Lime
120
Iron and Steel 100
Glass Food and Drink
80
Chemicals 60
Ceramics Cement
40
Aluminium
20 0
0.27
0.65
0.79 0.85 0.87 0.95 1.00
Thermodynamic quality
Source: Geoff Hammond, UKERC and Bath University
Heat
UK industrial energy saving potential % 100 Economic potential
80 60
Technical potential
Existing energy use
Thermodynamic potential
40 20 0 Energy saving potential
Heat Source: Geoff Hammond, UKERC and Bath University
The Scale of the Challenge: Contribution of the Built Environment 45% of all present carbon emissions come from existing buildings, with 27% from homes 87% of existing buildings will still be here in 2050
26
Market penetration trends, home energy efficiency measures
Source: Prof Dennis Loveday, Loughborough University
Progress towards 80%...energy efficiency predictions: 2001 English housing stock 0% reduction 20%
100
Existing 2001 English housing stock (123 MTCO2) +100% solid wall insulation
80
Heating CO2 emissions (MTCO2)
40% +100% cavity wall insulation +100% low energy lights
60 60%
APPLIANCE INTERVENTIONS
40
+100% low standby power appliances
80%
+100% gas boilers as condensing +100% triple glazing +100% 0.5 ach ventilation rate +100% 300mm loft insulation +100% water heating interventions +100% low energy cold appliances
HEATING INTERVENTIONS
20
0 0
10
20
30
40
Appliance (cooking, lights and appliances) CO2 emissions (MTCO2) -Based on 1971 to 2000 average climate data. Source: CaRB project, Carbon Vision Partnership, funded by EPSRC Source: Prof Dennis Loveday, Loughborough University
Recent progress: Hard data from recent times projected forward 1990#:
154MtCO2 equivalent from housing
35% of energy saving interventions installed*
2005#:
147MtCO2 equivalent from housing
65% of energy saving interventions installed*
2020
114MtCO2, HMG’s target for housing
Must achieve net savings at six times rate of recent history. 4% savings net of many factors At most a 20% further reductions via 100% reach of * above. # Measured data, incontrovertible * 3” loft insulation, >60% window double glazed, >60% rooms draught proofed, cavity wall insulation to modern standards 29 Source: Prof Mike Kelly, CLG
Housing
MicroCHP: Fuel cell base 10 000 unit trial by 2010 36 000 for 2012
SOFC technologies
Ceres Power Rolls Royce FCS
Heat Pumps Can provide space / water heating, and space cooling Upgrades ‘low grade’ environmental heat Ground and air source Typical COPs in range 3-5 Best with lower temp. / large area emitters Retrofit –some challenges (emitter and garden areas) Consumer barriers: unfamiliarity, maintenance availability, noise
Carbon intensity of heating Current grid carbon intensity
Carbon per useful heat
0.14
useful heat intensity (kgC/kWh
0.12
Direct electric
0.1 CHP
0.08 0.06
Heat pump
0.04 0.02
grid intensity (kgC/kWh)
18 0.
16 0.
14 0.
12 0.
1 0.
08 0.
06 0.
04 0.
02
-0.02
0.
0
0
Current grid status
Source: Dr Nick Eyre, OUCE Oxford and UKERC
Gas-fired boiler
Nuclear planning
Transport: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, Batteries, or Bikes
t
To close Carbon reduction targets are challenging Technologies to address these are identified, but most require substantial development Wind is the primary “new” energy source for Northern Europe CCS may play only an interim role Primary need is for engineering development, not science Solar technologies do need new science
UK Energy Research Centre www.ukerc.ac.uk
