Under Pressure: Congress, Sequestration, and the Trillion-Dollar Triad
Under Pressure: Congress, Sequestration, and the Trillion-Dollar Triad
Bradley Harris Program Assistant and Junior Lobbyist Dec. 9, 2014
3 ½ Layers of Complexity 1. Traditional Budget Process – DoD and DOE
2. Inability to Pass Regular Appropriation Bills 3. Budget Control Act of 2011 (Mountain of Nuclear Modernization)
2
Budget Process Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Energy and Water Appropriations Bill
President
Types of Appropriation Bills • • •
Appropriation Bill Omnibus Continuing Resolution (CR)
Other Relevant Bills • •
Defense Appropriations Bill National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
3
Budget Caps
Source: Center for American Progress
Mountain of Nuclear Modernization
Source: Congressional Budget Office
5
Underestimating Cost
NNSA’s budget estimates “may not represent total funding needed” -GAO Dec. 11, 2013
Previous Estimate
Latest Estimate
Status
MOX
$1.6 Billion
$34 Billion
3 Years Behind Schedule
B61 LEP
$4 Billion
$10-12 Billion
3 Years Behind Schedule
Sources: Government Accountability Office; Project on Government Oversight
6
Prospects for Raising the Caps
• Budget Control Act born out of the inability to reach a compromise • On the domestic spending side, the caps are the Republicans’ chief accomplishment for the past six years • Divisions within both parties
“I don't see a path where you're going to get bipartisan relief on BCA caps.” – Former Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Nov. 15, 2014 Sources: International Business Times; FreedomWorks; Wall Street Journal
7
House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Chairman Mike Simpson
ID-2 Among the top 10 percent of the most conservative districts in the country
Sources: www.legislature.idaho.gov; http://simpson.house.gov/
8
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen
•
Chairman of the Subcommittee on Defense
•
Former Chairman of the Energy and Water Subcommittee
•
Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6
Sources: Google; Cook Political Report
9
Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Chairman Lamar Alexander
Tennessee •
Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+12
•
Y-12 National Security Complex • 5,000 employees • 2,000 subcontractors • $407 million in wages • $390 million spent on goods and services
Y-12 National Security Complex Sources: Wired, http://www.alexander.senate.gov/public/, http://www.ornl.gov/
10
Under Pressure: The Nuclear Weapons Budget in 2015 • Significant relief from the budget caps are unlikely • Budget restrictions will force two zerosum games
• Delays are more likely than outright cancellations • Submarines have the most congressional support, while ICBM’s are most vulnerable to cuts
Minuteman III ICBM
11
Bradley Harris Program Assistant and Junior Lobbyist Dec. 9, 2014
3 ½ Layers of Complexity 1. Traditional Budget Process – DoD and DOE
2. Inability to Pass Regular Appropriation Bills 3. Budget Control Act of 2011 (Mountain of Nuclear Modernization)
2
Budget Process Office of Management and Budget (OMB)
House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Energy and Water Appropriations Bill
President
Types of Appropriation Bills • • •
Appropriation Bill Omnibus Continuing Resolution (CR)
Other Relevant Bills • •
Defense Appropriations Bill National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
3
Budget Caps
Source: Center for American Progress
Mountain of Nuclear Modernization
Source: Congressional Budget Office
5
Underestimating Cost
NNSA’s budget estimates “may not represent total funding needed” -GAO Dec. 11, 2013
Previous Estimate
Latest Estimate
Status
MOX
$1.6 Billion
$34 Billion
3 Years Behind Schedule
B61 LEP
$4 Billion
$10-12 Billion
3 Years Behind Schedule
Sources: Government Accountability Office; Project on Government Oversight
6
Prospects for Raising the Caps
• Budget Control Act born out of the inability to reach a compromise • On the domestic spending side, the caps are the Republicans’ chief accomplishment for the past six years • Divisions within both parties
“I don't see a path where you're going to get bipartisan relief on BCA caps.” – Former Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Nov. 15, 2014 Sources: International Business Times; FreedomWorks; Wall Street Journal
7
House Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Chairman Mike Simpson
ID-2 Among the top 10 percent of the most conservative districts in the country
Sources: www.legislature.idaho.gov; http://simpson.house.gov/
8
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen
•
Chairman of the Subcommittee on Defense
•
Former Chairman of the Energy and Water Subcommittee
•
Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6
Sources: Google; Cook Political Report
9
Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water Chairman Lamar Alexander
Tennessee •
Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+12
•
Y-12 National Security Complex • 5,000 employees • 2,000 subcontractors • $407 million in wages • $390 million spent on goods and services
Y-12 National Security Complex Sources: Wired, http://www.alexander.senate.gov/public/, http://www.ornl.gov/
10
Under Pressure: The Nuclear Weapons Budget in 2015 • Significant relief from the budget caps are unlikely • Budget restrictions will force two zerosum games
• Delays are more likely than outright cancellations • Submarines have the most congressional support, while ICBM’s are most vulnerable to cuts
Minuteman III ICBM
11
