UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED KINGDOM
1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
UNITED KINGDOM - OVERVIEW The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland comprises the countries of England and Scotland, the principality of Wales and the constituent region of Northern Ireland. It covers the island of Great Britain, part of the north of Ireland and a number of small neighboring islands in the Atlantic Ocean. With an area of 243,000 square kilometers (93,000 square miles) the UK is less than half the size of France but with a similar population, now standing at approximately 59.8 million, 7.2 million of whom live in the capital city of London, and 50.1 million of whom live in England.
Literacy levels compare favorably with other developed economies at 99%, with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 95% completing secondary level education in 2003. Overall GDP in 2006 was estimated at US$2.23 billion with GDP per capita at US$37,254.
In theory executive power lies with the Monarch (presently Queen Elizabeth II) but in reality this power is discharged by the government of the country, through a cabinet of ministers chosen by the Prime Minister. Elections take place at least every five years,
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although the prime minister can request the monarch to dissolve parliament and call a general election at any time within this five year period. Government is formed by the party that wins the majority of the 646 seats in the House of Commons (the lower house) and the Prime Minister is chosen by the party in power.
The current Prime Minister of the UK is Tony Blair, who has been the leader of the Labour Party since 1994 and Prime Minister since the Labour Party won the general election of 1997. Now on his third term, Tony Blair has stated that he will stand down as leader before the next general election, with chancellor Gordon Brown expected to replace Blair in summer 2007. The Labour Party currently holds 353 of the 646 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservative Party 196 seats and the Liberal Democrats 63 seats.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of the UK is estimated at 59.8 million, 83.9% of which are resident in England, 8.4% in Scotland, 4.9% in Wales and 2.8% in Northern Ireland. Population growth in the latter half of the 20th century was at 19% (51.3 million in 1951). However, since the mid 1990s net migration has been an increasing growth factor, with over 60% of population growth between 2001 and 2004 accounted for by immigrants. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of over seven million in the next 45 years, taking the number of UK inhabitants up to 67.1 million by 2050.
As with other western countries, the UK has an aging population, mainly due to the large number of people born after WW2 and during the baby boom of the 1960s, compared to birth rates today. The median age of the population today is 39 years and this is forecast to increase to 42.9 by 2050; 1.2% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 29.4% by 2050.
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Figure 1 UK: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
68,000 67,143
60
66,000
% population
65.1
64,000
63,663
40
60.4
63.3
62,000
30
60,000 23.2
20
19.0
58,670
19.8 16.9
16.4
58,000
15.9
10
Total population ('000s)
50
56,000
0
54,000 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS The UK has few mineral deposits but significant energy resources, with petroleum and natural gas reserves in the North Sea and some reserves of coal. Agriculture mostly involves sheep, cattle and dairy farming, with some crops and fruit (25% of land use is arable, 46% meadowland and pasture, 10% forested and 19% urban/wasteland). Although productivity is high, one third of food is imported. Forestry, fishing and manufacture are important industries. However, the economy is dominated by the service industries including banking, insurance, retail, catering and tourism.
Total GDP in the UK is projected to be US$2.23 billion for 2006, with GDP growth of 2.5% in comparison to 1.8% in 2005, and growth of 2.7% is forecast for 2007. Inflation levels are somewhat of a concern, with inflation rising from 2.0% in 2005 to 2.7% in 2006 before falling again to 2.5% in 2007. Overall the performance of the UK economy is impressive, however, and has outperformed most of the other G7 countries in recent years with the exception of
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the USA. Over the past decade there has been continued growth, falling unemployment and relatively low inflation in the country.
Long term issues to be aware of include the effects of a possible overvaluation of house prices, a continuing increase in energy prices, international influences on the strength of the pound sterling and a concern that private saving will not be adequate to support the increasing aging population. However, long term prospects remain good. The account deficit is not a major concern, the exchange rate is valued appropriately, there is a flexible and dynamic labor market and the banking system is well-capitalized and cost-efficient.
Table 1 UK: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 59,267 0.61 0.66 1,105,919 1,018,897
2004 59,467 0.55 0.66 1,164,541 1,050,483
2005 59,668 0.55 0.65 1,209,334 1,069,391
2006p 59,837 0.57 0.65 1,273,215 1,096,126
2007f 60,006 0.57 0.66 1,340,171 1,125,722
1,807,485 1,654,938 30,497 27,924 2.5 2.9 106.5 380,712 304,185
2,133,206 1,753,304 35,872 29,484 3.1 2.1 109.7 451,680 341,596
2,201,473 1,832,792 36,895 30,716 1.8 2.0 112.8 483,017 371,370
2,229,138 1,911,943 37,254 31,953 2.5 2.7 115.8 n/a n/a
2,366,885 2,004,461 39,444 33,404 2.7 2.5 118.8 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 109 daily newspapers in print in the UK in 2004, ten of which are nationals, 91 regional/local and eight free of charge. Total circulation was 17.4 million, down 8% from 2000 levels, but sales revenues of £1.42 billion was 3.6% up from 2000. The top selling daily is The Sun newspaper which has a circulation of 2.4 million, followed by the Daily Mail with a circulation of two million. In 2004, newspaper advertising revenue was US$9,424 million, the
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highest in Europe. The largest newspaper publishing group in 2004 was News International, the proprietor of The Sun and The Times.
In 2004 there were 8,466 magazine titles in the UK, a drop of 4% as compared to 2000, with 37% of revenues derived from advertising and 63% from sales. There were 70 magazine publishers in 2004 with an annual turnover of £344 million, up 5% from 2003. Total print advertising expenditure in the UK amounted to US$24.3 billion in 2004, the highest in Europe and up 87% from 1995. Tobacco advertising is banned by law and there are restrictions on advertising alcohol, OTC drugs and advertising to children.
Internet usage is increasing rapidly in the UK, with penetration estimated at 64%. This represents 37.8 million Internet users, 8.9 million of whom are subscribing to broadband. This is set to increase with increased price competition among providers of these services.
Table 2 UK: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of dailies Number of paid-for non-dailies Number of free non-dailies Number of paid-for Sundays Circulation of dailies ('000s) Circulation of paid-for non-dailies ('000s) Circulation of free non-dailies ('000s) Circulation of paid-for Sundays ('000s) Circulation of free Sundays ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
18,911.7 11,720.3 7,602.1 3,061.8 1,056.4 62.0 232.1
17,087.0 10,877.6 7,050.2 2,851.9 975.5 63.7 238.6
17,917.9 11,112.0 7,246.9 2,811.9 1,053.2 62.0 295.3
20,287.8 12,273.8 7,994.3 2,994.2 1,285.3 60.5 666.5
24,285.2 14,459.6 9,424.2 3,482.4 1,553.0 59.5 1,196.5
108 467 564 21 19,159 6,246 28,133 15,696 n/a
108 435 517 21 19,117 6,313 25,652 15,503 n/a
107 480 550 21 19,186 6,470 25,242 15,192 n/a
107 483 574 22 18,222 6,081 24,898 14,467 479
109 467 521 22 17,485 5,911 24,362 14,374 259
3,275 5,545
3,120 5,342
3,130 5,208
3,229 5,108
3,324 5,142
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
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Figure 2 UK: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
70 63.4 60 53.1 % population
50 44.5 40 30
37.3 31.3 26.2
20
15.9 10.5
10 2.3
0.6
0 2000
2001
2002
5.4 2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The UK print market was valued at UK£18.5 billion (US$33.6 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 3% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 0.3% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 3% in absolute terms and 0.4% in real terms.
Table 3 UK: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
UK£ million, current prices UK£ million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
19,010.3 18,507.9
% change 20052006p 3.0 0.3
CAGR (%) 20012006p 3.0 0.4
16,425.1 18,160.8
18,457.2 18,457.2
$23,651.6
$33,599.5
$33,283.1
-0.9
7.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd Sheetfed offset litho represents the single largest segment of the UK market across print processes, with printing output valued at UK£3.96 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 3.3%
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in absolute terms in 2006. Heatset web offset is the next largest component of offset litho printing with output at UK£3.88 billion, with coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at UK£1.33 billion and UK£958 million respectively in 2005, with letterpress and particularly screen losing market share.
Table 4 UK: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (UK£ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
10,478.3 3,635.6 6,842.7 3,352.9 3,489.8 641.7 2,623.5 533.4 47.0 410.2 559.2 1,131.7 16,425.1
11,142.6 3,961.2 7,181.4 3,296.1 3,885.3 651.3 2,880.4 555.8 40.3 1,333.2 958.4 895.3 18,457.2
11,444.0 4,090.2 7,353.8 3,352.7 4,001.1 688.5 2,912.8 523.2 40.3 1,373.0 1,050.8 977.7 19,010.3
% change 2005-2006p 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 5.7 1.1 -5.9 -0.1 3.0 9.6 9.2 3.0
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.0 2.8 1.4 2.1 -0.4 -3.0 27.3 13.4 -2.9 3.0
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 5 UK: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$15,088.5 5,235.2 9,853.3 4,828.1 5,025.2 924.1 3,777.7 768.1 67.7 590.6 805.3 1,629.6 $23,651.6
$20,284.0 7,210.9 13,073.1 6,000.2 7,072.9 1,185.6 5,243.5 1,011.7 73.4 2,427.0 1,744.6 1,629.7 $33,599.5
$20,036.2 7,161.1 12,875.1 5,870.0 7,005.1 1,205.3 5,099.7 916.0 70.6 2,403.8 1,839.8 1,711.8 $33,283.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2005-2006p -1.2 -0.7 -1.5 -2.2 -1.0 1.7 -2.7 -9.5 -3.9 -1.0 5.5 5.0 -0.9
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 5.8 6.5 5.5 4.0 6.9 5.5 6.2 3.6 0.8 32.4 18.0 1.0 7.1
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of UK£4.433 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 3.4% in 2006. The majority of areas are projected to grow during 2006, with the exception of business forms and corrugated packaging.
Table 6 UK: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (UK£ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 1,345.5 1,255.5 73.8 2,154.9 280.1 1,220.3 1,193.3
% change 20052006p 2.7 2.3 1.6 3.5 2.3 3.8 2.7
CAGR (%) 20012006p 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.1 1.2 5.2 3.8
1,222.2 1,183.6 73.5 1,848.2 264.2 948.7 992.1
1,309.8 1,227.0 72.7 2,081.5 273.7 1,175.5 1,162.4
311.7 78.6 379.5 380.8 545.4 3,898.0 1,879.3 727.3 1,291.4 506.3 3,792.4 16,425.1
391.8 94.7 440.8 292.5 584.6 4,429.3 1,807.6 751.7 1,870.1 595.3 4,325.5 18,457.2
407.9 97.8 451.7 281.9 601.7 4,581.0 1,802.0 760.2 2,018.9 630.0 4,434.7 19,010.3
4.1 3.2 2.5 -3.6 2.9 3.4 -0.3 1.1 8.0 5.8 2.5 3.0
5.5 4.5 3.5 -5.8 2.0 3.3 -0.8 0.9 9.3 4.5 3.2 3.0
3,898.0 1,884.0 2,013.9
4,429.3 2,335.1 2,094.3
4,581.0 2,454.8 2,126.2
3.4 5.1 1.5
3.3 5.4 1.1
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 UK: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $2,355.7 2,198.2 129.2 3,772.8 490.4 2,136.4 2,089.2
% change 20052006p -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -0.4 -1.6 -0.2 -1.3
CAGR (%) 20012006p 6.0 5.2 4.1 7.2 5.2 9.4 7.9
$1,759.9 1,704.3 105.9 2,661.4 380.4 1,366.1 1,428.6
$2,384.3 2,233.6 132.3 3,789.3 498.3 2,139.8 2,116.0
448.9 113.2 546.4 548.3 785.4 5,612.9 2,706.1 1,047.3 1,859.6 729.0 5,460.9 $23,651.6
713.3 172.4 802.4 532.4 1,064.3 8,063.2 3,290.6 1,368.3 3,404.3 1,083.7 7,874.2 $33,599.5
714.1 171.2 790.8 493.6 1,053.5 8,020.4 3,154.9 1,330.9 3,534.6 1,103.1 7,764.3 $33,283.1
0.1 -0.7 -1.4 -7.3 -1.0 -0.5 -4.1 -2.7 3.8 1.8 -1.4 -0.9
9.7 8.6 7.7 -2.1 6.1 7.4 3.1 4.9 13.7 8.6 7.3 7.1
$5,612.9 2,712.9 2,900.0
$8,063.2 4,250.8 3,812.4
$8,020.4 4,297.8 3,722.6
-0.5 1.1 -2.4
7.4 9.6 5.1
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 UK: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
309.1 138.4 156.4 23.7 122.9 42.2 3.2 78.8 114.2 334.7 94.3
% change 2005-06 -3.3 -3.8 -1.2 -2.0 5.0 -16.0 -10.8 9.7 10.9 0.0 3.1
3.8 90.6 89.7 1,507.7
-17.5 4.2 4.9 0.3
2006
316.4 136.1 163.6 28.3 117.5 28.2 1.7 91.9 182.2 340.7 104.3
% change 2006-11 2.4 -1.7 4.6 19.3 -4.4 -33.2 -48.4 16.7 59.6 1.8 10.6
2.4 101.9 96.6 1,607.4
-37.2 12.5 7.7 6.6
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 UK: Printing Machinery (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
168.2 75.3 85.1 12.9 66.9 23.0 1.8 42.9 62.1 182.1 51.3
% change 2005-06 -4.2 -4.8 -2.1 -2.9 4.0 -16.8 -11.7 8.6 9.8 -1.0 2.1
2.1 49.3 48.8 820.4
-18.3 3.2 3.9 -0.7
2006
172.2 74.0 89.0 15.4 63.9 15.3 0.9 50.0 99.2 185.4 56.7
% change 2006-11 2.4 -1.7 4.6 19.3 -4.4 -33.2 -48.4 16.7 59.6 1.8 10.6
1.3 55.5 52.6 874.7
-37.2 12.5 7.7 6.6
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 UK: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
65.6
% change 2005-06 -8.3
242.6 159.3 83.3 14.6 29.0 351.8
31.6 34.1 27.0 19.5 4.8 19.0
2006
% change 2006-11
2011 44.5
-32.1
362.2 273.4 88.8 16.1 29.4 452.3
49.3 71.6 6.6 10.7 1.4 28.6
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 11 UK: Printing Consumables (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
35.7
% change 2005-06 -9.1
132.0 86.7 45.4 7.9 15.8 191.4
30.4 32.9 25.8 18.3 3.8 17.8
2006
% change 2006-11
2011 24.2
-32.1
197.1 148.8 48.3 8.8 16.0 246.1
49.3 71.6 6.6 10.7 1.4 28.6
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 12 UK: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 257.0 210.7 251.5 43.4 183.3 32.9 2.4 95.6 73.2 67.8 1,217.8
% change 2005-06 5.6 4.1 5.4 8.2 3.5 -3.7 -2.5 5.4 12.4 11.7 5.4
2011 283.9 206.9 283.1 45.7 199.8 31.7 2.0 314.4 134.9 57.5 1,559.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2006-11 10.5 -1.8 12.6 5.3 9.0 -3.7 -15.9 228.7 84.3 -15.2 28.1
Table 13 UK: Printing Inks (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 139.9 114.6 136.8 23.6 99.7 17.9 1.3 52.0 39.8 36.9 662.7
% change 2005-06 4.6 3.1 4.4 7.1 2.5 -4.6 -3.4 4.4 11.3 10.7 4.4
2011 154.5 112.6 154.0 24.9 108.7 17.2 1.1 171.1 73.4 31.3 848.8
% change 2006-11 10.5 -1.8 12.6 5.3 9.0 -3.7 -15.9 228.7 84.3 -15.2 28.1
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 UK: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
734.1 1,374.6 1,906.5 1,151.3 940.5
% change 2005-06 0.9 3.3 0.7 2.9 0.5
3,084.9 422.9 2,091.2 1,073.9 2,007.5 14,787.5
2006
761.5 1,563.9 1,964.0 1,289.8 957.7
% change 2006-11 3.7 13.8 3.0 12.0 1.8
1.1 1.8 3.7 3.7
3,516.5 454.2 2,539.8 1,304.3
14.0 7.4 21.5 21.5
1.8 2.0
2,156.5 16,508.2
7.4 11.6
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 UK: Printing Substrates (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
399.5 747.9 1,037.4 626.5 511.8
% change 2005-06 0.0 2.3 -0.2 1.9 -0.5
1,678.6 230.1 1,137.9 584.4 1,092.4 8,046.3
2006
2011
% change 2006-11
414.4 851.0 1,068.6 701.8 521.1
3.7 13.8 3.0 12.0 1.8
0.1 0.8 2.7 2.7
1,913.4 247.2 1,382.0 709.7
14.0 7.4 21.5 21.5
0.8 1.0
1,173.4 8,982.6
7.4 11.6
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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1899 Preston White Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191 (703) 264-7200 © PRIMIR/NPES 2008
INTRODUCTION In today’s global business, print faces constant change and multinational challenges. In order to react intelligently and be proactive printing industry business leaders urgently need worldwide data to reference when making internationally-based business decisions. PRIMIR recently released a series of three reports on the “World Wide Market for Print.” Pira International was commissioned to investigate the key global print markets. This study identified 51 country markets that make up 99% of the global commercial printing industry. The series of reports detail social and economic climate in each region, demographic profiles, advertising trends, internet usage/adoption, print markets and applications, print process share, and market sizing for presses, equipment, consumables and paper. Forecasts are provided through 2011. The report that follows is a summary of data and information from all three reports pertaining to this specific country. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the data is presented in U.S. Dollars, taking into account forecast rates for GDP growth and inflation, constant 2006 exchange rates have been applied. The final report includes a database where statistics are provided for both current and constant U.S. Dollars as well as in local currency (both current and constant).
UNITED KINGDOM - OVERVIEW The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland comprises the countries of England and Scotland, the principality of Wales and the constituent region of Northern Ireland. It covers the island of Great Britain, part of the north of Ireland and a number of small neighboring islands in the Atlantic Ocean. With an area of 243,000 square kilometers (93,000 square miles) the UK is less than half the size of France but with a similar population, now standing at approximately 59.8 million, 7.2 million of whom live in the capital city of London, and 50.1 million of whom live in England.
Literacy levels compare favorably with other developed economies at 99%, with 100% of the population completing primary level education and 95% completing secondary level education in 2003. Overall GDP in 2006 was estimated at US$2.23 billion with GDP per capita at US$37,254.
In theory executive power lies with the Monarch (presently Queen Elizabeth II) but in reality this power is discharged by the government of the country, through a cabinet of ministers chosen by the Prime Minister. Elections take place at least every five years,
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although the prime minister can request the monarch to dissolve parliament and call a general election at any time within this five year period. Government is formed by the party that wins the majority of the 646 seats in the House of Commons (the lower house) and the Prime Minister is chosen by the party in power.
The current Prime Minister of the UK is Tony Blair, who has been the leader of the Labour Party since 1994 and Prime Minister since the Labour Party won the general election of 1997. Now on his third term, Tony Blair has stated that he will stand down as leader before the next general election, with chancellor Gordon Brown expected to replace Blair in summer 2007. The Labour Party currently holds 353 of the 646 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservative Party 196 seats and the Liberal Democrats 63 seats.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS The population of the UK is estimated at 59.8 million, 83.9% of which are resident in England, 8.4% in Scotland, 4.9% in Wales and 2.8% in Northern Ireland. Population growth in the latter half of the 20th century was at 19% (51.3 million in 1951). However, since the mid 1990s net migration has been an increasing growth factor, with over 60% of population growth between 2001 and 2004 accounted for by immigrants. Population projections over the coming years show an expected increase in the populace of over seven million in the next 45 years, taking the number of UK inhabitants up to 67.1 million by 2050.
As with other western countries, the UK has an aging population, mainly due to the large number of people born after WW2 and during the baby boom of the 1960s, compared to birth rates today. The median age of the population today is 39 years and this is forecast to increase to 42.9 by 2050; 1.2% of the population is currently over the age of 60 and this is forecast to increase to 29.4% by 2050.
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Figure 1 UK: Long-term Demographic Trends by Age Group, 2000-2050 0-14
15-64
65+
Total population
70
68,000 67,143
60
66,000
% population
65.1
64,000
63,663
40
60.4
63.3
62,000
30
60,000 23.2
20
19.0
58,670
19.8 16.9
16.4
58,000
15.9
10
Total population ('000s)
50
56,000
0
54,000 2000
2025
2050
Source: United Nations
ECONOMIC TRENDS The UK has few mineral deposits but significant energy resources, with petroleum and natural gas reserves in the North Sea and some reserves of coal. Agriculture mostly involves sheep, cattle and dairy farming, with some crops and fruit (25% of land use is arable, 46% meadowland and pasture, 10% forested and 19% urban/wasteland). Although productivity is high, one third of food is imported. Forestry, fishing and manufacture are important industries. However, the economy is dominated by the service industries including banking, insurance, retail, catering and tourism.
Total GDP in the UK is projected to be US$2.23 billion for 2006, with GDP growth of 2.5% in comparison to 1.8% in 2005, and growth of 2.7% is forecast for 2007. Inflation levels are somewhat of a concern, with inflation rising from 2.0% in 2005 to 2.7% in 2006 before falling again to 2.5% in 2007. Overall the performance of the UK economy is impressive, however, and has outperformed most of the other G7 countries in recent years with the exception of
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the USA. Over the past decade there has been continued growth, falling unemployment and relatively low inflation in the country.
Long term issues to be aware of include the effects of a possible overvaluation of house prices, a continuing increase in energy prices, international influences on the strength of the pound sterling and a concern that private saving will not be adequate to support the increasing aging population. However, long term prospects remain good. The account deficit is not a major concern, the exchange rate is valued appropriately, there is a flexible and dynamic labor market and the banking system is well-capitalized and cost-efficient.
Table 1 UK: Key Economic Indicators, 2003-2007 Indicator Population ('000s) Exchange rate (=US$1) Purchasing power parity (=US$1) GDP (local currency, millions, current prices) GDP (local currency, millions, constant 2000 prices) GDP (current, US$ million) GDP, PPP (current, US$ million) GDP per capita (US$) GDP per capita, PPP (US$) GDP growth (%) GDP deflator (%) Consumer price index (2000=100) Imports (US$ million) Exports (US$ million)
2003 59,267 0.61 0.66 1,105,919 1,018,897
2004 59,467 0.55 0.66 1,164,541 1,050,483
2005 59,668 0.55 0.65 1,209,334 1,069,391
2006p 59,837 0.57 0.65 1,273,215 1,096,126
2007f 60,006 0.57 0.66 1,340,171 1,125,722
1,807,485 1,654,938 30,497 27,924 2.5 2.9 106.5 380,712 304,185
2,133,206 1,753,304 35,872 29,484 3.1 2.1 109.7 451,680 341,596
2,201,473 1,832,792 36,895 30,716 1.8 2.0 112.8 483,017 371,370
2,229,138 1,911,943 37,254 31,953 2.5 2.7 115.8 n/a n/a
2,366,885 2,004,461 39,444 33,404 2.7 2.5 118.8 n/a n/a
Note: p=projected; f=forecast Source: Pira International, Ltd calculations from the United Nations (population data), International Monetary Fund (economic data)
THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT There were 109 daily newspapers in print in the UK in 2004, ten of which are nationals, 91 regional/local and eight free of charge. Total circulation was 17.4 million, down 8% from 2000 levels, but sales revenues of £1.42 billion was 3.6% up from 2000. The top selling daily is The Sun newspaper which has a circulation of 2.4 million, followed by the Daily Mail with a circulation of two million. In 2004, newspaper advertising revenue was US$9,424 million, the
4
highest in Europe. The largest newspaper publishing group in 2004 was News International, the proprietor of The Sun and The Times.
In 2004 there were 8,466 magazine titles in the UK, a drop of 4% as compared to 2000, with 37% of revenues derived from advertising and 63% from sales. There were 70 magazine publishers in 2004 with an annual turnover of £344 million, up 5% from 2003. Total print advertising expenditure in the UK amounted to US$24.3 billion in 2004, the highest in Europe and up 87% from 1995. Tobacco advertising is banned by law and there are restrictions on advertising alcohol, OTC drugs and advertising to children.
Internet usage is increasing rapidly in the UK, with penetration estimated at 64%. This represents 37.8 million Internet users, 8.9 million of whom are subscribing to broadband. This is set to increase with increased price competition among providers of these services.
Table 2 UK: Advertising and Print Media Trends, 2000-2004 Advertising media Above-the-line advertising (media sales) Total advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper advertising expenditure (US$ million) Magazine advertising expenditure (US$ million) Outdoor advertising expenditure (US$ million) Print's share of advertising expenditure (%) Internet advertising expenditure (US$ million) Newspaper trends Number of dailies Number of paid-for non-dailies Number of free non-dailies Number of paid-for Sundays Circulation of dailies ('000s) Circulation of paid-for non-dailies ('000s) Circulation of free non-dailies ('000s) Circulation of paid-for Sundays ('000s) Circulation of free Sundays ('000s) Magazine trends Number of consumer titles Number of business-to-business titles
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
18,911.7 11,720.3 7,602.1 3,061.8 1,056.4 62.0 232.1
17,087.0 10,877.6 7,050.2 2,851.9 975.5 63.7 238.6
17,917.9 11,112.0 7,246.9 2,811.9 1,053.2 62.0 295.3
20,287.8 12,273.8 7,994.3 2,994.2 1,285.3 60.5 666.5
24,285.2 14,459.6 9,424.2 3,482.4 1,553.0 59.5 1,196.5
108 467 564 21 19,159 6,246 28,133 15,696 n/a
108 435 517 21 19,117 6,313 25,652 15,503 n/a
107 480 550 21 19,186 6,470 25,242 15,192 n/a
107 483 574 22 18,222 6,081 24,898 14,467 479
109 467 521 22 17,485 5,911 24,362 14,374 259
3,275 5,545
3,120 5,342
3,130 5,208
3,229 5,108
3,324 5,142
Source: World Advertising Trends, World Press Trends, World Magazine Trends
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Figure 2 UK: Trends in Internet Usage, 2000-2005 Internet users (%)
Broadband penetration (%)
70 63.4 60 53.1 % population
50 44.5 40 30
37.3 31.3 26.2
20
15.9 10.5
10 2.3
0.6
0 2000
2001
2002
5.4 2003
2004
2005
Source: Pira International Ltd calculations from Internetworldstats.com (www.Internetworldstats.com); OECD (broadband penetration)
PRINT MARKET TRENDS The UK print market was valued at UK£18.5 billion (US$33.6 billion) in 2005, projected to grow by 3% in absolute terms in 2006 and by 0.3% in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation. During the period 2001-2006, the market grew at an average annual rate of 3% in absolute terms and 0.4% in real terms.
Table 3 UK: Print Market Trends, 2001-2006
UK£ million, current prices UK£ million, constant 2005 prices US$ million, current prices
2001
2005
2006p
19,010.3 18,507.9
% change 20052006p 3.0 0.3
CAGR (%) 20012006p 3.0 0.4
16,425.1 18,160.8
18,457.2 18,457.2
$23,651.6
$33,599.5
$33,283.1
-0.9
7.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd Sheetfed offset litho represents the single largest segment of the UK market across print processes, with printing output valued at UK£3.96 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 3.3%
6
in absolute terms in 2006. Heatset web offset is the next largest component of offset litho printing with output at UK£3.88 billion, with coldset web offset losing market share. The fastest growing areas of the market are Electrophotography and inkjet at UK£1.33 billion and UK£958 million respectively in 2005, with letterpress and particularly screen losing market share.
Table 4 UK: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (UK£ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
10,478.3 3,635.6 6,842.7 3,352.9 3,489.8 641.7 2,623.5 533.4 47.0 410.2 559.2 1,131.7 16,425.1
11,142.6 3,961.2 7,181.4 3,296.1 3,885.3 651.3 2,880.4 555.8 40.3 1,333.2 958.4 895.3 18,457.2
11,444.0 4,090.2 7,353.8 3,352.7 4,001.1 688.5 2,912.8 523.2 40.3 1,373.0 1,050.8 977.7 19,010.3
% change 2005-2006p 2.7 3.3 2.4 1.7 3.0 5.7 1.1 -5.9 -0.1 3.0 9.6 9.2 3.0
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.0 2.8 1.4 2.1 -0.4 -3.0 27.3 13.4 -2.9 3.0
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 5 UK: Print Market Trends by Print Process, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Process Offset litho Sheetfed Web Coldset Heatset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2001
2005
2006p
$15,088.5 5,235.2 9,853.3 4,828.1 5,025.2 924.1 3,777.7 768.1 67.7 590.6 805.3 1,629.6 $23,651.6
$20,284.0 7,210.9 13,073.1 6,000.2 7,072.9 1,185.6 5,243.5 1,011.7 73.4 2,427.0 1,744.6 1,629.7 $33,599.5
$20,036.2 7,161.1 12,875.1 5,870.0 7,005.1 1,205.3 5,099.7 916.0 70.6 2,403.8 1,839.8 1,711.8 $33,283.1
Note: p=projected Source: Pira International Ltd
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% change 2005-2006p -1.2 -0.7 -1.5 -2.2 -1.0 1.7 -2.7 -9.5 -3.9 -1.0 5.5 5.0 -0.9
CAGR (%) 2001-2006p 5.8 6.5 5.5 4.0 6.9 5.5 6.2 3.6 0.8 32.4 18.0 1.0 7.1
Across end-use areas, packaging represents the single largest product sector with sales of UK£4.433 billion in 2005, projected to grow by 3.4% in 2006. The majority of areas are projected to grow during 2006, with the exception of business forms and corrugated packaging.
Table 6 UK: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (UK£ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p 1,345.5 1,255.5 73.8 2,154.9 280.1 1,220.3 1,193.3
% change 20052006p 2.7 2.3 1.6 3.5 2.3 3.8 2.7
CAGR (%) 20012006p 1.9 1.2 0.1 3.1 1.2 5.2 3.8
1,222.2 1,183.6 73.5 1,848.2 264.2 948.7 992.1
1,309.8 1,227.0 72.7 2,081.5 273.7 1,175.5 1,162.4
311.7 78.6 379.5 380.8 545.4 3,898.0 1,879.3 727.3 1,291.4 506.3 3,792.4 16,425.1
391.8 94.7 440.8 292.5 584.6 4,429.3 1,807.6 751.7 1,870.1 595.3 4,325.5 18,457.2
407.9 97.8 451.7 281.9 601.7 4,581.0 1,802.0 760.2 2,018.9 630.0 4,434.7 19,010.3
4.1 3.2 2.5 -3.6 2.9 3.4 -0.3 1.1 8.0 5.8 2.5 3.0
5.5 4.5 3.5 -5.8 2.0 3.3 -0.8 0.9 9.3 4.5 3.2 3.0
3,898.0 1,884.0 2,013.9
4,429.3 2,335.1 2,094.3
4,581.0 2,454.8 2,126.2
3.4 5.1 1.5
3.3 5.4 1.1
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 7 UK: Print Market Trends by Product Sector, 2001-2006 (US$ million, current prices) Product Books Catalogs Directories Magazines Newspapers Direct mail Brochures & pamphlets, other promotional print* Inserts Coupons, tickets & tape printing Posters & banners** Business forms Financial & legal printing*** Packaging - Corrugated & solid fiber - Cartons - Flexibles Labels Others Total Packaging - Consumer packaging - Industrial packaging
2001
2005
2006p $2,355.7 2,198.2 129.2 3,772.8 490.4 2,136.4 2,089.2
% change 20052006p -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -0.4 -1.6 -0.2 -1.3
CAGR (%) 20012006p 6.0 5.2 4.1 7.2 5.2 9.4 7.9
$1,759.9 1,704.3 105.9 2,661.4 380.4 1,366.1 1,428.6
$2,384.3 2,233.6 132.3 3,789.3 498.3 2,139.8 2,116.0
448.9 113.2 546.4 548.3 785.4 5,612.9 2,706.1 1,047.3 1,859.6 729.0 5,460.9 $23,651.6
713.3 172.4 802.4 532.4 1,064.3 8,063.2 3,290.6 1,368.3 3,404.3 1,083.7 7,874.2 $33,599.5
714.1 171.2 790.8 493.6 1,053.5 8,020.4 3,154.9 1,330.9 3,534.6 1,103.1 7,764.3 $33,283.1
0.1 -0.7 -1.4 -7.3 -1.0 -0.5 -4.1 -2.7 3.8 1.8 -1.4 -0.9
9.7 8.6 7.7 -2.1 6.1 7.4 3.1 4.9 13.7 8.6 7.3 7.1
$5,612.9 2,712.9 2,900.0
$8,063.2 4,250.8 3,812.4
$8,020.4 4,297.8 3,722.6
-0.5 1.1 -2.4
7.4 9.6 5.1
Note: p=projected; *excl. financial publications, etc; *plus other point-of-sale advertising materials; ***inc. financial reports, etc Source: Pira International Ltd
MACHINERY, INK, CONSUMABLES AND SUBSTRATES Given the speed of product development and the rapid pace of technology transfer, most of the key developments for printing presses and processes over the next five years will be seen in all of the main regions of the world, despite the fact that the rate of adoption varies between developed and developing regions.
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Table 8 UK: Printing Machinery (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
309.1 138.4 156.4 23.7 122.9 42.2 3.2 78.8 114.2 334.7 94.3
% change 2005-06 -3.3 -3.8 -1.2 -2.0 5.0 -16.0 -10.8 9.7 10.9 0.0 3.1
3.8 90.6 89.7 1,507.7
-17.5 4.2 4.9 0.3
2006
316.4 136.1 163.6 28.3 117.5 28.2 1.7 91.9 182.2 340.7 104.3
% change 2006-11 2.4 -1.7 4.6 19.3 -4.4 -33.2 -48.4 16.7 59.6 1.8 10.6
2.4 101.9 96.6 1,607.4
-37.2 12.5 7.7 6.6
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 9 UK: Printing Machinery (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Spares Prepress - Film imagesetters - Platesetters Postpress Total
168.2 75.3 85.1 12.9 66.9 23.0 1.8 42.9 62.1 182.1 51.3
% change 2005-06 -4.2 -4.8 -2.1 -2.9 4.0 -16.8 -11.7 8.6 9.8 -1.0 2.1
2.1 49.3 48.8 820.4
-18.3 3.2 3.9 -0.7
2006
172.2 74.0 89.0 15.4 63.9 15.3 0.9 50.0 99.2 185.4 56.7
% change 2006-11 2.4 -1.7 4.6 19.3 -4.4 -33.2 -48.4 16.7 59.6 1.8 10.6
1.3 55.5 52.6 874.7
-37.2 12.5 7.7 6.6
2011
Source: Pira International Ltd
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Table 10 UK: Printing Consumables (US$ million, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
65.6
% change 2005-06 -8.3
242.6 159.3 83.3 14.6 29.0 351.8
31.6 34.1 27.0 19.5 4.8 19.0
2006
% change 2006-11
2011 44.5
-32.1
362.2 273.4 88.8 16.1 29.4 452.3
49.3 71.6 6.6 10.7 1.4 28.6
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 11 UK: Printing Consumables (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Graphic arts film All aluminum plates - Metal CtP - Conventional Polyester/paper Flexo plates Total
35.7
% change 2005-06 -9.1
132.0 86.7 45.4 7.9 15.8 191.4
30.4 32.9 25.8 18.3 3.8 17.8
2006
% change 2006-11
2011 24.2
-32.1
197.1 148.8 48.3 8.8 16.0 246.1
49.3 71.6 6.6 10.7 1.4 28.6
Source: Pira International Ltd Table 12 UK: Printing Inks (US$ million, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 257.0 210.7 251.5 43.4 183.3 32.9 2.4 95.6 73.2 67.8 1,217.8
% change 2005-06 5.6 4.1 5.4 8.2 3.5 -3.7 -2.5 5.4 12.4 11.7 5.4
2011 283.9 206.9 283.1 45.7 199.8 31.7 2.0 314.4 134.9 57.5 1,559.9
Source: Pira International Ltd
11
% change 2006-11 10.5 -1.8 12.6 5.3 9.0 -3.7 -15.9 228.7 84.3 -15.2 28.1
Table 13 UK: Printing Inks (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Sheetfed offset Coldset web offset Heatset web offset Gravure Flexo Screen Letterpress Electrophotography Inkjet Other Total
2006 139.9 114.6 136.8 23.6 99.7 17.9 1.3 52.0 39.8 36.9 662.7
% change 2005-06 4.6 3.1 4.4 7.1 2.5 -4.6 -3.4 4.4 11.3 10.7 4.4
2011 154.5 112.6 154.0 24.9 108.7 17.2 1.1 171.1 73.4 31.3 848.8
% change 2006-11 10.5 -1.8 12.6 5.3 9.0 -3.7 -15.9 228.7 84.3 -15.2 28.1
Source: Pira International Ltd
Table 14 UK: Printing Substrates (US$ million, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
734.1 1,374.6 1,906.5 1,151.3 940.5
% change 2005-06 0.9 3.3 0.7 2.9 0.5
3,084.9 422.9 2,091.2 1,073.9 2,007.5 14,787.5
2006
761.5 1,563.9 1,964.0 1,289.8 957.7
% change 2006-11 3.7 13.8 3.0 12.0 1.8
1.1 1.8 3.7 3.7
3,516.5 454.2 2,539.8 1,304.3
14.0 7.4 21.5 21.5
1.8 2.0
2,156.5 16,508.2
7.4 11.6
Source: Pira International Ltd
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2011
Table 15 UK: Printing Substrates (UK£ millions, current prices) Sector Uncoated mechanical Coated mechanical Uncoated woodfree Coated woodfree Newsprint Packaging paper & board Other paper Films Foils Other Packaging substrates Total
399.5 747.9 1,037.4 626.5 511.8
% change 2005-06 0.0 2.3 -0.2 1.9 -0.5
1,678.6 230.1 1,137.9 584.4 1,092.4 8,046.3
2006
2011
% change 2006-11
414.4 851.0 1,068.6 701.8 521.1
3.7 13.8 3.0 12.0 1.8
0.1 0.8 2.7 2.7
1,913.4 247.2 1,382.0 709.7
14.0 7.4 21.5 21.5
0.8 1.0
1,173.4 8,982.6
7.4 11.6
Source: Pira International Ltd
For more comprehensive information about the global printing industry, please refer to the three PRIMIR reports “World Wide Market for Print” (Phase I, Phase II and Final). Visit http://www.primir.org/past_primir_studies.html for descriptions, tables of contents, and ordering information.
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