Utility Scale Solar Power for Saskatchewan
Utility Scale Solar Power for Saskatchewan Presentation to the The Standing Committee on Crown and Central Agencies Inquiry into the Province's Energy Needs Wade Zawalski October 16, 2009
Saskatchewan’s Solar Resource • Saskatchewan receives the most solar radiation annually in Canada • Solar insolation for Regina is 1361 kWh/kW, even more than Rome which has an annual value of 1283 kWh/kW
Source: NRCAN
Saskatchewan’s Solar Resource Mean Daily Daily Solar Insolation of Canadian Provinces (kWh /m2) 5.5 Mean daily Insolation for latitiude tilt (kWh/m2)
• Assuming identical system costs – including module, installation, land and taxes - Saskatchewan has the most favourable solar economics in Canada. • The same solar PV module would produce 18% more electrical energy in Saskatchewan than in Ontario over a one year period.
5 4.5
4 3.5 3 2.5 2
Source: NRCAN 2009
World Solar Insolation Map
Source: Sunwize World Insolation Map 2004
How does Saskatchewan Compare?
Growth of PV in Canada 1.2
1
kW Installed
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Source: NRCAN 2009
Cumulative PV (kW)Installed in Canada 1992 – 2011
Ontario Feed-In Tariff Program • Effective Oct. 1, 2009 • Streamlined application process • No caps on program • Capacity allocation exempt depending on local grid interconnection • Domestic content requirements -50% for projects to 2010 and 60% after • Additional incentive for aboriginal and community group projects
Type of Solar PV System
Payment per kWh
Any type ≤10 kW
$0.82
Rooftop > 10 ≤ 250 kW
$0.71
Rooftop > 250 ≤ 500 kW
$0.64
Rooftop > 500 kW
$0.54
Ground Mounted2 ≤ 10 MW
$0.44
Solar Energy Technology
• Saskatchewan’s climate makes Photovoltaics (PV) preferable to Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Technologies
Competing Photovoltaic Technologies • Different types of PV technology are competing with each other for market share • Crystalline Technologies • Mono Crystalline silicon • Poly-Crystalline silicon
• Thin Film Technologies • Amorphous silicon • Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Crystalline Photovoltaics • Pros: – Dominate the current market – High efficiency – Reliable long life (>25 years)
• Cons: – Complex to manufacture – Require assembly into panels – High silicon content (very expensive material)
Thin Film Photovoltaics • Pros: – Reliable long life – Rapidly improving technology – Use ultra thin layers of material – Work in lower more diffuse light conditions
• Cons: – Less efficient (need to be bigger for same energy) – Technology is not mature
Components of a PV System • Basic PV system includes – PV modules – Inverter – Mounting hardware – Cabling – Metering
• Traditional rule of thumb is that installed PV system cost is twice that of PV module for residential and less for large scale installations
Cost of Solar Modules • Expressed as cost per peak watt ($/W) • Related to: – Material inputs used to manufacture (silicon, glass, etc.) – Capital cost of manufacturing equipment – Manufacturing complexity – Efficiency of technology – Scale of manufacturing
PV Installed Canadian Price Trends •
Turnkey prices (CAD) of typical applications from 1999-2008 show significant price drops (source: NRCAN 2009 Price Survey)
PV Price Trends in Canada Standard Average Price of Solar Modules in Canada ($/Wp)
14
12
Balance of System 12
PV Module
10
10
Price ($/Wp)
8
6
8
6
4 4 2
2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
Year
Source: NRCAN
Solar Buzz Monthly Market Survey • Solar Buzz (solarbuzz.com) is a leading US solar industry market research and consultancy firm • The company has been tracking retail, commercial and industrial solar electricity prices since 2000 • 80% of data is collected from US commercial and industrial sources • Data is based upon a survey of 70-80 companies surveyed through the internet • Financing cost assumed to be 5% and no rebate programs have been built into the data • Taxes are not included in the electricity price
Solar Electricity Prices – Oct. 2009
PV Trends in Europe • In Europe, solar electricity is now competitive with peak power in sunnier high cost electric markets • As prices drop solar advantage will increase • Market subsidies will not be necessary indefinitely Source: EPIA
PV Trends in Europe • Solar electricity is already competitive in parts of the US with higher rates • As PV installations proliferate, this will only improve Source: NREL
Improved PV Technology is Helping to Reduce Costs
Source: NREL
Investment in Solar Energy • Total Global Investment levels are reaching $20 Billion annually EXCLUDING government R&D and project finance
Global PV Production Trends
Source: Robert Margolis, NREL 2009
Solar Electricity is Competitive in 20% of the US Electric Market with Existing Incentives
In 2015 with 1%/yr Increase in prices, Solar will be Competitive for 60% of Residential Electricity Sales • Competitive 468 of 1000 largest utilities accounting for 60% of residential market • 99% of electricity sales be within $.05/kW
First Solar Inc. • CdTe Thin Film Technology • First Solar was formed in 1999 and launched production of commercial products in 2002 • First Solar has achieved the lowest manufacturing cost per watt in the industry, $.87/watt for the second quarter of 2009, having broken the $1 per watt cost barrier in 2008
nanoSolar • CdTe Technology using printing press technology on aluminum • Private (pre-IPO) but has publically announce cost per watt < $1.00 • Analysts speculate this could reach
Saskatchewan’s Solar Resource • Saskatchewan receives the most solar radiation annually in Canada • Solar insolation for Regina is 1361 kWh/kW, even more than Rome which has an annual value of 1283 kWh/kW
Source: NRCAN
Saskatchewan’s Solar Resource Mean Daily Daily Solar Insolation of Canadian Provinces (kWh /m2) 5.5 Mean daily Insolation for latitiude tilt (kWh/m2)
• Assuming identical system costs – including module, installation, land and taxes - Saskatchewan has the most favourable solar economics in Canada. • The same solar PV module would produce 18% more electrical energy in Saskatchewan than in Ontario over a one year period.
5 4.5
4 3.5 3 2.5 2
Source: NRCAN 2009
World Solar Insolation Map
Source: Sunwize World Insolation Map 2004
How does Saskatchewan Compare?
Growth of PV in Canada 1.2
1
kW Installed
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Year
Source: NRCAN 2009
Cumulative PV (kW)Installed in Canada 1992 – 2011
Ontario Feed-In Tariff Program • Effective Oct. 1, 2009 • Streamlined application process • No caps on program • Capacity allocation exempt depending on local grid interconnection • Domestic content requirements -50% for projects to 2010 and 60% after • Additional incentive for aboriginal and community group projects
Type of Solar PV System
Payment per kWh
Any type ≤10 kW
$0.82
Rooftop > 10 ≤ 250 kW
$0.71
Rooftop > 250 ≤ 500 kW
$0.64
Rooftop > 500 kW
$0.54
Ground Mounted2 ≤ 10 MW
$0.44
Solar Energy Technology
• Saskatchewan’s climate makes Photovoltaics (PV) preferable to Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Technologies
Competing Photovoltaic Technologies • Different types of PV technology are competing with each other for market share • Crystalline Technologies • Mono Crystalline silicon • Poly-Crystalline silicon
• Thin Film Technologies • Amorphous silicon • Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Crystalline Photovoltaics • Pros: – Dominate the current market – High efficiency – Reliable long life (>25 years)
• Cons: – Complex to manufacture – Require assembly into panels – High silicon content (very expensive material)
Thin Film Photovoltaics • Pros: – Reliable long life – Rapidly improving technology – Use ultra thin layers of material – Work in lower more diffuse light conditions
• Cons: – Less efficient (need to be bigger for same energy) – Technology is not mature
Components of a PV System • Basic PV system includes – PV modules – Inverter – Mounting hardware – Cabling – Metering
• Traditional rule of thumb is that installed PV system cost is twice that of PV module for residential and less for large scale installations
Cost of Solar Modules • Expressed as cost per peak watt ($/W) • Related to: – Material inputs used to manufacture (silicon, glass, etc.) – Capital cost of manufacturing equipment – Manufacturing complexity – Efficiency of technology – Scale of manufacturing
PV Installed Canadian Price Trends •
Turnkey prices (CAD) of typical applications from 1999-2008 show significant price drops (source: NRCAN 2009 Price Survey)
PV Price Trends in Canada Standard Average Price of Solar Modules in Canada ($/Wp)
14
12
Balance of System 12
PV Module
10
10
Price ($/Wp)
8
6
8
6
4 4 2
2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
Year
Source: NRCAN
Solar Buzz Monthly Market Survey • Solar Buzz (solarbuzz.com) is a leading US solar industry market research and consultancy firm • The company has been tracking retail, commercial and industrial solar electricity prices since 2000 • 80% of data is collected from US commercial and industrial sources • Data is based upon a survey of 70-80 companies surveyed through the internet • Financing cost assumed to be 5% and no rebate programs have been built into the data • Taxes are not included in the electricity price
Solar Electricity Prices – Oct. 2009
PV Trends in Europe • In Europe, solar electricity is now competitive with peak power in sunnier high cost electric markets • As prices drop solar advantage will increase • Market subsidies will not be necessary indefinitely Source: EPIA
PV Trends in Europe • Solar electricity is already competitive in parts of the US with higher rates • As PV installations proliferate, this will only improve Source: NREL
Improved PV Technology is Helping to Reduce Costs
Source: NREL
Investment in Solar Energy • Total Global Investment levels are reaching $20 Billion annually EXCLUDING government R&D and project finance
Global PV Production Trends
Source: Robert Margolis, NREL 2009
Solar Electricity is Competitive in 20% of the US Electric Market with Existing Incentives
In 2015 with 1%/yr Increase in prices, Solar will be Competitive for 60% of Residential Electricity Sales • Competitive 468 of 1000 largest utilities accounting for 60% of residential market • 99% of electricity sales be within $.05/kW
First Solar Inc. • CdTe Thin Film Technology • First Solar was formed in 1999 and launched production of commercial products in 2002 • First Solar has achieved the lowest manufacturing cost per watt in the industry, $.87/watt for the second quarter of 2009, having broken the $1 per watt cost barrier in 2008
nanoSolar • CdTe Technology using printing press technology on aluminum • Private (pre-IPO) but has publically announce cost per watt < $1.00 • Analysts speculate this could reach
