Waiting List Data
Housing Market Summary North East Region
Introduction This issue will focus on the following areas: • • • •
Waiting List Data House Prices and Affordability House building New Households
Waiting List Data Between 2009 and 2010, Communities and Local Government data shows that the North East saw a 5,574 (-6.8%) reduction in the number of people on local authority housing waiting lists – the second year running there has been a fall. While reductions took place in every sub-region with the exception of Tyne & Wear, the overall regional fall is being driven by that in County Durham (-25%), where there had been an increase between 2008 and 2009. Figure 1 shows the number on social housing waiting lists for each sub-region from 2003. Figure 1: Waiting Lists 2003-2010
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The increase in Tyne & Wear is being driven by a 52.7% increase in South Tyneside, although there was also a 49.2% decrease in North Tyneside. There were 13,400 local authority lettings in the North East in 2009/10. This represents a 3.1% fall on the previous year. House Prices The housing market in the region continues to show decline. Apart from a blip between June and July, house prices have fallen from May 2010. Data provided by HM Land Registry shows that the overall average house price in the region for the final quarter of 2010 stood at £108,041 – down from £110,742 in the corresponding quarter of 2009 – a decrease of 2.4%. Table 1 below shows average house prices by dwelling type for the final quarter of 2010. The table shows that prices for all property types are falling at a similar proportionate rate (0.7% between October and December) and flatted properties continue to outstrip terraced properties. Table 1: Average North East house prices by property type (£) Flat/ SemiOverall Detached Detached Terraced Maisonette Oct-10
108,479
201,710
106,696
72,974
74,597
Nov-10
107,957
200,740
106,183
72,624
74,239
Dec-10
107,688
200,240
105,918
72,443
74,054
Notwithstanding this overall picture and as Figure 2 shows, the sub-regional breakdown varies somewhat. Different dwelling types appear to vary in demand in the different sub-regions. For instance, terraced properties in both Tyne & Wear (£93,032) and Northumberland (£86,374) cost on average more than flats (£77,691 and £67,676 respectively).
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Figure 2: Property prices by sub-region
Sales Volumes At the time of writing data is not available from HM Land Registry for the sales volumes for December 2010. However, indications from October and November are of falling sales in the region and the sub-regions. Compared to the corresponding months of 2009, sales in October and November fell by 6.4% and 5.2% respectively. The picture is a similar on in the sub-regions with combined average sales for October and November falling compared to 2009 figures by an average of 8.6% in Tyne and Wear, 4.9% in County Durham, 4.1% in Tees Valley and 2.2% in Northumberland. House building Inside Housing reports on house building completions in England hitting a record low in 2010. Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) figures show completions being down 13.2% on 2009 figures while starts are up 31.9% over the same period. There is a different picture in the North East, however. The 4,660 building starts that took place between January and December represent a 44.7% increase on the previous twelve months, while there was also a 3.2% increase in completions. Generally a slower quarter for building starts, the final quarter of 2010 showed a decrease in new housing starts on the previous quarter (-43.8%) but a 2.8% (20 homes) increase on the corresponding quarter of 2009. After a relatively dramatic downturn in building starts and completions in the early part of 2008, figures have shown a levelling off since. Compared with the corresponding
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quarter of 2009, building completions are down 6.6% (90 homes). Figure 4 below shows house building from 2007. The vast majority of the 1,290 completions (81.4%) were in the private sector with 17.1% built by RSLs and 1.6% by local authorities. Building starts in the region stood at 730 with 83.6% being in the private sector. Figure 4: North East House Building Starts and Completions 2007-2010
New Households New-build alone is not likely to meet the probable demand created by the formation of new households in the region. By 2013 household numbers are projected to increase by 43,000 in the region; a 3.9% rise on those in 2008. This is compared with a 5.2% growth for the whole of England (DCLG). In terms of the number of households being formed between 2008 and 2013, greatest increases are set to take place in Tyne and Wear (19,000) and Tees Valley (11,000). However, the greatest proportionate increase is projected to take place in County Durham (4.2% on 2008 numbers). The 1,000 extra households projected in the former district of Berwick represents an 8.3% proportionate increase – the highest proportionate growth in the region, while the greatest numerical increase will take place in Newcastle (6,000). Vacant Private Dwellings Almost half of this projected demand could be met by bringing empty homes back into use. HSSA data showed that in 2009 there were 22,476 privately owned dwellings empty for more than six months in the North East (2.6% of the private stock). Of these 2.2% were vacant for regeneration or other housing schemes. Almost two-thirds of these homes were found in Tyne and Wear (37.3%) and County Durham (28.3%), while almost one-quarter were found in Tees Valley (24.6%) and 9.8% in Northumberland. 4
Over half of the empty private homes in Tyne and Wear could be found in Gateshead (29.6%) and Sunderland (28.5%). Elsewhere, Middlesbrough (29.7%), Easington (28.5%) and Wansbeck (21.5%) had the highest proportions of empty private dwellings in their respective sub-regions. Tees Valley’s private stock is most affected by regeneration activity. The 247 private dwellings vacant due to regeneration represents 4.5% of the total empty private dwellings in the sub-region. Endnote The next report will concentrate on the first quarter of 2011 and will be available to all NHC members. If you have any questions or queries regarding this document, please contact Barry Turnbull at Northern Housing Consortium on 0191 5661030 or at [email protected]. Alternatively visit our website at www.northern-consortium.org.uk.
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Introduction This issue will focus on the following areas: • • • •
Waiting List Data House Prices and Affordability House building New Households
Waiting List Data Between 2009 and 2010, Communities and Local Government data shows that the North East saw a 5,574 (-6.8%) reduction in the number of people on local authority housing waiting lists – the second year running there has been a fall. While reductions took place in every sub-region with the exception of Tyne & Wear, the overall regional fall is being driven by that in County Durham (-25%), where there had been an increase between 2008 and 2009. Figure 1 shows the number on social housing waiting lists for each sub-region from 2003. Figure 1: Waiting Lists 2003-2010
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The increase in Tyne & Wear is being driven by a 52.7% increase in South Tyneside, although there was also a 49.2% decrease in North Tyneside. There were 13,400 local authority lettings in the North East in 2009/10. This represents a 3.1% fall on the previous year. House Prices The housing market in the region continues to show decline. Apart from a blip between June and July, house prices have fallen from May 2010. Data provided by HM Land Registry shows that the overall average house price in the region for the final quarter of 2010 stood at £108,041 – down from £110,742 in the corresponding quarter of 2009 – a decrease of 2.4%. Table 1 below shows average house prices by dwelling type for the final quarter of 2010. The table shows that prices for all property types are falling at a similar proportionate rate (0.7% between October and December) and flatted properties continue to outstrip terraced properties. Table 1: Average North East house prices by property type (£) Flat/ SemiOverall Detached Detached Terraced Maisonette Oct-10
108,479
201,710
106,696
72,974
74,597
Nov-10
107,957
200,740
106,183
72,624
74,239
Dec-10
107,688
200,240
105,918
72,443
74,054
Notwithstanding this overall picture and as Figure 2 shows, the sub-regional breakdown varies somewhat. Different dwelling types appear to vary in demand in the different sub-regions. For instance, terraced properties in both Tyne & Wear (£93,032) and Northumberland (£86,374) cost on average more than flats (£77,691 and £67,676 respectively).
2
Figure 2: Property prices by sub-region
Sales Volumes At the time of writing data is not available from HM Land Registry for the sales volumes for December 2010. However, indications from October and November are of falling sales in the region and the sub-regions. Compared to the corresponding months of 2009, sales in October and November fell by 6.4% and 5.2% respectively. The picture is a similar on in the sub-regions with combined average sales for October and November falling compared to 2009 figures by an average of 8.6% in Tyne and Wear, 4.9% in County Durham, 4.1% in Tees Valley and 2.2% in Northumberland. House building Inside Housing reports on house building completions in England hitting a record low in 2010. Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) figures show completions being down 13.2% on 2009 figures while starts are up 31.9% over the same period. There is a different picture in the North East, however. The 4,660 building starts that took place between January and December represent a 44.7% increase on the previous twelve months, while there was also a 3.2% increase in completions. Generally a slower quarter for building starts, the final quarter of 2010 showed a decrease in new housing starts on the previous quarter (-43.8%) but a 2.8% (20 homes) increase on the corresponding quarter of 2009. After a relatively dramatic downturn in building starts and completions in the early part of 2008, figures have shown a levelling off since. Compared with the corresponding
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quarter of 2009, building completions are down 6.6% (90 homes). Figure 4 below shows house building from 2007. The vast majority of the 1,290 completions (81.4%) were in the private sector with 17.1% built by RSLs and 1.6% by local authorities. Building starts in the region stood at 730 with 83.6% being in the private sector. Figure 4: North East House Building Starts and Completions 2007-2010
New Households New-build alone is not likely to meet the probable demand created by the formation of new households in the region. By 2013 household numbers are projected to increase by 43,000 in the region; a 3.9% rise on those in 2008. This is compared with a 5.2% growth for the whole of England (DCLG). In terms of the number of households being formed between 2008 and 2013, greatest increases are set to take place in Tyne and Wear (19,000) and Tees Valley (11,000). However, the greatest proportionate increase is projected to take place in County Durham (4.2% on 2008 numbers). The 1,000 extra households projected in the former district of Berwick represents an 8.3% proportionate increase – the highest proportionate growth in the region, while the greatest numerical increase will take place in Newcastle (6,000). Vacant Private Dwellings Almost half of this projected demand could be met by bringing empty homes back into use. HSSA data showed that in 2009 there were 22,476 privately owned dwellings empty for more than six months in the North East (2.6% of the private stock). Of these 2.2% were vacant for regeneration or other housing schemes. Almost two-thirds of these homes were found in Tyne and Wear (37.3%) and County Durham (28.3%), while almost one-quarter were found in Tees Valley (24.6%) and 9.8% in Northumberland. 4
Over half of the empty private homes in Tyne and Wear could be found in Gateshead (29.6%) and Sunderland (28.5%). Elsewhere, Middlesbrough (29.7%), Easington (28.5%) and Wansbeck (21.5%) had the highest proportions of empty private dwellings in their respective sub-regions. Tees Valley’s private stock is most affected by regeneration activity. The 247 private dwellings vacant due to regeneration represents 4.5% of the total empty private dwellings in the sub-region. Endnote The next report will concentrate on the first quarter of 2011 and will be available to all NHC members. If you have any questions or queries regarding this document, please contact Barry Turnbull at Northern Housing Consortium on 0191 5661030 or at [email protected]. Alternatively visit our website at www.northern-consortium.org.uk.
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