Weekly Update
Frazier’s Perspective Weekly Update Edition 15 As of April 30, 2013
Frazier Buy-Sell Index and the Performance of the S&P 500 Index
Frazier's Buy-Sell Index is derived from the readings on his Tactical Asset & Sector Allocation Model 60% 50%
Frazier Buy-Sell Index
S 10% 0%
1,400 1,300
B B
-10% -20%
1,200
S B
S
S
1,100
-30% 1,000 BUY
-50%
900
B -60%
800
B
-70%
Buy Signals: Triggered when the Frazier Buy-Sell Index falls to or below -40% -80% 700 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Buy Index
Sell Index
S&P 500 Index
Frazier Overbought-Oversold Index (Sources of Data: Standard & Poor's; Worden Brothers) As of May 17, 2013
Overbought
1,700
90 1,600 80
Overbought-Oversold Index
Meanwhile, the trading volume for the New York Stock Exchange continued to be light, while persons who invest in mutual funds withdrew approximately 3.7 billion from U.S. stock funds over the two weeks ended May 12 – the latest period for which data is readily available. That type of stock market activity indicates that investors, in the aggregate, are not convinced that stocks will continue to trend higher during the months ahead.
B
B
100
The latest reading on my Overbought-Oversold Index supports that likelihood, with that stock market indicator remaining in substantial overbought territory during the week ended May 17.
1,500 S
S
-40%
Although I’m disappointed that we’ve missed out on some substantial gains since I advised those of you who follow my Core Investment Portfolio to get completely out of equities on April 28, the mostrecent reading on my Tactical Asset & Allocation Model (and associated Buy-Sell Index) indicates that stocks are due for a substantial pullback during the weeks ahead.
S
S
30% 20%
1,600
SELL
40%
I continued to be wrong about the direction of U.S. stocks last week, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index rose to another all-time high during the week ended May 17.
1,700
Sell Signals: Triggered when the Frazier Buy-Sell Index rises to or above 40%
S&P 500 Index
Buy-Sell Index Registering a Sell Signal, Stocks Remain in Overbought Territory
May 19, 2013
70 1,500 60 1,400
50 40
S&P 500 Index
Volume 2
1,300 30 20 1,200 10 0 5/10/2012
Oversold 7/10/2012
9/10/2012
11/10/2012
Overbought-Oversold Indicator
1,100 1/10/2013
3/10/2013
5/10/2013
S&P 500 Index
Yet, the cumulative advance-decline line for the New York Stock Exchange continued to trend higher last week and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index – the fear index – remained near historically low levels. Hence, persons who are active currently in the U.S. stock market appear to think that stock prices, in general, will continue to move higher or that any potential pullback will be modest. In considering the conflicting factors and developments mentioned above, my experience suggests that the wisest course of action to take at this time is to wait for stocks to consolidate or to pull back a bit before committing any new funds to equities. Although you’ll obviously miss out on some further gains if stocks continue to trend higher, I have found over the past 25 years that chasing after yesterday’s stock market winners usually turns out to be a bad decision. Therefore, I advise those of you who follow my Core Investment Portfolio to continue to allocate 100% of your financial market assets to money-market securities and for those of you who follow my Speculative Portfolio to continue to allocate approximately 45% of your assets to money-market securities. Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 1
Model Portfolios The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio As of May 17, 2013 Security Name Cash / Money Market Securities
Total Returns The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio S&P 500 Index
Inception Date: September 18, 2007 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends
Current Price
% of Port. 60%
Percent Change
Current Advice Hold
2007 *
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD
Since Inception
5.8% 0.0%
-10.6% -37.0%
18.4% 26.5%
1.4% 15.1%
3.7% 2.1%
17.2% 16.0%
2.4% 17.9%
41.2% 28.0%
* Year 2007 performance results are for the period from the inception of The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio on September 18, 2007 to December 31, 2007. (Note: From September 18, 2007 to January 24, 2012, The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio was known as The ETF Strategist's Conservative Portfolio.
The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio is structured for persons whose primary goal is to protect the value of their principal, with a secondary goal of generating returns in excess of broadly diversified investment portfolios over complete market cycles, meaning from the beginning of one bull (bear) market to the beginning of another bull (bear) market.
See the Appendix to this report for all of our recommended closed positions
The Frazier Speculative Portfolio As of May 12, 2013 Security Name PowerShares DB Gold Short ETF Ubiquiti Networks EPAM Systems HomeAway Travelzoo iGATE Corp. SolarWinds Silicon Motion Technology Entropic Communications Jiayuan.com International Brightcove MakeMyTrip Cash / Money Market Securities **
Inception Date: October 29, 2010 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends DGZ 05/11/11 $13.13 $0.00 UBNT 05/21/12 $19.08 $0.18 EPAM 03/05/13 $22.30 $0.00 AWAY 10/06/11 $34.21 $0.00 TZOO 08/09/11 $33.06 $0.00 IGTE 10/19/10 $20.32 $0.15 SWI 03/05/13 $58.34 $0.00 SIMO 10/16/12 $14.38 $0.15 ENTR 10/16/12 $5.76 $0.00 DATE 11/16/11 $8.85 $0.00 BCOV 10/16/12 $12.17 $0.00 MMYT 11/11/11 $27.92 $0.00
Current Price $14.38 $20.40 $23.00 $30.21 $28.62 $16.34 $46.95 $11.06 $4.48 $5.64 $7.67 $12.89
% of Port. 30% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 45%
Percent Change 9.5% 7.9% 3.1% -11.7% -13.4% -18.8% -19.5% -22.0% -22.2% -36.3% -37.0% -53.8%
Current Advice Buy Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold
Comparative Returns
2010*
2011
2012
YTD
Since Inception
The Frazier Speculative Portfolio S&P 500 Index
10.9% 6.7%
15.3% 2.1%
5.3% 16.0%
10.4% 17.9%
48.7 49.0%
* Year 2010 performance results are for the period from the inception of The Frazier Speculative Portfolio on October 29, 2010 to December 31, 2010. (Note: From October 29, 2010 to January 31, 2012, The Frazier Speculative Portfolio was known as The Frazier Hedge Fund Portfolio). A security’s stated percentage of this model portfolio represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. The stated cash percentage of this model portfolio represents the percentage of the total value of the model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table.
Added to the following securities on 11/22/11: DATE, and TZOO. Added to AWAY on 11/16/11. Added to DGZ on 5/26/11, 8/10/11, and 8/11/11. The Frazier Speculative Portfolio is structured for persons who seek to profit from short-term developments in the financial markets and/or to speculate on the longer-term appreciation potential of cyclical stocks and small-cap, growth stocks. While the goal of this portfolio is to outperform broadly diversified investment portfolios by a wide margin over complete market cycles, we urge only those persons who already maintain some type of core investment portfolio to follow our Speculative Portfolio recommendations.
Week Ended May April19, 12, 7, 2013 2013
©© Frazier’s The MarketMonk. Perspective. AllAll rights rights reserved. reserved.
Page 2 3
APPENDIX The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio All Closed Positions Since Inception on September 18, 2007
Security Name
Ticker Symbol
Entry Date
Avg. Entry Price
Dividends per Share
Exit Date
Exit Price
Percent of Portfolio*
Total Return
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ProShares Ultra Short Oil & Gas iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund SPDR S&P Bank ETF iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ProShares Ultra Short Oil & Gas Midcap SPDR Trust Series 1 ETF Select Sector SPDR-Technology
FXI QQQQ QQQQ DBA DUG IWM KBE IWM DUG MDY XLK
10/21/08 10/27/08 10/13/08 09/18/07 05/23/08 10/27/08 12/01/11 05/15/09 07/08/08 06/04/09 12/01/11
$27.81 $29.14 $32.58 $27.80 $28.86 $46.12 $19.36 $48.42 $30.88 $108.00 $25.89
$0.53 $0.18 $0.18 $0.45 $0.04 $0.68 $0.30 $0.33 $0.00 $0.78 $0.21
10/27/09 10/27/09 10/27/09 01/16/08 08/12/08 09/09/09 04/02/12 10/27/09 08/12/08 10/27/09 04/02/12
$44.33 $43.04 $43.04 $36.00 $37.76 $57.62 $23.83 $59.75 $37.76 $126.55 $30.15
5% 5% 5% 25% 5% 5% 25% 10% 5% 10% 25%
61.3% 48.3% 32.6% 31.1% 31.0% 26.4% 24.7% 24.1% 22.3% 17.9% 17.3%
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund
FXI
06/04/09
$38.42
$0.33
10/27/09
$44.33
5%
16.2%
iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ) Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF
IYJ VBK
12/01/11 12/01/11
$63.67 $77.47
$0.30 $0.41
04/02/12 04/02/12
$71.21 $86.57
25% 25%
12.3% 12.3%
Select Sector SPDR Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund SPDR KBW Bank ETF
XLI KBE
01/03/11 12/01/11
$35.15 $23.51
$0.16 $0.08
05/02/11 05/02/11
$38.63 $25.52
20% 20%
10.3% 8.9%
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN Guggenheim China Technology ETF iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SZO CQQQ IWM XRT
05/11/11 06/15/11 10/13/08 03/05/13
$42.07 $26.83 $54.26 $68.19
$0.00 $0.00 $0.68 $0.06
06/28/11 07/06/11 09/09/09 04/29/13
$45.57 $28.90 $57.62 $72.89
5% 5% 5% 10%
8.3% 7.7% 7.4% 7.0%
iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF
IYT
01/03/11
$93.54
$0.25
05/02/11
$99.56
20%
6.7%
iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ProShares Short S&P 500 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF SPDR S&P Bank ETF SDPR Industrial Select Sector Fund Global X Lithium ETF
IYJ HAO SDS SH VBK KBE XLI LIT
10/16/12 06/15/11 06/20/08 09/18/07 10/16/12 10/16/12 09/09/09 03/18/11
$71.21 $26.89 $63.75 $61.16 $87.67 $23.83 $25.72 $21.49
$0.35 $0.00 $0.15 $1.61 $0.00 $0.21 $0.14 $0.00
01/03/13 07/06/11 07/22/08 04/25/08 01/03/13 01/03/13 10/27/09 05/02/11
$75.22 $28.45 $67.25 $63.00 $91.57 $24.58 $26.52 $22.08
10% 5% 10% 25% 10% 10% 20% 10%
6.1% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 4.4% 4.0% 3.7% 2.7%
iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond Fund Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF SPDR S&P MidCap 400 Trust Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF
SHV VBK MDY VBK
02/04/08 05/21/12 05/21/12 03/05/13
$110.07 $78.49 $165.73 $96.73
$2.71 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01
03/16/11 05/31/12 05/31/12 04/29/13
$110.23 $80.27 $169.05 $98.63
10% 15% 15% 10%
2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0%
iShares U.S. Dow Jones Medical Equipment Index Fund SPDR S&P Retail ETF
IHI XRT
03/20/08 10/16/12
$55.78 $62.86
$0.12 $0.58
05/07/10 01/03/13
$56.72 $63.44
10% 10%
1.9% 1.8%
- Continued below Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 3
All Closed Positions Since Inception on September 18, 2007
Security Name Select Sector SPDR-Technology SPDR S&P Bank ETF
Ticker Symbol XLK KBE
Entry Date 03/05/13 03/05/13
Avg. Entry Price $29.97 $26.33
Dividends per Share $0.12 $0.11
Exit Date 04/29/13 04/29/13
Exit Price $30.11 $26.45
Percent of Portfolio* 10% 10%
Total Return 0.9% 0.9%
iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond Fund
SHV
09/18/07
$109.66
$0.76
11/07/07
$109.66
25%
0.7%
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Select Sector SPDR-Technology
ETW XLK
05/20/11 10/16/12
$12.35 $30.14
$0.30 $0.17
07/06/11 01/03/13
$12.11 $29.79
10% 10%
0.5% -0.6%
Madison/Claymore Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund
MCN
05/20/11
$8.62
$0.00
07/06/11
$8.56
10%
-0.7%
Advent/Claymore Enhanced Growth & Income Fund ProShares Short Russell 2000 ProShares Short S&P 500 Market Vectors Steel Index Fund ProShares Short S&P 500
LCM RWM SH SLX SHV
05/20/11 03/16/11 02/05/10 01/13/11 03/16/11
$11.88 $31.71 $55.10 $74.24 $43.40
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
07/06/11 03/18/11 02/09/10 05/02/11 03/18/11
$11.79 $31.37 $54.45 $73.07 $42.68
10% 5% 10% 10% 10%
-0.8% -1.1% -1.2% -1.6% -1.7%
iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ProShares Short S&P 500 S&P 500 Covered Call Fund PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN
IEI SDS PALL SH BEP DGZ
11/04/10 07/07/08 01/13/11 11/13/09 04/18/08 01/28/11
$119.44 $69.50 $81.48 $54.06 $16.02 $16.10
$0.43 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.00 $0.00
12/08/10 07/22/08 05/02/11 01/11/10 07/14/08 03/02/11
$115.21 $67.25 $76.77 $50.87 $14.00 $14.88
30% 10% 5% 10% 20% 5%
-3.2% -3.2% -5.8% -5.9% -6.4% -7.6%
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund
IHI
04/11/08
$57.00
$0.00
10/06/08
$52.12
10%
-8.6%
WisdomTree International Utilities Sector Fund
DBU
10/05/07
$33.12
$0.28
01/22/08
$29.99
25%
-8.6%
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund
IHI
06/09/08
$58.50
$0.00
10/06/08
$52.12
10%
-10.9%
DGG DBA KBE KBE
11/07/07 04/10/08 10/09/08 05/09/08
$37.68 $39.69 $28.36 $40.16
$0.81 $0.00 $0.51 $0.00
01/18/08 08/06/08 10/28/09 06/27/08
$32.50 $33.80 $21.82 $29.00
25% 10% 10% 10%
-11.6% -14.8% -21.3% -27.8%
WisdomTree International Communications Sector Fund PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund SPDR KBW Bank ETF KBW Bank ETF
- See below for Speculative Portfolio Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 4
The Frazier Speculative Portfolio All Closed Positions Since Inception on October 29, 2010
Security Name IPG Photonics Lululemon Athletica OpenTable Tempur Pedic InterDigital Rockwood Holdings IPG Photonics Focus Media JPMorgan Chase Citigroup Cliffs Natural Resources Vital Images Mercadolibre Informatica LivePerson Cummins Engine Panera Bread Lumber Liquidators SodaStream International China Yuchai International Tempur-Pedic Entropic Communications Renren Inc. SolarWinds Cirrus Logic Entropic Communications (ENTR) Ford Cyberonics 51job Travelzoo HomeAway Jiayuan.com International NVE Corp Mercadolibre MakeMyTrip MercadoLibre Jiayuan.com Avago Technologies Entropic Communication SodaStream 51job MercadoLibre IPG Photonics Focus Media EPAM Systems
Ticker Symbol IPGP LULU OPEN TPX IDCC ROC IPGP FMCN JPM C CLF VTAL MELI INFA LPSN CMI PNRA LL SODA CYD TPX ENTR RENN SWI CRUS ENTR F CYBX JOBS TZOO AWAY DATE NVEC MELI MMYT MELI DATE AVGO ENTR SODA JOBS MELI IPGP FMCN EPAM
Entry Date 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 12/01/11 10/29/10 12/20/11 12/20/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 11/16/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 03/05/13 11/11/11 10/29/10 11/16/11 10/06/11 06/07/11 12/14/11 10/29/10 11/16/11 11/17/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 06/08/11 08/04/11 06/09/11 10/29/10 09/06/12 08/09/11 12/21/11 10/06/11 06/06/11 08/04/11 10/16/12 06/08/11 10/06/11 10/16/12 10/06/11 05/21/12
Avg. Entry Price $22.50 $44.32 $61.47 $34.50 $33.57 $33.92 $39.39 $24.73 $31.88 $25.77 $65.20 $13.30 $66.14 $40.69 $12.45 $88.10 $89.51 $63.67 $31.78 $25.62 $65.47 $4.43 $8.61 $29.72 $12.86 $5.00 $10.31 $27.51 $45.08 $60.81 $33.20 $10.23 $48.13 $82.21 $17.36 $82.95 $8.30 $33.37 $4.23 $38.20 $50.45 $56.81 $56.01 $21.98 $14.78
Dividends per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.25 $0.01 $0.42 $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 $0.00 $0.53 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.15 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.09 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Exit Date 05/03/11 05/03/11 05/03/11 05/03/11 07/19/11 05/03/11 02/14/12 05/03/11 04/02/12 04/02/12 05/03/11 05/02/11 05/03/11 05/03/11 04/02/12 05/03/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 09/17/12 05/03/11 04/02/12 10/24/11 07/06/11 02/14/12 07/06/11 09/17/12 12/27/12 05/03/11 05/03/11 07/06/11 08/26/11 07/06/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 08/12/11 04/02/12 10/12/11 07/06/11 09/16/11 12/27/12 07/06/11 10/21/11 12/27/12 10/12/11 06/06/12
Exit Price $72.50 $94.01 $113.50 $61.71 $53.26 $53.87 $58.58 $36.73 $45.75 $36.40 $91.13 $18.64 $91.77 $54.80 $16.77 $116.97 $117.82 $82.94 $40.84 $32.88 $83.83 $5.65 $10.96 $37.81 $16.28 $6.32 $12.79 $34.52 $56.23 $75.43 $40.83 $12.51 $57.52 $97.67 $20.47 $97.39 $9.72 $38.97 $4.94 $44.52 $58.56 $65.61 $64.57 $25.33 $17.00
Percent of Portfolio* 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 5.0% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Total Return 222.2% 112.1% 84.6% 78.9% 59.5% 58.8% 48.7% 48.5% 44.3% 41.3% 40.4% 40.2% 38.9% 34.7% 34.7% 33.4% 31.6% 30.3% 28.5% 28.3% 28.0% 27.5% 27.3% 27.2% 26.6% 26.4% 25.6% 25.5% 24.7% 24.0% 23.0% 22.3% 19.5% 19.2% 17.9% 17.4% 17.1% 17.1% 16.9% 16.5% 16.1% 15.5% 15.3% 15.2% 15.0%
- Continued below Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 5
All Closed Positions Since Inception on October 29, 2010
Security Name Jiayuan.com 3D Systems Jiayuan.com International Caterpillar Syntel SPDR KBW Bank ETF Focus Media Panera Bread Ford Focus Media Renren Inc. OpenTable Tempur-Pedic Rovi Corp. OpenTable PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN LivePerson MercadoLibre LivePerson Volcano Corp Stratasys Silicon Motion Technology ProShares Short S&P 500 ProShares Short S&P 500 Entropic Communications Ford Avago Technologies PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN Ford MakeMyTrip Ltd. Ctrip.com Tempur-Pedic Travelzoo Guangshen Railway IPG Photonics SolarWinds OmniVision Technologies ProShares Short Russell 2000 ProShares Short S&P500 ProShares Short S&P 500 SPDR S&P 500 ETF 3D Systems SolarWinds NetApp ProShares Short S&P 500
Ticker Symbol DATE DDD DATE CAT SYNT KBE FMCN PNRA F FMCN RENN OPEN TPX ROVI OPEN
Entry Date 08/08/11 10/06/11 07/21/11 10/16/12 10/29/10 10/29/10 04/29/13 08/09/11 10/06/11 06/08/11 10/06/11 11/16/12 08/11/11 10/06/11 08/09/11
Avg. Entry Price $12.04 $16.16 $13.36 $83.48 $48.36 $22.59 $24.48 $101.23 $10.97 $28.48 $5.32 $38.74 $57.78 $44.25 $60.42
Dividends per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.12 $0.08 $0.41 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Exit Date 08/09/11 10/24/11 07/28/11 01/07/13 05/03/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 09/16/11 10/25/11 07/06/11 10/24/11 06/12/12 09/16/11 10/13/11 08/10/11
Exit Price $13.83 $18.48 $15.18 $94.57 $54.61 $25.47 $27.24 $114.07 $12.36 $32.02 $5.97 $42.87 $63.36 $48.41 $66.10
Percent of Portfolio* 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Total Return 14.9% 14.4% 13.6% 13.3% 13.2% 13.1% 12.9% 12.7% 12.7% 12.4% 12.2% 10.7% 9.7% 9.4% 9.4%
SZO
07/06/11
$43.71
$0.00
08/04/11
$47.80
10.0%
9.4%
LPSN MELI LPSN VOLC SSYS SIMO SH SH ENTR F AVGO
08/09/11 08/04/11 10/06/11 10/29/10 03/05/13 05/21/12 06/01/11 05/03/12 05/25/11 08/08/11 10/06/11
$10.86 $63.49 $10.04 $24.42 $70.80 $13.46 $40.66 $35.75 $8.63 $10.02 $33.08
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
08/12/11 08/12/11 10/13/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 06/06/12 08/04/11 05/21/12 07/06/11 08/09/11 10/17/11
$11.87 $69.12 $10.90 $26.48 $76.70 $14.58 $43.84 $38.49 $9.27 $10.76 $35.38
2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 20.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0%
9.3% 8.9% 8.6% 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.0%
SZO
05/11/11
$42.53
$0.00
06/17/11
$45.09
10.0%
6.0%
F MMYT CTRP TPX TZOO GSH IPGP SWI OVTI RWM SH SH SPY DDD SWI NTAP SH
03/05/13 06/06/11 06/09/11 10/16/12 07/21/11 10/29/10 03/05/13 10/16/12 06/03/11 05/12/11 10/01/12 05/12/11 04/29/11 03/05/13 05/21/12 10/29/10 08/09/11
$12.87 $23.69 $42.04 $33.04 $57.21 $20.34 $60.43 $53.88 $33.18 $29.46 $33.88 $40.67 $137.01 $35.74 $44.12 $53.25 $46.28
04/29/13 07/06/11 07/06/11 01/07/13 07/22/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 01/07/13 07/06/11 05/19/11 10/16/12 05/19/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 06/06/12 05/03/11 10/06/11
$13.64 $25.06 $44.25 $34.35 $59.40 $20.39 $61.97 $54.87 $33.32 $29.43 $33.79 $40.39 $135.97 $35.29 $43.56 $51.89 $44.88
3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 20.0%
6.0% 5.8% 5.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 2.5% 1.8% 0.4% -0.1% -0.3% -0.7% -0.8% -1.3% -1.3% -2.6% -3.0%
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.69 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
- Continued below Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 6
All Closed Positions Since Inception on October 29, 2010
Security Name Nuance Communications (sold short) ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 F5 Networks CTrip.com ProShares Short S&P 500 Tata Motors Caterpillar ProShares Short S&P 500 Renren Skyworks Solutions China Digital TV Yongye International AsiaInfo-Linkage Ballantyne Strong Rubicon Technology
Ticker Symbol NUAN SDS FFIV CTRP SH TTM CAT SH RENN SWKS STV YONG ASIA BTN RBCN
Entry Date 10/17/11 08/13/12 10/29/10 10/29/10 05/19/12 10/29/10 03/05/13 08/09/11 07/21/11 05/02/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 05/26/11
Avg. Entry Price $26.77 $14.55 $117.70 $52.06 $36.82 $28.12 $90.62 $44.62 $8.49 $29.31 $5.21 $8.02 $22.20 $8.42 $23.05
Dividends per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Exit Date 11/16/11 09/06/12 11/11/11 05/03/11 09/06/12 05/03/11 04/29/13 11/16/11 08/09/11 01/30/12 01/30/12 05/18/11 01/30/12 01/30/12 03/09/12
Exit Price $25.55 $13.86 $111.10 $48.87 $34.36 $26.24 $84.53 $41.00 $7.52 $21.76 $3.53 $4.25 $11.48 $4.27 $8.94
Percent of Portfolio* 2.0% 10.0% 3.2% 3.2% 20.0% 3.2% 3.0% 20.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0%
Total Return -4.6% -4.7% -5.6% -6.1% -6.7% -6.7% -6.7% -8.1% -11.5% -25.8% -32.2% -47.0% -48.3% -49.3% -61.2%
This report is provided by David N. Frazier to persons who have asked Mr. Frazier to keep them informed of his analysis of developments in the economic and geopolitical environment, and other factors that tend to affect the financial markets, as well as his opinions regarding certain exchangetraded funds and common stocks. This publication is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any securities herein named. The information contained in this report has been obtained and compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, Mr. Frazier does not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, and/or usefulness of that information. That information should be used as references only with your own discretion. Mr. Frazier is not responsible for any errors and/or omissions that might be contained in this report. The content of this report should not be construed, under any circumstance, as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication that you will profit from any of Mr. Frazier’s recommendations or that any potential investment losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Any investment or trade recommendation made in this report is taken at your own risk for your own account. David N. Frazier does not guarantee, and readers of this report should not assume, that the future performance of his investment and/or trade recommendations will equal the past performance of those recommendations. Mr. Frazier may, at any time, invest in and trade the securities covered in this report. You are not to copy or redistributed this report without express written permission from David N. Frazier.
Published by: David N. Frazier Week Ended May 19, 2013
195 Soriano Drive © Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Jupiter, FL 33458 Page 7
Frazier Buy-Sell Index and the Performance of the S&P 500 Index
Frazier's Buy-Sell Index is derived from the readings on his Tactical Asset & Sector Allocation Model 60% 50%
Frazier Buy-Sell Index
S 10% 0%
1,400 1,300
B B
-10% -20%
1,200
S B
S
S
1,100
-30% 1,000 BUY
-50%
900
B -60%
800
B
-70%
Buy Signals: Triggered when the Frazier Buy-Sell Index falls to or below -40% -80% 700 Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Buy Index
Sell Index
S&P 500 Index
Frazier Overbought-Oversold Index (Sources of Data: Standard & Poor's; Worden Brothers) As of May 17, 2013
Overbought
1,700
90 1,600 80
Overbought-Oversold Index
Meanwhile, the trading volume for the New York Stock Exchange continued to be light, while persons who invest in mutual funds withdrew approximately 3.7 billion from U.S. stock funds over the two weeks ended May 12 – the latest period for which data is readily available. That type of stock market activity indicates that investors, in the aggregate, are not convinced that stocks will continue to trend higher during the months ahead.
B
B
100
The latest reading on my Overbought-Oversold Index supports that likelihood, with that stock market indicator remaining in substantial overbought territory during the week ended May 17.
1,500 S
S
-40%
Although I’m disappointed that we’ve missed out on some substantial gains since I advised those of you who follow my Core Investment Portfolio to get completely out of equities on April 28, the mostrecent reading on my Tactical Asset & Allocation Model (and associated Buy-Sell Index) indicates that stocks are due for a substantial pullback during the weeks ahead.
S
S
30% 20%
1,600
SELL
40%
I continued to be wrong about the direction of U.S. stocks last week, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index rose to another all-time high during the week ended May 17.
1,700
Sell Signals: Triggered when the Frazier Buy-Sell Index rises to or above 40%
S&P 500 Index
Buy-Sell Index Registering a Sell Signal, Stocks Remain in Overbought Territory
May 19, 2013
70 1,500 60 1,400
50 40
S&P 500 Index
Volume 2
1,300 30 20 1,200 10 0 5/10/2012
Oversold 7/10/2012
9/10/2012
11/10/2012
Overbought-Oversold Indicator
1,100 1/10/2013
3/10/2013
5/10/2013
S&P 500 Index
Yet, the cumulative advance-decline line for the New York Stock Exchange continued to trend higher last week and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index – the fear index – remained near historically low levels. Hence, persons who are active currently in the U.S. stock market appear to think that stock prices, in general, will continue to move higher or that any potential pullback will be modest. In considering the conflicting factors and developments mentioned above, my experience suggests that the wisest course of action to take at this time is to wait for stocks to consolidate or to pull back a bit before committing any new funds to equities. Although you’ll obviously miss out on some further gains if stocks continue to trend higher, I have found over the past 25 years that chasing after yesterday’s stock market winners usually turns out to be a bad decision. Therefore, I advise those of you who follow my Core Investment Portfolio to continue to allocate 100% of your financial market assets to money-market securities and for those of you who follow my Speculative Portfolio to continue to allocate approximately 45% of your assets to money-market securities. Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 1
Model Portfolios The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio As of May 17, 2013 Security Name Cash / Money Market Securities
Total Returns The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio S&P 500 Index
Inception Date: September 18, 2007 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends
Current Price
% of Port. 60%
Percent Change
Current Advice Hold
2007 *
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD
Since Inception
5.8% 0.0%
-10.6% -37.0%
18.4% 26.5%
1.4% 15.1%
3.7% 2.1%
17.2% 16.0%
2.4% 17.9%
41.2% 28.0%
* Year 2007 performance results are for the period from the inception of The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio on September 18, 2007 to December 31, 2007. (Note: From September 18, 2007 to January 24, 2012, The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio was known as The ETF Strategist's Conservative Portfolio.
The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio is structured for persons whose primary goal is to protect the value of their principal, with a secondary goal of generating returns in excess of broadly diversified investment portfolios over complete market cycles, meaning from the beginning of one bull (bear) market to the beginning of another bull (bear) market.
See the Appendix to this report for all of our recommended closed positions
The Frazier Speculative Portfolio As of May 12, 2013 Security Name PowerShares DB Gold Short ETF Ubiquiti Networks EPAM Systems HomeAway Travelzoo iGATE Corp. SolarWinds Silicon Motion Technology Entropic Communications Jiayuan.com International Brightcove MakeMyTrip Cash / Money Market Securities **
Inception Date: October 29, 2010 Ticker Initial Avg. Entry Symbol Entry Date Price Dividends DGZ 05/11/11 $13.13 $0.00 UBNT 05/21/12 $19.08 $0.18 EPAM 03/05/13 $22.30 $0.00 AWAY 10/06/11 $34.21 $0.00 TZOO 08/09/11 $33.06 $0.00 IGTE 10/19/10 $20.32 $0.15 SWI 03/05/13 $58.34 $0.00 SIMO 10/16/12 $14.38 $0.15 ENTR 10/16/12 $5.76 $0.00 DATE 11/16/11 $8.85 $0.00 BCOV 10/16/12 $12.17 $0.00 MMYT 11/11/11 $27.92 $0.00
Current Price $14.38 $20.40 $23.00 $30.21 $28.62 $16.34 $46.95 $11.06 $4.48 $5.64 $7.67 $12.89
% of Port. 30% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 45%
Percent Change 9.5% 7.9% 3.1% -11.7% -13.4% -18.8% -19.5% -22.0% -22.2% -36.3% -37.0% -53.8%
Current Advice Buy Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold Hold
Comparative Returns
2010*
2011
2012
YTD
Since Inception
The Frazier Speculative Portfolio S&P 500 Index
10.9% 6.7%
15.3% 2.1%
5.3% 16.0%
10.4% 17.9%
48.7 49.0%
* Year 2010 performance results are for the period from the inception of The Frazier Speculative Portfolio on October 29, 2010 to December 31, 2010. (Note: From October 29, 2010 to January 31, 2012, The Frazier Speculative Portfolio was known as The Frazier Hedge Fund Portfolio). A security’s stated percentage of this model portfolio represents the percentage of the total value of the portfolio that was allocated to the security on the date that the security was recommended for purchase. The stated cash percentage of this model portfolio represents the percentage of the total value of the model portfolio that was allocated to cash as of the date of this portfolio table.
Added to the following securities on 11/22/11: DATE, and TZOO. Added to AWAY on 11/16/11. Added to DGZ on 5/26/11, 8/10/11, and 8/11/11. The Frazier Speculative Portfolio is structured for persons who seek to profit from short-term developments in the financial markets and/or to speculate on the longer-term appreciation potential of cyclical stocks and small-cap, growth stocks. While the goal of this portfolio is to outperform broadly diversified investment portfolios by a wide margin over complete market cycles, we urge only those persons who already maintain some type of core investment portfolio to follow our Speculative Portfolio recommendations.
Week Ended May April19, 12, 7, 2013 2013
©© Frazier’s The MarketMonk. Perspective. AllAll rights rights reserved. reserved.
Page 2 3
APPENDIX The Frazier Core Investment Portfolio All Closed Positions Since Inception on September 18, 2007
Security Name
Ticker Symbol
Entry Date
Avg. Entry Price
Dividends per Share
Exit Date
Exit Price
Percent of Portfolio*
Total Return
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ProShares Ultra Short Oil & Gas iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund SPDR S&P Bank ETF iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ProShares Ultra Short Oil & Gas Midcap SPDR Trust Series 1 ETF Select Sector SPDR-Technology
FXI QQQQ QQQQ DBA DUG IWM KBE IWM DUG MDY XLK
10/21/08 10/27/08 10/13/08 09/18/07 05/23/08 10/27/08 12/01/11 05/15/09 07/08/08 06/04/09 12/01/11
$27.81 $29.14 $32.58 $27.80 $28.86 $46.12 $19.36 $48.42 $30.88 $108.00 $25.89
$0.53 $0.18 $0.18 $0.45 $0.04 $0.68 $0.30 $0.33 $0.00 $0.78 $0.21
10/27/09 10/27/09 10/27/09 01/16/08 08/12/08 09/09/09 04/02/12 10/27/09 08/12/08 10/27/09 04/02/12
$44.33 $43.04 $43.04 $36.00 $37.76 $57.62 $23.83 $59.75 $37.76 $126.55 $30.15
5% 5% 5% 25% 5% 5% 25% 10% 5% 10% 25%
61.3% 48.3% 32.6% 31.1% 31.0% 26.4% 24.7% 24.1% 22.3% 17.9% 17.3%
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund
FXI
06/04/09
$38.42
$0.33
10/27/09
$44.33
5%
16.2%
iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund (IYJ) Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF
IYJ VBK
12/01/11 12/01/11
$63.67 $77.47
$0.30 $0.41
04/02/12 04/02/12
$71.21 $86.57
25% 25%
12.3% 12.3%
Select Sector SPDR Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund SPDR KBW Bank ETF
XLI KBE
01/03/11 12/01/11
$35.15 $23.51
$0.16 $0.08
05/02/11 05/02/11
$38.63 $25.52
20% 20%
10.3% 8.9%
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN Guggenheim China Technology ETF iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SZO CQQQ IWM XRT
05/11/11 06/15/11 10/13/08 03/05/13
$42.07 $26.83 $54.26 $68.19
$0.00 $0.00 $0.68 $0.06
06/28/11 07/06/11 09/09/09 04/29/13
$45.57 $28.90 $57.62 $72.89
5% 5% 5% 10%
8.3% 7.7% 7.4% 7.0%
iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index ETF
IYT
01/03/11
$93.54
$0.25
05/02/11
$99.56
20%
6.7%
iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. Industrial Sector Index Fund Guggenheim China Small Cap ETF ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ProShares Short S&P 500 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF SPDR S&P Bank ETF SDPR Industrial Select Sector Fund Global X Lithium ETF
IYJ HAO SDS SH VBK KBE XLI LIT
10/16/12 06/15/11 06/20/08 09/18/07 10/16/12 10/16/12 09/09/09 03/18/11
$71.21 $26.89 $63.75 $61.16 $87.67 $23.83 $25.72 $21.49
$0.35 $0.00 $0.15 $1.61 $0.00 $0.21 $0.14 $0.00
01/03/13 07/06/11 07/22/08 04/25/08 01/03/13 01/03/13 10/27/09 05/02/11
$75.22 $28.45 $67.25 $63.00 $91.57 $24.58 $26.52 $22.08
10% 5% 10% 25% 10% 10% 20% 10%
6.1% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 4.4% 4.0% 3.7% 2.7%
iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond Fund Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF SPDR S&P MidCap 400 Trust Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF
SHV VBK MDY VBK
02/04/08 05/21/12 05/21/12 03/05/13
$110.07 $78.49 $165.73 $96.73
$2.71 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01
03/16/11 05/31/12 05/31/12 04/29/13
$110.23 $80.27 $169.05 $98.63
10% 15% 15% 10%
2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0%
iShares U.S. Dow Jones Medical Equipment Index Fund SPDR S&P Retail ETF
IHI XRT
03/20/08 10/16/12
$55.78 $62.86
$0.12 $0.58
05/07/10 01/03/13
$56.72 $63.44
10% 10%
1.9% 1.8%
- Continued below Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 3
All Closed Positions Since Inception on September 18, 2007
Security Name Select Sector SPDR-Technology SPDR S&P Bank ETF
Ticker Symbol XLK KBE
Entry Date 03/05/13 03/05/13
Avg. Entry Price $29.97 $26.33
Dividends per Share $0.12 $0.11
Exit Date 04/29/13 04/29/13
Exit Price $30.11 $26.45
Percent of Portfolio* 10% 10%
Total Return 0.9% 0.9%
iShares Lehman Short Treasury Bond Fund
SHV
09/18/07
$109.66
$0.76
11/07/07
$109.66
25%
0.7%
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Select Sector SPDR-Technology
ETW XLK
05/20/11 10/16/12
$12.35 $30.14
$0.30 $0.17
07/06/11 01/03/13
$12.11 $29.79
10% 10%
0.5% -0.6%
Madison/Claymore Covered Call & Equity Strategy Fund
MCN
05/20/11
$8.62
$0.00
07/06/11
$8.56
10%
-0.7%
Advent/Claymore Enhanced Growth & Income Fund ProShares Short Russell 2000 ProShares Short S&P 500 Market Vectors Steel Index Fund ProShares Short S&P 500
LCM RWM SH SLX SHV
05/20/11 03/16/11 02/05/10 01/13/11 03/16/11
$11.88 $31.71 $55.10 $74.24 $43.40
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
07/06/11 03/18/11 02/09/10 05/02/11 03/18/11
$11.79 $31.37 $54.45 $73.07 $42.68
10% 5% 10% 10% 10%
-0.8% -1.1% -1.2% -1.6% -1.7%
iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ProShares Short S&P 500 S&P 500 Covered Call Fund PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN
IEI SDS PALL SH BEP DGZ
11/04/10 07/07/08 01/13/11 11/13/09 04/18/08 01/28/11
$119.44 $69.50 $81.48 $54.06 $16.02 $16.10
$0.43 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.00 $0.00
12/08/10 07/22/08 05/02/11 01/11/10 07/14/08 03/02/11
$115.21 $67.25 $76.77 $50.87 $14.00 $14.88
30% 10% 5% 10% 20% 5%
-3.2% -3.2% -5.8% -5.9% -6.4% -7.6%
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund
IHI
04/11/08
$57.00
$0.00
10/06/08
$52.12
10%
-8.6%
WisdomTree International Utilities Sector Fund
DBU
10/05/07
$33.12
$0.28
01/22/08
$29.99
25%
-8.6%
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund
IHI
06/09/08
$58.50
$0.00
10/06/08
$52.12
10%
-10.9%
DGG DBA KBE KBE
11/07/07 04/10/08 10/09/08 05/09/08
$37.68 $39.69 $28.36 $40.16
$0.81 $0.00 $0.51 $0.00
01/18/08 08/06/08 10/28/09 06/27/08
$32.50 $33.80 $21.82 $29.00
25% 10% 10% 10%
-11.6% -14.8% -21.3% -27.8%
WisdomTree International Communications Sector Fund PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund SPDR KBW Bank ETF KBW Bank ETF
- See below for Speculative Portfolio Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 4
The Frazier Speculative Portfolio All Closed Positions Since Inception on October 29, 2010
Security Name IPG Photonics Lululemon Athletica OpenTable Tempur Pedic InterDigital Rockwood Holdings IPG Photonics Focus Media JPMorgan Chase Citigroup Cliffs Natural Resources Vital Images Mercadolibre Informatica LivePerson Cummins Engine Panera Bread Lumber Liquidators SodaStream International China Yuchai International Tempur-Pedic Entropic Communications Renren Inc. SolarWinds Cirrus Logic Entropic Communications (ENTR) Ford Cyberonics 51job Travelzoo HomeAway Jiayuan.com International NVE Corp Mercadolibre MakeMyTrip MercadoLibre Jiayuan.com Avago Technologies Entropic Communication SodaStream 51job MercadoLibre IPG Photonics Focus Media EPAM Systems
Ticker Symbol IPGP LULU OPEN TPX IDCC ROC IPGP FMCN JPM C CLF VTAL MELI INFA LPSN CMI PNRA LL SODA CYD TPX ENTR RENN SWI CRUS ENTR F CYBX JOBS TZOO AWAY DATE NVEC MELI MMYT MELI DATE AVGO ENTR SODA JOBS MELI IPGP FMCN EPAM
Entry Date 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 12/01/11 10/29/10 12/20/11 12/20/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 11/16/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 03/05/13 11/11/11 10/29/10 11/16/11 10/06/11 06/07/11 12/14/11 10/29/10 11/16/11 11/17/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 06/08/11 08/04/11 06/09/11 10/29/10 09/06/12 08/09/11 12/21/11 10/06/11 06/06/11 08/04/11 10/16/12 06/08/11 10/06/11 10/16/12 10/06/11 05/21/12
Avg. Entry Price $22.50 $44.32 $61.47 $34.50 $33.57 $33.92 $39.39 $24.73 $31.88 $25.77 $65.20 $13.30 $66.14 $40.69 $12.45 $88.10 $89.51 $63.67 $31.78 $25.62 $65.47 $4.43 $8.61 $29.72 $12.86 $5.00 $10.31 $27.51 $45.08 $60.81 $33.20 $10.23 $48.13 $82.21 $17.36 $82.95 $8.30 $33.37 $4.23 $38.20 $50.45 $56.81 $56.01 $21.98 $14.78
Dividends per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.30 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.25 $0.01 $0.42 $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 $0.00 $0.53 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.15 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.34 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.09 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Exit Date 05/03/11 05/03/11 05/03/11 05/03/11 07/19/11 05/03/11 02/14/12 05/03/11 04/02/12 04/02/12 05/03/11 05/02/11 05/03/11 05/03/11 04/02/12 05/03/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 09/17/12 05/03/11 04/02/12 10/24/11 07/06/11 02/14/12 07/06/11 09/17/12 12/27/12 05/03/11 05/03/11 07/06/11 08/26/11 07/06/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 08/12/11 04/02/12 10/12/11 07/06/11 09/16/11 12/27/12 07/06/11 10/21/11 12/27/12 10/12/11 06/06/12
Exit Price $72.50 $94.01 $113.50 $61.71 $53.26 $53.87 $58.58 $36.73 $45.75 $36.40 $91.13 $18.64 $91.77 $54.80 $16.77 $116.97 $117.82 $82.94 $40.84 $32.88 $83.83 $5.65 $10.96 $37.81 $16.28 $6.32 $12.79 $34.52 $56.23 $75.43 $40.83 $12.51 $57.52 $97.67 $20.47 $97.39 $9.72 $38.97 $4.94 $44.52 $58.56 $65.61 $64.57 $25.33 $17.00
Percent of Portfolio* 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 5.0% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 2.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Total Return 222.2% 112.1% 84.6% 78.9% 59.5% 58.8% 48.7% 48.5% 44.3% 41.3% 40.4% 40.2% 38.9% 34.7% 34.7% 33.4% 31.6% 30.3% 28.5% 28.3% 28.0% 27.5% 27.3% 27.2% 26.6% 26.4% 25.6% 25.5% 24.7% 24.0% 23.0% 22.3% 19.5% 19.2% 17.9% 17.4% 17.1% 17.1% 16.9% 16.5% 16.1% 15.5% 15.3% 15.2% 15.0%
- Continued below Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 5
All Closed Positions Since Inception on October 29, 2010
Security Name Jiayuan.com 3D Systems Jiayuan.com International Caterpillar Syntel SPDR KBW Bank ETF Focus Media Panera Bread Ford Focus Media Renren Inc. OpenTable Tempur-Pedic Rovi Corp. OpenTable PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN LivePerson MercadoLibre LivePerson Volcano Corp Stratasys Silicon Motion Technology ProShares Short S&P 500 ProShares Short S&P 500 Entropic Communications Ford Avago Technologies PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN Ford MakeMyTrip Ltd. Ctrip.com Tempur-Pedic Travelzoo Guangshen Railway IPG Photonics SolarWinds OmniVision Technologies ProShares Short Russell 2000 ProShares Short S&P500 ProShares Short S&P 500 SPDR S&P 500 ETF 3D Systems SolarWinds NetApp ProShares Short S&P 500
Ticker Symbol DATE DDD DATE CAT SYNT KBE FMCN PNRA F FMCN RENN OPEN TPX ROVI OPEN
Entry Date 08/08/11 10/06/11 07/21/11 10/16/12 10/29/10 10/29/10 04/29/13 08/09/11 10/06/11 06/08/11 10/06/11 11/16/12 08/11/11 10/06/11 08/09/11
Avg. Entry Price $12.04 $16.16 $13.36 $83.48 $48.36 $22.59 $24.48 $101.23 $10.97 $28.48 $5.32 $38.74 $57.78 $44.25 $60.42
Dividends per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.12 $0.08 $0.41 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Exit Date 08/09/11 10/24/11 07/28/11 01/07/13 05/03/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 09/16/11 10/25/11 07/06/11 10/24/11 06/12/12 09/16/11 10/13/11 08/10/11
Exit Price $13.83 $18.48 $15.18 $94.57 $54.61 $25.47 $27.24 $114.07 $12.36 $32.02 $5.97 $42.87 $63.36 $48.41 $66.10
Percent of Portfolio* 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Total Return 14.9% 14.4% 13.6% 13.3% 13.2% 13.1% 12.9% 12.7% 12.7% 12.4% 12.2% 10.7% 9.7% 9.4% 9.4%
SZO
07/06/11
$43.71
$0.00
08/04/11
$47.80
10.0%
9.4%
LPSN MELI LPSN VOLC SSYS SIMO SH SH ENTR F AVGO
08/09/11 08/04/11 10/06/11 10/29/10 03/05/13 05/21/12 06/01/11 05/03/12 05/25/11 08/08/11 10/06/11
$10.86 $63.49 $10.04 $24.42 $70.80 $13.46 $40.66 $35.75 $8.63 $10.02 $33.08
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
08/12/11 08/12/11 10/13/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 06/06/12 08/04/11 05/21/12 07/06/11 08/09/11 10/17/11
$11.87 $69.12 $10.90 $26.48 $76.70 $14.58 $43.84 $38.49 $9.27 $10.76 $35.38
2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 20.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0%
9.3% 8.9% 8.6% 8.4% 8.3% 8.3% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.0%
SZO
05/11/11
$42.53
$0.00
06/17/11
$45.09
10.0%
6.0%
F MMYT CTRP TPX TZOO GSH IPGP SWI OVTI RWM SH SH SPY DDD SWI NTAP SH
03/05/13 06/06/11 06/09/11 10/16/12 07/21/11 10/29/10 03/05/13 10/16/12 06/03/11 05/12/11 10/01/12 05/12/11 04/29/11 03/05/13 05/21/12 10/29/10 08/09/11
$12.87 $23.69 $42.04 $33.04 $57.21 $20.34 $60.43 $53.88 $33.18 $29.46 $33.88 $40.67 $137.01 $35.74 $44.12 $53.25 $46.28
04/29/13 07/06/11 07/06/11 01/07/13 07/22/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 01/07/13 07/06/11 05/19/11 10/16/12 05/19/11 05/03/11 04/29/13 06/06/12 05/03/11 10/06/11
$13.64 $25.06 $44.25 $34.35 $59.40 $20.39 $61.97 $54.87 $33.32 $29.43 $33.79 $40.39 $135.97 $35.29 $43.56 $51.89 $44.88
3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 20.0%
6.0% 5.8% 5.3% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 2.5% 1.8% 0.4% -0.1% -0.3% -0.7% -0.8% -1.3% -1.3% -2.6% -3.0%
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.69 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
- Continued below Week Ended May 19, 2013
© Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Page 6
All Closed Positions Since Inception on October 29, 2010
Security Name Nuance Communications (sold short) ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 F5 Networks CTrip.com ProShares Short S&P 500 Tata Motors Caterpillar ProShares Short S&P 500 Renren Skyworks Solutions China Digital TV Yongye International AsiaInfo-Linkage Ballantyne Strong Rubicon Technology
Ticker Symbol NUAN SDS FFIV CTRP SH TTM CAT SH RENN SWKS STV YONG ASIA BTN RBCN
Entry Date 10/17/11 08/13/12 10/29/10 10/29/10 05/19/12 10/29/10 03/05/13 08/09/11 07/21/11 05/02/11 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 10/29/10 05/26/11
Avg. Entry Price $26.77 $14.55 $117.70 $52.06 $36.82 $28.12 $90.62 $44.62 $8.49 $29.31 $5.21 $8.02 $22.20 $8.42 $23.05
Dividends per Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Exit Date 11/16/11 09/06/12 11/11/11 05/03/11 09/06/12 05/03/11 04/29/13 11/16/11 08/09/11 01/30/12 01/30/12 05/18/11 01/30/12 01/30/12 03/09/12
Exit Price $25.55 $13.86 $111.10 $48.87 $34.36 $26.24 $84.53 $41.00 $7.52 $21.76 $3.53 $4.25 $11.48 $4.27 $8.94
Percent of Portfolio* 2.0% 10.0% 3.2% 3.2% 20.0% 3.2% 3.0% 20.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0%
Total Return -4.6% -4.7% -5.6% -6.1% -6.7% -6.7% -6.7% -8.1% -11.5% -25.8% -32.2% -47.0% -48.3% -49.3% -61.2%
This report is provided by David N. Frazier to persons who have asked Mr. Frazier to keep them informed of his analysis of developments in the economic and geopolitical environment, and other factors that tend to affect the financial markets, as well as his opinions regarding certain exchangetraded funds and common stocks. This publication is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any securities herein named. The information contained in this report has been obtained and compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, Mr. Frazier does not guarantee the completeness, accuracy, and/or usefulness of that information. That information should be used as references only with your own discretion. Mr. Frazier is not responsible for any errors and/or omissions that might be contained in this report. The content of this report should not be construed, under any circumstance, as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication that you will profit from any of Mr. Frazier’s recommendations or that any potential investment losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Any investment or trade recommendation made in this report is taken at your own risk for your own account. David N. Frazier does not guarantee, and readers of this report should not assume, that the future performance of his investment and/or trade recommendations will equal the past performance of those recommendations. Mr. Frazier may, at any time, invest in and trade the securities covered in this report. You are not to copy or redistributed this report without express written permission from David N. Frazier.
Published by: David N. Frazier Week Ended May 19, 2013
195 Soriano Drive © Frazier’s Perspective. All rights reserved.
Jupiter, FL 33458 Page 7
