KEEPING YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH CURRENT Illinois Bankers Association June 14, 2016 Lake Geneva, WI Chris Kornatowski Managing Director, ALM Consulting Atlanta, GA
[email protected] Intended for Institutional Clients Only See Page 21 for Important Disclaimers & Disclosures
©2015 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC
IT’S A NEW WORLD FOR RISK MANAGEMENT Olde World
New World
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Regulatory Exercise – “Check the Box”
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Strategic Exercise – Manage Risk/Performance
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Risk Silos
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Enterprise Risk
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Static Balance Sheet Assumptions
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Dynamic Balance Sheet Assumptions
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Earnings, Value at Risk
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Earnings, Value, Liquidity, Capital at Risk
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1 Year Horizon (Maybe 2)
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5 Year + Horizon
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“File Away and Repeat”
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Continuous Feedback Loop
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MODERN REGULATORY LANDSCAPE OCC: Supervisory Guidance on Model Risk Management (Apr 2011) Interagency Policy Statement on Funding & Liquidity Risk (Mar 2010) Joint Agency Policy Statement on IRR (Jun 1996)
Interagency FAQ: IRR Management (Jan 2012)
Interagency Advisory on IRRM (Jan 2010) New Capital Rule Community Bank Guide (July 2013)
FASB Current Expected Credit Loss (Jun 2016) FDIC FIL: Managing Sensitivity to Market Risk (Oct 2013)
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ELEMENTS OF AN EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAM Comprehensive Policies & Limits
Accountable Oversight by Board / Management
Robust Measurement & Monitoring Systems
Informed Decision Making (Action!)
Integrity of Data & Assumptions
Multi-Dimensional Risk Assessment & Reporting
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RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES • Risk Management policy structure can take many different forms – it’s the substance that matters • Review and modernize your policies to ensure regulatory compliance, sound corporate governance, and industry best practices
Financial Risk Management
Interest Rate Risk Management
ALM Policy
Hedging Policy
Investment Management
Investment Policy
Funding & Liquidity Risk Management
Funding Policy
Contingency Funding Plan
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ROLE OF POLICIES Define Objectives Assign Responsibilities and Authority Establish Controls and Procedures Define Risk Measures
• Why we are doing this? • Who will do this? • How will we do this? • What will we measure?
Establish Limits
• How much is “too much” (or “too little”)?
Establish Targets
• What amount is “just right”?
• Policies should be consistent across your organization and “fit” together • Be careful of “Targets” becoming “Limits” – Limits define maximum bounds for risk; Targets define how the institution “prefers” to operate in a perfect world • Policies should not be stagnant - Review, Update, and Approve your Policies at least Annually
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RISK MODEL ARCHITECTURE “Although institutions may rely on third-party IRR models, they are expected to fully understand the underlying analytics, assumptions, and methodologies.”1
Risk Model
Instrument Level Core Data Inputs
Contractual Terms Inputs
Market Data & Scenario Inputs
Behavioral Assumptions
Interest Rate Risk Outputs
Liquidity Risk Outputs
Capital Risk Outputs
Risk Tolerance
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RISK SIMULATION • Simulate impact of interest rate changes, growth projections, and other balance sheet scenarios on Earnings, Valuations, Liquidity and Capital
Earnings at Risk
Economic Value at Risk
Liquidity
GAAP Capital
• Net Interest Income • Net Income • Yields, Cost of Funds, ROA, ROE
• Economic Value of Assets, Liabilities, and Equity • EVE Ratio • Market value of bond portfolio
• • • •
Base case and stressed cash flow sources / uses Liquid asset balances Market value of unencumbered investment securities Available contingency fund sources
• Impact of rate changes on GAAP (Economic) Capital •Tax-adjusted AFS portfolio market value simulation •Tax-adjusted Cash Flow Hedge market value simulation •Simulation of post-tax, post-dividend Retained Earnings
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INTEGRITY OF BALANCE SHEET DATA
Position Data
Data should be captured from institution’s core systems (not Call Report), and include key contractual terms
Data Aggregation
Data may be be aggregated in the model according to instrument type and common attributes --- should be as granular as core systems
Contractual Terms
Principal amount, maturity, amortization, coupon, rate index, re-pricing frequency, interest accrual basis, caps / floors / options
Loans •Data from core loan system •Aggregation by loan type •All contractual terms modeled: •Current principal / coupon •Rate index / spread •Maturity / amortization •Caps / floors
Deposits & Borrowings •Data from core deposit system •Aggregation by deposit type •All contractual terms for term deposits, borrowing •Current principal / coupon •Rate index / spread •Maturity / amortization •Brokered deposits
Bond Portfolio •Often imported from broker system •Aggregation by bond type •AFS, HTM, HFT •Complex cash flows / valuations: •Call / put options •Prepayments •Step up coupons
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DATA AGGREGATION / ACCOUNT MAPPING • The risk model should be sufficiently robust to allow mapping of balance sheet instruments to a detailed chart of accounts • Instruments are channeled into accounts based on similarity of type, structure, and behaviors through the data mapping process • This detailed structure lends integrity to the analytical process: -
Similar “products” grouped together
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Unique behavioral assumptions set at a granular level
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Ability to isolate sources of risk
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Ability to model “what if?” at the product level
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INTEGRITY OF BEHAVIORAL ASSUMPTIONS • Meaningful and relevant assumptions lend value to risk analysis and turn a periodic, regulatory exercise into a strategic management process and…. “At a minimum, institutions should ensure the reasonableness of asset prepayments, non-maturity deposit price sensitivity and decay rates, and key rate drivers for each interest rate shock scenario.”1
DO
DON’T
Support and understand assumptions through quantitative & qualitative analysis
Default to non-relevant, industry or peer assumptions
Perform “sensitivity tests” to identify the most critical assumptions
Assume that all assumptions are of equal importance
Periodically revisit and evaluate assumptions for relevance / propriety
“Set and forget”, even if business situation is status quo
Formally document discussion, analysis and approval of assumptions and any changes
Assume regulators and / or successors will understand your train of thought
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MARKET RATE AND SCENARIO RATE INPUTS • All relevant market interest rate drivers should be incorporated into the model. For example: -
U.S. Treasury Curve
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USD LIBOR Curve
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FHLB Curve
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Fed Funds, Prime, Administered Rates “When conducting scenario analyses, institutions should assess a range of alternative future interest rate scenarios in evaluating IRR exposure.”1 Instantaneous, parallel curve “shocks”
-400 BP
-300 BP
-200 BP
-100 BP
-50 BP
Base
+50 BP
+100 BP
+200 BP
+300 BP
+400 BP
Non-parallel, curve “ramps” Bull Flat
Bull Steep
Base
Bear Flat Bear Steep
RJ
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QUARTERLY REPORT ELEMENTS • Risk reports come in many shapes and sizes, but should meet several key objectives: -
Appropriate level of detail for multiple audiences (Management, ALCO, Board)
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Ability to “drill down” from risks in summary report to sources in detail reports
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Easily identify “out of policy” risk simulation results
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Provide for prior period comparisons and trends
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Detailed documentation of critical model assumptions
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Meet regulatory requirements and serve as a strategic risk management tool
Quarterly Report Package
Executive Summary
Current Period Results
Prior Period Results
Board Reports
Pro Forma Reports
Policy Indicators
ALCO Reports
Trend Indicators
Assumption Summary
Detail Reports
FAS 107
Back-Test
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UNDERSTANDING RISK • Risk reporting should answer critical questions and lead you to appropriate, strategic action: • Earnings
• Loans
• Valuation
• Bond portfolio
• Liquidity
• Deposits
• Capital
• Borrowings
• Loan structure
What is at risk?
Where is the risk?
How to address risk?
Why is risk appearing?
• Bond portfolio
• Repricing mismatch
• Funding mix
• Optionality
• Derivatives
• A/L “behavior” • Growth / runoff 14
TAKING STRATEGIC ACTION “…effective IRR management not only involves the identification and measurement of IRR, but also provides for appropriate actions to control this risk.”1 Balance Sheet Mix • New / de-emphasized products • Offering terms IRR Risk Reduction Product Mix / Terms Bond Portfolio Loan Products Funding / Capital Derivatives
Bond Portfolio • Adjust duration • Portfolio ladders, barbells • Intent classification (AFS → HTM) Whole Loans / Pools • SBA Floaters, ARMS, Autos, CLOs • Commercial / CRE Funding / Capital • New / restructured wholesale funding • Equity & Debt Capital Derivatives • Commercial Loan Hedging • Structured Funding 15
BOARD ENGAGEMENT “…guidance identifies the board of directors as having the ultimate responsibility for the risks undertaken by an institution… they should understand and be regularly informed about the level and trend of their institutions’ IRR exposure.”1 • The Board, or its delegated committee, should oversee the establishment, approval, implementation, and annual review of: -
Policies and internal control procedures
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Risk tolerance limits
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Risk measurement systems
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Risk mitigation strategies
• Board risk reporting should be appropriate for their level of expertise • Board and management must be actively engaged in controlling risk • Evaluating strategies is part of risk management • Make sure strategy evaluations are well documented --- even if you don’t execute them
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MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT “Banking organizations should be attentive to the possible adverse consequences (including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused, and should address those consequences through active model risk management…”2
• Model Risk Management incorporates various periodic (typically, annual) processes which incorporate the following:
Model Certification
Testing and certification of the mechanical and mathematical soundness of the modeling software, performed by an independent party
Model Validation
Evaluation of the entire risk modeling process: data inputs, model calculations / functioning, assumptions, model results, and reporting, performed by an independent party
Back-Testing
Comparing model outputs (projections) to actual results
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SUMMARY – FORMULA FOR EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT Comprehensive Policies & Procedures
Robust Analytical Model
Integrity of Data & Assumptions
Multi-Dimensional Risk Assessment & Reporting
Informed Decision Making
Accountable Oversight by Board / Management
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QUESTIONS
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SOURCES 1Interagency 2Guidance
Advisory on Interest Rate Risk Management – January 6, 2010
on Model Risk Management Fed SR Letter 11-7 & OCC 2011-12 (4-4-11)
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