Wildfire, Prescribed Wildfire, Prescribed Fire, and Climate Change in ...
Wildfire, Prescribed Fire, and Climate Change in Florida June 12 12, 2007 Kevin Robertson Robertson, PhD Tall Timbers Research Station
Overview: 1)) Effects of fire on CO2 emissions
2) Effects of climate change on fire
Sweat Farm Road Fire, May 2007
CO2 + H2O + heat CH4 + 2O2
Florida forests
CO2
Wildland fire 13 million t tons
CO
Carbon fixation approx. 2 13 million tons
Fossil fuels 260 million tons
Florida
Fire in Florida
Prescribed burning: 12.8 million tons C/yr Wildfires: 1.6 million t tons C/yr C/ Wade Tract, Georgia
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
Tall Timbers Fire Plots, Tallahassee, Florida
1 yr interval plot
1Y Year IInterval t l
2Y Year IInterval t l
3 Year Interval
40 Years No Fire
St dd d Plot Stoddard Pl t Soil S il Carbon C b 0-5 cm 5-10 cm 10-20 cm
8
%C
6 4 2 0 1
2
3
4
5
7
Fire Interval
9
12
45
200
Tall Timbers Fire Plots Carbon Budget Est. Winter 2005 Hardwood trees Pine trees R Resprouts t Herbs Dead biomass Roots Soil C
180
Carbo on (tonne es/ha)
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1
2 3 Fire Interval (yrs)
40
2 yr vs. 40 year unburned Mineral nutrients
Burned Not Burned 50
40
A.
* 30
*
30
PPM M
PPM M
40
B.
20
20
*
10
10 0
A
0
Bt
A
P 150 125
K 600
C.
500
*
D.
*
400 PPM
100 PPM
Bt
75
300
50
200
25
100
0
0 A
Bt Mg
A
Bt Ca
Frequent prescribed burning in pinelands: • does not reduce soil health and sustainability and may improve it • ensures future forest productivity (carbon sequestration) • results lt in i iincreased d soilil carbon b storage t
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
Wildfires: d es • may cause soil sterilization and loss of plant seeds and root stocks • have higher rates of N mineralization and subsequent leaching • more efficiently volatize nutrients • produce less charcoal over time
Greater concerns: • Increased population (+10 million by 2030?) • Loss of forest lands in Florida ((2-3 million acres by 2030?) • Increase in pine plantations relative to natural forests • Increasing wildland-urban interface
Effects of climate change on fire?
Potential effects of climate change in Florida: • Temperature increase, increase especially in summer • Longer fire season • Changes in total precipitation
Florida: neutral to positive change in rainfall so far
Tallahassee Rainfall Analysis James O’Brien June 5, 2007
Year
Cumulative Departu C ure (in)
Cumulative Departure From Mean 100 50 0 -50 -100 100 Annual Rainfall (in)
2004
2000
1996
199
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1948
Rainfall (in) R
Tallahassee Rainfall (in)
Potential effects of climate change in Florida: • Temperature increase, increase especially in summer • Longer fire season • Changes in total precipitation (+/-)? • More M extreme, more ffrequent droughts d h • Decrease in forest health and productivity • Sea level rise
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose
oo-Sweat Farm Road-Turnaround Fire Complex 200
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose • Reduces fuel loading
Pebble Hill Plantation, Georgia
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose • Reduces fuel loading • Less particulate emissions per event
Prescribed Fire, Wade Tract, Georgia
Wildfire, Sweat Farm Road, May 2007
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose • Reduces fuel loading • Less particulate emissions per event • Ecosystem sustainability
Fire in Florida
Wade Tract, Georgia
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
General Conclusions • Productivity (C sequestration) in Florida forests is sustainable with regard to fire • Frequent prescribed burning is likely more sustainable than infrequent q wildfires • Increased population and forest loss is a greater concern than fire with regard g to carbon emissions • Climate change is likely to make wildfires more common and severe • Prescribed fire will reduce impacts of wildfire
Thanks
Overview: 1)) Effects of fire on CO2 emissions
2) Effects of climate change on fire
Sweat Farm Road Fire, May 2007
CO2 + H2O + heat CH4 + 2O2
Florida forests
CO2
Wildland fire 13 million t tons
CO
Carbon fixation approx. 2 13 million tons
Fossil fuels 260 million tons
Florida
Fire in Florida
Prescribed burning: 12.8 million tons C/yr Wildfires: 1.6 million t tons C/yr C/ Wade Tract, Georgia
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
Tall Timbers Fire Plots, Tallahassee, Florida
1 yr interval plot
1Y Year IInterval t l
2Y Year IInterval t l
3 Year Interval
40 Years No Fire
St dd d Plot Stoddard Pl t Soil S il Carbon C b 0-5 cm 5-10 cm 10-20 cm
8
%C
6 4 2 0 1
2
3
4
5
7
Fire Interval
9
12
45
200
Tall Timbers Fire Plots Carbon Budget Est. Winter 2005 Hardwood trees Pine trees R Resprouts t Herbs Dead biomass Roots Soil C
180
Carbo on (tonne es/ha)
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1
2 3 Fire Interval (yrs)
40
2 yr vs. 40 year unburned Mineral nutrients
Burned Not Burned 50
40
A.
* 30
*
30
PPM M
PPM M
40
B.
20
20
*
10
10 0
A
0
Bt
A
P 150 125
K 600
C.
500
*
D.
*
400 PPM
100 PPM
Bt
75
300
50
200
25
100
0
0 A
Bt Mg
A
Bt Ca
Frequent prescribed burning in pinelands: • does not reduce soil health and sustainability and may improve it • ensures future forest productivity (carbon sequestration) • results lt in i iincreased d soilil carbon b storage t
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
Wildfires: d es • may cause soil sterilization and loss of plant seeds and root stocks • have higher rates of N mineralization and subsequent leaching • more efficiently volatize nutrients • produce less charcoal over time
Greater concerns: • Increased population (+10 million by 2030?) • Loss of forest lands in Florida ((2-3 million acres by 2030?) • Increase in pine plantations relative to natural forests • Increasing wildland-urban interface
Effects of climate change on fire?
Potential effects of climate change in Florida: • Temperature increase, increase especially in summer • Longer fire season • Changes in total precipitation
Florida: neutral to positive change in rainfall so far
Tallahassee Rainfall Analysis James O’Brien June 5, 2007
Year
Cumulative Departu C ure (in)
Cumulative Departure From Mean 100 50 0 -50 -100 100 Annual Rainfall (in)
2004
2000
1996
199
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1948
Rainfall (in) R
Tallahassee Rainfall (in)
Potential effects of climate change in Florida: • Temperature increase, increase especially in summer • Longer fire season • Changes in total precipitation (+/-)? • More M extreme, more ffrequent droughts d h • Decrease in forest health and productivity • Sea level rise
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose
oo-Sweat Farm Road-Turnaround Fire Complex 200
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose • Reduces fuel loading
Pebble Hill Plantation, Georgia
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose • Reduces fuel loading • Less particulate emissions per event
Prescribed Fire, Wade Tract, Georgia
Wildfire, Sweat Farm Road, May 2007
Prescribed fire: • Conducted under conditions that we choose • Reduces fuel loading • Less particulate emissions per event • Ecosystem sustainability
Fire in Florida
Wade Tract, Georgia
Big Turnaround Fire, May 2007
General Conclusions • Productivity (C sequestration) in Florida forests is sustainable with regard to fire • Frequent prescribed burning is likely more sustainable than infrequent q wildfires • Increased population and forest loss is a greater concern than fire with regard g to carbon emissions • Climate change is likely to make wildfires more common and severe • Prescribed fire will reduce impacts of wildfire
Thanks
