WNING BR WNING BR
July 2014
Changing Climate the Outlook for Grain U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL From the producers of the:
BR WNING
World Reports Covering Climate, Behavior, and Commodities
©Evelyn Browning Garriss
E
W
S
L
Historical Perspectives
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T
T
E
R
www.BrowningNewsletter.com
CONCLUSIONS •
Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows.
•
Because of the recent polar eruptions, there was a cooler, stormier Midwestern and Eastern winter and spring and a volatile early summer. Drought should increase in California. Two large equatorial volcano eruptions will shape the next 3 years.
•
The warm phase of the AMO has created hotter summers and stormier winters, springs, and hurricane seasons. It creates drier conditions in the Middle East and US Great Plains and Prairies. The effect should last 15-20 more years.
•
There were summertime El Niño conditions and there is a 80% chance of an El Niño. Historically, for the US, this means good growing conditions, a quieter hurricane season, a milder winter in the North and stormier winters in California and the South. It brings droughts to India, Australia, SE Asia and good conditions for South America.
•
The PDO has changed and is creating more extreme global weather for the next 15 – 20 years. In the US, this means more Western and Great Plains droughts
1. The climate is determined by: • How much solar radiation the Earth receives (the Sun). • The patterns of where the solar radiation falls or is reflected (Clouds/Volcanoes). • Where the heat from the solar radiation is stored (Oceans/Urban Heat Islands).
N
Original Papers
• Historical Records • Tree & coral rings • Lake sediment and • Glacial core records to learn how these factors affected climate in the past.
2. Methodology - look at the natural factors shaping the upcoming weather and use
FIG. 2 El Niño
courtesy: NOAA
3. The four major factors that will be shaping North American weather are: • The debris from major volcanic eruptions in the polar air mass cooling the Arctic. • The Atlantic Ocean is very warm. • An El Niño is developing. • The Pacific has changed to a long-term trend that steers colder water against the West Coast. 4. Volcanic activity If a volcanic eruption is large enough its ashes and chemicals screen out incoming sunlight. The debris can linger in the atmosphere for weeks or even years. This changes air pressure and winds. It also gathers moisture, forming thick clouds that ultimately cause heavy rainfall and blizzards. (see figure 1) 5. Over the past decade, polar volcanoes have been more active in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. • This has reduced sunlight in the Arctic, which produced more storms and cooling temperatures. • For example, due to two large 2011 polar eruptions, last summer the Arctic was the coldest ever recorded. • Last winter the circumpolar winds were weaker and the frigid air escaped south. • The collision of the lingering Arctic air mass and warm Gulf air made a volatile summer with wide temperature swings and severe storms.
FIG. 1 How volcanic aerosols affect the weather.
• Hotter summers in the East ern and Central US. • Colder stormier winters and springs with more floods and erosion in the Midwest and East Coast.
goes up. This happened in the 1970s and during the past seven years. Now US agriculture and most global food production are very vulnerable to La Niña droughts.
FIG. 5 From the mid 1970s to the late 1990s 7. The Pacific – There are the US and Canada enjoyed the most beJUNE /JULY/AUGUST summertime El Niño condinign combination of the PDO and AMO. El Niño Precipitation Anomalies tions and there is an 80% chance of an El Niño this fall, winter and early spring. Historically this means a milder hurricane season and a wetter winter and spring in the southern tier of states. There is a higher risk of wintertime flooding in California and tornadoes in the South. Warmer winters in the northern tier of states frequently lower the SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER/NOVEMBER costs of energy. El Niño Precipitation Anomalies FIG. 6A-B Since 2006, the two oceans have 8. The Pacific has a longcombined to create a greater risk of dry FIG. 3A-B http://www.knmi.nl/research/global_climate/enso/effects/ term oscillation, the Pacific weather in the West and Great Plains. As the Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Scientists say that it tipped toward its cool phase east Pacific changes from cool to warm and 6. The Warm Atlantic – back again, drought hits much of the nation The Atlantic has entered the warm phase of a in 2006. It alters rain and snow patterns for months, even years at a time. around the world and increases the risk 60-70 year cycle. The Gulf Stream and other tropical currents are flowing faster, heating the of drought and wildfires in southern Great Plains and the West. It North Atlantic. This warm phase should last increases the risk for flooding in 15-20 more years. parts of the Midwest. It usually creates: • More frequent droughts in the Southern 9. When the PDO reaches a and Central Plains, and the South. tipping point the price of food FIG. 4
The PDO’s impact on precipitation
Winners
Losers
Midwest US
California
stronger monsoons
weaker monsoon
Northern and Central China
Southern China
stronger monsoons
weaker monsoon
India
Pakistan
stronger monsoons
weaker monsoon
Japan Brazil Southern Africa
North Korea Andes Republics/ Southern Argentina East Africa
stronger monsoon
weaker monsoon
Eastern Australia
Western Australia
The BROWNING NEWSLETTER is published monthly at an annual subscription rate of $295 for print or email versions, $325 for both versions. www.BrowningNewsletter.com
For a free sample of the Browning Newsletter contact us at [email protected] or call 1-704-471-0176 contact us at: [email protected] or call: 1-802-658-0322
Changing Climate the Outlook for Grain U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL From the producers of the:
BR WNING
World Reports Covering Climate, Behavior, and Commodities
©Evelyn Browning Garriss
E
W
S
L
Historical Perspectives
E
T
T
E
R
www.BrowningNewsletter.com
CONCLUSIONS •
Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows.
•
Because of the recent polar eruptions, there was a cooler, stormier Midwestern and Eastern winter and spring and a volatile early summer. Drought should increase in California. Two large equatorial volcano eruptions will shape the next 3 years.
•
The warm phase of the AMO has created hotter summers and stormier winters, springs, and hurricane seasons. It creates drier conditions in the Middle East and US Great Plains and Prairies. The effect should last 15-20 more years.
•
There were summertime El Niño conditions and there is a 80% chance of an El Niño. Historically, for the US, this means good growing conditions, a quieter hurricane season, a milder winter in the North and stormier winters in California and the South. It brings droughts to India, Australia, SE Asia and good conditions for South America.
•
The PDO has changed and is creating more extreme global weather for the next 15 – 20 years. In the US, this means more Western and Great Plains droughts
1. The climate is determined by: • How much solar radiation the Earth receives (the Sun). • The patterns of where the solar radiation falls or is reflected (Clouds/Volcanoes). • Where the heat from the solar radiation is stored (Oceans/Urban Heat Islands).
N
Original Papers
• Historical Records • Tree & coral rings • Lake sediment and • Glacial core records to learn how these factors affected climate in the past.
2. Methodology - look at the natural factors shaping the upcoming weather and use
FIG. 2 El Niño
courtesy: NOAA
3. The four major factors that will be shaping North American weather are: • The debris from major volcanic eruptions in the polar air mass cooling the Arctic. • The Atlantic Ocean is very warm. • An El Niño is developing. • The Pacific has changed to a long-term trend that steers colder water against the West Coast. 4. Volcanic activity If a volcanic eruption is large enough its ashes and chemicals screen out incoming sunlight. The debris can linger in the atmosphere for weeks or even years. This changes air pressure and winds. It also gathers moisture, forming thick clouds that ultimately cause heavy rainfall and blizzards. (see figure 1) 5. Over the past decade, polar volcanoes have been more active in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. • This has reduced sunlight in the Arctic, which produced more storms and cooling temperatures. • For example, due to two large 2011 polar eruptions, last summer the Arctic was the coldest ever recorded. • Last winter the circumpolar winds were weaker and the frigid air escaped south. • The collision of the lingering Arctic air mass and warm Gulf air made a volatile summer with wide temperature swings and severe storms.
FIG. 1 How volcanic aerosols affect the weather.
• Hotter summers in the East ern and Central US. • Colder stormier winters and springs with more floods and erosion in the Midwest and East Coast.
goes up. This happened in the 1970s and during the past seven years. Now US agriculture and most global food production are very vulnerable to La Niña droughts.
FIG. 5 From the mid 1970s to the late 1990s 7. The Pacific – There are the US and Canada enjoyed the most beJUNE /JULY/AUGUST summertime El Niño condinign combination of the PDO and AMO. El Niño Precipitation Anomalies tions and there is an 80% chance of an El Niño this fall, winter and early spring. Historically this means a milder hurricane season and a wetter winter and spring in the southern tier of states. There is a higher risk of wintertime flooding in California and tornadoes in the South. Warmer winters in the northern tier of states frequently lower the SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER/NOVEMBER costs of energy. El Niño Precipitation Anomalies FIG. 6A-B Since 2006, the two oceans have 8. The Pacific has a longcombined to create a greater risk of dry FIG. 3A-B http://www.knmi.nl/research/global_climate/enso/effects/ term oscillation, the Pacific weather in the West and Great Plains. As the Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Scientists say that it tipped toward its cool phase east Pacific changes from cool to warm and 6. The Warm Atlantic – back again, drought hits much of the nation The Atlantic has entered the warm phase of a in 2006. It alters rain and snow patterns for months, even years at a time. around the world and increases the risk 60-70 year cycle. The Gulf Stream and other tropical currents are flowing faster, heating the of drought and wildfires in southern Great Plains and the West. It North Atlantic. This warm phase should last increases the risk for flooding in 15-20 more years. parts of the Midwest. It usually creates: • More frequent droughts in the Southern 9. When the PDO reaches a and Central Plains, and the South. tipping point the price of food FIG. 4
The PDO’s impact on precipitation
Winners
Losers
Midwest US
California
stronger monsoons
weaker monsoon
Northern and Central China
Southern China
stronger monsoons
weaker monsoon
India
Pakistan
stronger monsoons
weaker monsoon
Japan Brazil Southern Africa
North Korea Andes Republics/ Southern Argentina East Africa
stronger monsoon
weaker monsoon
Eastern Australia
Western Australia
The BROWNING NEWSLETTER is published monthly at an annual subscription rate of $295 for print or email versions, $325 for both versions. www.BrowningNewsletter.com
For a free sample of the Browning Newsletter contact us at [email protected] or call 1-704-471-0176 contact us at: [email protected] or call: 1-802-658-0322
