World Energy Outlook 2006 AWS
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
World Energy Outlook 2006 Ambassador William C. Ramsay Deputy Executive Director International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand 18 000
Other renewables Nuclear Biomass
16 000 14 000
Gas
Mtoe
12 000 10 000
Coal
8 000 6 000 4 000
Oil
2 000 0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms © OECD/IEA - 2006
World Primary Energy Demand by Region in 2004 Rest of the world 23% OECD 49%
Brazil 2% Russia 6% India 5% China 15%
OECD currently accounts for a half of the global energy demand © OECD/IEA - 2006
Resources to Reserves to Production
Oil resources are finite but we are far from exhausting them The “earliest oil” is concentrated in MENA © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Increase in World Oil Supply, 2004-2030 25 20
mb/d
Other
15 Iran
10 5
Iraq S.Arabia
0 OPEC conventional
Non-conventional
Non-OPEC conventional
The share of OPEC in world oil supply increases sharply as conventional non-OPEC production peaks towards the middle of next decade © OECD/IEA - 2006
New Oil & Gas Upstream Investment by Source and Destination, 2006-2010 Total investment = $306 billion
Rest of world OPEC 7%
Rest of world
13%
59%
OECD 80%
Source of investment by company base
OECD 19%
OPEC 23%
Distribution of investment
Oil and gas companies based on OECD countries continue to dominate global upstream investment, most of which will go to non-OECD © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
World Inter-regional Natural Gas Trade 1 000 800
bcm
600 400 200 0 2000
2004
2010 Pipelines
2015
2020
2030
LNG
Global gas trade expands by 1.5 times, with two-thirds of the increase coming from Russia, the Middle East & North Africa – mostly as LNG © OECD/IEA - 2006
Annual Increase in Coal Demand
500
million tonnes
400 300 200 100 0 -100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 China
Rest of the world
Global coal demand in the recent years has grown much faster than previously – mainly driven by China © OECD/IEA - 2006
World Primary Coal Demand Reality?
4000
Reference Scenario
3500
5000
3000
Alternative Policy Scenario
actual
2000
3000
1500
2000
1000 1000 500 0 1970
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
High Oil & Gas prices have prompted a phenomenal coal response without clean coal and other technologies this is not sustainable © OECD/IEA - 2006
mtce
mtoe
2500
4000
Reference Scenario:
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel 50
billion tonnes
40 30
Increase of 14.3 Gt (55%)
20 10 0 1990
2004 Coal
2010 Oil
2015
2030 Gas
Half of the projected increase in emissions come from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region 15
Rest of non-OECD
Gigatonnes of CO2
12 China
9 6
Rest of OECD
United States
3 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030 © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Cumulative Investment, 2005-2030 $20.2 trillion (in $2005) Electricity 56%
Oil 21% $4.3 trillion
$3.9 trillion Gas 19%
rillion $0.6 t
Biofuels 1%
$11.3 trillion
Coal 3%
Investment needs exceed $20 trillion – $3 trillion more than previously projected, mainly because of higher unit costs © OECD/IEA - 2006
Global Upstream Oil & Gas Investment: Impact of Cost Inflation 300
index (year 2000 = 100)
actual
forecast
250 200 150 100 Year 2000
50 2000
2002 Nominal
2004
2006
2008
2010
Adjusted for cost inflation
Annual upstream investment doubled to $225 billion between 2000 and 2005, but most of the increase was due to cost inflation © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
0
50%
-2
45%
-4
40%
-6
35%
-8
30% 2005
OPEC market share
mb/d
Impact of Deferred Investment on Oil Demand and OPEC Market Share
2010 2015 2020 2030 Reduction in world oil demand Reference Scenario (right axis) Deferred Investment Case (right axis)
Lower OPEC production pushes up prices, curbing demand & cutting OPEC’s market share
© OECD/IEA - 2006
2003 Blackout Case Studies: Italy - Switzerland
Consequence of under investment impairs security © OECD/IEA - 2006
Energy Poverty: Annual Deaths from Indoor Air Pollution 3
2.8
2 millions
1.6 1.2
1.3
Malaria
Smoke from biomass
1
0 Tuberculosis
HIV/AIDS
Source: World Health Organization
The number of people using dirty traditional biomass for cooking is set to grow from 2.5 billion now to 2.7 billion in 2030 absent new policies © OECD/IEA - 2006
The unmeasured impact of High Prices The "Charcoal Web" in Central African Republic
WEO-2002, NASDA and Radar Technologies France
Non OECD Energy Subsidies amount to 250 billion dollars a year More than 3 times total OECD overseas development assistance spent in 2004 © OECD/IEA - 2006
Distance Travelled to Collect Fuelwood
© OECD/IEA - 2006
The Energy Future Absent New Policies z Security of oil supply is threatened Oil production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak Production will be increasingly concentrated in a small
number of countries
z Gas security is also a growing concern Europe’s production has already peaked - US to follow Import dependence in both regions & other key regions
will grow absent new policies
z Investment over the next decade will lock in technology that will remain in use for up to 60 years
© OECD/IEA - 2006
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Alternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario: Mapping a Better Energy Future z Analyses impact of government policies under consideration to enhance security & curb emissions z Demonstrates that we can significantly reduce growth in energy demand & emissions and stimulate alternative energy production Oil demand is reduced by 13 mb/d in 2030 - equivalent to
current output of Saudi Arabia & Iran Oil savings in 2015 savings reach 5 mb/d CO2 emissions are 6.3 Gt (16%) lower in 2030 – equivalent to the current emissions of US and Canada
z Delaying action by 10 years would reduce the impact on emissions in 2030 by three-quarters
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
OECD Oil Imports 36 34
mb/d
5.2 mb/d 32
1.8 mb/d
30 28 26 2005
2010
2015
Reference Scenario
2020
2025
2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
In stark contrast with the Reference Scenario, OECD oil imports level off soon after 2015 & then begin to decline © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Global Oil Supply 50%
120 100
mb/d
60 40
40%
OPEC market share
45%
80
20 0
35% 2005
2015
2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
Reduction compared with Reference Scenario
OPEC share in APS (right axis)
OPEC share in RS (right axis)
OPEC’s share of global oil production rises from 40% now to 43% in 2030 in the APS, compared with a jump to 49% in the RS © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Gas Imports, 2004-2030 800 - 90 bcm
bcm
600
400
200
- 46 bcm
- 33 bcm
0 United States 2004
European Union Reference Scenario 2030
Japan
Alternative Policy Scenario 2030
Gas imports in the main consuming regions are significantly lower in the APS compared with the RS © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Key Policies for CO2 Reduction 42 Increased nuclear (10%) Increased renewables (12%) Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)
38 Gt of CO2
Reference Scenario
Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)
34
Alternative Policy Scenario
30
26 2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Improved end-use efficiency accounts for over two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario :
Key policies that Make a Global Difference Energy efficiency US
z Tighter CAFE standards z Improved efficiency in residential & commercial sectors
EU
z Increased vehicle fuel economy z Improved efficiency in electricity use in the commercial sector
China
z Improved efficiency in electricity use in industry z Improved efficiency in electricity use in the residential sector
Power generation z Increased use of renewables z Increased use of renewables z Nuclear plant lifetime extensions z Increased efficiency of coal-fired plants z Increased use of renewables z Increased reliance on nuclear
A dozen policies in the US, EU & China account for around 40% of the global emissions reduction in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Cost Effectiveness of Policies z Total energy investment – from production to consumption – is lower than in the RS z Consumers spend $2.4 trillion more in 2005-2030 in more efficient cars, refrigerators etc z ..but $3 trillion less investment is required on the supply side ¾ Each $1 invested in more efficient electrical appliances saves
$2.2 in investment in power plants & networks ¾ Each $1 invested in more efficient oil-consuming equipment
(mainly cars) saves $2.4 in oil imports to 2030 z The higher initial investment by consumers is more than offset by fuel-cost savings
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Investment Payback Periods 9 OECD
8
Non-OECD
7
years
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005-2015
2016-2030
2005-2015
2016-2030
Cars Electrical equipment (refrigerators, washing machines, lighting, air conditioning) Motors in industy
The payback periods of new policies are very short, especially in non-OECD countries for policies introduced before 2015 © OECD/IEA - 2006
Renewed Interest in Nuclear Power z Growing concerns over energy security, surging fossil-fuel prices & rising carbon emissions z Positive aspects of nuclear power proven technology for large-scale baseload electricity
generation reduce dependence on imported gas no emissions of greenhouse gases or local pollutants produces electricity at competitive & stable cost uranium resources abundant & widespread
z But governments need to play a stronger role in facilitating investment where nuclear is accepted © OECD/IEA - 2006
Impact of a 50% Increase in Fuel Price on Generating Costs
increase in generating cost
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Wind
Nuclear
IGCC
Coal steam
CCGT
Nuclear generating costs are far less sensitive to fuel price increases than gas or coal plants © OECD/IEA - 2006
Outlook for Biofuels z Interest in biofuels is soaring z Biofuels can help address growing energy security & climate change threats by: Increasing diversity of geographic & fuel sources Lowering greenhouse-gas emissions - depending on how
they are produced
z Higher oil prices have made biofuels more competitive, but further cost reductions are needed z Availability of arable land will constrain biofuels potential medium term z Long-term prospects hinge on new technology © OECD/IEA - 2006
Share of Biofuels in Road-Transport Fuel Consumption 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% World 2004
United States European Union
2030 Reference Scenario
Brazil
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
Biofuels are set to play a much larger role in meeting world roadtransport fuel demand © OECD/IEA - 2006
Global CO2 Emissions 2003 -2050, Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios Mt CO2 60 000
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
50 000
Other Buildings
40 000
Transport
+21%
30 000
Industry
+27%
Transformation
+6% -16%
20 000
Power Generation
10 000
0 2003
Baseline Baseline 2030 2050
Map
No CCS
Low TECH Plus Efficiency 2050
For a truly sustainable energy system, technological breakthroughs will also be needed © OECD/IEA - 2006
Oil Self-Sufficiency in Brazil
barrels per thousand dollars of GDP*
0.6
Domestic crude production more than triples in the first half of the 1980s
0.5 0.4
Increase in domestic crude production and slowdown in demand growth
0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 1970
Self-sufficiency achieved
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Brazil will remain self-sufficient as long as necessary upstream investments are forthcoming © OECD/IEA - 2006
Summing Up z On current trends, we are on course for an unstable, dirty & expensive energy future z In response, urgent government policy action is required in two key areas: ¾ Promoting energy investment ¾ Promoting energy efficiency z In addition to improving energy security and the environment, these policies also make economic sense z The WEO sets out the essential first steps on a path towards a clean, clever and competitive energy future z For a truly sustainable energy system, technological breakthroughs will also be needed © OECD/IEA - 2006
World Energy Outlook 2006 Ambassador William C. Ramsay Deputy Executive Director International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand 18 000
Other renewables Nuclear Biomass
16 000 14 000
Gas
Mtoe
12 000 10 000
Coal
8 000 6 000 4 000
Oil
2 000 0 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms © OECD/IEA - 2006
World Primary Energy Demand by Region in 2004 Rest of the world 23% OECD 49%
Brazil 2% Russia 6% India 5% China 15%
OECD currently accounts for a half of the global energy demand © OECD/IEA - 2006
Resources to Reserves to Production
Oil resources are finite but we are far from exhausting them The “earliest oil” is concentrated in MENA © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Increase in World Oil Supply, 2004-2030 25 20
mb/d
Other
15 Iran
10 5
Iraq S.Arabia
0 OPEC conventional
Non-conventional
Non-OPEC conventional
The share of OPEC in world oil supply increases sharply as conventional non-OPEC production peaks towards the middle of next decade © OECD/IEA - 2006
New Oil & Gas Upstream Investment by Source and Destination, 2006-2010 Total investment = $306 billion
Rest of world OPEC 7%
Rest of world
13%
59%
OECD 80%
Source of investment by company base
OECD 19%
OPEC 23%
Distribution of investment
Oil and gas companies based on OECD countries continue to dominate global upstream investment, most of which will go to non-OECD © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
World Inter-regional Natural Gas Trade 1 000 800
bcm
600 400 200 0 2000
2004
2010 Pipelines
2015
2020
2030
LNG
Global gas trade expands by 1.5 times, with two-thirds of the increase coming from Russia, the Middle East & North Africa – mostly as LNG © OECD/IEA - 2006
Annual Increase in Coal Demand
500
million tonnes
400 300 200 100 0 -100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 China
Rest of the world
Global coal demand in the recent years has grown much faster than previously – mainly driven by China © OECD/IEA - 2006
World Primary Coal Demand Reality?
4000
Reference Scenario
3500
5000
3000
Alternative Policy Scenario
actual
2000
3000
1500
2000
1000 1000 500 0 1970
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
High Oil & Gas prices have prompted a phenomenal coal response without clean coal and other technologies this is not sustainable © OECD/IEA - 2006
mtce
mtoe
2500
4000
Reference Scenario:
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Fuel 50
billion tonnes
40 30
Increase of 14.3 Gt (55%)
20 10 0 1990
2004 Coal
2010 Oil
2015
2030 Gas
Half of the projected increase in emissions come from new power stations, mainly using coal & mainly located in China & India © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region 15
Rest of non-OECD
Gigatonnes of CO2
12 China
9 6
Rest of OECD
United States
3 0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030 © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
Cumulative Investment, 2005-2030 $20.2 trillion (in $2005) Electricity 56%
Oil 21% $4.3 trillion
$3.9 trillion Gas 19%
rillion $0.6 t
Biofuels 1%
$11.3 trillion
Coal 3%
Investment needs exceed $20 trillion – $3 trillion more than previously projected, mainly because of higher unit costs © OECD/IEA - 2006
Global Upstream Oil & Gas Investment: Impact of Cost Inflation 300
index (year 2000 = 100)
actual
forecast
250 200 150 100 Year 2000
50 2000
2002 Nominal
2004
2006
2008
2010
Adjusted for cost inflation
Annual upstream investment doubled to $225 billion between 2000 and 2005, but most of the increase was due to cost inflation © OECD/IEA - 2006
Reference Scenario:
0
50%
-2
45%
-4
40%
-6
35%
-8
30% 2005
OPEC market share
mb/d
Impact of Deferred Investment on Oil Demand and OPEC Market Share
2010 2015 2020 2030 Reduction in world oil demand Reference Scenario (right axis) Deferred Investment Case (right axis)
Lower OPEC production pushes up prices, curbing demand & cutting OPEC’s market share
© OECD/IEA - 2006
2003 Blackout Case Studies: Italy - Switzerland
Consequence of under investment impairs security © OECD/IEA - 2006
Energy Poverty: Annual Deaths from Indoor Air Pollution 3
2.8
2 millions
1.6 1.2
1.3
Malaria
Smoke from biomass
1
0 Tuberculosis
HIV/AIDS
Source: World Health Organization
The number of people using dirty traditional biomass for cooking is set to grow from 2.5 billion now to 2.7 billion in 2030 absent new policies © OECD/IEA - 2006
The unmeasured impact of High Prices The "Charcoal Web" in Central African Republic
WEO-2002, NASDA and Radar Technologies France
Non OECD Energy Subsidies amount to 250 billion dollars a year More than 3 times total OECD overseas development assistance spent in 2004 © OECD/IEA - 2006
Distance Travelled to Collect Fuelwood
© OECD/IEA - 2006
The Energy Future Absent New Policies z Security of oil supply is threatened Oil production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak Production will be increasingly concentrated in a small
number of countries
z Gas security is also a growing concern Europe’s production has already peaked - US to follow Import dependence in both regions & other key regions
will grow absent new policies
z Investment over the next decade will lock in technology that will remain in use for up to 60 years
© OECD/IEA - 2006
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Alternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario: Mapping a Better Energy Future z Analyses impact of government policies under consideration to enhance security & curb emissions z Demonstrates that we can significantly reduce growth in energy demand & emissions and stimulate alternative energy production Oil demand is reduced by 13 mb/d in 2030 - equivalent to
current output of Saudi Arabia & Iran Oil savings in 2015 savings reach 5 mb/d CO2 emissions are 6.3 Gt (16%) lower in 2030 – equivalent to the current emissions of US and Canada
z Delaying action by 10 years would reduce the impact on emissions in 2030 by three-quarters
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
OECD Oil Imports 36 34
mb/d
5.2 mb/d 32
1.8 mb/d
30 28 26 2005
2010
2015
Reference Scenario
2020
2025
2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
In stark contrast with the Reference Scenario, OECD oil imports level off soon after 2015 & then begin to decline © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Global Oil Supply 50%
120 100
mb/d
60 40
40%
OPEC market share
45%
80
20 0
35% 2005
2015
2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
Reduction compared with Reference Scenario
OPEC share in APS (right axis)
OPEC share in RS (right axis)
OPEC’s share of global oil production rises from 40% now to 43% in 2030 in the APS, compared with a jump to 49% in the RS © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Gas Imports, 2004-2030 800 - 90 bcm
bcm
600
400
200
- 46 bcm
- 33 bcm
0 United States 2004
European Union Reference Scenario 2030
Japan
Alternative Policy Scenario 2030
Gas imports in the main consuming regions are significantly lower in the APS compared with the RS © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Key Policies for CO2 Reduction 42 Increased nuclear (10%) Increased renewables (12%) Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)
38 Gt of CO2
Reference Scenario
Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)
34
Alternative Policy Scenario
30
26 2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Improved end-use efficiency accounts for over two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario :
Key policies that Make a Global Difference Energy efficiency US
z Tighter CAFE standards z Improved efficiency in residential & commercial sectors
EU
z Increased vehicle fuel economy z Improved efficiency in electricity use in the commercial sector
China
z Improved efficiency in electricity use in industry z Improved efficiency in electricity use in the residential sector
Power generation z Increased use of renewables z Increased use of renewables z Nuclear plant lifetime extensions z Increased efficiency of coal-fired plants z Increased use of renewables z Increased reliance on nuclear
A dozen policies in the US, EU & China account for around 40% of the global emissions reduction in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario © OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Cost Effectiveness of Policies z Total energy investment – from production to consumption – is lower than in the RS z Consumers spend $2.4 trillion more in 2005-2030 in more efficient cars, refrigerators etc z ..but $3 trillion less investment is required on the supply side ¾ Each $1 invested in more efficient electrical appliances saves
$2.2 in investment in power plants & networks ¾ Each $1 invested in more efficient oil-consuming equipment
(mainly cars) saves $2.4 in oil imports to 2030 z The higher initial investment by consumers is more than offset by fuel-cost savings
© OECD/IEA - 2006
Alternative Policy Scenario:
Investment Payback Periods 9 OECD
8
Non-OECD
7
years
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005-2015
2016-2030
2005-2015
2016-2030
Cars Electrical equipment (refrigerators, washing machines, lighting, air conditioning) Motors in industy
The payback periods of new policies are very short, especially in non-OECD countries for policies introduced before 2015 © OECD/IEA - 2006
Renewed Interest in Nuclear Power z Growing concerns over energy security, surging fossil-fuel prices & rising carbon emissions z Positive aspects of nuclear power proven technology for large-scale baseload electricity
generation reduce dependence on imported gas no emissions of greenhouse gases or local pollutants produces electricity at competitive & stable cost uranium resources abundant & widespread
z But governments need to play a stronger role in facilitating investment where nuclear is accepted © OECD/IEA - 2006
Impact of a 50% Increase in Fuel Price on Generating Costs
increase in generating cost
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Wind
Nuclear
IGCC
Coal steam
CCGT
Nuclear generating costs are far less sensitive to fuel price increases than gas or coal plants © OECD/IEA - 2006
Outlook for Biofuels z Interest in biofuels is soaring z Biofuels can help address growing energy security & climate change threats by: Increasing diversity of geographic & fuel sources Lowering greenhouse-gas emissions - depending on how
they are produced
z Higher oil prices have made biofuels more competitive, but further cost reductions are needed z Availability of arable land will constrain biofuels potential medium term z Long-term prospects hinge on new technology © OECD/IEA - 2006
Share of Biofuels in Road-Transport Fuel Consumption 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% World 2004
United States European Union
2030 Reference Scenario
Brazil
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
Biofuels are set to play a much larger role in meeting world roadtransport fuel demand © OECD/IEA - 2006
Global CO2 Emissions 2003 -2050, Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios Mt CO2 60 000
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
50 000
Other Buildings
40 000
Transport
+21%
30 000
Industry
+27%
Transformation
+6% -16%
20 000
Power Generation
10 000
0 2003
Baseline Baseline 2030 2050
Map
No CCS
Low TECH Plus Efficiency 2050
For a truly sustainable energy system, technological breakthroughs will also be needed © OECD/IEA - 2006
Oil Self-Sufficiency in Brazil
barrels per thousand dollars of GDP*
0.6
Domestic crude production more than triples in the first half of the 1980s
0.5 0.4
Increase in domestic crude production and slowdown in demand growth
0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 1970
Self-sufficiency achieved
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Brazil will remain self-sufficient as long as necessary upstream investments are forthcoming © OECD/IEA - 2006
Summing Up z On current trends, we are on course for an unstable, dirty & expensive energy future z In response, urgent government policy action is required in two key areas: ¾ Promoting energy investment ¾ Promoting energy efficiency z In addition to improving energy security and the environment, these policies also make economic sense z The WEO sets out the essential first steps on a path towards a clean, clever and competitive energy future z For a truly sustainable energy system, technological breakthroughs will also be needed © OECD/IEA - 2006
