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› › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › COMPLETED PROJECT › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › HYDROGEOLOGICAL MODELING AND MODELING OF SALAMANDER POPULATIONS ON COVEY HILL: PROSPECTS FOR HABITAT CONSERVATION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION PROGRAM : ECOBIOCC PROJECT START AND END DATES OCTOBER 2010 • MAY 2013
INFORMATION
Robert Siron [email protected] 514-282-6464 www.ouranos.ca
Photo : David Green, Université McGill
CONTEXT Ecosystems are naturally adaptable to the hazards of climate, but their capacity to adapt could be jeopardized by rapid climate change. Few studies have examined the impacts of climate change on ecosystems at a local scale in the southern Quebec region. However, it is at this scale that some adaptation strategies for the conservation of biodiversity are implemented. Covey Hill is an important recharge zone for the Châteauguay River regional aquifer. It is home to the mountain dusky salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus), a designated threatened species, as well as the spring salamander (Gyrinophilus porphyriticus), a designated vulnerable species. Because salamanders are dependent on groundwater resurgence at various stages of their development, they are particularly sensitive to any factor that may alter the hydrological dynamics of their habitat, and so are good indicators of the nature and extent of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems.
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
Marie Larocque Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)
OTHER PARTICIPANTS ● ● ● ●
Institut de recherche en biologie végétale Musée Redpath, Université McGill Université de Montréal Université Laval
FUNDED BY
OBJECTIVE
www.ouranos.ca
• Use hydrogeological and ecological modeling to develop conservation strategies that will support the resilience of the natural environment of Covey Hill under climate change, particularly in regard to the aquatic habitat of the mountain dusky salamander.
APPROACH
• Develop groundwater flow models so as to 1) understand the water system of the entire Covey Hill sector and 2) quantify the hydrological dynamics of groundwater resurgence that serve as habitat for salamanders. • Develop an ecological model focussing on individuals in order to simulate the life cycle and distribution of stream salamanders. • Combine the hydrogeological and ecological models in order to assess the prospects for the resiliency of the salamanders on Covey Hill under various climate change scenarios. • Formulate recommendations for measures to protect the area against climate change impacts.
REFERENCE
Larocque M. et al. 2013. Modélisation hydrogéologique et modélisation des populations en présence de changements climatiques. Final report for Ouranos. http://www.ouranos.ca/media/publication/173_RapportLarocquesetal2013.pdf
See reverse side for results.
› › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › COMPLETED PROJECT (CONT’D) › › › › › › › › › › › › HYDROGEOLOGICAL MODELING AND MODELING OF SALAMANDER POPULATIONS ON COVEY HILL: PROSPECTS FOR HABITAT CONSERVATION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESULTS According to the hydrogeological models developed for the Covey Hill study, the climate changes projected to occur by 2050 will generate more hydrological activity than was observed in recent past climate (Figure 1.) The results show that under future climate, resurgence discharges will be greater and the number of days of resurgence activity will also increase. The results also indicate that resurgences will be more active during the winter and spring seasons and less active in summer and fall. These expected hydrological changes will create more favorable conditions for the survival and even development of the dusky mountain salamander. The results of the ecological model indicate an increase in its abundance – the number of individuals – as well as a reduced probability of the extinction of this population for the 2041-2070 horizon (Figure 2). However, certain factors, including anthropogenic pressures, that were not included in the models, may counteract the positive impacts of climate change on salamanders. To this end, it is recommended that conservation efforts to maintain the integrity of the ecological and hydrological system at the scale of the hill be continued, in particular by expanding the existing conservation areas to cover all of Covey Hill. Any measure that encourages the infiltration of precipitation and consequent aquifer recharge should also be a priority. These recommendations are transferable to other similar geological and climatic contexts.
Resurgence discharge (m3/s)
Number of day of activity
Abundance (# of individuals)
Seasonal distribution of days of activity (%)
Figure 1. Resurgence discharge in recent climate (reference period 1971-2000) and future climate (future period 2041-2070).
Probability of extinction
Figure 2. Impacts of hydrological changes on the dynamics of salamanders. The activity zone of the resurgence is 4 m2.
BENEFITS FOR ADAPTATION The results of this study:
point out that for the salamanders, it may be more important to monitor anthropogenic activities than climate changes;
illustrate the relevance of a comprehensive approach to land conservation at the local scale;
this approach can be transferred to other environmental and geological contexts.
››››››››››››››››››››››››››››››››
INFORMATION
Robert Siron [email protected] 514-282-6464 www.ouranos.ca
Photo : David Green, Université McGill
CONTEXT Ecosystems are naturally adaptable to the hazards of climate, but their capacity to adapt could be jeopardized by rapid climate change. Few studies have examined the impacts of climate change on ecosystems at a local scale in the southern Quebec region. However, it is at this scale that some adaptation strategies for the conservation of biodiversity are implemented. Covey Hill is an important recharge zone for the Châteauguay River regional aquifer. It is home to the mountain dusky salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus), a designated threatened species, as well as the spring salamander (Gyrinophilus porphyriticus), a designated vulnerable species. Because salamanders are dependent on groundwater resurgence at various stages of their development, they are particularly sensitive to any factor that may alter the hydrological dynamics of their habitat, and so are good indicators of the nature and extent of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems.
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR
Marie Larocque Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)
OTHER PARTICIPANTS ● ● ● ●
Institut de recherche en biologie végétale Musée Redpath, Université McGill Université de Montréal Université Laval
FUNDED BY
OBJECTIVE
www.ouranos.ca
• Use hydrogeological and ecological modeling to develop conservation strategies that will support the resilience of the natural environment of Covey Hill under climate change, particularly in regard to the aquatic habitat of the mountain dusky salamander.
APPROACH
• Develop groundwater flow models so as to 1) understand the water system of the entire Covey Hill sector and 2) quantify the hydrological dynamics of groundwater resurgence that serve as habitat for salamanders. • Develop an ecological model focussing on individuals in order to simulate the life cycle and distribution of stream salamanders. • Combine the hydrogeological and ecological models in order to assess the prospects for the resiliency of the salamanders on Covey Hill under various climate change scenarios. • Formulate recommendations for measures to protect the area against climate change impacts.
REFERENCE
Larocque M. et al. 2013. Modélisation hydrogéologique et modélisation des populations en présence de changements climatiques. Final report for Ouranos. http://www.ouranos.ca/media/publication/173_RapportLarocquesetal2013.pdf
See reverse side for results.
› › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › › COMPLETED PROJECT (CONT’D) › › › › › › › › › › › › HYDROGEOLOGICAL MODELING AND MODELING OF SALAMANDER POPULATIONS ON COVEY HILL: PROSPECTS FOR HABITAT CONSERVATION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESULTS According to the hydrogeological models developed for the Covey Hill study, the climate changes projected to occur by 2050 will generate more hydrological activity than was observed in recent past climate (Figure 1.) The results show that under future climate, resurgence discharges will be greater and the number of days of resurgence activity will also increase. The results also indicate that resurgences will be more active during the winter and spring seasons and less active in summer and fall. These expected hydrological changes will create more favorable conditions for the survival and even development of the dusky mountain salamander. The results of the ecological model indicate an increase in its abundance – the number of individuals – as well as a reduced probability of the extinction of this population for the 2041-2070 horizon (Figure 2). However, certain factors, including anthropogenic pressures, that were not included in the models, may counteract the positive impacts of climate change on salamanders. To this end, it is recommended that conservation efforts to maintain the integrity of the ecological and hydrological system at the scale of the hill be continued, in particular by expanding the existing conservation areas to cover all of Covey Hill. Any measure that encourages the infiltration of precipitation and consequent aquifer recharge should also be a priority. These recommendations are transferable to other similar geological and climatic contexts.
Resurgence discharge (m3/s)
Number of day of activity
Abundance (# of individuals)
Seasonal distribution of days of activity (%)
Figure 1. Resurgence discharge in recent climate (reference period 1971-2000) and future climate (future period 2041-2070).
Probability of extinction
Figure 2. Impacts of hydrological changes on the dynamics of salamanders. The activity zone of the resurgence is 4 m2.
BENEFITS FOR ADAPTATION The results of this study:
point out that for the salamanders, it may be more important to monitor anthropogenic activities than climate changes;
illustrate the relevance of a comprehensive approach to land conservation at the local scale;
this approach can be transferred to other environmental and geological contexts.
››››››››››››››››››››››››››››››››
