Yasso07 soil carbon model
Yasso07 soil carbon model
Jari Liski, Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Seminar on Yasso07 soil carbon model, May 17, 2011
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Outline of the presentation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Development of Yasso07 Yasso07 model Validity tests of Yasso07 Applications of Yasso07 Further development of Yasso07
2
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Basic ideas of Yasso07 development ● ● ● ● ● ●
As many data as possible Advanced mathematics Uncertainty estimates Transparency Scientific documentation Public availability
3
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Development steps of Yasso07 ● Earlier Yasso model • Liski et al. 2005. Ecol. Modelling
● Temperature dependence of decomposition • Tuomi et al. 2008. Ecol. Modelling
● Leaf litter decomposition • Tuomi et al. 2009. Ecol. Modelling
● Other non-woody (fine root) litter decomposition ● Woody litter decomposition • Tuomi et al. 2010. Ecol. Modelling
● User-interface software • Tuomi et al. 2011. Env. Modelling and Software
4
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Data used to develop Yasso07 ● Decomposition of non-woody litter (n=10 000) ○ Foliage and fine roots, 37 litter types ○ Time series up to 10 years ○ Global climate conditions ● Decomposition of woody litter (n=2000) ○ Branches, snags and logs, diameter 0.5 to 60 cm, 4 tree species ○ Time series up to 70 years ○ Boreal climate conditions ● Soil carbon stock ○ Accumulation of carbon along a 5500 year soil chronosequence in Finland (n=26) ○ Forest sites in Finland (n=60) ○ Worldwide soil carbon dataset (n=4000) 5
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Non-woody litter decomposition data
6 LIDET working group (Harmon et al.), CIDET working group (Trofymow et al.), EuroDeco (Berg et al.)
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Worldwide soil organic carbon data
7 Zinke et al. 1986. Oak Ridge National Laboratories.
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Flow diagram of Yasso07 ● Model structure follows from explicit assumptions ● Alternative details compared using Bayesian criteria ● Fluxes between the pools estimated from data
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
8
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Parameter values of Yasso07 ● Markov chain Monte Carlo -> uncertainty estimates ● Decomposition rates (5) ● Carbon fluxes between the pools (13) ● Climate effects (3) ● Woody litter decomposition (3) ● Litter bag adjustment (2)
9
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Climate dependence of decomposition rates in Yasso07 ● Multiplier of decomposition rates as a function of ○ Temperatur e (-10 to 30 C) ○ Precipitatio n (0, 0.5, 1,…, 4 m)
10
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Input and output of Yasso07 ●
Input ○ Carbon input to soil • • •
○
CO2
Climate • • •
●
Quantity Chemical quality Diameter of woody litter
CO2
Temperature Precipitation Annually or monthly
CO2
Output ○ Variables • • •
○
Soil carbon stock Change in soil carbon stock, Carbon flux out of soil
Mean estimate and uncertainty
CO2
CO2
11
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Availability and information of Yasso07 at www.environment.fi/syke/yasso ● User-interface software ● Fortran code, R code ● Scientific papers ● Other documents ● Projects ● Contact information
12
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Visits on the download pages of the Yasso07 user-interface software
13
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Validity tests of Yasso07 Examples ● Worldwide ○ Soil carbon data (Thum et al. 2011, Tuomi et al. 2011) ○ Carbon flux data from some forest and grassland sites (Thum et al. 2011) ● National ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data in Sweden (Ortiz et al. 2009, manuscript) ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data in Finland (BioSoil) (Miitta Rantakari presentation) ● Site-scale ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data at afforestation and deforestation sites in Finland (Karhu et al. manuscript) ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data from an agricultural experiment in Sweden (Karhu et al. Manuscript) ○ Soil carbon and respiration data in Switzerland (Rühr & Eugster 2009) ○ Litter decomposition data from Benin (Sabin Guendehou presentation) 14
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Comparison of soil carbon estimates worldwide Yasso07/ECHAM - grey, measurement - black, n=3411 Precipitation: 1 m
15 Thum et al. 2011. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Tuomi et al. 2011. Environmental Modelling and Software.
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Comparison of soil carbon estimates for Swedish forests Soil carbon stock – left, soil carbon stock change – right Repeated inventory – black, Yasso07 – red
16 Ortiz et al. 2009. SMED Report. Ortiz et al. Manuscript.
● 35 year study period from 1956 to 1991 ● Treatments ○ Fallow ○ Crop only ○ Crop + N ○ Straw ○ Straw + N ○ Green manure ○ FYM ○ Peat + N ● Simulated using the Yasso07 user-interface software
1500
Yasso07 estimate (kg ha‐1 yr‐1)
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Soil carbon changes in a Swedish agricultural experiment
1000
500
0
‐500 ‐500
0
500
1000
1500
Measured (kg ha‐1 yr‐1)
17 Karhu et al. manuscript
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Applications of Yasso07 ● ● ● ● ● ●
Greenhouse gas inventory systems Earth System Modelling Soil carbon research Forestry research Bioenergy research Teaching
18
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Further development ongoing ● Robustness studies ○ Different parameterization data ● Climate dependence of decomposition ○ Temperature and moisture effects ○ Fractions of litter and soil organic carbon ● Humus dynamics ○ Formation, stabilization, destabilization ● Woody litter decomposition ● Agricultural soils ● Nitrogen ○ Effects on decomposition ○ Modelling nitrogen cycling ● Input data ○ Litter chemical fractions 19
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Acknowledgements ● ● ● ●
Contributors Data providers Users Other colleagues ● Funding organizations
20 Photo: Mikko Peltoniemi
Jari Liski, Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Seminar on Yasso07 soil carbon model, May 17, 2011
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Outline of the presentation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Development of Yasso07 Yasso07 model Validity tests of Yasso07 Applications of Yasso07 Further development of Yasso07
2
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Basic ideas of Yasso07 development ● ● ● ● ● ●
As many data as possible Advanced mathematics Uncertainty estimates Transparency Scientific documentation Public availability
3
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Development steps of Yasso07 ● Earlier Yasso model • Liski et al. 2005. Ecol. Modelling
● Temperature dependence of decomposition • Tuomi et al. 2008. Ecol. Modelling
● Leaf litter decomposition • Tuomi et al. 2009. Ecol. Modelling
● Other non-woody (fine root) litter decomposition ● Woody litter decomposition • Tuomi et al. 2010. Ecol. Modelling
● User-interface software • Tuomi et al. 2011. Env. Modelling and Software
4
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Data used to develop Yasso07 ● Decomposition of non-woody litter (n=10 000) ○ Foliage and fine roots, 37 litter types ○ Time series up to 10 years ○ Global climate conditions ● Decomposition of woody litter (n=2000) ○ Branches, snags and logs, diameter 0.5 to 60 cm, 4 tree species ○ Time series up to 70 years ○ Boreal climate conditions ● Soil carbon stock ○ Accumulation of carbon along a 5500 year soil chronosequence in Finland (n=26) ○ Forest sites in Finland (n=60) ○ Worldwide soil carbon dataset (n=4000) 5
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Non-woody litter decomposition data
6 LIDET working group (Harmon et al.), CIDET working group (Trofymow et al.), EuroDeco (Berg et al.)
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Worldwide soil organic carbon data
7 Zinke et al. 1986. Oak Ridge National Laboratories.
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Flow diagram of Yasso07 ● Model structure follows from explicit assumptions ● Alternative details compared using Bayesian criteria ● Fluxes between the pools estimated from data
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
8
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Parameter values of Yasso07 ● Markov chain Monte Carlo -> uncertainty estimates ● Decomposition rates (5) ● Carbon fluxes between the pools (13) ● Climate effects (3) ● Woody litter decomposition (3) ● Litter bag adjustment (2)
9
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Climate dependence of decomposition rates in Yasso07 ● Multiplier of decomposition rates as a function of ○ Temperatur e (-10 to 30 C) ○ Precipitatio n (0, 0.5, 1,…, 4 m)
10
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Input and output of Yasso07 ●
Input ○ Carbon input to soil • • •
○
CO2
Climate • • •
●
Quantity Chemical quality Diameter of woody litter
CO2
Temperature Precipitation Annually or monthly
CO2
Output ○ Variables • • •
○
Soil carbon stock Change in soil carbon stock, Carbon flux out of soil
Mean estimate and uncertainty
CO2
CO2
11
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Availability and information of Yasso07 at www.environment.fi/syke/yasso ● User-interface software ● Fortran code, R code ● Scientific papers ● Other documents ● Projects ● Contact information
12
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Visits on the download pages of the Yasso07 user-interface software
13
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Validity tests of Yasso07 Examples ● Worldwide ○ Soil carbon data (Thum et al. 2011, Tuomi et al. 2011) ○ Carbon flux data from some forest and grassland sites (Thum et al. 2011) ● National ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data in Sweden (Ortiz et al. 2009, manuscript) ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data in Finland (BioSoil) (Miitta Rantakari presentation) ● Site-scale ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data at afforestation and deforestation sites in Finland (Karhu et al. manuscript) ○ Soil carbon stock and stock change data from an agricultural experiment in Sweden (Karhu et al. Manuscript) ○ Soil carbon and respiration data in Switzerland (Rühr & Eugster 2009) ○ Litter decomposition data from Benin (Sabin Guendehou presentation) 14
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Comparison of soil carbon estimates worldwide Yasso07/ECHAM - grey, measurement - black, n=3411 Precipitation: 1 m
15 Thum et al. 2011. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences, Tuomi et al. 2011. Environmental Modelling and Software.
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Comparison of soil carbon estimates for Swedish forests Soil carbon stock – left, soil carbon stock change – right Repeated inventory – black, Yasso07 – red
16 Ortiz et al. 2009. SMED Report. Ortiz et al. Manuscript.
● 35 year study period from 1956 to 1991 ● Treatments ○ Fallow ○ Crop only ○ Crop + N ○ Straw ○ Straw + N ○ Green manure ○ FYM ○ Peat + N ● Simulated using the Yasso07 user-interface software
1500
Yasso07 estimate (kg ha‐1 yr‐1)
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Soil carbon changes in a Swedish agricultural experiment
1000
500
0
‐500 ‐500
0
500
1000
1500
Measured (kg ha‐1 yr‐1)
17 Karhu et al. manuscript
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Applications of Yasso07 ● ● ● ● ● ●
Greenhouse gas inventory systems Earth System Modelling Soil carbon research Forestry research Bioenergy research Teaching
18
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Further development ongoing ● Robustness studies ○ Different parameterization data ● Climate dependence of decomposition ○ Temperature and moisture effects ○ Fractions of litter and soil organic carbon ● Humus dynamics ○ Formation, stabilization, destabilization ● Woody litter decomposition ● Agricultural soils ● Nitrogen ○ Effects on decomposition ○ Modelling nitrogen cycling ● Input data ○ Litter chemical fractions 19
19.5.2011 Jari Liski, SYKE
Acknowledgements ● ● ● ●
Contributors Data providers Users Other colleagues ● Funding organizations
20 Photo: Mikko Peltoniemi
