1273049214 681
UK Trends in Microgeneration Adoption Robert Harper Sustainable Technology Manager
Microgeneration, a Global Perspective The fastest growing energy technology Global in the world is grid-connected solar PV, with 50% annual increases in cumulative installed capacity in both 2006 and 2007, to an estimated 7.7 GWe. Rooftop solar thermal collecting capacity increased by 19% in 2006 to reach a level of 105 GWth globally. Biomass and geothermal energy are now commonly employed for both power and heating, with recent increases in a number of developed countries. Mandates for incorporating microgeneration into new construction represent a strong and growing trend at both national and local levels. 2
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
1.5 million homes have rooftop solar PV feeding into the grid worldwide. Rooftop solar thermal collectors provide hot water to nearly 50 million households worldwide. There are more than 2 million ground-source heat pumps in use across 30 countries providing building heating and cooling. Source: [Renewables-Global Report, www.REN21.net]
Microgeneration, a Global Perspective Geothermal direct-heat utilisation is growing much faster than geothermal power, with recent growth rates of 3040% annually. This trend will accelerate with the commercialisation of air source heating units, and combined HVAC systems for residential markets.
Global Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity, 2002-2006 Biomas s heating Geothermal power Biomass power Large hydropower Small hydropower Ethanol (annual production) Solar hot water/heating Solar PV, off-grid Geothermal heating
The largest country shares of renewable annual investment were in Germany, China, USA, Spain, Japan and India. Investment in Germany increased to over $14 billion in 2007, mostly in wind and solar PV, and investment in China was $12 billion, mostly in small hydropower and solar thermal systems.
Wind power Biodiesel (annual production) Solar PV, grid-connected
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Global renewable energy capacity grew at rates of 1530% annually for many technologies during the fiveyear period 2002-2006. The growth of grid-connected solar PV eclipsed all of these, with a 60% average growth rate. All technologies in light blue are predominantly microgeneration systems.
Source: [Renewables-Global Report, www.REN21.net]
3
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
UK Microgen Industry, Reality or Rhetoric? Not All Technologies Commercial
Slow Growth… 120,000
100,000 Fuel Cells dCHP
80,000
Solar PV Biomass GSHP
60,000
Hydro Wind
40,000
Solar Hot Water
20,000 Wind
Hydro
GSHP
Biomass
Solar Hot Water
Solar PV
dCHP
Fuel Cells
0 2005
2006
2007
Microgeneration growth in the UK has been slow despite introduction of various government measures
Solar thermal is the only technology with a mature supply chain
Certain technologies still very much cottage industries; only several hundred systems installed every year
4
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Limited growth (exc SHW) has been driven by government capital grant incentives, a blunt policy instrument
What are the challenges? Scale, 15% Renewables by 2020 Cost-effectiveness, commercial viability with other industries
Renewables Directive – Proposed National Targets
5
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Commercial Drivers – Political & Environmental DTI Microgeneration Strategy (Mar ’06)
HMG Energy Review (Jul ’06)
Option to have target
Demand-side options
Research into behaviour
2020 statement on EE
Support for £80m LCBP
Fiscal incentives
Planning & Energy Bill (May 2007)
Allows LA to set higher EE ratings than B.Regs Merton Rule commitment April ’07, microgeneration in PDR
Link Ofgem & ENSG Identify non-tech barriers
2006
2007
CC&SE Act 2006 (Jun ’06)
6
2008
RAB Zero Carbon Homes (2007)
2009
2010
Suppliers Obligation Post 2011
Changed EEC to CERT
CSH 4-6 growth forecast
Future of CERT
Obligation for export £
Strong PV outcome
ESCO options
Fuel poverty alleviation
Need for fiscal incentives
Promotion of microgen
B.Reg changes in 2010
GHG reduction targets
Gearing-up period
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
£
Hybrid options Develop energy services CO2 targets
Commercial Drivers – Economic HMT 2006 Budget
HMT 2007 Budget
VAT reduction 5%
Feed-In Tariff consultation
Tax exempt earning on export reward and RO payments for electricity
LCBP funding £80m ECA for B2B microgen
Significant debate Step change in support Cost recovery?
0% VAT on self-build housing for microgen
Fiscal support level p/kWh Strong NGO / Tory support
2006
2007
2009
2010
BERR 2020 Renewable Energy Strategy
Stern Review (Oct 2006)
CC represent real economic risk
32% of bulk electricity from renewables. Massive growth
10% impact in the future, 1% GDP impact now
Introduction of renewable heat and transport
Engages money-men
Significant drive for on-site generation in built environment
Significant stakeholder
7
2008
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Commercial Drivers – Social Day After Tomorrow (2004)
Power to the People (Feb ’06)
Mainstream movie
FT economic editor
Impact of climate change
Discusses decentralised generation in terms of security of supply
Discussion of Carbon emissions
2004
2005
Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth (Jun ’06)
Mass media fall out for climate change awareness High level of consumer reaction Significant stakeholder impact
RWE npower, RWE Group
Strong consumer messages on green in all sectors Sustainability is the key commercial word, M&S Plan A
Raises the question of bias towards large scale generation
Raises CC profile
8
npower Retail Position on Green (Nov ’07)
26.11.08
2006
FPAG Annual Report (2007)
It remains the case that the only sustainable way to end fuel poverty is through energy efficiency Includes microgeneration
Green is now main business, not just CSR
2007
2008
BERR Defra Fuel Poverty Strategy (2007)
The low Carbon buildings programme is hoping to attract bids from social housing providers seeking to install microgeneration
Commercial Drivers – Technology CLG Changes to PDR
Net Zero New Build (2010)
All on roof solutions of less than 200mm above roof surface to be PDR, exceptions of listed buildings and areas of outstanding natural beauty
2007
2010
Net Zero New Build (2014)
25% of new builds should comply with CSH level 6, net zero carbon
100% of total new builds should comply with CSH level 6, net zero carbon
Eco-towns begin roll-out across UK. 8 tests sites across England & Wales
Potential for off-setting options in non-conducive conditions e.g. urban
2012
2014
2016
Net Zero New Build (2014)
60% of new builds should comply with CSH level 6, net zero carbon 100% CSH Level 6 for SH/HA
9
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
( In s ta lla tio n s ) T h o u s a n d s
Market forecasts 6,000 High growth scenario
2020 RES Targets
Current Growth Scenario 5,000
Low growth scenario
4,000
Double banded ROCs
3,000
Introduction of FIT?
2020 RES consultation
2,000
Introduction of CSH level 6
1,000
0 2005
10
2006
2007
RWE npower, RWE Group
2008
2009
26.11.08
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Model Description
Stakeholder forecast
Apply Logistic growth model
Understand split of technologie s
Determine Key milestones
Breakdown by technology
Determine Milestones
Millions
1.34% 6.44%
7.20%
Hydr o
Technology Breakdown 2008- 2050
Win d GSHP Sola r PV
23.46%
0.01%
Calculate technology Outputs
35
Total Installations
30
ASHP Fuel Cell s
0.80%
Calculate technology breakdown s
UK Market 2008 – 2050
Technology breakdow n 2050
13.57%
Calculate S curve
Sola r Ther mal Bio mass dCHP
25
13.40%
33.78%
A SHP
Bi omas s
dCHP
Fuel Cel ls
Hydro
Solar Thermal
Sol ar PV
Wind
GSHP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 201 9 20 20 2021 2022 2023 20 24 20 25
20
Calculate Outputs
15
Apply Growth Multiplier
= t2 xn = t2/t1 x = n√t2/t1
kWp, kWh, £s, tCO2 T hou san ds
t1
xn
180 Forecast 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Forecast)
140 120
5
100 80 60 40
0
20 0 20
11
10
Total Wind Install ations
160
05
20
06
20
07
RWE npower, RWE Group
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
26.11.08
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
05 007 009 011 013 015 017 019 021 023 025 027 029 031 033 035 037 039 041 043 045 047 049 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
J1
npower Forecast Model Microgeneration Market Adoption Model (MMAM) Te chnology Br eak down 2008 - 2050
Hydro Wind GSHP
2020 RES Targets
Solar PV ASHP Fuel Cells Solar Thermal Biomass dCHP
Introduction of FITs
Introduction of CSH Level 6
Actual figures
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Primary Assumptions:
npower growth model based on logistic ‘S’ growth curve model Introduction of Code for Sustainable Homes Level 6 signals beginning of significant growth for microgeneration. 12
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Slide 12 J1
Alpha model used JAMEC03, 20/08/2008
Model Breakdown: Power Technologies Hydro
Wind Thousands
Total Hydr o installation volumes
800 700
Electricity technologies Growth in solar PV not expected to ‘takeoff’ until post 2011
Total Wind installation volumes
180 160 140
600
120
Cost remains significant barrier to growth
500
100 400
80 300
Current legislation will not be enough to transform and grow the market
60
200
40
100
20
0
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2009
7
2008
00
2007
0
2
Solar PV
Wind will not see high volumes anticipated by BWEA:
Total PV installation volumes
1,800
Solar PV is expected to be a technology of the masses but generate less than wind
1,600 1,400
High volume micro-wind still encountering problems;
1,200 1,000 800 600
Growth seen in larger (10kWp+) systems, but;
400 200
Installations (Stock) Solar PV Hydro Wind
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2010 2020 7,297 1,525,000 134 500 2,916 132,610
2030 1,586,992 855 191,604
2040 1,651,505 1,462 276,842
2050 1,718,640 2,500 400,000
Planning still remains an issue Hydro will always remain a fringe technology and growth will be negligible However, significant potential for hydro – more than 20,000 water mill sites
13
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Model Breakdown: Heat Technologies Fuel Cells
Total ASHP installation volumes
250
Th ou s a nd s
Thousands
ASHP 200
Heat technologies Heat pumps will see anticipated growth levels:
Total Fuel Cell installation volumes
18 16 14 12
Requirement for on-site generation
150
10 8
100
Match with heating systems
6 4
50
Electricity prices
2 0
0 07 20
09 20
11 20
13 20
15 20
17 20
19 20
21 20
23 20
07 0 8 09 1 0 11 12 1 3 14 1 5 16 17 1 8 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 20 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
25 20
dCHP
Solar Thermal
Total dCHP installation volumes Thousands
3,500 3,000
Total Solar thermal installation volumes
2,500
Main growth of heat technologies expected dCHP:
2,000
2,500 1,500
2,000 1,500
Fuel cells will also not see anticipated volumes- technology not yet commercially viable
Take share of boiler replacement market
1,000
1,000 500
500 0
0
07 0 8 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 7 18 19 2 0 21 2 2 23 24 25 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0
Installations (Stock) ASHP GSHP Biomass Fuell Cells dCHP Solar Thermal
14
07 20
09 20
11 20
13 20
15 20
17 20
19 20
21 20
23 20
25 20
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 595 139,000 333,540 800,351 1,920,497 7,565 60,000 95,242 151,185 239,986 74,287 3,200,000 4,153,995 5,392,399 7,000,000 21 5,000 46,416 430,887 4,000,000 4,063 2,400,000 3,872,154 6,247,324 10,079,416 162,740 1,705,000 2,275,054 3,035,702 4,050,667
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
twin generation – Efficiency gains Skill set already available within workforce Solar thermal will see significant growth but not expected to meet previous forecast expectations
Conclusions Difficult to forecast where the microgeneration industry is headed: – significant growth in the sector is expected, although – current economic climate introduces considerable risk to planning.
Problem is that growth is dependent on government legislation: – not all technologies are commercially viable, – significant investment in the supply-side is needed.
The industry needs to deliver on Government’s expectations: – whether or not the industry will generate the environmental and commercial savings expected, is yet to be decided
15
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Microgeneration, a Global Perspective The fastest growing energy technology Global in the world is grid-connected solar PV, with 50% annual increases in cumulative installed capacity in both 2006 and 2007, to an estimated 7.7 GWe. Rooftop solar thermal collecting capacity increased by 19% in 2006 to reach a level of 105 GWth globally. Biomass and geothermal energy are now commonly employed for both power and heating, with recent increases in a number of developed countries. Mandates for incorporating microgeneration into new construction represent a strong and growing trend at both national and local levels. 2
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
1.5 million homes have rooftop solar PV feeding into the grid worldwide. Rooftop solar thermal collectors provide hot water to nearly 50 million households worldwide. There are more than 2 million ground-source heat pumps in use across 30 countries providing building heating and cooling. Source: [Renewables-Global Report, www.REN21.net]
Microgeneration, a Global Perspective Geothermal direct-heat utilisation is growing much faster than geothermal power, with recent growth rates of 3040% annually. This trend will accelerate with the commercialisation of air source heating units, and combined HVAC systems for residential markets.
Global Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity, 2002-2006 Biomas s heating Geothermal power Biomass power Large hydropower Small hydropower Ethanol (annual production) Solar hot water/heating Solar PV, off-grid Geothermal heating
The largest country shares of renewable annual investment were in Germany, China, USA, Spain, Japan and India. Investment in Germany increased to over $14 billion in 2007, mostly in wind and solar PV, and investment in China was $12 billion, mostly in small hydropower and solar thermal systems.
Wind power Biodiesel (annual production) Solar PV, grid-connected
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Global renewable energy capacity grew at rates of 1530% annually for many technologies during the fiveyear period 2002-2006. The growth of grid-connected solar PV eclipsed all of these, with a 60% average growth rate. All technologies in light blue are predominantly microgeneration systems.
Source: [Renewables-Global Report, www.REN21.net]
3
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
UK Microgen Industry, Reality or Rhetoric? Not All Technologies Commercial
Slow Growth… 120,000
100,000 Fuel Cells dCHP
80,000
Solar PV Biomass GSHP
60,000
Hydro Wind
40,000
Solar Hot Water
20,000 Wind
Hydro
GSHP
Biomass
Solar Hot Water
Solar PV
dCHP
Fuel Cells
0 2005
2006
2007
Microgeneration growth in the UK has been slow despite introduction of various government measures
Solar thermal is the only technology with a mature supply chain
Certain technologies still very much cottage industries; only several hundred systems installed every year
4
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Limited growth (exc SHW) has been driven by government capital grant incentives, a blunt policy instrument
What are the challenges? Scale, 15% Renewables by 2020 Cost-effectiveness, commercial viability with other industries
Renewables Directive – Proposed National Targets
5
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Commercial Drivers – Political & Environmental DTI Microgeneration Strategy (Mar ’06)
HMG Energy Review (Jul ’06)
Option to have target
Demand-side options
Research into behaviour
2020 statement on EE
Support for £80m LCBP
Fiscal incentives
Planning & Energy Bill (May 2007)
Allows LA to set higher EE ratings than B.Regs Merton Rule commitment April ’07, microgeneration in PDR
Link Ofgem & ENSG Identify non-tech barriers
2006
2007
CC&SE Act 2006 (Jun ’06)
6
2008
RAB Zero Carbon Homes (2007)
2009
2010
Suppliers Obligation Post 2011
Changed EEC to CERT
CSH 4-6 growth forecast
Future of CERT
Obligation for export £
Strong PV outcome
ESCO options
Fuel poverty alleviation
Need for fiscal incentives
Promotion of microgen
B.Reg changes in 2010
GHG reduction targets
Gearing-up period
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
£
Hybrid options Develop energy services CO2 targets
Commercial Drivers – Economic HMT 2006 Budget
HMT 2007 Budget
VAT reduction 5%
Feed-In Tariff consultation
Tax exempt earning on export reward and RO payments for electricity
LCBP funding £80m ECA for B2B microgen
Significant debate Step change in support Cost recovery?
0% VAT on self-build housing for microgen
Fiscal support level p/kWh Strong NGO / Tory support
2006
2007
2009
2010
BERR 2020 Renewable Energy Strategy
Stern Review (Oct 2006)
CC represent real economic risk
32% of bulk electricity from renewables. Massive growth
10% impact in the future, 1% GDP impact now
Introduction of renewable heat and transport
Engages money-men
Significant drive for on-site generation in built environment
Significant stakeholder
7
2008
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Commercial Drivers – Social Day After Tomorrow (2004)
Power to the People (Feb ’06)
Mainstream movie
FT economic editor
Impact of climate change
Discusses decentralised generation in terms of security of supply
Discussion of Carbon emissions
2004
2005
Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth (Jun ’06)
Mass media fall out for climate change awareness High level of consumer reaction Significant stakeholder impact
RWE npower, RWE Group
Strong consumer messages on green in all sectors Sustainability is the key commercial word, M&S Plan A
Raises the question of bias towards large scale generation
Raises CC profile
8
npower Retail Position on Green (Nov ’07)
26.11.08
2006
FPAG Annual Report (2007)
It remains the case that the only sustainable way to end fuel poverty is through energy efficiency Includes microgeneration
Green is now main business, not just CSR
2007
2008
BERR Defra Fuel Poverty Strategy (2007)
The low Carbon buildings programme is hoping to attract bids from social housing providers seeking to install microgeneration
Commercial Drivers – Technology CLG Changes to PDR
Net Zero New Build (2010)
All on roof solutions of less than 200mm above roof surface to be PDR, exceptions of listed buildings and areas of outstanding natural beauty
2007
2010
Net Zero New Build (2014)
25% of new builds should comply with CSH level 6, net zero carbon
100% of total new builds should comply with CSH level 6, net zero carbon
Eco-towns begin roll-out across UK. 8 tests sites across England & Wales
Potential for off-setting options in non-conducive conditions e.g. urban
2012
2014
2016
Net Zero New Build (2014)
60% of new builds should comply with CSH level 6, net zero carbon 100% CSH Level 6 for SH/HA
9
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
( In s ta lla tio n s ) T h o u s a n d s
Market forecasts 6,000 High growth scenario
2020 RES Targets
Current Growth Scenario 5,000
Low growth scenario
4,000
Double banded ROCs
3,000
Introduction of FIT?
2020 RES consultation
2,000
Introduction of CSH level 6
1,000
0 2005
10
2006
2007
RWE npower, RWE Group
2008
2009
26.11.08
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Model Description
Stakeholder forecast
Apply Logistic growth model
Understand split of technologie s
Determine Key milestones
Breakdown by technology
Determine Milestones
Millions
1.34% 6.44%
7.20%
Hydr o
Technology Breakdown 2008- 2050
Win d GSHP Sola r PV
23.46%
0.01%
Calculate technology Outputs
35
Total Installations
30
ASHP Fuel Cell s
0.80%
Calculate technology breakdown s
UK Market 2008 – 2050
Technology breakdow n 2050
13.57%
Calculate S curve
Sola r Ther mal Bio mass dCHP
25
13.40%
33.78%
A SHP
Bi omas s
dCHP
Fuel Cel ls
Hydro
Solar Thermal
Sol ar PV
Wind
GSHP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 201 9 20 20 2021 2022 2023 20 24 20 25
20
Calculate Outputs
15
Apply Growth Multiplier
= t2 xn = t2/t1 x = n√t2/t1
kWp, kWh, £s, tCO2 T hou san ds
t1
xn
180 Forecast 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Forecast)
140 120
5
100 80 60 40
0
20 0 20
11
10
Total Wind Install ations
160
05
20
06
20
07
RWE npower, RWE Group
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
26.11.08
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
05 007 009 011 013 015 017 019 021 023 025 027 029 031 033 035 037 039 041 043 045 047 049 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
J1
npower Forecast Model Microgeneration Market Adoption Model (MMAM) Te chnology Br eak down 2008 - 2050
Hydro Wind GSHP
2020 RES Targets
Solar PV ASHP Fuel Cells Solar Thermal Biomass dCHP
Introduction of FITs
Introduction of CSH Level 6
Actual figures
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Primary Assumptions:
npower growth model based on logistic ‘S’ growth curve model Introduction of Code for Sustainable Homes Level 6 signals beginning of significant growth for microgeneration. 12
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Slide 12 J1
Alpha model used JAMEC03, 20/08/2008
Model Breakdown: Power Technologies Hydro
Wind Thousands
Total Hydr o installation volumes
800 700
Electricity technologies Growth in solar PV not expected to ‘takeoff’ until post 2011
Total Wind installation volumes
180 160 140
600
120
Cost remains significant barrier to growth
500
100 400
80 300
Current legislation will not be enough to transform and grow the market
60
200
40
100
20
0
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 00 00 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2009
7
2008
00
2007
0
2
Solar PV
Wind will not see high volumes anticipated by BWEA:
Total PV installation volumes
1,800
Solar PV is expected to be a technology of the masses but generate less than wind
1,600 1,400
High volume micro-wind still encountering problems;
1,200 1,000 800 600
Growth seen in larger (10kWp+) systems, but;
400 200
Installations (Stock) Solar PV Hydro Wind
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2010 2020 7,297 1,525,000 134 500 2,916 132,610
2030 1,586,992 855 191,604
2040 1,651,505 1,462 276,842
2050 1,718,640 2,500 400,000
Planning still remains an issue Hydro will always remain a fringe technology and growth will be negligible However, significant potential for hydro – more than 20,000 water mill sites
13
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
Model Breakdown: Heat Technologies Fuel Cells
Total ASHP installation volumes
250
Th ou s a nd s
Thousands
ASHP 200
Heat technologies Heat pumps will see anticipated growth levels:
Total Fuel Cell installation volumes
18 16 14 12
Requirement for on-site generation
150
10 8
100
Match with heating systems
6 4
50
Electricity prices
2 0
0 07 20
09 20
11 20
13 20
15 20
17 20
19 20
21 20
23 20
07 0 8 09 1 0 11 12 1 3 14 1 5 16 17 1 8 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 20 2 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
25 20
dCHP
Solar Thermal
Total dCHP installation volumes Thousands
3,500 3,000
Total Solar thermal installation volumes
2,500
Main growth of heat technologies expected dCHP:
2,000
2,500 1,500
2,000 1,500
Fuel cells will also not see anticipated volumes- technology not yet commercially viable
Take share of boiler replacement market
1,000
1,000 500
500 0
0
07 0 8 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 7 18 19 2 0 21 2 2 23 24 25 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0 20 2 0 20 20 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 20 2 0
Installations (Stock) ASHP GSHP Biomass Fuell Cells dCHP Solar Thermal
14
07 20
09 20
11 20
13 20
15 20
17 20
19 20
21 20
23 20
25 20
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 595 139,000 333,540 800,351 1,920,497 7,565 60,000 95,242 151,185 239,986 74,287 3,200,000 4,153,995 5,392,399 7,000,000 21 5,000 46,416 430,887 4,000,000 4,063 2,400,000 3,872,154 6,247,324 10,079,416 162,740 1,705,000 2,275,054 3,035,702 4,050,667
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
twin generation – Efficiency gains Skill set already available within workforce Solar thermal will see significant growth but not expected to meet previous forecast expectations
Conclusions Difficult to forecast where the microgeneration industry is headed: – significant growth in the sector is expected, although – current economic climate introduces considerable risk to planning.
Problem is that growth is dependent on government legislation: – not all technologies are commercially viable, – significant investment in the supply-side is needed.
The industry needs to deliver on Government’s expectations: – whether or not the industry will generate the environmental and commercial savings expected, is yet to be decided
15
RWE npower, RWE Group
26.11.08
